Week 2 Dossier

FUBAR

bRIEFING

Being comfortable with being uncomfortable is one of the major traits we ingrain in all of our agents. The injury report is a cruel reminder of how brutal this game is and highlights the importance of stockpiling draft picks and solid depth pieces to endure the 17-week season. Gather yourselves and prepare for week 3.

Field Surveillance

There are several reports coming in from our field agents regarding week 2 action. Please review the following intel carefully:

Bounce-Back QB Play - There were several reports that many of the QBs-of-interest had broken off contact & went missing during their week 1 operation. It did not take long for these players to resurface for their week 2 matchups - 8 of the top 12 QBs this week were QB 16 or worse last week. A number of factors could be at work in burying these players’ week 1 performance, but what is clear is the importance of remaining steadfast - QBs have the highest top 12 & 24 repeat rate amongst all positions since 2017 (60% Repeat Top 12, 69.17% Repeat Top 24). Knowing that these are high-value assets and the dire consequences that would befall any manager who suffers an injury at the position, it is essential to have the most vital depth in your league at QB. Unless another manager is willing to exceed the asking price for one of your QBs, it is advised to keep these players secure on your rosters until later on in the season.

Experienced WRs - This is a situation worth monitoring, but early reports suggest that several older veteran WRs may be vying to return to top 12 status for 2023 - namely Mike Evans & Keenan Allen. It would appear that opposing defenses underestimated the potency of these players, and these savvy WRs have taken advantage of their opportunities. However, at this time we would urge you to approach these assets with high discretion.  It is likely that NFL defenses will adapt and devote a more concerted effort to stopping these players in future matchups. Given the age of these players, their trade values are unlikely to climb too high during the fantasy season. The risk of injury is another factor to weigh carefully with these WRs. It is recommended to wait until the mid-point of the season or later to trade for either WR. 

Usage Activity

A player’s usage can have massive implications for how we attack the season. Here are some points of interest worth monitoring:

Vikings vs. Eagles - Kirk Cousins through 2 games has 708 yards passing, 6 TDs, & 1 int. Despite how encouraging this is for fantasy managers, we do not see this pace being maintained. The mounting injuries to the offensive line, the completely ineffective running game, and the growing frustration swirling around the 0-2 team could have detrimental consequences for Kirk and this offense over the course of this season. 
D’Andre Swift’s performance of 28 carries (2nd best of career) for 175 yards rushing (best of career) attests to the reliability of our counterintelligence capabilities and confirms reports that last week’s game was nothing more than disinformation. With that said, the Philadelphia Eagles are still searching for their identity on offense, but it should remain highly effective in 2023.     

Packers vs. Falcons - Desmond Ridder’s 19 of 32 for 237 yards passing with 1 TD & 1 Int, along with 39 yards & 1 TD on the ground, was the QB's best stat line of his career (6 games). Meanwhile, Drake London’s 6 catches for 67 yards & 1 TD was the 2nd/3rd best fantasy performance of the sophomore’s career depending on your league’s scoring format. The passing standard for the Atlanta Falcons is extremely low. 
There continue to be promising opportunities for rookie TE Luke Musgrave, who received an 88% snap share - the highest among rookie TEs. Would like to see more opportunities for his teammate Jayden Reed, who turned 8 targets into 4 catches for 37 yards and 2 TDs on a 56% snap share. Don’t look now but Jordan Love’s fantasy points have him in the top 5 through 2 weeks.

Raiders vs. Bills - James Cook accomplished the best game of his career with 123 yards rushing (17 attempts) and 36 yards receiving (4 catches on 4 targets) on a 59% snap share. However, it was Latavius Murray & Damien Harris who each enjoyed TDs on their 23% & 18% snap shares respectively. Josh Allen has averaged 109 rushing attempts for 617 yards over the first five years of his career - he currently has 43 yards on 9 attempts through 2 weeks. 
Josh Jacobs had -2 rushing yards on 9 attempts and Michael Mayer had 1 target for 1 catch for 2 yards on a 40% snap share. Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers are the only pieces worth owning until Aidan O’Connell takes over. 

Ravens vs. Bengals - Despite what the box score may indicate, the Ravens never wavered in their approach for this game. Gus Edwards remains the RB to own from this backfield, as recommended by our sources last week. However, it should be noted that despite a better performance from Gus (10 touches on 43% of snaps), Justice saw a higher snap share (57%) & number of touches (14 total). The Ravens are unlikely to make a splash at bringing in a flashy RB given their history, but their passing attack is dynamic given what each of their weapons brings to the table. It would be surprising if Baltimore traded for Cam Akers given their most recent experience with JK Dobbin’s injuries. 
Cincinnati is falling far short of being a strong Super Bowl contender with an air-raid offense - the only team that has passed for fewer yards is the Panthers. Put in another manner, the Bengals have passed for fewer yards than the Jets, Falcons, and Cardinals. If you are hearing this intel, then Operation “Tigers Can’t Change Their Stripes” is proving to be far more effective than we possibly imagined. Given the 2-week sample size, any take can be spun to great effect, including the fact that perceived powerhouse teams Dallas and Philadelphia (who no one is panicking about) have passed for only 94 & 59 more yards than Cincinnati respectively. Luckily, you all are highly-trained agents who won’t be compromised by such propaganda but instead, take full advantage of the situation to send out offers to acquire the elusive Joe Burrow/Ja’Marr Chase stack.     

Colts vs. Texans - Zack Moss saw 98% of the snaps - no other RB took a single snap for the Colts. He turned in a solid performance with 88 yards on the ground and 19 through the air, plus a TD. 
C.J. Stroud looked sharp with 384 yards passing on 30/47 attempts with 2 TDs. Nico Collins also erupted with 146 yards and a TD on 7 catches but only saw 62% of the snaps. This duo could prove to be one of the best value stacks for 2023. Dameon Pierce didn’t enjoy the same field day as his teammates - he saw only 45% of the snaps where he rushed for 31 yards on 15 attempts.

Chargers vs. Titans - Derrick Henry’s 25 rushing attempts eclipsed Ryan Tannehill’s 24 passes, which was tied with Jimmy Garoppolo as the lowest number of attempts for week 2. Both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams had 8 catches on 10 or more targets each. This was NOT an ideal matchup for waiver wire pickup Joshua Kelley, who only managed 39 scoreless yards against one of the toughest run defenses in the league. We may need to wait a while before we see much from rookie Quentin Johnston unfortunately.

Giants vs. Cardinals - Week 2 of the 2023 NFL Season was one hell of a week for a lot of players because Joshua Dobbs also achieved the best performance of his career with 228 yards passing, 41 yards running, and 2 total TDs. James Connor’s 23 rushing attempts were tied for the second most carries he’s handled since week 8 of 2019 (the only higher number of carries in that span was the 25 carries he saw in week 12 of 2022). 
Darren Waller led all Giants receivers in targets (8), snaps (90%) and was second in yards (76) behind Jalin Hyatt (89). Darius Slayton and Isaiah Hodgins were not far behind in snaps at 82% & 75% respectively. 

49ers vs. Rams - Is Kyren Williams the starting RB for the Rams? Apparently. Has Kyren looked like a better RB than Cam Akers through the first two weeks? I guess. Is Kyren a good RB who I want to acquire in Dynasty? Ask us again in a few weeks, but probably not. Running another RB into the trade block, commanding 95% of the snaps, and having heavy involvement in the passing game (6 catches on 10 targets for 48 yards) demands a close eye over the next few weeks. Matthew Stafford’s 93 passing attempts are the second most in the NFL through week 2, ahead of C.J. Stroud’s 91 attempts and behind Mac Jones’ 96 attempts. Last but not least, there is a rising power in the west that is perhaps the biggest point of interest so far in our young season - Puka Nacua. His targets (35), receptions (25), target share (39%), and yards after the catch (114 yards) all lead the league amongst WRs. He has the 5th highest PFF Grade at his position (85.0). All aboard the Puka train before it leaves the station.
Brandon Aiyuk, the highest-graded WR according to PFF (91.4), suffered a shoulder injury in this contest and will need to be monitored. 

Jets vs. Cowboys - Tony Pollard saw 32 total touches in this contest (25 carries, 7 catches) on 64% of the snaps. Breece Hall unfortunately only saw 4 touches on 34% of the snaps. Nothing else of consequence to report. 

Commanders vs. Broncos - It may not look pretty in Denver, but Russell Wilson is putting up fantasy points - 18/32 for 308 passing yards, 3 TDs, & 1 Int. He also led his team in rushing, with 56 yards on the ground. Marvin Mims turned 2 catches into 113 yards but is only seeing 24% of the snaps. Lauded off-season acquisition Samaje Perine had only 4 total touches in this game (1 carry, 3 catches). 
Brian Robinson was the RB #1 in most formats, with 18 carries for 87 yards 2 TDs on the ground, and 2 catches for 42 yards through the air. This was accomplished on a limited 52% snap share; Antonio Gibson had a 48% snap share and managed 53 yards on 5 touches. Jahan Dotson is not off to a great start, with only 8 catches on 12 targets for 62 yards through 2 weeks.

Dolphins vs. Patriots - We can’t explain why the Patriots are leading the league in pass attempts, but they are. New England is far from being awful on the ground - 3.5 yards per carry is good enough for 22nd in the NFL. This has led to a curious assortment of pass-catching weapons, with Devante Parker (100% snaps) and Hunter Henry (92% snaps) leading the Patriots with 6 catches each in week 2. Kendrick Bourne, Mike Gesicki, and Juju Smith-Schuster all saw their fair share of snaps and opportunities as well. 
Our agency is just as shocked as the rest of the watching world that the Dolphins only had 249 yards through the air - we thought for sure that Tua and Tyreek would combine for at least 500 yards every game for the rest of the season after seeing their performance last week. Raheem Mostert had the fastest play of week 2 - 21.62 MPH on his 43-yard rushing TD.

Waiver Targets

In terms of FAAB bidding, it’s best to review your league’s previous waiver behavior to best navigate the wire. 

• Jerome Ford - 17% rostership, spend up to 16-18% FAAB (now the lead back in Cleveland, which leads the NFL in rushing attempts)

• Tony Jones - 0% rostership, 0-1% FAAB (now the lead back in NO with no other healthy rushers on the roster outside of Taysom Hill)

• Eric Gray/Matt Brieda - 3% rostership, 0-1% FAAB (Gray is the better RB but Brieda will likely get the lion’s share of touches in week 3 while Saquon Barkley is hurt)

• Latavius Murray - 3% rostership, 0% FAAB (make a waiver claim in your large format Best Ball leagues). 

• Josh Reynolds - 22% rostership, 3-5% FAAB (back-to-back solid performances & should continue to see high snaps all season)

• Robert Woods - 16% rostership, 2-4% FAAB (we prefer Woods over Dell, but you likely won’t have to spend as much money on him given the extreme ageism in fantasy)

• Tank Dell - 21% rostership, 3-5% FAAB (7/10 for 72 yards & 1 TD on 79% snaps - should continue to see increased opportunities while Noah Brown is hurt).

• Jayden Reed - 20% rostership, 6-8% FAAB (he’s the best Packer WR while Christian Watson is hurt)

• Devante Parker - 7% rostership, 0-1% FAAB (decent bet to be the most productive Patriot WR in a high-pass offense)

• Zach Ertz - 16.7% rostership, 0% FAAB (leads all TEs with 18 targets)

• Cade Otton - 5% rostership, 0% FAAB (97% of snaps each of the last two weeks)

• Kyle Granson - 1.3% rostership, 0% FAAB (leads a TE room that is being hyper-targeted by Anthony Richardson)

Trade Assets

Unless you’re trading up to 2x 2nd-round picks for Puka Nacua, we strongly advise that you maintain your cover and lay low with your draft capital; it may be your only ticket out if your team becomes compromised with injuries.