Week 1 Dossier

Pressed Back Into Action

Reporting for Duty

Welcome back. We thought you were dead. I trust that your time away was used wisely and wasn’t wasted away on a beach drinking endless Mai Tai’s. The season has officially begun, so we don’t have much time. You will immediately be reinstated into Active Service. Report to Field Surveillance to begin your briefing.

Field Surveillance

Beginning with what I observed from the opening weekend of NFL games, there are a few key takeaways that could impact the success of our fantasy seasons:

Defense & Running Game - The common theme in every outstanding performance or upset this week was dominant defenses that created turnovers. Through Week 1, the most intimidating defenses belong to the Dallas Cowboys (held NYG to 63 pass yds), the Cleveland Browns (held CIN to 142 total yds), the Los Angeles Rams (the biggest upset of Wk 1), and the San Francisco 49ers. Their Herculean performances led to the biggest blowouts we saw from this past weekend. These defenses are going to supply a rich amount of opportunities for their own offenses to put up ridiculous numbers in 2023.

Despite prevailing reports that running backs were either killed or MIA over the last few seasons, we can now confirm that many of these established defenses have allied themselves with prominent running games that can control the flow of contests. The Browns, Rams, Chargers, Jaguars, Lions, and 49ers all made their presence known through their ground assault (34+ attempts), which in turn led to positive outcomes for their passing attacks as well. These are only the preliminary findings through the limited sample we have, but it is generally recommended to acquire assets on teams that have command in the trenches.

Usage Activity

The usage of a player is one of the most critical pieces of intel that we can use to our advantage. Here are some points of interest worth considering:

Rams vs. Seahawks - Kyren Williams out-snapped Cam Akers 53 to 28 (65% vs. 35% snap share), but Cam still out-touched Kyren with 22 and 15 carries respectively. Those 22 carries for Akers amounted to only 23 yards - arguably the worst rushing performance of the entire weekend. Puka Nacua had arguably the best performance of any rookie in week 1, tying Tyreek Hill with a league-high 15 targets on a 78% snap share. Kenneth Walker, DK Metcalf, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba were all tied in the team-high targets at five each, with Tyler Lockett trailing closely behind with four targets.

Eagles vs. Patriots - Kendrick Bourne led all New England playmakers in snap percentage (91%) and targets (11), while Rhamondre Stevenson led the team in total touches with 18 (12 carries, 6 catches on 73% snap share). Ezekiel Elliot tied Roschon Johnson with a league-high 7 targets in the passing game. Kenneth Gainwell out-snapped D’Andre Swift 62% to 29% and out-touched him 18 to 2. 

Dolphins vs. Chargers - The Los Angeles ground attack was equally distributed between Austin Ekeler and Joshua Kelley at 51% & 48% snap share respectively and 16 carries each. The Cheetah is still the fastest animal in the NFL Kingdom, registering the two fastest plays from week 1 with a 21.66 mph 47 yd play and a 21.52 mph 35 yd touchdown.

Raiders vs. Broncos - Jakobi Meyers played 80% of the offensive snaps as the #2 WR behind Adams, well ahead of Hunter Renfrow’s 22% snap share. There is nothing to report on the Denver front. 

Packers vs. Bears - Roschon Johnson did not receive a touch until the 3rd quarter but led the three-headed committee with a 39% snap-share compared to Khalil’s 36% and D’Onta Foreman’s 28% share. Despite being 28 years old, Aaron Jones is still one of the best RBs in the league, posting the best fantasy performance at the position for week 1 and registering the third-fastest play behind only Tyreek Hill with his 21.48 mph 35 yd TD reception.

Cardinals vs. Commanders - Michael Wilson led all rookie WRs with a 90% snap share but registered only 2 catches on 4 targets. Brian Robinson continues to dominate Antonio Gibson in terms of touches (20 vs. 4) and snaps (61% vs. 35%).

I49ers vs. Steelers - Pittsburgh only attempted 9 total rushes with their RBs - it’s safe to say that being down 17-0 shortly after the beginning of the second quarter and going up against a nasty 49ers D-line forced the Steelers to abandon the run early. Brock Purdy posted the best QBR of week 1 at 91.3 (only slightly ahead of Matthew Stafford & Tua Tagovailoa).

Titans vs. Saints - Derrick Henry was out-snapped by backup Tyjae Spears 48% to 54% respectively, but in a similar fashion as Akers and Kyren with the Rams, Henry out-touched Spears 17 to 3. Ryan Tannehill recorded the worst passer rating of any QB in week 1 and should be deemed a threat to any playmaker production, but must be preserved as Tennessee’s Puppet QB over the far more disastrous backup options.

Jaguars vs. Colts - Travis Etienne was allotted the lion’s share of the running game with an 80% snap share and 23 touches (18 carries, 5 catches). Meanwhile, Deon Jackson gave Cam Akers a run for his money with one of the most abysmal performances in week 1 (14 rushing yds on 13 carries on a 71% snap share).

Bengals vs. Browns - In the battle for Ohio, Nick Chubb only played on 36 snaps (49% snap-share) but had 22 touches on the limited plays he saw, and led the Browns with 4 receptions. 

Texans vs. Ravens - Much will be made of Rashod Bateman’s limited usage (only 39% snap-share), but considering his injury history and recent foot procedure, it makes sense for the team to be cautious with their talented first-round pick. Their newest first-round pick selection is also very talented and commanded 9 receptions on 10 targets on an 84% snap share. Dameon Pierce did not enjoy the same type of performance, mustering 47 total yards on only 13 touches and a 45% snap-share.

Panthers vs. Falcons - The running game was the central attraction for both teams. Bijan Robinson led the Falcons RBs in snap-share at 63% (Tyler Allgeier had a 56% snap-share) but it was Allgeier who led the ground game in touches with 18 total (Bijan 16 total touches). There is a high level of suspicion that records of Desmond Ridder’s passing were Window-Dressed in order to deceive intelligence agencies that he had the second-highest Passer Rating from week 1 at 111.8 (behind Jordan Love’s 123.2 rating).

WoRP Arsenal

Before WoRP Technologies can be effectively utilized, 3-4 weeks of intel will be required to ensure greater mission success.

Waiver Targets

In terms of FAAB bidding, it’s best to review your league’s previous waiver behavior to best navigate the wire. 

• Joshua Kelley - 6.8% rostership, spend up to 10% FAAB (Ekeler’s status for week 2 unclear)

• Gus Edwards - 20.1% rostership, 5-6% FAAB (far more effective rusher over Justice Hill)

• Chuba Hubbard - 20.7% rostership, 5% FAAB

• Kyren Williams - 6.2% rostership, 4-5% FAAB

• Puka Nacua - 10.1% rostership, 10-15% FAAB

• Kendrick Bourne - 2% rostership, 3-4% FAAB (better for Best Ball)

• Rashid Shaheed - 12.6% rostership, 2-3% FAAB (only 54% snap share wk 1, better for BB)

• Josh Reynolds - 4.2% rostership, 0% FAAB (better for BB)

• Robert Woods - 9.1% rostership, 0% FAAB (better for BB)

• Allen Robinson - 4.6% rostership, 0% FAAB (led the team in receiving yds & tied for team-high snaps amongst PIT WRs at 89%, better for BB)

• Tutu Atwell - 6.5% rostership, 0% FAAB (hesitant to buy in just yet)

• River Cracraft - 0% rostership, 0% FAAB (better for BB)

• Hunter Henry - 7.3% rostership, 5% FAAB (don’t go on a wild TE chase)

• Hayden Hurst - 12.1% rostership, 4% FAAB

Double Agents

Do not trust the following assets:

• Kenneth Gainwell - 35.1% rostership - don’t buy the Swift propaganda

• Justice Hill - 0% rostership - the 2 TD provocateur will become a non-factor once Baltimore signs a new RB

Assets to Acquire

Given how early it is into our campaign, I advise caution and do not recommend trading away any 1st or 2nd round picks at this time:

• Jakobi Meyers - 2x 3rd rd picks or a 3rd + a player. I would wait another week or two before trading away a 2025 2nd. 

• Tyler Allgeier - 2x 3rd rd picks or a 3rd + a player. I would wait another week or two before trading away a 25 2nd.

• Joshua Kelley - 2x 4ths or a 3rd rd pick (start with a 25 3rd rd pick)