Week 12 Dossier

Frenemies

Off The Record

It’s dark and you can barely make your way through the thick crowd at the Last Dance nightclub. The blasts of mariachi trumpets and electric guitars ring in your ears as you are being escorted past the stage. You reach a stairwell guarded by two more men who pat you down and grant you passage with a slight nod. You descend into an entirely new world, hidden away deep below. In it you see a long wooden bar with low-lit glass shelves and at the end of it a red leather booth with a man in a white suit.

“And who is this unexpected guest that has welcomed themself into my sanctuary? Have you decided to wake up and stop pretending to make a difference at the Agency?” the man in a white suit said. You reply, “I’m here to offer you a proposition - help you take down the competition.” The suited man bursts out into uncomfortable laughter “The last time I traded with you, I lost nearly everything! It took me over a year to recover my assets!!! But now I am the closest I have ever been to winning a championship!” he exclaimed. He tilted his head and slowly said, “But now you risk everything for us by being here. There will be consequences if the other contenders learn of our meeting.” You explain, “No one knows I am here, not even the Agency.” The man smiled and said “My father was an honest and hard-working man who started from nothing. He spent multiple years building up his assets. Then he put his trust in people like you and got in the way of the Asset Traffickers. The only thing left of him now is his orphan and the pain I inherited to piece it back together. I don’t need your help.” A few moments of silence go by before you say, “I knew your father. What happened to him wasn’t right. That’s why I am here. I want to take down the top guy and my reports are clear that you don’t have the firepower to do it by yourself. Your most valuable resources are bleeding on the IR now. How many more years are you going to come second place to them?” Slowly standing up and buttoning his jacket the man said, “Come with me.”

The man in the suit leads you through a narrow corridor before you finally reach a door. Outside, you are greeted with a mesmerizing view of a million lights flickering in the dark from the valley below. “What chance do you think you have?” the man says as he lights a fat cigar. “I can’t help you. If this Dynasty Lord wants to destroy you, they will. How can you escape the storm? No matter where you go, they can always reach you. So tell me, what do you really want?” You reply, “Information. I want to know who this contender has talked to.”  The man chuckles and says, “If you want to beat the best, it’s not enough to know what they have been doing. You need to know what their next move is.” You then ask, “And I assume you know?” Slowing puffing smoke from his cigar he smiled and said “Of course I do.”

Usage Activity

A player’s usage can have massive implications for how we attack the season. Here are some points of interest worth monitoring:

Packers vs. Lions - David Montgomery only received 27% of the snaps in this matchup, but still managed 15 carries for 71 yards and 1 TD. It was Jamyr Gibbs who received the lion’s share of the snaps with 71%, in which he had 11 carries for 54 yards rushing and 4/8 for 19 yards receiving.
Jordan Love has put together back-to-back top-10 QB performances, including 22/32 for 268 yards passing and 3 TDs (39 yards rushing) against Detroit. In most scoring formats, Love is the QB9 in fantasy, and has an appealing schedule with Kansas City being the most difficult matchup in week 13, followed by the Giants, the Buccaneers, the Panthers, and the Vikings.

Commanders vs. Cowboys - Dak Prescott has been arguably the best QB in the league over the second half of the season. Since week 6, Prescott has led the league with 18 passing TDs (5 more TDs than 2nd placed Allen & Herbert over that span), has the most passing yards per game with 312.3, and is 2nd behind Sam Howell with 1874 total passing yards. Only Josh Allen has more fantasy points at the position since week 6 (178.5 pts vs Prescott’s 169.6). During this part of the season, Prescott has been the QB1, QB3, QB2, QB1, QB17, and QB3. In a year that is filled with old WRs, expendable RBs, and detested QBs all producing at high levels, it would definitely be worth considering pursuing the dead-zone QB in Prescott ahead of his highly favorable rest-of-season fantasy schedule.
Sam Howell isn’t far behind Prescott though - he’s been the 4th best QB in fantasy since week 6 (Jalen Hurts is 3rd). Howell has an insane 295 pass attempts over this span (Allen 2nd w/ 258) for an NFL-high 1989 yards passing over the past 7 weeks. But with a bye in week 14, and tough matchups with the Jets and 49ers in weeks 16 & 17, it remains to be seen if Sam Howell can rise to the occasion to deliver fantasy glory for contenders.

Saints vs. Falcons - In this pivotal divisional matchup, each team’s best offensive players were heavily featured. For the Falcons, it was Bijan Robinson who led Atlanta to victory. Robinson’s 16 carries for 91 yards and 1 TD on the ground and 3/6 for 32 yards & 1 TD through the air (63% of the snaps) is the second promising performance in a row for the RB and should be encouraging for all fantasy owners.
For the Saints, Chris Olave and Alvin Kamara did their best to deliver New Orleans a victory. Olave was well on his way to having his best performance of the season with his 7/9 for 114 receiving yards but was unfortunately knocked out of the game with a concussion in the third quarter. Kamara continued his epic RB campaign with 15 carries for 69 yards rushing and 4 catches on 5 targets for an additional 50 yards receiving. With Olave likely to miss next week versus the Lions, Kamara could have a monster game.

Jaguars vs. Texans  - Trevor Lawrence and Calvin Ridley have seemingly sorted out their earlier season woes and have been the #2 fantasy producers at their respective positions the last two weeks in crucial divisional games. Our agents will keep a close eye on this Jacksonville team as they look to complete their AFC North tour with Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Baltimore next on their schedule.
Nothing further to report on the Texans at this time.

Buccaneers vs. Colts - This is the time of the year when certain RBs operate like runaway freight trains, barreling through any defenses in their path. Jonathan Taylor is playing his best football of the year right now - 15 carries for 91 yards and 2 TDs on 58% of the snaps this week. It will be exciting to watch both Taylor and Derrick Henry steamroll defenders when the Colts visit the Titans in their week 13 division game.
Nothing to report on the Buccaneers at this time.

Rams vs. Cardinals - In his first game coming off IR, Kyren Williams picked up where he left off and erupted as the RB1 on the week with 16 carries for 143 yards on the ground and 6 catches on 6 targets for 61 yards and 2 TDs through the air (61% snap share). Week 13 and 14 will not be easy for the Rams, as they face the Browns and Ravens, but will have much easier sledding in the fantasy playoffs with matchups against the Commanders, the Saints, and the Giants.
Marquise Brown and Trey McBride were the top receiving options for Kyler in this matchup. Brown had 6 catches on 12 targets for 88 yards receiving, whereas McBride had 7 catches on 9 targets for 60 yards receiving. Both are dynamic pass-catching weapons and figure to remain Kyler’s favorite targets for the rest of the season.

Browns vs. Broncos - David Njoku has been the favorite pass-catcher for the Brown’s QBs over the past month. Over the last 4 weeks, Njoku has led the team (min. 10 routes run sample) in TGT % (25.3%), TPRR (0.29), receptions (23), and YAC (137 yds). Only Amari Cooper has produced at a similar fantasy level as Njoku over this span of time. Njoku went 6/9 for 59 yards receiving on 85% of the snaps in week 12 versus Denver.
Despite some of the best RB metrics in the league, Jaleel McLaughlin has seemingly taken the place of Marvin Mims as yet another highly talented and underutilized weapon on this Broncos offense. McLaughlin saw a season-low 3% snap share, whereas fellow teammates Javonte Williams and Samaje Perine each enjoyed productive days with 18 carries for 65 yards and 7 carries for 55 yards plus 1 TD respectively.

Ravens vs. Chargers - There may be a change of the guard at RB in Baltimore. Keaton Mitchell was hyper-efficient with the opportunities given to him (9 carries for 64 yards rushing and 2 catches on 2 targets for 25 more yards) and out-snapped Gus Edwards by 19% of the plays (46% vs. 27%). Edwards should still maintain his goal-line duties moving forward, and for that reason is still a viable fantasy option throughout the rest of the season. The following RB report will take a deeper dive at what makes Keaton Mitchell, and a select few other RBs, so impressive this season.    

RB Bona Fides

The Running Back position is a tumultuous asset, but still necessary for winning a championship. It is for this reason that this agency has based much of our RB Program on the same rigorous standards of our QB, WR, & TE selection process. The following sample will only include the top 45 RBs sorted by PP/G and data from weeks 1-11.

PPG (PPR) - Christian McCaffrey is by far the best fantasy-performing RB in terms of points per game (24.2 pts). De’Von Achane (20.6 pts), Alvin Kamara (20.5 pts), Kyren Williams (18.5 pts), Raheem Mostert (18.1 pts), and Jamyr Gibbs (18) round out the top 6 as the top producers so far this season.

The following categories give us a glimpse at the top pass-catching RBs this season

Routes/G - Kyren Williams has been utilized heavily in the Rams' pass offense with 27.7 routes per game. Alvin Kamara (24.9), Bijan Robinson (24.2), Rachaad White (23.2), Travis Etienne Jr. (21.7), and Antonio Gibson (21.4) all edge out McCaffrey, Barkley, and Gibbs for the top 6 spots. 

Targets/Route Run - Jaleel McLaughlin is the most heavily targeted RB in the league at 36% targets per route run. Alvin Kamara (33%), Javonte Williams (31%), Jaylen Warren (30%), Keaton Mitchell (29%), and Aaron Jones (26%) are just ahead of Gibbs for the top 6 ranking.

The following categories assist in finding the best rushers this year.

Yards Created/Touch - Keaton Mitchell has been one of the most efficient RBs at 7.38 yards created per touch. Achane (6.06), Gibson (5.87), Warren (5.46), Tyjae Spears (4.58), and McLaughlin (4.53) all rank in the top 6.

Evaded Tackles/G - Jaylen Warren and Breece Hall are both tied as the shiftiest RBs this season at 4.5 evaded tackles per game. Mostert & McCaffrey both averaged 4.4 tackles evaded per game, whereas Kenneth Walker III & Kyren Williams each averaged 4.3 tackles evaded per game. 

Yards After Contact/Attempt - The most difficult RB to bring down this year is Keaton Mitchell, who is averaging 8.35 yards after contact per attempt. Achane (7.26), Warren (4.44), Spears & McLaughlin (3.77), and James Conner (3.64) round out the top 6

Elusive Rating - PFF uses some of the above categories in order to formulate their elusive rating. So to no surprise, the title for the most elusive RB in the league goes to Keaton Mitchell at a 382.7 rating. Achane (281.4), Warren (198.5), Spears (168.7), McLaughlin (123.8), and Mostert (104.3) round out the top 6. 

Breakaway Runs & TDs - In terms of big play and scoring ability, there are a number of RBs that perform very well in both categories. McCaffrey is number 1 in total TDs and number 2 in breakaway runs. Mostert has the inverse ranking being number 1 in breakaway runs and number 2 in TDs. Saquon Barkley is tied with McCaffrey in breakaway runs, but tied for 12th in TDs. Gibbs is also 12th in TDs and is 4th in breakaway runs. Travis Etienne Jr. and Brian Robinson Jr. are both 4th in TDs and 10th in breakaway runs. Achane and Walker III are tied for 7th in TDs and 10th in breakaway runs.

The following trio of categories are amongst the best in finding the most productive RBs.

Top 5 Snap Share - Kyren Williams has the highest snap share league at 85.9%, followed by McCaffrey (82.5), Barkley (80.8%), Etienne Jr. (78.6%), and Josh Jacobs (77.9%).

Top 5 Target Share - Kamara has the highest target share amongst RBs at 21.5%, ahead of McCaffrey (20.2%), Barkley (17.2%), Gibbs (16.3%), and Austin Ekeler (15.8%).

Top 5 Red Zone Touches - McCaffrey leads RBs with 56 red zone touches, followed by Pollard (47), Jacobs (40), Joe Mixon (36), and Walker III (35).

Christian McCaffrey is the only RB in the top 5 of all three categories, whereas Barkley and Jacobs are the only other RBs in at least two of the three categories.

The Agency will post an RB Bulletin next week based on this intel. 

Waiver Targets

Spymaster Vanek will provide the latest intel through his America’s Game report. In terms of FAAB bidding, review your league’s previous waiver behavior to navigate the wire best. The waiver wire will become more bare as the season continues, especially in best ball formats.

• Greg Dortch - 39% rostership, spend up to 1% FAAB (Was a favorite target of Kyler last year and has been decent the last 2 weeks since Kyler’s return)