Week 3 Dossier

Agent of Chaos

Briefing

Each week is another opportunity to gather critical intel, stay ahead of the opposition, and accumulate valuable resources. It will be difficult for untrained managers to remain disciplined in the face of a losing record and refrain from employing drastic counter-measures when they should remain resolved and undeterred. When in doubt, hold onto your draft capital until further instruction.

Field Surveillance

The following intel was gathered from our agents scattered abroad at multiple week 3 operations. Please review the following intel carefully:

Disappointing QB Play - Much discourse has been had around QBs, such as Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Dak Prescott, and Daniel Jones, who have all woefully underperformed with respect to where they were drafted by managers during the off-season. If spending a premium pick on these saboteurs wasn’t enough, they have also brought down all of the playmakers on their respective offenses as well. Panic and confusion have ensued and it is amidst the chaos that our agents of influence operate at their best. Take full advantage of this buy window by selling your over-performing QB 2/3 for an underperforming QB 1.   

Usage Activity

The usage of a player is a valuable piece of intel. Here are some points of interest worth considering: 

Colts vs. Ravens - Zay Flowers has 21 catches on 25 targets through the first 3 weeks of the season. However, he only ran 1 route that was 10+ yards downfield against the Colts; every other route was about 5 yards or less. Zay will likely overtake TE Mark Andrews as the top receiver in this offense; Mark needs to get more separation and neither receiver is being utilized well by OC Todd Monken.
Zack Moss has 48 carries since he took over as the lead RB for Indianapolis in week 2, which is tied with Tony Pollard for the most rushes during that span. Josh Downs played on 80% of the snaps in week 3 and is second on the team in both targets per route run at 20% (Michael Pittman 25%, Alec Pierce 10%) and targets at 24 (Pittman 34, Pierce 12).

Titans vs. Browns - Derrick Henry’s glory is fading further - his 3.2 yards per carry is one of the worst amongst RBs with a minimum of 30 carries (but still ahead of Rhamondre Stevenson 2.9 YPC, AJ Dillon 2.7, Dameon Pierce 2.5, & Josh Jacobs 2.4). Ryan Tannehill is challenging Justin Fields, Desmond Ridder, and Zach Wilson as the worst starting QB in the league. The Titans will not be able to feature Henry if their passing game is atrocious. We advise trading away DeAndre Hopkins before his cover is completely blown - hopefully, he was the only Titan you rostered.
Do not fall for the Jerome Ford 2 TD honey pot, who only managed 18 rushing yards on 10 carries and 56% snap share. He is likely tied up in a 3-way committee with Kareem Hunt and Pierre Strong moving forward. We don’t recommend spending a 2nd round pick to acquire Ford at this time.

Falcons vs. Lions - Kyle Pitts led his team in both targets (9) and receiving yards (41) on a 78% snap share in week 3; Jonnu Smith was right behind Pitts with 8 targets and 37 yards on a 72% snap share. 
We can confirm Sam LaPorta is indeed the TE1 of this class as our off-season reports suggested. LaPorta is second in TE targets (22) behind only TJ Hockenson (27) on a 74% snap share in week 3. The only TE’s with a higher PFF receiving grade are Will Mallory, Pharaoh Brown, Will Dissly, Josh Oliver, and Brycen Hopkins… so Sam LaPorta is essentially the highest-graded TE so far in 2023. Only 4 Lions were targeted in this game, the fewest number of players of any team in week 3. Jahmyr Gibbs handled the Lion’s share of RB carries with 17 (Goff - 5, Reynolds - 4) and was efficient (80 yds, 4.7 avg), but only managed 2 yards receiving on 1 catch from 2 targets. Gibb’s Red Zone touches, one of the most important elements commonly found in fantasy’s top RBs, will continue to limit his upside; he has 1 RZ touch through 3 weeks (52nd in NFL). The RB position is the most expendable asset in our line of work - trade the #3 RB in Dynasty for 2x 2024 1sts or a 1st that figures to be top 3 next year before David Montgomery returns. 

Saints vs. Packers - On his NFL regular season debut, Kendre Miller out-carried Tony Jones 9 to 8 on a limited snap-share (34%), but did not produce to the level his talent profile would indicate. Despite this performance and Alvin Kamara returning to active duty, Kendre still carries enough upside that makes him a secretive buy-low candidate.
Luke Musgrave continues to remain a focal point of the Packer's offense, leading his team with 6 receptions on an 86% snap-share. However, it was Romeo Doubs who lead all Packers WR’s on snaps (86%), targets (12), receptions (5), yards (73), and had the lone receiving TD. Romeo and Jayden Reed lead the league in Red Zone fantasy points at 23 and 20 PPR points respectively. In defiance of a 53.1% completion percentage (2nd worst in the NFL, ahead of Zach Wilson’s 52.4%), Jordan Love remains a top 10 fantasy QB. It will be interesting to observe Love’s full command of the offense once Christian Watson and Aaron Jones return from injury. 

Texans vs. Jaguars - Our cryptanalysts have been unsuccessful in decyphering the enigma Trevor Lawrence. Though we can confirm that Trevor’s fantasy points per game are behind the likes of Justin Fields, Jimmy Garoppolo, Baker Mayfield, and even Joshua Dobbs in specific formats, this somehow conflicts with PFF, which grades Lawrence’s passing as one of the best in the league, behind only the Miami duo of Mike White and Tua Tagovailoa. We recommend continual surveillance of the situation in hopes that Trevor “Targaryen” will eventually come out of hiding.
There is a 3-way split amongst the Houston WRs. Nico Collins, Robert Woods, and Tank Dell are all tied with one another at 22% targets per route run. In week 3, Woods was featured on 77% of the snaps, Collins 66%, and Dell 61%. On the season, Collins has 15 catches, 23 targets, 260 receiving yards, 1 TD, a 13.22 Average Depth Of Target, 304 air yards, 7x 20+ yd catches, and 104 yds after the catch. Woods has 15 catches, 25 tgts, 165 yds, 0 TDs, 10.08 ADOT, 252 air yds, 1x 20+ yd cath, and 41 YAC. Dell has 15 catches, 21 tgts, 251 yds, 2 TDs, 12.14 ADOT, 255 air yds, 3x 20+ yd catches, 2x 40+ yd catches, and 75 YAC.     

Broncos vs. Dolphins - The Miami Special Forces are the highest-trained and most deadly unit our agency has encountered in some time. They are led by QB Tua Tagovailoa, who after enduring the harshest neurological conditioning, has returned to conduct a hostile takeover with his 1024 passing yds (2nd), 10.1 Yds/Att (1st*), 71.3% completion percentage (6th*), 8 TD throws (2nd), 121.9 QB Rating (1st*), 52.5% 1st Down % (1st*), and 7.7% Big Time Throw Rate (1st)(*Minimum 3 throwing attempts). There is no training or precedent that can help defenders prepare for the speed of these Miami operators; Devon Achane registered the fastest play so far this season at 21.93 MPH during his 67 yd rushing TD in week 3. Achane needed only 1 game to become the 10th leading rusher in the league with 208 yards.
Courtland Sutton was one of the few Denver players who survived this encounter. He led his team with 8 catches on 11 targets for 91 yds and the lone Broncos TD on a 95% snap share. Sutton’s production could have been far greater if it wasn’t for his own teammate sabotaging his would-be 2nd TD and a 3rd TD going right through Courtland’s hands later in the game.

Chargers vs. Vikings - Justin Jefferson has 27 receptions on 38 targets for 458 yds through 3 weeks of NFL action (the only better stretch of his career was wks 14-16 last season: 35/47 for 479 yds). Jordan Addison continues to outproduce K.J. Osborn on a smaller snap-share with 19 targets, 13 receptions, 185 yds, 2 TDs, 13.61 ADOT, and 245 air yards so far this season (Osborn: 15 tgts, 7 rec, 101 yds, 2 TDs, 11.47 ADOT, 172 air yds).    
Keenan Allen has been in the game a long time, but father time hasn’t prevented the vet from enjoying the best season start of his career: 32/39 for 402 yards and 2 TDs. With Mike Williams lost for the season, Joshua Palmer will likely be the immediate benefactor to fill the void as Quentin Johnston takes his sweet ole time to make an impact.

Patriots vs. Jets - Breece Hall received the squeaky wheel treatment this week and was awarded 8 more carries than last week… it’s a shame he managed only 9 more rushing yards in week 3 despite his increased opportunities. The Jets' defense having to suffer Zach Wilson playing QB is far more agonizing than any poison pill our agency would sanction using on our worst enemies.
Nothing new to report for the Patriots. 

Bills vs. Commanders - James Cook is third in the league in rushing with 267 yards at 6.1 yards per carry. He has an additional 10 catches on 13 targets for 67 receiving yards. Unfortunately, Cook is cursed with the same red zone usage that plagues Jahmyr Gibbs, and thus only has 2 red zone touches and 0 TDs to show for this season.
Brian Robinson continues to dominate on the ground - 70 yards on 10 carries in this matchup. He is currently 7th in the league in rushing yards with 216. With a top-10 defense and a head coach on the hot seat, Sam Howell can ill afford to squander his opportunity with performances like he had in week 3 against the Bills (19/29, 170 yds, 0 TDs, 4 INTs, 41.5 QB Rating) before the echoes of Jacoby Brissett’s name become deafening in Washington.

Panthers vs. Seahawks - There were some who doubted the validity of Andy Dalton outproducing Bryce Young, but this is why we are considered an Intelligence Agency. In his first game this season, Dalton was 34/58 for 361 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, and an 88.4 QB rating. Bryce Young through 2 games is 42/71 for 299 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs, and a 66.6 QB rating (2nd worst, only ahead of Zach Wilson). The “Red Rifle” is an expert in toppling QB regimes and has operations conducted in Cincinnati, Dallas, Chicago, New Orleans, and now Carolina. The Panthers will not rush Bryce back from injury if Andy continues to inject life into this deceased offense.
Zach Charbonnet had the highest snap share of his young career in week 3 with 43% (Kenneth Walker 51%). Zach took advantage of his increased opportunity and rushed for 46 yards on 9 carries while Walker rushed for 97 yds on 18 carries. Zach will have to become more effective with his limited touches since his volume is unlikely to increase given how talented the receivers and lead-back are in Seattle.

Cowboys vs. Cardinals - Tony Pollard leads the league in rush attempts with 62 carries for 264 yds (4.3 ypc), and has an additional 12 catches (14 tgts) for 48 yards receiving through 3 weeks. Pollard out-snapped every other Dallas playmaker and saw the field on 86% of the plays in week 3 against Arizona. 
James Conner turned in another solid performance with 98 yds rushing on 18 carries and 1 TD (18 yds receiving on 2 catches) on 64% of the snap share. How Joshua Dobbs was able to dismantle the Cowboy's Defense far exceeds most other agencies' technological capabilities and will otherwise remain classified to any agent without the highest security clearance in our agency.

Waiver Targets

In terms of FAAB bidding, it’s best to review your league’s previous waiver behavior to best navigate the wire.

• Andy Dalton - 5% rostership, spend up to 8-10% FAAB (Top 10 week in debut and has a juicy matchup against Minnesota in week 4)

• Joshua Dobbs - 6% rostership, 8-10% FAAB (let’s see if Dobbs can topple 2x top 3 defenses in a row with SF up next)

• Aidan O’Connell - 1% rostership, 0% FAAB (the Puka of QBs, he could very well start if Jimmy G is unable to find his way out of the concussion maze) 

• Rico Dowdle - 5% rostership, 0% FAAB (stash on rosters with deep benches)

• Marvin Mims - 27% rostership, 10-12% FAAB (production too good to ignore despite limited snaps, better on Best Ball rosters)

• Joshua Palmer - 5% rostership, 5-7% FAAB (do not get too carried away - Palmer has been in this position many times before and done nothing with it)

• Josh Downs - 12% rostership, 3-5% FAAB (pushing for #2 WR role in Indi)

• DJ Chark - 5% rostership, 2-4% FAAB (led Panthers WRs in snaps, 11 tgts in wk 3)

• Donald Parham - 2% rostership, 0% FAAB (better on Best Ball rosters)

Trade Assets

At this stage of the season, we recommend trading up to a max of 2x 3rd-round picks or a 2nd-round pick that is two years away.

• Tutu Atwell - 2x 3rd rd picks, a 3rd + a player, or a 2025 2nd (#14 WR in total PPR fantasy points) 

• Courtland Sutton - 2x 3rd rd picks, a 3rd + a player, or a 2025 2nd (#22 WR in total PPR fantasy points)