T-Rock 12/17/24 T-Rock 12/17/24

Week 16 Waiver Targets

The South Harmon Agency has more high-tier operatives gathering intel than ever before. Be sure to keep your channel open and collect data from the various sources as it comes in. In terms of FAAB bidding, review your league’s previous waiver behavior to navigate the wire best. The waiver wire will become more bare as the season continues, especially in best ball formats.

Waiver Targets

ReDraft (most of these players will be rostered in Dynasty leagues)

Jerome Ford- 42% rostership, spend 100% FAAB (With our all-time favorite Brownie Nick Chubb missing the ROS with a broken foot, Jerome Ford becomes the priority add of week 16. Jerome is a solid FLEX option with RB 2 upside when starting for Cleveland. He had his best game of the season with 84 yards and 1 TD on the ground with an additional 20 yards through the air, catapulting him to the RB8 in week 15. Empty all you have left in FAAB to acquire Ford if he’s available.)
Brenton Strange - 7% rostership, 40-50% FAAB (The injuries continue with Evan Engram suffering a torn labrum and being placed on IR. Luckily for Jacksonville, they have one of the best backup TEs in the league, Brenton Strange. In his 5 starts for the Jaguars, Strange finished as the TE9, TE7, TE27, TE9, and TE4, averaging 6 targets, 4.6 catches, and 38.6 yards. Drawing a matchup versus the lowly Raiders, expect Strange to keep playing as a TE1 as the #2 target for his offense.)
Cooper Rush - 11% rostership, spend 40-50% FAAB (Cooper Rush has been one of the top streaming options at QB this season. He has finished as the QB18 or better in 4 of the last 5 weeks and as a top QB in 2 matchups over the same span. The Buccaneers are an ideal matchup for the Cowboys in week 16 with their high-octane offense and sieve of a passing defense. At only 11% rostership, Cooper Rush needs to be owned as a 3rd-string backup or as a bench rider to block your opponent and cripple their QB options.)
Kendre Miller - 16% rostership, spend 30-40% FAAB (The theme of backups stepping up for injured starters continues in New Orleans with Kendre Miller. Alvin Kamara left in the second half versus the Commanders with a groin injury and is closer to missing than playing in week 16. Kendre Miller hasn’t been a beacon of hope himself, missing 16 games over his young career due to injury and falling out of favor with coach Dennis Allen. Luckily for us and Miller, Allen is gone and interim coach Rizzi has the Saints fighting with new life. Miller has a decent ceiling, finishing as the RB13 in Week 18 of 2023, and having the backfield entirely to himself. But with the Saints taking on a stout Packers defense in Week 16, expectations should be tempered.)
Carson Wentz - 0% rostership, spend 10% FAAB (Patrick Mahomes exited Sunday’s game versus Cleveland in the 4th Quarter with a mild high-ankle sprain. This injury would knock out most QBs for a week or two, but Mahomes isn’t most sign-callers. Practicing in full on Tuesday, we expect Mahomes to grit his way through the injury and play. If he cannot battle through the pain, Carson Wentz would step up in his place. The last time Wentz started a game in week 18 of 2023, he finished as the QB2 with 3 TDs.)
Malik Washington - 3% rostership, spend 10% FAAB (Jaylen Waddle was knocked out in week 15 with a knee injury of unknown severity. Filling in was rookie Malik Washington, who finished 5/6 for 52 scoreless yards. If your team suffered any unfortunate injuries and the waiver wire cupboard is barren, you could do worse than Malik as a serviceable FLEX option).

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T-Rock 12/2/24 T-Rock 12/2/24

Week 14 Waiver Targets

Waiver Targets

ReDraft (most of these players will be rostered in Dynasty leagues)

Isaac Guerendo - 5% rostership, spend 100% FAAB (The priority add of the week is Isaac Guerendo following the news that both CMC and Jordan Mason are done for the season. An intriguing prospect out of Louisville, Isaac’s 4.33 40-time (99th percentile), 125.7 Speed score (100th), and 135.1 Burst score (98th) are extremely impressive for his size at 6’0”, 221 lbs. Unload everything you have on acquiring the last man standing in SF.)
Ray Davis - 21% rostership, spend 15-18% FAAB (Barely owned in most leagues, Ray Davis is one of the most valuable handcuffs heading into the playoffs. He has flashed upside all season long and converted 11 rushes into 63 yards (5.73 YPC) and 1 TD in their snowy matchup versus the reeling 49ers. Skilled as a rusher and receiver, the Bills offense has consolidated to only a few key players. Should James Cook suffer an injury, Ray Davis could prove to be a league winner in the final stretch of the season.)
Chris Rodriguez - 1% rostership, spend 8-10% FAAB (Brian Robinson Jr. has been one of the best RBs this season, especially when it comes to playing through injury. But even he has his limits. Rodriguez may not be the first handcuff that comes to mind, but he has shined in the opportunities he’s been given, including the 13 carries he turned into 94 yards and 1 TD in week 13 versus the Titans. With Ekeler landing on IR, and Washington being a premier rushing team, Rodriguez needs to be owned in case Robinson misses time.)
Aidan O’Connell - 5% rostership, 8-10% FAAB (Ranked at the bottom of most QB rankings heading into week 13, Aidan finished as the QB12 with a noble effort versus the dreaded Chiefs. With six teams on bye next week, Aidan has the best matchup of all FA QBs on the road against Tampa Bay.)
Bryce Young - 12% rostership, spend 8-10% FAAB (Playing the best football of his short career over the last two weeks, Bryce Young took advantage of the lowly Bucs D and turned in a QB7 performance with 315 total yards and 2 TDs. The Panthers have a brutal matchup against the Eagles, but have an ideal schedule for the remainder of the season.)
Parker Washington - 4% rostership, spend 5-8% FAAB (The surprise #4 WR of the week was Parker Washington, who converted 12 targets into 6 catches for 103 yards and 1 TD. With only BTJ and Engram to share targets with, look for Mac Jones to continue to rely on Washington when they take on Tennessee next week.)
Mac Jones - 2% rostership, spend 5-8% FAAB (Thrust into service following the brutal hit Lawrence suffered, Jones had his best game with 235 yards and 2 TDs. With TLaw likely missing next week with a concussion, and six teams on bye next week, Mac is a solid option for managers looking to stream a QB.)
Juwan Johnson - 6% rostership, spend 1-2% FAAB (With a season-ending knee injury to Taysom Hill, and the only other options on offense being Kamara and MVS, the opportunities could expand for Johnson and Foster.)
Ray-Ray McCloud III - 18% rostership, spend 0-1% FAAB (If you are desperate for a WR, Ray-Ray McCloud offers some upside as the 3rd/4th pass-catching option behind London, Mooney, and Bijan for Atlanta. He has overtaken Pitts in terms of targets over the last two contests and went 4/6 for 95 yards in week 13. He should see similar success versus Minnesota.)
Tommy Tremble - 0% rostership, spend 0-1% FAAB (Tommy Tremble is back as the Panther’s starting TE following the neck injury to Ja’Tavion Sanders. Sanders hopes to play in week 14, but the coaches may advocate to sit Sanders and give the rookie more time to heal. A beneficiary of Bryce Young’s improved play, Tremble turned in a solid performance with 5/8 for 77 yards.)

Dynasty

Patrick Taylor Jr./Kyle Juszczyk - 2-7% rostership, 1-2% FAAB in Best Ball (It would appear that the Madden curse has spread from CMC into the entire 49ers organization. This leaves Isaac Guerendo, Patrick Taylor, and FB Kyle Juszczyk as the only healthy backs for San Fran.)

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T-Rock 11/19/24 T-Rock 11/19/24

Week 12 Waiver Targets

Waiver Targets

ReDraft (most of these players will be rostered in Dynasty leagues)

Roschon Johnson - 14% rostership, spend 10-12% FAAB (At 42% snap share in their latest contest and a goalline carry that he converted into 6 points, Roschon could provide value in a pinch should Swift suffer a future injury.)
Devaughn Vele - 6% rostership, 1-3% FAAB (Firmly entrenched as the #2 target behind Sutton, Vele has a safe floor on a Broncos offense that continues to outperform expectations with the rise of Bo Nix.)
Will Dissly - 29% rostership, spend 1-3% FAAB (The Chargers offense is clicking on all cylinders as one of the most balanced attacks in the league. If you need a backup TE to play for upcoming bye-weeks or in case of injury, Dissly offers solid upside as one of the top TEs in the league at YPRR, TPRR, and YAC.)
Kendrick Bourne - 3% rostership, spend 0-2% FAAB (It’s difficult to trust which WR in NE is going to have the most productive day between Bourne, Douglas, and Boutte, but Bourne has the most upside given his role as the team’s X-receiver and his prior production from seasons past. He only played on 47% of the snaps in their latest matchup, but should see more opportunities moving forward.)

Dynasty

Tommy DeVito - 20% rostership, 15-18% FAAB in Best Ball (He’s back as the Giants starter, and thank the Lord for it! Last season, DeVito gave fantasy owners 4 top 19 QB weeks, including the QB7 in week 11 of 2023. With an exploitable TB defense being his first matchup as the new signal caller, and Malik Nabers/Tyrone Tracy as his main weapons, DeVito offers more upside than the typical backup QB.)

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T-Rock 11/11/24 T-Rock 11/11/24

Week 11 Waiver Targets

Waiver Targets

ReDraft (most of these players will be rostered in Dynasty leagues)

Mike Williams - 20% rostership, spend 18-20% FAAB (The Steelers rarely trade for WRs, but Williams’ skillset is exactly what Pittsburgh has been looking to pair with Pickens. Now the team has two of the best big-play X-receivers in the NFL that can scream down the perimeter of the field and high-point the signature moon-shots of Russell Wilson. Williams’ arrival couldn’t come at a better time with the health of Najee Harris’ ankle being up in the air, the team could become pass-heavy over the next few weeks.)
Audric Estime - 7% rostership, 15-18% FAAB (One of the most shocking splits from week 10 was the 14 rush attempts and 45% snap share that Estime received compared to the 1 attempt and 29% share that Javonte had. In a limited sample, Estime has been more efficient than Javonte, and with Williams in the last year of his contract, this game may be a sign of the end for Javonte in Denver. Audric was one of our favorite RBs in this year’s class and needs to be owned.)
John Metchie - 3% rostership, spend 15-18% FAAB (A potential trade candidate earlier in the season for his preseason performance, the Texans were wise to hold onto Metchie following injuries to Nico and Diggs. With defenses focusing on Tank Dell, Metchie was the top Texans receiver with 5/6 for 74 yards and 1 TD. With no guarantee that Nico won’t miss more games and the Texans looking for answers on offense, don’t be surprised to see Metchie continue to produce down the stretch.)
Gus Edwards - 19% rostership, spend 8-10% FAAB (Continually dismissed as an antiquated RB, Gus in his first game back from injury led the Chargers in rushing with an efficient 10 carries for 55 yards. Edwards has a nose for the endzone and could serve as a decent FLEX option if he can stay healthy and earn more touches on the ultra-efficient LA offense.)
Dawson Knox - 4% rostership, 3-5% FAAB (The Bills are reeling with injuries at receiver. Amari and Keon missed week 10 with injuries and now Dalton Kincaid is dealing with a knee injury. Knox has chemistry with Josh Allen and could serve as the #2 pass-catcher behind Shakir if their other top pass-catchers miss time.)

Dynasty

Marquez Valdes-Scantling/Tylan Wallace - 20% & 1% rostership, 0-2% FAAB in Best Ball (Welcome to week 11, where MVS and Tylan Wallace lead the list of dynasty pickups in the wasteland waiver wire. Do not spend any FAAB chasing the week 10 performances of these players, who both enjoyed the best games of their careers. The Saints have no one to throw to on offense outside of Kamara, so MVS could enjoy a few more decent games in 2024. The Ravens have a crowded receiver room and will likely never utilize Wallace like they did in week 10. You are praying for long TD receptions to these players in Best Ball formats only.)

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T-Rock 11/5/24 T-Rock 11/5/24

Week 10 Waiver Targets

Waiver Targets

ReDraft (most of these players will be rostered in Dynasty leagues)

Quentin Johnston - 27% rostership, spend 18-20% FAAB (Johnston explodes for 4/5 for 118 yds, 1 TD in his return from an ankle injury. When healthy, Johnston and Ladd McConkey will trade weeks for the most productive Chargers WR, but QJ is a priority add with LA becoming a pass-happy team post-bye.)
Mike Gesicki - 20% rostership, spend 15-18% FAAB (Gesicki had the 2nd-best game by a TE this season, going 5/6 for 100 yds, 2 TDs. It was the best fantasy game of his entire career. Gesicki is a must-own and a must-start anytime Tee Higgins is not playing. He is a volatile play with Tee in the lineup.)
Khalil Herbert - 9% rostership, 10-12% FAAB (Ignored and forgotten like a donation box for Goodwill, the talented RB finds a new home in Cincy. We believe his low utilization has much more to do with the bad scheme of the Bears’ coaching, and much less to do with the ability of Herbert. With Zach Moss out indefinitely with a neck injury, and so few quality RBs available on waivers, Khalil could prove to be a sneaky upside add ahead of the playoffs.)
Trey Benson - 23% rostership, spend 10-12% FAAB (James Conner is the clear workhorse of the Cardinals backfield, but he has also missed 4 games each of the last 2 seasons. If Conner goes down with an injury, it will pave the way for Benson and Emari Demercado to find opportunities. The offense hasn’t clicked yet for Benson, but we expect Arizona to prioritize the run game given Kyler Murray’s ceiling as a passer.)
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine - 2% rostership, 3-5% FAAB (Nick has been a top-36 WR the last 3 weeks of the season, including +92% snap share the last two weeks since DHop was traded. Nick’s production could completely change if the Titans return to Levis, so don’t get carried away with the FAAB bid.)

Dynasty

Trey Lance - 32% rostership, 10-12% FAAB in Best Ball (Dak Prescott is on IR while recovering from both a hamstring and hand injury. Cooper Rush takes over as the starter, but with how underwhelming Dak has been we don’t expect Cooper to do much on the piss-poor Cowboys. With his unique rushing upside, we hope to see Trey Lance get an opportunity.)

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T-Rock 10/29/24 T-Rock 10/29/24

Week 9 Waiver Targets

Waiver Targets

ReDraft (most of these players will be rostered in Dynasty leagues)

Bo Nix - 35% rostership, 20-25% FAAB (Bo continued the trend of players having their best games versus Carolina with 284 passing yards and 4 total TDs (start all of your Saints players in week 9). The 12th overall pick in the NFL Draft has put together three top-10 QB finishes in the past month and has had 6/8 weeks in the top 16. Lacking playmaking receivers, Bo has utilized his legs to average 32 yards rushing per game, and has scored 4 TDs on the ground.)
Joe Flacco - 6% rostership, 18-20% FAAB (Anthony Richardson has been benched. For how long? Who’s to say? But what is for sure is that Flacco has been the far better QB. In 3 games, Cool Joe has passed for 716 yds, 7 TDs, and only 1 INT. In 5.5 games, ARich has passed for 958 yds, 4 TDs, and 7 INTs (while also rushing for 242 yds, 1 TD). This provides an immediate boost to all playmakers for the Colts offense. We anticipate Indianapolis will retain Flacco as the starter until the team has been eliminated from playoff contention.)
Cedric Tillman - 24% rostership, spend 15-18% FAAB (Matt Harmon of Reception Perception posted in his Discord that Tillman was on the rise in his rankings a few days ago. Then Tillman explodes for a career game versus their division rival. An intriguing prospect out of Tennessee, Tillman is above average in many respects but offers insane athleticism with a 9.56 RAS score. With a healthier offensive line and Jameis Winston, the Browns look far more competent, and dare we say, professional at times. Acquire Tillman, who looks to be a major beneficiary as their #1 X-receiver moving forward.)
Adam Thielen - 21% rostership, spend 15-18% FAAB (Diontae Johnson has been traded to the Ravens, paving the way for Adam Thielen to be #1 WR for the Panthers after returning from IR. It will be tricky for the 34-year-old WR to stay healthy while recovering from a hamstring injury, but the productive vet has more upside than the typical FLEX option.)
Demarcus Robinson - 15% rostership, spend 10-12% FAAB (Demarcus Robinson can not bear the burden of being a WR1, but with Kupp & Puka back in the fold, Robinson can be the chip-winning fantasy god he was last year as the WR3. The Rams are too well-coached and talented to roll over for the rest of the season. Acquire all the value starters you can from this elite offense.)
Jalen Coker - 0% rostership, spend 5-8% FAAB (Written about in week 5 as a dynasty waiver add, Coker has moved into redraft legitimacy after a 4/6 for 78 yd, 1 TD performance versus Denver. Carolina is a dumpster fire, flying down a steep hill toward a nitroglycerin plant, but with Coker’s ability to turn limited opportunities into big plays and Diontae Johnson being traded, Jalen should see a worthwhile uptick.)
Parker Washington- 0% rostership, spend 5-8% FAAB (Parker Washington will be the #1 add for most leagues this week given the injuries to all 3 starting WRs for Jacksonville. However, expectations should be tempered considering that Parker hasn’t eclipsed a 34% snap share despite how poor the Jaguars have been at WR outside of BTJ. The 6th-round 2023 pick was not a highly-ranked prospect for our process but is still worth a waiver bid considering his opportunity.
Elijah Moore - 8% rostership, 3-5% FAAB (Tillman will be the hot commodity after their win over Baltimore, but he wasn’t the only Browns receiver who had their best game of the year. Moore led Cleveland in targets with 12, catching 8 for 81 yards. Cleveland and Carolina receivers may not be the fireworks waiver-adds we all hope for, but it's the best we can hope for at this point in the season.)

Dynasty

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine - 11% rostership, 8-10% FAAB in Best Ball (Westbrook-Ikhine has scored a TD for three straight weeks, but most encouraging was the 92% snap share he earned in their latest contest. With Hopkins in Kansas City and Burks on IR, the WR2 position is wide-open with little production coming from Tyler Boyd.)
Adam Trautman- 6% rostership, 5-8% FAAB in Best Ball (Trautman was the primary TE for the Broncos last season, but has been irrelevant for Denver until this past week. With Greg Dulcich falling out of favor with Coach Payton (likely due to poor blocking) and Lucas Krull injuring his shoulder, Trautman took advantage with 4/4 for 85 yards, 1 TD on an 85% snap share. With the team hitting its stride, look for the Head Coach to keep Trautman as the TE1 while Krull is out.)

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T-Rock 10/21/24 T-Rock 10/21/24

Week 8 Waiver Targets

Waiver Targets

ReDraft (most of these players will be rostered in Dynasty leagues)

Ricky Pearsall - 25% rostership, spend 20-25% FAAB (A favorite prospect of ours, Ricky checks off every box as a mid-season chip-piece. Pearsall has amazing athleticism and route-running ability. He plays on a top-10 offense with only Kittle, Jennings, and Deebo ahead of him. With how often San Fran’s playmakers are injured, we anticipate Ricky being the #2 or 3 option moving forward as an upside FLEX option. By week 10-12, he should be locked in to aid in your playoff run. Downtier for him in Dynasty leagues.)
Jonnu Smith - 7% rostership, 5-8% FAAB (A top TE in week 7, Jonnu was the focal point of a pitiful Miami offense with 7/7 for 96 yds, 1 TD. Miami will improve significantly with Tua returning to the team in week 8, but it’s unknown if Jonnu will be an afterthought behind Tyreek, Waddle, and Achane. With the uncertainty of the TE landscape, Jonnu is an upside TE2.)
Jameis Winston - 3% rostership, spend 5-8% FAAB (Nothing compares to the Winston experience. There will be a few highs and interceptions galore, but the pre-game hype and post-game interviews make it all worth it. Unfortunately, Jameis has nothing to work with behind a decimated line, but the adventure wouldn’t look much different on an elite offense. Ride the Jameis Train until it flies off the tracks in 2-3 weeks.)
Taysom Hill - 23% rostership, spend 1-3% FAAB (Taysom has missed the last 3 contests due to fractured ribs, but with the Saints falling apart on both sides of the ball, the team is desperate for playmakers on offense. We doubt that the return of Carr will recapture the spark they had at the beginning of the season, but Taysom is continually underrated. Sneak Taysom onto your team as an upside backup TE.)
Jalen McMillan - 6% rostership, spend 1-3% FAAB (With Mike Evans re-aggravating a hamstring injury and the severity being unknown, the rookie WR carries the most upside to step-up on this top 10 offense.)
Marcus Mariota - 0% rostership, spend 0-2% FAAB (Jayden Daniels left week 7 against Carolina with a rib injury. Luckily Daniels did not suffer a fracture, meaning he will likely only miss 1-2 games. Mariota will be the starter against the Bears and possibly versus the Giants. The Bears are a superior defense compared to the Panthers, making Mariota a desperate play.)
Tyler Goodson - 15% rostership, 0% FAAB (Goodson: 14 carries, 51 yds, 1 TD (48% snaps), Sermon: 8 carries, 36 yds, 1 catch, 13 yds (52% snaps). Goodson is the better RB, but with JT slated to return next week Tyler’s outlook is capped. The Colts are an awful offense, so don’t get too carried away with this pickup unless there is a change at QB or JT misses additional time.)

Dynasty

Noah Gray - 40% rostership, 8-10% FAAB in Best Ball (The Chiefs passing attack is shockingly unwatchable. With Juju getting knocked out of the game, it wasn’t Kelce but Gray who led KC in receiving with 4/4 for 66 yds. These are certainly strange times we are playing in.)
Kalif Raymond - 17% rostership, 5-8% FAAB in Best Ball (Kalif has turned in 2 solid performances in a row on an offense that looks almost unstoppable. Kalif will rotate with Tim Patrick as the #3 WR, but offers upside as a cheap option in all Best Ball formats.)
Jake Bobo - 18% rostership, 3-5% FAAB in Best Ball (Bobo didn’t show up in the stats on Sunday, but those who are in the know are aware that Jake is a favorite amongst the Seahawks receivers, especially in the redzone. With DK Metcalf being week-to-week with a knee injury, look for Bobo to see an increase in opportunities.)
JaMycal Hasty - 8% rostership, 3-5% FAAB in Best Ball (Hasty stepped up with 5 catches for 49 yds & 1 TD after New England lost Polk, DeMario, and Gibson getting banged up as well. This offense offers very little upside, making Hasty only worthwhile in Best Ball formats.)
Jacob Cowing - 47% rostership, 1-3% FAAB in Best Ball (With Ricky Pearsall ownership being universal, the next best available option is rookie Jacob Cowing. The 4th Rd pick carries a big-play upside but his opportunities will be limited behind Deebo, Jennings, Pearsall, & Bell.)
Mason Tipton - 23% rostership, 0-1% FAAB in Best Ball (The weekly top receiver for the Saints will be a revolving door, with none of them being worthwhile outside of Best Ball formats. As an undrafted rookie, the Yale prospect carries some upside with his 4.33 speed.)

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T-Rock 10/15/24 T-Rock 10/15/24

Week 7 Waiver Targets

Waiver Targets

ReDraft (most of these players will be rostered in Dynasty leagues)

Russell Wilson - 8% rostership, spend 25-30% FAAB (Fields has been amazing for fantasy as the QB6 & leading the Steelers to a 4-2 record. But the plan all along has been Russell. Fields hasn’t done any favors for his receivers and coach Tomlin knows that his team won’t go far if they can’t consistently push the ball through the air. Hold/Buy Fields in dynasty for his future opportunities. Stock up for Pickens, Freiermuth, and Warren with the QB change.)
Drake Maye - 15% rostership, spend 20-25% FAAB (An impressive debut against a tough HOU defense - 20/33 243 yds, 3 TDs, 2 INTs (5 rushes for 38 yds). Maye will spark the entire offense in a way Jacoby never could, both through the air & with his legs. Get excited for the #3 overall pick.)
DeMario Douglas - 14% rostership, 15-18% FAAB (Douglas is the best NE receiver by a country mile. The scheme capped his potential through the first 5 weeks, but with Maye targeting him like he did with Josh Downs at UNC, look for Douglas to Pop off.)
Ray Davis - 19% rostership, 12-15% FAAB (A favorite RB prospect coming out of the draft, the former Kentucky Wildcat shredded the stout Jets defense for 152 total yards for the best game of his young career. Even if James Cook returns from injury, Davis will continue to earn more touches as the Bills passing offense continues to stink.)
Spencer Rattler - 9% rostership, spend 8-10% FAAB (With top 24 QBs hard to come by in SF leagues, and Rattler guaranteed to start for the next few weeks with Carr on the mend, Spencer is a decent add. Rattler has a tough stretch against the DEN & LAC defenses over the next 2 weeks, and without Olave & possibly Shaheed, it could be tough sledding for the rookie QB.)
Sean Tucker - 0% rostership, 5-8% FAAB in Best Ball (Wow, wow, wow… wow. Sean Tucker likely had the best game of his career as the RB1 in week 6. The Bucs RBs continue to outperform their expectations and make the most of their limited usage in a pass-happy offense. With 2 capable RBs in Bucky Irving & Tucker, TB may take their time in bringing back Rachaad White.)
Rashod Bateman - 17% rostership, spend 5-8% FAAB (It only took 4 yrs for Bateman to be relevant in fantasy, but we are finally here. Locked in shootouts over their last few games, the Ravens have pushed themselves to be a balanced offense and pass more. Bateman has benefited greatly and has been a top-40 WR in 3 of the last 4 contests. Bateman should be started in wk 7 against a high-scoring Bucs offense as a FLEX-worthy add.)
Isaac Guerendo - 5% rostership, 5-8% FAAB (Most of his production came on a 76-yard TD, but that play also epitomizes how explosive the talented rookie can be. Jordan Mason could very well play through his AC joint sprain, but with the situation around CMC still being mirky, Guerendo is worth a flier should Mason miss any more time.)
Trey Benson - 27% rostership, 5-8% FAAB (James Conner has kept Benson on the bench all season long, but if Conner were to miss any time with his ankle injury then Benson becomes an add with mediocre expectations.)
Ja’Tavion Sanders - 6% rostership, 3-5% FAAB (With Tremble suffering a concussion and Ian Thomas being Ian Thomas, Sanders seized the moment as the Panther’s 2nd-leading receiver with 5/7 for 49 yards. With the Panthers needing to build towards the future and so few TEs worth picking up off the waiver wire, Sanders offers decent upside.)
Blake Corum - 22% rostership, 3-5% FAAB (As a preemptive move in case Kyren Williams were to miss any time, Corum should be added as an upside stash to benches over under-performing players who offer zero upsides.)
Noah Brown - 3% rostership, 2-3% FAAB in Best Ball (We believe Noah Brown edges out Olamide Zaccheaus as the #3 on this offense behind McLaurin & Ertz. Brown out-snapped Olamide 64-39% & led the Commanders in targets with 8 against Baltimore. WAS is an offense that will continue to improve, making Brown a worthwhile add that won’t cost much.)
Kimani Vidal - 16% rostership, spend 2-3% FAAB (With Gus on IR, Vidal may not be able to take too many touches away from Dobbins on the ground, but Kimani offers some upside through the air. The fragility of the Chargers backfield and Vidal’s prospect profile makes him an upside stash.)
Pierre Strong/D’Onta Foreman - 0-5% rostership, 0-1% FAAB (With Ford sustaining a hamstring injury of unknown severity, and Chubb eyeing a return soon, Strong & Foreman could be had for free in the event things don’t go well for Chubb. But the Browns are awful, so it may not matter.)

Dynasty

Bub Means - 21% rostership, 8-10% FAAB in Best Ball (With Olave likely out against Denver and Shaheed dealing with a knee injury, Bub has emerged as the clear #1 for a Saints team that is desperate at WR.)
Devaughn Vele - 43% rostership, 5-8% FAAB in Best Ball (Outside of Sutton, the receiving opportunities have been wide-open in DEN under coach Payton’s entire tenure. At 6’5”, Vele led the team with 78 yards receiving, making him an intriguing waiver consideration if you want to take a shot at the rookie.)
Grant Calcaterra - 0% rostership, 3-5% FAAB in Best Ball (Calcaterra stepped up with 4/4 for 67 yds and played well for the injured Dallas Goedert. The Eagles are playing nowhere near their potential, making a fringe player like Calcaterra a risky play, but the entire TE position is a crapshoot anyway.)
Foster Moreau - 20% rostership, 3-5% FAAB in Best Ball (The Saints may lean more heavily on their TEs Foster & Juwan without their top WRs against the Broncos. Foster led NO in receiving in wk 6, but had 2 goose-egg performances in wk 2&4, so he’s only worth a damn in Best Ball formats.)
D’Ernest Johnson - 7% rostership, 1-3% FAAB in Best Ball (D’Ernest offers very little upside on a bad JAX team, but with Etienne injuring his hamstring, and Tank’s play being hot or cold, Johnson is worth an add if you have the room.)
Kayshon Boutte/Kendrick Bourne - 19-43% rostership, 0-3% FAAB in Best Ball (Kendrick Bourne is the upside play of this duo, but owned in a far higher percentage of leagues. With Maye taking over as the QB, these WRs are worth rostering in all BB formats as we wait to see how the receiver room shakes out behind Pop Douglas.)

The Dossier

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Check out the latest from South Harmon

Videos: https://www.youtube.com/@SouthHarmonFF/videos

Podcasts: https://open.spotify.com/show/4DRA34XipOMfw4vNi1VITC

T-Rock 10/7/24 T-Rock 10/7/24

Week 6 Waiver Targets

Waiver Targets

ReDraft (most of these players will be rostered in Dynasty leagues)

Tank Bigsby - 31% rostership, 20-25% FAAB in Best Ball (Was advocated as a pickup after wk 1. His 129 total yards & 2 TDs in wk 5 were a career-best, perhaps signaling a true 50/50 split moving forward on this dysfunctional offense.)
Ty Chandler - 36% rostership, spend 18-20% FAAB (Aaron Jones suffered a hip injury with unknown severity in wk 5. Jones could be out several weeks at his age, and if Chandler performs well, then Jones won’t be rushed back for the undefeated franchise. The Vikings have a bye in wk 6, but you may not want to risk losing out on the potential RB1 in one of the best offenses in 2024.)
Joe Flacco - 13% rostership, 15-18% FAAB (We may have a Pittsburgh/Green Bay situation, where the coach takes their time before rushing back the starting QB. Especially with how much better the offense has looked under Joe - 33/44, 359 yds, 3 TDs. Flacco is the perfect bye-wk QB if he is starting & worth a pickup if ARich were to pick up any further injuries.)
Tyrone Tracy - 33% rostership, 10-12% FAAB (A dynasty favorite coming out of the draft for his unique profile as a WR converted RB. The rookie showcased his rushing ability while filling in for the injured Singletary. He exploded against a tough SEA defense with 129 rushing yards on 18 attempts. He is a FLEX-worthy option if Devin misses any further contests, but nothing more on an untrustworthy offense.)
Colby Parkinson - 38% rostership, spend 8-10% FAAB (Close to setting career season highs after only 5 games, Colby has seen steady volume as one of the top pass catchers for a snakebit Rams team. With how awful the TE position has been, it would be worth stashing Colby ahead of their wk 6 bye.)
Roschon Johnson - 32% rostership, spend 5-8% FAAB (The goalline back may not serve much more purpose than Swift’s TD vulture, but sometimes this is enough in fantasy as the pickings slim down.)
Jaylen Wright - 20% rostership, spend 5-8% FAAB (Someone please check the Dolphins’ helmets for God’s sake. With Achane joining Tua in the maze, Jaylen Wright and Raheem Mostert stepped up to share the backfield in wk. 5. Wright played efficiently with 13 attempts for 86 yds. Miami has wk. 6 bye week, giving Achane 2 weeks to come back, but with how bad things have been in Miami, we wouldn’t be surprised to see the coach hold out Achane until Tua returns in wk. 8. Achane & Mostert are injury-prone, making Wright a worthwhile pickup for the ROS.)
Ray-Ray McCloud - 10% rostership, 0-1% FAAB (A top 50 WR for 4/5 weeks, Ray-Ray had his best game in wk. 5 with 6/9 for 66 yds. The Falcons are a frustrating offense, but with Cousins averaging 274 yds a game (tied-5th in NFL), McCloud could be a decent option if needed.)

Dynasty

Jalen Coker - 17% rostership, 8-10% FAAB in Best Ball only (A UDFA out of Holy Cross, the 6’3” 213 lb WR got the attention of Steve Smith Sr. during the Draft process and became a dynasty stash. With an injury to Legette, Coker made the most of his opportunity by going 4/4 for 68 yds. It is not often UDFAs out of small schools can make their way into a 53% snap share during their rookie season, but he has talent and Steve Smith’s interest, and that’s enough to put in a waiver.)
Charlie Kolar - 2% rostership, 0-1% FAAB in Best Ball (It started with Likely, but now it seems that Charlie Kolar will be a major beneficiary of the Mark Andrews downfall. In all seriousness, Kolar is only worth an add in Best Ball leagues if you have someone on your bench that you can drop because they are Practice Team player.)

The Dossier

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Check out the latest from South Harmon

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Podcasts: https://open.spotify.com/show/4DRA34XipOMfw4vNi1VITC

T-Rock 9/30/24 T-Rock 9/30/24

Week 5 Waiver Targets

Waiver Targets

ReDraft (most of these players will be rostered in Dynasty leagues)

Dontayvion Wicks - 18% rostership, 15-18% FAAB (Erupted in wk 4 - 5/13 for 78 yds & 2 TDs. With Watson injured, Wicks can explode any given week on this high-flying offense with Love at QB.)
Josh Downs - 28% rostership, 12-15% FAAB (Downs was a key factor in the Colts' upset win over the Steelers. Hauling in 8/9 for 82 yds & 1 TD, we believe Downs is just getting started with JT now injured.)
Chase Brown - 57% rostership, 12-15% FAAB (We were wrong to advocate dropping him, but we blame the Bengals for waiting until wk 4 to utilize the explosive RB finally.)
Tre Tucker - 19% rostership, 10-12% FAAB in Best Ball (Was under consideration last week, but now we have seen enough to recommend picking up the speedy WR. He should continue to produce as the big-play WR while Adams recovers from injury.)
Trey Sermon - 4% rostership, spend 2-3% FAAB (This is a tricky situation: ARich can’t pass, JT is hurt, & Sermon isn’t that great of an RB. Perhaps it's best to target these other waivers.)

Dynasty

Jeremy McNichols - 3% rostership, 8-10% FAAB in Best Ball only (Absolutely smashed filling in for Ekeler - 8 carries for 68 yds, 2 TDs. An explosive RB on one of the best rushing offenses is worth a pick-up.)
Dare Ogunbowale - 11% rostership, 5-8% FAAB (Akers hasn’t done much filling in for Mixon the last 2 weeks. Pick up Dare for his receiving upside.)
Justin Watson - 13% rostership, 3-5% FAAB (Watson is a downfield WR who thrives on splash plays during critical downs. Despite the injury to Rice, do not expect a major uptick for Watson.)
Mecole Hardman/Skyy Moore/JuJu Smith-Schuster - 13-35% rostership, 0-1% FAAB (All these WRs could be total cones at this point in their careers, but at the rate the Chiefs are losing cornerstones of their offense, we fully expect Travis Kelce & Carson Steele to be the TE1 & RB1 from here on out.)

Expendable

Cut loose the following players before they compromise their rosters:

ReDraft

Kirk Cousins - 41% rostership (The most underrated QB in the league does not look like a good fit for this Atlanta team. Keep him if you have no other choice.)
Tyjae Spears - 65% rostership (Pollard has taken over the backfield for a Titans’ offense with zero upside.)
Ezekiel Elliott - 64% rostership (From 51% snap share in wk 1 to 18% in wk 4, Elliott and the Cowboys' run game looks completely cooked.)

The Dossier

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Podcasts: https://open.spotify.com/show/4DRA34XipOMfw4vNi1VITC?si=e24c1ede81a44590

T-Rock 9/23/24 T-Rock 9/23/24

Week 4 Waiver Targets

Waiver Targets

ReDraft (most of these players will be rostered in Dynasty leagues)

Jauan Jennings - 44% rostership, spend 15-18% FAAB (Deebo & Kittle being ruled out late last week made Jauan a must-add. Jennings is unlikely to replicate his colossal Wk 3 performance, but he is an easy FLEX play any time SF is down a starter (which is often))
Michael Wilson - 15% rostership, 12-15% FAAB (McBride is likely out with a concussion in Wk 4, elevating Michael Wilson to WR3 territory against a putrid WAS def)
Xavier Legette - 35% rostership, 8-10% FAAB in Best Ball (With Andy Dalton, the Panthers are no longer a clown show on offense, and with Thielen likely missing significant time, Legette could see more opportunity)
Allen Lazard - 39% rostership, 5-8% FAAB (Rodgers is taking the easy looks to the Lizard King while defenses scheme against Garrett Wilson)
Tyler Conklin - 14% rostership, 5-8% FAAB (Likely dropped after two abysmal weeks, Conklin is a serviceable option at a wasteland position)
Brenton Strange - 35% rostership, 3-5% FAAB (With Engram out for an undefined period, Strange becomes the #2-3 option on an offense devoid of playmakers)
Antonio Gibson - 27% rostership, 0-5% FAAB (With bye weeks on the horizon and injuries soon to follow, you can do worse than Gibson. He’s carved out a key pass-catching role on an offense that doesn’t pass the ball very far down the field)
Jordan Akins - 3% rostership, 0% FAAB (Has 12 targets and 8 catches through 3 games, which is solid enough in 2024. Enjoy another few weeks of production before Njoku returns to the fold)

Dynasty

Calvin Austin - 31% rostership, 5-8% FAAB in Best Ball only (He played in only 54% of the snaps in Wk 3, but the Steelers have no one else at WR outside of Pickens)
Elijah Higgins - 9% rostership, 5% FAAB (Higgins is the next man up at TE with McBride likely to miss their juicy matchup against WAS in Wk. 4. Higgins has athletic upside, but temper expectations with MHJ, Wilson, & Dortch all likely ahead of him)
Johnny Wilson- 36% rostership, 0-5% FAAB (The Eagles could wait until after their Wk 5 bye to bring back both AJ Brown & DeVonta Smith. This gives the 6’6” 228 lb mutant WR Johnny Wilson a chance, but Philly will likely run the ball down TB’s throat)
Brock Wright - 3% rostership, 0-3% FAAB (The Lions appear to operate best running the ball, but if LaPorta misses time, Brock could see decent touches)

Expendable

Cut loose the following players before they compromise their rosters:

ReDraft

Justin Herbert - 61% rostership (Outside of the top 24, he will be severely limited by injuries, the run-first offense, and a lack of explosive pass-catchers. Trade him for Andy Dalton)
Zamir White - 82% rostership (He’s the worst starting RB in the league. Drop him as a waiver wire booby trap)
Tyler Allgeier - 36% rostership (Even if Bijan gets hurt, what is the upside?)
Jaleel McLaughlin - 34% rostership (DEN has the worst run game in the NFL)
Jaylen Warren - 75% rostership (Likely not fully recovered from his knee injury, he can be dropped if he can’t be traded)
Gus Edwards - 60% rostership (Gus has looked like an absolute cone in 2024, forcing J.K. into a bell-cow role)
Khalil Herbert - 13% rostership (The Bears couldn’t run the ball if their lives depended on it)
Chase Brown - 56% rostership (The Bengals have zero faith in Chase Brown)
Trey Benson - 49% rostership (3% of the touches in Wk. 3, the Cardinals are in no hurry to feature the explosive RB)
Blake Corum - 44% rostership (McVay lied to us all Summer about how much he loves Corum. I should have traded him for Brian Robinson plus a 3rd when I had the chance)
NE WRs - (These receivers are closer to Charlies than Betas)
IND WRs - (Hold onto Pittman for one more week, but everyone else is droppable. Waterboarding, electroshock, and watching ARich pass the ball have all been deemed as permissible enhanced interrogation techniques for our Agency)

The Dossier

Check out the latest from South Harmon

Mike & ATM: https://www.youtube.com/live/2Fz4FyMV2lQ?si=5afTYCJNiQsZwed7

ATM: https://youtu.be/7hBrBU2xZsU?si=IH9_bhk_qf7pToo3

Matty: https://www.youtube.com/live/es30r3DfdEc?si=UyKH1HkiovsNDi1U

Fizzle: https://www.youtube.com/live/ypbi15JQL1w?si=dGtF-GgmvZAzyIGG

Cody & Matty: https://www.youtube.com/live/dcXCATlxE88?si=z5it78n3X293Tni8

Fizzle & Cody: https://www.youtube.com/live/SzUsNN4T0BE?si=XzKurG_K1Vz4SUz9

Koopa: https://open.spotify.com/episode/6oyQQrGN0Df4jEXxNACxbD?si=69de6cef957743f9

Cody & Matty: https://open.spotify.com/episode/3hqBgzsoLFYwoH7gVBzqU2?si=c864c0ddd6ed47e5

Eric: https://open.spotify.com/episode/4smuMw8qoZI0M6caY6eOfU?si=b55a3f0e976d4f6a

Matt & Pat: https://open.spotify.com/episode/5PN6cJGP2YNjLeJYYg5gMv?si=9c1c6dc8e9034d11

T-Rock 9/16/24 T-Rock 9/16/24

Week 3 Waiver Targets

Waiver Targets

ReDraft (most of these players will be rostered in Dynasty leagues)

Braelon Allen - 21% rostership, 12-15% FAAB (Jumped from 18% to 35% snap share in wk. 2 and turned the increased opportunity into 2 TDs. If Breece ever misses time, Allen has RB1 potential)
Alec Pierce - 23% rostership, 10-13% FAAB (There’s no way the 3rd yr player keeps up this breakout pace, but take a shot on him in case we’re wrong)
Andrei Iosivas - 15% rostership, 10-12% FAAB (Not sure what his role will be once Higgins returns, but the Bengals looked a lot better in Wk. 2, & Iosivas looks like a top redzone target for Burrow)
Kareem Hunt - 0% rostership, 8-10% FAAB (Pacheco is out for 6-8 wks with a fractured fibula. Steele & Perine aren’t good. CEH is MIA. Hunt had 10 top-36 RB performances in 2023. Now he’s back in a Chiefs uniform.)
Quentin Johnston - 16% rostership, spend 8-10% FAAB (The Poster Child of Busts is no longer looking like one of the worst fantasy picks of all time)
Jalen Nailor - 4% rostership, 5-8% FAAB (with injuries now to both JJ & Addison, Nailor finds himself as the #1 on a dangerous looking Vikings team behind Sam Darnold - never expected to write this)
Jalen Tolbert - 6% rostership, 5-8% FAAB (Tolbert & Cooks could very easily trade weeks as the #2 in this high-powered offense. There’s also the chance Cooks could miss time at some point this season.)
Mike Gesicki - 10% rostership, 5-7% FAAB (The Bengals have never prioritized their TEs, but that could all change this yr.)

Dynasty

Andy Dalton - 9% rostership, 25-30% FAAB (You should already have him holstered, but if he’s somehow available, you pony up to acquire him. He was the QB7 in week 3 last yr and won’t relinquish the starting role for the ROS. If you need a QB3, send up to 2x 3rds via trade.)
Josh Reynolds - 53% rostership, 8-10% FAAB (Bo Nix doesn’t look the greatest, but Reynolds deserves to be rostered as the #2 option in a team that will look to pass a lot when behind)
D’Onta Foreman - 45% rostership, 8-10% FAAB (Consistently overlooked, Foreman always finds himself on the field with a decent share of the opportunities. Surprised to see him out-touch Ford 15 to 8)
Atwell/Whittington - 34% & 71% rostership, 5-8% FAAB (The Rams WR room has come under attack. Look for Tutu & Jordan to be the top receivers if Robinson & Tyler go down to injury in wk. 3)
Noah Brown - 32% rostership, 5% FAAB in Best Ball only (Jayden & The Commanders are obsessed with running, but in a given week Noah has the potential to be a top 2-3 receiving option for the team)

The Dossier

T-Rock 9/10/24 T-Rock 9/10/24

Week 1 Dossier

2024 is my year! This isn’t JUST some mantra you’ve made up in your head, like some “self-help” BS. No, you worked your ass off this entire Summer with the countless hours of YouTube you’ve binged! This year’s championship won’t be yours because you earned it… you were CALLED to it. Like a sacred trust, this responsibility falls to you because no one else was born to bear such a heavy burden as you.

Surprise Attack!

Hey, maybe you haven't been keeping up on current events, but we just got our asses kicked, pal!

Hudson - Aliens

Tora! Tora! Tora!

Thursday evening rolls in and you can barely contain what you have waited months to unleash on every poor soul in your leagues. This is just another BUG Hunt! I’m gonna lay waste to these mofo’s-

Mark Andrews - 2/2 for 14 yds
Travis Kelce - 3/4 for 34 yds
Dalton Kincaid - 1/2 for 11 yds
Trey McBride - 5/9 for 30 yds
Evan Engram - 1/4 for 5 yds
Jake Ferguson - 3/5 for 15 yds and hurt

Those are TEs! Of course, I wasn’t dumb enough to invest early capital in them! If you take a look at my elite wide-

Amon-Ra St. Brown - 3/6 for 13 yds
Puka Nacua - 4/4 for 35 yds and on IR
Marvin Harrison Jr - 1/3 for 4 yds
Chris Olave - 2/2 for 11 yds
Brandon Aiyuk - 2/5 for 28 yds
Drake London - 2/3 for 15 yds
Michael Pittman Jr - 4/8 for 31 yds
DK Metcalf - 3/4 for 29 yds
Zay Flowers - 6/10 for 37 yds
Amari Cooper - 2/9 for 16 yds
Terry McLaurin - 2/4 for 17 yds
All of the Bears Receivers

But wait, if they played bad, that means….. Oh God, MY SUPERFLEX QBs!!!

Kyler Murray - 162 passing yds, 1 TD (57 yds rushing)
Caleb Williams - 93 passing yds (15 yds rushing)
Brock Purdy - 231 passing yds (11 yds rushing)
Joe Burrow - 164 passing yds (15 yds rushing)
Trevor Lawrence - 162 passing yds, 1 TD (8 yds rushing)
Justin Herbert - 144 passing yds, 1 TD (6 yds rushing)
Kirk Cousins - 155 passing yds, 1 TD, 2 INTs
Deshaun Watson - 169 passing yds, 1 TD, 2 INTs (39 yds rushing)
Aaron Rodgers - 167 passing yds, 1 TD, 1 INT (-1 yds rushing)
Daniel Jones - 186 passing yds, 2 INTs (15 yds rushing)
Bo Nix - 138 passing yds, 2 INTs (35 yds rushing, 1 TD)
Will Levis - 127 passing yds, 1 TD, 2 INTs (36 yds rushing)
Bryce Young - 161 yds passing, 2 INTs (12 yds rushing, 1 TD)

That makes no sense! If all of the QBs played poorly and all the WRs and TEs suffered because of it, then who the hell scored all the points in week 1?!

Saquon Barkley - 132 total yds, 3 total TDs
De’Von Achane - 100 total yds, 1 TD
Joe Mixon - 178 total yds, 1 TD
Kenneth Walker III - 109 total yds, 1 TD
Alvin Kamara - 110 total yds, 1 TD
Rhamondre Stevenson - 126 total yds, 1 TD
Aaron Jones - 109 total yds, 1 TD
Jordan Mason - 152 total yds, 1 TD
J.K. Dobbins - 139 total yds, 1 TD - HE HAS RISEN!

HA! You thought you figured out fantasy football, didn’t ya?! Every piece of data and every single person in the space has championed WRs and a bounce back for QBs in 2024. Turns out the move was to scoop up all the value that fell at RB, especially in the early-mid rounds.

To be clear, I am obviously overreacting to Week 1. What other coping mechanism do I have when crumpling up my early retirement speach (my retirement, my spouse would still work)? Luckily for most people, just about everyone in your league suffered lower scoring. When looking at the first six rounds of SF Dynasty Startup ADP:

Standard Scoring, SF, 0 TE premium -

Only 9 of the top 17 QBs scored above 15 pts (52.9%)
7 of the top 18 RBs scored above 15 pts (38.9%)
6 of the top 29 WRs scored above 15 pts (20.7%)
1 of the top 8 TEs scored above 10 pts (12.5%)

Don’t panic, its only week 1. Defenses have the edge early in the season while teams acclimate to their new offenses and players continue to develop chemistry with one another (or so they say). Worst case scenario, you grow impatient and by week 3 you have to trade away Amon-Ra St. Brown for the incredible haul of Jordan Mason, Derek Carr, Baker Mayfield, J.K. Dobbins, Allen Lazard, Alec Pierce, Isaiah Likely, and Foster Moreau.

Waiver Targets

ReDraft (most of these players will be rostered in Dynasty leagues)

Jordan Mason - 56% rostership, spend 20-35% FAAB (The Madden Curse is alive and well. Mason is an RB1 on this SF team for every calamity that befalls CMC)
Brandin Cooks - 39% rostership, spend 15-20% FAAB (With Ferguson hurt, Cooks is the clear #2 on an offense looking to repeat as the highest-passing team in the league)
Rashid Shaheed - 44% rostership, 15-20% FAAB (Perfect upside player for Best Ball formats, his only issue has been staying consistently healthy)
Demarcus Robinson - 12% rostership, 12-15% FAAB (The #2 on a high-powered offense as long as Puka is out and was a league winner last year)
Greg Dortch - 11% rostership, 12-15% FAAB (A favorite target for Kyler and has proven to be a reliable player with past play)
Tank Bigsby - 11% rostership, 10-12% FAAB (very surprising considering how bad he was last year but an offseason of “chopping wood” and other types of Mr. Miyagi training seems to have done him a world of good)
Bucky Irving - 25% rostership, 10% FAAB (great project profile, but draft capital, landing spot, and size were all previous deterring factors. If he continues dominant play, the Bucs will have to play him more despite the same skillset as White)
Justice Hill - 12% rostership, 8-10% FAAB Best Ball only (Will likely only out-snap King Henry in negative game scripts but the Ravens have always loved Hill for his versatility as runner and pass-catcher)
Alexander Mattison - 10% rostership, 8-10% FAAB (Mattison > Zamir, plus Alex has pass-catching upside)
Tucker Kraft - 6% rostership, 8-10% FAAB (Has apparently supplanted Luke Musgrave as the Packers TE1, but it doesn’t matter until Love is healthy again)
Wan’Dale Robinson - 19% rostership, 5-8% FAAB (has the #2 role locked up behind Nabers, but it's the Giants…)
Jalen McMillan - 13% rostership, 5-8% FAAB (If Baker continues his high level of play, the WR3 could have some decent weeks, especially in Best Ball)

Dynasty

Tyler Johnson - 0% rostership, 3-5% FAAB in Best Ball only (Only has appeal as long as Puka is out and has competition with Kupp, Robinson, Colby, & Whittington)
Jalen Nailor - 34% rostership, 5% FAAB (outside of JJ, the offense is wide open to opportunity with so many key pass-catchers hurt)

A Taste of Things to Come

Here is what you can expect from the weekly Dossier this season:

Team Situation Reports (SITREP) - Replacing the commonly utilized “Game Recap,” Field Agents can expect breakdowns of the NFL into 4 Tiers of Team Rankings: Superpowers, Besieged Powers, Depressed States, and Failed States. Beginning with the Failed State Franchises, you’ll receive an overview of the team’s performances, critical Usage Activity reports for players, and actionable projections. Each team will receive two SITREPs throughout the season.

Bona Fides - The South Harmon Agency has the most rigorous testing program for each cornerstone position in fantasy football. Data pertains to the top-ranking players in each statistical category of major importance. Field Agents can begin pursuing high-value assets for their championship missions with this intel.

Agency Bulletin - These assets are heavily vetted by our intelligence officers and qualify as our highest-priority trade candidates based on performance, value, and rest-of-season projections. The Agency looks to continue building on the high success rate of last year’s campaign.

Field Reports - Classified Reports from the Agency’s Department of Intelligence & Field Operations. These in-depth manuals combine the latest analytical research, strategies, and tactics for our highest-tiered operatives.

Your Superior Officers will be in contact with you throughout the 2024 mission. Good luck.

The Dossier

T-Rock 12/20/23 T-Rock 12/20/23

Week 15 Dossier

There are various schools of thought on how to run a roster. Some have enough resources that can be deployed to overwhelm their competitors. Others rely on skillful manipulation to gain the upper hand. Regardless of how you achieve your goal, it cannot be argued that mission success can only be achieved through efficiently managing your assets. In our line of work, we carefully plan for the scenarios that may arise, but we do not waste valuable resources chasing the ‘what-ifs?’ Countless agents meet their doom because they were unable to make the cold and calculated decisions of what was best for the mission. They became too attached, always believing that every single asset was the key. In a game that relies upon quick reflexes, it is essential to understand the difference between an asset and a liability. The following principles can be applied in your startup drafts and throughout the regular season, but given the time of year, there will be an emphasis on how to best manage your rosters heading into the off-season. With this training, you won’t hesitate to pull the trigger.

Fantasy Pruning - Preparing Your Off-Season Roster

Red Herring

There are various schools of thought on how to run a roster. Some have enough resources that can be deployed to overwhelm their competitors. Others rely on skillful manipulation to gain the upper hand. Regardless of how you achieve your goal, it cannot be argued that mission success can only be achieved through efficiently managing your assets. In our line of work, we carefully plan for the scenarios that may arise, but we do not waste valuable resources chasing the ‘what-ifs?’ Countless agents meet their doom because they were unable to make the cold and calculated decisions of what was best for the mission. They became too attached, always believing that every single asset was the key. In a game that relies upon quick reflexes, it is essential to understand the difference between an asset and a liability. The following principles can be applied in your startup drafts and throughout the regular season, but given the time of year, there will be an emphasis on how to best manage your rosters heading into the off-season. With this training, you won’t hesitate to pull the trigger.

Roster Construction - The Golden Rule of proper roster management is optimizing your Roster Construction. The general idea is that your league’s unique roster and scoring settings should inform which positions to prioritize and how many at each position to carry on your roster. Understanding your league settings, weighing the pros & risks of each position, and knowing the market are all considerations for optimized roster construction. But the following is a good place to begin:

The first step is to utilize Dr. Koopa’s WoRP Calculated Optimal Roster Construction tool through the WoRP Calculator. With the “Roster Efficiency” being set to “High,” click the “Adjusted Roster Construction” icon if your league is Lineup or the “True Roster Construction” icon if your league is Best Ball. Finally, engage WoRP by clicking “Calculate WoRP.”

The number of players at each position in the optimal roster construction should add up to the total number of starting and bench spots your roster allows. The “Droppable” position is what it describes: it’s the number of players whose WoRP production can typically be replaced through the waiver wire/free agency. But what do you do with recommendations that are in decimal points? 

If you simply round up any position that is above .5 or round down any position that is below .5, you will inevitably have too many or extra roster spots to play with. If you want to apply the same percentage of players for your droppable as you have at every position, then you can simply use the following formula:

The Optimal Position # divided by The Total # of Roster Spots = The Position % multiplied by The Optimal Droppable # = The Remaining Roster Slots for Each Position

4.08 / 35 = 0.12 x 5.33 = .64 QBs
7.17 / 35 = 0.20 x 5.33 = 1.07 RBs
6.17 / 35 = 0.18 x 5.33 = 0.96 TEs
12.25 / 35 = 0.35 x 5.33 = 1.87 WRs

The number of Droppable players is typically negligible, so the above formula is completely optional, especially if your roster is not competing. The most important aspect to consider when optimizing a roster is viewing the WoRP Roster Construction Tool as a guideline rather than a strict doctrine. The strength you have at each position and your league markets will have the biggest influence on your roster construction in addition to your league’s scoring settings. With this in mind, let us explore some various scenarios to fill in the gaps.

QB - Last year in 2022, a record 64 different starting QBs played in the regular season. As of December 11th, 2023, there have been 55 different starting QBs this season. What many perceive as a ‘Dark Time’ when it comes to the most important position for SF leagues, the Agency instead sees opportunity.

Using the above Roster Construction as an example, it is advised to roster five QBs if one of the Droppable players is to be considered a QB. Either during your startup draft or at some point before the season begins, three of these five QBs should have job security and upside for the following reasons:

An early season injury will not completely derail your team if you have an extra QB that can be played.

There is yearly volatility in production where only 60% of the top 12 QBs from the year prior repeat as a top 12 finisher the following year (only 69.17% repeat as top 24 QBs).

Taking three starting QBs will force a league competitor to play with only two QBs.

Rostering three difference-making QBs in an SF league is the MINIMUM recommendation. In the world our agents operate in, the boundary on QBs has moved. 

Top-tier operators who win championships have as many as five to six starting QBs that they use to completely overwhelm their competition. To achieve this status, our agents must push the envelope in acquiring mid to lower-tier QBs during the season, especially after a season-ending injury occurs to a starting QB. Using WoRP to know which players to target and the principle of Pick Restraint (holding your 3rd-rd pick until 1/4 into the szn, 2nd-rd pick halfway into szn, 1st-rd pick 3/4 into szn), many league-winning QBs can be acquired under the 1st-rd pick price tag and for as little as a 3rd-rd pick. These players are cheap because they do not carry long-term dynasty stability, but “long-term” thinking is exploitable when championships are on the line. But what if you want to acquire these players for even cheaper?

Contrary to popular belief in not rostering ‘zeroes’ (backup players who are nearly guaranteed to score zero points due to the lack of playing time), there are certain backup QBs who are worth targeting. The following criteria will help you identify these potential difference-makers BEFORE they start and their prices shoot up:

They must be a backup (do not waste valuable roster slots on 3rd-string QBs until injuries shake up the depth chart)

They have prior starting experience in which they produced adequately as a starter (Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco, Gardner Minshew, etc.)

If none of these experienced veterans are available, turn your focus to backup QBs who:

```
Are on high-powered offenses, or
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Excelled in the Pre-Season, or
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Playing behind older/under-performing QBs who can be potentially benched

When 64 different QBs start during the season, it is no longer irresponsible to roster two to three of these types of players given the importance of the position, the attrition we have seen over the last two seasons, and their instant production/trade value should they see an opportunity. With all of these things in consideration, agents should head into the offseason prioritizing backup QBs who are under contract in 2024 to fill any open roster slots. If not for these reasons, one may take this approach to roster construction simply by default because of the volatility of the other positions, which we will explore now.

WR/RB - Heading into this season, it was the general operating procedure to prioritize WRs in best ball leagues. Their high upside and propensity for explosive plays being captured into your starting lineups is what makes the position so perfect for the best ball format.  However, after a certain range of WRs, their volatility makes them a liability in lineup leagues compared to RBs. In Lineup leagues, it is paramount to have clarity on the usage of your players. For this reason, it is often better to roster a backup RB over a team’s 2nd/3rd best WR in lineup because you’ll have no way of knowing when to start the WR (even an injury ahead of them in the depth chart doesn’t guarantee touches). A starting RB on the other hand has a far higher likelihood of guaranteed touches and scoring on goal-line opportunities compared to a WR. Whether it is an unfair opinion or not, the RB position has been devalued given their fragility and the lack of production drop-off between a starting RB and their backup. Given the probability that many starting RBs during the season may miss multiple games during the season, it is the Agency’s stance to roster talented backup RBs who can be confidently deployed should the starter miss time over a 2nd/3rd WR whose start in a lineup league is far more a shot in the dark.

Stick to the following parameters of roster construction when you’re close to starting the regular season or are in the middle of it:

It should go without saying that only talented players should be rostered; a terrible backup will likely be leap-frogged by a more talented 3rd-string player or an incoming free agent

Prioritize backup RBs that will get touches or offer a different skill set than the starter; surprising split shares can develop throughout a season

WRs that see less than 20-30% of the snaps are likely cut candidates

Veteran RBs at the bottom of your league-mates roster are amongst the easiest assets to trade for and can often be ‘throw-ins’ on bigger deals.

The balancing act of rostering a competitive squad with RBs & WRs and being liquid/flexible with picks completely changes heading into the offseason. If you are out of contention and you are still able to trade, there is one simple question to consider: “Would my league mates rather have my players or do they value their picks more? Will my competitors actively seek to acquire my players during draft season?” If your league values the pick more than the player, it may be a strong indicator to move the player off your roster via trade or cut. Any RB/WR outside the top six of dynasty rankings should be considered a candidate for trade heading into an off-season.

There are far too many unknowns heading into an offseason regarding most playmakers ranked outside the top 50 at their position and many inside the top 50 as well. For this reason, be willing to trade any of them for picks, including at a discounted price. This principle applies to contenders once the season has concluded. The time to reconsider these veteran players and depth pieces isn’t until late in the pre-season when the first depth charts are announced. Until then, prioritize picks and capitalize on rookie hype heading into and throughout the off-season. 

TE - We’ll make this short and sweet, but listen carefully because this may save your fantasy season one day: cut any TE that isn’t a starter or has a very high upside due to their draft capital/profile. They do not carry the WoRP firepower to command a place on your roster, they have the highest volatility of any position, and their price of acquisition is the least daunting. Use the leftover roster spots to carry extra QBs or anyone else who doesn’t play TE. 

Draft Picks - Hit rates and the true value of draft picks in terms of rookie selections will be covered in a future article. For the time being, the most crucial aspect for our agents to consider heading into the offseason is that draft picks are an invitation to the dance that only happens once a year. You don’t have to like dancing or rookies to appreciate that having tickets to this event gives managers the opportunity and flexibility to convert their draft currency into the resources they most desire for their squads. For this reason, it is pivotal to convert any speculative player into draft capital (which will only increase in value) and decide later during the draft season how to best utilize the asset.

Usage Activity

The usage of a player is one of the most critical pieces of intel that we can use to our advantage. Here are some points of interest worth considering: 

Chargers vs. Raiders - The entire Raiders offense is being investigated for suspected war crimes after taking advantage of a Los Angeles Chargers team that conscientiously objected to playing defense this past week. Aidan O’Connell’s week 15 performance was night & day different from his NFL debut in week 4 versus the Chargers. Week 15 - 20/34 for 248 yards and 4 passing TDs / Week 4 - 24/39 for 238 yards, 1 INT, 1 rushing TD. Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers were among the many beneficiaries in this game who went on to combine for 3 total TDs. Despite having a tough matchup versus the Chiefs in week 16, look to Las Vegas to once again go all in on their pass-catchers should Josh Jacobs miss this pivotal divisional game.
Easton Stick’s 23/32 for 257 yards, 3 TDs, & 1 INT will likely not be remembered given how badly the Chargers defense performed in giving up 63 points. His performance was admirable considering he was playing without the Charger’s top receiver (Keenan Allen) and he received little help from their pass-catching RB Austin Ekeler, who only managed 38 total yards on 9 touches. Things will not get any easier for the Chargers as they take on the Bills in week 16.

Vikings vs. Bengals - Patiently bided his time in dormant, the sleeper cell Jake Browning has unleashed an unquenchable fury on the league since being activated. Over the last 3 weeks, Browning is 4th in fantasy PPG (23.8 pts/g), first in completion percentage (76.7% - minimum 11 passes), and first in passing yards (953 yds). We’ll see if he can keep up this amazing stretch versus Pittsburgh and Kansas City.
Nick Mullens isn’t the flashiest signal-caller in the league, but his 26/33 for 303 yards, 2 TDs, & 2 INTs was good enough for QB11 on the week. Justin Jefferson (7/10 for 84 yds), Jordan Addison (6/6 for 111 yds & 2 TDs), and T.J. Hockenson were all able to enjoy solid outings despite the change at quarterback. In addition to Addison, Ty Chandler also put together a highly productive day with 157 total yards and 1 TD versus the Bengals. Chandler may not be able to replicate this performance versus a stout Lions rush defense in week 16, but Chandler is still a worthwhile flex play if Alexander Mattison misses another week with his injury.

Broncos vs. Lions - Despite only having 25 red zone touches on the year (26th amongst RBs) and 3 goal-line opportunities, Jahmyr Gibbs has made the most of his split opportunities in arguably the 2nd best backfield tandem of 2023 (behind only Miami’s RB duo). It is remarkable how comparable Gibbs’ 2023 stats in the NFL are to his 2022 stats at Alabama: Fantasy PPG: ALB - 16.42, DET - 17.0 … Routes/G: ALB - 20.3, DET - 19.8 … YdsPerCarry: ALB - 5.7, DET - 5.7 … YdsAfterContactPerAttempt: ALB - 3.39, DET - 3.22 … Target Share: ALB - 14.7%, DET - 14.9%. Both Gibbs and Montgomery will look to keep the ground game rolling in their divisional matchup with Minnesota, whom they will play in 2 out of their next 3 games.
There isn’t much to report for the Broncos other than Courtland Sutton not scoring his customary TD. The coaching staff continues to treat Marvin Mims like the Roswell Landing and struggle to harness his alien talents. Denver will look to bounce back versus New England this week.   

Bears vs. Browns - Joe Flacco is playing like the best QB the Browns have had since the Cold War. This man is playing like there is no tomorrow with his 939 passing yards over the last three weeks (2nd in NFL) and 5 INTs (highest in NFL over the span). Facing a Stroud-less Texans team this week and a revenge game against the Jets the following week, look for Flacco to scorch the earth with David Njoku, Amari Cooper, and an elite defense who are all fighting for the honor and pride of their comrade, Nick Chubb.
The Bears did not play well against the Browns, with only 166 yards through the air. They will rectify their performance next week against an exploitable Cardinals team.

Buccaneers vs. Packers - Chris Godwin’s 155 receiving yards against the Packers was the most he’s had in a game since week 12 of 2019 and was the 3rd highest number of yards he ever recorded in his career. It was only the 3rd time in Baker Mayfield’s career to throw for 4 TDs, which he hadn’t done since week 13 of 2020. Mayfield is on pace to have the best year of his entire career. If he manages to lock up the AFC South, Baker could lock up an extension with the Buccaneers this offseason. Mike Evans continues to pile on the TDs with another score this past week. Evans is 2nd amongst WRs with 11 receiving TDs (only 1 behind Tyreek Hill) and could come close to having his best season since 2018.     
Despite playing efficiently in the first half, Jordan Love couldn’t keep up with Baker’s stellar performance but still managed 29/39 for 284 passing yards and 2 TDs against the Buccaneers. Dontayvion Wicks (6/7 for 97 yds), Jayden Reed (6/8 for 52 yds & 1 TD), and Tucker Kraft (4/6 for 57 yds & 1 TD) have each enjoyed spectacular rookie campaigns with their first-year quarterback. The Packers will hope to be one step closer to sneaking into the playoffs when they face off with the Panthers this week.

49ers vs. Cardinals - Since Week 10, Brock Purdy has led the league in completion % (71.9%), passing yards (1762 yds), Passing TDs (17), and is tied with Dak Prescott & Bryce Young for the least number of INTs during this span (2 INTs). What’s most impressive is that Purdy has accomplished all of this on only 160 attempts, which is the fewest of any quarterback who has played all six games since week 10. Purdy made easy work of the Cardinals, going 16/25 for 242 yards and 4 passing TDs.  At -200, Purdy is currently the favorite to win the NFL MVP but will have to face off against a Ravens defense that will likely prove to be his toughest matchup since week 6 versus the Browns.
Since Kyler Murray returned to the lineup in week 10, Trey McBride has been the #1 TE in the league with 17.3 PPG (PPR), comfortably ahead of Sam LaPorta (15.8 PPG) and T.J. Hockenson (15.7 PPG). McBride has also led all TEs in receiving with 425 yards over this timeframe as well. With plus matchups versus Chicago and Philadelphia to close out the fantasy season, McBride could prove to be one of the most dangerous assets on championship rosters.

Waiver Targets

Spymaster Vanek will provide the latest intel through his America’s Game report. In terms of FAAB bidding, review your league’s previous waiver behavior to navigate the wire best. The waiver wire will become more bare as the season continues, especially in best ball formats.

Trey Sermon/Tyler Goodson - 14 & 2% rostership, spend up to 10% FAAB (Both RBs were efficient, but it remains to be seen if Moss or Taylor will return wk. 16)

Elijah Higgins - 13% rostership, 5% FAAB (Could be in line for a big opportunity if Trey McBride misses wk. 16)

Mason Rudolph - 2% rostership, 10% FAAB (Mason it typically hit or miss, but if you’re desperate then maybe Rudolph can perform a Christmas miracle and save your fantasy season)

T-Rock 12/12/23 T-Rock 12/12/23

Week 14 Dossier

Footsteps from a pair of rattlesnake boots echo through the abandoned warehouse. They scrape across the concrete floor before they finally come to a rest in front of a row of shipping crates, each with a glass of aged tequila resting on top. Gathered around these crates are leaders of the Asset Trafficking Syndicate, commonly known as the Dynasty Lords. With outstretched arms, the man in the boots smiles and says, “Gentlemen, thank you for being here. We have a common goal. We have fought hard to be here. What I propose is that at this moment we form an organization. Bringing our resources together to strengthen our position in the league, we will share knowledge and trade away the finest assets only amongst ourselves. Let us make it known to our league that we control the championship. Inside each of these crates are the highest-valued players and picks in the league. If you place your trust in me to manage the operations, I promise that each of you will have your moment of glory, and you have my word that I will destroy anyone that gets in our way.” Each of the Dynasty Lords looked at one another nodding before they reached for the glasses glistening in front of them. Raising their drinks in the air, they proclaimed in unison, “Al Patrón!” The Dynasty Lords had now become the Contender Cartel.

League Bandits

Meanwhile, at the Legion of Doom

Footsteps from a pair of rattlesnake boots echo through the abandoned warehouse. They scrape across the concrete floor before they finally come to a rest in front of a row of shipping crates, each with a glass of aged tequila resting on top. Gathered around these crates are leaders of the Asset Trafficking Syndicate, commonly known as the Dynasty Lords. With outstretched arms, the man in the boots smiles and says, “Gentlemen, thank you for being here. We have a common goal. We have fought hard to be here, but each of us knows that everything we have earned can be taken away from us in the blink of an eye during the playoffs. What I propose is that at this moment we form an organization. Bringing our resources together to strengthen our position in the league, we will share knowledge and trade away the finest assets only amongst ourselves. Let us make it known to our league that we control the championship. Inside each of these crates are the highest-valued players and picks in the league. If you place your trust in me to manage the operations, I promise that each of you will have your moment of glory, and you have my word that I will destroy anyone that gets in our way.” Each of the Dynasty Lords looked at one another nodding before they reached for the glasses glistening in front of them. Raising their drinks in the air, they proclaimed in unison, “Al Patrón!” It was at this moment that the Dynasty Lords had now become the Contender Cartel.

Usage Activity

Please examine carefully the following usage activity reports we have gathered on players from week 14:

Patriots vs. Steelers - Ezekiel Elliot’s week 14 was his best performance since week 3 of the 2021 season. Elliot rushed for 68 yards on 22 carries and had 72 yards receiving plus 1 TD on a team-high 7 receptions & 8 targets. Playing 91% of the snaps, and having one of the easiest remaining strength of schedules with the Chiefs, Broncos, and Bills, Elliot’s usage on the ground and involvement through the air could carry contenders to a championship as long as Rhamondre Stevenson remains out with an injury.
In the year of our Lord 2023, nothing can be taken for granted with the quarterback position. Despite passing for only 190 yards, Mitch Trubisky’s 2 TD & 1 INT was still good enough for QB8 on the week. But despite the wicked witch of Pittsburgh Matt Canada being vanquished, it is difficult to trust anyone in this offense when only one Steelers receiver accounts for more than 30 yards.

Buccaneers vs. Falcons - Drake London’s 10/11 for 172 scoreless yards on 76% of the snaps was the best fantasy game of his young career and good enough for WR2 on the week. London remains one of the most intriguing buys heading into the offseason ahead of the Falcon’s offseason campaign for a new QB.  
Since week 9, the only RBs to average more fantasy points than Rachaad White (19.6 pts PPR)) is Kyren Williams (24.9 PPR) and Christians McCaffrey (22.2 PPR). During this time, White leads the league in rushing attempts (109), is 2nd in rushing yards (440 yds), is tied for 5th place with 4 rushing TDs, and is tied for 1st with 2 receiving TDs. Featured on last week’s agency bulletin, one can have confidence in White’s rest-of-season performance after his 25 carries for 102 yards on the ground and 33 yards plus a TD through the air week 14 stat-line.

Rams vs. Ravens - As the best QB this week, Lamar Jackson passed for 316 yards and 3 TDs & 1 INT with an additional 70 yards on the ground. The main beneficiaries of Jackon’s performance were Odell Beckham, Isaiah Likely, and Zay Flowers, who each enjoyed at least 60 yards receiving and 1 TD. Keaton Mitchell was once again ultra-efficient: 9 carries for 54 yards. But it was actually Justice Hill who led all Baltimore backs in snaps at 42%. Hopefully, the Baltimore Ravens firing on all offensive cylinders is only a taste of great things to come for a team that aims to be the #1 seed in the AFC Conference.
Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua continue to make their case as one of the most effective and underrated WR duos in 2023. Kupp enjoyed the 2nd best performance of his 2023 campaign with 8/10 for 115 yards and 1 TD, whereas Nacua turned in a solid 5/8 for 84 scoreless yards. Leading this unit is Matthew Stafford, who has quietly been the 7th best QB since week 9, averaging 20.5 fantasy points/game. But much of this offense owes its success to their RB, Kyren Williams, who is only behind Christian McCaffrey as the most valuable rusher this season. The Rams lead back ran for 114 yards on 25 carries on 90% of the snaps.

Lions vs. Bears - For weeks, Jahmyr Gibbs has received the bulk of snaps at the RB position. That trend continued in week 14, with Gibbs seeing 63% of the snaps and David Montgomery receiving only 35% of the snaps. This could be due to the Lions’ gamescript being down much of the game and favoring the pass-catching abilities of Gibbs over Montgomery. Both RBs finished the game with similar yardage statlines: Gibbs - 11 carries for 66 yards rushing & 1 TD, 3/4 for 16 yards receiving … Montgomery - 10 carries for 66 yards rushing, 3/3 for 19 yards receiving.
The Bears on the other hand have one of the most confusing backfields in the league. D’Onta Foreman led the Chicago backfield with 55% of the snaps, followed by Roschon Johnson’s 28% snap share, and Khalil Herbert's 17% of snaps. Foreman turned this opportunity into 50 rushing yards on 11 carries and 22 receiving yards on 2 catches. It only took 14 weeks, but the Bears may have finally solidified Foreman as their most trusted back. 

Jaguars vs. Browns - Since becoming the Browns’ signal-caller in week 13, Joe Flacco is 5th in passing yards with 565 yds, tied for 2nd with 5 passing TDs, and is 11th in fantasy points/game with 19.3 points. Players like Amari Cooper, David Njoku, and Jerome Ford could all have some of their best 2023 performances yet to come with Chicago, Houston, and Jets still left on their calendar.
A top-10 TE option in all but 4 weeks this season, Evan Engram is on pace to smash last year’s season and have the best year of his entire career. Engram’s 11/12 for 95 receiving yards and 2 TDs was the 2nd best game of his career, only behind last year's week 14 performance versus the Titans. Engram must be considered a top 5 dynasty TE after back-to-back dominant seasons.

Seahawks vs. 49ers - Don’t look now, but Brock Purdy is 2nd only to Dak Prescott in the odds to win NFL MVP this year at +200. No other QBs have enjoyed the same level of consistent success the same way Purdy and Prescott have over the last six weeks of the season. Since week 9, Purdy has been 4th in points per game (22.8 pts), 4th in passing yards (1,520 yds), and 2nd in passing TDs (13). He added to his bid for MVP with a 19/27 for 368 passing yards, 2 TDs, & 1 INT performance against the Seahawks, which included 3 receivers over 75 yards receiving each (2 of which had over 125 yards receiving each). 
Despite receiving the ball from a different passer, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett remain one of the best WR duos heading into the fantasy playoffs. Lockett led all Seattle receivers with 89 yards on 6 catches, whereas Metcalf had a solid outing with 52 yards on 2 catches plus a TD. Zach Charbonnet appeared to be the furthest removed from injury and the most explosive Seattle back in this game. He had 44 yards rushing on 9 carries on 42% of the snaps, whereas Kenneth Walker III had 21 yards on 8 carries on 56% of the snaps. Perhaps another week will help Walker in his recovery from injury.

Broncos vs. Chargers - Javonte Williams did it: he scored a rushing TD (the 1st one in 2023). On 60% of the snaps, Williams ran the ball 17 times for 66 yards and had an additional 3 catches for 25 yards. Behind Williams in snaps was Samaje Perine (21%), who actually led the team in targets and catches (5/5), and Jaleel McLaughlin (19%). The TD streak continues for Courtland Sutton, who has scored in 10/13 games this season.
It does not look good for the Chargers offense with QB Justin Herbert now likely out for the remainder of the season. The only fantasy players that can survive such a shift are duel-threat RBs that can be utilized no matter the game script, such as Austin Ekeler, who had 51 yards on the ground plus a TD and 49 yards through the air on 72% of the snaps.

Waiver Targets

Spymaster Vanek will provide the latest intel through his America’s Game report. In terms of FAAB bidding, review your league’s previous waiver behavior to navigate the wire best. The waiver wire will become more bare as the season continues, especially in best ball formats.

Nick Mullens - 9% rostership, spend up to 0% FAAB (Dobbs likely gets another start, but if he has another bad game then it may be Mullens ROS)

Easton Stick - 2% rostership, 0% FAAB (he’s a QB likely to start for ROS, pick him up in BB if you have the room, you never know)

Davis Allen - 6% rostership, 0% FAAB (only Rams TE with a catch in wk. 14, viable start if Higbee misses another game)

T-Rock 12/5/23 T-Rock 12/5/23

Week 13 Dossier

Your senses are heightened as you look out your passenger-side window and bounce through the narrow city streets. In four unmarked SUVs, your covert ops team does its best to not draw any attention from any rooftop spotters. Based upon intel from your white-suited contact, the asset traffickers were looking to sure-up their remaining weakness at the RB position. The mission details were simple: extract the remaining RB assets before the dynasty lords, forcing them to move their picks out in the open and hopefully make a mistake. As you struggle to control your breathing, you notice the man sitting beside you is completely calm. A local advisor that you had no prior knowledge of before the mission briefing only a few hours ago. “Nothing will happen en route,” he says, “don’t worry.” You reply, “How can you be so sure?” Looking out the window he softly replies, “You’ll see.”

12 Angry Running backs

Crossing The Line

Your senses are heightened as you look out your passenger-side window and bounce through the narrow city streets. In four unmarked SUVs, your covert ops team does its best to not draw any attention from any rooftop spotters. Based upon intel from your white-suited contact, the asset traffickers were looking to sure-up their remaining weakness at the RB position. The mission details were simple: extract the remaining RB assets before the dynasty lords, forcing them to move their picks out in the open and hopefully make a mistake. As you struggle to control your breathing, you notice the man sitting beside you is completely calm. A local advisor that you had no prior knowledge of before the mission briefing only a few hours ago. “Nothing will happen en route,” he says, “don’t worry.” You reply, “How can you be so sure?” Looking out the window he softly replies, “You’ll see.”

With the location of the RB targets in sight, you give your final commands to the team, “Let’s get our guys and get the hell out of here.” In unison, each vehicle comes to a sudden stop and your team descends upon the surrounding buildings. Unsure of where to look, you knock down each door in front of you and pursue every path that remotely looks like a trade opportunity. But every room is empty. “Status?!” you exclaim through your radio. Your team reports back, “Nothing.” Something isn’t right. That’s when you receive the transmission from base, “Abort Mission! Report back immediately with your team!”

All your worst nightmares come alive as the reports trickle in. The Dynasty Lord never intended to pursue an RB; we just blindly followed what we were led to believe. Instead, the kingpin swung for the highest WoRP WR in the league… and connected. Our analysts simply assumed the asset was impregnable and that the contender wouldn’t take on such a risk and leverage some of their best assets to acquire such a piece. The local advisor slowly walks up to you saying, “Your agency will always be one step behind unless you consider the worst possibility. A true contender will not look to wound their opponent, but would rather take away their will to fight. Things are only going to get worse.”

Usage Activity

Due to time constraints, there will unfortunately be no recaps of the week 13 matches. Instead, carefully review the following Agency Bulletin for your 11th-hour trades.

Agency Bulletin

The following assets of interest are in various considerations for your Rest-Of-Season Mission. Elite assets will not be included in this report given their formidable prices. Do not engage in a trade until the following intel & parameters have been carefully reviewed:

The South Harmon Agency - Security Clearance will dictate access to this agency’s intel, but South Harmon operations are conducted on a daily basis with the objective of disrupting the fantasy space. Enroll in their academy as a recruit on Discord to gain access to their resources and train to become a top-tier fantasy operator. https://www.patreon.com/SouthHarmon
 
WoRP - Scoring settings & team needs will dictate which assets to pursue. WoRP is a valuable resource in not only establishing priority targets but also secondary and backup options if necessary. This resource can only be accessed through: https://www.southharmonff.com/worp

Managers to Target - Begin negotiations with managers who are on the opposite side of the standings. If your roster is rebuilding, prioritize trading with teams in the middle who are desperate to contend & whose picks have higher upside. Managers at the bottom of the standings will become more eager to trade away their players to acquire picks as the season progresses. If your roster is in the middle, negotiate with other middling teams - if you are unable to acquire players to contend, then adapt & pursue the other direction with acquiring picks.

Scouting Weeks 14-17 - Prioritize the players with the best matchups during the most critical stage of the season.  

FantasyCalc/KeepTradeCut - Where an asset ranks in the field ultimately determines its value. Dynasty Rankings and The Trade Database (which lists the most recent acquisitions of the asset of interest) are invaluable resources in leveraging suitable deals.

The Weekly Dossier -  This classified document carefully lays out weekly reports and directives based on intelligence compiled from the most advanced agencies in the field (NFL, NextGenStats, ESPN, PFF, FantasyPros, FantasyLife, PlayerProfiler, Underdog, Fantasy Points Data).

There are several factors to consider when delving into the fragile RB market. Trade value, age, upside of talent, playoff schedule, and usage all impact how confident agents can be in deploying the player. Realistically, any one of these RBs can help secure mission success. With that said, inquire about the prices of all the following assets and pursue the acquisitions that make the most sense for your rosters.

Two data samples were used to examine the RB landscape this season. The first sample included the top 45 active RBs ranked by points per game. Analysts additionally used Routes/G, TPRR, Yards Created Per Touch, Evaded Tackles/G, Yards After Contact Per Attempt (YCO/Att), Elusive Rating, Athletic Traits, Dominator Rating, Breakaway Runs, TDs, Snap Share, Target Share, and Red Zone Touches over weeks 1-12 to rate these RBs. The following are the top 24 season-long RBs:

1	Christian McCaffrey (SF)

2	De'Von Achane (MIA)

3	Saquon Barkley (NYG)

4	Kenneth Walker III (SEA)

5	Kyren Williams (LAR)

6	Jahmyr Gibbs (DET)

7	Breece Hall (NYJ)

8	Raheem Mostert (MIA)

9	Austin Ekeler (LAC)

10	Jaylen Warren (PIT)

11	Travis Etienne Jr. (JAC)

12	Bijan Robinson (ATL)

13	Rachaad White (TB)

14	Josh Jacobs (LV)

15	Tyjae Spears (TEN)

16	Brian Robinson Jr. (WAS)

17	Tony Pollard (DAL)

18	Alvin Kamara (NO)

19	David Montgomery (DET)

20	Joe Mixon (CIN)

21	D'Andre Swift (PHI)

22	Jaleel McLaughlin (DEN)

23	Aaron Jones (GB)

24   James Conner (ARI)

The second sample utilized the same metrics as the first sample but instead focused solely on the previous five weeks of the season (weeks 8-12) to determine changes in recent production and to identify the highest-performing RBs heading into the fantasy playoffs. The following are the top 23 RBs from weeks 8-12:

1	Christian McCaffrey (SF)

2	Austin Ekeler (LAC)

3	Saquon Barkley (NYG)

4	Jahmyr Gibbs (DET)

5	Jaylen Warren (PIT)

6	Joe Mixon (CIN)

7	Breece Hall (NYJ)

8	Rachaad White (TB)

9	Bijan Robinson (ATL)

10	David Montgomery (DET)

11	Keaton Mitchell (BAL)

12	Travis Etienne Jr. (JAC)

13	James Conner (ARI)

14	Brian Robinson Jr. (WAS)

15	Josh Jacobs (LV)

16	Tyjae Spears (TEN)

17	Kenneth Walker III (SEA)

18	Aaron Jones (GB)

19	Alvin Kamara (NO)

20	D'Andre Swift (PHI)

21	Tony Pollard (DAL)

22	Raheem Mostert (MIA)

23   Jaleel McLaughlin (DEN)

Primary Targets

De’Von Achane - Already one of the most talented players in the entire league as a rookie, Achane has shown elite upside albeit a small sample. Behind only Christian McCaffrey in PPG (PPR) at 20.6 pts, 2nd in yards created per touch (6.06 yds), 2nd in YCO/Att (7.26 yds), and 2nd in elusive rating per PFF (281.4). Achane’s main claim to fame is his Olympic-caliber 4.32 speed (99th percentile). Despite missing the previous four weeks due to injury and an early exit in his first game back, Achane is 10th in breakaway runs and 7th in TDs. His sub-2x 1st-round picks price tag trade window may have closed, but he is still worth pursuing given his immense upside and being virtually matchup-proof as a weapon that can be deployed on the ground and through the air.

Kyren Williams - The biggest surprise at the RB position this year will continue to shock fantasy opponents throughout the playoffs with his 4th best 18.5 PPG (PPR). Kyren has received insane usage throughout this season, including being #1 in snap share (85.9%) and #1 in routes per game (27.7). He is tied with Kenneth Walker III for 3rd in 4.3 evaded tackles per game. After a tough matchup with Baltimore in week 14, Kyren has the great fortune of finishing the season with Washington, New Orleans, and the New York Giants. He may have the murkiest future of all the RBs on this list, but the ‘live today, gone tomorrow’ nature of the RB position may be the price paid to secure a championship this season.

Alvin Kamara - One of the most consistent RBs this year and enjoying his best season since 2020 is Alvin Kamara. He is just behind Achane at 20.5 PPG (PPR) this season and is 2nd in TPRR (33%). Kamara is 1st in target share amongst all RBs at 21.5%. The only slight concern about Kamara’s game is his slight dip in all of these categories over the last 5 weeks (18.1 PPG, 29% TPRR, 15.2% tgt share). Kamara’s remaining schedule makes up for this minor decline with matchups against the Panthers, Giants, Rams, and the Buccaneers.

Secondary Options

David Montgomery - One of the biggest risers in performance over the latter half of the season has been David Montgomery. Despite sharing a backfield with one of the most talented RBs in the league (Jahmyr Gibbs), Montgomery has averaged a respectable 17.2 PPG (PPR) thanks largely to his as the clear-cut goal-line back for the Lions (4th in TDs amongst RBs). Since week 8, Montgomery has been 3rd at the position in YCO/Att at 4.03 yards and 7th in breakaway run rate (49.5%). Montgomery will face a tough Cowboys defense in week 17, but leading up to championship week are favorable matchups with the Bears, Broncos, and Vikings.

Rachaad White - A running back who is flying completely under the radar, likely due to his lack of market appeal, is Rachaad White. The Tampa Bay Buccaneer has been one of the best running backs since week 8, averaging the 3rd highest PPG (PPR) at the position with 18.9 pts. White has been a focal point in the passing attack, running an average of 23.2 routes per game throughout the season (4th best), and since week 8 has had a 13% target share. His 81% snap share is only behind Christian McCaffrey over the last five weeks. Agents can do far worse at the RB position compared to White’s fantasy playoffs against Atlanta, Green Bay, Jacksonville, and New Orleans.

D’Andre Swift - His PPG since week 8 may not inspire confidence heading into the playoffs (13.2 pt average since week 8 vs. 15 pt average over whole season), but Swift remains a buy in this scarce RB market. His ability as a runner has not diminished as the season has progressed (increased from 3.4 to 3.5 evaded tackles/g & from a 57.3 to a 67.2 elusive rating over the last 5 weeks), but mainly his role in the receiving game has been the major contributor to his minor downswing in points. This is due in large part to the Eagles facing the most brutal 4-week stretch any team has faced all season with the Chiefs, Bills, 49ers, and next up, the Cowboys. It would be difficult for any RB not named Christian McCaffrey to remain a focal point in an offense that is stretched to the brink with these offensive juggernauts. What makes Swift a buy is the calm after the storm: a highly favorable playoff stretch with the Seahawks, the Giants, and the Cardinals in the final week.

Backup Options:

Josh Jacobs - Josh Jacobs may not be elite in any singular category, but his well-rounded repertoire, consistency, and high-value usage are good enough to land him on the backup options. Since week 8, Jacobs has had the 4th highest snap share at the position (78%). Since week 1, the Raiders RB has been 3rd in the league with 40 red zone touches. Touches, TDs, and a favorable playoff stretch versus the Vikings, Chargers, Chiefs, and Colts may be enough for you to consider adding the young veteran RB.

Tony Pollard - Of all the RBs on this list, exercise the most caution with Tony Pollard. A player that many (including this Agency) touted as a top 5 option coming into the season, Pollard has unfortunately fallen short of those expectations but has still performed as an RB1. His increased usage in the passing game (22.2 routes/g since week 8) and 2nd highest red zone touches finally bearing fruit in the form of TDs is what bears consideration moving forward. With a remaining schedule that includes high-octane offenses in Philadelphia, Buffalo, Miami, and Detroit, Pollard could be an appealing trade target if his work in the passing game and red zone continues.

Austin Ekeler - It may not feel like Austin Ekeler has performed well over the last 5 weeks, or the season as a whole, but with the Chargers being desperate to make the playoffs and the offense being completely devoid of weapons outside of Keenan Allen, the team has continued to rely on the dual-threat RB. Since week 8, Ekeler has been 3rd amongst RBs with 23.4 routes/g, tied for 4th in red zone touches (14), 5th in snap share (71%), 5th in target share (15.3%), and 9th in TPRR (25%). His biggest saving grace however may be the most favorable playoff schedule any RB on this list has: Denver, Las Vegas, Buffalo, and Denver. Ekeler is the oldest RB on this list, and appears to have lost a step or two, but remains a viable option given his usage & schedule if another RB can not be secured.

Up & Coming Recruits:

Jaylen Warren - Jaylen Warren would be a secondary option if it were not for the injury to signal-caller Kenny Pickett, but such is the nature of the football business. Warren has begun to separate himself as one of the more talented backs in the league. His 30% TPRR and 5.46 yards created per touch are each the 4th highest marks of all RBs this season. Warren is one of the shiftiest RBs in the league with 4.5 evaded tackles per game, which is tied for 1st along with Breece Hall. This aspect of his game is further verified in his 312.5 elusiveness rating since week 8, which is good enough for 2nd best over that span. His ability to dodge tackles is matched by his power with 5.02 YCO/Att (2nd in NFL since week 8 amongst RBs) and speed with a 10% breakaway run rate (2nd best in NFL). All three of these aspects of Warren’s game make him one of the most balanced RBs in the league.

Keaton Mitchell - The Ravens RB is one of the most intriguing prospects heading into next year. Since week 1, Keaton Mitchell has the highest yards created per touch (7.38), YCO/Att (8.35), and elusiveness rating (382.7) in the entire league at RB. Mitchell has only improved as the season has progressed with a position-high 399.3 elusiveness rating and 78% breakaway run rate over the last 5 weeks of the season per PFF. If Keaton Mitchell can keep up this spectacular run heading into the playoffs, his future could be bright as the lead RB for the run-heavy Ravens.

Tyjae Spears - In the shadow of King Henry could arise a new heir to the Titans’ RB throne. At 4.58 yards created per touch and 3.77 yards after contact per attempt, Spears is 5th and 4th best in each respective category. His 172.5 elusiveness rating is ranked 3rd best since week 8 according to PFF. Spears’ breakaway run rate of 49.4% (4th best since week 8) perfectly complements his arsenal of elusiveness and power. Spears has all the talent to reign as a productive leadback once he has been given the opportunity.

Every one of these up-and-coming RBs fits the mold of possessing game-changing agility, power, speed, and versatility. With a 2024 RB class that many anticipate will be disappointing, it would be advantageous to acquire as many shares of these three RBs as possible.

Waiver Targets

Spymaster Vanek will provide the latest intel through his America’s Game report. In terms of FAAB bidding, review your league’s previous waiver behavior to navigate the wire best. The waiver wire will become more bare as the season continues, especially in best ball formats.

Mitch Trubisky - 17% rostership, spend up to 10-13% FAAB (Pickett could miss multiple weeks)

C.J. Beathard - 2% rostership, spend up to 8-10% FAAB (The severity of Lawrence’s injury and Beathard’s ability to play QB are both complete unknowns)

Parker Washington - 30% rostership, 0-1% FAAB (The severity of Kirk’s injury & the lack of clarity surrounding the JAX QB are both worth considering)

Jameis Winston - 36% rostership, 10-15% FAAB (Matchup with Carolina may be a better option over picking up Trubisky or Beathard)

Brevin Jordan - 37% rostership, 0-1% FAAB (Decent waiver add if Schultz misses any more time)

Demarcus Robinson - 5% rostership, 1-3% FAAB (Has out-snapped Tutu Atwell the last 2 weeks)

T-Rock 11/28/23 T-Rock 11/28/23

Week 12 Dossier

It’s dark and you can barely make your way through the thick crowd at the Last Dance nightclub. The blasts of mariachi trumpets and electric guitars ring in your ears as you are being escorted past the stage. You reach a stairwell guarded by two more men who pat you down and grant you passage with a slight nod. You descend into an entirely new world, hidden away deep below. In it you see a long wooden bar with low-lit glass shelves and at the end of it a red leather booth with a man in a white suit.

Frenemies

Off The Record

It’s dark and you can barely make your way through the thick crowd at the Last Dance nightclub. The blasts of mariachi trumpets and electric guitars ring in your ears as you are being escorted past the stage. You reach a stairwell guarded by two more men who pat you down and grant you passage with a slight nod. You descend into an entirely new world, hidden away deep below. In it you see a long wooden bar with low-lit glass shelves and at the end of it a red leather booth with a man in a white suit.

“And who is this unexpected guest that has welcomed themself into my sanctuary? Have you decided to wake up and stop pretending to make a difference at the Agency?” the man in a white suit said. You reply, “I’m here to offer you a proposition - help you take down the competition.” The suited man bursts out into uncomfortable laughter “The last time I traded with you, I lost nearly everything! It took me over a year to recover my assets!!! But now I am the closest I have ever been to winning a championship!” he exclaimed. He tilted his head and slowly said, “But now you risk everything for us by being here. There will be consequences if the other contenders learn of our meeting.” You explain, “No one knows I am here, not even the Agency.” The man smiled and said “My father was an honest and hard-working man who started from nothing. He spent multiple years building up his assets. Then he put his trust in people like you and got in the way of the Asset Traffickers. The only thing left of him now is his orphan and the pain I inherited to piece it back together. I don’t need your help.” A few moments of silence go by before you say, “I knew your father. What happened to him wasn’t right. That’s why I am here. I want to take down the top guy and my reports are clear that you don’t have the firepower to do it by yourself. Your most valuable resources are bleeding on the IR now. How many more years are you going to come second place to them?” Slowly standing up and buttoning his jacket the man said, “Come with me.”

The man in the suit leads you through a narrow corridor before you finally reach a door. Outside, you are greeted with a mesmerizing view of a million lights flickering in the dark from the valley below. “What chance do you think you have?” the man says as he lights a fat cigar. “I can’t help you. If this Dynasty Lord wants to destroy you, they will. How can you escape the storm? No matter where you go, they can always reach you. So tell me, what do you really want?” You reply, “Information. I want to know who this contender has talked to.”  The man chuckles and says, “If you want to beat the best, it’s not enough to know what they have been doing. You need to know what their next move is.” You then ask, “And I assume you know?” Slowing puffing smoke from his cigar he smiled and said “Of course I do.”

Usage Activity

A player’s usage can have massive implications for how we attack the season. Here are some points of interest worth monitoring:

Packers vs. Lions - David Montgomery only received 27% of the snaps in this matchup, but still managed 15 carries for 71 yards and 1 TD. It was Jamyr Gibbs who received the lion’s share of the snaps with 71%, in which he had 11 carries for 54 yards rushing and 4/8 for 19 yards receiving.
Jordan Love has put together back-to-back top-10 QB performances, including 22/32 for 268 yards passing and 3 TDs (39 yards rushing) against Detroit. In most scoring formats, Love is the QB9 in fantasy, and has an appealing schedule with Kansas City being the most difficult matchup in week 13, followed by the Giants, the Buccaneers, the Panthers, and the Vikings.

Commanders vs. Cowboys - Dak Prescott has been arguably the best QB in the league over the second half of the season. Since week 6, Prescott has led the league with 18 passing TDs (5 more TDs than 2nd placed Allen & Herbert over that span), has the most passing yards per game with 312.3, and is 2nd behind Sam Howell with 1874 total passing yards. Only Josh Allen has more fantasy points at the position since week 6 (178.5 pts vs Prescott’s 169.6). During this part of the season, Prescott has been the QB1, QB3, QB2, QB1, QB17, and QB3. In a year that is filled with old WRs, expendable RBs, and detested QBs all producing at high levels, it would definitely be worth considering pursuing the dead-zone QB in Prescott ahead of his highly favorable rest-of-season fantasy schedule.
Sam Howell isn’t far behind Prescott though - he’s been the 4th best QB in fantasy since week 6 (Jalen Hurts is 3rd). Howell has an insane 295 pass attempts over this span (Allen 2nd w/ 258) for an NFL-high 1989 yards passing over the past 7 weeks. But with a bye in week 14, and tough matchups with the Jets and 49ers in weeks 16 & 17, it remains to be seen if Sam Howell can rise to the occasion to deliver fantasy glory for contenders.

Saints vs. Falcons - In this pivotal divisional matchup, each team’s best offensive players were heavily featured. For the Falcons, it was Bijan Robinson who led Atlanta to victory. Robinson’s 16 carries for 91 yards and 1 TD on the ground and 3/6 for 32 yards & 1 TD through the air (63% of the snaps) is the second promising performance in a row for the RB and should be encouraging for all fantasy owners.
For the Saints, Chris Olave and Alvin Kamara did their best to deliver New Orleans a victory. Olave was well on his way to having his best performance of the season with his 7/9 for 114 receiving yards but was unfortunately knocked out of the game with a concussion in the third quarter. Kamara continued his epic RB campaign with 15 carries for 69 yards rushing and 4 catches on 5 targets for an additional 50 yards receiving. With Olave likely to miss next week versus the Lions, Kamara could have a monster game.

Jaguars vs. Texans  - Trevor Lawrence and Calvin Ridley have seemingly sorted out their earlier season woes and have been the #2 fantasy producers at their respective positions the last two weeks in crucial divisional games. Our agents will keep a close eye on this Jacksonville team as they look to complete their AFC North tour with Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Baltimore next on their schedule.
Nothing further to report on the Texans at this time.

Buccaneers vs. Colts - This is the time of the year when certain RBs operate like runaway freight trains, barreling through any defenses in their path. Jonathan Taylor is playing his best football of the year right now - 15 carries for 91 yards and 2 TDs on 58% of the snaps this week. It will be exciting to watch both Taylor and Derrick Henry steamroll defenders when the Colts visit the Titans in their week 13 division game.
Nothing to report on the Buccaneers at this time.

Rams vs. Cardinals - In his first game coming off IR, Kyren Williams picked up where he left off and erupted as the RB1 on the week with 16 carries for 143 yards on the ground and 6 catches on 6 targets for 61 yards and 2 TDs through the air (61% snap share). Week 13 and 14 will not be easy for the Rams, as they face the Browns and Ravens, but will have much easier sledding in the fantasy playoffs with matchups against the Commanders, the Saints, and the Giants.
Marquise Brown and Trey McBride were the top receiving options for Kyler in this matchup. Brown had 6 catches on 12 targets for 88 yards receiving, whereas McBride had 7 catches on 9 targets for 60 yards receiving. Both are dynamic pass-catching weapons and figure to remain Kyler’s favorite targets for the rest of the season.

Browns vs. Broncos - David Njoku has been the favorite pass-catcher for the Brown’s QBs over the past month. Over the last 4 weeks, Njoku has led the team (min. 10 routes run sample) in TGT % (25.3%), TPRR (0.29), receptions (23), and YAC (137 yds). Only Amari Cooper has produced at a similar fantasy level as Njoku over this span of time. Njoku went 6/9 for 59 yards receiving on 85% of the snaps in week 12 versus Denver.
Despite some of the best RB metrics in the league, Jaleel McLaughlin has seemingly taken the place of Marvin Mims as yet another highly talented and underutilized weapon on this Broncos offense. McLaughlin saw a season-low 3% snap share, whereas fellow teammates Javonte Williams and Samaje Perine each enjoyed productive days with 18 carries for 65 yards and 7 carries for 55 yards plus 1 TD respectively.

Ravens vs. Chargers - There may be a change of the guard at RB in Baltimore. Keaton Mitchell was hyper-efficient with the opportunities given to him (9 carries for 64 yards rushing and 2 catches on 2 targets for 25 more yards) and out-snapped Gus Edwards by 19% of the plays (46% vs. 27%). Edwards should still maintain his goal-line duties moving forward, and for that reason is still a viable fantasy option throughout the rest of the season. The following RB report will take a deeper dive at what makes Keaton Mitchell, and a select few other RBs, so impressive this season.

RB Bona Fides

The Running Back position is a tumultuous asset, but still necessary for winning a championship. It is for this reason that this agency has based much of our RB Program on the same rigorous standards of our QB, WR, & TE selection process. The following sample will only include the top 45 RBs sorted by PP/G and data from weeks 1-11.

PPG (PPR) - Christian McCaffrey is by far the best fantasy-performing RB in terms of points per game (24.2 pts). De’Von Achane (20.6 pts), Alvin Kamara (20.5 pts), Kyren Williams (18.5 pts), Raheem Mostert (18.1 pts), and Jamyr Gibbs (18) round out the top 6 as the top producers so far this season.

The following categories give us a glimpse at the top pass-catching RBs this season

Routes/G - Kyren Williams has been utilized heavily in the Rams' pass offense with 27.7 routes per game. Alvin Kamara (24.9), Bijan Robinson (24.2), Rachaad White (23.2), Travis Etienne Jr. (21.7), and Antonio Gibson (21.4) all edge out McCaffrey, Barkley, and Gibbs for the top 6 spots. 

Targets/Route Run - Jaleel McLaughlin is the most heavily targeted RB in the league at 36% targets per route run. Alvin Kamara (33%), Javonte Williams (31%), Jaylen Warren (30%), Keaton Mitchell (29%), and Aaron Jones (26%) are just ahead of Gibbs for the top 6 ranking.

The following categories assist in finding the best rushers this year.

Yards Created/Touch - Keaton Mitchell has been one of the most efficient RBs at 7.38 yards created per touch. Achane (6.06), Gibson (5.87), Warren (5.46), Tyjae Spears (4.58), and McLaughlin (4.53) all rank in the top 6.

Evaded Tackles/G - Jaylen Warren and Breece Hall are both tied as the shiftiest RBs this season at 4.5 evaded tackles per game. Mostert & McCaffrey both averaged 4.4 tackles evaded per game, whereas Kenneth Walker III & Kyren Williams each averaged 4.3 tackles evaded per game. 

Yards After Contact/Attempt - The most difficult RB to bring down this year is Keaton Mitchell, who is averaging 8.35 yards after contact per attempt. Achane (7.26), Warren (4.44), Spears & McLaughlin (3.77), and James Conner (3.64) round out the top 6

Elusive Rating - PFF uses some of the above categories in order to formulate their elusive rating. So to no surprise, the title for the most elusive RB in the league goes to Keaton Mitchell at a 382.7 rating. Achane (281.4), Warren (198.5), Spears (168.7), McLaughlin (123.8), and Mostert (104.3) round out the top 6. 

Breakaway Runs & TDs - In terms of big play and scoring ability, there are a number of RBs that perform very well in both categories. McCaffrey is number 1 in total TDs and number 2 in breakaway runs. Mostert has the inverse ranking being number 1 in breakaway runs and number 2 in TDs. Saquon Barkley is tied with McCaffrey in breakaway runs, but tied for 12th in TDs. Gibbs is also 12th in TDs and is 4th in breakaway runs. Travis Etienne Jr. and Brian Robinson Jr. are both 4th in TDs and 10th in breakaway runs. Achane and Walker III are tied for 7th in TDs and 10th in breakaway runs.

The following trio of categories are amongst the best in finding the most productive RBs.

Top 5 Snap Share - Kyren Williams has the highest snap share league at 85.9%, followed by McCaffrey (82.5), Barkley (80.8%), Etienne Jr. (78.6%), and Josh Jacobs (77.9%).

Top 5 Target Share - Kamara has the highest target share amongst RBs at 21.5%, ahead of McCaffrey (20.2%), Barkley (17.2%), Gibbs (16.3%), and Austin Ekeler (15.8%).

Top 5 Red Zone Touches - McCaffrey leads RBs with 56 red zone touches, followed by Pollard (47), Jacobs (40), Joe Mixon (36), and Walker III (35).

Christian McCaffrey is the only RB in the top 5 of all three categories, whereas Barkley and Jacobs are the only other RBs in at least two of the three categories.

The Agency will post an RB Bulletin next week based on this intel.

Waiver Targets

Spymaster Vanek will provide the latest intel through his America’s Game report. In terms of FAAB bidding, review your league’s previous waiver behavior to navigate the wire best. The waiver wire will become more bare as the season continues, especially in best ball formats.

Greg Dortch - 39% rostership, spend up to 1% FAAB (Was a favorite target of Kyler last year and has been decent the last 2 weeks since Kyler’s return)

T-Rock 11/21/23 T-Rock 11/21/23

Week 11 Dossier

You shut the door to your small apartment, leaving the grueling five-day day-work trip and all of its demands behind you. Before you even take off your coat, you’re at your bar cart reaching for the Scotch your old Case Officer gifted you last Christmas. A deep exhale leaves your body as you think to yourself ‘Thank God that’s over.’ Only a brief moment of solitude passes before your phone rings. It’s the Chief of Station. “Agent, there’s been a murder of a failed-contender earlier this evening. I need you to go investigate the scene and then visit the coroners afterward. I’m sending you the address now.” “Sir, isn’t that for local law enforcement?” you reply. “This isn’t a regular murder, Agent. There’s evidence that ties the victim with high-level asset traffickers.” You say, “I already have my coat on sir, I’ll get right on it,” and then hang up.

Tradehunter

Dealing With A Pro

You shut the door to your small apartment, leaving the grueling five-day work trip and all of its demands behind you. Before you even take off your coat, you’re at your bar cart reaching for the Scotch your old Case Officer gifted you last Christmas. A deep exhale leaves your body as you think to yourself ‘Thank God that’s over.’ Only a brief moment of solitude passes before your phone rings. It's the Chief of Station. “Agent, there’s been a murder of a failed contender earlier this evening. I need you to go investigate the scene and then visit the coroners afterward. I’m sending you the address now.” “Sir, isn’t that for local law enforcement?” you reply. “This isn’t a regular murder, Agent. There’s evidence that ties the victim with high-level asset traffickers.” You say, “I already have my coat on sir, I’ll get right on it,” and then hang up.

The crime scene was a luxury apartment, located on the 77th floor. This victim certainly made his wealth known. Fantasy football podcasts echoed through the classy apartment from the victim’s computer - it’s too bad that none of this advice will matter anymore to the deceased. Sprawled across the dining table was the victim’s fantasy portfolio. It didn’t take long to realize that the victim was in a bad place with brutal injuries, zero draft picks, a squad on the wrong side of 30, and an empty bottle of vodka by the couch. It would appear that out of drunken desperation and boredom, they messaged the league chat craving a trade. There were no signs of a struggle at the scene - the assailant had patiently stalked their prey in DMs, fantasizing about this moment for weeks. The perp leveraged the victim’s own first-round draft pick as the murder weapon, right into their heart. As a trophy, the murderer took for themselves a top-tier QB, a league-winning WR, and to add further insult to the victim, a 3rd-round pick. This was not the attacker’s first time, nor would it be their last.

Usage Activity

Due to limited resources and an expanded Agency Bulletin, there will not be a week 11 Usage Activity Report. Instead, the focus of this dossier will be potential trade targets at the WR position for this critical window of the fantasy season.

Agency Bulletin

The following assets of interest are in various considerations for your Rest-Of-Season Mission. Elite assets will not be included in this report given their formidable prices. All intel for this agency bulletin was gathered via the Fantasy Points Data Suite, using the top 60 WRs ranked by fantasy points per game. Do not engage in a trade until the following intel & parameters have been carefully reviewed:

The South Harmon Agency - Security Clearance will dictate access to this agency’s intel, but South Harmon operations are conducted on a daily basis with the objective of disrupting the fantasy space. Enroll in their academy as a recruit on Discord to gain access to their resources and train to become a top-tier fantasy operator. https://www.patreon.com/SouthHarmon
 
WoRP - Scoring settings & team needs will dictate which assets to pursue. WoRP is a valuable resource in not only establishing priority targets but also secondary and backup options if necessary. This resource can only be accessed through: https://www.southharmonff.com/worp

Managers to Target - Begin negotiations with managers who are on the opposite side of the standings. If your roster is rebuilding, prioritize trading with teams in the middle who are desperate to contend & whose picks have higher upside. Managers at the bottom of the standings will become more eager to trade away their players to acquire picks as the season progresses. If your roster is in the middle, negotiate with other middling teams - if you are unable to acquire players to contend, then adapt & pursue the other direction with acquiring picks.

Scouting Weeks 12-17 - Prioritize the players with the best matchups during the most critical stage of the season.  

FantasyCalc/KeepTradeCut - Where an asset ranks in the field ultimately determines its value. Dynasty Rankings and The Trade Database (which lists the most recent acquisitions of the asset of interest) are invaluable resources in leveraging suitable deals.

The Weekly Dossier -  This classified document carefully lays out weekly reports and directives based on intelligence compiled from the most advanced agencies in the field (NFL, NextGenStats, ESPN, PFF, FantasyPros, FantasyLife, PlayerProfiler, Underdog).

Top Tier Targets

At the top of the WR food chain in 2023 are Tyreek Hill and A.J. Brown. Hill leads all WRs at an insane 0.87 fantasy points per route run, far ahead of the 2nd place A.J. Brown, who registers 0.67 FP/RR. However, over the span of weeks 6-10, CeeDee Lamb has been the most dangerous WR in the league, with 0.82 FP/RR. Any three of these prized WRs could deliver a championship on a silver platter, but they would also extract a heavy cost. Garrett Wilson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Puka Nacua also carry league-winning upside according to our data, but likewise require a heavy price. Before selling your soul to attain these infinity-stone assets, carefully consider the following alternatives.

Priority Targets - Up to a 1st + 2nd in Value

Stefon Diggs - The 5th ranked WR in our data when weighing both the season as a whole and the past 5 weeks, Diggs ranks as our highest priority trade target. Diggs is 2nd amongst wideouts in routes run per team dropback (RTE% - 91.5%), 4th in air yards (1081 yards), has 9 End-Zone targets, is 5th in 1st Read % (38.2%), and 4th in 1st Downs (43). The biggest upside associated with Diggs is his remaining matchup schedule: in weeks 12-17, the Bills face the Eagles, have a bye week, then face the Chiefs, the Cowboys, the Chargers, and end the fantasy season with the Patriots. Weeks 12-16 are all matchups with ‘shootout’ potential, which could lead to massive usage for Stefon Diggs. The week 17 revenge match with the Patriots could be perfect for fantasy managers looking for a blowup game from Diggs in their championships. With dynasty rankings that range from WR8 on FantasyCalc and WR13 on KeepTradeCut, Diggs is arguably the safest and most attainable elite WR.

Brandon Aiyuk - A tier below, but carrying a huge upside, is our 15th-ranked WR. Brandon Aiyuk over the first 10 weeks of the season has the 4th highest aDOT (15 yards), the 2nd best yards per route run (3.48), and the 3rd best fantasy points per route run (0.64). Aiyuk’s numbers have slightly dipped over the last five weeks, but outside of week 16 versus Baltimore, our analysts project plus-matchups for the rest of the season for Aiyuk (@SEA, @PHI, SEA, @ARI, BAL, @WAS). At WR14 prices on KTC and WR22 on FantasyCalc, Aiyuk is ideal for any manager wanting to be boujee on a budget.

Michael Pittman - Rounding out our priority targets is our 10th-ranked WR. Michael Pittman since week 6 has been number one in RTE% (93.7%), 4th in YAC (172 yds), and tied for 1st in the league in targets that come on design read plays (10). Pittman’s QB and rest-of-season schedule is what ultimately pushes him to third on our priority target rankings, but at WR17 prices on FantasyCalc and WR21 rankings on KTC, he is far outperforming his dynasty ranking.

Honorable Mention - Davante Adams, 11th place rank: #1 in TGT% (30.3%), #2 in TPRR (0.31), #3 in 1stRead% (41.1%). QB play hard to bank on during this critical stage of the szn.

Secondary Targets - A Mid-Low 2nd and up to 2x 2nds in Value

Keenan Allen - At age 31, Keenan Allen is having arguably the best season of his great career as our 3rd-ranked WR in 2023. The only reason Allen is a secondary target and not a primary is solely because of his age and the large value risk that would befall any manager if Keenan were to suffer a significant injury. Since week 1, Allen is 3rd in TGT% (29.7%), 4th in TPRR (0.3), 4th in 1stRead% (38.6%), 2nd in PPR fantasy points per game (22.8 pts), and 3rd in Expected Fantasy Points per Game (20.4 pts). In addition to Allen’s age is the downside of the Charger’s remaining schedule, which will all prove to be difficult matchups. Keenan Allen managers will likely demand a 1st round pick for Allen’s production, but at WR19 prices on FantasyCalc and WR25 ranking on KTC, it may be feasible to acquire Allen from a desperate seller at cheaper prices.

Mike Evans - As the 14th-best WR in our rankings, Mike Evans has remained one of the agency’s top targets all season long given his inexpensive value. Evans’ metrics do not jump off the page in any singular category, but instead, he ranks within the top 12-24 in nearly every major category, making him the perfect ‘under-the-radar’ league winner. In the same vein as Keenan Allen, the downside of Evans is his age and difficult remaining matchup schedule. The upside of the WR27 on FantasyCalc & WR33 on KTC resides with his consistency, talent, and QB Baker Mayfield’s affinity with throwing Evans targets while in the red zone.

Courtland Sutton - As our 34th WR, Courtland Sutton is our lowest-ranked WR for this bulletin, but still worthy of consideration. Since week 6, Sutton is 3rd amongst wideouts in terms of air yard share (47%), is posting a respectable 26.3 TGT% (15th), and is 9th in FP/RR (0.61). And outside of their week 12 matchup with Cleveland, the rest of the season schedule for the Broncos is one of the most appealing in the league for a team that is on a 4-game win streak. As the WR39 on FantasyCalc and WR52 on KTC, Sutton and his QB Russell Wilson are performing far beyond the public sentiment.

DeAndre Hopkins - The trend of older vet WRs continues with the 20th-ranked DeAndre Hopkins. Since week 6, the seasoned WR is 1st in aDOT (17.5 yds), 10th in YAC/REC (6.17 yds), and since week 1 is 6th in air yards (1068 yds), and 9th in expected fantasy points per route run (0.53). Like his peer counterparts Keenan Allen and Adam Thielen, Hopkins is uniquely situated as the only reliable pass-catcher on their respective teams. With a moderate rest-of-season schedule and a rookie QB, Hopkins is a mixed-bag of upside potential, but at WR48 rankings on FantasyCalc & KTC, he’s one of the cheapest assets in his tier.

Honorable Mention - Diontae Johnson, 18th place rank: since week 6 = 9th in RTE% (89.6%), 4th in AY Share (46.6%), and 5th in expected FP/G (17.7pts). Pickett and Canada are a gruesome twosome that I would prefer to not hinge my championship hopes on.

Backup Targets - Up to 2x 3rds in Value

Adam Thielen - A perfect storm of opportunity has formed for the 33-year-old WR. The 22nd ranked WR in our data, Adam Thielen since week 1 is 9th in RTE% (88.5%), 9th in FP/G (17.8 pts), 9th in 1stDowns (38), 12th in YAC (260 yds), 13th in expected FP/G (16.6pts), and 16th in TGT% (24.6%). Given how poor the QB play has been in Carolina, it doesn’t particularly matter how favorable the rest of the season schedule is for the Panthers WRs. As the WR 41 on FantasyCalc and WR58 on KTC, it may be possible to once again acquire Thielen at the price of multiple third-round picks if he is still residing on a rebuilding team.

Odell Beckham - The 40th-ranked WR in our data, Odell Beckham has come on strong over the last few weeks of play. Since week 6, Beckham is 3rd in YAC/REC (7.88 yds), 3rd in Endzone Tgts (5), 3rd in expected FP/RR (0.63), 6th in YPRR (2.92 yds), 8th in TPRR (0.3 tgts), 11th in FP/RR (0.57 pts), 13th in aDOT (13 yds), and 22nd in air yards (389 yds). Odell Beckham has a favorable rest-of-season schedule, with multiple potential ‘shootout’ matchups. As the WR53 on FantasyCalc and the WR98 on KTC, pray that your potential trade partner only uses KTC to gauge the dynasty market and acquire OBJ for dirt cheap.

Unique Scenario - If the first target cannot be acquired, move on to the teammate

DK Metcalf & Tyler Lockett - Seattle’s WRs are all heating up in time for the fantasy playoffs thanks to improved play from Geno Smith. If Geno can deliver clutch QB play in some upcoming prime matchups, both DK Metcalf (WR16 ranking) and Tyler Lockett (WR24) could take off. Since week 6, Metcalf & Lockett are 8th & 14th in air yards respectively, 9th & 23rd in aDOT, 16th & 26th in TGT%, and 10th & 20th in expected FP/G. DK by himself is 1st in Endzone targets (6) and 9th in YAC/REC (6.29 yds). At WR14 FantasyCalc values and WR17 KTC rankings, Metcalf will likely demand a 1st + 2nd, whereas Lockett will likely only cost a 2nd at his WR46 FantasyCalc & WR49 KTC values.

Nathaniel Dell & Noah Brown - If the pair in Seattle are heating up, then the Houston Duo is on fire. Nathaniel “Tank” Dell (WR17 ranking) and Noah Brown (WR25) have both been elevated by the MVP-caliber play of C.J. Stroud. Since week 6, Tank Dell and Noah Brown rank 2nd & 11th in aDOT respectively and 6th & 11th in fantasy points/G. Dell by himself is 13th in RTE% (87.6%), 16th in air yards (447 yards), 10th TGT% (27.6%), 11th in TPRR (0.29 tgts), and 7th in 1stRead% (36.1%). Brown is 1st in YPRR (4.03 yds) and 2nd YAC/REC (9.22 yds). At WR20/26 values on KTC/FantasyCalc, Dell will cost anywhere from 2x 2nds to as much as a 1st-round pick. Brown on the other hand will only cost multiple 3rd round picks at WR55/64 prices on FantasyCalc/KTC.

Waiver Targets

Spymaster Vanek will provide the latest intel through his America’s Game report. In terms of FAAB bidding, review your league’s previous waiver behavior to navigate the wire best. The waiver wire will become more bare as the season continues, especially in best ball formats.

Jake Browning - 8% rostership, spend up to 25-50% FAAB (Burrow out ROS, Browning carries some upside as a competent backup)

Tim Boyle/Joe Flacco - 10% rostership, spend up to 5% FAAB (If you miss out on acquiring Browning this week and Tommy DeVito from last week, then cautiously go after Boyle/Flacco).

Ty Johnson - 3% rostership, 1% FAAB (Bills still haven’t utilized Fournette, but they also remain as arguably the worst rushing team in the league.)

T-Rock 11/14/23 T-Rock 11/14/23

Week 10 Dossier

At this stage of the season, you can no longer view your league mates as friendly competitors all striving towards similar goals. There are allies, who will help you achieve your mission, and there are enemies who wish to destroy your goals. The highest-level threat known to the agency is the Asset Trafficker. These individuals specialize in the illicit trade of both high-value players and the stockpiling of draft picks. Their smuggling business includes leveraging early-projected draft picks, elite QBs, young WRs, bell-cow RBs, and ultra-productive TEs. Early after a league’s inception, these individuals will own up to half of the high-value draft picks heading into the off-season after the first dynasty championship. In the first year, they have built a network of relationships in which they have supplied the contenders with the “valuable” players they needed for their championship run. But in actuality, the contenders who fail to reach their ultimate goal now find themselves in the pocket of these Asset Traffickers who now own their entire future of draft picks. The most dangerous Asset Trafficker is the manager who not only stockpiles assets but also information. These individuals are known as Dynasty Lords.

Show of Force

Enemies of the League

At this stage of the season, you can no longer view your league mates as friendly competitors all striving towards similar goals. There are allies, who will help you achieve your mission, and there are enemies who wish to destroy your goals. The highest-level threat known to the agency is the Asset Trafficker. These individuals specialize in the illicit trade of both high-value players and the stockpiling of draft picks. Their smuggling business includes leveraging early-projected draft picks, elite QBs, young WRs, bell-cow RBs, and ultra-productive TEs. Early after a league’s inception, these individuals will own up to half of the high-value draft picks heading into the off-season after the first dynasty championship. In the first year, they have built a network of relationships in which they have supplied the contenders with the “valuable” players they needed for their championship run. But in actuality, the contenders who fail to reach their ultimate goal now find themselves in the pocket of these Asset Traffickers who now own their entire future of draft picks. The most dangerous Asset Trafficker is the manager who not only stockpiles assets but also information. These individuals are known as Dynasty Lords.

These Dynasty Lords keep detailed records of every manager, and their strengths at each roster position. But most importantly, these individuals understand what their league mates desire. These league kingpins understand the market and aren’t afraid to make dangerous decisions in their pursuit of complete control. There are rumors that some of these Dynasty Lord’s surveillance is so encompassing, that they can see every trade executed by a manager, regardless if they are in league with them or not. There will be managers with a contender mentality who wish to police these types of individuals and limit their reach of influence. But the Dynasty Lord knows every one of their league mate's weaknesses. They will whisper doubt in the minds of their competitors. And lastly, they will continue to offer the promise of prosperity to their league mates if they continue to align with the Dynasty Lord’s goals. Anyone who doesn’t wish to accept these deals is met with terrible consequences.

Usage Activity

The usage of a player is one of the most critical pieces of intel that we can use to our advantage. Here are some points of interest worth considering:

Panthers vs. Bears - Since week 7, D’Onta Foreman has been 4th amongst all RBs in rushing attempts (66), yards (286), and rushing TDs (3). However, in weeks 2-5, in which Khalil Herbert received the lion's share of opportunities as the starter, Foreman was a healthy scratch. It remains to be seen what Forman’s opportunities will be once Herbert and Justin Fields return.    
Nothing further to report for the Panthers.

Colts vs. Patriots - Jonathan Taylor has full command of the Colts backfield, receiving 88% of the snaps and 23 carries (both season-highs for Taylor). Meanwhile, Zack Moss only received 1 carry on 16% of the snaps.
Since leading Patriots receiver Kendrick Bourne tore his ACL in Week 8 versus the Dolphins, Demario Douglas has led his team the past 2 weeks with 65 routes (Hunter Henry is 2nd w/ 59 routes), 16 targets (Hunter Henry is 2nd w/ 11 tgts),  139 receiving yards (Hunter Henry and JuJu Smith-Schuster are both for 2nd w/ 60 yds), 2.14 yards per route run (Smith-Schuster is 2nd w/ 1.36 YPRR), and 98 yards after the catch (Smith-Schuster is 2nd w/ 26 YAC).

Texans vs. Bengals - After missing weeks 5 & 10 due to injury, and not registering a single yard in week 1, Tee Higgins has fallen behind Tyler Boyd in targets (50 - Higgins, 59 - Boyd), receptions (Higgins - 27, Boyd - 44), receiving yards (Higgins - 328, Boyd - 417), and YAC (Higgins - 118, Boyd - 186). However, despite these missed opportunities, Higgins has a higher aDOT than Boyd (Higgins - 11.3, Boyd - 7.3), air yards share (Higgins - 35.6%, Boyd - 19.2%), target percentage (Higgins - 19%, Boyd - 16.9%), targets per route run (Higgins - 0.23, Boyd - 0.18), yards per route run (Higgins - 1.54, Boyd -1.30), and is right behind Boyd in PPR Fantasy Points/G (Higgins - 10.3, Boyd - 10.9). All three of the primary Bengals WRs figure to remain strong considerations in all league formats whereas Trenton Irwin, Andrei Iosivas, and Charlie Jones (who is now back from IR) all carry value in deep best-ball formats.
Since returning from injury in week 6, Noah Brown has received 56%, 72%, 72%, and 75% of the snaps in his four latest contests, 24 total targets, 18 total catches, 419 total yards (leads the team over this span - Schultz 2nd w/ 267 yards), and 1 TD. Noah Brown, Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Dalton Schultz are all viable fantasy options in this high-volume & efficient offense. Robert Woods and John Metchie appear to have taken a backseat to their more explosive teammates. 

Saints vs. Vikings - Through 10 games, Alexander Mattison has 130 carries (12th in NFL), 461 rushing yards (23rd in NFL), 3.5 yards per carry (37th amongst RBs with a minimum of 50 carries), and 0 rushing TDs. Mattison’s receiving metrics are slightly better than his rushing production with 36 targets (9th amongst RBs), 24 targets (18th), 164 receiving yards (21st), and 3 receiving TDs (2nd-tied). After Mattison exited with a concussion, Ty Chandler took over the lead back duties and led the team with 15 rushing attempts for 45 rushing yards and 1 TD. In the high likelihood that Mattison is forced to his next game, Chandler will look to greatly benefit as the lead back in his sensational matchup against the league-worst Denver Broncos rush defense.     
Nothing further to report for the Saints.

Falcons vs. Cardinals - Since taking over the starting TE role in week 8 for the injured Zach Ertz, Trey McBride is 2nd amongst all TEs with 28 targets, tied for 2nd with 21 receptions, 3rd with 248 receiving yards, 4th in air yards share with 34.5%, and 5th with 103 YAC.
The petitions to feature Bijan Robinson as the focal point of this subpar Falcons offense were finally heard - Robinson received a career-high 22 carries, which he turned into 95 rushing yards and 1 TD. He has yet to produce the “blow-up” game everyone has been waiting to see from the talented prospect and has only had one complete game (week 2) in which he produced through the ground and the air.

FM 10-01 Threat Assessment Report and Tactics

Agency Headquarters
Department of Intelligence & Field Operations
November 2023

The purpose of this Field Manual is to provide Field Agents with the necessary guidelines for enhancing the position of their league station. Standard Field Operations Protocol dictates that before any field operation takes place, there must be an assessment of the league’s “Show of Force.” An inventory of your arsenal of assets, the strengths and weaknesses of your major competitors, and trades with potential allies is critical in every championship campaign. The agency’s greatest resources in evaluating a league’s Show of Force are the various WoRP Capabilities. A summary of WoRP can be found in the second publication of this agency, Underdog Drafts - In The Mouth of Madness.  Review the following Field Manual carefully:

Chapter 1. Preliminary Measures - The first step in conducting a threat assessment is gaining security clearance to the intel necessary for this report (https://www.southharmonff.com/worp). The WoRP Worshipper Resources contain both the “WoRP” & “Simulator” tools necessary to conduct this assessment.

Section I. League Simulator - Using the League Simulator tool developed by Dr. Koopa, Director of the Mind Flayer Project, establishes a baseline of the hierarchy of fantasy strength in your league. If you operate in multiple leagues, begin your assessment with your strongest roster amongst your stations using the “Wins” column of the League Simulator. Devoting your initial resources to the strongest rosters is the best use of your time as a contender. Other considerations for which leagues to focus on include the roster(s) most in need of QB help in SF leagues - QB is the highest priority in these league types & nothing else can succeed until your signal-callers are secured.

Section II. WoRP Calculator - Use the following parameters to operate the WoRP Calculator. If operating in a Best Ball league, use the “True WoRP Table” function. If operating in a Lineup league, use the “Adjusted WoRP Table.” Set the “Roster Efficiency” to “High.” Then run the program using the “Calculate WoRP” function. Once the data has been collected, use the “Download” function located below the list of assets.

Chapter 2. Filtering the Data - Once the data has been downloaded, open the file using a spreadsheet application to view the intel.

It is not necessary, but best practices would dictate deleting the “Team” & “Games” columns so that the most pertinent data for this report is easily viewable.

Copy the remaining “Rank, Name, WoRP, WoRP/G, Position, PosRank” headers and paste the categories three times in the cells adjacent to the original columns of data as pictured below. Each of these four sections of category headers will correspond to a different position (QB, RB, WR, TE).

Highlight the original category headers containing the player data, navigate to the “Sort & FIlter” tools, then the “Filter” function.

First, using the “WoRP/G” filter, sort “Largest to Smallest.” Second, using the “Position” filter, sort “Z to A.”

After the data has been sorted, highlight all of the cells associated with each position as pictured below, use the “cut” function, then paste your selected position under one of the vacant category headers you created earlier.

Once you have completed this task for each position, your spreadsheet should appear like below.

Once you have completed this task for each position, your spreadsheet should appear like below.

At this stage, one can now delete the “Position” columns for each of the player positions to further simplify the viewing of the data.

Chapter 3. Show of Force - After the data has been filtered and cleaned up for use, Field Agents can now begin taking a detailed inventory of their own, their major competitors, and their potential allies’ assets.

Section I. Self Assessment - Beginning with your own roster, highlight each of your player assets in green as pictured above. 

Section II. Threat Assessment - Using the League Simulator, League Standings, and your own judgment, rank your top three competitors in the league. Beginning with the roster of your largest threat, highlight each of their players in the darkest shade of red. Highlight the players of your secondary and tertiary threats, each with their own shade of red. 

Section III. Potential Allies - An inverse of the Threat Assessment is gauging the players that are potentially available via trade who can improve your arsenal. Highlight in blue the players of managers who are actively tanking or are the most amendable to trading. It is essential to target the players who will either provide positional superiority or valuable depth. Do not waste resources in targeting players who rank below your threshold players (aka: Replacement Players - the players who are at the top of your bench and do not consistently make your lineup).

Section IV. Optimal Roster Construction - In the pursuit of the ideal roster, the “Roster Construction” function will help Field Agents further in identifying trade targets to address deficits in the roster & positions of excess that can be cut or traded away. Highlighted in Yellow above for each position is the number of players rostered followed by the optimal roster construction of that position.

Chapter 4. Conclusion - The Threat Assessment Report is an unbiased and powerful method to measure the strengths and weaknesses of the various players in your league. Use it to identify the best course of action and execute it.

Waiver Targets

Spymaster Vanek will provide the latest intel through his America’s Game report. In terms of FAAB bidding, review your league’s previous waiver behavior to navigate the wire best. The waiver wire will become more bare as the season continues, especially in best ball formats.

Tanner Hudson - 7.1% rostership, spend up to 0% FAAB (Has been Burrow’s preferred TE target the last 2 weeks)

A.T. Perry - 49.7% rostership, 0% FAAB (upside rookie profile, could see more snaps if Michael Thomas misses time w/ injury)

T-Rock 11/7/23 T-Rock 11/7/23

Week 9 Dossier

You’re walking the winding brick path by the river, needing to clear your head of the chaos back at the agency. As you stare out at the yellow glow of the street lamps reflecting off the pitch-black water, your phone vibrates. “Can you meet? Harbor Hotel. Rm 507. 30 minutes.” There is never a time for rest at this point in the season. You quickly dart through the side streets and alleys to make sure you aren’t being tailed - can’t afford to blow the cover of your best informant. You take one last look down the hall before you knock on the door, ‘507’ displayed in bold brass. “It’s me,” you mumble. The door swings open and you walk over to the table covered with glossy photos and stapled documents. “The league has certainly been busy with all of these recent trades. A lot of panic with injuries. But that’s not why you interrupted my late-night stroll, is it?” The informant smiles and shakes his head. Opening up his jacket, the informant pulls out a pen and begins to unscrew the barrel. Tucked inside, the informant pulls out a tiny scroll of paper and hands it to you. You read the four names quickly before you pocket the paper. “This can be pretty massive, are you sure about this?” The informant replies “It’s reliable. Those assets can turn the tide.” You twist the doorknob to leave and say “I’ll stay in touch.”

Nothing Left To Chance

Privileged Info

You’re walking the winding brick path by the river, needing to clear your head of the chaos back at the agency. As you stare out at the yellow glow of the street lamps reflecting off the pitch-black water, your phone vibrates. “Can you meet? Harbor Hotel. Rm 507. 30 minutes.” There is never a time for rest at this point in the season. You quickly dart through the side streets and alleys to make sure you aren’t being tailed - can’t afford to blow the cover of your best informant. You take one last look down the hall before you knock on the door, ‘507’ displayed in bold brass. “It’s me,” you mumble. The door swings open and you walk over to the table covered with glossy photos and stapled documents. “The league has certainly been busy with all of these recent trades. A lot of panic with injuries. But that’s not why you interrupted my late-night stroll, is it?” The informant smiles and shakes his head. Opening up his jacket, the informant pulls out a pen and begins to unscrew the barrel. Tucked inside, the informant pulls out a tiny scroll of paper and hands it to you. You read the four names quickly before you pocket the paper. “This can be pretty massive, are you sure about this?” The informant replies “It’s reliable. Those assets can turn the tide.” You twist the doorknob to leave and say “I’ll stay in touch.”

Usage Activity

A player’s usage can have massive implications for how we attack the season. Here are some points of interest worth monitoring:

Titans vs. Steelers - Since week 5, both DeAndre Hopkins and Diontae Johnson rank inside the top 12 in fantasy points per game at 17.6 and 17.1 respectively. Over that same span, Hopkins has been 3rd in average depth of target (16.5), Diontae is 7th in target share (29.6%), tied for 11th in targets per route run (0.30), 9th in 1st-read percentage (36.9%), and both rank in the top 10 in air yards share (Hopkins - 45.8%, Johnson - 44.2%). However, Brett Kollmann’s recent breakdown of the Steeler’s offense will give pause to anyone considering a piece of it.

Vikings vs. Falcons - Fear of the fallout from Kirk Cousin’s injury quickly subsided following Joshua Dobbs’ thrilling debut as the Vikings’ QB. Like a player with no country, the mercenary signal-caller quickly got to work, going 20/30 for 158 yards passing, and 2 TDs, with an additional 7 carries for 66 yards on the ground and 1 rushing TD. T.J. Hockenson stands to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of Dobb’s arrival: Hockenson led his team in targets (12), receptions (7), and yards (69) in week 9. In weeks 6-9, Minnesota has been 2nd in the league in TE Fantasy Usage (16.1 expected fantasy points - stat courtesy Hayden Winks, Underdog).
The fantasy atrocities continue in Atlanta, in particular with Bijan Robinson, who on average is receiving 11.13 carries & 5.13 targets a game (not including week 7’s one-touch game). Robinson has 13 Red Zone touches so far this season (32nd amongst RBs).

Seahawks vs. Ravens - Gus Edwards has scored 6 TDs over the past 3 games, the most of any RB over that span. His 7 total TDs are behind only Raheem Mostert (11) and Christian McCaffrey (9). Though he did score twice in week 9, Gus only received 5 carries and 18% of the snaps in this matchup. That was due in large part to Keaton Mitchell’s impressive performance: 9 carries for 138 rushing yards and 1 TD on 18% of the snaps. Mitchell is now only behind De’Von Achane with a 93.0 PFF Run Grade. For reasons unknown, Justice Hill led the backfield in snap percentage (63%) and carries (13) versus the Seahawks.
Too many high-value picks were sacrificed needlessly over the off-season to acquire the services of Geno Smith, who now barely qualifies as  QB 2 in fantasy. Jaxon Smith-Njigba continues to make strides - 6/7 for 63 yards on an 82% snap share (the highest snap% so far this season). Given Geno’s disappointing season and competition for touches with D.K. Metcalf & Tyler Lockett, Smith-Njigba remains a prime “sell” piece on any contender.

Rams vs. Packers - In his likely most healthy game since week 1, Aaron Jones dominated the backfield with 20 carries for 73 rushing yards and 1 TD, with an additional 4/6 for 26 yards through the air on 57% of the snaps (the highest % all season). Aaron Jones remains one of the highest-upside RB 2s for the rest of the season if he receives this type of usage moving forward. 
With Carson Wentz now entering the playing arena for the Rams, there is hope contenders will not need to liquidate their Cooper Kupp or Puka Nacua shares to secure a title. 
     
Buccaneers vs. Texans - C.J. Stroud’s 30/42 for 470 yards and 5 TDs is the greatest rookie QB performance this agency has ever witnessed. Stroud is already being ranked as the QB 7 on KTC and the QB 9 on FantasyCalc. Without an elite pass-catcher or run game to take the pressure off the young signal-caller, there is no QB in the league playing better with the cards dealt to him. Dalton Schultz and Tank Dell were the primary targets of Stroud: Schults - 10/11, 130 yards, 1 TD. Dell - 6/11, 114 yards, 2 TDs. Schultz is currently 2nd amongst TEs in Fantasy Points/G (16.5), 3rd in target share (24.2%), tied for 1st in Targets Per Route Run (0.32), 3rd in Yards Per Route Run (2.72), and tied for 3rd with 10 red zone targets.
Rachaad White and Cade Otton also enjoyed career-best days in this matchup: White - 20 attempts for 73 rushing yards plus 2 TDs, with 4/4 for 46 receiving yards on 80% snap share (good enough for RB1 of the week), Otton - 6/9 for 70 receiving yards plus 2 TDs on 100% of the snaps (TE3 of the week).

Agency Bulletin

The following assets of interest are in various considerations for your Rest-Of-Season Mission. Elite assets will not be included in this report given their formidable prices. The data used does not include week 9 and the WoRP values are based upon 12 teams, start 11, 30-player rosters, 6 pts per Passing TD, and Lineup leagues. Do not engage in a trade until the following intel & parameters have been carefully reviewed:

The South Harmon Agency - Security Clearance will dictate access to this agency’s intel, but South Harmon operations are conducted on a daily basis with the objective of disrupting the fantasy space. Enroll in their academy as a recruit on Discord to gain access to their resources and train to become a top-tier fantasy operator. https://www.patreon.com/SouthHarmon
 
WoRP - Scoring settings & team needs will dictate which assets to pursue. WoRP is a valuable resource in not only establishing priority targets but also secondary and backup options if necessary. This resource can only be accessed through: https://www.southharmonff.com/worp

Managers to Target - Begin negotiations with managers who are on the opposite side of the standings. If your roster is rebuilding, prioritize trading with teams in the middle who are desperate to contend & whose picks have higher upside. Managers at the bottom of the standings will become more eager to trade away their players to acquire picks as the season progresses. If your roster is in the middle, negotiate with other middling teams - if you are unable to acquire players to contend, then adapt & pursue the other direction with acquiring picks.

Scouting Weeks 12-17 - Prioritize the players with the best matchups during the most critical stage of the season.  

FantasyCalc/KeepTradeCut - Where an asset ranks in the field ultimately determines its value. Dynasty Rankings and The Trade Database (which lists the most recent acquisitions of the asset of interest) are invaluable resources in leveraging suitable deals.

The Weekly Dossier -  This classified document carefully lays out weekly reports and directives based on intelligence compiled from the most advanced agencies in the field (NFL, NextGenStats, ESPN, PFF, FantasyPros, FantasyLife, PlayerProfiler, Underdog).

Tua Tagovailoa - Field Commander Tua Tagovailoa ranks in the top 5 in 9 out of the 15 major categories our agency uses to evaluate QBs (the next closest QB is Josh Allen with 8/15 categories). This includes the best in the league at adjusted yards per attempt (9.3), big-time throw percentage (7.1%), PFF Grade (90.2), Supporting Cast (77.25), and QBR (108.8). The 5th best WoRP QB this season, Tua is playing well above his 8th most valuable dynasty QB ranking on FantasyCalc and 9th place ranking on KeepTradeCut. But perhaps the most intriguing aspect of Tua is pairing his services with the best player in all of fantasy this year to create the most lethal combination, Tyreek Hill (& De’Von Achane). Miami has a difficult rest-of-season schedule, but our analysts anticipate several shoot-outs to take place over the fantasy playoffs. Coming off one of his worst performances of the season and heading into a bye-week, sending 2x 1st-round + 2x 2nd-round picks worth of value and up to 3x 1st-round picks is merited in acquiring the young QB’s elite talent.

Jared Goff - Represents the most ideal QB 2 in SF leagues. Goff is tied for the 3rd highest pass attempts in the league (36.57/G) and has the 2nd highest adjusted completion percentage (80.4%). His volume of passes makes his 1.8% turnover-worthy plays that much more impressive with how little he puts the ball in harm's way (2nd best in the NFL). The Lions have surrounded Goff with one of the best ensembles of talent in the league (2nd only to Miami), including arguably the best positional trio in the league - St. Brown, LaPorta, and Gibbs. Detroit’s rest-of-season schedule is one of the best for any QB in fantasy (Starting in wk-12: GB, @NO, @CHI, DEN, @MIN, @DAL). The 8th best WoRP QB this season, Goff is outperforming his 16th most valuable dynasty QB ranking on FantasyCalc and 15th place ranking on KeepTradeCut. Coming off of his bye-week, be confident in sending up to a 1st-round + 2nd-round pick for the stability & upside of Jared Goff.

Russell Wilson - A Public Enemy the past two seasons, Russell Wilson has far outperformed his dynasty perception. His 79% adjusted completion percentage and 101.7 QBR are amongst the best scores in the league. The Broncos' rest-of-season schedule is one of the more favorable through the fantasy playoffs (starting in wk-13: @HOU, @LAC, @DET, NE, LAC).  The 10th best WoRP QB this season, Wilson is playing beyond his 21st most valuable dynasty QB ranking on FantasyCalc and 25th place ranking on KeepTradeCut. Coming off of his bye-week, be confident in sending up to a 1st-round round pick and riding with Russell Wilson as your QB 2.

Baker Mayfield - Unremarkable in nearly every major category, Baker Mayfield flies under the radar as the perfect QB 3 with a sneaky upside. At 35.14 pass attempts/G (11th in NFL) and 0.55 neutral pass rate (7th), Mayfield receives plenty of opportunities to operate within the 5th-best offensive ensemble in the league. The Mayfield and Mike Evans stack is perhaps the best value stack in fantasy this year. The Buccaneers' rest-of-season schedule is far from intimidating (@IND, CAR, @ATL, @GB, JAX, NO). As the 18th-best WoRP QB and not costing more than an early 2nd, Mayfield is the perfect tier-down candidate and insurance policy heading into the playoffs considering his QB23 price on KTC and QB27 ranking on FantasyCalc.

Waiver Targets

Spymaster Vanek will provide the latest intel through his America’s Game report. In terms of FAAB bidding, review your league’s previous waiver behavior to navigate the wire best. The waiver wire will become more bare as the season continues, especially in best ball formats.

Carson Wentz - 12% rostership, up to 10% FAAB (could fill in on dynamic, McVay-led offense)

Noah Brown - 35% rostership, 3-5% FAAB (better for best ball)

Kyle Philips - 24% rostership, spend up to 1% FAAB (will compete as the 2nd receiving option behind Hopkins week-to-week)

Khadarel Hodge - 4% rostership, 1% FAAB (a decent BB option with London & Hollins banged up)

Ty Chandler - 38% rostership, 0-1% FAAB (now the primary backup with Akers done)