Week 6 Dossier

Take a Chance

Assignment

The reports of those who have been wounded in the line of duty continue to mount every week. Soon, it will become apparent that the most capable agents are those with the depth and the draft capital to survive the unforgiving season. But perhaps the highest level of skill is found in operators who know when to risk acquiring an asset before the competition does. This can often be achieved by flipping an underperforming asset that carries dynasty value for an older, highly productive veteran. There will be many champions crowned at the end of this year who did not hesitate in forgoing youth and were willing to pay a little more than the competition for these league-winning assets. Read the following (and previous) dossier carefully for the full report on these trade targets.

Field Surveillance

There are teams that continue to separate themselves in their offensive prowess as the season develops. Each of these teams is commanded by a field general capable of distributing the ball to multiple targets downfield, even in the face of heavy opposition. These teams are the Miami Dolphins, Detroit Lions, and Los Angeles Rams. These offenses are additionally grounded by a highly effective ground assault, but the Los Angeles Rams may have to take the skies with uncertainty surrounding Kyren Williams’ injury. Their competent defenses will keep them in the fight against their opponents, giving their strategists the choice to attack through the ground or the air, as well as ample opportunities to score off of turnovers. Acquiring assets on well-rounded teams is advantageous for mission success and these three teams have looked the part so far. Teams such as the 49ers, Bills, and Eagles each appear to be saving their strength for when it matters most, which is why it will be crucial to acquire assets from these squads as well (losing to lesser opponents can often serve as catalysts for Super Bowl caliber teams the rest of the way). The Ravens, Seahawks, Jaguars, Cowboys, and Bengals all have the talent to go far, but for unknown circumstances, their offenses still haven’t ascended to safe altitudes.

Usage Activity

The following reports are the latest from our field agents regarding week 6 action. Here are some points of interest worth considering:

Giants vs. Bills - James Cook (14 carries for 71 yds) and Latavius Murray (12 carries for 45 yds) both saw 49% of the snaps on offense; this is the 2nd time this season Cook has received less than 50% of the snaps (the other instance was against Miami). It will be difficult to trust Cook as anything more than a FLEX for the remainder of the season. Stefon Diggs is 4th in FPTS/G (23.2), 2nd in TDs (5), 3rd in receptions (49), 3rd in Yds (620), 4th in targets per route run (30%), and 4th in air yards (721). His final slate of opponents from week 12-17 include the Eagles, bye, Chiefs, Dallas, Chargers, and Patriots - all opponents he could terminate with extreme prejudice.
Saquon Barkley is the lone sliver of hope in the Wasteland of the Meadowlands; he had 24 carries for 93 yards rushing (4/5 for 5 yds receiving) on 78% of the snaps. If you find yourself trapped and in desperate need of points, look for other routes of escape before you turn to Darren Waller or Wan’Dale Robinson. 

Eagles vs. Jets - What is the difference between A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith in 2023? PPG (PPR): A.J. (20.2), DeVonta (12.2) - Target Share: A.J. (30%), DeVonta (23%) - Air Yards %: A.J. (46%), DeVont (33%) - YAC: A.J. (269 yds), DeVonta (70 yds) - Yds/RouteRun: A.J. (2.93), DeVonta (1.37) - Tgts/RouteRun: A.J. (25%), DeVonta (18%) - ADOT: A.J. (14.12), DeVonta (13.43 yds). It is a Flawless Victory for Brown over Smith so far this season. Defecting half of your DeVonta shares in favor of A.J. would be highly advantageous on any contending team. But exercise caution: if Brown were to miss time, DeVonta would dominate as the #1. D’Andre Swift had 10 carries and 10 targets versus the Jets for 58 total yards and a TD; he is now 11th in carries and 5th in targets amongst RBs.
The New York Jets Squadron have had their dream shot and have gone up against some of the best teams in the NFL. Their defensive capabilities kept things close in their dogfight versus the Eagles, making it possible for Breece Hall to remain involved throughout their contest; his snap-share continues to increase week by week (66% vs Eagles). The Met Life Air Wing is home base to two squadrons with elite RBs and nothing else to offer in terms of offensive firepower.  
  
Cardinals vs. Rams - Since returning to active duty in week 5, Cooper Kupp has been 4th amongst WRs in all of the following categories: targets (22), receptions (15), receiving yards (266), YAC (104), and yards/route run (3.86). Kupp has accomplished this on 97.2% of the snaps and appears to have maintained a strong rapport with his QB, Matthew Stafford. As encouraging as Kupp’s return to form has been, there are other candidates our agency would prefer to pursue given Kupp’s probability of re-injury and age.
Marquise Brown was well on his way to being a top-12 WR last year before injuries to both him and Kyler Murray derailed their season. In 2023, Hollywood is reminding us of his ability as a top-20 WR, and could be one of the best buys at this point of the season considering his value increase if Kyler were to return before the fantasy playoffs.

Panthers vs. Dolphins - It was quite admirable watching the Panthers launch a surprise attack on the Miami Special Forces and go up 14 points in the 1st quarter. It didn’t take long for Miami to execute a counterattack with three consecutive touchdowns and all but neutralize Carolina by halftime. One of the biggest surprises of 2023 is top 3 fantasy WR, Adam Thielen, who over the past month has risen 124 spots in dynasty rankings on Keep Trade Cut, including 43 spots at his position from WR 100 to WR 57. Gone is the opportunity to acquire Thielen for 2x 3rd-round picks, but he is still a value buy considering his WR 57 price. Our intel officers recommend either trading a 3rd-round pick plus another asset (preferably younger in order to attract ageist managers) or an underperforming player that ranks ahead of Thielen (such as Treylon Burks, Elijah Moore, or Jahan Dotson).
The only boomer asset overshadowing Thielen’s production in 2023 has been Raheem Mostert, the 2nd best RB in fantasy. Various RB metrics outside of PPG may not indicate Raheem to be an elite RB, but his speed, goal-line usage (leads RBs in total TDs - 11), and overall role as the lead back on an elite offense have all vaulted him into being an attractive fantasy asset. Managers holding Raheem will surely require a 1st-round pick, but we recommend appealing to potential Mostert sellers with a 2nd-round pick plus an additional asset or circling back to these managers later on in the season. 

Colts vs. Jaguars - Travis Etienne was not given much of a chance heading into the 2023 season - he had missed his entire rookie campaign due to injury, had an up-and-down year in 2022, and many believed that Tank Bigsby was a shoo-in to supplant Travis as the lead back some point this season. Etienne has quieted many of his doubters over the last two weeks as the RB1 and RB2 and has used his league-high 113 carries to elevate himself as the 3rd best runner so far this season. The only RB with a firmer stranglehold of snaps compared to Travis’ 79% (tied with Josh Jacobs)  is the recently injured Kyren Williams’ 83%.
The Colts fell behind quickly in this matchup after a slew of turnovers and punts, causing them to neglect their running led by Jonathan Taylor (8 carries) and Zach Moss (7 carries). Michael Pittman’s 9/14 for 109 yards was the receiving performance of consequence.   

TE Interests

The Tight End position is unlike any other asset operating in the field given the extreme difficulty in identifying the top prospects outside of the elite. It is for this reason that this agency has based much of our TE Camp on the same rigorous standards of our WR selection process.

PPG (PPR) - Several points per game separate Travis Kelce as the top agent (17.7 pts) and Mark Andrews (14.3 pts). Sam LaPorta (13.3 pts), T.J. Hockenson (12.7 pts), and Cole Kmet round out the top 5 as the best fantasy producers so far this season.

Targets Per Route Run - One of the largest gaps across our testing metrics was Kelce’s 32% TPRR, which is 7% higher than LaPorta’s and Jake Ferguson’s* 25% (*doesn’t include wk 6 data). Zach Ertz and Vikings teammates Hockenson and Josh Oliver each have a 23% TPRR. 

Yards Per Route Run - Travis leads this category as well with 2.4 yards/route run, followed by Noah Fant (2.17 Y/RR), Trey McBride (1.99 Y/RR), LaPorta (1.93 Y/RR), and Jonnu Smith (1.92 Y/RR).

Yards Per Team Pass Attempt - Finally, a category that Travis Kelce isn’t perfect at. Mark Andrews is the best TE in this category (1.95 yds), followed by LaPorta (1.82 yds), Kelce (1.81 yds), Kmet (1.52 yds), and Evan Engram (1.42 yds).  

Air Yards % - Darren Waller and Kyle Pitts both share the top spot in air yards percentage at 27%, followed by LaPorta (23%), Andrews (21%), and Kelce (21%).  

Average Depth of Target - Kyle Pitts follows up his air yards performance with having the best ADOT amongst all TEs (11.9 yds), followed by Andrew Ogletree (10.4 yds), Patriots TEs Mike Gesicki & Hunter Henry (9.3 yds each), and George Kittle (8.8 yds).

Yards After The Catch - Evan Engram runs away with this category with 188 yards after the catch. Kelce (147 YAC), LaPorta (141 YAC), Jonnu (138 YAC), and Hockenson (124 YAC) round out the top five.

Receiving Snaps (running a receiving route) - Tyler Higbee was the highest in this metric with 221 receiving snaps, followed by Dallas Goedert (216 snaps), Waller (212 snaps), Engram (210 snaps), and Hockenson (204 snaps).

Pass Blocking % (min 10 tgts) - Dalton Kincaid had the lowest pass-blocking percentage of tight ends with a minimum of 10 targets at 0.7%. Pitts (1%), Hayden Hurst (1.1%), Kyle Granson (1.2%), and Gesicki (1.5%) all see very minimum usage as blockers in passing situations.

Red Zone Targets - Jake Ferguson has the most red zone targets amongst TEs with 11 targets. Travis Kelce has 9 RZ targets, Ertz has 8, and Hockenson, Kmet, & Dalton Schultz each have 7.

TE Team Usage (Wks 2-5) - This final category encapsulates the expected half-PPR fantasy points based on each NFL team’s usage of their TEs. The Falcons lead the league in utilizing their TEs, with 20 expected ½-PPR pts. The Chiefs are second with 16.4 expected ½-PPR pts. The Commanders are third with 15.6 expected ½-PPR pts.

Overall - Through 6 weeks of of action, it is a tight race amongst the elite TEs Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, newcomer Sam LaPorta, and T.J. Hockenson, but unlike previous years there isn’t a massive gulf separating the top TEs from the rest. Even if Kelce appears less god-like in his production compared to previous years, he is still likely to finish as the TE1 in 2023.

Waiver Targets

Spymaster Vanek will provide the latest intel through his America’s Game report. In terms of FAAB bidding, it’s best to review your league’s previous waiver behavior to best navigate the wire. The waiver wire will become more bare as the season continues, especially in best ball formats.

Trade Assets

We have received reports that the Money Moves package Officer ATM was carrying to the rendezvous last week was intercepted and has fallen into enemy hands. Luckily, that package was a decoy and filled with high-valued players that disappointed in week 6. As discussed in the Usage Activity, Adam Thielen and Raheem Mostert are priority assets to acquire. Michael Wilson remains a target of interest for the same upside Marquise Brown has. Lastly, Curtis Samuel may not appear on many analytical radars, but he has dominated defensive backs in the last two weeks and appears to be a focal point of the Bieniemy Operation.