Week 15 Dossier

Fantasy Pruning - Preparing Your Off-Season Roster

Red Herring

There are various schools of thought on how to run a roster. Some have enough resources that can be deployed to overwhelm their competitors. Others rely on skillful manipulation to gain the upper hand. Regardless of how you achieve your goal, it cannot be argued that mission success can only be achieved through efficiently managing your assets. In our line of work, we carefully plan for the scenarios that may arise, but we do not waste valuable resources chasing the ‘what-ifs?’ Countless agents meet their doom because they were unable to make the cold and calculated decisions of what was best for the mission. They became too attached, always believing that every single asset was the key. In a game that relies upon quick reflexes, it is essential to understand the difference between an asset and a liability. The following principles can be applied in your startup drafts and throughout the regular season, but given the time of year, there will be an emphasis on how to best manage your rosters heading into the off-season. With this training, you won’t hesitate to pull the trigger.

Roster Construction - The Golden Rule of proper roster management is optimizing your Roster Construction. The general idea is that your league’s unique roster and scoring settings should inform which positions to prioritize and how many at each position to carry on your roster. Understanding your league settings, weighing the pros & risks of each position, and knowing the market are all considerations for optimized roster construction. But the following is a good place to begin:

The first step is to utilize Dr. Koopa’s WoRP Calculated Optimal Roster Construction tool through the WoRP Calculator. With the “Roster Efficiency” being set to “High,” click the “Adjusted Roster Construction” icon if your league is Lineup or the “True Roster Construction” icon if your league is Best Ball. Finally, engage WoRP by clicking “Calculate WoRP.”

The number of players at each position in the optimal roster construction should add up to the total number of starting and bench spots your roster allows. The “Droppable” position is what it describes: it’s the number of players whose WoRP production can typically be replaced through the waiver wire/free agency. But what do you do with recommendations that are in decimal points? 

If you simply round up any position that is above .5 or round down any position that is below .5, you will inevitably have too many or extra roster spots to play with. If you want to apply the same percentage of players for your droppable as you have at every position, then you can simply use the following formula:

The Optimal Position # divided by The Total # of Roster Spots = The Position % multiplied by The Optimal Droppable # = The Remaining Roster Slots for Each Position

4.08 / 35 = 0.12 x 5.33 = .64 QBs
7.17 / 35 = 0.20 x 5.33 = 1.07 RBs
6.17 / 35 = 0.18 x 5.33 = 0.96 TEs
12.25 / 35 = 0.35 x 5.33 = 1.87 WRs

The number of Droppable players is typically negligible, so the above formula is completely optional, especially if your roster is not competing. The most important aspect to consider when optimizing a roster is viewing the WoRP Roster Construction Tool as a guideline rather than a strict doctrine. The strength you have at each position and your league markets will have the biggest influence on your roster construction in addition to your league’s scoring settings. With this in mind, let us explore some various scenarios to fill in the gaps.

QB - Last year in 2022, a record 64 different starting QBs played in the regular season. As of December 11th, 2023, there have been 55 different starting QBs this season. What many perceive as a ‘Dark Time’ when it comes to the most important position for SF leagues, the Agency instead sees opportunity. 

Using the above Roster Construction as an example, it is advised to roster five QBs if one of the Droppable players is to be considered a QB. Either during your startup draft or at some point before the season begins, three of these five QBs should have job security and upside for the following reasons: 

• An early season injury will not completely derail your team if you have an extra QB that can be played.

• There is yearly volatility in production where only 60% of the top 12 QBs from the year prior repeat as a top 12 finisher the following year (only 69.17% repeat as top 24 QBs).

• Taking three starting QBs will force a league competitor to play with only two QBs.

Rostering three difference-making QBs in an SF league is the MINIMUM recommendation. In the world our agents operate in, the boundary on QBs has moved. 

Top-tier operators who win championships have as many as five to six starting QBs that they use to completely overwhelm their competition. To achieve this status, our agents must push the envelope in acquiring mid to lower-tier QBs during the season, especially after a season-ending injury occurs to a starting QB. Using WoRP to know which players to target and the principle of Pick Restraint (holding your 3rd-rd pick until 1/4 into the szn, 2nd-rd pick halfway into szn, 1st-rd pick 3/4 into szn), many league-winning QBs can be acquired under the 1st-rd pick price tag and for as little as a 3rd-rd pick. These players are cheap because they do not carry long-term dynasty stability, but “long-term” thinking is exploitable when championships are on the line. But what if you want to acquire these players for even cheaper?

Contrary to popular belief in not rostering ‘zeroes’ (backup players who are nearly guaranteed to score zero points due to the lack of playing time), there are certain backup QBs who are worth targeting. The following criteria will help you identify these potential difference-makers BEFORE they start and their prices shoot up:

• They must be a backup (do not waste valuable roster slots on 3rd-string QBs until injuries shake up the depth chart)

• They have prior starting experience in which they produced adequately as a starter (Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco, Gardner Minshew, etc.)

• If none of these experienced veterans are available, turn your focus to backup QBs who:

  • Are on high-powered offenses, or

  • Excelled in the Pre-Season, or

  • Playing behind older/under-performing QBs who can be potentially benched
    

When 64 different QBs start during the season, it is no longer irresponsible to roster two to three of these types of players given the importance of the position, the attrition we have seen over the last two seasons, and their instant production/trade value should they see an opportunity. With all of these things in consideration, agents should head into the offseason prioritizing backup QBs who are under contract in 2024 to fill any open roster slots. If not for these reasons, one may take this approach to roster construction simply by default because of the volatility of the other positions, which we will explore now.

WR/RB - Heading into this season, it was the general operating procedure to prioritize WRs in best ball leagues. Their high upside and propensity for explosive plays being captured into your starting lineups is what makes the position so perfect for the best ball format.  However, after a certain range of WRs, their volatility makes them a liability in lineup leagues compared to RBs. In Lineup leagues, it is paramount to have clarity on the usage of your players. For this reason, it is often better to roster a backup RB over a team’s 2nd/3rd best WR in lineup because you’ll have no way of knowing when to start the WR (even an injury ahead of them in the depth chart doesn’t guarantee touches). A starting RB on the other hand has a far higher likelihood of guaranteed touches and scoring on goal-line opportunities compared to a WR. Whether it is an unfair opinion or not, the RB position has been devalued given their fragility and the lack of production drop-off between a starting RB and their backup. Given the probability that many starting RBs during the season may miss multiple games during the season, it is the Agency’s stance to roster talented backup RBs who can be confidently deployed should the starter miss time over a 2nd/3rd WR whose start in a lineup league is far more a shot in the dark.

Stick to the following parameters of roster construction when you’re close to starting the regular season or are in the middle of it:

• It should go without saying that only talented players should be rostered; a terrible backup will likely be leap-frogged by a more talented 3rd-string player or an incoming free agent

• Prioritize backup RBs that will get touches or offer a different skill set than the starter; surprising split shares can develop throughout a season

• WRs that see less than 20-30% of the snaps are likely cut candidates 

• Veteran RBs at the bottom of your league-mates roster are amongst the easiest assets to trade for and can often be ‘throw-ins’ on bigger deals. 

The balancing act of rostering a competitive squad with RBs & WRs and being liquid/flexible with picks completely changes heading into the offseason. If you are out of contention and you are still able to trade, there is one simple question to consider: “Would my league mates rather have my players or do they value their picks more? Will my competitors actively seek to acquire my players during draft season?” If your league values the pick more than the player, it may be a strong indicator to move the player off your roster via trade or cut. Any RB/WR outside the top six of dynasty rankings should be considered a candidate for trade heading into an off-season.

There are far too many unknowns heading into an offseason regarding most playmakers ranked outside the top 50 at their position and many inside the top 50 as well. For this reason, be willing to trade any of them for picks, including at a discounted price. This principle applies to contenders once the season has concluded. The time to reconsider these veteran players and depth pieces isn’t until late in the pre-season when the first depth charts are announced. Until then, prioritize picks and capitalize on rookie hype heading into and throughout the off-season. 

TE - We’ll make this short and sweet, but listen carefully because this may save your fantasy season one day: cut any TE that isn’t a starter or has a very high upside due to their draft capital/profile. They do not carry the WoRP firepower to command a place on your roster, they have the highest volatility of any position, and their price of acquisition is the least daunting. Use the leftover roster spots to carry extra QBs or anyone else who doesn’t play TE. 

Draft Picks - Hit rates and the true value of draft picks in terms of rookie selections will be covered in a future article. For the time being, the most crucial aspect for our agents to consider heading into the offseason is that draft picks are an invitation to the dance that only happens once a year. You don’t have to like dancing or rookies to appreciate that having tickets to this event gives managers the opportunity and flexibility to convert their draft currency into the resources they most desire for their squads. For this reason, it is pivotal to convert any speculative player into draft capital (which will only increase in value) and decide later during the draft season how to best utilize the asset. 

Usage Activity

The usage of a player is one of the most critical pieces of intel that we can use to our advantage. Here are some points of interest worth considering: 

Chargers vs. Raiders - The entire Raiders offense is being investigated for suspected war crimes after taking advantage of a Los Angeles Chargers team that conscientiously objected to playing defense this past week. Aidan O’Connell’s week 15 performance was night & day different from his NFL debut in week 4 versus the Chargers. Week 15 - 20/34 for 248 yards and 4 passing TDs / Week 4 - 24/39 for 238 yards, 1 INT, 1 rushing TD. Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers were among the many beneficiaries in this game who went on to combine for 3 total TDs. Despite having a tough matchup versus the Chiefs in week 16, look to Las Vegas to once again go all in on their pass-catchers should Josh Jacobs miss this pivotal divisional game.
Easton Stick’s 23/32 for 257 yards, 3 TDs, & 1 INT will likely not be remembered given how badly the Chargers defense performed in giving up 63 points. His performance was admirable considering he was playing without the Charger’s top receiver (Keenan Allen) and he received little help from their pass-catching RB Austin Ekeler, who only managed 38 total yards on 9 touches. Things will not get any easier for the Chargers as they take on the Bills in week 16.

Vikings vs. Bengals - Patiently bided his time in dormant, the sleeper cell Jake Browning has unleashed an unquenchable fury on the league since being activated. Over the last 3 weeks, Browning is 4th in fantasy PPG (23.8 pts/g), first in completion percentage (76.7% - minimum 11 passes), and first in passing yards (953 yds). We’ll see if he can keep up this amazing stretch versus Pittsburgh and Kansas City.
Nick Mullens isn’t the flashiest signal-caller in the league, but his 26/33 for 303 yards, 2 TDs, & 2 INTs was good enough for QB11 on the week. Justin Jefferson (7/10 for 84 yds), Jordan Addison (6/6 for 111 yds & 2 TDs), and T.J. Hockenson were all able to enjoy solid outings despite the change at quarterback. In addition to Addison, Ty Chandler also put together a highly productive day with 157 total yards and 1 TD versus the Bengals. Chandler may not be able to replicate this performance versus a stout Lions rush defense in week 16, but Chandler is still a worthwhile flex play if Alexander Mattison misses another week with his injury.

Broncos vs. Lions - Despite only having 25 red zone touches on the year (26th amongst RBs) and 3 goal-line opportunities, Jahmyr Gibbs has made the most of his split opportunities in arguably the 2nd best backfield tandem of 2023 (behind only Miami’s RB duo). It is remarkable how comparable Gibbs’ 2023 stats in the NFL are to his 2022 stats at Alabama: Fantasy PPG: ALB - 16.42, DET - 17.0 … Routes/G: ALB - 20.3, DET - 19.8 … YdsPerCarry: ALB - 5.7, DET - 5.7 … YdsAfterContactPerAttempt: ALB - 3.39, DET - 3.22 … Target Share: ALB - 14.7%, DET - 14.9%. Both Gibbs and Montgomery will look to keep the ground game rolling in their divisional matchup with Minnesota, whom they will play in 2 out of their next 3 games.
There isn’t much to report for the Broncos other than Courtland Sutton not scoring his customary TD. The coaching staff continues to treat Marvin Mims like the Roswell Landing and struggle to harness his alien talents. Denver will look to bounce back versus New England this week.   

Bears vs. Browns - Joe Flacco is playing like the best QB the Browns have had since the Cold War. This man is playing like there is no tomorrow with his 939 passing yards over the last three weeks (2nd in NFL) and 5 INTs (highest in NFL over the span). Facing a Stroud-less Texans team this week and a revenge game against the Jets the following week, look for Flacco to scorch the earth with David Njoku, Amari Cooper, and an elite defense who are all fighting for the honor and pride of their comrade, Nick Chubb.
The Bears did not play well against the Browns, with only 166 yards through the air. They will rectify their performance next week against an exploitable Cardinals team.

Buccaneers vs. Packers - Chris Godwin’s 155 receiving yards against the Packers was the most he’s had in a game since week 12 of 2019 and was the 3rd highest number of yards he ever recorded in his career. It was only the 3rd time in Baker Mayfield’s career to throw for 4 TDs, which he hadn’t done since week 13 of 2020. Mayfield is on pace to have the best year of his entire career. If he manages to lock up the AFC South, Baker could lock up an extension with the Buccaneers this offseason. Mike Evans continues to pile on the TDs with another score this past week. Evans is 2nd amongst WRs with 11 receiving TDs (only 1 behind Tyreek Hill) and could come close to having his best season since 2018.     
Despite playing efficiently in the first half, Jordan Love couldn’t keep up with Baker’s stellar performance but still managed 29/39 for 284 passing yards and 2 TDs against the Buccaneers. Dontayvion Wicks (6/7 for 97 yds), Jayden Reed (6/8 for 52 yds & 1 TD), and Tucker Kraft (4/6 for 57 yds & 1 TD) have each enjoyed spectacular rookie campaigns with their first-year quarterback. The Packers will hope to be one step closer to sneaking into the playoffs when they face off with the Panthers this week.

49ers vs. Cardinals - Since Week 10, Brock Purdy has led the league in completion % (71.9%), passing yards (1762 yds), Passing TDs (17), and is tied with Dak Prescott & Bryce Young for the least number of INTs during this span (2 INTs). What’s most impressive is that Purdy has accomplished all of this on only 160 attempts, which is the fewest of any quarterback who has played all six games since week 10. Purdy made easy work of the Cardinals, going 16/25 for 242 yards and 4 passing TDs.  At -200, Purdy is currently the favorite to win the NFL MVP but will have to face off against a Ravens defense that will likely prove to be his toughest matchup since week 6 versus the Browns.
Since Kyler Murray returned to the lineup in week 10, Trey McBride has been the #1 TE in the league with 17.3 PPG (PPR), comfortably ahead of Sam LaPorta (15.8 PPG) and T.J. Hockenson (15.7 PPG). McBride has also led all TEs in receiving with 425 yards over this timeframe as well. With plus matchups versus Chicago and Philadelphia to close out the fantasy season, McBride could prove to be one of the most dangerous assets on championship rosters. 

Waiver Targets

Spymaster Vanek will provide the latest intel through his America’s Game report. In terms of FAAB bidding, review your league’s previous waiver behavior to navigate the wire best. The waiver wire will become more bare as the season continues, especially in best ball formats.

• Trey Sermon/Tyler Goodson - 14 & 2% rostership, spend up to 10% FAAB (Both RBs were efficient, but it remains to be seen if Moss or Taylor will return wk. 16)

• Elijah Higgins - 13% rostership, 5% FAAB (Could be in line for a big opportunity if Trey McBride misses wk. 16)

• Mason Rudolph - 2% rostership, 10% FAAB (Mason it typically hit or miss, but if you’re desperate then maybe Rudolph can perform a Christmas miracle and save your fantasy season)