Week 9 Dossier
Nothing Left To Chance
Privileged Info
You’re walking the winding brick path by the river, needing to clear your head of the chaos back at the agency. As you stare out at the yellow glow of the street lamps reflecting off the pitch-black water, your phone vibrates. “Can you meet? Harbor Hotel. Rm 507. 30 minutes.” There is never a time for rest at this point in the season. You quickly dart through the side streets and alleys to make sure you aren’t being tailed - can’t afford to blow the cover of your best informant. You take one last look down the hall before you knock on the door, ‘507’ displayed in bold brass. “It’s me,” you mumble. The door swings open and you walk over to the table covered with glossy photos and stapled documents. “The league has certainly been busy with all of these recent trades. A lot of panic with injuries. But that’s not why you interrupted my late-night stroll, is it?” The informant smiles and shakes his head. Opening up his jacket, the informant pulls out a pen and begins to unscrew the barrel. Tucked inside, the informant pulls out a tiny scroll of paper and hands it to you. You read the four names quickly before you pocket the paper. “This can be pretty massive, are you sure about this?” The informant replies “It’s reliable. Those assets can turn the tide.” You twist the doorknob to leave and say “I’ll stay in touch.”Usage Activity
A player’s usage can have massive implications for how we attack the season. Here are some points of interest worth monitoring:
Titans vs. Steelers - Since week 5, both DeAndre Hopkins and Diontae Johnson rank inside the top 12 in fantasy points per game at 17.6 and 17.1 respectively. Over that same span, Hopkins has been 3rd in average depth of target (16.5), Diontae is 7th in target share (29.6%), tied for 11th in targets per route run (0.30), 9th in 1st-read percentage (36.9%), and both rank in the top 10 in air yards share (Hopkins - 45.8%, Johnson - 44.2%). However, Brett Kollmann’s recent breakdown of the Steeler’s offense will give pause to anyone considering a piece of it.
Vikings vs. Falcons - Fear of the fallout from Kirk Cousin’s injury quickly subsided following Joshua Dobbs’ thrilling debut as the Vikings’ QB. Like a player with no country, the mercenary signal-caller quickly got to work, going 20/30 for 158 yards passing, and 2 TDs, with an additional 7 carries for 66 yards on the ground and 1 rushing TD. T.J. Hockenson stands to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of Dobb’s arrival: Hockenson led his team in targets (12), receptions (7), and yards (69) in week 9. In weeks 6-9, Minnesota has been 2nd in the league in TE Fantasy Usage (16.1 expected fantasy points - stat courtesy Hayden Winks, Underdog).
The fantasy atrocities continue in Atlanta, in particular with Bijan Robinson, who on average is receiving 11.13 carries & 5.13 targets a game (not including week 7’s one-touch game). Robinson has 13 Red Zone touches so far this season (32nd amongst RBs).
Seahawks vs. Ravens - Gus Edwards has scored 6 TDs over the past 3 games, the most of any RB over that span. His 7 total TDs are behind only Raheem Mostert (11) and Christian McCaffrey (9). Though he did score twice in week 9, Gus only received 5 carries and 18% of the snaps in this matchup. That was due in large part to Keaton Mitchell’s impressive performance: 9 carries for 138 rushing yards and 1 TD on 18% of the snaps. Mitchell is now only behind De’Von Achane with a 93.0 PFF Run Grade. For reasons unknown, Justice Hill led the backfield in snap percentage (63%) and carries (13) versus the Seahawks.
Too many high-value picks were sacrificed needlessly over the off-season to acquire the services of Geno Smith, who now barely qualifies as QB 2 in fantasy. Jaxon Smith-Njigba continues to make strides - 6/7 for 63 yards on an 82% snap share (the highest snap% so far this season). Given Geno’s disappointing season and competition for touches with D.K. Metcalf & Tyler Lockett, Smith-Njigba remains a prime “sell” piece on any contender.
Rams vs. Packers - In his likely most healthy game since week 1, Aaron Jones dominated the backfield with 20 carries for 73 rushing yards and 1 TD, with an additional 4/6 for 26 yards through the air on 57% of the snaps (the highest % all season). Aaron Jones remains one of the highest-upside RB 2s for the rest of the season if he receives this type of usage moving forward.
With Carson Wentz now entering the playing arena for the Rams, there is hope contenders will not need to liquidate their Cooper Kupp or Puka Nacua shares to secure a title.
Buccaneers vs. Texans - C.J. Stroud’s 30/42 for 470 yards and 5 TDs is the greatest rookie QB performance this agency has ever witnessed. Stroud is already being ranked as the QB 7 on KTC and the QB 9 on FantasyCalc. Without an elite pass-catcher or run game to take the pressure off the young signal-caller, there is no QB in the league playing better with the cards dealt to him. Dalton Schultz and Tank Dell were the primary targets of Stroud: Schults - 10/11, 130 yards, 1 TD. Dell - 6/11, 114 yards, 2 TDs. Schultz is currently 2nd amongst TEs in Fantasy Points/G (16.5), 3rd in target share (24.2%), tied for 1st in Targets Per Route Run (0.32), 3rd in Yards Per Route Run (2.72), and tied for 3rd with 10 red zone targets.
Rachaad White and Cade Otton also enjoyed career-best days in this matchup: White - 20 attempts for 73 rushing yards plus 2 TDs, with 4/4 for 46 receiving yards on 80% snap share (good enough for RB1 of the week), Otton - 6/9 for 70 receiving yards plus 2 TDs on 100% of the snaps (TE3 of the week).Agency Bulletin
The following assets of interest are in various considerations for your Rest-Of-Season Mission. Elite assets will not be included in this report given their formidable prices. The data used does not include week 9 and the WoRP values are based upon 12 teams, start 11, 30-player rosters, 6 pts per Passing TD, and Lineup leagues. Do not engage in a trade until the following intel & parameters have been carefully reviewed:
The South Harmon Agency - Security Clearance will dictate access to this agency’s intel, but South Harmon operations are conducted on a daily basis with the objective of disrupting the fantasy space. Enroll in their academy as a recruit on Discord to gain access to their resources and train to become a top-tier fantasy operator. https://www.patreon.com/SouthHarmon
WoRP - Scoring settings & team needs will dictate which assets to pursue. WoRP is a valuable resource in not only establishing priority targets but also secondary and backup options if necessary. This resource can only be accessed through: https://www.southharmonff.com/worp
Managers to Target - Begin negotiations with managers who are on the opposite side of the standings. If your roster is rebuilding, prioritize trading with teams in the middle who are desperate to contend & whose picks have higher upside. Managers at the bottom of the standings will become more eager to trade away their players to acquire picks as the season progresses. If your roster is in the middle, negotiate with other middling teams - if you are unable to acquire players to contend, then adapt & pursue the other direction with acquiring picks.
Scouting Weeks 12-17 - Prioritize the players with the best matchups during the most critical stage of the season.
FantasyCalc/KeepTradeCut - Where an asset ranks in the field ultimately determines its value. Dynasty Rankings and The Trade Database (which lists the most recent acquisitions of the asset of interest) are invaluable resources in leveraging suitable deals.
The Weekly Dossier - This classified document carefully lays out weekly reports and directives based on intelligence compiled from the most advanced agencies in the field (NFL, NextGenStats, ESPN, PFF, FantasyPros, FantasyLife, PlayerProfiler, Underdog).QB
Tua Tagovailoa - Field Commander Tua Tagovailoa ranks in the top 5 in 9 out of the 15 major categories our agency uses to evaluate QBs (the next closest QB is Josh Allen with 8/15 categories). This includes the best in the league at adjusted yards per attempt (9.3), big-time throw percentage (7.1%), PFF Grade (90.2), Supporting Cast (77.25), and QBR (108.8). The 5th best WoRP QB this season, Tua is playing well above his 8th most valuable dynasty QB ranking on FantasyCalc and 9th place ranking on KeepTradeCut. But perhaps the most intriguing aspect of Tua is pairing his services with the best player in all of fantasy this year to create the most lethal combination, Tyreek Hill (& De’Von Achane). Miami has a difficult rest-of-season schedule, but our analysts anticipate several shoot-outs to take place over the fantasy playoffs. Coming off one of his worst performances of the season and heading into a bye-week, sending 2x 1st-round + 2x 2nd-round picks worth of value and up to 3x 1st-round picks is merited in acquiring the young QB’s elite talent.
Jared Goff - Represents the most ideal QB 2 in SF leagues. Goff is tied for the 3rd highest pass attempts in the league (36.57/G) and has the 2nd highest adjusted completion percentage (80.4%). His volume of passes makes his 1.8% turnover-worthy plays that much more impressive with how little he puts the ball in harm's way (2nd best in the NFL). The Lions have surrounded Goff with one of the best ensembles of talent in the league (2nd only to Miami), including arguably the best positional trio in the league - St. Brown, LaPorta, and Gibbs. Detroit’s rest-of-season schedule is one of the best for any QB in fantasy (Starting in wk-12: GB, @NO, @CHI, DEN, @MIN, @DAL). The 8th best WoRP QB this season, Goff is outperforming his 16th most valuable dynasty QB ranking on FantasyCalc and 15th place ranking on KeepTradeCut. Coming off of his bye-week, be confident in sending up to a 1st-round + 2nd-round pick for the stability & upside of Jared Goff. 
Russell Wilson - A Public Enemy the past two seasons, Russell Wilson has far outperformed his dynasty perception. His 79% adjusted completion percentage and 101.7 QBR are amongst the best scores in the league. The Broncos' rest-of-season schedule is one of the more favorable through the fantasy playoffs (starting in wk-13: @HOU, @LAC, @DET, NE, LAC). The 10th best WoRP QB this season, Wilson is playing beyond his 21st most valuable dynasty QB ranking on FantasyCalc and 25th place ranking on KeepTradeCut. Coming off of his bye-week, be confident in sending up to a 1st-round round pick and riding with Russell Wilson as your QB 2.
Baker Mayfield - Unremarkable in nearly every major category, Baker Mayfield flies under the radar as the perfect QB 3 with a sneaky upside. At 35.14 pass attempts/G (11th in NFL) and 0.55 neutral pass rate (7th), Mayfield receives plenty of opportunities to operate within the 5th-best offensive ensemble in the league. The Mayfield and Mike Evans stack is perhaps the best value stack in fantasy this year. The Buccaneers' rest-of-season schedule is far from intimidating (@IND, CAR, @ATL, @GB, JAX, NO). As the 18th-best WoRP QB and not costing more than an early 2nd, Mayfield is the perfect tier-down candidate and insurance policy heading into the playoffs considering his QB23 price on KTC and QB27 ranking on FantasyCalc.Waiver Targets
Spymaster Vanek will provide the latest intel through his America’s Game report. In terms of FAAB bidding, review your league’s previous waiver behavior to navigate the wire best. The waiver wire will become more bare as the season continues, especially in best ball formats.Carson Wentz - 12% rostership, up to 10% FAAB (could fill in on dynamic, McVay-led offense)Noah Brown - 35% rostership, 3-5% FAAB (better for best ball)Kyle Philips - 24% rostership, spend up to 1% FAAB (will compete as the 2nd receiving option behind Hopkins week-to-week)Khadarel Hodge - 4% rostership, 1% FAAB (a decent BB option with London & Hollins banged up)Ty Chandler - 38% rostership, 0-1% FAAB (now the primary backup with Akers done)
