WK 6 - Top 2024 Tight Ends

The Silence of the Tight Ends

All good things to those who wait.

Hannibal Lecter - The Silence of the Lambs

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Tough Love

“Babe! I just got a raise! Aren’t you proud of me?” my wife asks.

“That’s nice babe, but Nico Collins is on IR and I don’t know how long my teams can hold on without Tyreek Hill producing,” I reply.

“Babe, don’t worry. Everyone loves ya and you're doing an amazing job at work! You should be proud!” she responds. 

“The only thing I'm proud of is drafting Jake Ferguson, who is single-handedly keeping my team afloat!” I say looking down in shame.

“Oh babe, everything is going to be ok,” she says as she stirs my morning Metamucil. 

I do not deserve this woman, making the sting of my failures all the more unbearable. I want to be great, but damn, it's a lot of work. But what can I do about it? What would my dad do?

“You need to stop crying and work harder!” his voice echoes in my head. “Put down the Slim Jim, that’s your fourth one already! Wake up at 4 am like Hugh Jackman and start training like the Wolverine! Dig deeper into your spreadsheets and write something worth a damn! Perhaps when you have a 6-pack, your wife and others will respect you.”

“But Dad,” I reply. “If I do all this work, I won’t get much quality time with my wife and friends.”

“Overrated!” he retorts. “Trust me, son, if you work yourself to death, hardly see your loved ones, and let her buy whatever she wants at Costco, that’s the only way you’re going to turn your fantasy fortunes and marriage around.”

“Thanks, Dad.” 

TE Bona Fides 

The Tight End position is unlike any other asset operating in the field given the extreme difficulty in identifying the top prospects outside of the elite. With our rigorous and proven standards, only the cream of the crop makes it through this Agency’s TE Camp.

Baseline

PPG (PPR): Courtesy of FantasyPros

1. George Kittle - 17.3 PPG

2. Brock Bowers - 13.8 PPG

3. Cole Kmet - 12.2 PPG

3.  Trey McBride - 12.2 PPG  

5.  Dallas Goedert - 10.8 PPG

6.  Tucker Kraft - 9.9 PPG

6.  Evan Engram - 9.9 PPG

Strong Indicators

Targets Share: Courtesy of Fantasy Points Data

1. Trey McBride - 25.7%

2. Evan Engram - 24.6%

3. Brock Bowers - 22.2%

4. George Kittle - 21.9%

5. Dalton Kincaid - 18.9%

6. Travis Kelce - 18.8%

Yards Per Team Pass Attempt: Courtesy of PlayerProfiler

1. Dallas Goedert - 1.92 yds

2. Evan Engram - 1.88 yds

3. Trey McBride - 1.83 yds

3.  George Kittle - 1.83 yds

5.  Brock Bowers - 1.81 yds

6.  Cole Kmet - 1.45 yds

Red Zone Targets: Courtesy of FantasyPros

1. George Kittle - 11 Tgts

2. Hunter Henry - 6 Tgts

2.  Isaiah Likely - 6 Tgts

2.  Colby Parkinson - 6 Tgts

2.  Cade Otton - 6 Tgts

Receiving Snaps Per Game (running a receiving route): Courtesy of PFF

1. Tyler Conklin - 34.83

2. Dalton Schultz - 33.17

3. Travis Kelce - 32.2

3.  Jake Ferguson - 32.2

5.  Cade Otton - 32

6.  Noah Fant - 31.83

Fair Indicators

Air Yards %: Courtesy of Fantasy Points Data

1. Travis Kelce - 27.8%

2. Trey McBride - 23.4%

3. Brock Bowers - 21.8%

4. Zach Ertz - 20%

5. Dalton Kincaid - 18%

6. George Kittle - 17.5%

Yards Per Route Run: Courtesy of Fantasy Points Data

1. Dallas Goedert - 2.51 yds

2. Brock Bowers - 2.37 yds

3. Evan Engram - 2.28 yds

4. Will Dissly - 2.27 yds

5. Cole Kmet - 2.26 yds

6. Foster Moreau - 2.15 yds

Targets Per Route Run: Courtesy of Fantasy Points Data

1. Evan Engram - 0.3 tgts

2. Brock Bowers - 0.29 tgts

2.  Will Dissly - 0.29 tgts

4.  Trey McBride - 0.28 tgts

5.  Jonnu Smith - 0.27 tgts

6.  George Kittle - 0.25 tgts

Faint Indicators 

Average Depth of Target: Courtesy of Fantasy Points Data

1. Mark Andrews - 10.7 yds

1.  Brenton Strange - 10.7 yds

3.  Foster Moreau - 9.9 yds

4.  Isaiah Likely - 9.7 yds

4.  Taysom Hill - 9.7 yds

6.  Zach Ertz - 8.6 yds

Pass Blocking % (Lowest %): Courtesy of PFF

1. Dallas Goedert - 0.7%

2. Mike Gesicki - 1.6%

3. Trey McBride - 1.9%

4. Jake Ferguson - 3.4%

5. Evan Engram - 3.6%

5.  Isaiah Likely - 3.6%

Yards After The Catch Per Reception: Courtesy of Fantasy Points Data

1. Tucker Kraft - 10.78 YAC

2. Sam LaPorta - 10.08 YAC

3. Dalton Kincaid - 7.57 YAC

4. Will Dissly - 7.23 YAC

5. Dallas Goedert - 6.96 YAC

6. David Njoku - 6.9 YAC

Considerations from Underdog

TE Team Usage (Expected Fantasy Points) (Wks 3-6): Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog

1. Chiefs (Travis Kelce) - 13.1 pts

2. Rams (Colby Parkinson) - 12.4 pts

3. Eagles (Dallas Goedert) - 11.7 pts

4. Jaguars (Engram & Strange) - 11.6 pts

5. Cowboys (Jake Ferguson) - 11.5 pts

6. Jets (Tyler Conklin) - 11.2 pts

HPPR (Production) Rank: Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog

1. George Kittle - 1st

2. Dallas Goedert - 2nd

3. Evan Engram - 3rd

4. Cole Kmet - 4th

5. Tucker Kraft - 5th

6. Brock Bowers - 6th

EXP (Expectation) Rank: Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog

1. George Kittle - 1st

2. Dallas Goedert - 2nd

3. Colby Parkinson - 3rd

4. Evan Engram - 4th

5. Trey McBride - 5th

6. Travis Kelce - 6th

Results

Overall:

1. George Kittle - 51 pts

2. Brock Bowers - 50 pts

3. Trey McBride - 48 pts

3.  Dallas Goedert - 48 pts

5.  Evan Engram - 47 pts

6.  Travis Kelce - 46 pts

Works Cited

• FantasyPros

• PFF

• Fantasy Points Data

• PlayerProfiler

• NFL Week 6 Recap - Fantasy Usage Model by Hayden Winks

https://underdognetwork.com/football/analysis/nfl-week-6-recap-fantasy-usage-model-2024

The Dossier

Image created by DK

Week 6 Waiver Targets

Waiver Targets

The South Harmon Agency has more high-tier operatives gathering intel than ever before. Be sure to keep your channel open and collect data from the various sources as it comes in. In terms of FAAB bidding, review your league’s previous waiver behavior to navigate the wire best. The waiver wire will become more bare as the season continues, especially in best ball formats.

ReDraft (most of these players will be rostered in Dynasty leagues)

• Tank Bigsby - 31% rostership, 20-25% FAAB in Best Ball (Was advocated as a pickup after wk 1. His 129 total yards & 2 TDs in wk 5 were a career-best, perhaps signaling a true 50/50 split moving forward on this dysfunctional offense.)

• Ty Chandler - 36% rostership, spend 18-20% FAAB (Aaron Jones suffered a hip injury with unknown severity in wk 5. Jones could be out several weeks at his age, and if Chandler performs well, then Jones won’t be rushed back for the undefeated franchise. The Vikings have a bye in wk 6, but you may not want to risk losing out on the potential RB1 in one of the best offenses in 2024.)

• Joe Flacco - 13% rostership, 15-18% FAAB (We may have a Pittsburgh/Green Bay situation, where the coach takes their time before rushing back the starting QB. Especially with how much better the offense has looked under Joe - 33/44, 359 yds, 3 TDs. Flacco is the perfect bye-wk QB if he is starting & worth a pickup if ARich were to pick up any further injuries.)

• Tyrone Tracy - 33% rostership, 10-12% FAAB (A dynasty favorite coming out of the draft for his unique profile as a WR converted RB. The rookie showcased his rushing ability while filling in for the injured Singletary. He exploded against a tough SEA defense with 129 rushing yards on 18 attempts. He is a FLEX-worthy option if Devin misses any further contests, but nothing more on an untrustworthy offense.)

• Colby Parkinson - 38% rostership, spend 8-10% FAAB (Close to setting career season highs after only 5 games, Colby has seen steady volume as one of the top pass catchers for a snakebit Rams team. With how awful the TE position has been, it would be worth stashing Colby ahead of their wk 6 bye.)

• Roschon Johnson - 32% rostership, spend 5-8% FAAB (The goalline back may not serve much more purpose than Swift’s TD vulture, but sometimes this is enough in fantasy as the pickings slim down.)

• Jaylen Wright - 20% rostership, spend 5-8% FAAB (Someone please check the Dolphins’ helmets for God’s sake. With Achane joining Tua in the maze, Jaylen Wright and Raheem Mostert stepped up to share the backfield in wk. 5. Wright played efficiently with 13 attempts for 86 yds. Miami has wk. 6 bye week, giving Achane 2 weeks to come back, but with how bad things have been in Miami, we wouldn’t be surprised to see the coach hold out Achane until Tua returns in wk. 8. Achane & Mostert are injury-prone, making Wright a worthwhile pickup for the ROS.)

• Ray-Ray McCloud - 10% rostership, 0-1% FAAB (A top 50 WR for 4/5 weeks, Ray-Ray had his best game in wk. 5 with 6/9 for 66 yds. The Falcons are a frustrating offense, but with Cousins averaging 274 yds a game (tied-5th in NFL), McCloud could be a decent option if needed.)

Dynasty

• Jalen Coker - 17% rostership, 8-10% FAAB in Best Ball only (A UDFA out of Holy Cross, the 6’3” 213 lb WR got the attention of Steve Smith Sr. during the Draft process and became a dynasty stash. With an injury to Legette, Coker made the most of his opportunity by going 4/4 for 68 yds. It is not often UDFAs out of small schools can make their way into a 53% snap share during their rookie season, but he has talent and Steve Smith’s interest, and that’s enough to put in a waiver.)

• Charlie Kolar - 2% rostership, 0-1% FAAB in Best Ball (It started with Likely, but now it seems that Charlie Kolar will be a major beneficiary of the Mark Andrews downfall. In all seriousness, Kolar is only worth an add in Best Ball leagues if you have someone on your bench that you can drop because they are Practice Team player.)

The Dossier

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