Week 4 Dossier

Settling In

Briefing

It is only natural that as highly-trained professionals, our agents will feel the urge to exercise their newfound abilities and test themselves against other combatants. As strong as this inclination is, it is essential to repress this outward course of action. Remember that our battle isn’t waged through superficial displays of strength but beneath the surface through meticulous planning, the subtle allocation of resources, the hoarding of intel, and remaining patient for the perfect opportunity to strike. Suffice it to say, that the agents who survive the longest do not reveal themselves by investing multiple high-priced assets (like 1st round picks) so early into the season. Dig in - we have a long season ahead.

Usage Activity

A player’s usage can prove valuable in determining our season-long plans and moves. Here are some points of interest worth considering:

Lions vs. Packers - There are a number of traits that our RB program uses to assess candidates. They include receiving, rushing, production, usage, and athleticism metrics. Jahmyr Gibbs checks the receiving and athleticism boxes with his targets per route run (28%), target share (13.5%*), Breakaway Run Rate (9.7%*), 99th percentile 40-yard dash, and 92nd percentile speed score. But in terms of every other major RB category, Gibbs is not making the cut compared to others: Fantasy PPG (9.7), routes/g (15*), Yds Created Per Touch (3.32*), Evaded Tackles/g (3.67*), Yds After Contact per attempt (3.15), Dominator Rating (8.6%), Snap Share (46%*), or Red Zone touches (5*). We have not received updated reports that account for week 4 for the metrics with an asterisk, but given the 37% snap share, 8 rush attempts for 40 yards, and 4/5 for 11 yards receiving in week 4, we anticipate not much has improved for the backup RB. Unless David Montgomery misses time or Gibbs sees +50% of the snaps or receives significantly more touches in the red zone, he remains a sell.
The Packers gave their RBs only 10 rushing attempts in this game, which only amounted to 29 yards. Aaron Jones had 1 catch on 2 targets for -4 yards. The running game should be more productive next week against the Las Vegas Raiders. Green Bay will likely be without Luke Musgrave as he makes his way through the maze, but Christian Watson will look to make his presence felt.           

Dolphins vs. Bills - The Miami Special Forces were unsuccessful in their raid on the Bills compound. The unit was unable to apprehend Bills QB Josh Allen, who had a top-3 fantasy performance of his career with 21/25, 320 passing yards, 4 passing TDs, 17 yards rushing, and 1 rushing TD. Miami was also unable to neutralize Stefon Diggs, who had a top-5 PPR performance of his career with 6 catches on 7 targets for 120 yards and 3 TDs.
De’Von Achane fought admirably in this operation with 101 yards and 2 TDs on only 8 carries. Achane led the ground attack with 60% of the snaps ahead of Mostert who had 43%. Braxton Berrios has just as many targets (16) as Jaylen Waddle through the first 4 weeks, has one more catch than Waddle with 13, and is right behind Jaylen in air yards (175 yds vs. 185 yds) and ADOT (10.29 vs. 11.38) despite running 10 less routes as Waddle.

Vikings vs. Panthers - This was not the week to buy the hype on Kirk Cousins - 12/19 for 139 yards, 2 TDs, and 2 INTs. Once thought to be detained at a CIA Black Site, the Vikings RBs were spotted running efficiently in this matchup: Alexander Mattison - 17 carries for 95 yards on a 69% snap share, Cam Akers - 5 carries for 40 yards on a 29% snap share.
The Panthers are heading towards a complete collapse of state after their massive investment in the QB arms race. The offensive infrastructure the Carolina brass has surrounded Bryce Young with ranks bottom 10 in pass blocking, run blocking, receiving, and rushing according to PFF. This has culminated in Bryce performing as the 2nd worst PFF-graded QB (minimum 50 pass attempts) so far this season. It would appear that despite showing the capability to stage a QB coup d'état with Dalton, the Panthers have opted for a far more painful and exhausting approach to toughen the minds of their fans.

Broncos vs. Bears - Never has this agency witnessed a QB exert more effort to pass for 300 yards as we saw with Justin Fields in week 4. His 335 yards and 4 passing TDs were not only the best marks of any QB in week 4 but both were career highs for the signal caller. Khalil Herbert dominated the usage and production amongst the Bears RBs, with 18 carries for 103 yards rushing and 4 catches on 5 targets for 19 yards and 1 TD on 78% of the snaps.
Jaleel McLaughlin led all Broncos RBs with 7 carries for 72 yards rushing and 3 catches for 32 yards and 1 TD on 33% of the snaps. Russell Wilson currently has a 106.7 passer rating (3rd behind Purdy and Tua) and is in a 3-way tie for the 2nd most passing TDs (9) so far this season.

Bengals vs. Titans - The dismantling of the Cincinatti superpower has been all but subtle and covert; our agents close to the situation have reported high levels of turmoil and panic that can be heard clearly behind closed doors within the Bengals headquarters. These reports include accusations of the Bengals running the 4th worst offense in the NFL per PFF, the 6th worst overall defense in the league, the 7th worst pass blocking, the 8th worst run game, and to our utter shock the worst receiving grade of all 32 teams. After pushing our agents to infiltrate deeper, we are now receiving reports that Joe Burrow has the quickest time to throw of any QB in the league with at least 20 pass attempts (2.29 seconds), which we conclude Joe is doing out of self-preservation, and thus has led to the 3rd lowest ADOT (6.4 yds) amongst passers with at least 50 pass attempts (Bryce and Dak are tied with the lowest at 6.2 yds).
There are no further updates to report for the Tennessee Titans at this time.

Patriots vs. Cowboys - Dak Prescott’s league low ADOT has greatly benefited Jake Ferguson, who leads the Cowboys receivers on targets per route run at 27%. Running the same RB Trials for Tony Pollard as we conducted with Jahmyr Gibbs, Pollard was 8th or worse in every major category outside of red zone touches, in which he ranked 1st. But despite being tied with Derrick Henry for the 2nd most carries in the league (73 att) behind Christian McCaffrey and receiving so many goal line opportunities, Pollard only has 2 TDs so far through 4 weeks of games.
As average and somewhat disappointing Pollard has been, Rhamondre Stevenson’s latest performance has pushed him to where he no longer qualifies as a top 24 RB in PPG. Rhamondre’s 1.75 yards created after contact per attempt is tied with Trey Sermon for 92nd in the league amongst rushers.

Cardinals vs. 49ers - Brock Purdy’s 20/21 for 283 yds passing and 1 TD (plus 1 rushing TD) performance elevated him to being 3rd in the NFL in completion percentage (72.3%), 8th in yards passed (1,019 yds), 2nd in yards per attempt (9.1 yds), 1st in adjusted quarterback rating (84.6), and 1st in passer rating (115.1). Brock’s production currently ranks him in the top 12 amongst fantasy quarterbacks in most scoring formats so far this season. Millions of dollars in resources are being spent across the league in trying to capture and study the asset, who has put every agency’s evaluation process to the test.
Another quarterback who is far outperforming expectations is Joshua Dobbs, who since discovering the power to run, has put together a QB 5, 16, and 8 performance against some of the toughest defenses in the league the past 3 weeks.

Chiefs vs. Jets - Isiah Pacheco’s performance against the Jets was easily the best of his career - 20 attempts, 115 yards, 1 rushing TD, and 3 catches for 43 yards (60% snap share).
Zach Wilson apparently only plays well if the primetime lights are on, the competition is stiff, and he’s in front of his home crowd. Zach was 28/39 for 245 yards and 2 TDs.  Unfortunately, there is only one game remaining on the schedule that fits these parameters for the rest of the season (Nov 6th vs. the LA Chargers). Luckily the Jets have the fortune of visiting the Broncos next, who can turn any mere mortal into a fantasy super soldier.    

WR Interests

This agency devotes considerable resources to identifying and cultivating the most capable prospects for our most rigorous missions. We will begin our selection process by first assessing our WR candidates.

PPG (PPR) - There is a wide gap between the top WR in this category (Justin Jefferson - 25.8 pts) and the 12th best WR (Amon-Ra St. Brown - 17.4 pts).  The biggest surprises in this category are Puka Nacua (23.9 pts) and Nico Collins (20.7 pts).

Target Share - Davante Adams’ 40% target share is 5% ahead of the next best WR, Tyreek Hill. Puka is 3rd in the league with a 33% target share, and Zay Flowers is 10th in the NFL with a 29% target share.

Air Yards - Davante Adams once again leads the pack with 569 air yards through 4 weeks in the season. Closely behind Adams is Justin Jefferson with 565 air yards and Tyreek Hill with 548 air yards. Both Rams teammates Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell rank inside the top 12 in air yards at 467 and 395 air yards respectively.

Yards After The Catch/Per Reception - Nico Collins and Jaylen Waddle are both tied for 1st with 8.8 YAC/R, followed closely by Deebo Samuel with 8.3 YAC/R. There are 4 rookies that rank inside the top 12 of this category, including Zay Flowers (8 YAC/R), Marvin Mims (7.6 YAC/R), Rashee Rice (5.8 YAC/R), and Tank Dell (5.5 YAC/R).

Yards Per Route Run - Marvin Mims Jr. far outpaces every other WR in this category with his 6.21 yards per route run. Brandon Aiyuk ranks 2nd in the league at 4.57 yards per route run.

Targets Per Route Run - Davante Adams leads the NFL at 35% in this category when filtering for at least 30 routes ran. There are surprisingly two Kansas City Chiefs WRs that rank 3rd and 4th in the league in TPRR with Kadarius Toney (33%) and Rashee Rice (32%). 
 
Average Depth of Target - Marvin Mims Jr. has the highest ADOT (22.82 yards) amongst WRs when excluding WRs with less than 10 targets. There are two different Chiefs WRs who rank 2nd and 3rd in this category with Justin Watson (21.92 yds) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (18.2 yds).

QB PFF Grade - Tua Tagovailoa, Trevor Lawrence, and Jared Goff are the three highest graded passers in the NFL so far in 2023 according to PFF. The biggest surprise in PFF’s top 12 is Ryan Tannehill because he is freaking terrible.

Overall Score - Though Mike Evans wasn’t the best in any individual category, he ranked in the top 13 in every single category (a feat no other WR achieved) and is easily the most underrated WR this season. Keenan Allen also deserves recognition for performing as a top 5 receiver so far this year. The perception of Puka Nacua’s dominance is backed up by the numbers - he is performing like a top-6 WR. Marvin Mims Jr.'s big play ability makes him the perfect buy in best ball leagues. 

Waiver Targets

In terms of FAAB bidding, it’s best to review your league’s previous waiver behavior to best navigate the wire. 

• Jaleel McLaughlin - 50% rostership, spend up to 5% FAAB in BB (Given the high rostership, it would appear that this intel was leaked last week. Steakhouses appear to be the best lead we have in finding this Undercover Operative)

• Braxton Berrios - 32% rostership, 4% FAAB (carving out a role amidst other talented weapons)

• Jonnu Smith  - 19% rostership, 3% FAAB (has become the preferred target in the worst passing offense)

• Ronnie Rivers - 24% rostership, 3% FAAB (the Rams finally gave another RB a chance; Ronnie played decent)

• Nick Westbrook-Ikhine - 31% rostership, 0-1% FAAB (leads the Titans in routes, 2nd in targets)

• Andrew Ogletree - 2% rostership, 0% FAAB (ARich targets his TEs, Ogletree is currently the top-ranked PFF TE)

Trade Assets

Marvin Mims, Jayden Reed, Michael Wilson, and Rashee Rice are all rookie WRs with intriguing profiles and roles who finished inside the top 40 of the WR trials and can be possibly had for a 2nd +. Add one of these talented young players before their cost becomes prohibitive. As amazing as De’Von Achane has been (2nd only behind Christian McCaffrey in our RB Program), it’s best not to invest the elite trade capital these assets demand at this stage of the season. RBs especially have a tendency to end up like your favorite Game of Thrones character: not surviving through the whole season.