WK 3 - Depressed States
High hopes and significant capital were invested in the following teams for the 2024 fantasy season. Like the job prospects in a shit economy, you feel misled and disappointed, the same way most parents feel about their kids. Some of these franchises may turn it around, allowing their star players to flourish. But for the most part, these teams’ weaknesses will hold their players back from living up to their potential, similar to me with my Master’s degree. Caught in the awful dilemma of holding players that may never ascend or trading players before their resurgence, these teams epitomize the fantasy Catch-22.
Franchises That Can Make or Break 2024
Okay. All right, now, let's see. Where were we? Oh, yes. In the Pit of Despair.
Grandpa - The Princess Bride
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Burned
“Hey! It’s my birthday, do you want to come over to my place and watch The Iron Claw?” you say to your co-worker, who is way out of your league. She smiles at you saying, “Oh my God, that would be great!” before quickly walking away. In preparation for your pity date, you wrestle yourself into your favorite pop-culture T-shirt from Khol’s, which now feels kid-sized. The scent of black cherry merlot wafts through your studio apartment, doing its best to drown out the aroma of cat litter and kill socks. You quickly look down at your vibrating phone, hoping it's her. It’s your mom asking you for the HBO MAX password so she can watch Furiosa. An hour and a half have passed before it finally sinks in that she isn’t coming. A knock at the door catapults you from your hookah-burned loveseat. It's the Uber Eats driver with your $28 Taco Bell order, now for one. You eat the whole thing. All in all, not such a bad birthday. That is until you open up your Sleeper app. 0-3, 0-3, 1-2 with the lowest points scored, 0-3. Most embarrassing of course being your winless work-league team, where half of the managers have never played before, and all of them know you are big into fantasy football. What once began as “My Year!” has quickly devolved into “my last year...”
SITREP - Depressed States
High hopes and significant capital were invested in the following teams for the 2024 fantasy season. Like the job prospects in a shit economy, you feel misled and disappointed, the same way most parents feel about their kids. Some of these franchises may turn it around, allowing their star players to flourish. But for the most part, these teams’ weaknesses will hold their players back from living up to their potential, similar to me with my Master’s degree. Caught in the awful dilemma of holding players that may never ascend or trading players before their resurgence, these teams epitomize the fantasy Catch-22.
Patriots - Some people are interested in knowing what life was like a hundred years ago and spend their weekends at museums. If you love boring, dusty football, look no further than the New England Patriots, who put the “Old” in Old School. Their game plan revolves around sound defense, running the ball with a bellcow RB, and keeping the ball safe on passing downs. They often don’t pass the ball further than 10 yards downfield given subpar line play. Rhamondre Stevenson will have decent games throughout the season, but negative game scripts and zero threat of explosive plays through the air will hamper the Rhino.
Neutral Pass Rate - 0.42 (28th in NFL), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
OLine Rating - PassBlk = 54 (28th), RunBlk = 56.2 (27th), (Courtesy PFF)
QB Rating - Jacoby Brissett = 62.2 (24th), (Courtesy PFF)
Run Rating - 75.8 (14th), (Courtesy PFF)
RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 21.7 pts (12th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Receiving Rating - 60.6 (26th), (Courtesy PFF)
WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 15.2 pts (32nd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 11.7 pts (2nd-tied), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Defense - Overall = 67.1 (13th), RunD = 58.5 (19th), PassRsh = 71.3 (7th), Cov = 65 (19th), (Courtesy PFF)
Upcoming Schedule - At SF, home vs MIA, home vs HOU, at JAX, home vs NYJ, at TEN, at CHI, home vs LAR, at MIA
Bears - Caleb Willams has every tool to become a successful QB. Unfortunately, he plays for the Bears, who once again have proven why no offensive player can succeed in Chicago. The narrative that the offensive line has been revamped was a bald-faced lie. This gives the Bears no chance of having positive momentum through the air or on the ground. If this wasn’t enough, the Bears have the worst OC in the entire league. Hold onto Caleb and Rome Odunze, looking forward to next year.
Neutral Pass Rate - 0.54 (8th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
OLine Rating - PassBlk = 70.5 (11th), RunBlk = 59.9 (22nd), (Courtesy PFF)
QB Rating - Caleb Williams = 48.6 (40th), (Courtesy PFF)
Run Rating - 59.9 (30th), (Courtesy PFF)
RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 17.9 pts (23rd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Receiving Rating - 60.3 (27th), (Courtesy PFF)
WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 34.6 pts (4th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 11 pts (6th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Defense - Overall = 72.1 (7th), RunD = 61.7 (13th), PassRsh = 70.9 (8th), Cov = 74 (6th), (Courtesy PFF)
Upcoming Schedule - Home vs LAR, home vs CAR, home vs JAX, at WAS, at ARI, home vs NE, home vs GB, home vs MIN, at DET
Raiders - A Jekyll and Hyde team, the Raiders operate purely on emotion, punching well above their weight class as underdogs, but also capable of collapse against lesser teams. Gardner Minshew exhausted all of his quality play last year in Indianapolis and has regressed to backup status in Las Vegas. With coach Pierce already considering Aidan O'Connell at QB, Bowers and Adams owners are in for a carousel ride from hell in 2024. Zamir White being unusable is the biggest nonsurprise of the season. The Silver and Black will leave fantasy managers black and blue by the end of the season.
Neutral Pass Rate - 0.54 (7th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
OLine Rating - PassBlk = 71.5 (9th), RunBlk = 47 (31st), (Courtesy PFF)
QB Rating - Gardner Minshew = 70.8 (12th), (Courtesy PFF)
Run Rating - 40.2 (32nd), (Courtesy PFF)
RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 14.9 pts (32nd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Receiving Rating - 71.4 (12th), (Courtesy PFF)
WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 27.9 pts (12th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 11.6 pts (5th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Defense - Overall = 52.3 (30th), RunD = 71.9 (5th), PassRsh = 60.2 (24th), Cov = 34.5 (32nd), (Courtesy PFF)
Upcoming Schedule - Home vs CLE, at DEN, home vs PIT, at LAR, home vs KC, at CIN, at MIA, home vs DEN, at KC
Chargers - The Chargers deserve to be in a higher tier. Jim Harbaugh is a fantastic coach who understands successful team building. He has raised both J.K. Dobbins and Quentin Johnston from the dead. The defense looks the best it has in years. But the Chargers, and some other teams in this tier, are far better in real life than in fantasy. With Justin Herbert’s health in constant flux for the rest of the year, the only reliable option in this offense is JK All Day. Herbert, Ladd McConkey, and Dobbins will be a sneaky great trio in 2025.
Neutral Pass Rate - 0.4 (29th-tied), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
OLine Rating - PassBlk = 58.1 (25th), RunBlk = 65.9 (13th), (Courtesy PFF)
QB Rating - Justin Herbert = 53.2 (37th), (Courtesy PFF)
Run Rating - 62.5 (26th), (Courtesy PFF)
RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 16.9 pts (28th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Receiving Rating - 63.9 pts (22nd), (Courtesy PFF)
WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 18.8 pts (29th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 6.3 pts (24th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Defense - Overall = 75.7 (5th), RunD = 63.6 (10th), PassRsh = 63.1 (21st), Cov = 85.7 (2nd), (Courtesy PFF)
Upcoming Schedule - Home vs KC, at DEN, at ARI, home vs NO, at CLE, home vs TEN, home vs CIN, home vs BAL, at ATL
Steelers - Like the team before them, the Steelers are fun to watch in RL but nerve-racking for fantasy. Justin Fields may be the ideal QB for this Authur Smith offense, but he limits the upside of George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth. The Agency would much rather have Russell Wilson at QB for this reason, but that ship may have sailed for the team-voted captain if Fields keeps winning. Their elite defense will give their offense plenty of opportunities. But with the pass-catchers being a boom-bust option and Najee & Warren playing well below their capabilities, Pittsburgh will frustrate managers in 2024.
Neutral Pass Rate - 0.4 (29th-tied), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
OLine Rating - PassBlk = 68.2 (15th), RunBlk = 70 (11th), (Courtesy PFF)
QB Rating - Justin Fields = 81 (5th), (Courtesy PFF)
Run Rating - 58.9 (31st), (Courtesy PFF)
RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 21.9 pts (11th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Receiving Rating - 69.7 (16th), (Courtesy PFF)
WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 15.5 pts (31st), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 7.8 pts (15th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Defense - Overall = 80.3 (2nd), RunD = 72.1 (4th), PassRsh = 88 (1st), Cov = 72.4 (9th), (Courtesy PFF)
Upcoming Schedule - At IND, home vs DAL, at LV, home vs NYJ, home vs NYG, at WAS, home vs BAL, at CLE, at CIN
Colts - The Agency had high hopes for this Steichen-led offense with talented playmakers, an elite offensive line, and a duel-threat mutant at QB. Unfortunately, the ultimate fantasy QB looks like a Frankenstein monstrosity who escaped the lab before he could learn passing fundamentals. No overpriced beer is safe with how often Richardson’s passes sail over the receivers and into the stands. His inaccuracy will not be fixed during the season; these issues can only be fixed during the offseason. No receiver is startable with this offseason and Jonathan Taylor is a risky play with how bad the defense has frequently looked.
Neutral Pass Rate - 0.48 (17th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
OLine Rating - PassBlk = 85.8 (1st), RunBlk = 82.3 (1st), (Courtesy PFF)
QB Rating - Anthony Richardson = 48.3 (41st), (Courtesy PFF)
Run Rating - 79.4 (8th), (Courtesy PFF)
RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 16.2 pts (30th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Receiving Rating - 57 (31st), (Courtesy PFF)
WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 21.3 pts (24th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 4.5 pts (31st-tied), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Defense - Overall = 65.5 (16th), RunD = 64.7 (9th), PassRsh = 58.3 (26th), Cov = 66.5 (16th), (Courtesy PFF)
Upcoming Schedule - Home vs PIT, at JAX, at TEN, home vs MIA, at HOU, at MIN, home vs BUF, at NYJ, home vs DET
Jets - With Breece Hall being the only viable fantasy option, the Jets are the definition of a depressed franchise. Hopes of Aaron Rodgers making the most of the opportunities afforded to him by his loaded defense appear misplaced. Allen Lazard, not Garret Wilson, appears to have the best connection with the QB. The Agency fully anticipates the Jets to improve on offense as the season progresses, but with the team being content to keep their signal-caller upright, we expect the offense to continue to run through Hall and Allen at RB and the breakout season for Wilson to remain elusive.
Neutral Pass Rate - 0.5 (11th-tied), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
OLine Rating - PassBlk = 66.1 (18th), RunBlk = 66.7 (12th), (Courtesy PFF)
QB Rating - Aaron Rodgers = 82.8 (3rd), (Courtesy PFF)
Run Rating - 81.7 (5th), (Courtesy PFF)
RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 22.1 pts (10th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Receiving Rating - 70.1 (14th), (Courtesy PFF)
WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 25.4 pts (16th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 7.4 pts (16th-tied), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Defense - Overall = 64.7 (19th), RunD = 45.6 (31st), PassRsh = 66.6 (16th), Cov = 79.5 (3rd), (Courtesy PFF)
Upcoming Schedule - Home vs DEN, at MIN, home vs BUF, at PIT, at NE, home vs HOU, at ARI, home vs IND, home vs SEA
Dolphins - Miami finds themselves in football limbo with their QB Tua Tagovailoa lost in the maze once again. Having De’Von Achane average 20 touches per game has been great, but this is a short-term fantasy fling that isn’t built to last and could end in heartbreak at any moment. The best outcome for the team is Tua emerging from the labyrinth to play the rest of the season. For this reason, Tyreek Hill is a hold. But Tua remaining unscathed for the year behind an awful pass-blocking line isn’t realistic. The Dolphins should trade for Bryce Young, who could excel in this McDaniel offense.
Neutral Pass Rate - 0.49 (13th-tied), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
OLine Rating - PassBlk = 62.6 (22nd), RunBlk = 76.5 (3rd), (Courtesy PFF)
QB Rating - Tua Tagovailoa = 59.9 (27th), (Courtesy PFF)
Run Rating - 70.2 (20th), (Courtesy PFF)
RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 23.5 pts (3rd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Receiving Rating - 60.7 (25th), (Courtesy PFF)
WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 25.4 pts (15th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 11.7 pts (2nd-tied), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Defense - Overall = 61.2 (24th), RunD = 69.6 (6th), PassRsh = 67.3 (15th), Cov = 48.5 (29th), (Courtesy PFF)
Upcoming Schedule - Home vs TEN, at NE, at IND, home vs ARI, at BUF, at LAR, home vs LV, home vs NE, at GB
Bengals - Our prediction for the Bengals to become the next high-flying offense was WAY OFF. Their run game is nonexistent, which is a moot point considering their sieve of a defense. Cincinnati has all the pass-catching power to keep them in a lot of games, but with their one-dimensional build, this team is going to be nowhere near what we had hoped for in 2024.
Neutral Pass Rate - 0.59 (3rd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
OLine Rating - PassBlk = 68 (16th), RunBlk = 57.5 (25th), (Courtesy PFF)
QB Rating - Joe Burrow = 77.2 (8th), (Courtesy PFF)
Run Rating - 71.4 (19th), (Courtesy PFF)
RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 18 pts (21st-tied), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Receiving Rating - 62.9 (23rd), (Courtesy PFF)
WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 30.7 pts (10th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 13.7 pts (1st), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Defense - Overall = 63.8 (21st), RunD = 62.6 (11th), PassRsh = 57.3 (28th), Cov = 66.5 (16th), (Courtesy PFF)
Upcoming Schedule - At CAR, home vs BAL, at NYG, at CLE, home vs PHI, home vs LV, at BAL, at LAC, home vs PIT
Falcons - Murdered out in their all-black unis, few teams are more intimidating than Atlanta lined up on offense. But despite their embarrassment of riches, the Falcons have played far below fantasy expectations. Every pass from Kirk Cousins looks like a hate-throw; as if he has already accepted that he will be benched by midseason for Michael Penix. Drake London was drafted as a top 12-15 WR, but he is playing more like a 25-30-ranked receiver. The greatest “what-if?” player of his generation remains Kyle Pitts. Bijan Robinson is playing more like the Suffering Servant with only 1 TD in three games than the RB Messiah we had all hoped for. Darnell Mooney is a sneaky cheap buy with his solid connection to Cousins. The Falcons could elevate themselves into the next tier, but as of now, they are one of fantasy’s most depressing teams.
Neutral Pass Rate - 0.44 (24th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
OLine Rating - PassBlk = 56.8 (26th), RunBlk = 71.5 (8th), (Courtesy PFF)
QB Rating - Kirk Cousins = 61.4 (25th), (Courtesy PFF)
Run Rating - 75.8 (14th), (Courtesy PFF)
RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 18.6 pts (17th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Receiving Rating - 71.9 (9th), (Courtesy PFF)
WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 24.7 pts (17th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 7 pts (19th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Defense - Overall = 64.4 (20th), RunD = 62 (12th), PassRsh = 48.8 (32nd), Cov = 72.8 (8th), (Courtesy PFF)
Upcoming Schedule - Home vs NO, home vs TB, at CAR, home vs SEA, at TB, home vs DAL, at NO, at DEN, home vs LAC
Works Cited
PFF
NFL Week 3 Recap - Fantasy Usage Model by Hayden Winks
https://underdognetwork.com/football/analysis/nfl-week-3-recap-fantasy-usage-model-2024
The Dossier
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Week 3 Waiver Targets
The South Harmon Agency has more high-tier operatives gathering intel than ever before. Be sure to keep your channel open and collect data from the various sources as it comes in. In terms of FAAB bidding, review your league’s previous waiver behavior to navigate the wire best. The waiver wire will become more bare as the season continues, especially in best ball formats.
Waiver Targets
The South Harmon Agency has more high-tier operatives gathering intel than ever before. Be sure to keep your channel open and collect data from the various sources as it comes in. In terms of FAAB bidding, review your league’s previous waiver behavior to navigate the wire best. The waiver wire will become more bare as the season continues, especially in best ball formats.
ReDraft (most of these players will be rostered in Dynasty leagues)
Braelon Allen - 21% rostership, 12-15% FAAB (Jumped from 18% to 35% snap share in wk. 2 and turned the increased opportunity into 2 TDs. If Breece ever misses time, Allen has RB1 potential)
Alec Pierce - 23% rostership, 10-13% FAAB (There’s no way the 3rd yr player keeps up this breakout pace, but take a shot on him in case we’re wrong)
Andrei Iosivas - 15% rostership, 10-12% FAAB (Not sure what his role will be once Higgins returns, but the Bengals looked a lot better in Wk. 2, & Iosivas looks like a top redzone target for Burrow)
Kareem Hunt - 0% rostership, 8-10% FAAB (Pacheco is out for 6-8 wks with a fractured fibula. Steele & Perine aren’t good. CEH is MIA. Hunt had 10 top-36 RB performances in 2023. Now he’s back in a Chiefs uniform.)
Quentin Johnston - 16% rostership, spend 8-10% FAAB (The Poster Child of Busts is no longer looking like one of the worst fantasy picks of all time)
Jalen Nailor - 4% rostership, 5-8% FAAB (with injuries now to both JJ & Addison, Nailor finds himself as the #1 on a dangerous looking Vikings team behind Sam Darnold - never expected to write this)
Jalen Tolbert - 6% rostership, 5-8% FAAB (Tolbert & Cooks could very easily trade weeks as the #2 in this high-powered offense. There’s also the chance Cooks could miss time at some point this season.)
Mike Gesicki - 10% rostership, 5-7% FAAB (The Bengals have never prioritized their TEs, but that could all change this yr.)
Dynasty
Andy Dalton - 9% rostership, 25-30% FAAB (You should already have him holstered, but if he’s somehow available, you pony up to acquire him. He was the QB7 in week 3 last yr and won’t relinquish the starting role for the ROS. If you need a QB3, send up to 2x 3rds via trade.)
Josh Reynolds - 53% rostership, 8-10% FAAB (Bo Nix doesn’t look the greatest, but Reynolds deserves to be rostered as the #2 option in a team that will look to pass a lot when behind)
D’Onta Foreman - 45% rostership, 8-10% FAAB (Consistently overlooked, Foreman always finds himself on the field with a decent share of the opportunities. Surprised to see him out-touch Ford 15 to 8)
Atwell/Whittington - 34% & 71% rostership, 5-8% FAAB (The Rams WR room has come under attack. Look for Tutu & Jordan to be the top receivers if Robinson & Tyler go down to injury in wk. 3)
Noah Brown - 32% rostership, 5% FAAB in Best Ball only (Jayden & The Commanders are obsessed with running, but in a given week Noah has the potential to be a top 2-3 receiving option for the team)
The Dossier
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