T-Rock 4/23/25 T-Rock 4/23/25

The 2025 Class: Pre-Draft

The Rookie Draft isn’t merely an event - it’s a way of life. It doesn’t matter if you’re a player, a scout, a GM, or a fan; the NFL Draft is meaningful to a wide range of people. Seeing where a player lands and how franchises can be transformed overnight make the event a real-life drama. Similar to Martial Arts, there are many disciplines involved in evaluating prospects. Some subscribe to an analytical school of thought, while others prefer watching film. Regardless of your philosophy, it’s undeniable that scouting rookies can become quite combative throughout the football world. The months leading up to the NFL Draft are a blood sport, where only the fearless survive the brutality of the process. Without proper training, your work can get its ass kicked and tossed out of the dojo. We will begin this journey by looking back at 2024.

Part I - Enter The Rookies

Empty Your Mind, Be Formless, Shapeless Like Water. Now Water Can Flow, Or It Can Crash. Be Water, My Friend.

Bruce Lee

The Rookie Draft isn’t merely an event - it’s a way of life. It doesn’t matter if you’re a player, a scout, a GM, or a fan; the NFL Draft is meaningful to a wide range of people. Seeing where a player lands and how franchises can be transformed overnight makes the event a real-life drama. Similar to Martial Arts, there are many disciplines involved in evaluating prospects. Some subscribe to an analytical school of thought, while others prefer watching film. Regardless of your philosophy, it’s undeniable that scouting rookies can become quite combative throughout the football world. The months leading up to the NFL Draft are a blood sport, where only the fearless survive the brutality of the process. Without proper training, your work can get its ass kicked and tossed out of the dojo. We will begin this journey by looking back at 2024.

Lessons Learned From 2024

Last year, I wrote a five-part Rookie Series detailing historical hit rates, value insulation, and my thoughts on the 2024 Class. A key takeaway from my hit rate article, Dynasty Blues, advocated for “having picks at both bookends of the first round.” Players like Jayden Daniels and Malik Nabers smashed as consensus 1.03 and 1.04 picks. However, some of the biggest hits came at the end of the first round with Brian Thomas Jr. at 1.10, Ladd McConkey at 1.12, and Bo Nix at 2.01. This trend should continue in 2025.

I was higher on Xavier Legette, Ricky Persall, Ray Davis, Audric Estime, Adonai Mitchell, Blake Corum, Ben Sinnott, and Theo Johnson than the consensus ADP. Seeing both Xavier and Pearsall drafted in the 1st Round of the NFL Draft was pure joy. For various reasons, neither player had the greatest rookie season, but I remain hopeful for their young careers. Ray Davis played well in his first campaign with the Bills and was arguably the third-best rookie RB after Bucky Irving and Tyrone Tracy.

But as great as it is to get lucky with a few picks, the misses are the greatest learning opportunity. Audric Estime scored highly in my process, but lacked the speed to break out in year one. Adonai Mitchell’s first year as a Colt was hell. At only 35% Snap Share, he saw the field less than players like Zay Jones, Ryan Miller, Tyler Johnson, Robert Woods, and Jalen Brooks. Instead, Alec Pierce (80% snaps) got most of the run in Indy, given his connection with Anthony Richardson on deep passes (the only throw ARich could make). Despite Sean McVay's love for Blake Corum throughout the draft process, Blake couldn’t siphon any touches away from the ultra-productive Kyren Williams. Ben Sinnott was my biggest miss, seeing the field on only 27% of snaps, and watching Zach Ertz turn in a great season with Jayden Daniels. I am anxious to see if Sinnott receives a bigger opportunity as he acclimates to playing TE in the NFL. Overall, it's pivotal to remember that the situation is everything for the non-elite prospects.

The Philosophy, The Fight, The Wisdom

In the past, I have described the cornerstones of my Rookie Scouting Process as Production, Athletic Testing, Draft Capital, and Landing Spot. These pillars can be summed up as my Philosophy for rookies. Next Gen Stats, including their Athleticism, Production, and Draft Score for each prospect, was the biggest addition to my analytical philosophy. But what good is a philosophy if it can’t be used in the real world? What good is the knowledge of Martial Arts if it can’t be used in a Fight?! My original process lacked film evaluation, and I had insufficient context for these players in action. I needed to see how these prospects fought on the football field! Setting aside 30 minutes for each rookie and multiple hours for the top prospects, I gave each player a film grade based on what NFL Scouts use to evaluate prospects. Analytics tell the truth about a prospect, but the film never lies. The final facet of my scouting was incorporating the Wisdom of other analysts in the space. The rankings and breakdowns from Matt Harmon, Steve Smith Sr., Hayden Winks, and JT O’Sullivan are invaluable because they can articulate what hardly anyone else can. With how often we get the rookie process wrong, having the humility to learn from others and dedicating yourself to knowledge is the only way to grow.

The 2025 Class

The 2025 class is special. Cam Ward is one of the best QB prospects in the past five years, Ashton Jeanty is a generational prospect, and Travis Hunter is a once-in-a-lifetime player. The 2025 Running Back group is amazing, and the Tight End class is fantastic. But outside of these solidified prospects, there are plenty of interesting rookies my process has highlighted that I wish to feature.

Travis Hunter

I feel foolish to mention Travis Hunter as an “underrated” prospect, but as the 6th highest ranked rookie on KTC, and seeing him fall to the 1.07 in a recent rookie draft, I’m obligated to include him. Here is a short list of why Travis Hunter needs to be drafted higher in your Rookie and Startup Drafts:

He was a 5-Star (1st Overall) Recruit.
On two separate occasions, Hunter recorded the fastest speed of the week in college football.
He averaged a 95% success rate (Man, Zone, Press) according to Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception.
His prowess as an elite CB prospect feeds into his mastery of the WR position.
He beat out Ashton Jeanty to win the Heisman Trophy.

Ashton Jeanty could be better than Bijan Robinson and Saquon Barkley (I think he will be). But in today’s dynasty, they still barely crack the end of the First Round in Startups. I fully expect Jeanty to outscore Hunter in their first year of fantasy. But from a value perspective, I believe that by this time next year, Travis Hunter will challenge the likes of CeeDee Lamb and Malik Nabers as the #3 WR in Dynasty. WoRP will dictate which prospect to target, but both players should be ranked at the top of your rookie drafts because they have abilities no one else does. Draft the generational prospects first.

Jaxon Dart

Ranking Jaxon Dart as a top two QB prospect isn’t as controversial today as it was two months ago at the beginning of the offseason. But it’s still worth mentioning that no other QB in this class can push the ball down the field (ADOT - 12.3 yds, Adjusted Yards/Att - 11.53 yds) AND rush (38.1 YPG) like Dart. Additionally, he ranks the highest in Passer Rating (180.7), Big Time Throw Percentage (6.5%), and PFF Passing Grade (91.4).

With all this said, I still believe Jaxon Dart would benefit from sitting and developing as he transitions from a college to a pro-style system. JT O’Sullivan ranking Dart as his 5th best QB is concerning, but analysts like O’Sullivan can be particularly critical, considering they were once former players and understand the high demands of the NFL. Regardless, it is easy to question Dart being more of a product of his environment than I originally thought, making his landing spot all the more critical.

Jalen Milroe

There is no other prospect I’ve changed my tune on more than Jalen Milroe. An inaccurate QB with exceptional athleticism is a movie we have all seen before with Anthony Richardson… or so I thought. When comparing Milroe to Richardson, neither shines in the passing category, but the Alabama QB outscores the Florida Gator in PPG (26.8 vs. 22.61), QBR (82.8 vs. 70.6), Adj. Yds/Att (8.37 vs. 7.36), and Comp% % (64.9% vs. 53.8%). The case for Jalen being a mid-1st-round pick in rookie drafts relies entirely on his rushing upside. Averaging 55.8 rushing yards per game, 20 TDs, and a 4.37 40-time at his Pro Day is bonkers for a QB. Milroe’s long-term success will depend upon his development as a passer. But with the most valuable players in dynasty being rushing quarterbacks, Jalen’s massive upside is worth the gamble.

Cam Skattebo

As a competitor and underdog, Cam Skattebo is my favorite player in the entire draft. Seeking mayhem and destruction, Skattebo uses his ideal size to seek out contact and punish defenders on nearly every play. His contact balance, physicality, change of direction, and elusiveness all rank in the top tier of the class. From a production standpoint, the only prospect to rival Skattebo is generational talent Ashton Jeanty. He is the first Power Conference player to record 1,500+ rush yds and 500+ rec yds since Christian McCaffrey in 2015, placing him in the same tier as TreVeyon Henderson as the best dual-threat RB in the class. Ball security and pass-protection are the most glaring weaknesses in his game, and his lack of top-end speed caps his ceiling. But despite these deficiencies, I trust the dominance the Sun-Devil exhibited on film and fully expect him to rip and tear his way through the league.

Remember Your Training

Before your next Rookie Draft:

Trust what you saw on film.
Find the prospect with that ONE ability that none of his peers have.
Prioritize the organizations that develop and utilize their talent the best.
Listen to what coaches and GMs say about players during draft conferences and their vision for the player.
When the stakes are high, do not challenge the ADP and the opinion of NFL teams. Be willing to go out on a limb when the risk is low.

One With Your Process

There are no rules to scouting, as there are no rules to fighting. All your energy is required in combat, and every part of your being needs to be trained. With every person being unique in their body, mind, and spirit, not every person attacks a problem the same way. The beauty of scouting is how differently everyone views the same players. Ultimately, your process and outlook say as much about you as it does about the prospects. It’s self-expression at its finest. It is difficult to be true to yourself because it requires natural instinct and control to be in harmony. Many put on a show and mistake knowledge with cockiness. Others build their entire system on fancy metrics. But there’s nothing greater than training yourself to the point that your process becomes so ingrained within you that it develops into a reflex. It takes practice to operate without hesitation. It takes unlearning what you have previously learned. We are in a rich period of football history, filled with growth. I applaud anyone willing to exercise their scouting minds because under the sun, we’re all fans of the game.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ER5Z_MyUkJQ

Please be sure to check out 2024’s Rookie Series!

https://www.southharmonff.com/articles/category/The+Rookie+Series+-+2024

The Dossier

Image created by DK