The Rookie Draft

Part IV - Rookie Wisdom

Will this be the year I draft the next Jayden Daniels, or will I continue to struggle in mediocrity? No other event quite compares to the buildup and stakes of the Rookie Draft. Many of my greatest fantasy football lessons have been tested and refined in the crucible of the rookie process. In the final installment of the Attacking The Draft series, this article will cover the wisdom and strategy for the Rookie Draft.  Thank you to Mike Liu, Peter Howard, Jax Falcone, Jakob Sanderson, Scott Conner, Adam McFerran, Mike Chrystal, and many others for their knowledge and for making this article possible.

Key Stats To Remember

Since 2013, on average, 2 QBs, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, & 2 TEs selected in the first 3 rounds of the NFL Draft have gone on to have at least 1 Top-12 fantasy season (during their career) per rookie class. In 2024, we had 2 QBs, 2 WRs, and 1 TE already accomplish this feat in their first season. We will likely have more players from the 2024 class break into the Top-12 in the coming seasons.

In 2023, 17 rookies broke into the top 156 best WoRP players (10.9%).

In 2024, 14 rookies made the top 156 WoRP players (9%). 

(Lineup, SF, Start 10, 1 Pt TEP)

First Round Picks

Picks are extremely valuable. Either you want to field the best team in the league, OR you want to have the most picks! If you do not have the best team, aim to have three to four 1st round picks to control the draft. When you have this many first-rounders, other managers will come to you first for trades. This gives you the flexibility to trade away a pick for more future picks, trade away a pick for a veteran player, or use it to draft a rookie. If you are wondering, how do I get my hands on so many 1sts? It begins with trading back in the Startup, and actively tanking the first two to three seasons of your dynasty league.

Hogging All The Picks

It can become difficult to trade if you control eight to nine first-round rookie picks in a class. What often transpires is that the other managers with no teeth in the Rookie Draft have no future picks to offer you in a package, and their veteran players are either too expensive or too old to trade for. It gives you trade flexibility if you allow other people at the table with picks AND players they can trade. Having five to six firsts in one class is the best spot for a rebuilding team. If you love rookies to the point that you don’t care about hit rates, value loss, or trading, you can have as many First-Round picks as you want. 

Do not become enamored with trying to build a super team during a rebuild, where you are flush with draft picks and go on a buying spree for older assets. The worst thing you can do is make a godfather deal and sink multiple valuable assets into one elite player, especially a WR (position isn’t scarce).

Contenders

If you're a contender with late picks in the rookie draft and doubt the prospects available to you, I would not recommend trading for veterans as your first option. Instead, during or right before the rookie draft, trade those picks away for a larger package of future picks. It’s a lot harder to know which veterans to trade for during the off-season than after the season starts, so make it easier on yourself and opt for future picks. 

If you are a contender with draft picks and there's only one other contender with picks as well, trade away some of your veterans for their picks and corner the market as the only contender with picks. Tanking teams will not be able to force you into a bidding war if you are the only manager able to offer them picks for their players. 

One Season Away From Contention

If you are one season away from competing (and have the depth), aim to have at least two 1sts going into your upcoming rookie draft and two 1sts for next season. Having multiple firsts to spend on young talent and trade away can be the deciding factor when making a championship run. 

Popularity Contest

If you are unsure which player to select, choose the player the community likes more. Managers pay extra for these players. A good player in a difficult situation can be analytically superior, but they will be harder to trade if the community doesn't love them.

Timing

Do not flip your picks in the upcoming draft too early. After the NFL Draft is completed, you will have a better idea of the pick and its value. 

If you ever trade away a pick for a player, you must be content with the investment in the player for that year and the following year. Do not trade away valuable picks for players with limited liquidity or whose days are numbered in the NFL.

Liquidity vs. Construction

With rookie picks being highly liquid (can trade them easily) and value-insulated, it can be tempting to go overboard with acquiring as much draft capital as possible. Trading away too much reliable veteran production for picks spent on rookies can be risky (considering their hit rate). While pursuing youth, these managers can easily wind up with a team half the roster size of their league-mates and be years from competing. The best rosters boast the best players and depth in their league. 

If your team is multiple years away from competing, remember that RBs have the shortest shelf life in the league, followed by WRs and TEs. Be willing to trade away any skill-position player at a slight discount if it yields multiple pieces in compensation and more shots to turn your fortunes around.  

How to Utilize Picks

Target the worst and most desperate managers in your league by offering them your later picks for their future picks. Bet that their future pick will be better than your current late pick. Convert two 2nd-round picks into one 1st-round pick next year. Trade back from a mid-1st to a late-1st plus a 2nd. For contending teams, these future picks will act as an emergency savings in case you need to find a replacement for a mid-season injury.  

If you can’t manage to trade your draft picks for future ones, then use them to select rookies. For the prospects that hit, the rookie draft will be their cheapest cost of acquisition. 

Do not trade away high draft capital for a veteran unless you love that player to death.

If you are going to make a trade, make sure to consult Startup ADP. It is critical to receive the proper compensation based on startup value!

Hierarchy of Positions

Generational Talents

Prospects with historic analytics and play at a level that you have never seen before are the highest priority, regardless of the position they play.

Quarterback

The young elite QB is the most valuable position in SuperFlex dynasty leagues. A highly regarded prospect will maintain their value for a full year, even if they fall short of expectations during their rookie campaign. Their value insulation is the best of all positions because of their production ceiling and the scarcity of the position. Only in the event of a historically bad season will a rookie QB lose significant dynasty value.

Wide Receiver

In 2024, running backs were king because of their production. But for better or worse, wide receivers are still being selected higher in dynasty startups. This is mainly due to their perceived longevity and spike weeks in production. For years, the NFL has been a passing league, elevating the WR position to new heights. With so little consistency at the position, the elite wide receivers are second only to the elite QBs. 

Running Back

With a historic 2024 rushing season and a generational class in 2025, the NFL and fantasy could be in the midst of an RB renaissance.  The elite rushers are consistent and produce at a high level well into their second and sometimes third contract. The best RBs have versatility as pass-catching weapons and the toughness to punch in TDs on the goal line. Best of all, RBs have the highest likelihood of a Breakout year (Top 12-24 RB) during their rookie season of all positions and have a much higher hit rate compared to QBs and WRs. 

Tight End

In Tight End Premium leagues with 0.75-1 point premiums in scoring, or Start 2 TEs Leagues, prospects can be confidently drafted if they boast elite athleticism and high NFL Draft capital. Tight Ends own the highest hit rate in the first and second rounds of rookie drafts amongst all positions. But unless all of these conditions can be met, it's preferable to prioritize the other positions in the first and second rounds and target TEs in the later parts of your draft.   

Very Important Caveat

The hierarchy can change based on the most talented group of an incoming rookie class. Always prioritize the strength of a class. The NFL is brutal, where only the best survive in the league and dynasty. If you draft a quarterback or wide receiver that doesn’t pan out, it doesn’t matter how important their position is if their value eventually goes to zero. Draft the very best, regardless of their position.

Rookie Team Situations

A lot can go wrong with rookies. No matter how talented a player is, their teammates, coaches, and organization dictate A LOT of how productive they will be.

QB 

A quarterback is affected by their environment more than any other position. This is especially true of Pocket-Passers, who need a strong offensive line for protection and an arsenal of playmakers to distribute the ball. For this reason, the Konami-Code QB that can run and pass is the most valuable player in dynasty. The mental acumen required to compete in the NFL is immense, and the jump in competition level from college is massive. Stay away from prospects that go to dysfunctional situations.

RB

Rookie RBs eviscerate the value of their veteran teammates if they are more talented. However, if those vets endear themselves to the coaches with certain skills the younger backs don't have, the seasoned player will stick around and eat into the opportunities. 

WR

The WR position differs from RBs in that a veteran can coexist with a talented rookie without too much effect on production. With the high passing volume in the NFL, and teams operating with multiple WR sets on most plays, multiple WRs can eat on an offense. Don’t waste picks on WRs ranked outside the top 8-10.

TE

Outside of the TEs taken in the First Round of the NFL Draft, it is unlikely for a rookie TE to start and produce in year 1. Drafting a TE ranked outside of the top 2 is a wait-and-see game.

The Dossier

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