Week 13 Dossier

12 Angry Running backs

Crossing The Line

Your senses are heightened as you look out your passenger-side window and bounce through the narrow city streets. In four unmarked SUVs, your covert ops team does its best to not draw any attention from any rooftop spotters. Based upon intel from your white-suited contact, the asset traffickers were looking to sure-up their remaining weakness at the RB position. The mission details were simple: extract the remaining RB assets before the dynasty lords, forcing them to move their picks out in the open and hopefully make a mistake. As you struggle to control your breathing, you notice the man sitting beside you is completely calm. A local advisor that you had no prior knowledge of before the mission briefing only a few hours ago. “Nothing will happen en route,” he says, “don’t worry.” You reply, “How can you be so sure?” Looking out the window he softly replies, “You’ll see.”

With the location of the RB targets in sight, you give your final commands to the team, “Let’s get our guys and get the hell out of here.” In unison, each vehicle comes to a sudden stop and your team descends upon the surrounding buildings. Unsure of where to look, you knock down each door in front of you and pursue every path that remotely looks like a trade opportunity. But every room is empty. “Status?!” you exclaim through your radio. Your team reports back, “Nothing.” Something isn’t right. That’s when you receive the transmission from base, “Abort Mission! Report back immediately with your team!”

All your worst nightmares come alive as the reports trickle in. The Dynasty Lord never intended to pursue an RB; we just blindly followed what we were led to believe. Instead, the kingpin swung for the highest WoRP WR in the league… and connected. Our analysts simply assumed the asset was impregnable and that the contender wouldn’t take on such a risk and leverage some of their best assets to acquire such a piece. The local advisor slowly walks up to you saying, “Your agency will always be one step behind unless you consider the worst possibility. A true contender will not look to wound their opponent, but would rather take away their will to fight. Things are only going to get worse.” 

Usage Activity

Due to time constraints, there will unfortunately be no recaps of the week 13 matches. Instead, carefully review the following Agency Bulletin for your 11th-hour trades.

Agency Bulletin

The following assets of interest are in various considerations for your Rest-Of-Season Mission. Elite assets will not be included in this report given their formidable prices. Do not engage in a trade until the following intel & parameters have been carefully reviewed:

The South Harmon Agency - Security Clearance will dictate access to this agency’s intel, but South Harmon operations are conducted on a daily basis with the objective of disrupting the fantasy space. Enroll in their academy as a recruit on Discord to gain access to their resources and train to become a top-tier fantasy operator. https://www.patreon.com/SouthHarmon
 
WoRP - Scoring settings & team needs will dictate which assets to pursue. WoRP is a valuable resource in not only establishing priority targets but also secondary and backup options if necessary. This resource can only be accessed through: https://www.southharmonff.com/worp

Managers to Target - Begin negotiations with managers who are on the opposite side of the standings. If your roster is rebuilding, prioritize trading with teams in the middle who are desperate to contend & whose picks have higher upside. Managers at the bottom of the standings will become more eager to trade away their players to acquire picks as the season progresses. If your roster is in the middle, negotiate with other middling teams - if you are unable to acquire players to contend, then adapt & pursue the other direction with acquiring picks.

Scouting Weeks 14-17 - Prioritize the players with the best matchups during the most critical stage of the season.  

FantasyCalc/KeepTradeCut - Where an asset ranks in the field ultimately determines its value. Dynasty Rankings and The Trade Database (which lists the most recent acquisitions of the asset of interest) are invaluable resources in leveraging suitable deals.

The Weekly Dossier -  This classified document carefully lays out weekly reports and directives based on intelligence compiled from the most advanced agencies in the field (NFL, NextGenStats, ESPN, PFF, FantasyPros, FantasyLife, PlayerProfiler, Underdog, Fantasy Points Data).

RB

There are several factors to consider when delving into the fragile RB market. Trade value, age, upside of talent, playoff schedule, and usage all impact how confident agents can be in deploying the player. Realistically, any one of these RBs can help secure mission success. With that said, inquire about the prices of all the following assets and pursue the acquisitions that make the most sense for your rosters.

Two data samples were used to examine the RB landscape this season. The first sample included the top 45 active RBs ranked by points per game. Analysts additionally used Routes/G, TPRR, Yards Created Per Touch, Evaded Tackles/G, Yards After Contact Per Attempt (YCO/Att), Elusive Rating, Athletic Traits, Dominator Rating, Breakaway Runs, TDs, Snap Share, Target Share, and Red Zone Touches over weeks 1-12 to rate these RBs. The following are the top 24 season-long RBs: 

1	Christian McCaffrey (SF)

2	De'Von Achane (MIA)

3	Saquon Barkley (NYG)

4	Kenneth Walker III (SEA)

5	Kyren Williams (LAR)

6	Jahmyr Gibbs (DET)

7	Breece Hall (NYJ)

8	Raheem Mostert (MIA)

9	Austin Ekeler (LAC)

10	Jaylen Warren (PIT)

11	Travis Etienne Jr. (JAC)

12	Bijan Robinson (ATL)

13	Rachaad White (TB)

14	Josh Jacobs (LV)

15	Tyjae Spears (TEN)

16	Brian Robinson Jr. (WAS)

17	Tony Pollard (DAL)

18	Alvin Kamara (NO)

19	David Montgomery (DET)

20	Joe Mixon (CIN)

21	D'Andre Swift (PHI)

22	Jaleel McLaughlin (DEN)

23	Aaron Jones (GB)

24   James Conner (ARI)

The second sample utilized the same metrics as the first sample but instead focused solely on the previous five weeks of the season (weeks 8-12) to determine changes in recent production and to identify the highest-performing RBs heading into the fantasy playoffs. The following are the top 23 RBs from weeks 8-12:

1	Christian McCaffrey (SF)

2	Austin Ekeler (LAC)

3	Saquon Barkley (NYG)

4	Jahmyr Gibbs (DET)

5	Jaylen Warren (PIT)

6	Joe Mixon (CIN)

7	Breece Hall (NYJ)

8	Rachaad White (TB)

9	Bijan Robinson (ATL)

10	David Montgomery (DET)

11	Keaton Mitchell (BAL)

12	Travis Etienne Jr. (JAC)

13	James Conner (ARI)

14	Brian Robinson Jr. (WAS)

15	Josh Jacobs (LV)

16	Tyjae Spears (TEN)

17	Kenneth Walker III (SEA)

18	Aaron Jones (GB)

19	Alvin Kamara (NO)

20	D'Andre Swift (PHI)

21	Tony Pollard (DAL)

22	Raheem Mostert (MIA)

23   Jaleel McLaughlin (DEN)

Primary Targets

De’Von Achane - Already one of the most talented players in the entire league as a rookie, Achane has shown elite upside albeit a small sample. Behind only Christian McCaffrey in PPG (PPR) at 20.6 pts, 2nd in yards created per touch (6.06 yds), 2nd in YCO/Att (7.26 yds), and 2nd in elusive rating per PFF (281.4). Achane’s main claim to fame is his Olympic-caliber 4.32 speed (99th percentile). Despite missing the previous four weeks due to injury and an early exit in his first game back, Achane is 10th in breakaway runs and 7th in TDs. His sub-2x 1st-round picks price tag trade window may have closed, but he is still worth pursuing given his immense upside and being virtually matchup-proof as a weapon that can be deployed on the ground and through the air. 

Kyren Williams - The biggest surprise at the RB position this year will continue to shock fantasy opponents throughout the playoffs with his 4th best 18.5 PPG (PPR). Kyren has received insane usage throughout this season, including being #1 in snap share (85.9%) and #1 in routes per game (27.7). He is tied with Kenneth Walker III for 3rd in 4.3 evaded tackles per game. After a tough matchup with Baltimore in week 14, Kyren has the great fortune of finishing the season with Washington, New Orleans, and the New York Giants. He may have the murkiest future of all the RBs on this list, but the ‘live today, gone tomorrow’ nature of the RB position may be the price paid to secure a championship this season.

Alvin Kamara - One of the most consistent RBs this year and enjoying his best season since 2020 is Alvin Kamara. He is just behind Achane at 20.5 PPG (PPR) this season and is 2nd in TPRR (33%). Kamara is 1st in target share amongst all RBs at 21.5%. The only slight concern about Kamara’s game is his slight dip in all of these categories over the last 5 weeks (18.1 PPG, 29% TPRR, 15.2% tgt share). Kamara’s remaining schedule makes up for this minor decline with matchups against the Panthers, Giants, Rams, and the Buccaneers.

Secondary Options

David Montgomery - One of the biggest risers in performance over the latter half of the season has been David Montgomery. Despite sharing a backfield with one of the most talented RBs in the league (Jahmyr Gibbs), Montgomery has averaged a respectable 17.2 PPG (PPR) thanks largely to his as the clear-cut goal-line back for the Lions (4th in TDs amongst RBs). Since week 8, Montgomery has been 3rd at the position in YCO/Att at 4.03 yards and 7th in breakaway run rate (49.5%). Montgomery will face a tough Cowboys defense in week 17, but leading up to championship week are favorable matchups with the Bears, Broncos, and Vikings. 

Rachaad White - A running back who is flying completely under the radar, likely due to his lack of market appeal, is Rachaad White. The Tampa Bay Buccaneer has been one of the best running backs since week 8, averaging the 3rd highest PPG (PPR) at the position with 18.9 pts. White has been a focal point in the passing attack, running an average of 23.2 routes per game throughout the season (4th best), and since week 8 has had a 13% target share. His 81% snap share is only behind Christian McCaffrey over the last five weeks. Agents can do far worse at the RB position compared to White’s fantasy playoffs against Atlanta, Green Bay, Jacksonville, and New Orleans.

D’Andre Swift - His PPG since week 8 may not inspire confidence heading into the playoffs (13.2 pt average since week 8 vs. 15 pt average over whole season), but Swift remains a buy in this scarce RB market. His ability as a runner has not diminished as the season has progressed (increased from 3.4 to 3.5 evaded tackles/g & from a 57.3 to a 67.2 elusive rating over the last 5 weeks), but mainly his role in the receiving game has been the major contributor to his minor downswing in points. This is due in large part to the Eagles facing the most brutal 4-week stretch any team has faced all season with the Chiefs, Bills, 49ers, and next up, the Cowboys. It would be difficult for any RB not named Christian McCaffrey to remain a focal point in an offense that is stretched to the brink with these offensive juggernauts. What makes Swift a buy is the calm after the storm: a highly favorable playoff stretch with the Seahawks, the Giants, and the Cardinals in the final week.

Backup Options:

Josh Jacobs - Josh Jacobs may not be elite in any singular category, but his well-rounded repertoire, consistency, and high-value usage are good enough to land him on the backup options. Since week 8, Jacobs has had the 4th highest snap share at the position (78%). Since week 1, the Raiders RB has been 3rd in the league with 40 red zone touches. Touches, TDs, and a favorable playoff stretch versus the Vikings, Chargers, Chiefs, and Colts may be enough for you to consider adding the young veteran RB.

Tony Pollard - Of all the RBs on this list, exercise the most caution with Tony Pollard. A player that many (including this Agency) touted as a top 5 option coming into the season, Pollard has unfortunately fallen short of those expectations but has still performed as an RB1. His increased usage in the passing game (22.2 routes/g since week 8) and 2nd highest red zone touches finally bearing fruit in the form of TDs is what bears consideration moving forward. With a remaining schedule that includes high-octane offenses in Philadelphia, Buffalo, Miami, and Detroit, Pollard could be an appealing trade target if his work in the passing game and red zone continues. 

Austin Ekeler - It may not feel like Austin Ekeler has performed well over the last 5 weeks, or the season as a whole, but with the Chargers being desperate to make the playoffs and the offense being completely devoid of weapons outside of Keenan Allen, the team has continued to rely on the dual-threat RB. Since week 8, Ekeler has been 3rd amongst RBs with 23.4 routes/g, tied for 4th in red zone touches (14), 5th in snap share (71%), 5th in target share (15.3%), and 9th in TPRR (25%). His biggest saving grace however may be the most favorable playoff schedule any RB on this list has: Denver, Las Vegas, Buffalo, and Denver. Ekeler is the oldest RB on this list, and appears to have lost a step or two, but remains a viable option given his usage & schedule if another RB can not be secured.

Up & Coming Recruits:

Jaylen Warren - Jaylen Warren would be a secondary option if it were not for the injury to signal-caller Kenny Pickett, but such is the nature of the football business. Warren has begun to separate himself as one of the more talented backs in the league. His 30% TPRR and 5.46 yards created per touch are each the 4th highest marks of all RBs this season. Warren is one of the shiftiest RBs in the league with 4.5 evaded tackles per game, which is tied for 1st along with Breece Hall. This aspect of his game is further verified in his 312.5 elusiveness rating since week 8, which is good enough for 2nd best over that span. His ability to dodge tackles is matched by his power with 5.02 YCO/Att (2nd in NFL since week 8 amongst RBs) and speed with a 10% breakaway run rate (2nd best in NFL). All three of these aspects of Warren’s game make him one of the most balanced RBs in the league.

Keaton Mitchell - The Ravens RB is one of the most intriguing prospects heading into next year. Since week 1, Keaton Mitchell has the highest yards created per touch (7.38), YCO/Att (8.35), and elusiveness rating (382.7) in the entire league at RB. Mitchell has only improved as the season has progressed with a position-high 399.3 elusiveness rating and 78% breakaway run rate over the last 5 weeks of the season per PFF. If Keaton Mitchell can keep up this spectacular run heading into the playoffs, his future could be bright as the lead RB for the run-heavy Ravens.

Tyjae Spears - In the shadow of King Henry could arise a new heir to the Titans’ RB throne. At 4.58 yards created per touch and 3.77 yards after contact per attempt, Spears is 5th and 4th best in each respective category. His 172.5 elusiveness rating is ranked 3rd best since week 8 according to PFF. Spears’ breakaway run rate of 49.4% (4th best since week 8) perfectly complements his arsenal of elusiveness and power. Spears has all the talent to reign as a productive leadback once he has been given the opportunity.

Every one of these up-and-coming RBs fits the mold of possessing game-changing agility, power, speed, and versatility. With a 2024 RB class that many anticipate will be disappointing, it would be advantageous to acquire as many shares of these three RBs as possible.

Waiver Targets

Spymaster Vanek will provide the latest intel through his America’s Game report. In terms of FAAB bidding, review your league’s previous waiver behavior to navigate the wire best. The waiver wire will become more bare as the season continues, especially in best ball formats.

• Mitch Trubisky - 17% rostership, spend up to 10-13% FAAB (Pickett could miss multiple weeks)

• C.J. Beathard - 2% rostership, spend up to 8-10% FAAB (The severity of Lawrence’s injury and Beathard’s ability to play QB are both complete unknowns)

• Parker Washington - 30% rostership, 0-1% FAAB (The severity of Kirk’s injury & the lack of clarity surrounding the JAX QB are both worth considering)

• Jameis Winston - 36% rostership, 10-15% FAAB (Matchup with Carolina may be a better option over picking up Trubisky or Beathard)

• Brevin Jordan - 37% rostership, 0-1% FAAB (Decent waiver add if Schultz misses any more time)

• Demarcus Robinson - 5% rostership, 1-3% FAAB (Has out-snapped Tutu Atwell the last 2 weeks)

Week 11 Dossier

Tradehunter

Dealing With A Pro

You shut the door to your small apartment, leaving the grueling five-day work trip and all of its demands behind you. Before you even take off your coat, you’re at your bar cart reaching for the Scotch your old Case Officer gifted you last Christmas. A deep exhale leaves your body as you think to yourself ‘Thank God that’s over.’ Only a brief moment of solitude passes before your phone rings. It's the Chief of Station. “Agent, there’s been a murder of a failed contender earlier this evening. I need you to go investigate the scene and then visit the coroners afterward. I’m sending you the address now.” “Sir, isn’t that for local law enforcement?” you reply. “This isn’t a regular murder, Agent. There’s evidence that ties the victim with high-level asset traffickers.” You say, “I already have my coat on sir, I’ll get right on it,” and then hang up.

The crime scene was a luxury apartment, located on the 77th floor. This victim certainly made his wealth known. Fantasy football podcasts echoed through the classy apartment from the victim’s computer - it’s too bad that none of this advice will matter anymore to the deceased. Sprawled across the dining table was the victim’s fantasy portfolio. It didn’t take long to realize that the victim was in a bad place with brutal injuries, zero draft picks, a squad on the wrong side of 30, and an empty bottle of vodka by the couch. It would appear that out of drunken desperation and boredom, they messaged the league chat craving a trade. There were no signs of a struggle at the scene - the assailant had patiently stalked their prey in DMs, fantasizing about this moment for weeks. The perp leveraged the victim’s own first-round draft pick as the murder weapon, right into their heart. As a trophy, the murderer took for themselves a top-tier QB, a league-winning WR, and to add further insult to the victim, a 3rd-round pick. This was not the attacker’s first time, nor would it be their last. 

Usage Activity

Due to limited resources and an expanded Agency Bulletin, there will not be a week 11 Usage Activity Report. Instead, the focus of this dossier will be potential trade targets at the WR position for this critical window of the fantasy season. 

Agency Bulletin

The following assets of interest are in various considerations for your Rest-Of-Season Mission. Elite assets will not be included in this report given their formidable prices. All intel for this agency bulletin was gathered via the Fantasy Points Data Suite, using the top 60 WRs ranked by fantasy points per game. Do not engage in a trade until the following intel & parameters have been carefully reviewed:

The South Harmon Agency - Security Clearance will dictate access to this agency’s intel, but South Harmon operations are conducted on a daily basis with the objective of disrupting the fantasy space. Enroll in their academy as a recruit on Discord to gain access to their resources and train to become a top-tier fantasy operator. https://www.patreon.com/SouthHarmon
 
WoRP - Scoring settings & team needs will dictate which assets to pursue. WoRP is a valuable resource in not only establishing priority targets but also secondary and backup options if necessary. This resource can only be accessed through: https://www.southharmonff.com/worp

Managers to Target - Begin negotiations with managers who are on the opposite side of the standings. If your roster is rebuilding, prioritize trading with teams in the middle who are desperate to contend & whose picks have higher upside. Managers at the bottom of the standings will become more eager to trade away their players to acquire picks as the season progresses. If your roster is in the middle, negotiate with other middling teams - if you are unable to acquire players to contend, then adapt & pursue the other direction with acquiring picks.

Scouting Weeks 12-17 - Prioritize the players with the best matchups during the most critical stage of the season.  

FantasyCalc/KeepTradeCut - Where an asset ranks in the field ultimately determines its value. Dynasty Rankings and The Trade Database (which lists the most recent acquisitions of the asset of interest) are invaluable resources in leveraging suitable deals.

The Weekly Dossier -  This classified document carefully lays out weekly reports and directives based on intelligence compiled from the most advanced agencies in the field (NFL, NextGenStats, ESPN, PFF, FantasyPros, FantasyLife, PlayerProfiler, Underdog).

WR

Top Tier Targets

At the top of the WR food chain in 2023 are Tyreek Hill and A.J. Brown. Hill leads all WRs at an insane 0.87 fantasy points per route run, far ahead of the 2nd place A.J. Brown, who registers 0.67 FP/RR. However, over the span of weeks 6-10, CeeDee Lamb has been the most dangerous WR in the league, with 0.82 FP/RR. Any three of these prized WRs could deliver a championship on a silver platter, but they would also extract a heavy cost. Garrett Wilson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Puka Nacua also carry league-winning upside according to our data, but likewise require a heavy price. Before selling your soul to attain these infinity-stone assets, carefully consider the following alternatives.

Priority Targets - Up to a 1st + 2nd in Value

Stefon Diggs - The 5th ranked WR in our data when weighing both the season as a whole and the past 5 weeks, Diggs ranks as our highest priority trade target. Diggs is 2nd amongst wideouts in routes run per team dropback (RTE% - 91.5%), 4th in air yards (1081 yards), has 9 End-Zone targets, is 5th in 1st Read % (38.2%), and 4th in 1st Downs (43). The biggest upside associated with Diggs is his remaining matchup schedule: in weeks 12-17, the Bills face the Eagles, have a bye week, then face the Chiefs, the Cowboys, the Chargers, and end the fantasy season with the Patriots. Weeks 12-16 are all matchups with ‘shootout’ potential, which could lead to massive usage for Stefon Diggs. The week 17 revenge match with the Patriots could be perfect for fantasy managers looking for a blowup game from Diggs in their championships. With dynasty rankings that range from WR8 on FantasyCalc and WR13 on KeepTradeCut, Diggs is arguably the safest and most attainable elite WR.

Brandon Aiyuk - A tier below, but carrying a huge upside, is our 15th-ranked WR. Brandon Aiyuk over the first 10 weeks of the season has the 4th highest aDOT (15 yards), the 2nd best yards per route run (3.48), and the 3rd best fantasy points per route run (0.64). Aiyuk’s numbers have slightly dipped over the last five weeks, but outside of week 16 versus Baltimore, our analysts project plus-matchups for the rest of the season for Aiyuk (@SEA, @PHI, SEA, @ARI, BAL, @WAS). At WR14 prices on KTC and WR22 on FantasyCalc, Aiyuk is ideal for any manager wanting to be boujee on a budget. 

Michael Pittman - Rounding out our priority targets is our 10th-ranked WR. Michael Pittman since week 6 has been number one in RTE% (93.7%), 4th in YAC (172 yds), and tied for 1st in the league in targets that come on design read plays (10). Pittman’s QB and rest-of-season schedule is what ultimately pushes him to third on our priority target rankings, but at WR17 prices on FantasyCalc and WR21 rankings on KTC, he is far outperforming his dynasty ranking. 

Honorable Mention - Davante Adams, 11th place rank: #1 in TGT% (30.3%), #2 in TPRR (0.31), #3 in 1stRead% (41.1%). QB play hard to bank on during this critical stage of the szn.

Secondary Targets - A Mid-Low 2nd and up to 2x 2nds in Value

Keenan Allen - At age 31, Keenan Allen is having arguably the best season of his great career as our 3rd-ranked WR in 2023. The only reason Allen is a secondary target and not a primary is solely because of his age and the large value risk that would befall any manager if Keenan were to suffer a significant injury. Since week 1, Allen is 3rd in TGT% (29.7%), 4th in TPRR (0.3), 4th in 1stRead% (38.6%), 2nd in PPR fantasy points per game (22.8 pts), and 3rd in Expected Fantasy Points per Game (20.4 pts). In addition to Allen’s age is the downside of the Charger’s remaining schedule, which will all prove to be difficult matchups. Keenan Allen managers will likely demand a 1st round pick for Allen’s production, but at WR19 prices on FantasyCalc and WR25 ranking on KTC, it may be feasible to acquire Allen from a desperate seller at cheaper prices. 

Mike Evans - As the 14th-best WR in our rankings, Mike Evans has remained one of the agency’s top targets all season long given his inexpensive value. Evans’ metrics do not jump off the page in any singular category, but instead, he ranks within the top 12-24 in nearly every major category, making him the perfect ‘under-the-radar’ league winner. In the same vein as Keenan Allen, the downside of Evans is his age and difficult remaining matchup schedule. The upside of the WR27 on FantasyCalc & WR33 on KTC resides with his consistency, talent, and QB Baker Mayfield’s affinity with throwing Evans targets while in the red zone.  

Courtland Sutton - As our 34th WR, Courtland Sutton is our lowest-ranked WR for this bulletin, but still worthy of consideration. Since week 6, Sutton is 3rd amongst wideouts in terms of air yard share (47%), is posting a respectable 26.3 TGT% (15th), and is 9th in FP/RR (0.61). And outside of their week 12 matchup with Cleveland, the rest of the season schedule for the Broncos is one of the most appealing in the league for a team that is on a 4-game win streak. As the WR39 on FantasyCalc and WR52 on KTC, Sutton and his QB Russell Wilson are performing far beyond the public sentiment. 

DeAndre Hopkins - The trend of older vet WRs continues with the 20th-ranked DeAndre Hopkins. Since week 6, the seasoned WR is 1st in aDOT (17.5 yds), 10th in YAC/REC (6.17 yds), and since week 1 is 6th in air yards (1068 yds), and 9th in expected fantasy points per route run (0.53). Like his peer counterparts Keenan Allen and Adam Thielen, Hopkins is uniquely situated as the only reliable pass-catcher on their respective teams. With a moderate rest-of-season schedule and a rookie QB, Hopkins is a mixed-bag of upside potential, but at WR48 rankings on FantasyCalc & KTC, he’s one of the cheapest assets in his tier.

Honorable Mention - Diontae Johnson, 18th place rank: since week 6 = 9th in RTE% (89.6%), 4th in AY Share (46.6%), and 5th in expected FP/G (17.7pts). Pickett and Canada are a gruesome twosome that I would prefer to not hinge my championship hopes on. 

Backup Targets - Up to 2x 3rds in Value

Adam Thielen - A perfect storm of opportunity has formed for the 33-year-old WR. The 22nd ranked WR in our data, Adam Thielen since week 1 is 9th in RTE% (88.5%), 9th in FP/G (17.8 pts), 9th in 1stDowns (38), 12th in YAC (260 yds), 13th in expected FP/G (16.6pts), and 16th in TGT% (24.6%). Given how poor the QB play has been in Carolina, it doesn’t particularly matter how favorable the rest of the season schedule is for the Panthers WRs. As the WR 41 on FantasyCalc and WR58 on KTC, it may be possible to once again acquire Thielen at the price of multiple third-round picks if he is still residing on a rebuilding team.

Odell Beckham - The 40th-ranked WR in our data, Odell Beckham has come on strong over the last few weeks of play. Since week 6, Beckham is 3rd in YAC/REC (7.88 yds), 3rd in Endzone Tgts (5), 3rd in expected FP/RR (0.63), 6th in YPRR (2.92 yds), 8th in TPRR (0.3 tgts), 11th in FP/RR (0.57 pts), 13th in aDOT (13 yds), and 22nd in air yards (389 yds). Odell Beckham has a favorable rest-of-season schedule, with multiple potential ‘shootout’ matchups. As the WR53 on FantasyCalc and the WR98 on KTC, pray that your potential trade partner only uses KTC to gauge the dynasty market and acquire OBJ for dirt cheap.  

Unique Scenario - If the first target cannot be acquired, move on to the teammate

DK Metcalf & Tyler Lockett - Seattle’s WRs are all heating up in time for the fantasy playoffs thanks to improved play from Geno Smith. If Geno can deliver clutch QB play in some upcoming prime matchups, both DK Metcalf (WR16 ranking) and Tyler Lockett (WR24) could take off. Since week 6, Metcalf & Lockett are 8th & 14th in air yards respectively, 9th & 23rd in aDOT, 16th & 26th in TGT%, and 10th & 20th in expected FP/G. DK by himself is 1st in Endzone targets (6) and 9th in YAC/REC (6.29 yds). At WR14 FantasyCalc values and WR17 KTC rankings, Metcalf will likely demand a 1st + 2nd, whereas Lockett will likely only cost a 2nd at his WR46 FantasyCalc & WR49 KTC values.  

Nathaniel Dell & Noah Brown - If the pair in Seattle are heating up, then the Houston Duo is on fire. Nathaniel “Tank” Dell (WR17 ranking) and Noah Brown (WR25) have both been elevated by the MVP-caliber play of C.J. Stroud. Since week 6, Tank Dell and Noah Brown rank 2nd & 11th in aDOT respectively and 6th & 11th in fantasy points/G. Dell by himself is 13th in RTE% (87.6%), 16th in air yards (447 yards), 10th TGT% (27.6%), 11th in TPRR (0.29 tgts), and 7th in 1stRead% (36.1%). Brown is 1st in YPRR (4.03 yds) and 2nd YAC/REC (9.22 yds). At WR20/26 values on KTC/FantasyCalc, Dell will cost anywhere from 2x 2nds to as much as a 1st-round pick. Brown on the other hand will only cost multiple 3rd round picks at WR55/64 prices on FantasyCalc/KTC. 

Waiver Targets

Spymaster Vanek will provide the latest intel through his America’s Game report. In terms of FAAB bidding, review your league’s previous waiver behavior to navigate the wire best. The waiver wire will become more bare as the season continues, especially in best ball formats.

• Jake Browning - 8% rostership, spend up to 25-50% FAAB (Burrow out ROS, Browning carries some upside as a competent backup)

• Tim Boyle/Joe Flacco - 10% rostership, spend up to 5% FAAB (If you miss out on acquiring Browning this week and Tommy DeVito from last week, then cautiously go after Boyle/Flacco). 

• Ty Johnson - 3% rostership, 1% FAAB (Bills still haven’t utilized Fournette, but they also remain as arguably the worst rushing team in the league.)

Week 1 Dossier

Pressed Back Into Action

Reporting for Duty

Welcome back. We thought you were dead. I trust that your time away was used wisely and wasn’t wasted away on a beach drinking endless Mai Tai’s. The season has officially begun, so we don’t have much time. You will immediately be reinstated into Active Service. Report to Field Surveillance to begin your briefing.

Field Surveillance

Beginning with what I observed from the opening weekend of NFL games, there are a few key takeaways that could impact the success of our fantasy seasons:

Defense & Running Game - The common theme in every outstanding performance or upset this week was dominant defenses that created turnovers. Through Week 1, the most intimidating defenses belong to the Dallas Cowboys (held NYG to 63 pass yds), the Cleveland Browns (held CIN to 142 total yds), the Los Angeles Rams (the biggest upset of Wk 1), and the San Francisco 49ers. Their Herculean performances led to the biggest blowouts we saw from this past weekend. These defenses are going to supply a rich amount of opportunities for their own offenses to put up ridiculous numbers in 2023.

Despite prevailing reports that running backs were either killed or MIA over the last few seasons, we can now confirm that many of these established defenses have allied themselves with prominent running games that can control the flow of contests. The Browns, Rams, Chargers, Jaguars, Lions, and 49ers all made their presence known through their ground assault (34+ attempts), which in turn led to positive outcomes for their passing attacks as well. These are only the preliminary findings through the limited sample we have, but it is generally recommended to acquire assets on teams that have command in the trenches.

Usage Activity

The usage of a player is one of the most critical pieces of intel that we can use to our advantage. Here are some points of interest worth considering:

Rams vs. Seahawks - Kyren Williams out-snapped Cam Akers 53 to 28 (65% vs. 35% snap share), but Cam still out-touched Kyren with 22 and 15 carries respectively. Those 22 carries for Akers amounted to only 23 yards - arguably the worst rushing performance of the entire weekend. Puka Nacua had arguably the best performance of any rookie in week 1, tying Tyreek Hill with a league-high 15 targets on a 78% snap share. Kenneth Walker, DK Metcalf, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba were all tied in the team-high targets at five each, with Tyler Lockett trailing closely behind with four targets.

Eagles vs. Patriots - Kendrick Bourne led all New England playmakers in snap percentage (91%) and targets (11), while Rhamondre Stevenson led the team in total touches with 18 (12 carries, 6 catches on 73% snap share). Ezekiel Elliot tied Roschon Johnson with a league-high 7 targets in the passing game. Kenneth Gainwell out-snapped D’Andre Swift 62% to 29% and out-touched him 18 to 2. 

Dolphins vs. Chargers - The Los Angeles ground attack was equally distributed between Austin Ekeler and Joshua Kelley at 51% & 48% snap share respectively and 16 carries each. The Cheetah is still the fastest animal in the NFL Kingdom, registering the two fastest plays from week 1 with a 21.66 mph 47 yd play and a 21.52 mph 35 yd touchdown.

Raiders vs. Broncos - Jakobi Meyers played 80% of the offensive snaps as the #2 WR behind Adams, well ahead of Hunter Renfrow’s 22% snap share. There is nothing to report on the Denver front. 

Packers vs. Bears - Roschon Johnson did not receive a touch until the 3rd quarter but led the three-headed committee with a 39% snap-share compared to Khalil’s 36% and D’Onta Foreman’s 28% share. Despite being 28 years old, Aaron Jones is still one of the best RBs in the league, posting the best fantasy performance at the position for week 1 and registering the third-fastest play behind only Tyreek Hill with his 21.48 mph 35 yd TD reception.

Cardinals vs. Commanders - Michael Wilson led all rookie WRs with a 90% snap share but registered only 2 catches on 4 targets. Brian Robinson continues to dominate Antonio Gibson in terms of touches (20 vs. 4) and snaps (61% vs. 35%).

I49ers vs. Steelers - Pittsburgh only attempted 9 total rushes with their RBs - it’s safe to say that being down 17-0 shortly after the beginning of the second quarter and going up against a nasty 49ers D-line forced the Steelers to abandon the run early. Brock Purdy posted the best QBR of week 1 at 91.3 (only slightly ahead of Matthew Stafford & Tua Tagovailoa).

Titans vs. Saints - Derrick Henry was out-snapped by backup Tyjae Spears 48% to 54% respectively, but in a similar fashion as Akers and Kyren with the Rams, Henry out-touched Spears 17 to 3. Ryan Tannehill recorded the worst passer rating of any QB in week 1 and should be deemed a threat to any playmaker production, but must be preserved as Tennessee’s Puppet QB over the far more disastrous backup options.

Jaguars vs. Colts - Travis Etienne was allotted the lion’s share of the running game with an 80% snap share and 23 touches (18 carries, 5 catches). Meanwhile, Deon Jackson gave Cam Akers a run for his money with one of the most abysmal performances in week 1 (14 rushing yds on 13 carries on a 71% snap share).

Bengals vs. Browns - In the battle for Ohio, Nick Chubb only played on 36 snaps (49% snap-share) but had 22 touches on the limited plays he saw, and led the Browns with 4 receptions. 

Texans vs. Ravens - Much will be made of Rashod Bateman’s limited usage (only 39% snap-share), but considering his injury history and recent foot procedure, it makes sense for the team to be cautious with their talented first-round pick. Their newest first-round pick selection is also very talented and commanded 9 receptions on 10 targets on an 84% snap share. Dameon Pierce did not enjoy the same type of performance, mustering 47 total yards on only 13 touches and a 45% snap-share.

Panthers vs. Falcons - The running game was the central attraction for both teams. Bijan Robinson led the Falcons RBs in snap-share at 63% (Tyler Allgeier had a 56% snap-share) but it was Allgeier who led the ground game in touches with 18 total (Bijan 16 total touches). There is a high level of suspicion that records of Desmond Ridder’s passing were Window-Dressed in order to deceive intelligence agencies that he had the second-highest Passer Rating from week 1 at 111.8 (behind Jordan Love’s 123.2 rating).

WoRP Arsenal

Before WoRP Technologies can be effectively utilized, 3-4 weeks of intel will be required to ensure greater mission success.

Waiver Targets

In terms of FAAB bidding, it’s best to review your league’s previous waiver behavior to best navigate the wire. 

• Joshua Kelley - 6.8% rostership, spend up to 10% FAAB (Ekeler’s status for week 2 unclear)

• Gus Edwards - 20.1% rostership, 5-6% FAAB (far more effective rusher over Justice Hill)

• Chuba Hubbard - 20.7% rostership, 5% FAAB

• Kyren Williams - 6.2% rostership, 4-5% FAAB

• Puka Nacua - 10.1% rostership, 10-15% FAAB

• Kendrick Bourne - 2% rostership, 3-4% FAAB (better for Best Ball)

• Rashid Shaheed - 12.6% rostership, 2-3% FAAB (only 54% snap share wk 1, better for BB)

• Josh Reynolds - 4.2% rostership, 0% FAAB (better for BB)

• Robert Woods - 9.1% rostership, 0% FAAB (better for BB)

• Allen Robinson - 4.6% rostership, 0% FAAB (led the team in receiving yds & tied for team-high snaps amongst PIT WRs at 89%, better for BB)

• Tutu Atwell - 6.5% rostership, 0% FAAB (hesitant to buy in just yet)

• River Cracraft - 0% rostership, 0% FAAB (better for BB)

• Hunter Henry - 7.3% rostership, 5% FAAB (don’t go on a wild TE chase)

• Hayden Hurst - 12.1% rostership, 4% FAAB

Double Agents

Do not trust the following assets:

• Kenneth Gainwell - 35.1% rostership - don’t buy the Swift propaganda

• Justice Hill - 0% rostership - the 2 TD provocateur will become a non-factor once Baltimore signs a new RB

Assets to Acquire

Given how early it is into our campaign, I advise caution and do not recommend trading away any 1st or 2nd round picks at this time:

• Jakobi Meyers - 2x 3rd rd picks or a 3rd + a player. I would wait another week or two before trading away a 2025 2nd. 

• Tyler Allgeier - 2x 3rd rd picks or a 3rd + a player. I would wait another week or two before trading away a 25 2nd.

• Joshua Kelley - 2x 4ths or a 3rd rd pick (start with a 25 3rd rd pick)