Week 11 Dossier

Tradehunter

Dealing With A Pro

You shut the door to your small apartment, leaving the grueling five-day work trip and all of its demands behind you. Before you even take off your coat, you’re at your bar cart reaching for the Scotch your old Case Officer gifted you last Christmas. A deep exhale leaves your body as you think to yourself ‘Thank God that’s over.’ Only a brief moment of solitude passes before your phone rings. It's the Chief of Station. “Agent, there’s been a murder of a failed contender earlier this evening. I need you to go investigate the scene and then visit the coroners afterward. I’m sending you the address now.” “Sir, isn’t that for local law enforcement?” you reply. “This isn’t a regular murder, Agent. There’s evidence that ties the victim with high-level asset traffickers.” You say, “I already have my coat on sir, I’ll get right on it,” and then hang up.

The crime scene was a luxury apartment, located on the 77th floor. This victim certainly made his wealth known. Fantasy football podcasts echoed through the classy apartment from the victim’s computer - it’s too bad that none of this advice will matter anymore to the deceased. Sprawled across the dining table was the victim’s fantasy portfolio. It didn’t take long to realize that the victim was in a bad place with brutal injuries, zero draft picks, a squad on the wrong side of 30, and an empty bottle of vodka by the couch. It would appear that out of drunken desperation and boredom, they messaged the league chat craving a trade. There were no signs of a struggle at the scene - the assailant had patiently stalked their prey in DMs, fantasizing about this moment for weeks. The perp leveraged the victim’s own first-round draft pick as the murder weapon, right into their heart. As a trophy, the murderer took for themselves a top-tier QB, a league-winning WR, and to add further insult to the victim, a 3rd-round pick. This was not the attacker’s first time, nor would it be their last. 

Usage Activity

Due to limited resources and an expanded Agency Bulletin, there will not be a week 11 Usage Activity Report. Instead, the focus of this dossier will be potential trade targets at the WR position for this critical window of the fantasy season. 

Agency Bulletin

The following assets of interest are in various considerations for your Rest-Of-Season Mission. Elite assets will not be included in this report given their formidable prices. All intel for this agency bulletin was gathered via the Fantasy Points Data Suite, using the top 60 WRs ranked by fantasy points per game. Do not engage in a trade until the following intel & parameters have been carefully reviewed:

The South Harmon Agency - Security Clearance will dictate access to this agency’s intel, but South Harmon operations are conducted on a daily basis with the objective of disrupting the fantasy space. Enroll in their academy as a recruit on Discord to gain access to their resources and train to become a top-tier fantasy operator. https://www.patreon.com/SouthHarmon
 
WoRP - Scoring settings & team needs will dictate which assets to pursue. WoRP is a valuable resource in not only establishing priority targets but also secondary and backup options if necessary. This resource can only be accessed through: https://www.southharmonff.com/worp

Managers to Target - Begin negotiations with managers who are on the opposite side of the standings. If your roster is rebuilding, prioritize trading with teams in the middle who are desperate to contend & whose picks have higher upside. Managers at the bottom of the standings will become more eager to trade away their players to acquire picks as the season progresses. If your roster is in the middle, negotiate with other middling teams - if you are unable to acquire players to contend, then adapt & pursue the other direction with acquiring picks.

Scouting Weeks 12-17 - Prioritize the players with the best matchups during the most critical stage of the season.  

FantasyCalc/KeepTradeCut - Where an asset ranks in the field ultimately determines its value. Dynasty Rankings and The Trade Database (which lists the most recent acquisitions of the asset of interest) are invaluable resources in leveraging suitable deals.

The Weekly Dossier -  This classified document carefully lays out weekly reports and directives based on intelligence compiled from the most advanced agencies in the field (NFL, NextGenStats, ESPN, PFF, FantasyPros, FantasyLife, PlayerProfiler, Underdog).

WR

Top Tier Targets

At the top of the WR food chain in 2023 are Tyreek Hill and A.J. Brown. Hill leads all WRs at an insane 0.87 fantasy points per route run, far ahead of the 2nd place A.J. Brown, who registers 0.67 FP/RR. However, over the span of weeks 6-10, CeeDee Lamb has been the most dangerous WR in the league, with 0.82 FP/RR. Any three of these prized WRs could deliver a championship on a silver platter, but they would also extract a heavy cost. Garrett Wilson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Puka Nacua also carry league-winning upside according to our data, but likewise require a heavy price. Before selling your soul to attain these infinity-stone assets, carefully consider the following alternatives.

Priority Targets - Up to a 1st + 2nd in Value

Stefon Diggs - The 5th ranked WR in our data when weighing both the season as a whole and the past 5 weeks, Diggs ranks as our highest priority trade target. Diggs is 2nd amongst wideouts in routes run per team dropback (RTE% - 91.5%), 4th in air yards (1081 yards), has 9 End-Zone targets, is 5th in 1st Read % (38.2%), and 4th in 1st Downs (43). The biggest upside associated with Diggs is his remaining matchup schedule: in weeks 12-17, the Bills face the Eagles, have a bye week, then face the Chiefs, the Cowboys, the Chargers, and end the fantasy season with the Patriots. Weeks 12-16 are all matchups with ‘shootout’ potential, which could lead to massive usage for Stefon Diggs. The week 17 revenge match with the Patriots could be perfect for fantasy managers looking for a blowup game from Diggs in their championships. With dynasty rankings that range from WR8 on FantasyCalc and WR13 on KeepTradeCut, Diggs is arguably the safest and most attainable elite WR.

Brandon Aiyuk - A tier below, but carrying a huge upside, is our 15th-ranked WR. Brandon Aiyuk over the first 10 weeks of the season has the 4th highest aDOT (15 yards), the 2nd best yards per route run (3.48), and the 3rd best fantasy points per route run (0.64). Aiyuk’s numbers have slightly dipped over the last five weeks, but outside of week 16 versus Baltimore, our analysts project plus-matchups for the rest of the season for Aiyuk (@SEA, @PHI, SEA, @ARI, BAL, @WAS). At WR14 prices on KTC and WR22 on FantasyCalc, Aiyuk is ideal for any manager wanting to be boujee on a budget. 

Michael Pittman - Rounding out our priority targets is our 10th-ranked WR. Michael Pittman since week 6 has been number one in RTE% (93.7%), 4th in YAC (172 yds), and tied for 1st in the league in targets that come on design read plays (10). Pittman’s QB and rest-of-season schedule is what ultimately pushes him to third on our priority target rankings, but at WR17 prices on FantasyCalc and WR21 rankings on KTC, he is far outperforming his dynasty ranking. 

Honorable Mention - Davante Adams, 11th place rank: #1 in TGT% (30.3%), #2 in TPRR (0.31), #3 in 1stRead% (41.1%). QB play hard to bank on during this critical stage of the szn.

Secondary Targets - A Mid-Low 2nd and up to 2x 2nds in Value

Keenan Allen - At age 31, Keenan Allen is having arguably the best season of his great career as our 3rd-ranked WR in 2023. The only reason Allen is a secondary target and not a primary is solely because of his age and the large value risk that would befall any manager if Keenan were to suffer a significant injury. Since week 1, Allen is 3rd in TGT% (29.7%), 4th in TPRR (0.3), 4th in 1stRead% (38.6%), 2nd in PPR fantasy points per game (22.8 pts), and 3rd in Expected Fantasy Points per Game (20.4 pts). In addition to Allen’s age is the downside of the Charger’s remaining schedule, which will all prove to be difficult matchups. Keenan Allen managers will likely demand a 1st round pick for Allen’s production, but at WR19 prices on FantasyCalc and WR25 ranking on KTC, it may be feasible to acquire Allen from a desperate seller at cheaper prices. 

Mike Evans - As the 14th-best WR in our rankings, Mike Evans has remained one of the agency’s top targets all season long given his inexpensive value. Evans’ metrics do not jump off the page in any singular category, but instead, he ranks within the top 12-24 in nearly every major category, making him the perfect ‘under-the-radar’ league winner. In the same vein as Keenan Allen, the downside of Evans is his age and difficult remaining matchup schedule. The upside of the WR27 on FantasyCalc & WR33 on KTC resides with his consistency, talent, and QB Baker Mayfield’s affinity with throwing Evans targets while in the red zone.  

Courtland Sutton - As our 34th WR, Courtland Sutton is our lowest-ranked WR for this bulletin, but still worthy of consideration. Since week 6, Sutton is 3rd amongst wideouts in terms of air yard share (47%), is posting a respectable 26.3 TGT% (15th), and is 9th in FP/RR (0.61). And outside of their week 12 matchup with Cleveland, the rest of the season schedule for the Broncos is one of the most appealing in the league for a team that is on a 4-game win streak. As the WR39 on FantasyCalc and WR52 on KTC, Sutton and his QB Russell Wilson are performing far beyond the public sentiment. 

DeAndre Hopkins - The trend of older vet WRs continues with the 20th-ranked DeAndre Hopkins. Since week 6, the seasoned WR is 1st in aDOT (17.5 yds), 10th in YAC/REC (6.17 yds), and since week 1 is 6th in air yards (1068 yds), and 9th in expected fantasy points per route run (0.53). Like his peer counterparts Keenan Allen and Adam Thielen, Hopkins is uniquely situated as the only reliable pass-catcher on their respective teams. With a moderate rest-of-season schedule and a rookie QB, Hopkins is a mixed-bag of upside potential, but at WR48 rankings on FantasyCalc & KTC, he’s one of the cheapest assets in his tier.

Honorable Mention - Diontae Johnson, 18th place rank: since week 6 = 9th in RTE% (89.6%), 4th in AY Share (46.6%), and 5th in expected FP/G (17.7pts). Pickett and Canada are a gruesome twosome that I would prefer to not hinge my championship hopes on. 

Backup Targets - Up to 2x 3rds in Value

Adam Thielen - A perfect storm of opportunity has formed for the 33-year-old WR. The 22nd ranked WR in our data, Adam Thielen since week 1 is 9th in RTE% (88.5%), 9th in FP/G (17.8 pts), 9th in 1stDowns (38), 12th in YAC (260 yds), 13th in expected FP/G (16.6pts), and 16th in TGT% (24.6%). Given how poor the QB play has been in Carolina, it doesn’t particularly matter how favorable the rest of the season schedule is for the Panthers WRs. As the WR 41 on FantasyCalc and WR58 on KTC, it may be possible to once again acquire Thielen at the price of multiple third-round picks if he is still residing on a rebuilding team.

Odell Beckham - The 40th-ranked WR in our data, Odell Beckham has come on strong over the last few weeks of play. Since week 6, Beckham is 3rd in YAC/REC (7.88 yds), 3rd in Endzone Tgts (5), 3rd in expected FP/RR (0.63), 6th in YPRR (2.92 yds), 8th in TPRR (0.3 tgts), 11th in FP/RR (0.57 pts), 13th in aDOT (13 yds), and 22nd in air yards (389 yds). Odell Beckham has a favorable rest-of-season schedule, with multiple potential ‘shootout’ matchups. As the WR53 on FantasyCalc and the WR98 on KTC, pray that your potential trade partner only uses KTC to gauge the dynasty market and acquire OBJ for dirt cheap.  

Unique Scenario - If the first target cannot be acquired, move on to the teammate

DK Metcalf & Tyler Lockett - Seattle’s WRs are all heating up in time for the fantasy playoffs thanks to improved play from Geno Smith. If Geno can deliver clutch QB play in some upcoming prime matchups, both DK Metcalf (WR16 ranking) and Tyler Lockett (WR24) could take off. Since week 6, Metcalf & Lockett are 8th & 14th in air yards respectively, 9th & 23rd in aDOT, 16th & 26th in TGT%, and 10th & 20th in expected FP/G. DK by himself is 1st in Endzone targets (6) and 9th in YAC/REC (6.29 yds). At WR14 FantasyCalc values and WR17 KTC rankings, Metcalf will likely demand a 1st + 2nd, whereas Lockett will likely only cost a 2nd at his WR46 FantasyCalc & WR49 KTC values.  

Nathaniel Dell & Noah Brown - If the pair in Seattle are heating up, then the Houston Duo is on fire. Nathaniel “Tank” Dell (WR17 ranking) and Noah Brown (WR25) have both been elevated by the MVP-caliber play of C.J. Stroud. Since week 6, Tank Dell and Noah Brown rank 2nd & 11th in aDOT respectively and 6th & 11th in fantasy points/G. Dell by himself is 13th in RTE% (87.6%), 16th in air yards (447 yards), 10th TGT% (27.6%), 11th in TPRR (0.29 tgts), and 7th in 1stRead% (36.1%). Brown is 1st in YPRR (4.03 yds) and 2nd YAC/REC (9.22 yds). At WR20/26 values on KTC/FantasyCalc, Dell will cost anywhere from 2x 2nds to as much as a 1st-round pick. Brown on the other hand will only cost multiple 3rd round picks at WR55/64 prices on FantasyCalc/KTC. 

Waiver Targets

Spymaster Vanek will provide the latest intel through his America’s Game report. In terms of FAAB bidding, review your league’s previous waiver behavior to navigate the wire best. The waiver wire will become more bare as the season continues, especially in best ball formats.

• Jake Browning - 8% rostership, spend up to 25-50% FAAB (Burrow out ROS, Browning carries some upside as a competent backup)

• Tim Boyle/Joe Flacco - 10% rostership, spend up to 5% FAAB (If you miss out on acquiring Browning this week and Tommy DeVito from last week, then cautiously go after Boyle/Flacco). 

• Ty Johnson - 3% rostership, 1% FAAB (Bills still haven’t utilized Fournette, but they also remain as arguably the worst rushing team in the league.)