Playoff Odds & Strategy
The overwhelming sentiment during the playoffs is to leave no stone unturned when chasing a Championship. Move heaven and earth if you must, but do not finish the season with regret wondering, “Could I have done more?” But how often do you go “All-In,” mortgaging your entire future by trading away valuable picks and players, only to be bounced early in the playoffs? These trades inevitably define your roster for the next few seasons and with no draft capital they can be almost impossible to dig out of.
Part I - Standings & Points
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Three Questions
The overwhelming sentiment during the playoffs is to leave no stone unturned when chasing a Championship. Move heaven and earth if you must, but do not finish the season with regret wondering, “Could I have done more?” But how often do you go all-in, mortgaging your future by trading away valuable picks and players, only to be bounced early in the playoffs? These trades inevitably define your roster for the next few seasons and with no draft capital they can be almost impossible to dig out of.
Trades are only a piece of the jumbled puzzle. I used to believe having the highest-scoring team mattered more in the playoffs than a top seed. But with so much variance, injuries, and teams getting hot at the right time, I now have doubts.
The purpose of this research is to gain a better understanding of three major components of the Fantasy Playoffs:
Is there a strong correlation between Playoff Seeding and where a team Finishes?
Does Seeding matter more than Regular Season scoring?
How often do Playoff Trades make an impact?
Many dynasty players may take issue with this research, saying “Hindsight is 20/20,” “Don’t play the odds because you never know,” “Leave nothing to chance,” and “You can’t predict the future based on the past.” And all these managers would be right. But none of these managers have to suffer through fixing my roster if I sell out to win and lose. Every decision in life can be boiled down to a cost/benefit analysis. We can make better decisions if we understand our odds and what we stand to lose.
The data for this research comes from 25 seasons of dynasty playoffs, including 12 playoffs from Lineup leagues and 13 from Best Ball leagues. Every league has 12 teams, and 4/12 Lineup seasons come from a one-QB league.
Note - You may notice that the Odds do not always add up to 100% in the Points For sample as they do with the Seeds. That is because there are multiple occasions where the Top-6 scoring teams did not make the playoffs, and thus did not have a Top-6 Finish.
1st
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As expected, the 1st Seed has the highest average finish for both Lineup and Best Ball leagues at 2.17 and 1.92 respectively. Other major takeaways include:
1st Seeds finished Top-2 in lineup leagues 75% of the time in the sample.
But only 25% of these teams finished 1st in Lineup.
The 46.15% 1st Place Finish is the second highest odds in Best Ball leagues.
The only other more likely outcome was the 53.85% odds 6th Seed teams have for finishing in 6th Place.
In terms of Points For, the 41.67% odds of the Highest Scoring team finishing 2nd is the highest in the Points For sample.
The Highest Scoring team was just as likely to finish 2nd as they were 1st Place in Best Ball.
In Lineup leagues, both the #1 & #2 Scoring teams have a 3.08 average finish.
2nd
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The 2nd Seed had a better finish for both Lineup and Best Ball leagues at 2.83 and 2.69 respectively compared to the 2nd Highest Scoring team, which on average finished at 3.08 and 3.23 in Lineup and Best Ball leagues. Other major takeaways include:
2nd Seed teams finished 4th at a whopping 41.67% in Lineup leagues and 3rd place in Best Ball at 38.46%
Overall, Seeding matters more than Scoring for the #2 teams
The #2 Scoring teams have a wide range of outcomes and are comparable to teams that are 3rd in Points For
3rd
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Third-place teams are the Evil Twin (exact opposite) of Second-place teams - the 3rd Highest Scoring Teams finished better on average at 2.91 compared to the 3rd Seed teams, which finished on average at 3.35. Other major takeaways include:
The 3rd Highest Scoring team surprisingly finished better than the 2nd Highest in Lineup leagues and Best Ball.
Both 3rd Seeds & Points For have the highest odds of securing a Championship in the entire sample, at 33.33%
With rosters that are often comparable to the Top 2 teams, their path to a Championship includes an easy 6th Seed matchup and coin-flip 2nd Seed match. Once in the Final Round, anything can happen.
4th
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We see the first major dropoff in both Seeding and Scoring when it comes to the Fourth Placed Teams. The 4th Seed teams finished at 4.18 compared to the 4th Highest Scoring teams, which finished on average at 4.8. Other major takeaways include:
Regardless of Seeding or Scoring, the 4th Place team finished in the bottom half of the playoffs 72% of the time, not great.
5th
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On average, 5th Placed teams performed better in the playoffs compared to 4th Place, with an average finish of 4.05 for 5th Seeds and 3.88 finish for the 5th Highest Scorers. Other major takeaways include:
5th Seed teams are doomed for a bottom-half finish in Best Ball leagues with an astounding 92.31% odds of ending the season in 4th-6th place
6th
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Finally, the 6th Seed teams faired better in the playoffs with an average finish of 4.61 compared to the 6th Highest Scoring team, who finished at 5.21 on average. Other major takeaways include:
6th Seed teams in Best Ball leagues finish 6th Place 53.85% of the time, the highest odds in the entire sample of research.
The 6th Best Teams have it brutal in Lineup leagues.
No 6th Seed ever brought home a championship in Lineup.
The 6th Highest Scoring teams never made it to the Final Round
Main Takeaways
The Top 2 Seeds and Highest Scoring Teams are the most predictable and have the highest odds of finishing in the Top 2
Having a bye-week is so critical
3rd Place teams are very dangerous in lineup leagues
Variance may have kept them from securing a bye-week in the regular season, but these are typically strongly constructed teams with one of the easiest roads to a Chip.
Not much differentiates 4th-6th Seeded Teams as far as odds in the playoffs
However, there is much more variance when comparing the 4th-6th Highest scoring teams
Outside of the #1 Team, the 6th Seed & Points For team is the most predictable, finishing 5th or 6th 52-68% of the time
Playoff Trades
Come back for Part II.
Conclusion
When I have the #1 Seed or the highest-scoring team, I feel entitled to a Championship! Experience, research, and sound strategy can take your team far in the regular season. But in the playoffs, variance can be a heartless bitch. Similarly, humans know how to build a space shuttle that can launch off the ground and into the Earth’s atmosphere. However, with the unpredictable nature of space travel, unforeseen events and Murphy’s Law can quickly take over. The fantasy playoffs are Murphy’s Law at its finest.
I’ve had Juggernauts go down in their first game after a bye and I’ve had tanking teams barely make the playoffs and run the gauntlet for a title (because I’m bad at losing). Our pursuit of improvement as fantasy players shouldn’t be defined purely by winning. If it is, you’re in for a lot of heartache. Instead, our pursuit should be a better understanding of the game and an openness to its possibilities.
Murphy's law doesn't mean that something bad will happen. It means that whatever *can* happen, will happen
Cooper - Interstellar
The Dossier
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