Week 10 Dossier
Show of Force
Enemies of the League
At this stage of the season, you can no longer view your league mates as friendly competitors all striving towards similar goals. There are allies, who will help you achieve your mission, and there are enemies who wish to destroy your goals. The highest-level threat known to the agency is the Asset Trafficker. These individuals specialize in the illicit trade of both high-value players and the stockpiling of draft picks. Their smuggling business includes leveraging early-projected draft picks, elite QBs, young WRs, bell-cow RBs, and ultra-productive TEs. Early after a league’s inception, these individuals will own up to half of the high-value draft picks heading into the off-season after the first dynasty championship. In the first year, they have built a network of relationships in which they have supplied the contenders with the “valuable” players they needed for their championship run. But in actuality, the contenders who fail to reach their ultimate goal now find themselves in the pocket of these Asset Traffickers who now own their entire future of draft picks. The most dangerous Asset Trafficker is the manager who not only stockpiles assets but also information. These individuals are known as Dynasty Lords.
These Dynasty Lords keep detailed records of every manager, and their strengths at each roster position. But most importantly, these individuals understand what their league mates desire. These league kingpins understand the market and aren’t afraid to make dangerous decisions in their pursuit of complete control. There are rumors that some of these Dynasty Lord’s surveillance is so encompassing, that they can see every trade executed by a manager, regardless if they are in league with them or not. There will be managers with a contender mentality who wish to police these types of individuals and limit their reach of influence. But the Dynasty Lord knows every one of their league mate's weaknesses. They will whisper doubt in the minds of their competitors. And lastly, they will continue to offer the promise of prosperity to their league mates if they continue to align with the Dynasty Lord’s goals. Anyone who doesn’t wish to accept these deals is met with terrible consequences. Usage Activity
The usage of a player is one of the most critical pieces of intel that we can use to our advantage. Here are some points of interest worth considering:
Panthers vs. Bears - Since week 7, D’Onta Foreman has been 4th amongst all RBs in rushing attempts (66), yards (286), and rushing TDs (3). However, in weeks 2-5, in which Khalil Herbert received the lion's share of opportunities as the starter, Foreman was a healthy scratch. It remains to be seen what Forman’s opportunities will be once Herbert and Justin Fields return.
Nothing further to report for the Panthers.
Colts vs. Patriots - Jonathan Taylor has full command of the Colts backfield, receiving 88% of the snaps and 23 carries (both season-highs for Taylor). Meanwhile, Zack Moss only received 1 carry on 16% of the snaps.
Since leading Patriots receiver Kendrick Bourne tore his ACL in Week 8 versus the Dolphins, Demario Douglas has led his team the past 2 weeks with 65 routes (Hunter Henry is 2nd w/ 59 routes), 16 targets (Hunter Henry is 2nd w/ 11 tgts), 139 receiving yards (Hunter Henry and JuJu Smith-Schuster are both for 2nd w/ 60 yds), 2.14 yards per route run (Smith-Schuster is 2nd w/ 1.36 YPRR), and 98 yards after the catch (Smith-Schuster is 2nd w/ 26 YAC).
Texans vs. Bengals - After missing weeks 5 & 10 due to injury, and not registering a single yard in week 1, Tee Higgins has fallen behind Tyler Boyd in targets (50 - Higgins, 59 - Boyd), receptions (Higgins - 27, Boyd - 44), receiving yards (Higgins - 328, Boyd - 417), and YAC (Higgins - 118, Boyd - 186). However, despite these missed opportunities, Higgins has a higher aDOT than Boyd (Higgins - 11.3, Boyd - 7.3), air yards share (Higgins - 35.6%, Boyd - 19.2%), target percentage (Higgins - 19%, Boyd - 16.9%), targets per route run (Higgins - 0.23, Boyd - 0.18), yards per route run (Higgins - 1.54, Boyd -1.30), and is right behind Boyd in PPR Fantasy Points/G (Higgins - 10.3, Boyd - 10.9). All three of the primary Bengals WRs figure to remain strong considerations in all league formats whereas Trenton Irwin, Andrei Iosivas, and Charlie Jones (who is now back from IR) all carry value in deep best-ball formats.
Since returning from injury in week 6, Noah Brown has received 56%, 72%, 72%, and 75% of the snaps in his four latest contests, 24 total targets, 18 total catches, 419 total yards (leads the team over this span - Schultz 2nd w/ 267 yards), and 1 TD. Noah Brown, Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Dalton Schultz are all viable fantasy options in this high-volume & efficient offense. Robert Woods and John Metchie appear to have taken a backseat to their more explosive teammates.
Saints vs. Vikings - Through 10 games, Alexander Mattison has 130 carries (12th in NFL), 461 rushing yards (23rd in NFL), 3.5 yards per carry (37th amongst RBs with a minimum of 50 carries), and 0 rushing TDs. Mattison’s receiving metrics are slightly better than his rushing production with 36 targets (9th amongst RBs), 24 targets (18th), 164 receiving yards (21st), and 3 receiving TDs (2nd-tied). After Mattison exited with a concussion, Ty Chandler took over the lead back duties and led the team with 15 rushing attempts for 45 rushing yards and 1 TD. In the high likelihood that Mattison is forced to his next game, Chandler will look to greatly benefit as the lead back in his sensational matchup against the league-worst Denver Broncos rush defense.
Nothing further to report for the Saints.
Falcons vs. Cardinals - Since taking over the starting TE role in week 8 for the injured Zach Ertz, Trey McBride is 2nd amongst all TEs with 28 targets, tied for 2nd with 21 receptions, 3rd with 248 receiving yards, 4th in air yards share with 34.5%, and 5th with 103 YAC.
The petitions to feature Bijan Robinson as the focal point of this subpar Falcons offense were finally heard - Robinson received a career-high 22 carries, which he turned into 95 rushing yards and 1 TD. He has yet to produce the “blow-up” game everyone has been waiting to see from the talented prospect and has only had one complete game (week 2) in which he produced through the ground and the air. FM 10-01 Threat Assessment Report and Tactics
Agency Headquarters
Department of Intelligence & Field Operations
November 2023
The purpose of this Field Manual is to provide Field Agents with the necessary guidelines for enhancing the position of their league station. Standard Field Operations Protocol dictates that before any field operation takes place, there must be an assessment of the league’s “Show of Force.” An inventory of your arsenal of assets, the strengths and weaknesses of your major competitors, and trades with potential allies is critical in every championship campaign. The agency’s greatest resources in evaluating a league’s Show of Force are the various WoRP Capabilities. A summary of WoRP can be found in the second publication of this agency, Underdog Drafts - In The Mouth of Madness. Review the following Field Manual carefully:
Chapter 1. Preliminary Measures - The first step in conducting a threat assessment is gaining security clearance to the intel necessary for this report (https://www.southharmonff.com/worp). The WoRP Worshipper Resources contain both the “WoRP” & “Simulator” tools necessary to conduct this assessment.
Section I. League Simulator - Using the League Simulator tool developed by Dr. Koopa, Director of the Mind Flayer Project, establishes a baseline of the hierarchy of fantasy strength in your league. If you operate in multiple leagues, begin your assessment with your strongest roster amongst your stations using the “Wins” column of the League Simulator. Devoting your initial resources to the strongest rosters is the best use of your time as a contender. Other considerations for which leagues to focus on include the roster(s) most in need of QB help in SF leagues - QB is the highest priority in these league types & nothing else can succeed until your signal-callers are secured. 
Section II. WoRP Calculator - Use the following parameters to operate the WoRP Calculator. If operating in a Best Ball league, use the “True WoRP Table” function. If operating in a Lineup league, use the “Adjusted WoRP Table.” Set the “Roster Efficiency” to “High.” Then run the program using the “Calculate WoRP” function. Once the data has been collected, use the “Download” function located below the list of assets.
Chapter 2. Filtering the Data - Once the data has been downloaded, open the file using a spreadsheet application to view the intel. It is not necessary, but best practices would dictate deleting the “Team” & “Games” columns so that the most pertinent data for this report is easily viewable.Copy the remaining “Rank, Name, WoRP, WoRP/G, Position, PosRank” headers and paste the categories three times in the cells adjacent to the original columns of data as pictured below. Each of these four sections of category headers will correspond to a different position (QB, RB, WR, TE).
Highlight the original category headers containing the player data, navigate to the “Sort & FIlter” tools, then the “Filter” function.
First, using the “WoRP/G” filter, sort “Largest to Smallest.” Second, using the “Position” filter, sort “Z to A.”
After the data has been sorted, highlight all of the cells associated with each position as pictured below, use the “cut” function, then paste your selected position under one of the vacant category headers you created earlier.
Once you have completed this task for each position, your spreadsheet should appear like below.
Once you have completed this task for each position, your spreadsheet should appear like below.At this stage, one can now delete the “Position” columns for each of the player positions to further simplify the viewing of the data.
Chapter 3. Show of Force - After the data has been filtered and cleaned up for use, Field Agents can now begin taking a detailed inventory of their own, their major competitors, and their potential allies’ assets. 
Section I. Self Assessment - Beginning with your own roster, highlight each of your player assets in green as pictured above.
Section II. Threat Assessment - Using the League Simulator, League Standings, and your own judgment, rank your top three competitors in the league. Beginning with the roster of your largest threat, highlight each of their players in the darkest shade of red. Highlight the players of your secondary and tertiary threats, each with their own shade of red.
Section III. Potential Allies - An inverse of the Threat Assessment is gauging the players that are potentially available via trade who can improve your arsenal. Highlight in blue the players of managers who are actively tanking or are the most amendable to trading. It is essential to target the players who will either provide positional superiority or valuable depth. Do not waste resources in targeting players who rank below your threshold players (aka: Replacement Players - the players who are at the top of your bench and do not consistently make your lineup).
Section IV. Optimal Roster Construction - In the pursuit of the ideal roster, the “Roster Construction” function will help Field Agents further in identifying trade targets to address deficits in the roster & positions of excess that can be cut or traded away. Highlighted in Yellow above for each position is the number of players rostered followed by the optimal roster construction of that position.
Chapter 4. Conclusion - The Threat Assessment Report is an unbiased and powerful method to measure the strengths and weaknesses of the various players in your league. Use it to identify the best course of action and execute it.Waiver Targets
Spymaster Vanek will provide the latest intel through his America’s Game report. In terms of FAAB bidding, review your league’s previous waiver behavior to navigate the wire best. The waiver wire will become more bare as the season continues, especially in best ball formats.Tanner Hudson - 7.1% rostership, spend up to 0% FAAB (Has been Burrow’s preferred TE target the last 2 weeks)A.T. Perry - 49.7% rostership, 0% FAAB (upside rookie profile, could see more snaps if Michael Thomas misses time w/ injury)
