Matty Kiwoom 2/3/25 Matty Kiwoom 2/3/25

NFL MOCK 1.o

Mock Draft Mondays are back here at South Harmon but this year we are doing the mocks in our discord. So to become a member of the South Harmon community join the Patreon.

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Welcome to my 2025 NFL Mock Draft 1.0! In this edition, I take a look at how teams might approach their picks, with no trades shaping the outcome. Unlike the explosive 2024 draft that saw a surge in offensive skill players, this year’s class takes a different turn, with quarterbacks Shedeur Sanders and Cam Ward leading the charge. However, outside of those two standout signal-callers, offensive skill positions take a bit of a dip in the rankings, making this draft an intriguing mix of talent across multiple positions. Let's dive into what promises to be an exciting and unpredictable draft.

Tennessee Titans: Edge Abdul Carter Penn State
A quarterback is in play at the 1.01. Titans’s President of Football Ops, Chad Binker stated “can’t pass on a generational talent and we won’t do that” Abdul is being labeled as exactly that by many in the draft world.
Cleveland Browns: CB/WR Travis Hunter Colorado
Cornerback? Wide receiver? Who gives a shit. Travis Hunter is a Heisman Trophy winner and would be one of the Browns most dynamic players from day 1. However if he magically comes out and states that he will be a FULL TIME WR…**whispers** Hunter is the 1.01 in ALL rookie draft formats.
New York Giants: QB Shedeur Sanders Colorado
Bright lights in the big city! There are many question marks surrounding Shedeur Sanders but handling the spotlight ISN”T ONE. Giants get their franchise guy. This kind of draft capital will make it very tough to not take Sanders in round 1 of superflex rookie drafts.
New England Patriots: OT Will Campbell LSU
Keeping Drake Maye upright is the only thing that matters. Will Campbell may not be a bulletproof prospect but he’s skilled, nasty, and the perfect guy to add to the Mike Vrabel era.
Jacksonville Jaguars: CB Will Johnson Michigan
Jags add an offensive head coach so they go offense at five right? WRONG! Will Johnson will be the best cornerback that Jacksonville has had since Jalen Ramsey.
Las Vegas Raiders: QB Cam Ward Miami
Pete Carroll is the new head coach and Cam Ward will be Vegas’s next franchise player. The Tom Brady era on the strip is alive and well…hopefully for Raiders’ fans. For fantasy players, Ward in Vegas should lock in the way he is currently being valued and solidify Brock Bowers going forward.
New York Jets: DI Mason Graham Michigan
Carolina Panthers: Edge, James Pearce Jr. Tennessee
New Orleans Saints: TE Tyler Warren Penn State
The Saints need playmakers. Alvin Kamara is getting old, Chris Olave has had some gnarly injuries recently. Incoming head coach grabs one of the most hyped tight end prospects since, well…last year. TEP leagues will see Warren come off of the board in the top half of round one but going in the top ten makes Warren a lock for round one in all rookie draft formats.
Chicago Bears: OT Kelvin Banks Jr. Texas
San Francisco 49ers: DE Jack Sawyer Ohio State
Dallas Cowboys: DE Shemar Stewart Texas A & M
Miami Dolphins: OL Josh Simmons Ohio State
Indianapolis Colts: S Malaki Starks Georgia
Atlanta Falcons: Edge Mike Green Marshall
Arizona Cardinals: CB Azareye’h Thomas Florida State
Cincinnati Bengals: WR Tetairoa McMilan Arizona
The Bengals could easily just sign Tee Higgins but with rumors swirling that he is going to get $30 million per year and that will take Cincy out of their comfort zone. Higgins leaves and Tet McMilan gets selected to be his immediate replacement. A landing spot like this will make Tet a consideration for the 1.01 in rookie drafts. Most certainly a lock for the top 3 in single QB formats.
Seattle Seahawks: OL Grey Zabel North Dakota State
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: CB Benjamin Morrison Notre Dame
Denver Broncos: WR Luther Burden III Missouri
Bo Nix was able to make it work in 2024 without a strong group of pass catchers. Adding Luther Burden III to the wide receiver room makes everyone better. Burden has displayed the skills to be an alpha. An amazing connection for fantasy purposes no question and makes everyone holding a top three rookie pick very comfortable.
Pittsburgh Steelers: RB Ashton Jeanty Idaho State
No one is talking about Heisman Trophy runner-up Aston Jeanty going to Pittsburgh but it makes a ton of sense. He’s a baller and OC, Arthur Smith could benefit from a back that can do it all. With Najee Harris certain to leave and Jaylen Warren having an avenue to find a job elsewhere this pick would be a smashing success for Jeanty drafters in rookie drafts. 1.01 is in the building.
Los Angeles Chargers: TE Colston Loveland Michigan
Michigan men reunited. Colston Loveland is a very talented tight end prospect that has been forgotten about due to his injuries in 2024. You can bet your ass that Jim Harbaugh hasn’t forgotten. Justin Herbert gets another reliable target to go with Ladd McKonkey. This landing spot isn’t enough to take Colston in round one of rookie drafts outside of the big TEP leagues.
Green Bay Packers: OL Armand Membou Missouri
Minnesota Vikings: RB TreVeyon Henderson Ohio State
BOOM! Get ready to start hearing the TreVeyon Henderson hype train coming. Todd McShay is already getting it going. Henderson is a three down back that would be the perfect replacement for Aaron Jones in the Vikings offense. A dream scenario for fantasy football and would make Henderson a candidate to be selected as early as the 1.02 in single QB and a top five pick in superflex.
Houston Texans: OL Carson Vinson Alabama A & M
Los Angeles Rams: CB Jahdae Barron Texas
Baltimore Ravens: Edge Nic Scourton Texas A & M
Detroit Lions: DI Kenneth Grant Michigan
Washington Commanders: Edge Donovan Ezeiruaku Boston College
Buffalo Bills: WR Emeka Egbuka Ohio State
Buffalo brought in Amari Cooper but he didn’t help as much as expected. Now they got wideout in round one. Emeka Egbuka will immediately be the best pass catcher that Josh Allen has and will allow Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, and Dalton Kincaid to find roles that suit their skillset. Getting round one draft capital with massive upside being linked to Allen makes Egbuka a lock to be a top eight pick in all rookie draft formats. A really good one at that.
Philadelphia Eagles: DL Mykel Williams Georgia
Kansas City Chiefs: DI Walter Nolen Ole Miss

As we wrap up this first look at the 2025 NFL Draft, it’s clear that this year’s class offers a unique blend of talent across various positions, with a few surprises along the way. While offensive skill players may not dominate the early rounds like in 2024, the depth at other positions makes for a fascinating draft class overall. Stay tuned as the draft process unfolds—there will surely be plenty of movement and fresh developments leading up to draft day.

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T-Rock 1/22/25 T-Rock 1/22/25

Playoff Odds & Strategy

We’ve all seen it before. One minute your team is sweeping across the league like a tidal wave. The next minute, you’re down by 20 points with only Rico Dowdle left to play. Then it hits you “I’m fucked.” All of that hard work and success over the last four months has turned to shit, ready to be flushed. Panic creeps up your spine and you remember Switch’s last words from the Matrix, “Not like this. Not like this.”

Part II - Trades

Milton - “What were my words to you? Maybe it was your time to lose. You didn't think so.”

Kevin - “Lose? I don't lose! I win! I win! I'm a lawyer! That's my job, that's what I do!”

Milton - “I rest my case. Vanity is definitely my favorite sin. Kevin, it's so basic, self-love; the all-natural opiate. You know, it's not that you didn't care for Mary Ann, Kevin. It's just that you were a little bit more involved with someone else: yourself.”

John Milton - The Devil's Advocate

Free Will, It Is A Bitch

“T-Rock sent me another trade request late last night,” Kevin began.

“Was he drunk?” Milton asked.

“With his team shitting the bed, probably.”

“T-Rock’s got himself in trouble again,” Milton said. “And he wants me to save his playoff hopes. Only this time, I can't.”

“T-Rock, T-Rock,” Milton continued. “I nursed him through Twitter scandals, a Wild Turkey rehab, and failed investments into meme coin. God's special creature? I've warned him, Kevin. Like a fat guy at a buffet, he can’t help himself.”

“Take a good look because he's the poster child for the next generation of fantasy players. These people, it's no mystery why they act like this. You sharpen their appetite for rookies to the point where they can split atoms with their hype. You bombard them with analytics until their egos are the size of stadiums. You hold their hand through every trade and roster crisis. You grease their brains with gold-plated content until even the dullest dynasty players become aspiring GMs. Becomes his own god!”

“But as they’re scrambling from one deal to the next, who's got their eye on the roster? The IR is at capacity, the roster is ancient, and the breakouts never come. It’s buy draft picks, sell draft picks, but you have nothing to sell or buy with! We got a billion T-Rocks all at the dinner table, ready to order their pristine prospects to pair with their elite constructions, trying to buy a title run. Then the dinner bill comes. Championships were never on the menu. You have to pay up, Rock. You can’t orphan your team now. You're screaming in the Discord for someone to help. But guess what? There's no one there! You're all alone, Rock. You're God's special little creature.”

Deal With The Devil

Refusing to accept the Fates, you frantically place some of your best players OUT with injury on the Trade Block. With only one person responding, you desperately trade away your picks and players, praying for a miracle. Instead, things end badly for you. Game Over.

This reoccurring nightmare is all too common in the fantasy playoffs. Having already examined Seeding and Scoring in Part I of this series, Playoff Odds & Strategy, we now shift our focus to Part II - Playoff Trading.

Playoff Trades

The data for this research comes from 25 seasons of dynasty playoffs, including 12 playoffs from Lineup leagues and 13 from Best Ball leagues. Every league has 12 teams, and 4/12 Lineup seasons come from a one-QB league.

I limited my sample of trades to the teams that were ALIVE in the playoffs and had money to play for (a Top 2-3 finish, depending on league payouts). If a team was eliminated during the playoffs or the parties with no monetary stakes to play for, I did not include the trade in my sample.

The trades in my sample were limited to two windows: If the league had a Trade Deadline, I only included the Week Before and the Week Of the deadline (two weeks). If the league had No Deadline, I began my sample the week before the dynasty playoffs (Wk. 14) and included all trades throughout the playoffs for all ALIVE teams.

I considered several factors when evaluating trades:

The points scored by the newly acquired players
The points scored by the players the manager traded away
What impact, if any, did the trade make on the outcome of the playoff matchup

There were a total of 56 trades that I analyzed amongst the Seeding sample:

1st Seed - 12 trades

2nd Seed - 12 trades

3rd Seed - 8 trades

4th Seed - 8 trades

5th Seed - 7 trades

6th Seed - 9 trades

52 trades in the Points Sample (Only teams that made the playoffs have their trades included in this sample, and the top-scoring teams did not always make the playoffs):

1st Points For - 11 trades

2nd Points For - 9 trades

3rd Points For - 10 trades

4th Points For - 7 trades

5th Points For - 7 trades

6th Points For - 8 trades

Main Takeaways

Of the 56 trades, 46 trades had zero impact on the outcome of the playoffs (82.14%)

Of these 46 trades, the most common patterns include:

In 8 of these trades, the managers would have won regardless of the trade. The other 38 trades did no favors for their managers
In 10 of these trades, most of the players they traded for either didn’t make their lineup at all in Best Ball leagues or completely shit the bed in Lineup leagues
8 of these trades were for the future (the player was either hurt or not playing at all)
2 of these trades were only for depth purposes (the players didn’t even start)
In 1 of these trades, the manager would have scored more with their original players but luckily still won despite their trade

In 2 instances, I deemed the trade as a 50/50 deal

In one instance, the manager lost by ½ a pt, where 3/5 players they traded for didn’t even make the lineup in a Best Ball league. Brutal.
In the other instance, the manager would have scored more points and made it to the Final if they hadn’t done the trade in Week 16, but they needed the trade if they wanted to win the Final. Hard to fault them for that.

Finally, 8 trades did have a major impact on Winnings/Championship (14.29%).

In 4 cases, the manager needed the trade to get through Round 1/2 of the Playoffs and into the Championship where they could win money, but ultimately still lost.
In 2 brutal instances, the manager would have won the Championship with the original starting players they traded away.
In only 2 cases (3.58%) a trade had a direct impact on securing a Title!

In the first case, the previously mentioned manager who lost by ½ a point lost to the eventual Champion. Their trade for K. Allen & C. Rush came absolutely clutch in Week 16 of the 2024 playoffs.
The second case is perhaps the most impressive. This manager right before the Final executed 5 trades. He traded away:
25 1st, 26 2nd, J. Hurts, AJ Brown, 27 3rd, 25 4th, R. Dowdle, 26 1st, 25 2nd, 27 2nd, J. Bobo, and J. Brooks
FOR
G. Kittle, B. Nix, P. Nacua, Z. Ertz, O. Zaccheaus, 25 5th, M. Evans, D. Henry, A. Abdullah, and I. Likely

The Result:

An astounding 8/9 players he traded for made his lineup, scoring 154.4 more points than the original players he traded away/players on his bench that would have otherwise made his lineup
The manager won the championship by 97.56 points and scored the highest total in league history
That manager was me

Sheep Amidst The Wolves

Losing in the playoffs can be heartbreaking, but losing after trading away your future can be devastating. This research is far from Gospel - I am limited to a data sample that only includes my leagues. But even if you had access to every league on Sleeper, it would be impossible to assess the effectiveness of trades on such a scale. If there is only a few major things you took away from this article, it should be these:

The odds of a playoff trade helping you secure a Championship are extremely slim.

If you making a trade, wait until the Final and be sure your newly acquired assets have value going into next season if you lose.

Trust in the team that got you this far without meddling with it too much.

With so many playoff matches ending in double-digit wins/losses, changing the outcome through a trade is nearly impossible. With a flash of fire and smoke, your leaguemates manifest themselves as demons with pitchforks and contracts, waiting to strike a lopsided deal at your most vulnerable moment. Some may be tempted to make a Faustian bargain at the expense of their soul, but these deals usually end very badly. Accept the cards you're dealt if you're destined to lose. Save your picks for where they matter most and draft the next Jayden Daniels, Malik Nabers, or other godsent rookies at the most affordable price they’ll ever be - The Rookie Draft.

The Dossier

Image created by DK

T-Rock 1/21/25 T-Rock 1/21/25

Playoff Odds & Strategy

The overwhelming sentiment during the playoffs is to leave no stone unturned when chasing a Championship. Move heaven and earth if you must, but do not finish the season with regret wondering, “Could I have done more?” But how often do you go “All-In,” mortgaging your entire future by trading away valuable picks and players, only to be bounced early in the playoffs? These trades inevitably define your roster for the next few seasons and with no draft capital they can be almost impossible to dig out of.

Part I - Standings & Points

Three Questions

The overwhelming sentiment during the playoffs is to leave no stone unturned when chasing a Championship. Move heaven and earth if you must, but do not finish the season with regret wondering, “Could I have done more?” But how often do you go all-in, mortgaging your future by trading away valuable picks and players, only to be bounced early in the playoffs? These trades inevitably define your roster for the next few seasons and with no draft capital they can be almost impossible to dig out of.

Trades are only a piece of the jumbled puzzle. I used to believe having the highest-scoring team mattered more in the playoffs than a top seed. But with so much variance, injuries, and teams getting hot at the right time, I now have doubts.

The purpose of this research is to gain a better understanding of three major components of the Fantasy Playoffs:

Is there a strong correlation between Playoff Seeding and where a team Finishes?
Does Seeding matter more than Regular Season scoring?
How often do Playoff Trades make an impact?

Many dynasty players may take issue with this research, saying “Hindsight is 20/20,” “Don’t play the odds because you never know,” “Leave nothing to chance,” and “You can’t predict the future based on the past.” And all these managers would be right. But none of these managers have to suffer through fixing my roster if I sell out to win and lose. Every decision in life can be boiled down to a cost/benefit analysis. We can make better decisions if we understand our odds and what we stand to lose.

Note - You may notice that the Odds do not always add up to 100% in the Points For sample as they do with the Seeds. That is because there are multiple occasions where the Top-6 scoring teams did not make the playoffs, and thus did not have a Top-6 Finish.

1st

As expected, the 1st Seed has the highest average finish for both Lineup and Best Ball leagues at 2.17 and 1.92 respectively. Other major takeaways include:

1st Seeds finished Top-2 in lineup leagues 75% of the time in the sample.

But only 25% of these teams finished 1st in Lineup.

The 46.15% 1st Place Finish is the second highest odds in Best Ball leagues.

The only other more likely outcome was the 53.85% odds 6th Seed teams have for finishing in 6th Place.

In terms of Points For, the 41.67% odds of the Highest Scoring team finishing 2nd is the highest in the Points For sample.
The Highest Scoring team was just as likely to finish 2nd as they were 1st Place in Best Ball.
In Lineup leagues, both the #1 & #2 Scoring teams have a 3.08 average finish.

2nd

The 2nd Seed had a better finish for both Lineup and Best Ball leagues at 2.83 and 2.69 respectively compared to the 2nd Highest Scoring team, which on average finished at 3.08 and 3.23 in Lineup and Best Ball leagues. Other major takeaways include:

2nd Seed teams finished 4th at a whopping 41.67% in Lineup leagues and 3rd place in Best Ball at 38.46%
Overall, Seeding matters more than Scoring for the #2 teams

The #2 Scoring teams have a wide range of outcomes and are comparable to teams that are 3rd in Points For

3rd

Third-place teams are the Evil Twin (exact opposite) of Second-place teams - the 3rd Highest Scoring Teams finished better on average at 2.91 compared to the 3rd Seed teams, which finished on average at 3.35. Other major takeaways include:

The 3rd Highest Scoring team surprisingly finished better than the 2nd Highest in Lineup leagues and Best Ball.
Both 3rd Seeds & Points For have the highest odds of securing a Championship in the entire sample, at 33.33%

With rosters that are often comparable to the Top 2 teams, their path to a Championship includes an easy 6th Seed matchup and coin-flip 2nd Seed match. Once in the Final Round, anything can happen.

4th

We see the first major dropoff in both Seeding and Scoring when it comes to the Fourth Placed Teams. The 4th Seed teams finished at 4.18 compared to the 4th Highest Scoring teams, which finished on average at 4.8. Other major takeaways include:

Regardless of Seeding or Scoring, the 4th Place team finished in the bottom half of the playoffs 72% of the time, not great.

5th

On average, 5th Placed teams performed better in the playoffs compared to 4th Place, with an average finish of 4.05 for 5th Seeds and 3.88 finish for the 5th Highest Scorers. Other major takeaways include:

5th Seed teams are doomed for a bottom-half finish in Best Ball leagues with an astounding 92.31% odds of ending the season in 4th-6th place

6th

Finally, the 6th Seed teams faired better in the playoffs with an average finish of 4.61 compared to the 6th Highest Scoring team, who finished at 5.21 on average. Other major takeaways include:

6th Seed teams in Best Ball leagues finish 6th Place 53.85% of the time, the highest odds in the entire sample of research.
The 6th Best Teams have it brutal in Lineup leagues.

No 6th Seed ever brought home a championship in Lineup.
The 6th Highest Scoring teams never made it to the Final Round

Main Takeaways

The Top 2 Seeds and Highest Scoring Teams are the most predictable and have the highest odds of finishing in the Top 2

Having a bye-week is so critical

3rd Place teams are very dangerous in lineup leagues

Variance may have kept them from securing a bye-week in the regular season, but these are typically strongly constructed teams with one of the easiest roads to a Chip.

Not much differentiates 4th-6th Seeded Teams as far as odds in the playoffs

However, there is much more variance when comparing the 4th-6th Highest scoring teams

Outside of the #1 Team, the 6th Seed & Points For team is the most predictable, finishing 5th or 6th 52-68% of the time

Playoff Trades

Come back for Part II.

Conclusion

When I have the #1 Seed or the highest-scoring team, I feel entitled to a Championship! Experience, research, and sound strategy can take your team far in the regular season. But in the playoffs, variance can be a heartless bitch. Similarly, humans know how to build a space shuttle that can launch off the ground and into the Earth’s atmosphere. However, with the unpredictable nature of space travel, unforeseen events and Murphy’s Law can quickly take over. The fantasy playoffs are Murphy’s Law at its finest.

I’ve had Juggernauts go down in their first game after a bye and I’ve had tanking teams barely make the playoffs and run the gauntlet for a title (because I’m bad at losing). Our pursuit of improvement as fantasy players shouldn’t be defined purely by winning. If it is, you’re in for a lot of heartache. Instead, our pursuit should be a better understanding of the game and an openness to its possibilities.

Murphy's law doesn't mean that something bad will happen. It means that whatever *can* happen, will happen

Cooper - Interstellar

The Dossier

Image created by DK

T-Rock 12/30/24 T-Rock 12/30/24

WK 17 - Lessons Learned In 2024

The Playoffs are everyone’s favorite time of the year. Everyone’s except mine, of course. Managers everywhere are desperate to ensure that the last year or more of preparation wasn’t wasted. And that’s where I come in. I’m not selling proven analytics or effective strategies. What people really want is hands-on consultation, affirmation, and consolation. They want their favorite players built up to be gods and a crystal ball to discover the next league winner. But people don’t understand that it's all a farce. A dream that will never be a reality. The truth is that only one champ is crowned at the end of every year. With open arms, I welcome everyone else with the bitter taste of loss left in their mouths. I try to show them a better way.

Oh my gosh, does that suck. We have spent 40 million dollars on a live TV show! You guys have got an ad with America's favorite old fart, reading a book, in front of a fireplace! Now, I have to kill all of you!

Frank Cross - Scrooged

The Ghost of Fantasy Past

The frigid Christmas air blasts me in the face as I wave down a cab. Before I can get settled, the driver hits the gas and the force sinks me deep into the backseat leather.

“Whoa! What the Hell!?” I shout from the backseat.

“Relax Rock! Enjoy the ride!” the taxi driver howled

“How do you know my name?” I demand.

“I know absolutely everything Rock,” he said turning towards me. His face was dirty, his eyes were yellow, and his ears were pointed. “You see, I’m a ghost,” he laughed uncontrollably with tobacco-stained teeth.

Surrounded by smoke and flashing lightning, the Ghost flipped the red flag down on his taximeter, triggering the fare that began to rapidly wind down from 2024. Tall, dark trees began to quickly pass by as we sped down a winding pitch-black road.

“Where the Hell are we?!” I screamed.

“WHERE are we?! You mean WHEN are we?!” the Ghost driver chuckled pointing towards the fare on his meter that now read 2005.

“Please, just take me home,” I anguished.

“You got it, pal,” he replied.

Before I knew it, I was standing in front of an all too familiar house that I hadn’t seen for many years.

“HOME SWEET HOME ROCK!” the Ghost exclaimed.

“Oh, I get it. So you're gonna show me my past and I'm supposed to get all blubbery when I see my family. Well, it ain't happening!”

“That's exactly what Genghis Khan said. But when the conqueror saw his mother… Niagara Falls” he said making a crying gesture.

Without opening the door, the ghost passed through the glass of my old home. Thinking I could do the same, my head bounced hard off the glass, shaking the front door.

The ghost’s laugh echoed loudly through the grand hall. “I love that bit!” he said opening the door.

“Quiet! They are gonna hear us!”

“Rock, they can't hear us, they can't see us. It's not live, it's like a rerun.”

The Ghost of Christmas Past led me upstairs and down the long, dark hallway. I stood silently peeking through the gap of my old bedroom door. I watched my younger self turn his modest TV to ESPN before picking up the phone. The Ghost walked towards my old computer and noticed that I had µTorrent running.

“Damn Rock, did you need every single release of Big Wet Bu-”

“SHHH!” I interrupted.

I stood motionless as the 2005 me brought the phone to his ear.

“ARE YOU READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL?!” my old self cheered.

“A Monday Night Party!” the voice on the other line sang.

For years, I called my older brother weekly and we would watch Monday Night Football together over the phone. Tonight was a special night with the Ravens playing Brett Favre and the Packers. These beautiful moments of my life I had locked away and forgotten. Overwhelmed with a flood of emotions, the tears began to roll down my cheek.

“Niagra Falls Rock, Niagra Falls,” the Ghost whispered in my ear.

Lesson I - Expedite Your Trades

The irony of fantasy football is that I can provide my readers with plenty of intelligent research, a very sound strategy, and a plan that makes sense on paper informed by years of experience from some of the best minds in the space. But all this effort doesn’t always translate into success. Despite an arsenal of resources at our disposal:

We have little sway over others in our trade negotiations
We have zero control over injuries
And there’s going to be plenty of deals that just don’t work out in our favor

This advice may not pertain to you because you don’t anguish for hours, obsessively scrolling your Sleeper app to see how far behind or ahead you are in your matchups. Or maybe you don’t spend days meticulously constructing trades that often go “unread.” Understand, that much of what I write is advice for myself to follow as a degenerate. For me to model a policy of playing “stress-free” with “no regrets,” I first need to start enjoying the ride myself. How am I going to do that? It begins with this wisdom in mind:

If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.

Sun Tzu - The Art of War

Understand that your biggest enemy is often yourself
You can listen to others, but ultimately you are responsible for your success
The best practice is to be like water, don’t fight against the fates, and just play the cards dealt to ya

Operating from this mindset has led me to a new policy for my trade negotiations. It’s simple:

Set your terms
If your trade partner counters, then set your absolute limit
If the deal isn’t acceptable, then simply say “No thanks,” and end it OR reply with “Let’s table it,” and return to it later.

Understanding that most people don’t budge much from their initial offers can be quite freeing when you realize that you don’t have to go through the effort of persuading them. The days of humoring my potential trade partner by listening to their endless rants are over, and I wish I had learned this years ago. I want to limit and control how much time I spend devoted to fantasy football.

Lesson II - Revamped Trading Schedule

I am a big advocate of adhering to a “Trading Schedule.” Limiting yourself to trading away smaller assets in the beginning half of the season is motivated by four major factors:

Trading away a high draft pick for a player always comes with the risk the player can get hurt. I want to limit this possibility by waiting as long as possible.
The longer the season progresses, the larger the sample of data we can use to hone in on the very best trade candidates.
The scarcity of picks limits the opportunities to make trades, making each trade that much more valuable.
Lastly, the pool of players available for trade at the end of the season is typically larger when more teams are knocked out of contention and are more likely to move off valuable players in preparation for next season.

Trading Schedule

Weeks 1-2 - Be willing to trade a 3rd
Weeks 3-4 - Be willing to trade 2x 3rds
Weeks 5-8 - Be willing to trade a 2nd
Weeks 9-12 - Be willing to trade 2x 2nds (or 1x early 2nd)
Weeks 13-16- Be willing to trade a 1st

The Trading Schedule strategy has saved me from more heartache and won me more championships than anything else I have utilized since I started playing fantasy football. It has become a cardinal rule that I live by. But I am adding a new wrinkle.

Why limit this philosophy to only Draft Picks? Certain players are FAR MORE valuable than liquid assets. There are 12 First Round Draft picks in 2025 (or however many managers are in your league), but there is only one Lamar Jackson, only one Josh Allen, and only one Jayden Daniels. In a game that involves so much variance, attrition, and overall instability, these elite players bring stability and firepower that is far more valuable than draft picks. With this in mind, here is the updated Trading Schedule.

NEW Trading Schedule

Weeks 1-2 - Be willing to trade a 3rd
Weeks 3-4 - Be willing to trade 2x 3rds
Weeks 5-8 - Be willing to trade a 2nd
Weeks 9-12 - Be willing to trade 2x 2nds (or 1x early 2nd)
Weeks 13-16- Be willing to trade a 1st, OR In case of a minor injury, be willing to downtier from Rd. 2 Startup Player to Rd. 3 Startup Player, OR be willing to trade away an Rd. 4 Startup Player
Championship Week - In case of a minor injury, be willing to downtier from Rd. 1 Startup Player to Rd. 2 Startup Player

Key Takeaways

Do not trade away Top-48 ranked players until the playoffs and only if the trade is necessary for a championship run in the event of a minor injury (i.e. concussion).
The more valuable the player, the longer you should hold off on trading them.
If the player is an elite QB or WR, do not accept too large of a downtier.

Lesson III - Analytics Vs. WoRP

A large portion of my writing I devote to unearthing the top performers at each position starting in week seven with TEs and ending in week 13 with RBs. With this research, I recommend to my readers the top players to acquire for championship aspirations.

With how time-consuming this research is, I naturally wonder “Is it effective and worthwhile for my readers?” The best way I can answer such a question is by comparing it to the best resource I know of when it comes to player evaluation - WoRP.

The following is the list of 2024 Buys at each position. I was interested in the player’s Overall WoRP (all positions), the player’s Total WoRP by position, and their WoRP/Game by position. Lastly, I compiled this data from two samples: the WoRP data up until the time of publication and the WoRP data up until week 16. In BOLD I have highlighted the players that managed to improve since initial publication and have Underlined the players that maintained their position. Here are the results:

TE Buys

Overall WoRP, Total WoRP, WoRP/G

Wk 1-7

Wk 1-16

Wins

Hunter Henry

57th overall, 0.61 (TE6), 0.087/G (TE14)

44th overall, 1.424 (TE8), 0.095/G (TE13)

Zach Ertz

108th overall, 0.399 (TE18), 0.08/G (TE17)

83rd overall, 1.065 (TE13), 0.082/G (TE17)

Steadfast

George Kittle

6th overall, 1.192 (TE2), 0.199/G (TE1)

7th overall, 2.281 (TE3), 0.175/G (TE2)

QB Buys

Overall WoRP, Total WoRP, WoRP/G

Wk 1-9

Wk 1-16

Wins

Joe Burrow

18th overall, 1.224 (QB5), 0.136/G (QB6)

8th overall, 2.245 (QB 3), 0.15/G (QB3)

Justin Herbert

101st overall, 0.534 (QB21), 0.067/G (QB27)

84th overall, 1.053 (QB17), 0.07/G (QB27)

Misses/Injured

Jalen Hurts

12th overall, 1.296 (QB4), 0.162/G (QB3)

21st overall, 1.897 (QB6), 0.126/G (QB7)

WR Buys

Overall WoRP, Total WoRP, WoRP/G

Wk 1-11

Wk 1-16

Wins

Terry McLaurin

40th overall, 1.102 (WR9), 0.1/G (WR20)

27th overall, 1.752 (WR5), 0.117/G (WR11)

Tee Higgins

77th overall, 0.81 (WR25), 0.135/G (WR8)

70th overall, 1.198 (WR23), 0.12/G (WR10)

Jameson Williams

76th overall, 0.815 (WR24), 0.102/G (WR19)

63rd overall, 1.245 (WR20), 0.096/G (WR24)

Courtland Sutton

59th overall, 0.932 (WR18), 0.093/G (WR28)

53rd overall, 1.357 (WR15), 0.097/G (WR23)

Misses/Injured

George Pickens

67th overall, 0.861 (WR20), 0.086/G (WR35)

90th overall, 1.002 (WR32), 0.084/G (WR34)

Jauan Jennings

105th overall, 0.616 (WR 36), 0.123/G (WR12)

107th overall, 0.868 (WR40), 0.087/G (WR32)

Cooper Kupp

49th overall, 0.996 (WR13), 0.166/G (WR3)

72nd overall, 1.178 (WR24), 0.107/G (WR18)

Khalil Shakir

72nd overall, 0.842 (WR22), 0.084/G (WR37)

87th overall, 1.019 (WR30), 0.073 (WR43)

RB Buys

Overall WoRP, Total WoRP, WoRP/G

Wk 1-13

Wk 1-16

Wins

Chuba Hubbard

54th overall, 1.17 (RB19), 0.097/G (RB22)

32nd overall, 1.6 (RB12), 0.107/G (RB17)

James Conner

45th overall, 1.206 (RB15), 0.1/G (RB19)

29th overall, 1.729 (RB11), 0.115/G (RB13)

Chase Brown

47th overall, 1.202 (RB17), 0.109/G (RB16)

34th overall, 1.566 (RB13), 0.112/G (RB14)

Josh Jacobs

21st overall, 1.513 (RB8), 0.126 (RB9)

19th overall, 1.924 (RB7), 0.128/G (RB8)

Steadfast

Derrick Henry

5th overall, 1.99 (RB2), 0.153/G (RB4)

10th overall, 2.176 (RB2), 0.145/G (RB3)

Kyren Williams

25th overall, 1.447 (RB9), 0.121 (RB12)

26th overall, 1.786 (RB9), 0.119/G (RB11)

Misses/Injured

Alvin Kamara

8th overall, 1.848 (RB3), 0.154/G (RB3)

17th overall, 1.982 (RB6), 0.142/G (RB5)

Bucky Irving

69th overall, 0.982 (RB23), 0.123 (RB10)

74th overall, 1.226 (RB22), 0.106/G (RB18)

Key Takeaways

I am particularly pleased with my RB, QB, and TE research, where the majority of the players I recommended managed to improve as the season progressed.
Going only 50% on the WRs drives home a huge focus I had in my process this year, “analytics can help identify the top-performing players, but their situation determines a player’s finish.”

Hopefully, by next year, I can figure out why some of these WRs did not hit

Overall, I am pleased that my process did bear some worthwhile fruit and will continue to provide and improve this research moving forward.

The Ghost of Fantasy Future

Staring up at the ceiling in the dead quiet of my bedroom, I remained motionless and unable to sleep as I tried to wrap my mind around today’s events. The door to my room slowly creaked open, and a shard of light from the hallway pierced through the ether of my room's darkness. Entering the hallway, the once modest carpeted stairway had become a luxurious oak staircase stained in rich mahogany red with intricate woodworking on the balusters and newel posts. Despite having never set foot in this place before, the taste in furniture and artwork was reminiscent, and I felt like I had lived here for years. Entering a large study, there was a grand library of books covering the walls and a roaring fire. I saw an old man hunched over a massive executive desk. Standing behind him was a tall, dark silhouette of a hooded figure. Slow-moving smoke bellowed out from the feet of the figure and crawled across the floor. The shadowy phantom rested one of his skeletal hands on the old man’s shoulder.

The old man was distressed as he poured through all of the data on his computers. Only the strokes of his keyboard and snaps from the fireplace echoed through the empty household. His work completely consumed him, swimming deeper and faster into an abyss he would never reach the bottom of. His family, friends, and any other distractions were all gone now. Death and the glass of Lagavulin were the only companions he had close by. I shook my head in disbelief as I inched closer to the desk. It was only for a moment that the old man broke from the trance of his toils and I caught a glimpse of his familiar visage. There was no love in his eyes, only anguish and heartache.

What a waste.

Lesson IV - New Tiers

For years, I have abided by and respected the player market (Startup ADP & KTC). However, the longer I play fantasy, watch football, conduct research, and write, the more I appreciate certain players. These players typically have more of a unique backstory or track record, they exhibit certain character qualities that I highly respect, but overall these players excite me the most when I watch them. In other words, these players are personal to me.

Luckily, many of the players I love are a few of the best and most valuable players in fantasy. At one point, I mocked in my heart anyone who labeled a player “untradeable” because I felt that limited ideal roster construction. Though I probably won’t swing this far in my new outlook, what I am saying is that my loyalty to certain players will far outweigh the “fair” consensus price of a player on the trade market. Many managers already operate this way with elite players like Josh Allen and Ja’Marr Chase, who typically fetch a price closer to 5-6x 1st Round Picks than their price on KTC. I am simply adopting this view and applying it not only to the elites but also to my favorite players.

I do not recommend this new lesson the same way as my other lessons because it is very personal. But, if you’re like me and your view of fantasy has been completely data and market-driven for years, then perhaps creating your own tiers of players and their criteria can provide you a much-needed new spark to your experience.

Conclusion - Heart & Why

I do my best to provide the very best strategy and data I possibly can to my audience. But I'm a high-powered mutant that moonlights as an imperfect human and much of my journey has come with making countless mistakes. For the most part, I've tried to figure out as many things on my own. Ultimately, I’ve found that the best and most rewarding experience is taking more ownership of it. The overwhelming ethos in fantasy has become “What do I do? I'm worried about making a mistake!” Instead, I want to take a page from Ol’ Blue Eyes, who famously said, “I did it my way.”

I'm starting by not only bringing you research on topics I find pertinent and neglected, but with a shifted focus on players, their history, achievements, and special journeys in the sport we all love. Lastly, I want to devote more time to investigating the queries you all have with my “Special Operations” articles.

My writing journey feels like a miracle that I don’t want to go to waste. I have a ton of projects I am excited to share with you all! I appreciate all of you and your support. I’ll see you all next year!

The Dossier

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T-Rock 12/17/24 T-Rock 12/17/24

Week 16 Waiver Targets

The South Harmon Agency has more high-tier operatives gathering intel than ever before. Be sure to keep your channel open and collect data from the various sources as it comes in. In terms of FAAB bidding, review your league’s previous waiver behavior to navigate the wire best. The waiver wire will become more bare as the season continues, especially in best ball formats.

Waiver Targets

ReDraft (most of these players will be rostered in Dynasty leagues)

Jerome Ford- 42% rostership, spend 100% FAAB (With our all-time favorite Brownie Nick Chubb missing the ROS with a broken foot, Jerome Ford becomes the priority add of week 16. Jerome is a solid FLEX option with RB 2 upside when starting for Cleveland. He had his best game of the season with 84 yards and 1 TD on the ground with an additional 20 yards through the air, catapulting him to the RB8 in week 15. Empty all you have left in FAAB to acquire Ford if he’s available.)
Brenton Strange - 7% rostership, 40-50% FAAB (The injuries continue with Evan Engram suffering a torn labrum and being placed on IR. Luckily for Jacksonville, they have one of the best backup TEs in the league, Brenton Strange. In his 5 starts for the Jaguars, Strange finished as the TE9, TE7, TE27, TE9, and TE4, averaging 6 targets, 4.6 catches, and 38.6 yards. Drawing a matchup versus the lowly Raiders, expect Strange to keep playing as a TE1 as the #2 target for his offense.)
Cooper Rush - 11% rostership, spend 40-50% FAAB (Cooper Rush has been one of the top streaming options at QB this season. He has finished as the QB18 or better in 4 of the last 5 weeks and as a top QB in 2 matchups over the same span. The Buccaneers are an ideal matchup for the Cowboys in week 16 with their high-octane offense and sieve of a passing defense. At only 11% rostership, Cooper Rush needs to be owned as a 3rd-string backup or as a bench rider to block your opponent and cripple their QB options.)
Kendre Miller - 16% rostership, spend 30-40% FAAB (The theme of backups stepping up for injured starters continues in New Orleans with Kendre Miller. Alvin Kamara left in the second half versus the Commanders with a groin injury and is closer to missing than playing in week 16. Kendre Miller hasn’t been a beacon of hope himself, missing 16 games over his young career due to injury and falling out of favor with coach Dennis Allen. Luckily for us and Miller, Allen is gone and interim coach Rizzi has the Saints fighting with new life. Miller has a decent ceiling, finishing as the RB13 in Week 18 of 2023, and having the backfield entirely to himself. But with the Saints taking on a stout Packers defense in Week 16, expectations should be tempered.)
Carson Wentz - 0% rostership, spend 10% FAAB (Patrick Mahomes exited Sunday’s game versus Cleveland in the 4th Quarter with a mild high-ankle sprain. This injury would knock out most QBs for a week or two, but Mahomes isn’t most sign-callers. Practicing in full on Tuesday, we expect Mahomes to grit his way through the injury and play. If he cannot battle through the pain, Carson Wentz would step up in his place. The last time Wentz started a game in week 18 of 2023, he finished as the QB2 with 3 TDs.)
Malik Washington - 3% rostership, spend 10% FAAB (Jaylen Waddle was knocked out in week 15 with a knee injury of unknown severity. Filling in was rookie Malik Washington, who finished 5/6 for 52 scoreless yards. If your team suffered any unfortunate injuries and the waiver wire cupboard is barren, you could do worse than Malik as a serviceable FLEX option).

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T-Rock 12/6/24 T-Rock 12/6/24

WK 13 - RB Buys Of 2024

During the 2023 Campaign, our Agency identified De’Von Achane, Kyren Williams, Alvin Kamara, David Montgomery, Rachaad White, D’Andre Swift, Josh Jacobs, Tony Pollard, and Austin Ekeler as RB Interests in the Week 13 Dossier. These RBs were ranked at the time of the week 13 Agency Bulletin and finished as follows in PPR leagues: Achane 27th (finished 24th), Kyren 12th (finished 5th), Kamara 4th (finished 9th), Montgomery 19th (finished 18th), Rachaad 5th (finished 6th), Swift 14th (finished 17th), Jacobs 9th (finished 23rd), Pollard 11th (finished 15th), and Ekeler 26th (finished 25th). Learning from last season, analytics can help identify the top-performing players, but their situation determines a player’s finish.

Agency Bulletin

Kyren Williams was our Agency’s largest victory from the 2023 Buy List. He finished the final 6 weeks of the season as the RB1, RB9, RB18, RB5, RB12, and RB1. Kyren’s 6 TDs and insane snap share (86.6% avg) in the final five weeks were pivotal for his RB5 finish.

Achane, Montgomery, White, and Ekeler all managed to maintain their position in the RB standings. Mostert was a monster in the final 6 weeks of the season, scoring 7 touchdowns as the clear goal-line back compared to the 3 TDs that Achane scored. Similarly, Gibbs was the preferred back for Detroit in the final portion of the regular season, outpacing Montgomery in both snap share and TDs. Rachaad was decent until the championship when he finished as the RB38 for that pivotal week. The Chargers became a complete dumpster fire in the final month of the season and Ekeler went down with the sinking ship.

Unfortunately, Kamara, Swift, and Pollard fell off in the season's final stretch. Kamara’s worst games of the season came in the final two weeks when he was needed most. Going up against the red-hot Rams offense, the Saints fell behind early and couldn’t get anything going with Kamara in week 16. He exited the following week with an injury versus the Buccaneers. The Eagles were unable to deploy their RBs effectively when they fell behind in contests, and ultimately Swift’s production took a turn for the worst while the team lost 5 of their final 7 games. The Cowboys flipped a switch with their passing game and completely committed to Prescott and Lamb as their winning formula. Without the necessary volume and goalline opportunities, Pollard’s upside shriveled up fast under the heat of a pass-first offense.

Jacobs received the kiss of death upon publication and missed the remainder of the season with injury.

With this knowledge in mind, the following assets are in consideration for your Rest-Of-Season Mission. The WoRP values are based upon 12 team leagues, start 10, 25-player rosters, PPR, Lineup, and Best Ball. Do not engage in a trade until the following intel & parameters have been carefully reviewed:

WoRP - Scoring settings & team needs will dictate which assets to pursue. WoRP is a valuable resource in not only establishing priority targets but also secondary and backup options if necessary. This resource can only be accessed through: https://www.southharmonff.com/worp

Managers to Target - Begin negotiations with managers on the opposite side of the standings. If your roster is rebuilding, prioritize trading with teams in the middle who are desperate to contend & whose picks have higher upside. Managers at the bottom of the standings will become more eager to trade away their players to acquire picks as the season progresses. If your roster is in the middle, negotiate with other middling teams. If you are unable to acquire players to contend, then adapt and pursue the other direction with acquiring picks.

Scouting Weeks 12-17 - Prioritize the players with the best matchups during the most critical stage of the season.

FantasyCalc/KeepTradeCut - Where an asset ranks in the field ultimately determines its value. Dynasty Rankings and The Trade Database (which lists the most recent acquisitions of the asset of interest) are invaluable resources in leveraging suitable deals.

Trading Resources - Includes The Trade Checklist, Proactive Trading, Passive Trading, and Trading Stats

https://www.southharmonff.com/articles/category/The+Trading+Series

Buying Players Schedule

Weeks 1-2 - Be willing to trade a 3rd
Weeks 3-4 - Be willing to trade 2x 3rds
Weeks 5-8 - Be willing to trade a 2nd
Weeks 9-12 - Be willing to trade 2x 2nds (or 1x early 2nd)
Weeks 13-16- Be willing to trade a 1st

The One and Only True King

In 2020, Derrick Henry had one of the greatest seasons ever by a RB. Through 13 games he had 297 attempts for 1,532 rushing yards (5.2 YPC) and 14 rushing TDs (109 receiving yards). That year, Henry finished the season with 397 attempts for 2,027 rushing yards (5.36 YPC) and 17 TDs (114 receiving yards). In 2024, Henry has 240 attempts for 1,407 rushing yards (5.86 YPC) and 13 rushing TDs (125 receiving yards & 2 TDs). But what is most exciting besides being on pace for having the best season of his career is that Winter Has Come. Henry is a conqueror in December, averaging 89.3 yards and 0.97 TDs per game over his career in the final month of the year. To put that in perspective, Henry’s December averages overshadow the likes of Emmitt, LT, Peterson, Payton, TD, Holmes, O.J., Faulk, and Dorsett. Henry is in the same rarified air as Dickerson and Sayers during the holiday month, with only the likes of Jim Brown and Barry Sanders being better.

This season, King Henry leads NFL RBs in TDs and is 4th in red zone touches. The Ravens are facing a Giants team in week 15, who are giving up an average of 152.5 rushing yards to opposing runnings backs over their last month of games. And in championship week, Henry gets to face an old foe in the Houston Texans, where he has averaged 102.2 rushing yards and 0.9 TDs. If Derrick Henry isn’t on your team, then pray you do not face him on the playoff battlefield. Long May He Reign.

One Shot Wonders

The biggest surprise this year at the running back position is Chuba Hubbard. Despite playing for the worst team in the NFL, Chuba is 8th amongst RBs with 8 TDs, has a 73.1% snap share, and is 9th in red zone touches with 38. Chuba doesn’t boast elite production in the receiving game, but with the 4th best production on the 2nd best usage amongst runners according to Hayden Winks of Underdog, he is the only hope the Panthers have on offense. Carolina has a tough matchup in week 14 against the Eagles, but their upcoming games versus the Cowboys, Cardinals, and Buccaneers are one of the best playoff schedules in fantasy. Chuba has a future time-share with Jonathon Brooks, but in 2024 Hubbard is worth the risk if he can be acquired for less than 2x 2nds.

Since joining the Cardinals, James Conner has been one of the most consistent RBs in fantasy football. On track for another great season, Conner ranks in the top 12 in both snap share (65.5%) and red zone touches (36). A player with a history of injuries and missed games, Conner has remained durable this season and hasn’t missed a game yet (knock on wood). With the Cardinals in prime position to lock up the NFC West, and a fantasy playoff schedule that includes the Patriots, Panthers, and Rams, you can feel confident parting with a 2nd round pick to acquire the services of the Red Sea RB.

Perhaps the most curious name on our list of potential league winners is Chase Brown. Despite playing for one of the top passing teams in the league, Brown surprisingly ranks outside the top 12 in target share amongst running backs. Instead, Chase Brown has been the MOST productive RB over the last 4 weeks (according to Winks) purely on the ground. With an 84.8% snap share over the past month, which ranks only behind Jonathan Taylor and Chuba Hubbard, the Cincy RB has been virtually matchup-proof. With so many teams abandoning their runners in the face of negative game scripts, having the security of a player like Chase Brown is a cheat code in the fantasy playoffs.

Talented RBs with Risk

Returning to the RB Buy List, and playing at a higher level than he did last season, is Alvin Kamara. Through 11 games, Kamara accumulated 630 yards and 5 TDs on the ground and 446 yards and 1 TD through the air in 2023. This season, Kamara has amassed 894 yards and 6 TDs rushing, with an additional 450 yards and 1 TD receiving. One of the greatest duel-threat RBs of all time, Kamara is on pace for his FIRST 1,000-yard rushing season! With MVS and Juwan Johnson being the only other weapons on offense, the Saints will continue to lean heavily upon their franchise legend (73.3% snap share = 6th in the NFL). Kamara’s 22.9% target share is a whopping 4% higher than the next closest RB at 18.8% (CMC) and provides the Saint a relatively safe floor regardless of the game script. With prime matchups against the Giants and Raiders in weeks 14 and 17 respectively, Kamara could be a riskier play versus a dominant Commanders and Packers team in weeks 15 and 16. Being willing to trade a late 1st for one of the greatest and most underrated RBs of his generation.

Another buy from last year, and still outperforming expectations, is Kyren Williams. Similar to Chase Brown, Kyren plays for a Rams team that passes the ball more than just about any other team in the league and is not a factor in the receiving game (8% tgt share = 32nd). Although Kyren ranks outside the elite tier in some categories, the Ram makes our list a second time because once again he leads the NFL in snap share (88.7%), red zone touches (53), and is tied for 3rd in TDs with 11. A cornerstone piece that is featured by his brilliant coach, Kyren Williams is well worth his price tag of a 1st+.

If it hasn’t been clear yet, our RB selection focuses on five key areas: Snap Share, TDs, Red Zone Touches, Target Share, and Playoff Schedule. If there was one player that could be a league winner in defiance of our process, it would be rookie Bucky Irving. His snap share of 44% ranks him 40th in the NFL, which we do not foresee changing all that much despite Bucky outperforming Rachaad White because NFL coaches are often loyal to their vets to a fault. Additionally, Bucky’s 9.2% target share (28th), 6 TDs (18th), and 34 red zone touches (20th) do not scream “league-winning upside.” Against better judgment, Bucky Irving’s elite rushing efficiencies in several categories are hard to ignore, including elusiveness (1st), yards after contact (3rd), yards created/touch (3rd), and breakaway run rate (4th). However, the rookie RB ultimately makes our Buy List because Tampa Bay RBs are expected to score 31.1 points based upon the last month (1st, according to Winks), the Buccaneers’ offense has become extremely funneled through their RBs and Mike Evans, and Bucky has a tantalizing playoff schedule versus the Raiders, Cowboys, and Panthers. A late 1st or 2x 2nds is a fair price if you are willing to take a gamble on the electric player.

The last player on our list, whom our leadership went back and forth on the most, is Josh Jacobs. Another player who we advocated for in 2023, Josh Jacobs is having one of the best seasons of his productive career. Since entering the NFL in 2019, Jacobs has had the second most carries with 1,544, behind none other than Derrick Henry, who has 1,769 rush attempts in the past six seasons. At 5.1 evaded tackles/game (4th) and a 96.3 elusive rating (6th), Jacobs still has plenty of rushing savvy notwithstanding his heavy usage. His role on the Packers offense is ultimately the major reason why Jacobs remains a buy in 2024. With the 2nd most production on the best usage amongst RBs (according to Winks), Jacobs has the pleasure of playing for a team that runs the ball on an insane 66% neutral run rate on 1st & 2nd Downs (1st in NFL). Packers RBs are only behind the previously mentioned Buccanneers in terms of usage at 27.7 expected fantasy points. This elite usage provides enough context to look past the 16th-ranked snap share (64.1%), but it is difficult to ignore the championship matchup versus Minnesota, which ranks 1st against the run. Many players we advocated for in 2023 unfortunately disappeared when it mattered most for fantasy managers, which is why we are hesitant to fully recommend Josh Jacobs. At the end of the day, the decision of where you invest your fantasy faith is ultimately yours. Godspeed.

Works Cited

FantasyPros
Fantasy Points Data
Dynasty Berry
PFF
PlayerProfiler
NFL Week 13 Fantasy Football Rankings - The Blueprint - by Hayden Winks

https://underdognetwork.com/football/fantasy-rankings/nfl-week-13-fantasy-football-rankings-the-blueprint-2024

The Dossier

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T-Rock 12/2/24 T-Rock 12/2/24

Week 14 Waiver Targets

Waiver Targets

ReDraft (most of these players will be rostered in Dynasty leagues)

Isaac Guerendo - 5% rostership, spend 100% FAAB (The priority add of the week is Isaac Guerendo following the news that both CMC and Jordan Mason are done for the season. An intriguing prospect out of Louisville, Isaac’s 4.33 40-time (99th percentile), 125.7 Speed score (100th), and 135.1 Burst score (98th) are extremely impressive for his size at 6’0”, 221 lbs. Unload everything you have on acquiring the last man standing in SF.)
Ray Davis - 21% rostership, spend 15-18% FAAB (Barely owned in most leagues, Ray Davis is one of the most valuable handcuffs heading into the playoffs. He has flashed upside all season long and converted 11 rushes into 63 yards (5.73 YPC) and 1 TD in their snowy matchup versus the reeling 49ers. Skilled as a rusher and receiver, the Bills offense has consolidated to only a few key players. Should James Cook suffer an injury, Ray Davis could prove to be a league winner in the final stretch of the season.)
Chris Rodriguez - 1% rostership, spend 8-10% FAAB (Brian Robinson Jr. has been one of the best RBs this season, especially when it comes to playing through injury. But even he has his limits. Rodriguez may not be the first handcuff that comes to mind, but he has shined in the opportunities he’s been given, including the 13 carries he turned into 94 yards and 1 TD in week 13 versus the Titans. With Ekeler landing on IR, and Washington being a premier rushing team, Rodriguez needs to be owned in case Robinson misses time.)
Aidan O’Connell - 5% rostership, 8-10% FAAB (Ranked at the bottom of most QB rankings heading into week 13, Aidan finished as the QB12 with a noble effort versus the dreaded Chiefs. With six teams on bye next week, Aidan has the best matchup of all FA QBs on the road against Tampa Bay.)
Bryce Young - 12% rostership, spend 8-10% FAAB (Playing the best football of his short career over the last two weeks, Bryce Young took advantage of the lowly Bucs D and turned in a QB7 performance with 315 total yards and 2 TDs. The Panthers have a brutal matchup against the Eagles, but have an ideal schedule for the remainder of the season.)
Parker Washington - 4% rostership, spend 5-8% FAAB (The surprise #4 WR of the week was Parker Washington, who converted 12 targets into 6 catches for 103 yards and 1 TD. With only BTJ and Engram to share targets with, look for Mac Jones to continue to rely on Washington when they take on Tennessee next week.)
Mac Jones - 2% rostership, spend 5-8% FAAB (Thrust into service following the brutal hit Lawrence suffered, Jones had his best game with 235 yards and 2 TDs. With TLaw likely missing next week with a concussion, and six teams on bye next week, Mac is a solid option for managers looking to stream a QB.)
Juwan Johnson - 6% rostership, spend 1-2% FAAB (With a season-ending knee injury to Taysom Hill, and the only other options on offense being Kamara and MVS, the opportunities could expand for Johnson and Foster.)
Ray-Ray McCloud III - 18% rostership, spend 0-1% FAAB (If you are desperate for a WR, Ray-Ray McCloud offers some upside as the 3rd/4th pass-catching option behind London, Mooney, and Bijan for Atlanta. He has overtaken Pitts in terms of targets over the last two contests and went 4/6 for 95 yards in week 13. He should see similar success versus Minnesota.)
Tommy Tremble - 0% rostership, spend 0-1% FAAB (Tommy Tremble is back as the Panther’s starting TE following the neck injury to Ja’Tavion Sanders. Sanders hopes to play in week 14, but the coaches may advocate to sit Sanders and give the rookie more time to heal. A beneficiary of Bryce Young’s improved play, Tremble turned in a solid performance with 5/8 for 77 yards.)

Dynasty

Patrick Taylor Jr./Kyle Juszczyk - 2-7% rostership, 1-2% FAAB in Best Ball (It would appear that the Madden curse has spread from CMC into the entire 49ers organization. This leaves Isaac Guerendo, Patrick Taylor, and FB Kyle Juszczyk as the only healthy backs for San Fran.)

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T-Rock 11/29/24 T-Rock 11/29/24

WK 12 - Top 2024 RBs

Dynasty has seasons and cycles where various positions gain prominence and take control of fantasy football. In 2024, the most dominant position by far has been Running Backs. In a league that worships QBs and their WR counterparts, the RB was regarded as a “dead” position that belonged in a museum alongside dinosaurs. But now the position has returned in a big way for this season. Carefully review the following runners vetted by our proven RB Program.

RB Bona Fides

Baseline

PPG (PPR): Courtesy of FantasyPros

1. Saquon Barkley (PHI) - 24.2 PPG

2. Joe Mixon (HOU) - 21.1 PPG

3. Derrick Henry (BAL) - 20 PPG

3. Alvin Kamara (NO) - 20 PPG

5. Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) - 18.8 PPG

6. Bijan Robinson (ATL) - 18.3 PPG

7. Kenneth Walker III (SEA) - 17.9 PPG

8. De'Von Achane (MIA) - 17.3 PPG

9. James Cook (BUF) - 16.9 PPG

10. Breece Hall (NYJ) - 16.7 PPG

11. Josh Jacobs (GB) - 16.5 PPG

12. Kyren Williams (LAR) - 16.4 PPG

Strong Indicators

Snap Share %: Courtesy of PlayerProfiler

1. Kyren Williams (LAR) - 88.7%

2. Christian McCaffrey (SF) - 88.4%

3. Jonathan Taylor (IND) - 82%

4. Breece Hall (NYJ) - 77%

5. Saquon Barkley (PHI) - 74.8%

6. Alvin Kamara (NO) - 73.7%

7. Tony Pollard (TEN) - 73.5%

8. Chuba Hubbard (CAR) - 73.1%

9. Bijan Robinson (ATL) - 72.5%

10. Isiah Pacheco (KC) - 72%

11. Joe Mixon (HOU) - 67.3%

12. James Conner (ARI) - 65.5%

Target Share (>10%): Courtesy of PlayerProfiler

1. Alvin Kamara (NO) - 22.9%

2. Christian McCaffrey (SF) - 18.8%

3. De'Von Achane (MIA) - 16.3%

3. Isiah Pacheco (KC) - 16.3%

5. Breece Hall (NYJ) - 16.2%

6. Tony Pollard (TEN) - 14.4%

7. Bijan Robinson (ATL) - 14.3%

8. Kenneth Walker III (SEA) - 13.4%

9. Javonte Williams (DEN) - 12.7%

10. Rachaad White (TB) - 12.6%

11. Austin Ekeler (WAS) - 12.5%

12. Saquon Barkley (PHI) - 12.4%

Routes/G (>10): Courtesy of PlayerProfiler

1. Breece Hall (NYJ) - 28.5

2. Kenneth Walker III (SEA) - 21.9

3. Christian McCaffrey (SF) - 20.3

4. Rachaad White (TB) - 19.7

5. Alvin Kamara (NO) - 18.5

6. Zach Charbonnet (SEA) - 17.9

7. Bijan Robinson (ATL) - 17.7

8. Aaron Jones (MIN) - 17.5

9. Jerome Ford (CLE) - 16.9

10. Tony Pollard (TEN) - 15.5

11. De'Von Achane (MIA) - 15.4

12. Jonathan Taylor (IND) - 14.2

Fair Indicators

NFL Dominator (Top 18): Courtesy of PlayerProfiler

1. Joe Mixon (HOU) - 42.4%

2. Saquon Barkley (PHI) - 35.4%

2. Kyren Williams (LAR) - 35.4%

4. Chuba Hubbard (CAR) - 34.4%

5. Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) - 34.2%

6. De'Von Achane (MIA) - 31.7%

6. Kenneth Walker III (SEA) - 31.7%

8. Derrick Henry (BAL) - 31.1%

9. James Cook (BUF) - 27.8%

9. J.K. Dobbins (LAC) - 27.8%

9. Bijan Robinson (ATL) - 27.8%

12. Jonathan Taylor (IND) - 27.7%

Evaded Tackles/G: Courtesy of PlayerProfiler

1. James Conner (ARI) - 6.5

2. Kenneth Walker III (SEA) - 5.7

3. Bijan Robinson (ATL) - 5.3

4. Josh Jacobs (GB) - 5.1

5. Joe Mixon (HOU) - 4.9

5. David Montgomery (DET) - 4.9

7. Kyren Williams (LAR) - 4.6

7. Najee Harris (PIT) - 4.6

9. Saquon Barkley (PHI) - 4.5

10. Chase Brown (CIN) - 4.4

11. Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) - 4.3

12. Bucky Irving (TB) - 4.2

Breakaway Run Rate: Courtesy of PlayerProfiler

1. Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) - 11%

2. Jordan Mason (SF) - 7.9%

3. Derrick Henry (BAL) - 7.7%

4. Bucky Irving (TB) - 7.4%

4. Tank Bigsby (JAC) - 7.4%

6. Saquon Barkley (PHI) - 7.2%

7. Tyler Allgeier (ATL) - 7.1%

8. Tyrone Tracy Jr. (NYG) - 6.9%

9. Chuba Hubbard (CAR) - 6.8%

9. Jonathan Taylor (IND) - 6.8%

11. J.K. Dobbins (LAC) - 6.3%

12. Travis Etienne Jr. (JAC) - 6.1%

Total TDs: Courtesy of Dynasty Berry

1. Derrick Henry (BAL) - 15 TDs

2. Saquon Barkley (PHI) - 12 TDs

3. Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) - 11 TDs

3. Joe Mixon (HOU) - 11 TDs

3. James Cook (BUF) - 11 TDs

3. Kyren Williams (LAR) - 11 TDs

3. David Montgomery (DET) - 11 TDs

8. Chuba Hubbard (CAR) - 8 TDs

8. J.K. Dobbins (LAC) - 8 TDs

8. Kenneth Walker III (SEA) - 8 TDs

8. De'Von Achane (MIA) - 8 TDs

8. Josh Jacobs (GB) - 8 TDs

Red Zone Touches: Courtesy of Player Profiler

1. Kyren Williams (LAR) - 53

2. Saquon Barkley (PHI) - 47

2. Joe Mixon (HOU) - 47

4. Derrick Henry (BAL) - 44

5. Kareem Hunt (KC) - 42

5. Aaron Jones (MIN) - 42

7. David Montgomery (DET) - 41

8. Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) - 40

9. Chuba Hubbard (CAR) - 38

9. Najee Harris (PIT) - 38

11. Josh Jacobs (GB) - 36

11. James Conner (ARI) - 36

Faint Indicator

Yards Created/Touch: Courtesy of Player Profiler

1. Justice Hill (BAL) - 5.68 yds

2. Austin Ekeler (WAS) - 5.05 yds

3. Bucky Irving (TB) - 5.03 yds

4. Rachaad White (TB) - 4.91 yds

5. James Conner (ARI) - 4.43 yds

6. Tank Bigsby (JAC) - 4.38 yds

7. De'Von Achane (MIA) - 4.36 yds

8. Bijan Robinson (ATL) - 4.3 yds

9. Jerome Ford (CLE) - 4.22 yds

10. Kenneth Walker III (SEA) - 4.18 yds

11. Tyjae Spears (TEN) - 4.12 yds

12. Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) - 4.08 yds

Elite Trait (>90th% - 40, Speed, Burst, or Agility): Courtesy of Player Profiler

1. Saquon Barkley (PHI) - 96th 40, 99th Speed, 97th Burst

2. Breece Hall (NYJ) - 97th 40, 98th Speed, 94th Burst

3. Isiah Pacheco (KC) - 99th 40, 98th Speed

4. J.K. Dobbins (LAC) - 99th 40, 96th Speed

5. Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) - 99th 40, 91st Speed

6. Kenneth Walker III (SEA) - 98th 40, 96th Speed

7. Jonathan Taylor (IND) - 97th 40, 99th Speed

8. Justice Hill (BAL) - 96th 40, 96th Burst

9. Tyrone Tracy Jr. (NYG) - 93rd Burst, 96th Agility

10. Chase Brown (CIN) - 92nd 40, 95th Burst

11. Nick Chubb (CLE) - 90th Speed, 92nd Burst

College Dominator: Courtesy of Player Profiler

1. Kenneth Walker III (SEA) - 99th

1. Christian McCaffrey (SF) - 99th

3. Aaron Jones (MIN) - 97th

4. Austin Ekeler (WAS) - 96th

5. Derrick Henry (BAL) - 95th

5. Breece Hall (NYJ) - 95th

7. Ray Davis (BUF) - 94th

8. Chase Brown (CIN) - 93rd

8. Jonathan Taylor (IND) - 93rd

10. De'Von Achane (MIA) - 91st

11. Bijan Robinson (ATL) - 87th

11. Rachaad White (TB) - 87th

Targets/Route Run (Min. 25 Tgts): Courtesy of Fantasy Points Data

1. Alvin Kamara (NO) - 0.32

2. De'Von Achane (MIA) - 0.27

2. David Montgomery (DET) - 0.27

2. Rico Dowdle (DAL) - 0.27

5. Bucky Irving (TB) - 0.25

5. Javonte Williams (DEN) - 0.25

5. Travis Etienne Jr. (JAC) - 0.25

8. Breece Hall (NYJ) - 0.24

8. Chase Brown (CIN) - 0.24

10. Rachaad White (TB) - 0.23

11. Bijan Robinson (ATL) - 0.22

11. Kenneth Walker III (SEA) - 0.22

Yards After Contact/Attempt (Min. 25 Att.): Courtesy of Fantasy Points Data

1. Tank Bigsby (JAC) - 3.8 yds

2. Justice Hill (BAL) - 3.18 yds

3. Bucky Irving (TB) - 3.13 yds

4. Derrick Henry (BAL) - 3.09 yds

5. Jordan Mason (SF) - 2.98 yds

6. Tony Pollard (TEN) - 2.85 yds

7. Devin Singletary (NYG) - 2.8 yds

8. Jerome Ford (CLE)- 2.75 yds

9. Chuba Hubbard (CAR) - 2.73 yds

10. Josh Jacobs (GB) - 2.7 yds

11. Bijan Robinson (ATL) - 2.7 yds

12. James Conner (ARI) - 2.68 yds

Elusive Rating: Courtesy of PFF

1. Bucky Irving (TB) - 149.5

2. Tank Bigsby (JAC) - 132.4

3. Kenneth Walker III (SEA) - 122.5

4. James Conner (ARI) - 113.3

5. Tyler Allgeier (ATL) - 103.3

6. Josh Jacobs (GB) - 96.3

7. David Montgomery (DET) - 91.2

8. Justice Hill (BAL) - 89.7

8. Jerome Ford (CLE) - 86.7

10. Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) - 82.5

11. Jordan Mason (SF) - 81.1

12. Devin Singletary (NYG) - 79.4

Underdog Considerations

HPPR (Production) Rank: Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog

1. Saquon Barkley (PHI)

2. Josh Jacobs (GB)

3. Chase Brown (CIN)

4. Chuba Hubbard (CAR)

5. Joe Mixon (HOU)

6. Bijan Robinson (ATL)

7. De'Von Achane (MIA)

8. Jahmyr Gibbs (DET)

9. Derrick Henry (BAL)

10. Alvin Kamara (NO)

11. Breece Hall (NYJ)

12. David Montgomery (DET)

EXP (Usage) Rank: Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog

1. Chase Brown (CIN)

2. Chuba Hubbard (CAR)

3. Joe Mixon (HOU)

4. Alvin Kamara (NO)

5. Kareem Hunt (KC)

6. Saquon Barkley (PHI)

7. Aaron Jones (MIN)

8. Josh Jacobs (GB)

9. James Cook (BUF)

10. De'Von Achane (MIA)

11. Bijan Robinson (ATL)

12. Najee Harris (PIT)

Neutral Run Rate (1st & 2nd Downs)(Wks 9 -12): Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog

1. Green Bay Packers - 63%

2. New Orleans Saints - 58%

2. New York Giants - 58%

4. Detroit Lions - 57%

4. Philadelphia Eagles - 57%

4. Pittsburgh Steelers - 57%

7. Carolina Panthers - 55%

7. Indianapolis Colts - 55%

9. Tennessee Titans - 53%

10. Baltimore Ravens - 52%

10. Houston Texans - 52%

12. Miami Dolphins - 51%

12. Washington Commanders - 51%

RB Team Usage (Expected Fantasy Points) (Wks 9-12): Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog

1. Pittsburgh Steelers - 26.8 pts

2. Detroit Lions - 26.1 pts

3. Kansas City Chiefs - 25.8 pts

4. Green Bay Packers - 25.1 pts

5. Cincinnati Bengals - 25 pts

6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 24.7 pts

7. Minnesota Vikings - 24.2 pts

8. Miami Dolphins - 23.7 pts

9. Carolina Panthers - 23.1 pts

10. Houston Texans - 23 pts

10. New Orleans Saints - 23 pts

10. Philadelphia Eagles - 23 pts

Results

Overall:

1. Saquon Barkley (PHI) - 59 pts

2. Bijan Robinson (ATL) - 55 pts

3. Alvin Kamara (NO) - 53 pts

4. Joe Mixon (HOU) - 52 pts

5. Kenneth Walker III (SEA) - 50 pts

5. Chuba Hubbard (CAR) - 50 pts

7. De'Von Achane (MIA) - 49 pts

8. Breece Hall (NYJ) - 45 pts

9. Derrick Henry (BAL) - 43 pts

10. Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) - 42 pts

10. Josh Jacobs (GB) - 42 pts

10. James Conner (ARI) - 42 pts

Works Cited

FantasyPros
Fantasy Points Data
Dynasty Berry
PFF
PlayerProfiler
NFL Week 13 Fantasy Football Rankings - The Blueprint - by Hayden Winks

https://underdognetwork.com/football/fantasy-rankings/nfl-week-13-fantasy-football-rankings-the-blueprint-2024

The Dossier

Image created by DK

Matty Kiwoom 11/27/24 Matty Kiwoom 11/27/24

FANTASY FOOTBALL TRADE ADVICE: WEEK 13 BUY & SELL

There is just a couple of weeks left of the regular season. Some leagues’ trade deadlines have already passed aka the lame leagues. Seasonal leagues should allow trades until the very end of the regular season and dynasty leagues should NOT have a trade deadline. Trading is the most fun part of playing fantasy football. Ideas on how to improve a roster should never be limited. Sometimes the final, final playoff pushes can produce the most leverage for rebuilding teams in dynasty formats. My continuous battle for the removal of trade deadlines is not the purpose of this article. If you can make trades here is one buy and one sell regardless of your league settings.

Buy

Malik Nabers

There is no doubt that Malik Nabers is uber talented and his dynasty price will not be cheap. But there could be a buying window slightly open because he hasn’t finished as a top 20 wide receiver since Week 4. Hopefully the manager that rosters Nabers is not looking at any of his underlying metrics. Hopefully they are a fantasy production snob or box score scavenger. The rookie’s analytical profile remains elite. He is seeing top of the league volume and has proven to be dominant on the field. His quarterback play has been terrible, that is his biggest issue. Regardless of that fact, the Giants upcoming schedule is pretty soft for wide receivers and if Drew Lock becomes QB 1 in New York then we will see massive weeks on the horizon for Malik Nabers.

Who to trade away

Paying up for Malik is going to cost any fantasy manager but he is worth it. Wide receivers like Jordan Addison, Jameson Williams, and Tank Dell have good market value right now. Obviously that would just be a piece of a package going out. The second piece would look like a 2025 first round rookie pick in dynasty or an overachieving running back in seasonal. The backs that come to mind are Chuba Hubbard and Brian Robinson. It might be all three in dynasty leagues. Which would be A-OKAY for me. Even adding additional draft picks for a contender is still in a fair price range for the rookie standout. We all get what we pay for whether it is a kitchen knife or a wide receiver in fantasy football.

Sell

Steelers Running Backs

Typically teams looking to sell at this point in the season are focusing on 2025 and beyond. But selling Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris are a rare occasion whether a contender needs to be looking to move on from these backs. Najee Harris has had some super productive weeks and continues to get substantial volume. And Jayle Warren is starting to come on and up his usage. Both players have been able to be started over the last couple of weeks but their upcoming schedule is so difficult. The hardest running back fantasy playoff schedule by far. When you factor in the schedule and the fact that they will cannibalize each other’s ceilings is why contenders can move on now and avoid a future headache in the fantasy playoffs.

Who to trade for

Luckily Harris comes with a bit of notoriety and production and Warren is a fantasy favorite that is seeing a bump in touches. That kind of change in situation usually comes with a growing sense of a player’s value. Market indicators suggest that either back can be moved for a wide receiver that definitely profiles as a player fit for a contender. Three wideouts that are available in a lot of fantasy trade markets are Courtland Sutton, Calvin Ridley, and Jakobi Meyers to name a few. All three players are older and haven’t carried much trade value all season despite their production. All three have decent to good rest of season schedules and all three players have a well defined role that will not be changing much between now and the end of the season. Some trades don’t have a ton of hype or appeal but can be the difference between winning and losing a fantasy championship.

Stay trading my friends…

T-Rock 11/22/24 T-Rock 11/22/24

WK 11 - WR Buys Of 2024

During the 2023 Campaign, our Agency identified Stefon Diggs, Brandon Aiyuk, Michael Pittman, Keenan Allen, Mike Evans, Courtland Sutton, DeAndre Hopkins, Adam Thielen, Odell Beckham, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Tank Dell, and Noah Brown as WR Interests in the Week 11 Dossier. These WRs were ranked at the time of the week 11 Agency Bulletin and finished as follows in PPR leagues: Diggs 4th (finished 9th), Aiyuk 15th (finished 14th), Pittman 14th (finished 13th), Keenan 2nd (finished 8th), Evans 11th (finished 7th), Sutton 18th (finished 35th), Thielen 10th (finished 17th), Beckham 60th (finished 63rd), Metcalf 29th (finished 21st), Lockett 26th (finished 32nd), Dell 16th (finished 39th), and Brown 61st (finished 67th). Learning from last season, analytics can help identify the top-performing players, but their situation determines a player’s finish.

The Curse of T-Rock

There he goes. One of God's own prototypes. A high-powered mutant of some kind never even considered for mass production. Too weird to live, and too rare to die.

Raoul Duke - Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas

With a Bit of Luck, His Life was Ruined Forever

November 18th, 2024

Westerville, Ohio

It's 9:48 am and morale is already low. Locked in an eternal battle of depression and procrastination, I lay in bed the same way I had most of my life. Curled up in the fetal position with lovesickness, I am reminded of the women who left a lingering and intimate impression on me over the years, and yet I hadn't met any of them. These warriors braved a new and dark virtual world, giving up their precious youth to be subjected to every type of humiliation known to civilization. Their exploits would be immortalized, but their sacrifices would go unhonored under their assumed aliases. Where did they come from to answer such a call and where did they go after their tour? God, I hope they found love amidst their shell shock.

The bolt of encouragement to jumpstart my spirits never comes while I scroll endlessly through the corridors of Twitter and Discord, and now another 30 minutes have passed, and more of my precious sanity is wasted. I eventually straighten my sore legs and slinky out of bed. I enter the bathroom and immediately I feel like I'm in a prison's visitation room as I stare through the window and the man on the other side stares back at me. His shoulders are curled like a sleeping bat and his neck has the chins of a totem pole outside of a reservation. While studying this creature in its natural habitat, I notice the rifle leaning up in the corner of the closet and the urge to put down this wild animal quickly becomes overwhelming, fearing it may escape its candle-scented enclosure and wreak mayhem on the outside world. Contemplating doing the beast in before it tore me to shreds, my trainer texts me. She says I've gained too much weight, but to not be alarmed because she is upping my cardio and limiting my diet. Well, thank God for that! My dream of being a desirable piece of meat was still alive, but there couldn’t be any more delays. A life without carnitas and chips is a fucking prison.

Stepping into my upright sensory deprivation chamber, I crank up the hot water and crack open a cold Modelo to get a head start on my new diet. Shutting out the outside world, every worry and failure slithers up my body like a tropical reptile. Writing deadlines piling up, grocery lists a mile long, and not to mention a wife with a life sentence, doing hard time paying back my liquor debts, waiting downstairs to diagnose my void of a mental state before patting my ass and sending me back on the front lines. She no longer asks me to save money on snacks and booze before I go out, knowing full well that nothing can quell my salty, drunken lusts. Instead, she says “Oh, this looks good!” whenever I return from a treacherous Costco hunt. How many years of sainthood and cocktail dates were left in this poor woman before she reconsiders procreating with this mutant and ushering in a new generation of all-powerful trenchermen? What terrible cosmic wager did she lose with the Almighty to be stuck with me I wonder? If there’s one thing life has taught me, it's that life isn’t fair, but you always get more than you deserve.

Agency Bulletin

Brandon Aiyuk, Michael Pittman, Mike Evans, and DK Metcalf all managed to improve their standings over the final weeks of the season. Both Aiyuk and Pittman were able to maintain their standings thanks to solid play from their QBs and injuries to WRs who were previously ranked ahead of them. Mike Evans and QB buy, Baker Mayfield, became an unstoppable duo over the 2nd half of the season. Metcalf skyrocketed from his WR34 ranking in week 12 to WR18 after his massive performance in week 13 with 6/8 for 134 yards and 3 TDs. He coasted for the rest of the season as a fringe WR2.

Diggs had a brutal end to the season: finishing as the WR13 or better in 7 of the first 9 weeks of 2023, he ranked as the WR45 or worse in 6 of the last 8 weeks. Some might attribute this to scheme and deployment changes, but Diggs simply and dramatically cliffed as a route-runner in Man, Zone, and Press coverages from the very onset of the season. This goes to show that stats do not tell the whole story, and how critical film is when paired with stats.

Keenan, Sutton, Thielen, Beckham, Lockett, Dell, and Noah Brown all became cursed upon making my Buy List last year and went down with an injury immediately upon publication. Holding out until the last moment to avoid trading for an injured player and missing out on all the possible production by not trading for a player sooner is an unforgiving fine line.

Scouting Weeks 12-17 - Prioritize the players with the best matchups during the most critical stage of the season.

Trading Resources - Includes The Trade Checklist, Proactive Trading, Passive Trading, and Trading Stats

https://www.southharmonff.com/articles/category/The+Trading+Series

Buying Players Schedule

Weeks 1-2 - Be willing to trade a 3rd
Weeks 3-4 - Be willing to trade 2x 3rds
Weeks 5-8 - Be willing to trade a 2nd
Weeks 9-12 - Be willing to trade 2x 2nds (or 1x early 2nd)
Weeks 13-16- Be willing to trade a 1st

Many are aware that George Pickens has a special knack for catching any ball thrown his way. Down the field, in the redzone, and in contested situations, few compare to the acrobatic talents of the Pittsburgh WR. But Pickens has been much more than a highlight reel this season. At 7th in Target Share (26.9%), 8th in Yards/Route Run (2.69 yds), and 10th in Targets/Route Run (0.28 tgts), Pickens has operated as a reliable alpha for his team. There’s no doubt that Russell Wilson was the key to unlocking this offense, but if Russ is the key, that makes Pickens the engine that powers the Steelers into Super Bowl contention. With a 47% Air Yards Share (5th in NFL) and 2.58 yds/team pass attempt (5th), George has been utilized by OC Arthur Smith as one of the best down-field playmakers in 2024. With three plus matchups remaining on his schedule, George Pickens is appropriately valued as the WR13 on KTC.

If only Jayden Daniels was born a few years sooner, Terry McLaurin would have been a top 12 dynasty WR during his prime. At 29 years old, McLaurin still has plenty left in the tank in terms of athleticism. His down the field usage (7th in air yards share - 41.8%) and 9 contested catches (3rd in NFL) pair well with Jayden’s pinpoint passing. The clear #1 weapon for his team, Terry is averaging 2.25 yards/team pass attempt (12th) and is on pace to having the best season of his career. In terms of WoRP, Terry McLaurin has been the WR8 in Lineup leagues and the WR9 in Best Ball. With three plus matchups remaining on his schedule and his role on an explosive offense, we value McLaurin higer than his WR27 ranking on KTC, and would take him over Jaylen Waddle, Brandon Aiyuk, Chris Olave, and even Tyreek Hill, who are all ranked ahead of him.

Averaging the 12th most PPR PPG at WR (15.6 pts), Jauan Jennings is the most surprising buy on this list. With major and minor injuries affecting nearly ever other playmaker, Jauan has been the main source of stability for Shanahan’s offense. At 0.145 1st Downs/Route Run (6th) and 2.36 Yards Per Team Pass Attempt (9th), Jennings has been Purdy’s most reliable target in critical situations. With Kittle, Deebo, and Pearsall all occupying underneath/YAC roles, Jennings has shined as the sole down-field threat for the 49ers with 10 contested catches (2nd in NFL). According to Hayden Winks of Underdog, Jennings has the 7th highest production on the 4th highest expected usage amongst all WRs. With CMC still making his way back from injury, San Fran WRs have the 9th highest expected points in the league (30.2 pts). Many managers are unsure what to send or ask for since Jennings' production far outweighs his WR49 ranking on KTC. If there were no other options and a championship was on the line, a late 2nd-round pick would be the top dollar price we could stomach paying for the WR who is likely catching lightning in a bottle for 2024.

Labeled an All-Pro cone by some, Tee Higgins has been both a menace and a hero to managers in 2024. He checks some of the most important boxes we look for in a WR. He plays a key role for Joe Burrow as a chain-mover with the 9th most 1st-Downs/Route Run (0.130), has the 8th highest target share in the NFL (26.5%), and the 10th most yards per team pass attempt (2.32 yds). He also stretches the field with his the 12th largest air yards share in the league (39.2%) and has the 7th most contested catches amongst WRs (7). Not to mention, Tee Higgins plays for the Cincinatti Bengals, who feed their WRs the 3rd most expected points at the position with 39.7 pts. The success of the team’s offense paired with Tee’s role and efficiency has culminated into Higgins scoring the 6th most PPG (18.5 pts), and being the most productive WR on the 2nd best usage according to Hayden Winks. Unfortunately, Tee is not without risk considering the games hes missed with “injury” while he waits for a new contract next year. At WR22 on KTC, we would take him ahead of players like Rashee Rice, DK Metcalf, JSN, and perhaps Rome Odunze in the right scenario. Tee Higgins is a buy for only the most cavalier and savviest of dynasty players.

Of all the players on this list, Cooper Kupp by far and away has the most upside. With the two most correlative metrics that translate to success for WRs, Kupp is 3rd in target share behind Nabers and Jefferson (29.1%) and 3rd in Targets/Route Run behind Rice and Puka (0.33). The Rams are very much in the running to win the NFC West, and with all their key players healthy they stand a good chance to run the tables. McVay has decided that their key to victory will be through the air, and his WRs have benefited more than any other position group in football (1st with 42 expected points). This has translated into another amazing season for Kupp, who is 2nd in PPG (20.1) and has the 6th most production on the 11th best usage for WRs according to Winks. Dynasty managers will of course be wary of his age and proneness to injuries, but at WR33 prices on KTC and the Rams committed to keeping him around, there are only a few guys who can produce at the elite level of Kupp and none of them are at his same cost.

As someone who frequently chooses the Demolition Class in video games, we can not recommend too many others ahead of the human missile, Jameson Williams. The third year player has taken a leap in developing his route-running tree, is averaging the 2nd most YAC/Reception (10.46 yds), and has the 12th best aDOT (15.6 yds), making Jamo one of the most explosive players in 2024. Best of all, he plays a key role on the the Detroit Lions, who are looking to send a message with their unmerciful play and show of utter dominance. Acquiring players that can do things no one else can typically works out well for managers, and as the WR30 on KTC, it isn’t until you reach Tyreek Hill at WR24 that you encounter a player of the same ilk. Every team needs that final piece to put them over the top and send shivers down their opponent’s spines. Pull the pin and go out in a blaze of glory with Jameson Williams.

Khalil Shakir and Courtland Sutton round out the Buy List as the best WR3 and depth pieces managers can acquire in 2024. The #1 option for two of the best teams in the AFC, both Shakir and Sutton have operated as their teams’ most reliable and productive options for their terrific QBs. Shakir gets home with his elite YAC ability (8.46 yds/rec - 6th), but on film he serves a critical role in beating both man and zone coverage on underneath, over the middle, and blitz situations for the Bills. For more info on Shakir, be sure to check out Matt Harmon’s article, Khalil Shakir and the ideal type of wide receiver for the modern NFL. A buy in 2023, Sutton continues to be undervalued with the 7th best air yards share in the NFL (41.8%), and has the 7th best usage amongst receivers for a Broncos team that rewards their WRs with the 4th best expected points in the league (37.2 pts), according to Hayden Winks. With a KTC ranking of WR40 and WR47 for Shakir and Sutton respectively, these playmakers are the perfect under-the-radar buy for sharp managers.

Wan’Dale, Jakobi, Adams, Tillman, and Downs were all considered WR buys because of their production and price. But they are ultimately too risky, considering the instability of their offenses and quarterback play.

Works Cited

FantasyPros
PFF
Fantasy Points Data
PlayerProfiler
Khalil Shakir and the ideal type of wide receiver for the modern NFL by Matt Harmon

https://receptionperception.com/khalil-shakir-and-the-ideal-type-of-wide-receiver-for-the-modern-nfl/

NFL Week 12 Fantasy Football Rankings - The Blueprint by Hayden Winks

https://underdognetwork.com/football/fantasy-rankings/nfl-week-12-fantasy-football-rankings-the-blueprint-2024

The Dossier

Image created by DK

Matty Kiwoom 11/21/24 Matty Kiwoom 11/21/24

WEEK 12 FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS: Buy/Sell Combo

The end of the season is in sights and it is time to lock up that playoff berth in your fantasy football league. Now is not the time to play scare, now is the time to give it everything you got. That sentence is objectively hilarious given that our hobby is a proxy of another game. Shoutout to the Podfather who coined that phrase years and years ago. These upcoming fantasy decisions will be the reason why teams are playing for a championship and others are looking to 2025. Now is the time to formulate plans and execute those plans to win the league. HMy Week 12 rankings are OUT NOW so let me dive into some of the most important aspects of setting fantasy football lineups.

Buy Before The Price Spike

Nico Collins flashed in his first game back from injury but did not help anyone win their fantasy football matchup. That may present an opportunity to buy a player on a team needing more certainty. If that is the case in your league buy Nico Collins asap. He saw seven targets against Dallas and this week he is projected to smash (join the South Harmon Patreon to see the C.U.C.K. Score) and will finish as a top five wide reciever this week. The bye week can sometimes cause fantasy managers to fall asleep a bit and that is why it is time to buy Tyrone Tracy Jr. before his fantasy manager remembers how good he is. He is a potential top 12 running back this week given Tampa Bay’s inability to stop pass catching backs. Tommy Cutlets is about to change his nickname to Tommy Checkdown.

Sell Before It’s Too Late

When the 2024 season kicked off Tony Pollard came out of the gates on fire. In the Titans first five games of the year, Pollard scored 15.2 fantasy points per game. Over their last five games, that number has come down about four points per contest. This weekend Tennessee takes on the Houston Texans. The Texan’s run defense has been really tough for opposing running backs. Volume keeps Pollard inside my top 20 but given his upcoming matchup and the rumored fatigue Pollard has been feeling, now seems like the perfect time to cash in your fantasy football chips. Send TP kind regards for scoring almost twenty points per game over the first part of the season.

They’re HERE!

Week 11 consisted of a number of breakout performances. Performances that change the way they should be ranked for the rest of the season. Jaxon Smith-Njigba exploded for ten catches and over 100 yards last week and proved that he should be valued every single week. This week JSN takes on the Cardinals in a game that could see a lot of fantasy points and he’s ranked inside my top ten! The Broncos rookie quarterback, Bo Nix has finished as a top three QB in 50-percent of his games over the past month. He threw for more than 300 yards and four touchdowns last week. It is tough to keep Nix out of the top 10-12 when he has a good matchup. Well, this week he plays the Raiders. Once these young players tell you who they are…sometimes we should listen.

Check out the entire Week 12 positional ranks on South Harmon dot com to help make even the toughest of lineup and replacement decisions.

T-Rock 11/19/24 T-Rock 11/19/24

Week 12 Waiver Targets

Waiver Targets

ReDraft (most of these players will be rostered in Dynasty leagues)

Roschon Johnson - 14% rostership, spend 10-12% FAAB (At 42% snap share in their latest contest and a goalline carry that he converted into 6 points, Roschon could provide value in a pinch should Swift suffer a future injury.)
Devaughn Vele - 6% rostership, 1-3% FAAB (Firmly entrenched as the #2 target behind Sutton, Vele has a safe floor on a Broncos offense that continues to outperform expectations with the rise of Bo Nix.)
Will Dissly - 29% rostership, spend 1-3% FAAB (The Chargers offense is clicking on all cylinders as one of the most balanced attacks in the league. If you need a backup TE to play for upcoming bye-weeks or in case of injury, Dissly offers solid upside as one of the top TEs in the league at YPRR, TPRR, and YAC.)
Kendrick Bourne - 3% rostership, spend 0-2% FAAB (It’s difficult to trust which WR in NE is going to have the most productive day between Bourne, Douglas, and Boutte, but Bourne has the most upside given his role as the team’s X-receiver and his prior production from seasons past. He only played on 47% of the snaps in their latest matchup, but should see more opportunities moving forward.)

Dynasty

Tommy DeVito - 20% rostership, 15-18% FAAB in Best Ball (He’s back as the Giants starter, and thank the Lord for it! Last season, DeVito gave fantasy owners 4 top 19 QB weeks, including the QB7 in week 11 of 2023. With an exploitable TB defense being his first matchup as the new signal caller, and Malik Nabers/Tyrone Tracy as his main weapons, DeVito offers more upside than the typical backup QB.)

The Dossier

Image created by DK

Check out the latest from South Harmon

Videos: https://www.youtube.com/@SouthHarmonFF/videos

Podcasts: https://open.spotify.com/show/4DRA34XipOMfw4vNi1VITC

Matty Kiwoom 11/14/24 Matty Kiwoom 11/14/24

WEEK 11 FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS: Welcome back!

Ten down, seven more to go and that is only for the squads that made the fantasy playoffs. The temperature outside is plummeting but the temperature in fantasy football leagues is turning up. These upcoming weeks will determine whether or not our teams are making the fantasy playoffs. Will all the moves and time spent altering the roster translate to a ticket to the big dance? Now is not the time to let up, put the pedal to the metal people. My Week 11 rankings are OUT NOW so let me dive into some of the most important aspects of setting fantasy football lineups.

Time is a Flat Circle

It took more than half of the season but here we are again everybody. Travis Kelce, Christian McCaffrey, T.J. Hockenson, and Cooper Kupp are all pushing the top tier at their position in this week’s rankings. In his first game back on the field, CMC had 19 total touches for over 100 total yards and scored 16.7 ppr fantasy points. He looked like the player we were all waiting for. Kelce has been a beast lately. Despite being labeled a fantasy bust early on in the season, he has gone for more than 20 fantasy points each of the last three weeks. There were a handful of veteran players that were either hurt or had some down weeks to start that have now reminded the fantasy world why they are considered the class of the NFL. They were who we thought they were.

Detroit’s Dominant Run Game

The Detroit offensive line has been so good this year. They are one of the most dominant units in the league and that has translated into both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs being weekly contributors to fantasy teams. Gibbs is currently the RB 5 and D-Mont is the RB 16 in fantasy football. This week the Lions take on the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags do not have a strong run defense and Sleeper has them as the third most advantageous matchup. Considering their 2024 production and the upcoming matchup both Detroit running backs are inside my top 15 this week. Dan Campbell loves that grit and it shows each week when these monsters up front create runways for these backs to attack their opponents defense. It is rare to be excited to start two backs on the same team but the Lions and their offensive line makes it easy.

Caleb Williams Outside Looking In

Rookie quarterbacks are on the rise. Jayden Daniels is a weekly top five to eight quarterback in fantasy, Bo Nix has been a pleasant surprise and Drake Maye is looking like a future fantasy star. This week three of the four rookie starting quarterbacks are inside the my top 15. The one outlier is the former top pick in the NFL Draft, Caleb Williams. After a stint of strong games earlier in the season things are looking bleak for Willaims and the Bears offense. From Weeks 3 to 6, he threw nine touchdowns and finished as a top 8 QB twice in that four game span. Since then, Williams has been the QB 28, 28, and 26. With a matchup against the Packers this week, it doesn’t seem like the first overall pick will turn things around.

Check out the entire Week 11 positional ranks on South Harmon dot com to help make even the toughest of lineup and replacement decisions.

T-Rock 11/13/24 T-Rock 11/13/24

WK 10 - Top 2024 WRs

Dynasty continues to be a Wide Receiver-driven market. If QBs are the foundation of any well-constructed team, the pillars of your roster are the WR position. Carefully review the following receivers vetted by our WR Candidate process (sample = min. 10 targets).

WR Bona Fides

Baseline

PPG (PPR): Courtesy of FantasyPros

1. Ja’Marr Chase - 22.5 PPG

2. Nico Collins - 21.3 PPG

3. Chris Godwin - 19.7 PPG

4. Justin Jefferson - 18.6 PPG

5. Cooper Kupp - 18.4 PPG

6. CeeDee Lamb - 17.4 PPG

6. Malik Nabers - 17.4 PPG

8. Amon-Ra St. Brown - 17 PPG

9. A.J. Brown - 16.9 PPG

10. Garrett Wilson - 16.6 PPG

11. Rashee Rice - 16.2 PPG

11. Tee Higgins - 16.2 PPG

Strong Indicators

Target Share %: Courtesy of Fantasy Points Data

1. Malik Nabers - 33.8%

2. Justin Jefferson - 29.7%

3. A.J. Brown - 28.6%

4. Cooper Kupp - 28%

5. Garrett Wilson - 27.6%

6. Amon-Ra St. Brown - 26.9%

7. Tee Higgins - 26.7%

8. Chris Godwin - 26.1%

9. Josh Downs - 25.9%

9. George Pickens - 25.9%

11. Davante Adams - 25.3%

12. CeeDee Lamb - 25.1%

Targets Per Route Run: Courtesy of Fantasy Points Data

1. Rashee Rice - 0.35

2. Malik Nabers - 0.33

2. Josh Downs - 0.33

4. Cooper Kupp - 0.32

4. Puka Nacua - 0.32

6. Dontayvion Wicks - 0.31

7. Adonai Mitchell - 0.3

8. Amon-Ra St. Brown - 0.29

8. CeeDee Lamb - 0.29

10. Justin Jefferson - 0.28

10. Garrett Wilson - 0.28

10. Chris Godwin - 0.28

10. Nico Collins - 0.28

Fair Indicators

Contested Catches: Courtesy of Fantasy Points Data

1. Drake London - 11

2. CeeDee Lamb - 9

2. Garrett Wilson - 9

2. Terry McLaurin - 9

5. Allen Lazard - 8

6. Malik Nabers - 7

6. Chris Godwin - 7

6. Romeo Doubs - 7

6. Michael Wilson - 7

10. Justin Jefferson - 6

10. Tee Higgins - 6

10. George Pickens - 6

10. Davante Adams - 6

10. Jauan Jennings - 6

10. Darnell Mooney - 6

10. DJ Moore - 6

10. Darius Slayton - 6

10. Michael Pittman - 6

Air Yards Share: Courtesy of Fantasy Points Data

1. Malik Nabers - 49.5%

1. Calvin Ridley - 49.5%

3. A.J. Brown - 48.4%

4. Rashid Shaheed - 48.2%

5. George Pickens - 44.6%

6. Terry McLaurin - 43.4%

7. DK Metcalf - 43%

8. Nico Collins - 42.6%

9. Justin Jefferson - 42.4%

10. Marvin Harrison Jr. - 41.5%

11. Courtland Sutton - 40.8%

12. Tee Higgins - 40.4%

Yards Per Route Run: Courtesy of Fantasy Points Data

1. A.J. Brown - 3.79

2. Nico Collins - 3.63

3. Rashee Rice - 3.47

4. Justin Jefferson - 2.99

5. Jauan Jennings - 2.84

5. Jayden Reed - 2.84

7. George Pickens - 2.74

8. Terry McLaurin - 2.64

9. Chris Godwin - 2.62

10. Puka Nacua - 2.6

11. Ja'Marr Chase - 2.59

12. Khalil Shakir - 2.54

1st Downs Per Route Run: Courtesy of Fantasy Points Data

1. Rashee Rice - 0.181

2. Nico Collins - 0.173

3. A.J. Brown - 0.158

4. Amon-Ra St. Brown - 0.148

5. Chris Godwin - 0.145

6. Puka Nacua - 0.135

7. Justin Jefferson - 0.133

8. Tee Higgins - 0.132

9. Jauan Jennings - 0.131

10. Terry McLaurin - 0.13

11. Josh Downs - 0.126

12. Chris Olave - 0.124

Faint Indicator

Yards After The Catch: Courtesy of Fantasy Points Data

1. JuJu Smith-Schuster - 10 yds

2. Jameson Williams - 9.3 yds

3. Keon Coleman - 9.27 yds

4. Kalif Raymond - 8.71 yds

5. Quentin Johnston - 8.7 yds

6. Khalil Shakir - 8.69 yds

7. Mecole Hardman - 8.6 yds

8. Deebo Samuel Sr. - 8.41 yds

9. Jayden Reed - 8.08 yds

10. Rashee Rice - 8 yds

11. Ryan Miller - 7.83 yds

12. Xavier Worthy - 7.75 yds

Avg Depth Of Target: Courtesy of Fantasy Points Data

1. Jermaine Burton - 24.2 yds

2. Alec Pierce - 22.4 yds

3. Jalin Hyatt - 20.8 yds

4. Marquez Valdes-Scantling - 18.8 yds

5. Rashid Shaheed - 17.7 yds

5. Simi Fehoko - 17.7 yds

7. Bo Melton - 17.6 yds

8. Kayshon Boutte - 17.1 yds

9. Demarcus Robinson - 16.8 yds

10. Jameson Williams - 16.3 yds

11. Calvin Ridley - 16.1 yds

12. Christian Watson - 15.9 yds

Receiving Yards Per Team Pass Attempt: Courtesy of Player Profiler

1. A.J. Brown - 3.95 yds

2. Justin Jefferson - 3.16 yds

3. Nico Collins - 2.98 yds

4. Ja'Marr Chase - 2.74 yds

5. George Pickens - 2.6 yds

6. Terry McLaurin - 2.47 yds

7. Chris Godwin - 2.46 yds

8. Rashee Rice - 2.38 yds

8. Zay Flowers - 2.38 yds

10. DeVonta Smith - 2.34 yds

11. Jauan Jennings - 2.25 yds

12. Jayden Reed - 2.22 yds

Underdog Considerations

HPPR (Production) Rank: Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog

1. Ja'Marr Chase

2. Cedric Tillman

3. CeeDee Lamb

4. George Pickens

5. Jaxon Smith-Njigba

6. Amon-Ra St. Brown

7. Puka Nacua

8. Justin Jefferson

9. Jakobi Meyers

10. Calvin Ridley

11. Terry McLaurin

12. A.J. Brown

EXP (Expectation) Rank: Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog

1. CeeDee Lamb

2. Ja'Marr Chase

3. Puka Nacua

4. Cedric Tillman

5. Jauan Jennings

6. Calvin Ridley

7. Davante Adams

8. Malik Nabers

9. Deebo Samuel Sr.

10. Cooper Kupp

11. Drake London

12. Jakobi Meyers

WR Team Usage (Expected Fantasy Points) (Wks 7-10): Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog

1. Cleveland Browns - 38.3 pts

1. Los Angeles Rams - 38.3 pts

3. Dallas Cowboys - 35.4 pts

4. Denver Broncos - 32.9 pts

5. New York Jets - 32.3 pts

6. Cincinnati Bengals - 31.3 pts

7. Green Bay Packers - 30.7 pts

8. Chicago Bears - 30.4 pts

9. Tennessee Titans - 30.1 pts

10. New York Giants - 29.6 pts

10. Indianapolis Colts - 29.6 pts

12. San Francisco 49ers - 29.1 pts

Results

Overall Scores:

1. Justin Jefferson - 49 pts

2. Ja'Marr Chase - 46 pts

3. A.J. Brown - 44 pts

4. CeeDee Lamb - 43 pts

4. George Pickens - 43 pts

6. Malik Nabers - 42 pts

7. Terry McLaurin - 40 pts

7. Jauan Jennings - 40 pts

9. Chris Godwin - 37 pts

9. Puka Nacua - 37 pts

9. Nico Collins - 37 pts

9. Rashee Rice - 37 pts

Works Cited

FantasyPros
Fantasy Points Data
PlayerProfiler
NFL Week 10 Recap - Fantasy Usage Model by Hayden Winks

https://underdognetwork.com/football/analysis/nfl-week-10-recap-fantasy-usage-model

The Dossier

Image created by DK

Matty Kiwoom 11/13/24 Matty Kiwoom 11/13/24

FANTASY FOOTBALL TRADE ADVICE: WEEK 11 BUY & SELL

Believe it or not, we have seen ten fantasy football matchups come and go. As the fantasy world prepares for Week 11, the good fantasy teams are starting to look at the fantasy playoffs. It’s never about sacrificing the coming weeks to try and predict the future over a month from now but if you can stay in a tier or use surplus to add a player with a good playoff schedule then it’s a win-win. Of course there is a lot that can change from now until then but it is never too early to buy players that will help now but will have a chance to be a difference maker in the fantasy playoffs.

Buy

Brock Bowers

It has only been a few months into his professional career and it is already abundantly clear that Brock Bowers is a special player. Through nine games, Bowers has racked up 57 catches for 580 yards. He has put up over 14 fantasy points per game despite only scoring twice. The rookie is currently the second best tight end in fantasy football. Bowers has played as advertised. He has been great after catch, he leads the sport in TE YAC, and his utilization metrics strongly suggest that he is the alpha pass catcher on the Raiders. Not only is the kid awesome, Vegas has an upcoming schedule that looks great for tight ends. He’ll see the second easiest fantasy playoff schedule and it's nowhere near a gauntlet over the next month either. WoRP indicates that tight ends do not provide enough value to warrant buying but Bowers is the exception, not the rule.

Who to trade away

It is time to hope that the team that rosters Bowers is not playoff bound. Moving a tight end to turn things around, especially in seasonal formats, is a good process. That is where we can capitalize and acquire one of the very few difference makers at tight end. I’ve already added some Bowers and I used my depth to do it. Using Najee Harris, I have plenty of RB depth, so upgrading at tight end will solidify my roster for the post season. You get what you pay for and paying for Brock Bowers will end up being the lynch pin for a lot of fantasy football championship squads.

Sell

Mark Andrews

I salute everyone who showed off their diamond hands and continued to roster Mark Andrews through the hard times. After being left for dead five weeks in, he has produced enough over the last five for fantasy managers to cash in. Andrews has scored five touchdowns over those five games which isn’t a bad thing but the underlying metrics are not exactly what the fantasy world is used to. The veteran isn’t getting the volume of an elite tight end and his yards after catch is subpar. The Ravens have a number of tough matchups coming up including in the fantasy playoffs. Now bad defensive matchups are not enough to fade members of the high powered Baltimore offense BUT when you combine the schedule, the lack of supportive analytical metrics and Diontae Johnson getting more involved. Now is a great time to head to the fantasy football bank and make a Mark Andrews sized deposit.

Who to trade for

Cashing in on Mark Andrews would mean moving him for other players that will be weekly starters. Market indicators suggest that guys like George Pickens, Calvin Ridley, and Rachaad White are all on the table for Andrews. That would be the kind of deal that can be made in a one for one deal. He has also boosted his value to the point where tiering down can be lucrative. Tiering down from Andrews to Tucker Kraft or even lower to Ja’Tavion Sanders would keep rosters competitive while garnishing another valuable player. Don’t be one of those fantasy managers that puts in the tough work holding through the darkest days just to miss the boat to add value to a roster.

The fantasy world is through Week 10 and it’s time to either bolster up for the playoffs or make one last push towards winning. Now is the time to make moves. Now is the time to swing for the fences. Now is the time to set the fantasy team up to win in 2024 or gear up for a future championship run. Stay trading my friends…

T-Rock 11/11/24 T-Rock 11/11/24

Week 11 Waiver Targets

Waiver Targets

ReDraft (most of these players will be rostered in Dynasty leagues)

Mike Williams - 20% rostership, spend 18-20% FAAB (The Steelers rarely trade for WRs, but Williams’ skillset is exactly what Pittsburgh has been looking to pair with Pickens. Now the team has two of the best big-play X-receivers in the NFL that can scream down the perimeter of the field and high-point the signature moon-shots of Russell Wilson. Williams’ arrival couldn’t come at a better time with the health of Najee Harris’ ankle being up in the air, the team could become pass-heavy over the next few weeks.)
Audric Estime - 7% rostership, 15-18% FAAB (One of the most shocking splits from week 10 was the 14 rush attempts and 45% snap share that Estime received compared to the 1 attempt and 29% share that Javonte had. In a limited sample, Estime has been more efficient than Javonte, and with Williams in the last year of his contract, this game may be a sign of the end for Javonte in Denver. Audric was one of our favorite RBs in this year’s class and needs to be owned.)
John Metchie - 3% rostership, spend 15-18% FAAB (A potential trade candidate earlier in the season for his preseason performance, the Texans were wise to hold onto Metchie following injuries to Nico and Diggs. With defenses focusing on Tank Dell, Metchie was the top Texans receiver with 5/6 for 74 yards and 1 TD. With no guarantee that Nico won’t miss more games and the Texans looking for answers on offense, don’t be surprised to see Metchie continue to produce down the stretch.)
Gus Edwards - 19% rostership, spend 8-10% FAAB (Continually dismissed as an antiquated RB, Gus in his first game back from injury led the Chargers in rushing with an efficient 10 carries for 55 yards. Edwards has a nose for the endzone and could serve as a decent FLEX option if he can stay healthy and earn more touches on the ultra-efficient LA offense.)
Dawson Knox - 4% rostership, 3-5% FAAB (The Bills are reeling with injuries at receiver. Amari and Keon missed week 10 with injuries and now Dalton Kincaid is dealing with a knee injury. Knox has chemistry with Josh Allen and could serve as the #2 pass-catcher behind Shakir if their other top pass-catchers miss time.)

Dynasty

Marquez Valdes-Scantling/Tylan Wallace - 20% & 1% rostership, 0-2% FAAB in Best Ball (Welcome to week 11, where MVS and Tylan Wallace lead the list of dynasty pickups in the wasteland waiver wire. Do not spend any FAAB chasing the week 10 performances of these players, who both enjoyed the best games of their careers. The Saints have no one to throw to on offense outside of Kamara, so MVS could enjoy a few more decent games in 2024. The Ravens have a crowded receiver room and will likely never utilize Wallace like they did in week 10. You are praying for long TD receptions to these players in Best Ball formats only.)

The Dossier

Image created by DK

Check out the latest from South Harmon

Videos: https://www.youtube.com/@SouthHarmonFF/videos

Podcasts: https://open.spotify.com/show/4DRA34XipOMfw4vNi1VITC

T-Rock 11/8/24 T-Rock 11/8/24

WK 9 - QB Buys Of 2024

Killer Quarterbacks

I'm on the verge of tears by the time we arrive at Espace, since I'm positive we won't have a decent table. But we do, and relief washes over me in an awesome wave.

Bateman - American Psycho

New Costco Snacks. What Do You Think?

I live on the top floor of the Timbers Apartments Building. My name is Tarik Meziane. I’m 35 years old. I believe in buying whatever you want without looking at the price tag. When I arrive home from the liquor store, my wife likes to remind me how high my credit card is. It’s well over 1000 now. I’m trying to listen to the new Harry Styles, but my wife keeps asking me to help with the dishes. I act like I don’t hear her, hoping she’ll stop buzzing in my ear. Eventually, I tell her, “I will after I’m done with my article,” knowing full well I’ll be too tired and instead will end my evening watching The Sopranos, followed by Bob Ross.

There is an idea of a Tarik Meziane; some kind of abstraction I’ve built up over years from Ray Lewis' motivational speeches. But there is no real me: only a high-powered mutant who God never considered for mass production. And though I can downplay my big brain, and you can see my intensity when I prepare you a meal and feel overwhelmed by the burst of umami from its rich balance and maybe you go out of your way to praise me for my work... I simply do not care.

Agency Bulletin

During the 2023 Campaign, our Agency identified Tua Tagovailoa, Jared Goff, Russell Wilson, and Baker Mayfield as QB Interests in the Week 9 Dossier. At the time of the Agency Bulletin, Tua, Goff, Wilson, and Baker were the 5th, 12th, 15th, and 16th-ranked QBs respectively (4-pts/Pass TD). Tua would finish (wk 17) as the QB10 in 2023, Goff finished as the QB8, Wilson as the QB12, and Baker ended the season as the QB9. Learning from last season, analytics can help identify the top-performing players, but their situation determines a player’s finish.

The Dolphin's offense was built as a finely tuned system in 2023. But there was a fatal flaw in McDaniels’ genius: they could not recover from the smallest setbacks or interruptions while on offense. Any penalty, error, or opposition encountered by the offense and the entire operation broke down with no hopes of recovery. It would be near impossible to anticipate this type of fall-off from data in weeks 1-9 when Miami executed perfectly. The biggest takeaway from Tua is understanding the strengths and weaknesses of particular schemes and coaches.

Jared Goff is an interesting case. Between weeks 10-14, Jared Goff fluctuated between the QB12 and QB14, hampered by injuries to his offensive line and playing poorly under pressure. But in week 15 Goff went nuclear with 5 TDs and 278 passing yards against the Denver Broncos, shooting him up the leaderboard to QB9 on the season. This massive performance, injuries to Cousins and Herbert, and the declining play of Tua, Mahomes, Howell, and Dobbs were enough for Goff to overtake all these signal-callers in the final seven weeks of the season.

Russell Wilson climbed to QB9 in week 16 after a top-10 performance against the Patriots. For his efforts, he was promptly benched by the Denver Broncos for financial reasons after the team lost 3 of their last 4 games with Russ at the helm. Contracts and their stipulations are not our forte at the Agency, but it will be moving forward when considering teams who face similar circumstances and have nothing to play for.

Baker Mayfield was one of the greatest success stories of 2023 and it has continued in 2024. Like Goff, Baker exploded in week 15 with 381 passing yards and 4 TDs. In the final 3 weeks of the season, Baker was 2nd with 973 passing yards (Flacco - 1,051) and tied for 1st with 8 passing TDs (Lamar & Flacco). With a winnable schedule, a bargain price on KTC, and an unbeatable connection with Mike Evans, jumping on the Baker bandwagon made a lot of sense.

Scouting Weeks 12-17 - Prioritize the players with the best matchups during the most critical stage of the season.

Trading Resources - Includes The Trade Checklist, Proactive Trading, Passive Trading, and Trading Stats

https://www.southharmonff.com/articles/category/The+Trading+Series

Buying Players Schedule

Weeks 1-2 - Be willing to trade a 3rd
Weeks 3-4 - Be willing to trade 2x 3rds
Weeks 5-8 - Be willing to trade a 2nd
Weeks 9-12 - Be willing to trade 2x 2nds (or 1x early 2nd)
Weeks 13-16- Be willing to trade a 1st

All Hail, The 2020 QB Class

Joe Burrow is having one of the best seasons of his career. In 2022, Burrow had 2,535 passing yds, 18 TDs, and 6 INTs (141 yds rushings, 4 TDs) through 9 weeks. This year, he has 2,244 passing yards, 20 TDs, and 4 INTs (117 yards rushing, 1 TD). With a score of 51 pts, the only QB who graded out better in our evaluations was Lamar Jackson, who scored 58 pts. This is due largely to Burrow’s prowess as an elite passer in 2024. Joey B is 2nd in QBR with 76.3, which is all about EPA (Expected Points Added). This metric takes into account passing, rushing, sacks, penalties, touchdowns, and turnovers. Each play is weighted on difficulty, the context of the game, and the opposing defense. Burrow is also 2nd in PFF Passing Grade at 90.7. PFF grades are based on the quarterback's accuracy, decision-making, and how well they progress on a play relative to expectation. He is 3rd in Passer Rating at 108.1. The NFL passer rating formula includes five variables: pass attempts, completions, passing yards, touchdown passes, and interceptions, with each variable scaled to various values. Contributing to his elite passing is his 1.1% turnover play rate (lowest in the NFL) and 79.7% Adjusted Completion Percentage (4th). Best of all, the Bengals are 2nd in Neutral Pass Rate at 62% on 1st & 2nd Downs. So not only has Burrow been one of the best passers in the league, but the coaches are emphasizing his abilities with a pass-heavy scheme. This has culminated in Joe Burrow currently slotting 4th amongst QBs at 24.6 PPG in 6-pt/passing TD leagues.

Jalen Hurts is continually the most underrated QB in dynasty football. Like Burrow, Hurts is also having a top-2 season of his career, but this is thanks to his work on the ground. Jalen is 1st amongst QBs with 8 rushing TDs and is tied for 4th with 40.3 rushing yards/game (min. 10 attempts). Jalen hasn’t been lacking through the air either. With an Adjusted Completion Percentage of 80.1%, he is 3rd in the league. ADJ% measures the percentage of aimed passes thrown on target and forgives passers of on-target drops by receivers. Since their bye week a month ago, the Eagles offense has been dynamic, the timing with receivers is impeccable, and Hurts has scored the most fantasy points at his position. Hurts offers all the upside of other Konami QBs, like Lamar, Jayden Daniels, and Josh Allen, but at a discount.

Flying far below the radar in 2024 is Justin Herbert. Primarily a running team through the first month of the season, Los Angeles was 31st in Neutral Pass Rate at 38%. Since their bye week, Harbaugh and the Chargers are now 4th in Neutral Pass Rate at 57%. The team is showcasing Herbert’s knack for Big Time Throws, who is currently 3rd at 6%. These passes have excellent ball location, timing, and are usually thrown further down the field or into a tighter window. In addition to his elite arm talent, The Herbinator has an 81.1 PFF Passing Grade (5th) and 8.43 Adjusted Yards Gained Per Pass Attempt (6th). Acquire Herbert now before the Chargers ascend to an elite status next season.

Works Cited

PFF
PlayerProfiler
ESPN
Pro Football Reference

NFL Week 9 Recap - Fantasy Usage Model by Hayden Winks
https://underdognetwork.com/football/analysis/nfl-week-9-recap-fantasy-usage-model

The Dossier

Image created by DK

Matty Kiwoom 11/7/24 Matty Kiwoom 11/7/24

WEEK 10 FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS: Return of the back

Enjoy it folks! Enjoy fantasy football while it is still here. Remember to not get too upset about loss and take in all the fun that fantasy football provides. Why am I getting sentimental? Well gang, we are already more than halfway through the fantasy season. We are staring down the barrel of Week 10 and whether we’re looking to win now (check out my buy/sell article and WIN NOW BUYS on YouTube) or getting ready for the future we all have big time decisions to make. My Week 10 rankings are OUT NOW so let me dive into some of the most important aspects of setting fantasy football lineups.

Veteran TEs on the Rise

Fantasy football is a flat circle. Last year was the rise of the next generation of productive tight ends, this year started off with everyone performing like busters. Now heading into Week 10, George Kittle, Travis Kelce, and Mark Andrews are all sitting in my top five. Kittle is the tight end outlier in WoRP this season and faces a soft matchup against the Bucs. Kelce has seen 28 targets and caught 24 of them over the last two weeks and Andrews has been on fire three of the last four weeks. On top of that, Evan Engram, Hunter Henry, and even Mike Gesicki have played their way into the top 10 for this week. Gesicki believes it or not has emerged as Joe Burrow’s number two option whenever Tee Higgins is out. The tight end landscape has been a roller coaster ride from the underworld but it seems like experience has risen to the top.

Dak’s Injury Trickle Down

Dak Prescott hurt his hamstring and it is looking like a multi-week injury. That sucks but what does that mean for Week 10? It is certainly a massive negative. Even though he has played relatively well with Cooper Rush in the past, CeeDee Lamb (who is also banged up) is outside of my top five for the first time all season. Jalen Tolbert who has been starting to look like a solid flex option has now been tanked in the ranks. Jake Ferguson is still inside my top 12 at tight end but that is really more a reflection of the position than it is an endorsement on his potential production. Rico Dowdle could end up seeing a bunch of check downs which is why he is still locked into the RB 2 range. The Cowboys have been so disappointing this season as a whole but Dak’s injury is just the disappointing cherry on a super disappointing sundae.

What’s the Deal With These Running Backs?

I hope you read the headline in Jerry Seinfeld’s voice. It reads so much funnier that way. The running back position has been a beacon of light in 2024. Half of the top 20 in WoRP are running backs. This week projects to continue to follow this season’s trend. Fantasy managers should feel comfortable starting all the backs from 1 to 30 in Week 10. Kareem Hunt, David Montgomery, Najee Harris, Chase Brown, Tony Pollard, and J.K. Dobbins are just a few players that have been awesome lately and none of them cracked the top 15. There are a lot of teams at the top of their fantasy league that are starting one or maybe even two running backs in their flex spots. This week, just like this season, is packed with productive running backs.

Check out the entire Week 10 positional ranks on South Harmon dot com to help make even the toughest of lineup and replacement decisions.

Matty Kiwoom 11/6/24 Matty Kiwoom 11/6/24

FANTASY FOOTBALL TRADE ADVICE: WEEK 10 BUY & SELL

The calendar turns to November and that means that the fantasy football season is more than halfway through. Teams are gearing up for the postseason, some are turning their sights to 2025 and beyond, and then there are the teams that are fighting and clawing their way into the playoffs. These are the dawg days of fantasy football and one of the most important times of the season. This week I’ll dive into one running back to buy and one running back to sell. The focus is for the managers who are pushing the pedal to the metal to win games in the short term.

Buy

Kenneth Walker III

It has been back to back weeks where Kenneth Walker III has failed to be a top 15 running back and now the Seahawks head into their bye week. This is the perfect time for fantasy managers to swoop in and land a difference maker at running back. After the bye Seattle plays the Niners, Cardinals and Jets and all three of those matchups are advantageous for opposing backs. The Hawks have the second easiest schedule over the next month for running backs. The matchups are one thing but Walker is also playing really well. Even with the recent down games, Walker is still a top 12 overall player according to WoRP. He’s been creative, he’s been elusive, he’s been dominant but most importantly, Walker has been a weapon in the Ryan Grubbs’s passing attack. He is top eight amongst tail backs in route participation, targets, and receptions. There are moments throughout the fantasy season where managers can make a trade that changes the course of history. This is that moment.

Who to trade away

Due to the bye and lackluster performances, Walker can be acquired for a price that will shock some fantasy managers. There have been league markets that suggest you may be able to move a hurt wide receiver for the Seahawks back. Anyone who rosters Brandon Aiyuk among others should be more than happy to ship that injured player for Walker. There have also been market indicators that display trades involving a playoff 2025 first or a 2025 second plus a running back prospect like Blake Corum or Trey Benson have been enough to acquire Walker. The player is awesome, the schedule is juicy and the price tag is reasonable…go BUY KENNETH WALKER!

Sell

Chase Brown

Zigging while most leagues are zagging is the most basic way to leverage certain situations. Chase Brown szn is here and he is coming off of a massive Week 9 game where he finished as a top five running back. So why should you sell when the fantasy world is singing his praises? Well…for that exact reason. While everyone is looking to add Brown to their team, take advantage of everyone’s excitement and maximize a return. I won’t lie, Chase Brown is checking most boxes. He has been climbing the WoRP charts and his analytical profile is solid. It appears he is ready to take off. BUT…over the next month Brown has the worst matchups for running backs. It all starts with the divisional Ravens who present the toughest matchup for backs followed up by the Chargers, a bye week, and the Steelers. A player like Brown will not hold value through a month of disappointing performances. Sell now while he is nearing his peak value.

Who to trade for

There are two pretty clear paths to moving Brown at peak value. He can be moved right now for good draft picks in dynasty, he can be used to buy into a running back with a better short term schedule like Keneth Walker, he can also be flipped for a struggling wide receiver with crazy upside in seasonal leagues. Brown plus what secondary piece will land a guy like Tyreek Hill or Marvin Harrison Jr. Trade markets are hot right now for Brown and managers who need wins now might think it is bad process to sell high if they need wins but given the schedule and the acquisition of Khalil Herbert, the move is to pivot from Chase Brown.

The fantasy world is through Week 9 and the season is more than halfway over. Now is the time to make moves. Now is the time to swing for the fences. Now is the time to set the fantasy team up to win in 2024 or gear up for a future championship run. Stay trading my friends…

T-Rock 11/5/24 T-Rock 11/5/24

Week 10 Waiver Targets

Waiver Targets

ReDraft (most of these players will be rostered in Dynasty leagues)

Quentin Johnston - 27% rostership, spend 18-20% FAAB (Johnston explodes for 4/5 for 118 yds, 1 TD in his return from an ankle injury. When healthy, Johnston and Ladd McConkey will trade weeks for the most productive Chargers WR, but QJ is a priority add with LA becoming a pass-happy team post-bye.)
Mike Gesicki - 20% rostership, spend 15-18% FAAB (Gesicki had the 2nd-best game by a TE this season, going 5/6 for 100 yds, 2 TDs. It was the best fantasy game of his entire career. Gesicki is a must-own and a must-start anytime Tee Higgins is not playing. He is a volatile play with Tee in the lineup.)
Khalil Herbert - 9% rostership, 10-12% FAAB (Ignored and forgotten like a donation box for Goodwill, the talented RB finds a new home in Cincy. We believe his low utilization has much more to do with the bad scheme of the Bears’ coaching, and much less to do with the ability of Herbert. With Zach Moss out indefinitely with a neck injury, and so few quality RBs available on waivers, Khalil could prove to be a sneaky upside add ahead of the playoffs.)
Trey Benson - 23% rostership, spend 10-12% FAAB (James Conner is the clear workhorse of the Cardinals backfield, but he has also missed 4 games each of the last 2 seasons. If Conner goes down with an injury, it will pave the way for Benson and Emari Demercado to find opportunities. The offense hasn’t clicked yet for Benson, but we expect Arizona to prioritize the run game given Kyler Murray’s ceiling as a passer.)
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine - 2% rostership, 3-5% FAAB (Nick has been a top-36 WR the last 3 weeks of the season, including +92% snap share the last two weeks since DHop was traded. Nick’s production could completely change if the Titans return to Levis, so don’t get carried away with the FAAB bid.)

Dynasty

Trey Lance - 32% rostership, 10-12% FAAB in Best Ball (Dak Prescott is on IR while recovering from both a hamstring and hand injury. Cooper Rush takes over as the starter, but with how underwhelming Dak has been we don’t expect Cooper to do much on the piss-poor Cowboys. With his unique rushing upside, we hope to see Trey Lance get an opportunity.)

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