Week 5 Dossier

Careless Whispers

Briefing

We are 1/3 of the way through the fantasy regular season. Catch your breath and compose yourself. Newer field agents will look upon their fantasy rosters drunk with power, drowning in dismay, or abandoned to oblivion. The top operators on the other hand are keen to observe that a key shift for the remainder of the season is taking place. Without having to be instructed, they understand that this is the time to move off of the risky assets that have overperformed for the established assets that have so far underperformed and to hold onto valuable draft capital so that they can buy the few, surviving difference-makers later in the season. 

It is at this time that your superior officers prove their reliability. There will be some who spend most of their resources victory-lapping players that they claim they have been “in-on” all along, but the evidence they cite appears to be heavily doctored. These same individuals toss their views on assets like the current of the sea, constantly going back and forth on the player being either the best or worst prospect that they have ever seen. Lastly, they are unable to aid and protect you with actionable intel on how to move forward. These officers are Provocateurs, and they ultimately lead you to get burned or worse. Do not allow yourself to be deceived (either by yourself or others) and remember that victory comes from being one step ahead.

Usage Activity

Please examine carefully the following usage activity reports we have gathered on players from week 5:

Bears vs. Commanders - Justin Field’s maximum effort against the Broncos in week 4 carried over in his week 5 matchup versus the Commanders. Justin’s 125.3 Passer Rating was 3rd best amongst QBs this week and his 4 passing TDs were tied with Brock Purdy for the most. It is interesting to note that Field’s fantasy success as a top 3 QB over the last two weeks has come through the air and not through the ground (only 15 rush attempts for 82 yds combined in wk 4 & 5). Justin’s development as a passer is due largely to the utilization of WR DJ Moore, whose 230 yards receiving were the most in week 5 and his 3 receiving TDs were tied with Ja’Marr Chase for the most. Moore now has the 6th highest PFF grade amongst all WRs in the league (86.6). As great as the last two weeks have looked for Fields, what happens if DJ Moore misses time? Darnell Mooney has blanked on 3/5 games this season and now the rushing attack is banged up with Khalil Herbert potentially missing time. If you are unsure of Justin Fields, this may be your best shot at moving off of him.
Sam Howell and the Commanders have adopted a very different strategy from the Bears in distributing their passing targets to as many different weapons as possible. There were 11 different Washington receivers who were targeted in week 5, 9 in week 4, 7 in week 3, 10 in week 2, and 7 in week 1. Given this offensive philosophy, it is highly unlikely that any single Commanders receiver will distinguish themselves in 2023. However, this also means that Logan Thomas and Curtis Samuel may receive more targets than the average TE and WR3.

Texans vs. Falcons - In a game that was set up for the Falcons to dominate on the ground (Texans have 2nd worst graded rush defense according to PFF), the dynamic duo Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier only managed 86 rushing yards on 31 combined carries. Desmond Ridder entered this game with a 46.78 average passing grade per PFF through the first four weeks of the season and was facing the 4th highest rated coverage group in the league per PFF. In a game that needed Ridder to step up, he went on to have the best game of his career with 28/37 for 329 yards passing, 1 TD through the air and an additional TD on the ground. Kyle Pitts was the major beneficiary of this career passing performance: Pitts’ 7 catches on 11 targets for 87 yards on 53% of the snaps was one of his best games since his rookie year. Drake London (6/9 for 78 yds, 86% snaps) and Jonnu Smith (6/7 for 67 yds, 64% snaps) enjoyed solid outings as well.
Nico Collins’ 88% snap share in week 5 was the highest he had registered all season (the previous high was 76% of snaps). Unfortunately, Nico only caught 3 passes on 4 targets for 39 yards. Nico has the capability of being a very good WR, especially in terms of his explosiveness with his high 8.6 YAC/R. But he is currently being valued as a late 2024 1st as the 22nd-ranked WR on Keep Trade Cut. Even though he is operating on an ascending offense with CJ Stroud, we advise using your 1st round picks on WRs who are a consistent focal point of their offense, and not on an asset who would be considered an upside #2 option on most other teams.

Panthers vs. Lions - An asset who is putting our profilers to the test is Adam Thielen. Ranked top 10 in most scoring formats, the 33-year-old vet is tied with Ja’Marr Chase for the most routes run at 211, and is being targeted on 22% of those routes. Thielen may not have many of the other attributes our agency looks for in a WR, but being ranked as the WR64 according to KTC, he is easily the cheapest WR buy given his usage and production.
After his 20/28 for 236 yards, 3 passing TDs, and 1 rushing TD performance, Jared Goff is now the highest-graded QB in the league by PFF at 88.6. A top 10 QB in most scoring formats, he leads a team that is also graded top 10 in nearly every offensive and defensive category on PFF. Goff is tied with Josh Allen for the 3rd highest yards per pass attempt (8 yds), the highest adjusted completion percentage - the % of aimed passes thrown on target (completions + drops / aimed) (82.9%), is 5th in adjusted QBR (71.0), and is 6th in passer rating (104.4). Given his situation and array of pass-catching weapons, Jared Goff is an easy buy as the QB16 at the price of a late 2024 1st.

Titans vs. Colts - Cut from the similar worn-out cloth as Adam Thielen, DeAndre Hopkins converted his 11 targets into 8 receptions for 140 receiving yards in week 5. Like Thielen, he is easily the most trustworthy WR on his team and is far out-producing his WR57 ranking on KTC. His 30% target share is the 9th best in the league, has a respectable ADOT of 14.45, has the 6th most air yards at 578, and has the 19th highest receiving grade on PFF amongst WRs (80.4). The path to championship glory in 2023 will be paved with crusty WRs.
In a game that brimmed with excitement at the return of one of the sport’s most dynamic players, the reports of Zack Moss’s death were greatly exaggerated. Zack has been one of the best RBs since he took over the starting role in week 2 - he has the 4th highest fantasy points per game average amongst RBs (21.4 PPR pts) and the 3rd most rushing yards (445 yards). Given the RB usage and practices that teams are implementing around the league, it is likely that Moss has earned a 35-45% snap share moving forward alongside Jonathan Taylor.

Giants vs. Dolphins - Very rarely is our agency faced with monitoring a situation as frightening as the New York Giants offense. Their 4th worst PFF passing rating, bottom-ranked o-line rating (both in pass and run blocking), and 2nd worst receiving rating have created a perfect storm of awfulness that is difficult to comprehend (worst overall offense in the NFL). The one and only asset that I am willing to risk myself getting caught within the blast radius of this powder keg is Saquon Barkley, who still offers top 10 upside.
De’Von Achane has 90.2% of the rushing yards on only 38.38% of the rush attempts of league leader Christian McCaffrey (38 att - 460 yds vs. 99 att - 510 yds). Tyreek Hill has 651 receiving yards through 5 games and has reclaimed the accolade for the fastest play recorded this season - a 22.01 mph 64-yard reception. The Giants were a tinderbox ready to be set ablaze by the Dolphins offense.

Saints vs. Patriots - The top field agents in the world understand that the margin for error in determining mission success or failure is razor-thin. Top-tier operator Chris Olave unfortunately found himself out of position on a number of key plays that would have otherwise proved to be a far more productive day for the wideout. Keep tabs on Kendre Miller, who registered 12 carries and 4 catches for 90 total yards on 36% of the snaps. 
It is only week 5, but reviewing some of these offenses has quickly devolved into a game of Reverse Russian Roulette - it’s as if one more awful team is being loaded into the chamber with every week that passes and we are not equipped to describe another atrocious offense like the New England Patriots. 

Ravens vs. Steelers - Lamar Jackson was 22/38 for 236 yards and 1 INT and yet, he is now ranked behind only Jared Goff as the 2nd best passer in the NFL according to PFF. We are beginning to suspect that buried deep Lamar’s PFF grade is a sympathy rating of 100.00, which he was given after his receivers dropped 7 targets in their week 5 divisional bout, including 2 TDs.
We would advise holding off on acquiring George Pickens, who despite having a solid performance (6/10, 130 yards, 1 TD), will likely regress in usage once Diontae Johnson returns and is still on an offense that ranks only ahead of the Giants as one of the worst units in the league.

Eagles vs. Rams - The Rams threw caution to the wind and wasted no time in reacclimating Cooper Kupp into the Los Angeles offense - 8/12 for 118 receiving yards on a 95% snap share.
A.J. Brown is now only behind Tyreek Hill and Brandon Aiyuk as the 3rd highest-rated WR on PFF (90.3 grade) and has accounted for the highest number of air yards amongst receivers (669).   

Waiver Targets

We recommend that you consult with Spymaster Vanek, codename “Whisper,” and carefully review his latest intel from the America’s Game report. In terms of FAAB bidding, it’s best to review your league’s previous waiver behavior to best navigate the wire. The waiver wire will become more bare as the season continues, especially in best ball formats.

• Emari Demercado - 29% rostership, spend up to 2% FAAB (The Undercover Operate strikes again)

• Trenton Irwin - 3% rostership, 0% FAAB (trailed only Ja’Marr Chase in terms of production with 8/10, 60 yds)

Trade Assets

You are scheduled to rendezvous at the corner of Euclid Avenue with our top courier, Officer ATM. At his signal (the flashing of one of his signature coins), you are to discreetly secure the Money Moves package and make your way back to the safe house awaiting further instruction.