Week 13 Dossier
12 Angry Running backs
Crossing The Line
Your senses are heightened as you look out your passenger-side window and bounce through the narrow city streets. In four unmarked SUVs, your covert ops team does its best to not draw any attention from any rooftop spotters. Based upon intel from your white-suited contact, the asset traffickers were looking to sure-up their remaining weakness at the RB position. The mission details were simple: extract the remaining RB assets before the dynasty lords, forcing them to move their picks out in the open and hopefully make a mistake. As you struggle to control your breathing, you notice the man sitting beside you is completely calm. A local advisor that you had no prior knowledge of before the mission briefing only a few hours ago. “Nothing will happen en route,” he says, “don’t worry.” You reply, “How can you be so sure?” Looking out the window he softly replies, “You’ll see.”
With the location of the RB targets in sight, you give your final commands to the team, “Let’s get our guys and get the hell out of here.” In unison, each vehicle comes to a sudden stop and your team descends upon the surrounding buildings. Unsure of where to look, you knock down each door in front of you and pursue every path that remotely looks like a trade opportunity. But every room is empty. “Status?!” you exclaim through your radio. Your team reports back, “Nothing.” Something isn’t right. That’s when you receive the transmission from base, “Abort Mission! Report back immediately with your team!”
All your worst nightmares come alive as the reports trickle in. The Dynasty Lord never intended to pursue an RB; we just blindly followed what we were led to believe. Instead, the kingpin swung for the highest WoRP WR in the league… and connected. Our analysts simply assumed the asset was impregnable and that the contender wouldn’t take on such a risk and leverage some of their best assets to acquire such a piece. The local advisor slowly walks up to you saying, “Your agency will always be one step behind unless you consider the worst possibility. A true contender will not look to wound their opponent, but would rather take away their will to fight. Things are only going to get worse.” Usage Activity
Due to time constraints, there will unfortunately be no recaps of the week 13 matches. Instead, carefully review the following Agency Bulletin for your 11th-hour trades.Agency Bulletin
The following assets of interest are in various considerations for your Rest-Of-Season Mission. Elite assets will not be included in this report given their formidable prices. Do not engage in a trade until the following intel & parameters have been carefully reviewed:
The South Harmon Agency - Security Clearance will dictate access to this agency’s intel, but South Harmon operations are conducted on a daily basis with the objective of disrupting the fantasy space. Enroll in their academy as a recruit on Discord to gain access to their resources and train to become a top-tier fantasy operator. https://www.patreon.com/SouthHarmon
WoRP - Scoring settings & team needs will dictate which assets to pursue. WoRP is a valuable resource in not only establishing priority targets but also secondary and backup options if necessary. This resource can only be accessed through: https://www.southharmonff.com/worp
Managers to Target - Begin negotiations with managers who are on the opposite side of the standings. If your roster is rebuilding, prioritize trading with teams in the middle who are desperate to contend & whose picks have higher upside. Managers at the bottom of the standings will become more eager to trade away their players to acquire picks as the season progresses. If your roster is in the middle, negotiate with other middling teams - if you are unable to acquire players to contend, then adapt & pursue the other direction with acquiring picks.
Scouting Weeks 14-17 - Prioritize the players with the best matchups during the most critical stage of the season.
FantasyCalc/KeepTradeCut - Where an asset ranks in the field ultimately determines its value. Dynasty Rankings and The Trade Database (which lists the most recent acquisitions of the asset of interest) are invaluable resources in leveraging suitable deals.
The Weekly Dossier - This classified document carefully lays out weekly reports and directives based on intelligence compiled from the most advanced agencies in the field (NFL, NextGenStats, ESPN, PFF, FantasyPros, FantasyLife, PlayerProfiler, Underdog, Fantasy Points Data).RB
There are several factors to consider when delving into the fragile RB market. Trade value, age, upside of talent, playoff schedule, and usage all impact how confident agents can be in deploying the player. Realistically, any one of these RBs can help secure mission success. With that said, inquire about the prices of all the following assets and pursue the acquisitions that make the most sense for your rosters.
Two data samples were used to examine the RB landscape this season. The first sample included the top 45 active RBs ranked by points per game. Analysts additionally used Routes/G, TPRR, Yards Created Per Touch, Evaded Tackles/G, Yards After Contact Per Attempt (YCO/Att), Elusive Rating, Athletic Traits, Dominator Rating, Breakaway Runs, TDs, Snap Share, Target Share, and Red Zone Touches over weeks 1-12 to rate these RBs. The following are the top 24 season-long RBs: 1 Christian McCaffrey (SF)2 De'Von Achane (MIA)3 Saquon Barkley (NYG)4 Kenneth Walker III (SEA)5 Kyren Williams (LAR)6 Jahmyr Gibbs (DET)7 Breece Hall (NYJ)8 Raheem Mostert (MIA)9 Austin Ekeler (LAC)10 Jaylen Warren (PIT)11 Travis Etienne Jr. (JAC)12 Bijan Robinson (ATL)13 Rachaad White (TB)14 Josh Jacobs (LV)15 Tyjae Spears (TEN)16 Brian Robinson Jr. (WAS)17 Tony Pollard (DAL)18 Alvin Kamara (NO)19 David Montgomery (DET)20 Joe Mixon (CIN)21 D'Andre Swift (PHI)22 Jaleel McLaughlin (DEN)23 Aaron Jones (GB)24 James Conner (ARI)The second sample utilized the same metrics as the first sample but instead focused solely on the previous five weeks of the season (weeks 8-12) to determine changes in recent production and to identify the highest-performing RBs heading into the fantasy playoffs. The following are the top 23 RBs from weeks 8-12:1 Christian McCaffrey (SF)2 Austin Ekeler (LAC)3 Saquon Barkley (NYG)4 Jahmyr Gibbs (DET)5 Jaylen Warren (PIT)6 Joe Mixon (CIN)7 Breece Hall (NYJ)8 Rachaad White (TB)9 Bijan Robinson (ATL)10 David Montgomery (DET)11 Keaton Mitchell (BAL)12 Travis Etienne Jr. (JAC)13 James Conner (ARI)14 Brian Robinson Jr. (WAS)15 Josh Jacobs (LV)16 Tyjae Spears (TEN)17 Kenneth Walker III (SEA)18 Aaron Jones (GB)19 Alvin Kamara (NO)20 D'Andre Swift (PHI)21 Tony Pollard (DAL)22 Raheem Mostert (MIA)23 Jaleel McLaughlin (DEN)Primary Targets
De’Von Achane - Already one of the most talented players in the entire league as a rookie, Achane has shown elite upside albeit a small sample. Behind only Christian McCaffrey in PPG (PPR) at 20.6 pts, 2nd in yards created per touch (6.06 yds), 2nd in YCO/Att (7.26 yds), and 2nd in elusive rating per PFF (281.4). Achane’s main claim to fame is his Olympic-caliber 4.32 speed (99th percentile). Despite missing the previous four weeks due to injury and an early exit in his first game back, Achane is 10th in breakaway runs and 7th in TDs. His sub-2x 1st-round picks price tag trade window may have closed, but he is still worth pursuing given his immense upside and being virtually matchup-proof as a weapon that can be deployed on the ground and through the air. 
Kyren Williams - The biggest surprise at the RB position this year will continue to shock fantasy opponents throughout the playoffs with his 4th best 18.5 PPG (PPR). Kyren has received insane usage throughout this season, including being #1 in snap share (85.9%) and #1 in routes per game (27.7). He is tied with Kenneth Walker III for 3rd in 4.3 evaded tackles per game. After a tough matchup with Baltimore in week 14, Kyren has the great fortune of finishing the season with Washington, New Orleans, and the New York Giants. He may have the murkiest future of all the RBs on this list, but the ‘live today, gone tomorrow’ nature of the RB position may be the price paid to secure a championship this season.
Alvin Kamara - One of the most consistent RBs this year and enjoying his best season since 2020 is Alvin Kamara. He is just behind Achane at 20.5 PPG (PPR) this season and is 2nd in TPRR (33%). Kamara is 1st in target share amongst all RBs at 21.5%. The only slight concern about Kamara’s game is his slight dip in all of these categories over the last 5 weeks (18.1 PPG, 29% TPRR, 15.2% tgt share). Kamara’s remaining schedule makes up for this minor decline with matchups against the Panthers, Giants, Rams, and the Buccaneers.Secondary Options
David Montgomery - One of the biggest risers in performance over the latter half of the season has been David Montgomery. Despite sharing a backfield with one of the most talented RBs in the league (Jahmyr Gibbs), Montgomery has averaged a respectable 17.2 PPG (PPR) thanks largely to his as the clear-cut goal-line back for the Lions (4th in TDs amongst RBs). Since week 8, Montgomery has been 3rd at the position in YCO/Att at 4.03 yards and 7th in breakaway run rate (49.5%). Montgomery will face a tough Cowboys defense in week 17, but leading up to championship week are favorable matchups with the Bears, Broncos, and Vikings. 
Rachaad White - A running back who is flying completely under the radar, likely due to his lack of market appeal, is Rachaad White. The Tampa Bay Buccaneer has been one of the best running backs since week 8, averaging the 3rd highest PPG (PPR) at the position with 18.9 pts. White has been a focal point in the passing attack, running an average of 23.2 routes per game throughout the season (4th best), and since week 8 has had a 13% target share. His 81% snap share is only behind Christian McCaffrey over the last five weeks. Agents can do far worse at the RB position compared to White’s fantasy playoffs against Atlanta, Green Bay, Jacksonville, and New Orleans.
D’Andre Swift - His PPG since week 8 may not inspire confidence heading into the playoffs (13.2 pt average since week 8 vs. 15 pt average over whole season), but Swift remains a buy in this scarce RB market. His ability as a runner has not diminished as the season has progressed (increased from 3.4 to 3.5 evaded tackles/g & from a 57.3 to a 67.2 elusive rating over the last 5 weeks), but mainly his role in the receiving game has been the major contributor to his minor downswing in points. This is due in large part to the Eagles facing the most brutal 4-week stretch any team has faced all season with the Chiefs, Bills, 49ers, and next up, the Cowboys. It would be difficult for any RB not named Christian McCaffrey to remain a focal point in an offense that is stretched to the brink with these offensive juggernauts. What makes Swift a buy is the calm after the storm: a highly favorable playoff stretch with the Seahawks, the Giants, and the Cardinals in the final week.Backup Options:
Josh Jacobs - Josh Jacobs may not be elite in any singular category, but his well-rounded repertoire, consistency, and high-value usage are good enough to land him on the backup options. Since week 8, Jacobs has had the 4th highest snap share at the position (78%). Since week 1, the Raiders RB has been 3rd in the league with 40 red zone touches. Touches, TDs, and a favorable playoff stretch versus the Vikings, Chargers, Chiefs, and Colts may be enough for you to consider adding the young veteran RB.
Tony Pollard - Of all the RBs on this list, exercise the most caution with Tony Pollard. A player that many (including this Agency) touted as a top 5 option coming into the season, Pollard has unfortunately fallen short of those expectations but has still performed as an RB1. His increased usage in the passing game (22.2 routes/g since week 8) and 2nd highest red zone touches finally bearing fruit in the form of TDs is what bears consideration moving forward. With a remaining schedule that includes high-octane offenses in Philadelphia, Buffalo, Miami, and Detroit, Pollard could be an appealing trade target if his work in the passing game and red zone continues. 
Austin Ekeler - It may not feel like Austin Ekeler has performed well over the last 5 weeks, or the season as a whole, but with the Chargers being desperate to make the playoffs and the offense being completely devoid of weapons outside of Keenan Allen, the team has continued to rely on the dual-threat RB. Since week 8, Ekeler has been 3rd amongst RBs with 23.4 routes/g, tied for 4th in red zone touches (14), 5th in snap share (71%), 5th in target share (15.3%), and 9th in TPRR (25%). His biggest saving grace however may be the most favorable playoff schedule any RB on this list has: Denver, Las Vegas, Buffalo, and Denver. Ekeler is the oldest RB on this list, and appears to have lost a step or two, but remains a viable option given his usage & schedule if another RB can not be secured.Up & Coming Recruits:
Jaylen Warren - Jaylen Warren would be a secondary option if it were not for the injury to signal-caller Kenny Pickett, but such is the nature of the football business. Warren has begun to separate himself as one of the more talented backs in the league. His 30% TPRR and 5.46 yards created per touch are each the 4th highest marks of all RBs this season. Warren is one of the shiftiest RBs in the league with 4.5 evaded tackles per game, which is tied for 1st along with Breece Hall. This aspect of his game is further verified in his 312.5 elusiveness rating since week 8, which is good enough for 2nd best over that span. His ability to dodge tackles is matched by his power with 5.02 YCO/Att (2nd in NFL since week 8 amongst RBs) and speed with a 10% breakaway run rate (2nd best in NFL). All three of these aspects of Warren’s game make him one of the most balanced RBs in the league.
Keaton Mitchell - The Ravens RB is one of the most intriguing prospects heading into next year. Since week 1, Keaton Mitchell has the highest yards created per touch (7.38), YCO/Att (8.35), and elusiveness rating (382.7) in the entire league at RB. Mitchell has only improved as the season has progressed with a position-high 399.3 elusiveness rating and 78% breakaway run rate over the last 5 weeks of the season per PFF. If Keaton Mitchell can keep up this spectacular run heading into the playoffs, his future could be bright as the lead RB for the run-heavy Ravens.
Tyjae Spears - In the shadow of King Henry could arise a new heir to the Titans’ RB throne. At 4.58 yards created per touch and 3.77 yards after contact per attempt, Spears is 5th and 4th best in each respective category. His 172.5 elusiveness rating is ranked 3rd best since week 8 according to PFF. Spears’ breakaway run rate of 49.4% (4th best since week 8) perfectly complements his arsenal of elusiveness and power. Spears has all the talent to reign as a productive leadback once he has been given the opportunity.
Every one of these up-and-coming RBs fits the mold of possessing game-changing agility, power, speed, and versatility. With a 2024 RB class that many anticipate will be disappointing, it would be advantageous to acquire as many shares of these three RBs as possible.Waiver Targets
Spymaster Vanek will provide the latest intel through his America’s Game report. In terms of FAAB bidding, review your league’s previous waiver behavior to navigate the wire best. The waiver wire will become more bare as the season continues, especially in best ball formats.Mitch Trubisky - 17% rostership, spend up to 10-13% FAAB (Pickett could miss multiple weeks)C.J. Beathard - 2% rostership, spend up to 8-10% FAAB (The severity of Lawrence’s injury and Beathard’s ability to play QB are both complete unknowns)Parker Washington - 30% rostership, 0-1% FAAB (The severity of Kirk’s injury & the lack of clarity surrounding the JAX QB are both worth considering)Jameis Winston - 36% rostership, 10-15% FAAB (Matchup with Carolina may be a better option over picking up Trubisky or Beathard)Brevin Jordan - 37% rostership, 0-1% FAAB (Decent waiver add if Schultz misses any more time)Demarcus Robinson - 5% rostership, 1-3% FAAB (Has out-snapped Tutu Atwell the last 2 weeks)
