Week 5 Dossier

Careless Whispers

Briefing

We are 1/3 of the way through the fantasy regular season. Catch your breath and compose yourself. Newer field agents will look upon their fantasy rosters drunk with power, drowning in dismay, or abandoned to oblivion. The top operators on the other hand are keen to observe that a key shift for the remainder of the season is taking place. Without having to be instructed, they understand that this is the time to move off of the risky assets that have overperformed for the established assets that have so far underperformed and to hold onto valuable draft capital so that they can buy the few, surviving difference-makers later in the season. 

It is at this time that your superior officers prove their reliability. There will be some who spend most of their resources victory-lapping players that they claim they have been “in-on” all along, but the evidence they cite appears to be heavily doctored. These same individuals toss their views on assets like the current of the sea, constantly going back and forth on the player being either the best or worst prospect that they have ever seen. Lastly, they are unable to aid and protect you with actionable intel on how to move forward. These officers are Provocateurs, and they ultimately lead you to get burned or worse. Do not allow yourself to be deceived (either by yourself or others) and remember that victory comes from being one step ahead.

Usage Activity

Please examine carefully the following usage activity reports we have gathered on players from week 5:

Bears vs. Commanders - Justin Field’s maximum effort against the Broncos in week 4 carried over in his week 5 matchup versus the Commanders. Justin’s 125.3 Passer Rating was 3rd best amongst QBs this week and his 4 passing TDs were tied with Brock Purdy for the most. It is interesting to note that Field’s fantasy success as a top 3 QB over the last two weeks has come through the air and not through the ground (only 15 rush attempts for 82 yds combined in wk 4 & 5). Justin’s development as a passer is due largely to the utilization of WR DJ Moore, whose 230 yards receiving were the most in week 5 and his 3 receiving TDs were tied with Ja’Marr Chase for the most. Moore now has the 6th highest PFF grade amongst all WRs in the league (86.6). As great as the last two weeks have looked for Fields, what happens if DJ Moore misses time? Darnell Mooney has blanked on 3/5 games this season and now the rushing attack is banged up with Khalil Herbert potentially missing time. If you are unsure of Justin Fields, this may be your best shot at moving off of him.
Sam Howell and the Commanders have adopted a very different strategy from the Bears in distributing their passing targets to as many different weapons as possible. There were 11 different Washington receivers who were targeted in week 5, 9 in week 4, 7 in week 3, 10 in week 2, and 7 in week 1. Given this offensive philosophy, it is highly unlikely that any single Commanders receiver will distinguish themselves in 2023. However, this also means that Logan Thomas and Curtis Samuel may receive more targets than the average TE and WR3.

Texans vs. Falcons - In a game that was set up for the Falcons to dominate on the ground (Texans have 2nd worst graded rush defense according to PFF), the dynamic duo Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier only managed 86 rushing yards on 31 combined carries. Desmond Ridder entered this game with a 46.78 average passing grade per PFF through the first four weeks of the season and was facing the 4th highest rated coverage group in the league per PFF. In a game that needed Ridder to step up, he went on to have the best game of his career with 28/37 for 329 yards passing, 1 TD through the air and an additional TD on the ground. Kyle Pitts was the major beneficiary of this career passing performance: Pitts’ 7 catches on 11 targets for 87 yards on 53% of the snaps was one of his best games since his rookie year. Drake London (6/9 for 78 yds, 86% snaps) and Jonnu Smith (6/7 for 67 yds, 64% snaps) enjoyed solid outings as well.
Nico Collins’ 88% snap share in week 5 was the highest he had registered all season (the previous high was 76% of snaps). Unfortunately, Nico only caught 3 passes on 4 targets for 39 yards. Nico has the capability of being a very good WR, especially in terms of his explosiveness with his high 8.6 YAC/R. But he is currently being valued as a late 2024 1st as the 22nd-ranked WR on Keep Trade Cut. Even though he is operating on an ascending offense with CJ Stroud, we advise using your 1st round picks on WRs who are a consistent focal point of their offense, and not on an asset who would be considered an upside #2 option on most other teams.

Panthers vs. Lions - An asset who is putting our profilers to the test is Adam Thielen. Ranked top 10 in most scoring formats, the 33-year-old vet is tied with Ja’Marr Chase for the most routes run at 211, and is being targeted on 22% of those routes. Thielen may not have many of the other attributes our agency looks for in a WR, but being ranked as the WR64 according to KTC, he is easily the cheapest WR buy given his usage and production.
After his 20/28 for 236 yards, 3 passing TDs, and 1 rushing TD performance, Jared Goff is now the highest-graded QB in the league by PFF at 88.6. A top 10 QB in most scoring formats, he leads a team that is also graded top 10 in nearly every offensive and defensive category on PFF. Goff is tied with Josh Allen for the 3rd highest yards per pass attempt (8 yds), the highest adjusted completion percentage - the % of aimed passes thrown on target (completions + drops / aimed) (82.9%), is 5th in adjusted QBR (71.0), and is 6th in passer rating (104.4). Given his situation and array of pass-catching weapons, Jared Goff is an easy buy as the QB16 at the price of a late 2024 1st.

Titans vs. Colts - Cut from the similar worn-out cloth as Adam Thielen, DeAndre Hopkins converted his 11 targets into 8 receptions for 140 receiving yards in week 5. Like Thielen, he is easily the most trustworthy WR on his team and is far out-producing his WR57 ranking on KTC. His 30% target share is the 9th best in the league, has a respectable ADOT of 14.45, has the 6th most air yards at 578, and has the 19th highest receiving grade on PFF amongst WRs (80.4). The path to championship glory in 2023 will be paved with crusty WRs.
In a game that brimmed with excitement at the return of one of the sport’s most dynamic players, the reports of Zack Moss’s death were greatly exaggerated. Zack has been one of the best RBs since he took over the starting role in week 2 - he has the 4th highest fantasy points per game average amongst RBs (21.4 PPR pts) and the 3rd most rushing yards (445 yards). Given the RB usage and practices that teams are implementing around the league, it is likely that Moss has earned a 35-45% snap share moving forward alongside Jonathan Taylor.

Giants vs. Dolphins - Very rarely is our agency faced with monitoring a situation as frightening as the New York Giants offense. Their 4th worst PFF passing rating, bottom-ranked o-line rating (both in pass and run blocking), and 2nd worst receiving rating have created a perfect storm of awfulness that is difficult to comprehend (worst overall offense in the NFL). The one and only asset that I am willing to risk myself getting caught within the blast radius of this powder keg is Saquon Barkley, who still offers top 10 upside.
De’Von Achane has 90.2% of the rushing yards on only 38.38% of the rush attempts of league leader Christian McCaffrey (38 att - 460 yds vs. 99 att - 510 yds). Tyreek Hill has 651 receiving yards through 5 games and has reclaimed the accolade for the fastest play recorded this season - a 22.01 mph 64-yard reception. The Giants were a tinderbox ready to be set ablaze by the Dolphins offense.

Saints vs. Patriots - The top field agents in the world understand that the margin for error in determining mission success or failure is razor-thin. Top-tier operator Chris Olave unfortunately found himself out of position on a number of key plays that would have otherwise proved to be a far more productive day for the wideout. Keep tabs on Kendre Miller, who registered 12 carries and 4 catches for 90 total yards on 36% of the snaps. 
It is only week 5, but reviewing some of these offenses has quickly devolved into a game of Reverse Russian Roulette - it’s as if one more awful team is being loaded into the chamber with every week that passes and we are not equipped to describe another atrocious offense like the New England Patriots. 

Ravens vs. Steelers - Lamar Jackson was 22/38 for 236 yards and 1 INT and yet, he is now ranked behind only Jared Goff as the 2nd best passer in the NFL according to PFF. We are beginning to suspect that buried deep Lamar’s PFF grade is a sympathy rating of 100.00, which he was given after his receivers dropped 7 targets in their week 5 divisional bout, including 2 TDs.
We would advise holding off on acquiring George Pickens, who despite having a solid performance (6/10, 130 yards, 1 TD), will likely regress in usage once Diontae Johnson returns and is still on an offense that ranks only ahead of the Giants as one of the worst units in the league.

Eagles vs. Rams - The Rams threw caution to the wind and wasted no time in reacclimating Cooper Kupp into the Los Angeles offense - 8/12 for 118 receiving yards on a 95% snap share.
A.J. Brown is now only behind Tyreek Hill and Brandon Aiyuk as the 3rd highest-rated WR on PFF (90.3 grade) and has accounted for the highest number of air yards amongst receivers (669).   

Waiver Targets

We recommend that you consult with Spymaster Vanek, codename “Whisper,” and carefully review his latest intel from the America’s Game report. In terms of FAAB bidding, it’s best to review your league’s previous waiver behavior to best navigate the wire. The waiver wire will become more bare as the season continues, especially in best ball formats.

• Emari Demercado - 29% rostership, spend up to 2% FAAB (The Undercover Operate strikes again)

• Trenton Irwin - 3% rostership, 0% FAAB (trailed only Ja’Marr Chase in terms of production with 8/10, 60 yds)

Trade Assets

You are scheduled to rendezvous at the corner of Euclid Avenue with our top courier, Officer ATM. At his signal (the flashing of one of his signature coins), you are to discreetly secure the Money Moves package and make your way back to the safe house awaiting further instruction.  

Week 4 Dossier

Settling In

Briefing

It is only natural that as highly-trained professionals, our agents will feel the urge to exercise their newfound abilities and test themselves against other combatants. As strong as this inclination is, it is essential to repress this outward course of action. Remember that our battle isn’t waged through superficial displays of strength but beneath the surface through meticulous planning, the subtle allocation of resources, the hoarding of intel, and remaining patient for the perfect opportunity to strike. Suffice it to say, that the agents who survive the longest do not reveal themselves by investing multiple high-priced assets (like 1st round picks) so early into the season. Dig in - we have a long season ahead.

Usage Activity

A player’s usage can prove valuable in determining our season-long plans and moves. Here are some points of interest worth considering:

Lions vs. Packers - There are a number of traits that our RB program uses to assess candidates. They include receiving, rushing, production, usage, and athleticism metrics. Jahmyr Gibbs checks the receiving and athleticism boxes with his targets per route run (28%), target share (13.5%*), Breakaway Run Rate (9.7%*), 99th percentile 40-yard dash, and 92nd percentile speed score. But in terms of every other major RB category, Gibbs is not making the cut compared to others: Fantasy PPG (9.7), routes/g (15*), Yds Created Per Touch (3.32*), Evaded Tackles/g (3.67*), Yds After Contact per attempt (3.15), Dominator Rating (8.6%), Snap Share (46%*), or Red Zone touches (5*). We have not received updated reports that account for week 4 for the metrics with an asterisk, but given the 37% snap share, 8 rush attempts for 40 yards, and 4/5 for 11 yards receiving in week 4, we anticipate not much has improved for the backup RB. Unless David Montgomery misses time or Gibbs sees +50% of the snaps or receives significantly more touches in the red zone, he remains a sell.
The Packers gave their RBs only 10 rushing attempts in this game, which only amounted to 29 yards. Aaron Jones had 1 catch on 2 targets for -4 yards. The running game should be more productive next week against the Las Vegas Raiders. Green Bay will likely be without Luke Musgrave as he makes his way through the maze, but Christian Watson will look to make his presence felt.           

Dolphins vs. Bills - The Miami Special Forces were unsuccessful in their raid on the Bills compound. The unit was unable to apprehend Bills QB Josh Allen, who had a top-3 fantasy performance of his career with 21/25, 320 passing yards, 4 passing TDs, 17 yards rushing, and 1 rushing TD. Miami was also unable to neutralize Stefon Diggs, who had a top-5 PPR performance of his career with 6 catches on 7 targets for 120 yards and 3 TDs.
De’Von Achane fought admirably in this operation with 101 yards and 2 TDs on only 8 carries. Achane led the ground attack with 60% of the snaps ahead of Mostert who had 43%. Braxton Berrios has just as many targets (16) as Jaylen Waddle through the first 4 weeks, has one more catch than Waddle with 13, and is right behind Jaylen in air yards (175 yds vs. 185 yds) and ADOT (10.29 vs. 11.38) despite running 10 less routes as Waddle.

Vikings vs. Panthers - This was not the week to buy the hype on Kirk Cousins - 12/19 for 139 yards, 2 TDs, and 2 INTs. Once thought to be detained at a CIA Black Site, the Vikings RBs were spotted running efficiently in this matchup: Alexander Mattison - 17 carries for 95 yards on a 69% snap share, Cam Akers - 5 carries for 40 yards on a 29% snap share.
The Panthers are heading towards a complete collapse of state after their massive investment in the QB arms race. The offensive infrastructure the Carolina brass has surrounded Bryce Young with ranks bottom 10 in pass blocking, run blocking, receiving, and rushing according to PFF. This has culminated in Bryce performing as the 2nd worst PFF-graded QB (minimum 50 pass attempts) so far this season. It would appear that despite showing the capability to stage a QB coup d'état with Dalton, the Panthers have opted for a far more painful and exhausting approach to toughen the minds of their fans.

Broncos vs. Bears - Never has this agency witnessed a QB exert more effort to pass for 300 yards as we saw with Justin Fields in week 4. His 335 yards and 4 passing TDs were not only the best marks of any QB in week 4 but both were career highs for the signal caller. Khalil Herbert dominated the usage and production amongst the Bears RBs, with 18 carries for 103 yards rushing and 4 catches on 5 targets for 19 yards and 1 TD on 78% of the snaps.
Jaleel McLaughlin led all Broncos RBs with 7 carries for 72 yards rushing and 3 catches for 32 yards and 1 TD on 33% of the snaps. Russell Wilson currently has a 106.7 passer rating (3rd behind Purdy and Tua) and is in a 3-way tie for the 2nd most passing TDs (9) so far this season.

Bengals vs. Titans - The dismantling of the Cincinatti superpower has been all but subtle and covert; our agents close to the situation have reported high levels of turmoil and panic that can be heard clearly behind closed doors within the Bengals headquarters. These reports include accusations of the Bengals running the 4th worst offense in the NFL per PFF, the 6th worst overall defense in the league, the 7th worst pass blocking, the 8th worst run game, and to our utter shock the worst receiving grade of all 32 teams. After pushing our agents to infiltrate deeper, we are now receiving reports that Joe Burrow has the quickest time to throw of any QB in the league with at least 20 pass attempts (2.29 seconds), which we conclude Joe is doing out of self-preservation, and thus has led to the 3rd lowest ADOT (6.4 yds) amongst passers with at least 50 pass attempts (Bryce and Dak are tied with the lowest at 6.2 yds).
There are no further updates to report for the Tennessee Titans at this time.

Patriots vs. Cowboys - Dak Prescott’s league low ADOT has greatly benefited Jake Ferguson, who leads the Cowboys receivers on targets per route run at 27%. Running the same RB Trials for Tony Pollard as we conducted with Jahmyr Gibbs, Pollard was 8th or worse in every major category outside of red zone touches, in which he ranked 1st. But despite being tied with Derrick Henry for the 2nd most carries in the league (73 att) behind Christian McCaffrey and receiving so many goal line opportunities, Pollard only has 2 TDs so far through 4 weeks of games.
As average and somewhat disappointing Pollard has been, Rhamondre Stevenson’s latest performance has pushed him to where he no longer qualifies as a top 24 RB in PPG. Rhamondre’s 1.75 yards created after contact per attempt is tied with Trey Sermon for 92nd in the league amongst rushers.

Cardinals vs. 49ers - Brock Purdy’s 20/21 for 283 yds passing and 1 TD (plus 1 rushing TD) performance elevated him to being 3rd in the NFL in completion percentage (72.3%), 8th in yards passed (1,019 yds), 2nd in yards per attempt (9.1 yds), 1st in adjusted quarterback rating (84.6), and 1st in passer rating (115.1). Brock’s production currently ranks him in the top 12 amongst fantasy quarterbacks in most scoring formats so far this season. Millions of dollars in resources are being spent across the league in trying to capture and study the asset, who has put every agency’s evaluation process to the test.
Another quarterback who is far outperforming expectations is Joshua Dobbs, who since discovering the power to run, has put together a QB 5, 16, and 8 performance against some of the toughest defenses in the league the past 3 weeks.

Chiefs vs. Jets - Isiah Pacheco’s performance against the Jets was easily the best of his career - 20 attempts, 115 yards, 1 rushing TD, and 3 catches for 43 yards (60% snap share).
Zach Wilson apparently only plays well if the primetime lights are on, the competition is stiff, and he’s in front of his home crowd. Zach was 28/39 for 245 yards and 2 TDs.  Unfortunately, there is only one game remaining on the schedule that fits these parameters for the rest of the season (Nov 6th vs. the LA Chargers). Luckily the Jets have the fortune of visiting the Broncos next, who can turn any mere mortal into a fantasy super soldier.    

WR Interests

This agency devotes considerable resources to identifying and cultivating the most capable prospects for our most rigorous missions. We will begin our selection process by first assessing our WR candidates.

PPG (PPR) - There is a wide gap between the top WR in this category (Justin Jefferson - 25.8 pts) and the 12th best WR (Amon-Ra St. Brown - 17.4 pts).  The biggest surprises in this category are Puka Nacua (23.9 pts) and Nico Collins (20.7 pts).

Target Share - Davante Adams’ 40% target share is 5% ahead of the next best WR, Tyreek Hill. Puka is 3rd in the league with a 33% target share, and Zay Flowers is 10th in the NFL with a 29% target share.

Air Yards - Davante Adams once again leads the pack with 569 air yards through 4 weeks in the season. Closely behind Adams is Justin Jefferson with 565 air yards and Tyreek Hill with 548 air yards. Both Rams teammates Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell rank inside the top 12 in air yards at 467 and 395 air yards respectively.

Yards After The Catch/Per Reception - Nico Collins and Jaylen Waddle are both tied for 1st with 8.8 YAC/R, followed closely by Deebo Samuel with 8.3 YAC/R. There are 4 rookies that rank inside the top 12 of this category, including Zay Flowers (8 YAC/R), Marvin Mims (7.6 YAC/R), Rashee Rice (5.8 YAC/R), and Tank Dell (5.5 YAC/R).

Yards Per Route Run - Marvin Mims Jr. far outpaces every other WR in this category with his 6.21 yards per route run. Brandon Aiyuk ranks 2nd in the league at 4.57 yards per route run.

Targets Per Route Run - Davante Adams leads the NFL at 35% in this category when filtering for at least 30 routes ran. There are surprisingly two Kansas City Chiefs WRs that rank 3rd and 4th in the league in TPRR with Kadarius Toney (33%) and Rashee Rice (32%). 
 
Average Depth of Target - Marvin Mims Jr. has the highest ADOT (22.82 yards) amongst WRs when excluding WRs with less than 10 targets. There are two different Chiefs WRs who rank 2nd and 3rd in this category with Justin Watson (21.92 yds) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (18.2 yds).

QB PFF Grade - Tua Tagovailoa, Trevor Lawrence, and Jared Goff are the three highest graded passers in the NFL so far in 2023 according to PFF. The biggest surprise in PFF’s top 12 is Ryan Tannehill because he is freaking terrible.

Overall Score - Though Mike Evans wasn’t the best in any individual category, he ranked in the top 13 in every single category (a feat no other WR achieved) and is easily the most underrated WR this season. Keenan Allen also deserves recognition for performing as a top 5 receiver so far this year. The perception of Puka Nacua’s dominance is backed up by the numbers - he is performing like a top-6 WR. Marvin Mims Jr.'s big play ability makes him the perfect buy in best ball leagues. 

Waiver Targets

In terms of FAAB bidding, it’s best to review your league’s previous waiver behavior to best navigate the wire. 

• Jaleel McLaughlin - 50% rostership, spend up to 5% FAAB in BB (Given the high rostership, it would appear that this intel was leaked last week. Steakhouses appear to be the best lead we have in finding this Undercover Operative)

• Braxton Berrios - 32% rostership, 4% FAAB (carving out a role amidst other talented weapons)

• Jonnu Smith  - 19% rostership, 3% FAAB (has become the preferred target in the worst passing offense)

• Ronnie Rivers - 24% rostership, 3% FAAB (the Rams finally gave another RB a chance; Ronnie played decent)

• Nick Westbrook-Ikhine - 31% rostership, 0-1% FAAB (leads the Titans in routes, 2nd in targets)

• Andrew Ogletree - 2% rostership, 0% FAAB (ARich targets his TEs, Ogletree is currently the top-ranked PFF TE)

Trade Assets

Marvin Mims, Jayden Reed, Michael Wilson, and Rashee Rice are all rookie WRs with intriguing profiles and roles who finished inside the top 40 of the WR trials and can be possibly had for a 2nd +. Add one of these talented young players before their cost becomes prohibitive. As amazing as De’Von Achane has been (2nd only behind Christian McCaffrey in our RB Program), it’s best not to invest the elite trade capital these assets demand at this stage of the season. RBs especially have a tendency to end up like your favorite Game of Thrones character: not surviving through the whole season.

Worp Isn’t Predictive, Or Is It?

Prep: WoRP as A Predictive Model

We all know WoRP gives you past results, but if you just used WoRP as your rankings, how well would it work? Can WoRP predict the outcomes of individual players?

Well good thing for you, I went through and collected the data, and found out whether using WoRP to rank players for the season makes sense (or not). A small teaser: There is a scenario where it does make sense, or I wouldn’t be writing this article, would I?

HOw Accurate are WoRP PRedictions?

Sorry if you don’t like math, but we are going to need to learn a few things here. If it gets hard, I promise that if you make it to the end, it will make sense. You can always come back a re-read to clarify things later.

In statistics, you can measure the correlation between two datasets using a value called R-Squared. It doesn’t matter what its called, or where it comes from, but what does matter is that a value of 0 means there is no correlation between the datasets, and a value of 1 means that the datasets perfectly describe each other. To compare the accuracy of two predictive models, you can compare the R-Squared values and see which one is higher. Let’s do an example.

Let’s see how good of a predictor WoRP from 2021 is for 2022. I’m going to use WoRP/G So I don’t need to worry about the number of games someone played. Now, we need something to compare it to. Let’s compare it To each week of the 2022 season, and chart it. Because let’s be honest, without a chart, you weren’t reading all this anyway. 

Let’s put 2022 WoRP in Dark Blue, and 2021 WoRP in Light Green.

Ooh, so exciting I know. But what does this mean? If we are trying to predict the end of season WoRP/G value of an Individual player, by week 2 we already have enough data that using just those 2 weeks is better than using the entire previous season! Now that’s some predictive power!

BUt Wait, that’s Not Entirely Predicting

That’s right, we forgot about something really really important. If we are using Week 1 and Week 2 data to predict how players finish on the season long WoRP results, part of our prediction data is in our result! As we get further and further into the season, our "predictions" are more accurate, because we are just regurgitating the same data more than we are predicting the rest of the season. That doesn’t help us as fantasy players. I don’t want to know that Kirk Cousins will be QB 1 Across the whole season, I want to know if he will be QB 1 the rest of the season! Instead of making our prediction on the end of season results, lets only do it for the rest of the season. Lets make another graph, but only predicting future weeks instead of past weeks. And lets compare to the Previous year’s WoRP Data.

Once Again, Let’s put 2022 WoRP in Dark Blue and 2021 WoRP in Light Green

You know, that’s exactly what we expected. At the beginning of the season, WoRP predictive accuracy is poor, but it steadily increases as the season goes on, until about week 5, where it levels off, and then as we get closer to the end of the season, and trying to use Weeks 1-16 to predict Week 17, our predictions fall off and become worse!

Of course that regression happens, there are fewer games, and fantasy football has extremely high variance week to week. No matter how good your model is, trying to predict one week of the season is going to go poorly. That’s why we use WoRP to look at the value across the whole season, and not just one week.

But what about the previous year? After week 4 using the previous year’s WoRP data to predict the future year was worse, so once again, we have shown it only takes a few weeks before this year’s WoRP is better than last year’s!

Was 2022 an outlier?

This is easy to answer: No! In fact both 2020 and 2021 have similar charts to 2022. The only difference is that in 2020, In week 2, that year’s WoRP was a better predictor than using 2019s. I’ll chalk that one up to the covid season throwing a wrench in everything.

Now We are Cooking: WoRP vs ECR

Now that we know how to compare the predictive power of WoRP to itself, lets compare to something better. Let’s do it against the FantasyPros Rest of Season Expert Consensus Rankings for each week. Why those? Because it gives a week by week updated ranking, and I can find that data. (Big shout-out to the NFLVERSE and FFVERSE Ecosystem for having this data saved!)

Before we start charting though, we have 2 problems. 

1. FantasyPros only gives positional ranks, not WoRP value predictions, so we need to use the ranks from the WoRP tool, rather than the actual value results. That is fine, but is going to change our numbers a bit.

2. Our previous charts covered all positions, and the FantasyPros ROS ECR Data is only by position. So we are going to have to make multiple charts, one for each position. Sorry about the graph spam, but I promise, this will be the last, and most important group of data.

Methodology note: We are going to only use players who are ranked in the top 24 QBs, 40 RBs, 50 WRs, and 12 TEs. Outside of those ranges, the WoRP vs ranked values vary so drastically it makes the numbers unusable. And that number of players covers most of the starters you care about anyway.

One last time, we will graph the WoRP Ranking Model in Dark Blue, and the FP ECR Model in Light Green.

That’s a lot of charts, and I’m sure you looked and studied them all very closely. Just kidding, I’m just going to tell you what I see now because you probably stopped looking after the second one and hoped I would tell you the answers. Let's break it down by position.

QUarterback

There were points during 2022 and 2020 where WoRP out-predicted the Experts. That’s awesome! But why did WoRP not outpredict in 2021, and can we predict accurately in 2023? Let’s used what we learned in the first part; WoRP is best at predicting from week 4-Week 14. That fits with the times the WoRP models were predicting better than the experts, Weeks 8-11 in 2022 and 11-13 in 2020. Both of these timeframes are right on that critical time right before trade deadlines, so we want to pay attention to get an advantage there.

How will we know whether this is happening in 2023? In both 2022 and 2020, there were clear tier breaks at the quarterback position, Top 4 in 2022, Top 12 in 2020. In 2021, there wasn’t anything close to either of those two years. If we look at the week-by-week WoRP charts from each of those years, the tier breaks began to appear around those times, week 8 in 2022 and week 11 in 2020. However, it didn't take long for the experts to catch on to the trend and start beating the WoRP models again.

If we start to see a split in 2023, then I would start looking to WoRP to Rank my QBs instead of the experts. The experts will catch up shortly, so you only have a few week window to take advantage of this information and get one over on your leaguemates.

Running Back and Wide Receiver

I’m grouping these together, because I’m analyzing that WoRP is not a good predictor for either of these positions. Just look at the actual R-Squared values compared to the quarterbacks. Values are consistently in 0.1-0.2 range, which is a really really bad correlation. Even the experts aren’t faring that well. Any time the WoRP is better than the experts, I’m attributing to dumb luck rather than an actual consistent pattern.

Tight Ends

Lets start with that tight ends are not well represented by WoRP, or by the experts. Just look at the spikes up and down across 2020 and 2022. In 2021, WoRP and the experts go from being a horrendous predictor to an amazing one halfway through the season. Why might that be? Because of the methodology of using only top 12 tight ends, both in the prediction model and the valid results. In reality, there weren’t that many tight ends that hit both these thresholds, and the total number of valid players bounced all over the place week by week, hence why you see huge spikes in predictability.

This just shows another win for #TESDONTMATTER, my new phrase for how to value tight ends in lineup leagues. Outside of your top tier tight ends, anyone else can be top 12, and there isn’t a good predictor for who will actually get there. Don’t keep value in the tight end position, and get the cheapest guy with a decent snap share, routes run, or targets, and just let it roll from there. You might score some 0s, but at least you had a guy worth nothing scoring a 0 and not a guy worth a 2nd.

Eating it All Up: What can we take away?

What have we learned? Until we find different ways of interpreting WoRP data, WoRP isn’t great at predicting outcomes for individual players over experts who can insert all the context around different situations, teams, etc. With one exception.

If we begin to see a clear tier break at the quarterback position, we can count on WoRP to tell us that those quarterbacks are going to be difference makers at their position, before the experts catch on to the trend. It’s not much, but it is something.

So if you have been using WoRP to project individual players, you better stop now. If you want to predict with it, paste your rankings over the results and go from there. Its better than just blindly following the names in the tool. Only use WoRP for Relative positional value. The player names in the tool are to make it easier for you to match tiers of value vs tiers of production. Don’t use them as a roadmap for the future.

Thanks for reading,

Koopa

@dynastykoopa on X

koopatroopa8 on Discord

Week 3 Dossier

Agent of Chaos

Briefing

Each week is another opportunity to gather critical intel, stay ahead of the opposition, and accumulate valuable resources. It will be difficult for untrained managers to remain disciplined in the face of a losing record and refrain from employing drastic counter-measures when they should remain resolved and undeterred. When in doubt, hold onto your draft capital until further instruction.

Field Surveillance

The following intel was gathered from our agents scattered abroad at multiple week 3 operations. Please review the following intel carefully:

Disappointing QB Play - Much discourse has been had around QBs, such as Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Dak Prescott, and Daniel Jones, who have all woefully underperformed with respect to where they were drafted by managers during the off-season. If spending a premium pick on these saboteurs wasn’t enough, they have also brought down all of the playmakers on their respective offenses as well. Panic and confusion have ensued and it is amidst the chaos that our agents of influence operate at their best. Take full advantage of this buy window by selling your over-performing QB 2/3 for an underperforming QB 1.   

Usage Activity

The usage of a player is a valuable piece of intel. Here are some points of interest worth considering: 

Colts vs. Ravens - Zay Flowers has 21 catches on 25 targets through the first 3 weeks of the season. However, he only ran 1 route that was 10+ yards downfield against the Colts; every other route was about 5 yards or less. Zay will likely overtake TE Mark Andrews as the top receiver in this offense; Mark needs to get more separation and neither receiver is being utilized well by OC Todd Monken.
Zack Moss has 48 carries since he took over as the lead RB for Indianapolis in week 2, which is tied with Tony Pollard for the most rushes during that span. Josh Downs played on 80% of the snaps in week 3 and is second on the team in both targets per route run at 20% (Michael Pittman 25%, Alec Pierce 10%) and targets at 24 (Pittman 34, Pierce 12).

Titans vs. Browns - Derrick Henry’s glory is fading further - his 3.2 yards per carry is one of the worst amongst RBs with a minimum of 30 carries (but still ahead of Rhamondre Stevenson 2.9 YPC, AJ Dillon 2.7, Dameon Pierce 2.5, & Josh Jacobs 2.4). Ryan Tannehill is challenging Justin Fields, Desmond Ridder, and Zach Wilson as the worst starting QB in the league. The Titans will not be able to feature Henry if their passing game is atrocious. We advise trading away DeAndre Hopkins before his cover is completely blown - hopefully, he was the only Titan you rostered.
Do not fall for the Jerome Ford 2 TD honey pot, who only managed 18 rushing yards on 10 carries and 56% snap share. He is likely tied up in a 3-way committee with Kareem Hunt and Pierre Strong moving forward. We don’t recommend spending a 2nd round pick to acquire Ford at this time.

Falcons vs. Lions - Kyle Pitts led his team in both targets (9) and receiving yards (41) on a 78% snap share in week 3; Jonnu Smith was right behind Pitts with 8 targets and 37 yards on a 72% snap share. 
We can confirm Sam LaPorta is indeed the TE1 of this class as our off-season reports suggested. LaPorta is second in TE targets (22) behind only TJ Hockenson (27) on a 74% snap share in week 3. The only TE’s with a higher PFF receiving grade are Will Mallory, Pharaoh Brown, Will Dissly, Josh Oliver, and Brycen Hopkins… so Sam LaPorta is essentially the highest-graded TE so far in 2023. Only 4 Lions were targeted in this game, the fewest number of players of any team in week 3. Jahmyr Gibbs handled the Lion’s share of RB carries with 17 (Goff - 5, Reynolds - 4) and was efficient (80 yds, 4.7 avg), but only managed 2 yards receiving on 1 catch from 2 targets. Gibb’s Red Zone touches, one of the most important elements commonly found in fantasy’s top RBs, will continue to limit his upside; he has 1 RZ touch through 3 weeks (52nd in NFL). The RB position is the most expendable asset in our line of work - trade the #3 RB in Dynasty for 2x 2024 1sts or a 1st that figures to be top 3 next year before David Montgomery returns. 

Saints vs. Packers - On his NFL regular season debut, Kendre Miller out-carried Tony Jones 9 to 8 on a limited snap-share (34%), but did not produce to the level his talent profile would indicate. Despite this performance and Alvin Kamara returning to active duty, Kendre still carries enough upside that makes him a secretive buy-low candidate.
Luke Musgrave continues to remain a focal point of the Packer's offense, leading his team with 6 receptions on an 86% snap-share. However, it was Romeo Doubs who lead all Packers WR’s on snaps (86%), targets (12), receptions (5), yards (73), and had the lone receiving TD. Romeo and Jayden Reed lead the league in Red Zone fantasy points at 23 and 20 PPR points respectively. In defiance of a 53.1% completion percentage (2nd worst in the NFL, ahead of Zach Wilson’s 52.4%), Jordan Love remains a top 10 fantasy QB. It will be interesting to observe Love’s full command of the offense once Christian Watson and Aaron Jones return from injury. 

Texans vs. Jaguars - Our cryptanalysts have been unsuccessful in decyphering the enigma Trevor Lawrence. Though we can confirm that Trevor’s fantasy points per game are behind the likes of Justin Fields, Jimmy Garoppolo, Baker Mayfield, and even Joshua Dobbs in specific formats, this somehow conflicts with PFF, which grades Lawrence’s passing as one of the best in the league, behind only the Miami duo of Mike White and Tua Tagovailoa. We recommend continual surveillance of the situation in hopes that Trevor “Targaryen” will eventually come out of hiding.
There is a 3-way split amongst the Houston WRs. Nico Collins, Robert Woods, and Tank Dell are all tied with one another at 22% targets per route run. In week 3, Woods was featured on 77% of the snaps, Collins 66%, and Dell 61%. On the season, Collins has 15 catches, 23 targets, 260 receiving yards, 1 TD, a 13.22 Average Depth Of Target, 304 air yards, 7x 20+ yd catches, and 104 yds after the catch. Woods has 15 catches, 25 tgts, 165 yds, 0 TDs, 10.08 ADOT, 252 air yds, 1x 20+ yd cath, and 41 YAC. Dell has 15 catches, 21 tgts, 251 yds, 2 TDs, 12.14 ADOT, 255 air yds, 3x 20+ yd catches, 2x 40+ yd catches, and 75 YAC.     

Broncos vs. Dolphins - The Miami Special Forces are the highest-trained and most deadly unit our agency has encountered in some time. They are led by QB Tua Tagovailoa, who after enduring the harshest neurological conditioning, has returned to conduct a hostile takeover with his 1024 passing yds (2nd), 10.1 Yds/Att (1st*), 71.3% completion percentage (6th*), 8 TD throws (2nd), 121.9 QB Rating (1st*), 52.5% 1st Down % (1st*), and 7.7% Big Time Throw Rate (1st)(*Minimum 3 throwing attempts). There is no training or precedent that can help defenders prepare for the speed of these Miami operators; Devon Achane registered the fastest play so far this season at 21.93 MPH during his 67 yd rushing TD in week 3. Achane needed only 1 game to become the 10th leading rusher in the league with 208 yards.
Courtland Sutton was one of the few Denver players who survived this encounter. He led his team with 8 catches on 11 targets for 91 yds and the lone Broncos TD on a 95% snap share. Sutton’s production could have been far greater if it wasn’t for his own teammate sabotaging his would-be 2nd TD and a 3rd TD going right through Courtland’s hands later in the game.

Chargers vs. Vikings - Justin Jefferson has 27 receptions on 38 targets for 458 yds through 3 weeks of NFL action (the only better stretch of his career was wks 14-16 last season: 35/47 for 479 yds). Jordan Addison continues to outproduce K.J. Osborn on a smaller snap-share with 19 targets, 13 receptions, 185 yds, 2 TDs, 13.61 ADOT, and 245 air yards so far this season (Osborn: 15 tgts, 7 rec, 101 yds, 2 TDs, 11.47 ADOT, 172 air yds).    
Keenan Allen has been in the game a long time, but father time hasn’t prevented the vet from enjoying the best season start of his career: 32/39 for 402 yards and 2 TDs. With Mike Williams lost for the season, Joshua Palmer will likely be the immediate benefactor to fill the void as Quentin Johnston takes his sweet ole time to make an impact.

Patriots vs. Jets - Breece Hall received the squeaky wheel treatment this week and was awarded 8 more carries than last week… it’s a shame he managed only 9 more rushing yards in week 3 despite his increased opportunities. The Jets' defense having to suffer Zach Wilson playing QB is far more agonizing than any poison pill our agency would sanction using on our worst enemies.
Nothing new to report for the Patriots. 

Bills vs. Commanders - James Cook is third in the league in rushing with 267 yards at 6.1 yards per carry. He has an additional 10 catches on 13 targets for 67 receiving yards. Unfortunately, Cook is cursed with the same red zone usage that plagues Jahmyr Gibbs, and thus only has 2 red zone touches and 0 TDs to show for this season.
Brian Robinson continues to dominate on the ground - 70 yards on 10 carries in this matchup. He is currently 7th in the league in rushing yards with 216. With a top-10 defense and a head coach on the hot seat, Sam Howell can ill afford to squander his opportunity with performances like he had in week 3 against the Bills (19/29, 170 yds, 0 TDs, 4 INTs, 41.5 QB Rating) before the echoes of Jacoby Brissett’s name become deafening in Washington.

Panthers vs. Seahawks - There were some who doubted the validity of Andy Dalton outproducing Bryce Young, but this is why we are considered an Intelligence Agency. In his first game this season, Dalton was 34/58 for 361 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, and an 88.4 QB rating. Bryce Young through 2 games is 42/71 for 299 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs, and a 66.6 QB rating (2nd worst, only ahead of Zach Wilson). The “Red Rifle” is an expert in toppling QB regimes and has operations conducted in Cincinnati, Dallas, Chicago, New Orleans, and now Carolina. The Panthers will not rush Bryce back from injury if Andy continues to inject life into this deceased offense.
Zach Charbonnet had the highest snap share of his young career in week 3 with 43% (Kenneth Walker 51%). Zach took advantage of his increased opportunity and rushed for 46 yards on 9 carries while Walker rushed for 97 yds on 18 carries. Zach will have to become more effective with his limited touches since his volume is unlikely to increase given how talented the receivers and lead-back are in Seattle.

Cowboys vs. Cardinals - Tony Pollard leads the league in rush attempts with 62 carries for 264 yds (4.3 ypc), and has an additional 12 catches (14 tgts) for 48 yards receiving through 3 weeks. Pollard out-snapped every other Dallas playmaker and saw the field on 86% of the plays in week 3 against Arizona. 
James Conner turned in another solid performance with 98 yds rushing on 18 carries and 1 TD (18 yds receiving on 2 catches) on 64% of the snap share. How Joshua Dobbs was able to dismantle the Cowboy's Defense far exceeds most other agencies' technological capabilities and will otherwise remain classified to any agent without the highest security clearance in our agency.

Waiver Targets

In terms of FAAB bidding, it’s best to review your league’s previous waiver behavior to best navigate the wire.

• Andy Dalton - 5% rostership, spend up to 8-10% FAAB (Top 10 week in debut and has a juicy matchup against Minnesota in week 4)

• Joshua Dobbs - 6% rostership, 8-10% FAAB (let’s see if Dobbs can topple 2x top 3 defenses in a row with SF up next)

• Aidan O’Connell - 1% rostership, 0% FAAB (the Puka of QBs, he could very well start if Jimmy G is unable to find his way out of the concussion maze) 

• Rico Dowdle - 5% rostership, 0% FAAB (stash on rosters with deep benches)

• Marvin Mims - 27% rostership, 10-12% FAAB (production too good to ignore despite limited snaps, better on Best Ball rosters)

• Joshua Palmer - 5% rostership, 5-7% FAAB (do not get too carried away - Palmer has been in this position many times before and done nothing with it)

• Josh Downs - 12% rostership, 3-5% FAAB (pushing for #2 WR role in Indi)

• DJ Chark - 5% rostership, 2-4% FAAB (led Panthers WRs in snaps, 11 tgts in wk 3)

• Donald Parham - 2% rostership, 0% FAAB (better on Best Ball rosters)

Trade Assets

At this stage of the season, we recommend trading up to a max of 2x 3rd-round picks or a 2nd-round pick that is two years away.

• Tutu Atwell - 2x 3rd rd picks, a 3rd + a player, or a 2025 2nd (#14 WR in total PPR fantasy points) 

• Courtland Sutton - 2x 3rd rd picks, a 3rd + a player, or a 2025 2nd (#22 WR in total PPR fantasy points)

Week 2 Dossier

FUBAR

bRIEFING

Being comfortable with being uncomfortable is one of the major traits we ingrain in all of our agents. The injury report is a cruel reminder of how brutal this game is and highlights the importance of stockpiling draft picks and solid depth pieces to endure the 17-week season. Gather yourselves and prepare for week 3.

Field Surveillance

There are several reports coming in from our field agents regarding week 2 action. Please review the following intel carefully:

Bounce-Back QB Play - There were several reports that many of the QBs-of-interest had broken off contact & went missing during their week 1 operation. It did not take long for these players to resurface for their week 2 matchups - 8 of the top 12 QBs this week were QB 16 or worse last week. A number of factors could be at work in burying these players’ week 1 performance, but what is clear is the importance of remaining steadfast - QBs have the highest top 12 & 24 repeat rate amongst all positions since 2017 (60% Repeat Top 12, 69.17% Repeat Top 24). Knowing that these are high-value assets and the dire consequences that would befall any manager who suffers an injury at the position, it is essential to have the most vital depth in your league at QB. Unless another manager is willing to exceed the asking price for one of your QBs, it is advised to keep these players secure on your rosters until later on in the season.

Experienced WRs - This is a situation worth monitoring, but early reports suggest that several older veteran WRs may be vying to return to top 12 status for 2023 - namely Mike Evans & Keenan Allen. It would appear that opposing defenses underestimated the potency of these players, and these savvy WRs have taken advantage of their opportunities. However, at this time we would urge you to approach these assets with high discretion.  It is likely that NFL defenses will adapt and devote a more concerted effort to stopping these players in future matchups. Given the age of these players, their trade values are unlikely to climb too high during the fantasy season. The risk of injury is another factor to weigh carefully with these WRs. It is recommended to wait until the mid-point of the season or later to trade for either WR. 

Usage Activity

A player’s usage can have massive implications for how we attack the season. Here are some points of interest worth monitoring:

Vikings vs. Eagles - Kirk Cousins through 2 games has 708 yards passing, 6 TDs, & 1 int. Despite how encouraging this is for fantasy managers, we do not see this pace being maintained. The mounting injuries to the offensive line, the completely ineffective running game, and the growing frustration swirling around the 0-2 team could have detrimental consequences for Kirk and this offense over the course of this season. 
D’Andre Swift’s performance of 28 carries (2nd best of career) for 175 yards rushing (best of career) attests to the reliability of our counterintelligence capabilities and confirms reports that last week’s game was nothing more than disinformation. With that said, the Philadelphia Eagles are still searching for their identity on offense, but it should remain highly effective in 2023.     

Packers vs. Falcons - Desmond Ridder’s 19 of 32 for 237 yards passing with 1 TD & 1 Int, along with 39 yards & 1 TD on the ground, was the QB's best stat line of his career (6 games). Meanwhile, Drake London’s 6 catches for 67 yards & 1 TD was the 2nd/3rd best fantasy performance of the sophomore’s career depending on your league’s scoring format. The passing standard for the Atlanta Falcons is extremely low. 
There continue to be promising opportunities for rookie TE Luke Musgrave, who received an 88% snap share - the highest among rookie TEs. Would like to see more opportunities for his teammate Jayden Reed, who turned 8 targets into 4 catches for 37 yards and 2 TDs on a 56% snap share. Don’t look now but Jordan Love’s fantasy points have him in the top 5 through 2 weeks.

Raiders vs. Bills - James Cook accomplished the best game of his career with 123 yards rushing (17 attempts) and 36 yards receiving (4 catches on 4 targets) on a 59% snap share. However, it was Latavius Murray & Damien Harris who each enjoyed TDs on their 23% & 18% snap shares respectively. Josh Allen has averaged 109 rushing attempts for 617 yards over the first five years of his career - he currently has 43 yards on 9 attempts through 2 weeks. 
Josh Jacobs had -2 rushing yards on 9 attempts and Michael Mayer had 1 target for 1 catch for 2 yards on a 40% snap share. Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers are the only pieces worth owning until Aidan O’Connell takes over. 

Ravens vs. Bengals - Despite what the box score may indicate, the Ravens never wavered in their approach for this game. Gus Edwards remains the RB to own from this backfield, as recommended by our sources last week. However, it should be noted that despite a better performance from Gus (10 touches on 43% of snaps), Justice saw a higher snap share (57%) & number of touches (14 total). The Ravens are unlikely to make a splash at bringing in a flashy RB given their history, but their passing attack is dynamic given what each of their weapons brings to the table. It would be surprising if Baltimore traded for Cam Akers given their most recent experience with JK Dobbin’s injuries. 
Cincinnati is falling far short of being a strong Super Bowl contender with an air-raid offense - the only team that has passed for fewer yards is the Panthers. Put in another manner, the Bengals have passed for fewer yards than the Jets, Falcons, and Cardinals. If you are hearing this intel, then Operation “Tigers Can’t Change Their Stripes” is proving to be far more effective than we possibly imagined. Given the 2-week sample size, any take can be spun to great effect, including the fact that perceived powerhouse teams Dallas and Philadelphia (who no one is panicking about) have passed for only 94 & 59 more yards than Cincinnati respectively. Luckily, you all are highly-trained agents who won’t be compromised by such propaganda but instead, take full advantage of the situation to send out offers to acquire the elusive Joe Burrow/Ja’Marr Chase stack.     

Colts vs. Texans - Zack Moss saw 98% of the snaps - no other RB took a single snap for the Colts. He turned in a solid performance with 88 yards on the ground and 19 through the air, plus a TD. 
C.J. Stroud looked sharp with 384 yards passing on 30/47 attempts with 2 TDs. Nico Collins also erupted with 146 yards and a TD on 7 catches but only saw 62% of the snaps. This duo could prove to be one of the best value stacks for 2023. Dameon Pierce didn’t enjoy the same field day as his teammates - he saw only 45% of the snaps where he rushed for 31 yards on 15 attempts.

Chargers vs. Titans - Derrick Henry’s 25 rushing attempts eclipsed Ryan Tannehill’s 24 passes, which was tied with Jimmy Garoppolo as the lowest number of attempts for week 2. Both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams had 8 catches on 10 or more targets each. This was NOT an ideal matchup for waiver wire pickup Joshua Kelley, who only managed 39 scoreless yards against one of the toughest run defenses in the league. We may need to wait a while before we see much from rookie Quentin Johnston unfortunately.

Giants vs. Cardinals - Week 2 of the 2023 NFL Season was one hell of a week for a lot of players because Joshua Dobbs also achieved the best performance of his career with 228 yards passing, 41 yards running, and 2 total TDs. James Connor’s 23 rushing attempts were tied for the second most carries he’s handled since week 8 of 2019 (the only higher number of carries in that span was the 25 carries he saw in week 12 of 2022). 
Darren Waller led all Giants receivers in targets (8), snaps (90%) and was second in yards (76) behind Jalin Hyatt (89). Darius Slayton and Isaiah Hodgins were not far behind in snaps at 82% & 75% respectively. 

49ers vs. Rams - Is Kyren Williams the starting RB for the Rams? Apparently. Has Kyren looked like a better RB than Cam Akers through the first two weeks? I guess. Is Kyren a good RB who I want to acquire in Dynasty? Ask us again in a few weeks, but probably not. Running another RB into the trade block, commanding 95% of the snaps, and having heavy involvement in the passing game (6 catches on 10 targets for 48 yards) demands a close eye over the next few weeks. Matthew Stafford’s 93 passing attempts are the second most in the NFL through week 2, ahead of C.J. Stroud’s 91 attempts and behind Mac Jones’ 96 attempts. Last but not least, there is a rising power in the west that is perhaps the biggest point of interest so far in our young season - Puka Nacua. His targets (35), receptions (25), target share (39%), and yards after the catch (114 yards) all lead the league amongst WRs. He has the 5th highest PFF Grade at his position (85.0). All aboard the Puka train before it leaves the station.
Brandon Aiyuk, the highest-graded WR according to PFF (91.4), suffered a shoulder injury in this contest and will need to be monitored. 

Jets vs. Cowboys - Tony Pollard saw 32 total touches in this contest (25 carries, 7 catches) on 64% of the snaps. Breece Hall unfortunately only saw 4 touches on 34% of the snaps. Nothing else of consequence to report. 

Commanders vs. Broncos - It may not look pretty in Denver, but Russell Wilson is putting up fantasy points - 18/32 for 308 passing yards, 3 TDs, & 1 Int. He also led his team in rushing, with 56 yards on the ground. Marvin Mims turned 2 catches into 113 yards but is only seeing 24% of the snaps. Lauded off-season acquisition Samaje Perine had only 4 total touches in this game (1 carry, 3 catches). 
Brian Robinson was the RB #1 in most formats, with 18 carries for 87 yards 2 TDs on the ground, and 2 catches for 42 yards through the air. This was accomplished on a limited 52% snap share; Antonio Gibson had a 48% snap share and managed 53 yards on 5 touches. Jahan Dotson is not off to a great start, with only 8 catches on 12 targets for 62 yards through 2 weeks.

Dolphins vs. Patriots - We can’t explain why the Patriots are leading the league in pass attempts, but they are. New England is far from being awful on the ground - 3.5 yards per carry is good enough for 22nd in the NFL. This has led to a curious assortment of pass-catching weapons, with Devante Parker (100% snaps) and Hunter Henry (92% snaps) leading the Patriots with 6 catches each in week 2. Kendrick Bourne, Mike Gesicki, and Juju Smith-Schuster all saw their fair share of snaps and opportunities as well. 
Our agency is just as shocked as the rest of the watching world that the Dolphins only had 249 yards through the air - we thought for sure that Tua and Tyreek would combine for at least 500 yards every game for the rest of the season after seeing their performance last week. Raheem Mostert had the fastest play of week 2 - 21.62 MPH on his 43-yard rushing TD.

Waiver Targets

In terms of FAAB bidding, it’s best to review your league’s previous waiver behavior to best navigate the wire. 

• Jerome Ford - 17% rostership, spend up to 16-18% FAAB (now the lead back in Cleveland, which leads the NFL in rushing attempts)

• Tony Jones - 0% rostership, 0-1% FAAB (now the lead back in NO with no other healthy rushers on the roster outside of Taysom Hill)

• Eric Gray/Matt Brieda - 3% rostership, 0-1% FAAB (Gray is the better RB but Brieda will likely get the lion’s share of touches in week 3 while Saquon Barkley is hurt)

• Latavius Murray - 3% rostership, 0% FAAB (make a waiver claim in your large format Best Ball leagues). 

• Josh Reynolds - 22% rostership, 3-5% FAAB (back-to-back solid performances & should continue to see high snaps all season)

• Robert Woods - 16% rostership, 2-4% FAAB (we prefer Woods over Dell, but you likely won’t have to spend as much money on him given the extreme ageism in fantasy)

• Tank Dell - 21% rostership, 3-5% FAAB (7/10 for 72 yards & 1 TD on 79% snaps - should continue to see increased opportunities while Noah Brown is hurt).

• Jayden Reed - 20% rostership, 6-8% FAAB (he’s the best Packer WR while Christian Watson is hurt)

• Devante Parker - 7% rostership, 0-1% FAAB (decent bet to be the most productive Patriot WR in a high-pass offense)

• Zach Ertz - 16.7% rostership, 0% FAAB (leads all TEs with 18 targets)

• Cade Otton - 5% rostership, 0% FAAB (97% of snaps each of the last two weeks)

• Kyle Granson - 1.3% rostership, 0% FAAB (leads a TE room that is being hyper-targeted by Anthony Richardson)

Trade Assets

Unless you’re trading up to 2x 2nd-round picks for Puka Nacua, we strongly advise that you maintain your cover and lay low with your draft capital; it may be your only ticket out if your team becomes compromised with injuries. 

Week 1 Dossier

Pressed Back Into Action

Reporting for Duty

Welcome back. We thought you were dead. I trust that your time away was used wisely and wasn’t wasted away on a beach drinking endless Mai Tai’s. The season has officially begun, so we don’t have much time. You will immediately be reinstated into Active Service. Report to Field Surveillance to begin your briefing.

Field Surveillance

Beginning with what I observed from the opening weekend of NFL games, there are a few key takeaways that could impact the success of our fantasy seasons:

Defense & Running Game - The common theme in every outstanding performance or upset this week was dominant defenses that created turnovers. Through Week 1, the most intimidating defenses belong to the Dallas Cowboys (held NYG to 63 pass yds), the Cleveland Browns (held CIN to 142 total yds), the Los Angeles Rams (the biggest upset of Wk 1), and the San Francisco 49ers. Their Herculean performances led to the biggest blowouts we saw from this past weekend. These defenses are going to supply a rich amount of opportunities for their own offenses to put up ridiculous numbers in 2023.

Despite prevailing reports that running backs were either killed or MIA over the last few seasons, we can now confirm that many of these established defenses have allied themselves with prominent running games that can control the flow of contests. The Browns, Rams, Chargers, Jaguars, Lions, and 49ers all made their presence known through their ground assault (34+ attempts), which in turn led to positive outcomes for their passing attacks as well. These are only the preliminary findings through the limited sample we have, but it is generally recommended to acquire assets on teams that have command in the trenches.

Usage Activity

The usage of a player is one of the most critical pieces of intel that we can use to our advantage. Here are some points of interest worth considering:

Rams vs. Seahawks - Kyren Williams out-snapped Cam Akers 53 to 28 (65% vs. 35% snap share), but Cam still out-touched Kyren with 22 and 15 carries respectively. Those 22 carries for Akers amounted to only 23 yards - arguably the worst rushing performance of the entire weekend. Puka Nacua had arguably the best performance of any rookie in week 1, tying Tyreek Hill with a league-high 15 targets on a 78% snap share. Kenneth Walker, DK Metcalf, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba were all tied in the team-high targets at five each, with Tyler Lockett trailing closely behind with four targets.

Eagles vs. Patriots - Kendrick Bourne led all New England playmakers in snap percentage (91%) and targets (11), while Rhamondre Stevenson led the team in total touches with 18 (12 carries, 6 catches on 73% snap share). Ezekiel Elliot tied Roschon Johnson with a league-high 7 targets in the passing game. Kenneth Gainwell out-snapped D’Andre Swift 62% to 29% and out-touched him 18 to 2. 

Dolphins vs. Chargers - The Los Angeles ground attack was equally distributed between Austin Ekeler and Joshua Kelley at 51% & 48% snap share respectively and 16 carries each. The Cheetah is still the fastest animal in the NFL Kingdom, registering the two fastest plays from week 1 with a 21.66 mph 47 yd play and a 21.52 mph 35 yd touchdown.

Raiders vs. Broncos - Jakobi Meyers played 80% of the offensive snaps as the #2 WR behind Adams, well ahead of Hunter Renfrow’s 22% snap share. There is nothing to report on the Denver front. 

Packers vs. Bears - Roschon Johnson did not receive a touch until the 3rd quarter but led the three-headed committee with a 39% snap-share compared to Khalil’s 36% and D’Onta Foreman’s 28% share. Despite being 28 years old, Aaron Jones is still one of the best RBs in the league, posting the best fantasy performance at the position for week 1 and registering the third-fastest play behind only Tyreek Hill with his 21.48 mph 35 yd TD reception.

Cardinals vs. Commanders - Michael Wilson led all rookie WRs with a 90% snap share but registered only 2 catches on 4 targets. Brian Robinson continues to dominate Antonio Gibson in terms of touches (20 vs. 4) and snaps (61% vs. 35%).

I49ers vs. Steelers - Pittsburgh only attempted 9 total rushes with their RBs - it’s safe to say that being down 17-0 shortly after the beginning of the second quarter and going up against a nasty 49ers D-line forced the Steelers to abandon the run early. Brock Purdy posted the best QBR of week 1 at 91.3 (only slightly ahead of Matthew Stafford & Tua Tagovailoa).

Titans vs. Saints - Derrick Henry was out-snapped by backup Tyjae Spears 48% to 54% respectively, but in a similar fashion as Akers and Kyren with the Rams, Henry out-touched Spears 17 to 3. Ryan Tannehill recorded the worst passer rating of any QB in week 1 and should be deemed a threat to any playmaker production, but must be preserved as Tennessee’s Puppet QB over the far more disastrous backup options.

Jaguars vs. Colts - Travis Etienne was allotted the lion’s share of the running game with an 80% snap share and 23 touches (18 carries, 5 catches). Meanwhile, Deon Jackson gave Cam Akers a run for his money with one of the most abysmal performances in week 1 (14 rushing yds on 13 carries on a 71% snap share).

Bengals vs. Browns - In the battle for Ohio, Nick Chubb only played on 36 snaps (49% snap-share) but had 22 touches on the limited plays he saw, and led the Browns with 4 receptions. 

Texans vs. Ravens - Much will be made of Rashod Bateman’s limited usage (only 39% snap-share), but considering his injury history and recent foot procedure, it makes sense for the team to be cautious with their talented first-round pick. Their newest first-round pick selection is also very talented and commanded 9 receptions on 10 targets on an 84% snap share. Dameon Pierce did not enjoy the same type of performance, mustering 47 total yards on only 13 touches and a 45% snap-share.

Panthers vs. Falcons - The running game was the central attraction for both teams. Bijan Robinson led the Falcons RBs in snap-share at 63% (Tyler Allgeier had a 56% snap-share) but it was Allgeier who led the ground game in touches with 18 total (Bijan 16 total touches). There is a high level of suspicion that records of Desmond Ridder’s passing were Window-Dressed in order to deceive intelligence agencies that he had the second-highest Passer Rating from week 1 at 111.8 (behind Jordan Love’s 123.2 rating).

WoRP Arsenal

Before WoRP Technologies can be effectively utilized, 3-4 weeks of intel will be required to ensure greater mission success.

Waiver Targets

In terms of FAAB bidding, it’s best to review your league’s previous waiver behavior to best navigate the wire. 

• Joshua Kelley - 6.8% rostership, spend up to 10% FAAB (Ekeler’s status for week 2 unclear)

• Gus Edwards - 20.1% rostership, 5-6% FAAB (far more effective rusher over Justice Hill)

• Chuba Hubbard - 20.7% rostership, 5% FAAB

• Kyren Williams - 6.2% rostership, 4-5% FAAB

• Puka Nacua - 10.1% rostership, 10-15% FAAB

• Kendrick Bourne - 2% rostership, 3-4% FAAB (better for Best Ball)

• Rashid Shaheed - 12.6% rostership, 2-3% FAAB (only 54% snap share wk 1, better for BB)

• Josh Reynolds - 4.2% rostership, 0% FAAB (better for BB)

• Robert Woods - 9.1% rostership, 0% FAAB (better for BB)

• Allen Robinson - 4.6% rostership, 0% FAAB (led the team in receiving yds & tied for team-high snaps amongst PIT WRs at 89%, better for BB)

• Tutu Atwell - 6.5% rostership, 0% FAAB (hesitant to buy in just yet)

• River Cracraft - 0% rostership, 0% FAAB (better for BB)

• Hunter Henry - 7.3% rostership, 5% FAAB (don’t go on a wild TE chase)

• Hayden Hurst - 12.1% rostership, 4% FAAB

Double Agents

Do not trust the following assets:

• Kenneth Gainwell - 35.1% rostership - don’t buy the Swift propaganda

• Justice Hill - 0% rostership - the 2 TD provocateur will become a non-factor once Baltimore signs a new RB

Assets to Acquire

Given how early it is into our campaign, I advise caution and do not recommend trading away any 1st or 2nd round picks at this time:

• Jakobi Meyers - 2x 3rd rd picks or a 3rd + a player. I would wait another week or two before trading away a 2025 2nd. 

• Tyler Allgeier - 2x 3rd rd picks or a 3rd + a player. I would wait another week or two before trading away a 25 2nd.

• Joshua Kelley - 2x 4ths or a 3rd rd pick (start with a 25 3rd rd pick)

Positional Volatility

Expect the Unexpected

Everything is Ruined

From the moment the Chiefs were crowned Super Bowl LVII champions, 206 days, 22 hours, and 6 tortuous minutes will have passed that have deprived us of meaningful football. But there are no off-seasons for degenerate fantasy players. The blue-light glasses may have spared your eyes from the hours of late-night film studies and data entry, but your ears will never recover from the shameful amount of podcasts and YouTube you fed your big brain. There is no bridge too far, nor is there any sacrifice too big if it means our hard work will help us grasp glory this upcoming season. With only three days left until kick off of the new league year, we can see the light at the end of the tunnel, and we can finally rest easy…or so we thought. It turns out the soothing light at the end of your tunnel was just a freight train comin' your way. 

Analytics and projections are pivotal, but having backup plans and contingencies can be equally paramount. What will you do if your starting QB gets hurt? What will happen to your playoff hopes if your stud RB holds out? Will you be able to overcome the devastation you wrought by drafting a rookie TE in the 9th round? The first step in being prepared for these scenarios is to ground both our research and strategy in historical data. The past cannot predict the future any more than data or statistics can. But what history can do is train us for the unforeseen. History is not kind to those who are oblivious to it. 

This article is largely inspired by Peter Howard (@pahowdy) 's video on June 3rd, 2023 entitled “Bet on the Olds?” In the video, Peter breaks down the process he uses to help inform his projections for the upcoming season. He uses three major categories to help analyze the year-by-year trends he finds for each position. The first category is classified as a ‘Repeat’ player, which is defined as a “player who was in the ‘top X’ group last season and the season before.” The second category is labeled a ‘Return’ player, which is specified as a “player that was in the ‘top X’ group last season and not the season before, but rather another season earlier in their career.” The last category is the ‘Breakout’ player, which is any “player that was in the ‘top X’ group for the first time last season.” Peter defines the “top X” group as the top 12, 24, and 36 for each position. The final element to note is that Peter’s results were based on data from 2022 to 2008. It would be beneficial to check out his results in the video linked at the end of this article. I strongly encourage subscribing to Peter’s content as well; he is one of the top analysts in the entire space. 

Peter’s video piqued my curiosity given how large of a sample he used for his data. I was interested in knowing how the league has changed over the last six seasons compared to the NFL landscape over the past 15 seasons. This idea was motivated by the notion that the game has been defined by high-level passing over the past five years by an elite corp of QBs and WRs that are all very relevant in today’s fantasy landscape. I was equally intent on discovering the impact these positional trends had on RBs, as well as settling once and for all that the TE position has never mattered in fantasy football.

Using FantasyPros’ 2017-2022 season-long total fantasy points (weeks 1-17, PPR) for each position, I grouped each player using Peter’s ‘Repeat,’ ‘Return,’ and ‘Breakout’ categories of players as defined earlier. A key difference between my data and Peter’s is that he divided each position by the top 12, 24, and 36. I on the other hand divided the QB and RB positions by the top 12 & 24, the WR position by the top 12, 24, & 36, and the TE position by the top 6 & 12. My logic for these ‘top X’ groups was to better mirror the most common starting lineup in SF leagues. Furthermore, I was interested in knowing the percentage of rookies that composed the top Breakout players, so I created an additional group for this purpose.  Finally, I put in parenthesis the approximate number of players that qualified for that ‘top X’ for those who become cross-eyed using percentages. Here is what I found. 

I Did Not See That Coming!

Like a hardened detective who has seen enough crime scenes to know all too well how it will all turn out, I had my hunch that the percentage of Repeat Top 12 QBs would be high, but I did not foresee it being 15% higher than Peter’s results!

Here are a few key takeaways I gathered from the QB position:

• The highest Repeat amongst all positions is QB at 60% (roughly 7 players) of the top 12 and 69.17% of the top 24.

• If it wasn’t obvious already, Patrick Mahomes II is in a class of his own. Mahomes is the only QB in this sample to remain in the Top 12 every year since he became the Chief’s starting QB. Only his teammate, Kelce, can boast of a similar feat.

• Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, and Josh Allen can be drafted with confidence - they have consistently been in the top 12 throughout most of their careers.

• Kirk Cousins is indeed the most underrated QB in the league - Top 12 in 4 out of 6 years, top 24 all 6 years.

• The majority of Return players were decent veteran backups with solid playing experience in very bad QB rooms (Ryan Fitzpatrick & Andy Dalton types).

• The theme for Breakout QBs was young players (usually in their rookie or 2nd year) who were well-known for their accuracy or elite rushing ability. 

When looking at RB, I was pleased to find that the position was comprised of a healthy mixture of stalwart vets and breakout talent.

Here are a few of the conclusions I took away from the RB position:

• A little less than half of the RBs in the top 12 and a little more than half in the top 24 are Repeat players - we have enjoyed a high level of certainty in knowing who the top RBs are over the last 4 seasons.

• The majority of Return players were arguably top 3 RBs at a given point who unfortunately got hurt & battled back to elite status. Never count out a RB. 

• In terms of Breakout RBs, these players typically received the vast majority of touches or saw very high usage in the passing game/goal line. 

• Rookie RBs boast the highest percentage of Breakouts amongst all positions at 12.5%, with nearly all of them being the highest-drafted RBs in their class (James Robinson & Phillip Lindsay are the only outliers in this sample).

The WRs were perhaps the most surprising of all the different positions in terms of the level of carry-over from year to year. 

The following is what I took away from the WR position:

• Of all the skill positions, WR is the most consistent with a 63.32% average of top 36 Repeat players over the last 6 seasons.

• Perhaps the biggest takeaway from the Repeat WRs is how consistently we see the elite vets in the top 36 - The seasoned WR may very well be the most dismissed position in all of fantasy with how obsessed the community is with acquiring youthful talent.

• Outside of injury, it is difficult to discern many other factors that play into a WR Returning to the top 36. 

• Similar to QB, the majority of Breakout WRs were in their 1st or 2nd season.

• WR was close behind RB in the percentage of Breakout Rookies at 9.44% average amongst the top 36. 

Investigating the TE scene is the part of the job that no one tells you about when you first start off as a wide-eyed analyst - luckily your partner Johnnie Walker always has your back.

Here are some of the painful lessons that the TE position has taught us:

• Do not be fooled by these high percentages of Repeat players in the TE position - it’s Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, and that’s pretty much it.

• There’s no rhyme or reason in terms of the Return TEs - some of them return from injury but many of them just end up on a milk carton for a few seasons & then are rediscovered in a faraway city years later. 

• There’s even less reason for discovering the links amongst breakout TEs -  a few of them are 2nd or 3rd-year players, and some of them are much longer in the tooth before they ever get to experience the limelight. 

• The absolute worst bet you can make in all of fantasy is on a rookie TE. You have a 1.67% chance of a rookie TE being top 12, which has only happened once since 2017 & that was with Pitts.

• Just save yourself the hassle & fade the position after Kelce & Andrews.

The ‘Not For Long’ League

The fantasy streets are littered with broken projections and shattered championship dreams. You can’t always plan or defend against it. Exercising caution, recalling what experience has taught you, and having some sort of way out is your best bet. It was my intention to unveil my rankings with these categories built into them, but three weeks on dogwatch has me forgetting what my wife’s face looks like, so we’ll save that for a future article. Catch ya later on down the trail.

Howard, Peter. “Bet on the Olds?” Jun 3, 2023
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xqubB_P4GnA&t=3s

This article has been perfected by Dr. B Harris

Underdog Drafts

In the Mouth of Madness

Jon Snowing It

The Allied evacuation of Dunkirk during WWII, King Leonidas’ Spartans at the Hot Gates, and the army of Rohan at the Battle of Helm’s Deep… these moments in history are a lazy Sunday afternoon compared to the odds faced in Underdog tournaments. In a Best Ball Mania IV contest that features 677,376 entrants on the battlefield, the only chance for survival is the most rigorous commitment to a tempered strategy. Do not be tempted to invest tens of thousands of dollars into building a data center outfitted with complex algorithms that draft for you - Mad Max didn’t use AI when he entered the Thunderdome and neither should you. Instead, we will focus on wielding a process trained by historical data, risk assessment, and the most powerful tools in the space. This path does not guarantee all of your teams will survive the first onslaught, nor your most promising 18th-round pick will save you in the eleventh hour. But rest assured there’s no greater confidence than harnessing a strategy that can adapt to any circumstance that was built with your own sweat and efforts. Let’s get into it. 

WoRP Your Mind

We will begin by freeing your mind of everything you thought you knew about Underdog drafts. ADP would have us believe that WR and the elite QB have overtaken RB as the focal position of the format. At the writing of this article, 19 of the top 36 players are WRs, along with 4 QBs and 2 TEs, which leaves 11 RBs remaining in the top three rounds of ADP. But much like parents, ADP is something we ought to respect but not always something we need to follow. And in a tournament that rewards the most unique combination of players, it will actually be to your benefit to stand out from the crowd. But in order to separate ourselves to our benefit, we have to determine what the most valuable positions and players are given the scoring and roster format on Underdog. The single best method available to us in the space for determining production value is WoRP. 

I had the privilege of interviewing one of the foremost authorities in the field of WoRP, Dr. Koopa, Director of the Mind Flayer Project at the Labs of South Harmon Institute of Technology. In his research, he explains:

“WoRP, or Wins over Replacement Player, is a singular metric you can use to compare the value of players in your fantasy league, even across positions. Rather than using PPG, which can be biased towards one position (QBs) or against another (TEs), WoRP normalizes against the fantasy points of the replacement player, aka the best player at that position who didn't make your lineup. This allows you to compare one player to another, even if they score drastically different numbers of points. Finally, the values between positions can change from league to league, and the tool adjusts to your specific league settings to show you where an edge exists that wouldn't exist in a more "standard" league. With these calculations, we thought we might start a chain reaction that would destroy the entire fantasy world...I believe we did.”

Koopa may or may not have said that last part, but what is undeniable and most compelling is that WoRP “allows you to compare one player to another, even if they score drastically different numbers of points.” So what does 2022’s WoRP reveal to us about Underdog?

I hope everyone has been drafting RBs because they are far from being dead. Underdog is a half-point per reception scored format, which gives RBs more than a fighter’s chance to be on equal footing with their WRs counterparts. Three of the top four players last year were RBs, but Christian McCaffrey is the only RB who is being drafted consistently in the top six of Underdog drafts. Workhorse and dual-threat RBs are going to win contestants a lot of money this year.

When sorted by WoRP per game, there are only 13 WRs that make it into the top 36 (compared to the 19 WRs found in ADP), only 1 TE (2 TEs in ADP), and a whopping 18 RBs (only 11 RBs in top 36 of ADP)! It would appear that QB is the only position that is being drafted appropriately on Underdog and yet they are still being taken at value compared to their WoRP. 
When armed with this knowledge, participants can effectively navigate Underdog drafts by avoiding the landmines who are being drafted too far ahead of what they can truly offer and letting the real difference-makers fall to them (often past their true ADP in terms of WoRP). 

The Last of Us Strategy

Having played Underdog since their first year, there are a number of key lessons I have learned over the last three seasons. The following section comprises the very pillars of my strategy. To your benefit, I will hold these core principles of mine up to the magnificent light of WoRP, as well as in the brilliance of Hayden Wink’s research at Underdog Network. We will begin with Roster Construction, which is very similar to Taco Bell in that the possible combinations are endless despite there only being 4 ingredients.

2-3 QBs (DON'T get 2x top 5) - Having 2 top 5 QBs sounds good in theory, but we have to remember that this is a 1QB format, not SuperFlex. Why draft a 2nd elite QB at an elite cost (top 3-4 rds) that is going to score nearly the same amount of points as your other elite QB? Hayden Winks would further add “It looks like when we hit on a QB, it's best to wait until this Round 9-12 range.1” In terms of WoRP, the top 4 QBs were all nearly identical in the value they offered. I am betting on the elite 4 becoming an elite 7-8, with the likes of Lamar Jackson, Trevor Lawrence, Justin Herbert, or Justin Fields rounding out the steep slope we saw from last year.

Drafting 3 QBs is a strategy I am willing to employ in about a third of my drafts for two simple reasons: 1) I can capture 1-2 more high-WoRP skill players with the picks I would have otherwise spent on elite QBs if I’m aiming for 2nd/3rd tier QBs. 2) There are a number of QBs that have top-10 potential that are being drafted far later. But despite these assumptions, it’s hard to ignore how much better the elite QBs were compared to the rest of the field. The ideal QB strategy is perhaps drafting a top 8 QB and a 2nd QB that offers elite potential at a later ADP. Hayden Winks’ research affirms the 2 QB over the 3 QB strategy when he writes “2022: Once again, QB3 teams closed the gap on QB2 teams in Round 12, but never eclipsed them at any point on average.2”

3 TEs - An epidemic more alarming than the effects of Brainworm that continues to pervade the entire fantasy football space is the mishandling of the Tight End position. But thanks to recent breakthroughs in research, we have discovered a vaccine to cure our rosters of Persistent Tight End Arousal Syndrome (PTEAS). The best way to treat tight ends in Underdogs drafts is to draft three of them and punt the position entirely unless you have the fortune of drafting Travis Kelce. He is the one and only TE who consistently challenges the top RBs and WRs in fantasy that is worth his 1st round value.  

After Kelce the position plummets to an abysmal plane of existence that never once comes close to WRs or RBs. Given how flat the position is after TE 6 (Schultz = 0.032 WoRP/G) until TE 31 (Otton = 0.011 WoRP/G), there isn’t any upside to drafting a top 10-12 ADP tight end in the first 11 rounds of your Underdog drafts. It’s essential to draft 3 TEs given the absurd volatility of the position - Kelce registered a combined 20 Spike and Above Average weeks last season, while TEs 2-32 had an average 4.9 combined Spike and Above Average weeks in 2022. Woof.

5-6 RBs (5 RBs if you get 3 QBs) & 7-8 WRs (7 WRs if get 6 RBs or 3 QBs) - Knowing that 5-6 spots on your 17-player roster have already been spoken for by the QBs and TEs, this leaves 11-12 roster spots that can be devoted to the RB and WR position. There are a number of factors that play into drafting slightly more WRs than RBs, but the most significant is the starting lineups on Underdog (2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 Flex) and the edge in WoRP that WR commands after a certain point in the draft. Before every draft, I take a “snapshot” of how the WoRP/G distributes between the various positions every 6 spots in the top WoRP players.

As you can see in the above Underdog snapshot, RB and WR trade superiority throughout the top 42 of their respective positions, with perhaps a slight advantage to RB. That edge quickly gives way to the WRs after the 42nd RB and is never regained. Bearing this dropoff at RB in mind, be diligent in drafting at least 3, but ideally 4, of these top 40ish RBs, and saving room for 1-2 upside dart throws for later in your drafts.
Furthermore, I would not recommend drafting more than two rookie WRs per roster given how long it typically takes for rookies to acclimate to the NFL. Lastly, I would not advocate for drafting too many Boom WRs towards the end of the draft whose game is entirely predicated on the big-play over the safe-floor veterans that are routinely available.

There Can Only Be One!

Much more can be said about what it takes to be the last one standing, but outside of what I’ve already shared from my personal findings, I would highly recommend checking out the following articles from Hayden Winks to help prepare for Underdog drafts. I’ll end it with one final piece of advice: don’t draft timid - It’s better to burn out than to fade away!

1 - Winks, Hayden. “When To Draft QBs In Best Ball (Updated).” Jun 6th, 2023. https://underdognetwork.com/football/news/when-to-draft-qbs-in-best-ball-updated

2 - Winks, Hayden. “When To Draft QBs In Best Ball (Updated).” Jun 6th, 2023. https://underdognetwork.com/football/news/when-to-draft-qbs-in-best-ball-updated

Winks, Hayden. “Strategy Data For Underdog Fantasy's Weekly Winners.” Aug 7th 2023. https://underdognetwork.com/football/best-ball-research/strategy-data-for-underdog-fantasys-weekly-winners

Winks, Hayden. “How To Draft Zero RB Properly: "Even More Radicalized Zero RB." Apr 24th, 2022. https://underdognetwork.com/football/best-ball-research/how-to-draft-zero-rb-properly-even-more-radicalized-zero-rb

Winks, Hayden. “Draft More Best Ball Teams With Only 6-8 WRs.” Jun 27th, 2022. https://underdognetwork.com/football/best-ball-research/draft-more-best-ball-teams-with-only-6-8-wrs

Winks, Hayden. “When To Draft WRs In Best Ball (Updated).” May 16th, 2023. https://underdognetwork.com/football/best-ball-research/when-to-draft-wrs-in-best-ball-updated

Winks, Hayden. “When To Draft RBs In Best Ball (Updated).” May 15th, 2023. https://underdognetwork.com/football/best-ball-research/when-to-draft-rbs-in-best-ball-updated

Winks, Hayden. “When To Draft QBs In Best Ball (Updated).” Jun 6th, 2023. https://underdognetwork.com/football/news/when-to-draft-qbs-in-best-ball-updated

This article has been perfected by Dr. B Harris

Underdog Drafts

Preparing for Chaos

Imma Gonna Win!

It’s after midnight on a warm August night when you put on your sleep cap and you’re ready to start counting sheep. But before it fades to black your peace is spoiled by a rude messenger. It’s an urgent push notification from Underdog saying “You’re on the clock!.” You have 10 hours to make your selection, but since you want to sleep-in until noon it’s now or never. Justin Fields has fallen five spots past his ADP and you already have DJ Moore rostered at WR. Easy Peasy Lemon Squeezy. You click the paper-airplane icon “Draft” with a grin thinking about what you want to buy first with the $3 million prize. It isn’t long until that same messenger returns, but this time it’s AJ Dillon who now needs to be saved. Without hesitation you smash the green icon and you close your eyes wondering how you could be so lucky. It’s not until the next morning upon opening your Underdog app and wanting to relive the previous evening’s triumphs that you realize something is off. The squad you drafted Justin Fields with already had Lamar Jackson, which wouldn’t be so bad if they didn’t have the same late bye week. Damn. You quickly click through every active draft searching for your AJ Dillon team. Your worst fears are realized when you come to find Aaron Jones on your roster smiling down at his teammate a few spots below. Double Damn. It helps to be organized when competing in a tournament with 677,376 entries for $15 million in prize money. This two-part series of articles is dedicated to the groundwork and strategy behind Underdog drafts. Much of the process covered in this series can be directly applied to redraft leagues as well.

Spread Them Sheets

Like everything else in fantasy, there is an excess of factors to be cognizant of when attacking your Underdog drafts. In order to orchestrate all of these data points into a harmonious symphony, I find spreadsheets to being the most effective method of organization. Here’s how to begin building out your spreadsheet.  

Sheet 1 - The Cornerstone: Sheet 1 is the basis for all of the other sheets in your document. It is comprised of both a ‘Rankings’ section and a ‘Notes’ section. I divide the Rankings section with Overall, Round, Player, Position, Bye, and Personal Rank (optional) columns as pictured below.

The Rankings: The basis for all my rankings (dynasty, redraft, Underdog) is rooted in ADP. Managers that operate too far ahead or behind ADP take on far too much risk in outsmarting others. With millions of dollars on the line and thousands of contestants, it’s not a stretch to say that Underdog has the sharpest season-long ADP in the entire fantasy space. Overspending and negating any possible ADP edges that are pivotal in such a small-margin contest is folly. So with that said, visit https://underdogfantasy.com/lobby , go to the ‘Rankings’ tab, and press the ‘CSV download/upload’ button to receive the latest Underdog ADP. Once you have the ADP copied over to your spreadsheet, the real fun can begin!

Color Coding: In an 18 round draft that has over 200 players its pivotal to find what you need as easily as possible. At minimum I recommend color coding the Position column (I use the same color-scheme Underdog uses) and highlighting in red any player on a week 13/14 bye. Having too many players on a bye right before the playoffs can absolutely crush you, especially if you lose any players to injury throughout the course of the season that you banked on performing during these byes.

Notes Section: If you were speculating what all the different numbers and colors represented in the Rankings section, wonder no further. My Notes section comprises four different categories. Is any of this necessary? No, but I hate sleep and love needlessly grinding any possible edge I have in winning, so all of this is purely optional. 

WoRP Performance - One of the main things I look at when organzing my rankings is how well a player performed in terms of WoRP (Wins Above Replacement Player). We will dive deeper into exactly what WoRP is, but in general WoRP shows us how many more wins a player earned you in comparison to any other player. I assign a score and color to each player depending upon their previous year’s WoRP. 

Playoff Projection - Having players with the projected best matchups during the most critical stage of the tournament is a massive advantage. There isn’t much of a science to how I assign these scores to players - I simply assign a low, middle, or high score to that player’s week depending upon if the pass/rush defense they are playing was ranked in the bottom, middle, or top third of the league. Since there can be fluctuation in how defenses perform year to year, I only use this as a tiebreaker when I am on the clock and having a hard time deciding what player to draft.

Spike and Above Average Weeks - The beauty of playing in a BestBall format is capturing the peak performances players are capable of. One of my favorite ways to gauge how dominant a player was in a best ball format is to look at the number of Spike weeks (player was top 5 in points scored at their position for that week) and Above Average weeks (top 16 QB/RB, top 24 WR, top 8 TE) a player had last year. Be judicious when it comes to your player selection - draft a healthy mixture of players that can offer peak performance and/or consistency. You can easily find this data by joining South Harmon “S.H.I.T. Show” on Patreon at https://www.patreon.com/SouthHarmon.

Roster Construction - We have three years worth of data from the Best Ball Mania Tournament in which we can glean some very interesting notes on the best and worst ways to compete on Underdog. When pouring through the data it becomes apparent that there are not only certain Roster Constructions (the number of players to draft at each position) that perform better but also the ideal ranges to target different positions throughout the draft. This Roster Construction section is a snapshot of the most ideal roster, based upon both WoRP data and the amazing analysis that Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) does over at the Underdog Network. We will be taking a deeper dive into the analysis behind Roster Construction in part two of this Underdog series, which focuses on strategy. 

Sheets 2-13 - 1.01-1.12: An eternity later after you have finished scoring and color-coding each player (if you so choose), it’s now time to replicate this Cornerstone sheet into 12 more sheets. Drafting from the 1.01 position is massively different from the 1.12 slot, especially when observing ADP. If most users are drafting in respect of ADP, then it’s not too difficult to map out the players that will likely be available at each of your selections. Having each of these dedicated draft position sheets can make all the difference, especially when the draft position is an unknown until after you join the lobby.

An additional advantage to having dedicated sheets for each draft slot is potential stacking! Stacking is a strategy in which managers draft pairs of teammates - typically consisting of QB’s & their top receiving option(s). Stacking is a major emphasis in my Underdog drafts and is often in the same breath as prime playoff matchups as the greatest edge in best ball. 

I begin this process first considering which teams I would be willing to draft their respective QB (27 QB’s for me in 2023). The next step is arranging in order of ADP the QB’s fellow teammates. I then rank each stack based upon the combined scores of the QB with their top stack option; with special emphasis on the QB and the offense they operate in. This transitions into identifying which stacks are the most attainable given the first player you have to draft at ADP. There are certain stacks that are pretty much impossible to achieve without seriously reaching ahead (such as Diggs & Allen) or getting extremely lucky with a top player falling to you past ADP. However, there are plenty of stacks (such as the Kelce & Mahomes) that are definitely achievable within a certain range of draft slots.

Sheet 14 - Exposure: The following two sheets on Exposure & Active Drafts are optional given that the information can be found through the Underdog platform, but if you live on the sheet streets like I do then perhaps you’ll find this arrangement preferable as well.

First looking at Exposure, this tells you the percentage of shares you have drafted of a particular player across all of your drafts. Your exposure is strategic for the simple reason you don’t want most of your tournament hopes sinking because you couldn’t stop drafting a player and they suffer a season-ending injury. I personally don’t recommend any exposure on a player exceeding 30-35%.

Sheet 15 - Active Drafts: The final sheet displays all the rosters I am in the middle of drafting. This sheet is only worthwhile if you participate in the Slow-Draft (8 hr timer) lobbies, which is exclusively what I participate in. With the extended selection time, one can methodically map out their strategy by thinking several moves ahead and focus on a portfolio approach across all of their active drafts. If you wait till the end of the off-season, very often you can take advantage of any big news that affects ADP live during your slow-draft as an additional perk as well.

In my Active Drafts section, I track the number of Spike/Above Avg players I’ve drafted, the picks themselves, and I make heavy use of my notes section with players I want to draft with upcoming selections. The final element I focus on is my draft strategy, but we’ll save that for next time!