WK 7 - TE Buys Of 2024

Some Tight Ends Shine, Most Don't

Here's to five miserable months on the wagon, and all the irreparable harm it has caused me.

Jack Torrance - The Shining

Image created by T-Rock

The Interview

Jack parked his modest car next to the oversized RV in the school lot. Despite having never visited South Harmon before, Jack was overwhelmed with déjà vu as he weaved through the historic corridors and quickly found himself at the Principal’s Office to meet the Directors of South Harmon. 

“Hello!? My name is Jack! I’m here for an interview!” Jack said while knocking on the frosted glass door.

“Come on in Jack!” boomed a voice from inside.

Two bearded men stood up to greet Jack as he entered. 

“I’m Mike” stood the man from behind the desk, stretching out his hand towards Jack. 

“Adam,” said the other man, his handshake firm. Both men towered over Jack.

“So Jack, you came highly recommended to us, and here at South Harmon, we like to hire the best so that we can give them full autonomy to operate,” Mike began. “As a dynasty channel, our season runs all year round, with the busy season running from August through December. During the off-season, we shut down the school.” 

“Can I ask why you do that?” Jack interjected. “I feel like some of the best dynasty content comes during the offseason.”

“You’re absolutely right Jack,” Mike replied. “The problem is the enormous costs to keep a fully stocked pantry and fridge to feed our students.”

“Not to mention the liquor cabinet,” Adam added smiling.

“I bet!” Jack laughed.

“Jack,” Mike continued. “Do you have an idea of what this job entails?”

“Only in a very general way,” Jack replied.

“Well, the offseasons can be fantastically cruel in the dynasty space. And the basic idea is to cope with the content schedule that can occur. And this consists mainly of conducting research, engaging with our community on a daily, rotating basis, and providing our users the data they need so that they can gain a foothold in their leagues.

“Well, that sounds fine to me,” Jack said nodding at both men.

“Physically, it's not a very demanding job. The only thing that can get a bit trying up here during the offseason is, uh, a tremendous sense of isolation and competition in the dynasty landscape,” Adam said with compressed lips.

“Well, that just happens to be exactly what I'm looking for. I'm outlining a new writing project and, uh, seven months of peace is just what I want,” Jack responded.

“That's very good Jack, because, uh, for some people, solitude and competition can, of itself become a problem,” said Mike.

“Not for me.”

“How about your wife and son? How do you think they'll take to it?” Adam asked.

“My wife won’t mind since she can work remotely. My son is going to love this place.”

“I don't suppose they told you anything about the tragedy we had here last offseason?” Mike asked. Adam stared stiffly at Jack. 

“I don't believe they did,” Jack replied.

“Our last writer and caretaker of the school was a man named T-Rock. And he came up here with his wife and three cats. And he had a good employment record, good references, and he seemed like a completely normal individual. But at some point during the offseason, he must have suffered some kind of a complete mental breakdown. He was fired from his other job as a chef when grilled cheese sandwiches became too complex for him. His wife left him. He put two chicken fingers from George’s Lounge in his mouth and choked to death. Police found him in one of the classrooms with his body covered in $1 bills and Juicy J playing in the background. His cats ate his face off.”

Jack stared at Mike completely still, before saying “Well, that is quite a story. You can rest assured, Mike and Adam, that's not going to happen with me,” Jack said with a wide grin.

Agency Bulletin

During the 2023 Campaign, our Agency identified Evan Engram, Dalton Schultz, and Jonnu Smith as TE Interests in the Week 7 Dossier. At the time of the Agency Bulletin, Engram, Smith, and Schultz were the 6th, 10th, and 11th-ranked PPR TEs respectively. Engram would go on to finish as the TE 2 in 2023, Schultz finished as the TE 10, and Jonnu ended the season as the TE 17.

Learning from last season, analytics can help identify the top-performing players, but where a player finishes is determined by the situation. At week 7, Kelce, Hockenson, Andrews, and Waller were ahead of Engram in scoring. The Chiefs' offense has changed since the latter half of last season, putting special emphasis on their big-slot and RB roles (Rice & Pacheco in 23; buy Nuk & Hunt for 24). Hockenson for the most part maintained but suffered slightly with the loss of Cousins at QB. Andrews and Waller both lost significant time to injury. The situations revolving around these players mixed with the heavy emphasis the Jaguars placed on Engram resulted in a a career year for the TE. Schultz maintained his ranking thanks to his steady involvement in a high-powered offense fueled by the rise of superstar C.J. Stroud. Jonnu Smith was unfortunately dragged down by the dumpster fire situation in Atlanta. This was due to the poor play of QB Desmond Ridder and the poor coaching of Arthur Smith. 

With this knowledge in mind, the following assets are in consideration for your Rest-Of-Season Mission. Elite assets will not be included in this report given their formidable prices. The WoRP values are based upon 12 team leagues, start 10, 25-player rosters, PPR, Lineup, and Best Ball. Following the TE Bona Fides intel from the Week 6 Dossier, we will focus on the TE position for this week’s bulletin. Do not engage in a trade until the following intel & parameters have been carefully reviewed: 

WoRP - Scoring settings & team needs will dictate which assets to pursue. WoRP is a valuable resource in not only establishing priority targets but also secondary and backup options if necessary. This resource can only be accessed through: https://www.southharmonff.com/worp

Managers to Target - Begin negotiations with managers on the opposite side of the standings. If your roster is rebuilding, prioritize trading with teams in the middle who are desperate to contend & whose picks have higher upside. Managers at the bottom of the standings will become more eager to trade away their players to acquire picks as the season progresses. If your roster is in the middle, negotiate with other middling teams. If you are unable to acquire players to contend, then adapt and pursue the other direction with acquiring picks.

Scouting Weeks 12-17 - Prioritize the players with the best matchups during the most critical stage of the season.  

FantasyCalc/KeepTradeCut - Where an asset ranks in the field ultimately determines its value. Dynasty Rankings and The Trade Database (which lists the most recent acquisitions of the asset of interest) are invaluable resources in leveraging suitable deals.

TE

Image created by T-Rock

George Kittle is on pace to have the best year of his career. He currently leads all TEs in 16.9 Points Per Game (PPR), 2.02 Yards Per Team Pass Attempt, and 12 Red Zone Targets. These achievements are especially significant given their high correlation with TE1 finishes (66.67% of TEs who are top-12 in these categories finish as top-12 TEs). In terms of WoRP, Kittle is the TE1 in both Lineup and Best Ball formats. In terms of situation, few come close to what Kittle has in San Fran. With Aiyuk out for the season, Deebo in and out of the lineup, and the status of CMC being up in the air, all of Shanahan’s brainpower has been poured into making Kittle the cornerstone of this offense. At 51 trips, the 49ers lead the NFL in red zone trips, which has been a key factor in Kittle’s rise in 2024. The only other TE that outscored Kittle in our research is Brock Bowers, who is the TE1 in Dynasty. At TE7 prices on KTC, Kittle is going to command 1st+ draft pick trade compensation. Outside of acquiring a top 10 WR or RB, few other assets are going to make the impact Kittle will for your roster.

Image created by T-Rock

Hunter Henry is enjoying his best season since 2021 and the second-best of his entire career. He isn’t elite in any particular category, but what makes Hunter interesting is that he was the ONLY TE who was above average in every statistic of our process, which placed him as the TE8 in our rankings. He is the TE16 in WoRP for lineup leagues, but surprisingly the TE6 in Best Ball. In terms of situation, the Patriots are one of the worst franchises in 2024, making Henry a risky bet outside of Best Ball formats. His only competition for targets is Pop Douglas. Both players have separated themselves as the two most trusted receivers for their rookie QB, Drake Maye. Could Hunter Henry regress from his current TE6 ranking the same way Jonnu Smith did last season? Yes, it’s possible given the state of the Patriots, but unlikely given the far better QB play we are likely to see from Maye compared to Ridder. At TE23 prices on KTC, and not likely costing more than 1x-2x 3rds, Hunter Henry is a sneaky value in best ball leagues.   

Image created by T-Rock

Zach Ertz has been a consistent performer throughout his long career, and 2024 has been no different. In his 12th campaign, Ertz is tied for second amongst TEs with 7 Red Zone targets, he is fifth with 19.7% Air Yards, and has the fourth highest ADOT with 8.6 yards. Being a red zone and downfield threat are two of the most important roles a TE can play that is of high value for fantasy managers. As far as the environment, the Commanders have been a pleasant surprise in 2024. Jayden Daniels and Kliff Kingsbury have joined together to create one of the best offenses in the NFL, powered by a dynamic run game with Daniels, Brian Robinson, and Austin Ekeler. Despite being a run-first team, the Washington offense isn’t afraid to utilize the arm talent of Daniels, who routinely makes pin-point throws to Ertz and Terry McLaurin. Ertz won’t wow WoRP truthers as the TE18 for lineup leagues, or as the TE16 in best ball formats, but TEs are not a position of high value worthy of premium capital. That is why as the TE32 on KTC, and costing nothing more than 1-2x 4ths, Zach Ertz is the cheapest TE1 for 2024. The most savvy dynasty players will pay for both Ertz and his heir apparent, Ben Sinnott, who was one of the top prospects in the 2024 Draft.

TE Gambles

The TE position has been down compared to previous years due to the lower volume of passing this season. For managers who are willing to take the gamble, players like T.J. Hockenson, Evan Engram, and Jake Ferguson have high upside and have proven to be league-winners in previous years. Players like Cade Otton and David Njoku are both in unique situations with clear upsides but carry enough red flags that kept them off the Agency Bulletin. The same can be said of Dallas Goedert, Cole Kmet, and Tucker Kraft, who have all played well but operate in crowded offenses. All of these assets ranked in the top half of our process and are worthwhile for you to pursue. One last note - if this is Travis Kelce’s last year, pick up Noah Gray as a 2025 play.

Special Operations

The Agency’s Special Operations department has one mission: to fulfill Fantasy Football contracts. To meet the rigorous mission requirements, the Agency utilizes technology custom-built by our research and development for the solicitor’s request. Our elite-tier operators train for the most difficult missions in the world and have an unparalleled track record. If you wish to contract with our Agency, submit all solicitations via the “Chef T-Rock” thread in the “Big Meat Big Drank” channel of the Sauvage Tier.

Image created by T-Rock

Diontae Johnson is a 6th year vet out of Toledo, who was selected as the second pick in the third round of the 2019 NFL Draft by the Pittsburgh Steelers. Johnson does not possess any elite athleticism, with his best trait being his 4.53 speed (57th percentile). His career highlights include being named Second-team All-Pro his rookie year and a Pro Bowl in 2021.

Diontae has made a name for himself throughout his career as an elite separator who has thrived on the outside as an X-receiver. Per Matt Harmon of Reception Perception, “From 2019 to 2022, he took more than 88% of his sampled snaps outside and was on the line for at least 77% in every season. His rate of snaps on the line dropped to 60.6% and his outside snap rate to 76.3% in 2023. That is due to George Pickens emerging as a quality starting X-receiver. This allowed Johnson to move out of some of his old static deployment while playing more flanker and traveling into the slot at a higher rate.” Not much has changed for Diontae in Carolina, who has lined up out wide on 77.7% of his routes and in the slot on 22.3%. In his final season with the Steelers, Diontae cleared the NFL success rate on every pattern of all three field levels, leading to the coveted “All-Green” Reception Perception route chart.

Unfortunately, Diontae Johnson has suffered from some of the worst passing environments in the NFL throughout his career, but especially over the past two seasons with Kenny Pickett and Matt Canada in Pittsburgh, and now Bryce Young and Andy Dalton in Carolina. Through the first 7 weeks of 2024, Diontae Johnson is 30/58 for 357 yds, 3 TDs (2 rushes for 6 yds), adding up to 84.3 PPR points. This is on par with his performance in previous seasons using the same time frame. It would seem that despite coach Canales’ intentions of making Diontae the focal point of the offense, there are far too many issues with the team that overshadow his game plan.

Taking a deeper dive into the WR’s analytics:

• PPG (PPR) - 12 pts (32nd amongst NFL WRs)

• Target Share - 24.8% (13th)

• Air Yards Share - 37.8% (15th)

• YAC/R - 3.03 yds (83rd)

• Yards/Route Run - 1.73 (54th)

• Tgts/Route Run - 0.27 (18th)

• ADOT - 9.9 yds (78th)

• Contested Catches - 3 (28th-tie)

• Rec Yds/Tm Pass Att - 1.59 (40th)

• 1st Downs/Route Run - 0.097 (33rd)

• QB PFF Grades - Dalton: 67.4 (18th), Young: 38.9 (39th)

• Hayden Winks’ HPPR Rank (Production) - 29th

• Hayden Winks’ EXP Rank (Expectation) - 22nd

• Hayden Winks’ WR Team Usage - 26.5 Expected Points (18th)

• WoRP Lineup (12TM, SF, Start 10) - 0.655 Total WoRP (20th), 0.094 WoRP/G (35th)

• WoRP Best Ball (12TM, SF, Start 10) - 0.583 Total WoRP (19th), 0.083 WoRP/G (36th)

In conclusion, our analysis believes that Diontae as a WR talent merits a ranking much closer to WR20 than the WR43 ranking he currently has on KTC. However, with that said, Diontae Johnson’s proficiency as a route-running expert does not translate into the big play ability necessary for fantasy stardom. Not to mention, the Panthers are the worst team in the NFL, with a multi-year rebuild ahead of them, but not bad enough to secure the #1 overall pick necessary to draft a franchise QB. With a decent offensive line, Carolina’s best path is to build an offense and defense competent enough to lure a solid veteran QB via free agency (Kirk Cousins type). Until his situation changes, Diontae Johnson is not an asset worth pursuing and will likely continue to lose value throughout his fantasy career.   

Works Cited

• FantasyPros

• PFF

• Fantasy Points Data

• PlayerProfiler

• Diontae Johnson 2023 Player Profile - Reception Perception by Matt Harmon

https://receptionperception.com/diontae-johnson-2023-player-profile/

• NFL Week 7 Recap - Fantasy Usage Model by Hayden Winks

https://underdognetwork.com/football/analysis/nfl-week-7-recap-fantasy-usage-model-2024

The Dossier

Image created by DK

WK 6 - Top 2024 Tight Ends

The Silence of the Tight Ends

All good things to those who wait.

Hannibal Lecter - The Silence of the Lambs

Image created by T-Rock

Tough Love

“Babe! I just got a raise! Aren’t you proud of me?” my wife asks.

“That’s nice babe, but Nico Collins is on IR and I don’t know how long my teams can hold on without Tyreek Hill producing,” I reply.

“Babe, don’t worry. Everyone loves ya and you're doing an amazing job at work! You should be proud!” she responds. 

“The only thing I'm proud of is drafting Jake Ferguson, who is single-handedly keeping my team afloat!” I say looking down in shame.

“Oh babe, everything is going to be ok,” she says as she stirs my morning Metamucil. 

I do not deserve this woman, making the sting of my failures all the more unbearable. I want to be great, but damn, it's a lot of work. But what can I do about it? What would my dad do?

“You need to stop crying and work harder!” his voice echoes in my head. “Put down the Slim Jim, that’s your fourth one already! Wake up at 4 am like Hugh Jackman and start training like the Wolverine! Dig deeper into your spreadsheets and write something worth a damn! Perhaps when you have a 6-pack, your wife and others will respect you.”

“But Dad,” I reply. “If I do all this work, I won’t get much quality time with my wife and friends.”

“Overrated!” he retorts. “Trust me, son, if you work yourself to death, hardly see your loved ones, and let her buy whatever she wants at Costco, that’s the only way you’re going to turn your fantasy fortunes and marriage around.”

“Thanks, Dad.” 

TE Bona Fides 

The Tight End position is unlike any other asset operating in the field given the extreme difficulty in identifying the top prospects outside of the elite. With our rigorous and proven standards, only the cream of the crop makes it through this Agency’s TE Camp.

Baseline

PPG (PPR): Courtesy of FantasyPros

1. George Kittle - 17.3 PPG

2. Brock Bowers - 13.8 PPG

3. Cole Kmet - 12.2 PPG

3.  Trey McBride - 12.2 PPG  

5.  Dallas Goedert - 10.8 PPG

6.  Tucker Kraft - 9.9 PPG

6.  Evan Engram - 9.9 PPG

Strong Indicators

Targets Share: Courtesy of Fantasy Points Data

1. Trey McBride - 25.7%

2. Evan Engram - 24.6%

3. Brock Bowers - 22.2%

4. George Kittle - 21.9%

5. Dalton Kincaid - 18.9%

6. Travis Kelce - 18.8%

Yards Per Team Pass Attempt: Courtesy of PlayerProfiler

1. Dallas Goedert - 1.92 yds

2. Evan Engram - 1.88 yds

3. Trey McBride - 1.83 yds

3.  George Kittle - 1.83 yds

5.  Brock Bowers - 1.81 yds

6.  Cole Kmet - 1.45 yds

Red Zone Targets: Courtesy of FantasyPros

1. George Kittle - 11 Tgts

2. Hunter Henry - 6 Tgts

2.  Isaiah Likely - 6 Tgts

2.  Colby Parkinson - 6 Tgts

2.  Cade Otton - 6 Tgts

Receiving Snaps Per Game (running a receiving route): Courtesy of PFF

1. Tyler Conklin - 34.83

2. Dalton Schultz - 33.17

3. Travis Kelce - 32.2

3.  Jake Ferguson - 32.2

5.  Cade Otton - 32

6.  Noah Fant - 31.83

Fair Indicators

Air Yards %: Courtesy of Fantasy Points Data

1. Travis Kelce - 27.8%

2. Trey McBride - 23.4%

3. Brock Bowers - 21.8%

4. Zach Ertz - 20%

5. Dalton Kincaid - 18%

6. George Kittle - 17.5%

Yards Per Route Run: Courtesy of Fantasy Points Data

1. Dallas Goedert - 2.51 yds

2. Brock Bowers - 2.37 yds

3. Evan Engram - 2.28 yds

4. Will Dissly - 2.27 yds

5. Cole Kmet - 2.26 yds

6. Foster Moreau - 2.15 yds

Targets Per Route Run: Courtesy of Fantasy Points Data

1. Evan Engram - 0.3 tgts

2. Brock Bowers - 0.29 tgts

2.  Will Dissly - 0.29 tgts

4.  Trey McBride - 0.28 tgts

5.  Jonnu Smith - 0.27 tgts

6.  George Kittle - 0.25 tgts

Faint Indicators 

Average Depth of Target: Courtesy of Fantasy Points Data

1. Mark Andrews - 10.7 yds

1.  Brenton Strange - 10.7 yds

3.  Foster Moreau - 9.9 yds

4.  Isaiah Likely - 9.7 yds

4.  Taysom Hill - 9.7 yds

6.  Zach Ertz - 8.6 yds

Pass Blocking % (Lowest %): Courtesy of PFF

1. Dallas Goedert - 0.7%

2. Mike Gesicki - 1.6%

3. Trey McBride - 1.9%

4. Jake Ferguson - 3.4%

5. Evan Engram - 3.6%

5.  Isaiah Likely - 3.6%

Yards After The Catch Per Reception: Courtesy of Fantasy Points Data

1. Tucker Kraft - 10.78 YAC

2. Sam LaPorta - 10.08 YAC

3. Dalton Kincaid - 7.57 YAC

4. Will Dissly - 7.23 YAC

5. Dallas Goedert - 6.96 YAC

6. David Njoku - 6.9 YAC

Considerations from Underdog

TE Team Usage (Expected Fantasy Points) (Wks 3-6): Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog

1. Chiefs (Travis Kelce) - 13.1 pts

2. Rams (Colby Parkinson) - 12.4 pts

3. Eagles (Dallas Goedert) - 11.7 pts

4. Jaguars (Engram & Strange) - 11.6 pts

5. Cowboys (Jake Ferguson) - 11.5 pts

6. Jets (Tyler Conklin) - 11.2 pts

HPPR (Production) Rank: Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog

1. George Kittle - 1st

2. Dallas Goedert - 2nd

3. Evan Engram - 3rd

4. Cole Kmet - 4th

5. Tucker Kraft - 5th

6. Brock Bowers - 6th

EXP (Expectation) Rank: Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog

1. George Kittle - 1st

2. Dallas Goedert - 2nd

3. Colby Parkinson - 3rd

4. Evan Engram - 4th

5. Trey McBride - 5th

6. Travis Kelce - 6th

Results

Overall:

1. George Kittle - 51 pts

2. Brock Bowers - 50 pts

3. Trey McBride - 48 pts

3.  Dallas Goedert - 48 pts

5.  Evan Engram - 47 pts

6.  Travis Kelce - 46 pts

Works Cited

• FantasyPros

• PFF

• Fantasy Points Data

• PlayerProfiler

• NFL Week 6 Recap - Fantasy Usage Model by Hayden Winks

https://underdognetwork.com/football/analysis/nfl-week-6-recap-fantasy-usage-model-2024

The Dossier

Image created by DK