Underdog 40,000
The stir of infected winds howled as the Space Marine labored through the trenches. Once a place of deafening destruction and incessant frenzy was now hollow with mumbled groans and subdued anguish. The marine’s armor sunk deep into the blackened mud as he kneeled beside one of his comrades. The stricken soldier was immobile, albeit the frequent shudders of mind-numbing pain, often progressing into convulsions of indescribable agony. The fallen soldier’s skin was translucent and pale, as fragile as dead, soiled leaves. His body was covered with pockets of sunken yellowed sores. His milk-white eyes rolled restlessly as he clung to life until his labored breath came to an abrupt standstill.
Part 3 - TE & WR Hits, Misses, and Projections
The Green God
The stir of infected winds howled as the Space Marine labored through the trenches. Once a place of deafening destruction and incessant frenzy was now hollow with mumbled groans and subdued anguish. The marine’s armor sunk deep into the blackened mud as he kneeled beside one of his comrades. The stricken soldier was immobile, albeit the frequent shudders of mind-numbing pain, often progressing into convulsions of indescribable agony. The fallen soldier’s skin was translucent and pale, as fragile as dead, soiled leaves. His body was covered with pockets of sunken yellowed sores. His milk-white eyes rolled restlessly as he clung to life until his labored breath came to an abrupt standstill.
Every marine that lived through the initial onslaught and saw the Virus Bomb fall was now at various stages of the same affliction. Their forces overrun by Tyranids, the Imperium saw no alternative than to unleash their bioweapon upon the planet’s surface as the final solution. The bomb was dropped with one legion holding out as the final remnant of defense. No order of retreat was given to the soldiers. The weapon was designed to wipe out all non-human combatants instantly, which it did to great effect. Unfortunately, any member of the Imperium caught in the winds of its fallout suffered a maligned and drawn-out death.
“There is no honor in this,” the marine said as he stared at his dead comrade. “The Imperium has abandoned us. Forgotten by the Emperor Himself. What is left other than for us to vanish completely out of memory and into death?”
“Do not lose heart brother, all must come to rot and ruin before they can be reborn,” the dead soldier muttered with cold breath.
The Space Marine recoiled in horror, “What DEVILRY is this!?”
“Devilry? Ha!” the corpse laughed, its throat choking with phlegm. “My embrace is the most natural phenomenon in all of Creation. I welcome everyone into my home and to eat from my garden,” the dead soldier smiled.
“Who are you?”
“I am the caretaker of castaways, Lord of Decay, shepherd of the dead, and father of the TE.”
“HERESY! TEs are a pestilent position!” the Space Marine said spitefully. “A plague upon the Tournament of Mania!”
They are the first to suffer from any poor offense
(2024 = Sanders, Theo, Chig, Dissly)
So many are overshadowed by the other weapons on offense
(2024 = Jonnu, Goedert, Colby, Otton, Fant, Kmet, Gesiki, Schultz, Musgrave)
It’s only when the #1 receiver is hurt that they rise to championship-level production
(2024 = Bowers, Ferguson, Taysom, Freirmuth, Engram)
So often are they overlooked and misused by their coaches
2023 = Pitts, Dulcich, Chig, Gesicki, Fant (2024 = Freirmuth, Jonnu, Dulcich, Fant, Gesicki)
They can be overtaken by younger, more explosive backups
2023 = Ertz (2024 = Ertz)
Rarely do they become the top redzone option on offenses
2023 = Hunter, Musgrave (2024 = Ertz, Conklin, Bowers)
“And where do you find yourself, servant of the Imperium? Mere weeks ago, you were a proud Legion of the Emperor, feeding off of destruction. But now, as your body swells with foul disease and your wounds rip open to welcome new infections, you have become so much more glorious! You have found a greater purpose in your darkest hour.”
“Greater purpose?” the marine inquired.
“The Imperium may have dropped the bomb on this planet, but by whose power were your allies and enemies brought to putrescence? With every tragedy, you have fought against me, and with every hardship, I have been by your side. I have reached from the muck and mire to increase the weight of your burden, so that day by day you would grow stronger. This testing is the only way to become what all mankind fears most: death.”
“You are a daemon! Here to torture me in my final moments with your poisoned words!”
“I take no pleasure in such things son. I am a god of joy and laughter, not of doom or despair. My children know that each moment is a gift. That is why I have come. To show you.”
“Show me what?”
The dead soldier’s necrotic hand slowly reached toward the Space Marine’s face. The transition was instant. The marine was standing over his own dead body. “I am the Lord of Life and Rot,” said the voice in the soldier’s head. Time passed quickly in the vision. His once lustrous armor quickly browned with rust. “You wave my color green proudly in your banners. But the moment I bloom beneath your skin, you bleed me out.” His skin was alive with flesh-eating bacteria. “Red is the color of your wrath, but green is what your wrath leaves behind.” All that remained was a skeleton, worn down by time. “My decay shall strip your flesh. My verdigris in all of its shades and hues shall cover your skull. Everything you hold dear eventually comes back to me. In the end, I am an inevitability that all must face. All I need is time.”
“What do you want from me?” the marine asked.
“I want you to forget no insult or forgive any slight. Let your bitterness fester and your blood boil. Champion what they hate most. Become a steward of the TE and let your fury spread as a virulent plague across the galaxy. Or, you can spend what little time you have left, wallowing in pain and sorrow.”
The marine peeled his glare away from the Lord of Pestilence and stared down the entrenchment. He was the last living member of his legion. “What must I do?” he finally responded.
“You must:
Recognize the teams that funnel their offenses through their TE
(2024 = Andrews, Kincaid)
Foresee the offenses that are an RB injury away from a pass-heavy offense
(2024 = Ferguson, Kittle, Kincaid, Conklin, Bowers, Njoku, Musgrave, Conklin)
Not fear the aging veteran, but expect a steady volume
(2024 = Kelce, Andrews)
Count on steady volume from solid offenses
(2024 = Kelce, Andrews, LaPorta, McBride, Kincaid, Ferguson, Kittle, Pitts, Ferguson, Conklin, Freirmuth)
“Finally, you must entrust your spirit to me,” the Plaguefather continued. “I will take away all misery and all despair. I will raise your brothers from the dead and give them a new life, free of suffering.”
“Our enemies shall wither and die. The Imperium shall wither and die. The universe shall fall into corruption and from the rot and ruin the Lord of All shall rise,” replied the Plague Marine.
Weaknesses of the Flesh
A man can have anything if he is willing to sacrifice. No other place in the universe tests this principle greater than the Dark Prince’s Realm. Those who enter will not encounter grotesque adversaries of mammoth strength guarding its borders. Nor will they be forced to brave treacherous environments. Such overt obstacles of rebuff serve no purpose here. Instead, the God of Pleasure treats all visitors as honored guests, inviting them to indulge every hunger, gratify every lust, and pursue every whim of desire. A domain of excess and splendor, it draws in all those who wish to experience the spectacular heights of the WR position, and ensnares everyone who falls prey to its many pitfalls. To prove mastery over his flesh, the Primarch approached the first circle of corruption.
Trees of silver and tall fields of gold shimmered brilliantly in the sunlight as the Primarch walked by. Their metallic exteriors sang hypnotically as they swayed back and forth in the cool afternoon breeze. The precious flora grew from a soil of ruby that stretched for miles toward a horizon of sapphire peaks. Just as beautiful as this merchant’s paradise was the gentle voice in the wind that welcomed the Primarch.
“Ahh, a son of the Emperor. No one of your stature has ever graced my realm before,” she said elegantly. “Come with me and explore the treasure of my fields, Primarch. Store up for yourself riches beyond measure. With this wealth, one can truly pave their way in the Tournament with the backing of the WR.”
Spend up for the top options in high-performing offenses
(2024 = Lamb, Tyreek, Amon-Ra, Chase, AJ, Aiyuk, Nico, MHJ, Garrett, Pittman)
Do not worry about any offseason changes. You will have security in these elite options.
(2024 = Olave, Adams, Evans, McLaurin, DK, Amari)
Seek the WRs that can operate at all levels of the field as the major receiving option
(2024 = McLaurin, Olave)
“For many men, fortune is a sea that keeps them afloat during uncertainty. A tide that brings them to new ventures. But more often, it is treacherous swell, tossing them back and forth with its waves of worry, and seeking to pull men down under its crushing pressure,” replied the Primarch. His armored boots constantly kicked loose gemstones that lined the flawless diamond pathway.
Do not overlook age as a significant factor
(2024 = Keenan, Diggs, Ridley, Hopkins, Lockett, Cooks)
Do not discount high-passing offenses with funneled targets
(2024 = Lamb, Amon-Ra, Chase, MHJ)
Do not underestimate line issues or quarterback injuries
(2024 = Nabers, McLaurin, Olave, Kirk, Chase, Amari, Palmer)
Do not overlook the unique and explosive players on amazing offenses
(2024 = Waddle, Worthy, Flowers)
It wasn’t long until the narrow road was littered with the remains of past visitors, who refused to let go of their prized possessions, and were crushed under the weight of their material greed.
The Primarch continued into the second circle, led by the heavenly aroma of smoked meat that wafted through the air. He entered a great hall, dimly lit by candlelight, where a solitary chair was seated at the head of a vast banquet table. Each plate of food was decadently presented, each dish masterfully executed, and each morsel perfectly balanced.
“Come and dine with me, son of the Imperium,” the voice invited. “Take your ease and eat from my table. Drink and bring gladness to your heart. You will need your strength in the Tournament.”
Enjoy these alpha receivers who excelled on less impressive offenses
(2024 = Jefferson, Adams, Nabers, DK, McLaurin, Amari, Pickens, Diontae, Sutton)
Delight in those who benefited from injuries to their WR teammates
(2024 = Aiyuk, Olave, Flowers, Pittman, Moore/Rome, Rice/Worthy, BTJ, Polk)
Look forward to offenses that will perform exceptionally well under new QBs
(2024 = DJ/Rome/Keenan, McLaurin, Pickens, London, Garrett)
“What are these foods compared to the dish served after a hard-fought battle? The meal enjoyed with comrades? The feast you prepare for your son on his name day?” he replied.
Anticipate WRs who emerge as focal points despite various challenges
(2024 = MHJ, Rome, Nabers, BTJ)
Avoid WRs with nagging injuries and fade on explosive offenses
(2024 = Waddle, Tank, Downs)
Prepare for some offenses to dip from the previous year and become less consistent
(2024 = Cooks, Curtis/Shakir, Amari, Evans/Godwin)
Some WRs will feast as the only weapon on struggling offenses
(2024 = Jefferson, Nabers, Diontae, Palmer, Polk)
The plating became increasingly chaotic and haphazardly prepared as the Primarch continued past the foul buffet. At the end of the long table, flickers of suspended chandeliers revealed flayed and charred flesh of an all-too-familiar form. Yesterday’s guest had become today’s meal for the next trencherman to gorge their voracious appetites.
Exiting the great dining hall, moonlight shined on the Primarch as he entered the grounds of a serene palace garden that stretched into the night sky. The royal garden was tremendous in scope, filled with an endless labyrinth of exotic greenery, tranquil pools, and discreet paths fit for a king to seclude themselves in meditation. The Primarch came to the edge of a grand staircase, overlooking the palatial backyard. At the foot of its steps was gathered a large host of the Imperium. Dressed in ceremonial uniform, his comrades and kin honored the Primarch’s triumphant entry with reverent applause. Descending the marble steps, he entered the massed throng of rank and nobility. Hidden amongst the faces of the crowd, the Lord of Excess whispered, “Well done, faithful son of the Imperium. You have brought great honor to your father, the Emperor. Your achievements will be immortalized forever through monuments and songs. Write your name in the stars and take your rightful place as the WR champion.”
Rely upon these secondary options in elite offenses
(2024 = Waddle, Deebo, DeVonta, Kupp, Diggs, Higgins, Cooks)
Be satisfied with these tertiary options
(2024 = Tolbert, Shakir, Robinson, Iosivas, Dortch, Gipson)
Celebrate these consistent receivers and their solidified roles
(2024 = DeVonta, DJ, Deebo, Keenan, Kupp, Godwin, Reed, Cooks, Downs, Curtis, DeMario, Wan’Dale, Boyd, Dortch, Gipson)
The Primarch replied, “These monuments are dust and these songs are merely words, soon forgotten. The calibre of a man runs reverse to their need to make their worth known. The strong are strongest alone!”
Their QB’s poor play will cap their potential
(2024 = Jefferson, Malik, Diontae, Ridley, Amari)
These WRs will struggle under the spotlight of the WR1 role
(2024 = Flowers, Keon, Pickens, Polk)
Inconsistency will hamper their 2024 campaign
(2024 = Waddle, Watson/Doubs/Reed, London, Sutton)
Disappointing offenses will unfairly label these WRs as busts
(2024 = Ladd, Keon, Legette, Franklin)
In an instant, the once lively party fell deathly silent. Each member of the multitude had become a statue of ash that soon collapsed under their weight, creating a vast plain of black soot. The pure white sculptures that once adorned the maze of vegetation had lost all luster. Their dignified poses twisted into horrifying expressions. The peaceful flow of fountains ceased. The venerable garden was now an unnerving graveyard.
The Primarch continued his journey and entered the dark woods at the edge of the decadent estate. With no glow from the moon filtering through the dense tree canopy, the path was lost in the pitch-black forest.
After hours of walking, the Primarch emerged from the cursed grove and gazed upon a magnificent ocean, caught in the solemnity of a twilight sky. The Primarch had reached the presumed last circle of the Dark Prince’s Realm. He wandered through the soft sands of its heavenly shores until he finally stopped to admire the sunrise in all of its glory as night departed. Caught in its rapture, the final temptation could be heard in between the crashing of the waves.
“Oh, devoted son of the Imperium. You have known nothing but war and sacrifice,” she said warmly. “Your body is spent and your soul is weary. You have nothing left to give. Come to me and I will take away all of your pain. Struggle will be but a distant memory. Unburden yourself of your heavy armor. Retire your arms from service. Your fight is over. Peace and rest is yours at last.”
Rest assured, these options will have little competition
(2024 = Olave, Nabers, McLaurin, Ladd/Palmer)
Look forward to these offenses taking a big leap forward with their receivers
(2024 = Colts, Bears, Cardinals, Falcons, Seahawks, Chiefs)
“Rest? We were not made to rest. I have no concern for home or hearth, such things are vanity. My privilege is the dirt, my birthright is suffering, and my freedom is war. Peace? There is no such thing amongst the stars, only an eternity of carnage and slaughter. Find someone else to enslave!” the Primarch laughed at the Thirsting God.
Expect these WRs to develop into excellent route runners on great offenses
(2024 = Amon-Ra, Puka, London, Pittman, Nico, DJ, Waddle)
Have confidence the head coach will transform these receivers into #1’s
(2024 = Pittman, Rice)
Their skillsets pair uniquely well with their upgraded QBs
(2024 = Garrett, London, McLaurin, Pickens)
instrumentum
This series is dedicated to my brother Malik, the Hellhound Primarch
Underdog 40,000
Doubt. Remorse. Fear. These emotions are held back through relentless training and devotion to the Imperium. But in a soldier’s final breaths, the dam they built can come crashing down, flooding their minds with despair. These brief moments of anguish perpetuate into an eternity of torment as the Sea of Chaos sweeps away their souls into the WoRP. Once a peaceful realm, millennia of war and evil have corrupted the WoRP dimension into a hellish landscape, with each new resident being more vile than the previous.
Part 2 - RB & QB Hits, Misses, and Projections
The WoRP
Doubt. Remorse. Fear. These emotions are held back through relentless training and devotion to the Imperium. But in a soldier’s final breaths, the dam they built can come crashing down, flooding their minds with despair. These brief moments of anguish perpetuate into an eternity of torment as the Sea of Chaos sweeps away their souls into the WoRP. Once a peaceful realm, millennia of war and evil have corrupted the WoRP dimension into a hellish landscape, with each new resident being more vile than the previous.
Presiding over this underworld are the Gods of Chaos. Representing the four cornerstone positions, each god has inspired a cult following within the Imperium, and untold billions who have given their lives to the deities. Recognition from the gods as a champion of the faith is the highest honor for a follower. Their reward is a divine blessing of unnatural powers in life and rank among their demonic legions in death. But garnering attention from supreme beings is no easy feat. If ever allowed to kneel before their thrones, each soldier must recount every victory they fought for and every failure they suffered in the Tournament of Mania.
Blood & Bone
The distinct rev of chainswords and cries of battle were all around the solider. Man versus Demon. Apostate against Mutant. The RB Truthers were locked in an eternal skirmish under a crimson sky, from which a ceaseless torrent of skulls rained down. Stretching into the horizon were hills of decaying faces surrounded by an endless ocean of bone and flesh. These were the trophies claimed by the RB Truthers in the Tournament of Mania for their god. He loomed in the distance, as large as a mountain underneath the falling cascade of ivory and marrow upon a throne of brass and skulls. With gauntlets of blackened armor, the figure raised a colossal sword and brought it crashing down upon his bloodstained court, initiating the dreadful proceedings for the newly departed soldier.
“BREAK! RIP! TEAR!” the god’s voice roared. “With shoulders of iron, charge the enemy lines! With unbridled strength, hold back the enemy's advance! With ravenous anger, trample underfoot every foe in your path!!!”
Then came a great shout from the battlefield, “Blood for the Blood God! Skulls for the Skull Throne!”
The Blood God bellowed in laughter as he slowly turned his attention to the latest reinforcement for the perpetual conflict. “And YOU! What spoils do you bring ME?!”
“God of War!” the soldier shouted. “I have done great honor to the RB in the Great Tournament!”
I sought out consistent, central fixtures of offenses
2023 = CMC & Henry (2024 = Henry, Kamara)
I raised up the dual-threat weapon that operated in the top offenses and received ample opportunities
2023 = CMC & Kyren (2024 = CMC & Jacobs)
I foresaw backups usurping starters
2023 = Hubbard (2024 = Spears & Dowdle)
I can envision workhorses who control the entire backfield on successful offenses
(2024 = CMC, Breece, Saquon, Henry, JT, Jacobs, Pacheco, Mixon, ETN, White)
I project little goal-line opportunities for a team that will look to pass in the redzone
2023 = Packers (2024 = Bears)
Finally, I expect the following RBs to play well in rotation and profit from goal-line touches
(2024 = Montgomery, Ray Davis, Gus Edwards)
“MORE! I NEED MORE!!!” barked the god in anger. “Here, there is no peace, only the time wasted between battles. And you have wasted my time with your failures to build my throne!”
Could you not foresee the deterioration of an offense?
(2024 = Singletary, Edwards)
Did you believe this RB could handle being the Bell-Cow?
(2024 = Zamir)
Why didn’t you anticipate injury or lost touches to talented backups?
(2024 = Gibbs, Kyren, Conner, Mostert, A. Jones, Swift)
With so few WRs, could you not count on a run-heavy offense?
(2024 = Breece, Henry, Cook, Kamara, Najee, Rhamondre, Robinson, Pollard, Singeltary, Chuba)
You didn’t prioritize goal-line opportunities on the top offenses?
(2024 = CMC, Henry, Montgomery, Mostert, JT, Jacobs, Mixon, Kyren)
You lost faith these RBs could not compensate for their rushing inefficiency with their catching prowess?
(2024 = ETN, Cook, Jacobs, Kamara)
You were not ready for the age cliff?
(2024 = Mostert, Ekeler, Conner, Kamara, Mixon)
You couldn’t discern the wide talent gap between the backup and the starter?
(2024 = Charbonnet, Ekeler, Kendre)
You fell victim to Preseason hype?
(2024 = Steele, Wright, Vidal)
Did you misjudge his potential role in an ambiguous backfield?
(Chase Brown, Zeke)
“Master! Allow me to return to the Tournament of Mania! With this knowledge, I will spill more blood for your battlefield and claim more skulls for your throne,” the soldier cried out with his fist clenched.
“There are none who can stand in our way. None who can match our power. None who are feared more on the battlefield,” the Blood God boiled. “But you do not seek destruction, nor do you revel in gore you coward!” he snapped. “Wrath, fury, strength… these are the weapons my warriors use to wage war and shake the foundations of the WoRP! You are not fit to champion the way of the RB,” he said pointing at the soldier.
“But master!” the soldier cried out as he was descended upon by the demonic servants forged in the hellscape.
Unworthy of the warrior’s paradise, the soldier’s soul was tossed into the infinite void of the WoRP stream, where he would be feasted upon for the rest of time.
The Maze of Madness
“How long have we wandered this labyrinth?” the reflection inquired. “Years? Days? Millennia?” asked the figure in the crystal walls. “Who are you again? Help me to recollect.”
The Commander gritted his teeth and dared not to look at his reflection in the mirrored walls of the maze. “Through trial comes triumph,” he constantly recited. It was the latest in an endless loop of tormenting visions and living nightmares meant to tear the mind asunder. Such is the price when entering the Realm of the Sorcerer in pursuit of infinite knowledge. Nowhere else in the universe does chaos exist more purely than in the dimension of change, the domain of the Great Mutator.
“You’re not really here. This place is just a figment of your imagination,” the shadow continued. “You’re probably wandering through the trenches of a forgotten battlefield, raving to yourself like a shell-shocked maniac, waist-deep in corpses. You’ll never survive the Tournament of Mania!”
“I shall pass out of darkness and reach the light,” the Commander said to himself.
Turning a corner, the high-ranking soldier finally reached what he long sought. The ninth and final gate would grant passage out of the Crystal Labyrinth and into the Impossible Fortress. Hidden deep inside the castle was the legendary Hidden Library, where every truth, thought, reality, and possibility existed as written catalogs. The imperial officer inched closer to the portal, ablaze in pink and blue WoRPfire. Hanging over the large doorway floated a large disembodied mouth.
“The Changer of Ways bids thee welcome,” smiled the grotesque mouthpiece, widening the gashes in its lips.
“Guardian of the Maze, the Weaver of Destinies has brought me here before you, to follow the ambitious path of the QB. I seek their sorcerous powers to bend fate to my will and reshape reality. I vow to reject error, cast out ignorance, and eradicate impurfection. I understand in the Tournament of Mania:
QBs that have a strong cast of redzone pass-catchers , as well rushing upside, have the strongest potential
(2024 = Hurts, Kyler, Caleb)
The elite rushers have the safest floors and highest ceilings
(2024 = Lamar, Richardson, Daniels)
Some will outperform their ADP because of their surrounding talent
(2024 = Geno, Baker, Rodgers, Carr)
And some will elevate their subpar environments
(2024 = Daniels, Russell)
“Ahhh, you boast of perfection, son of the Imperium!?” chomped the gatekeeper. “But the Raven God is both the Lord of Change and Entropy. What are the heights of enlightenment compared to the inescapable chasms of darkness? To know what waits in the shadows and screams in the night. To be a Dark God is to understand the deepest depths of fear itself.”
“Please lord, let me gaze upon these hidden secrets!” said the Imperium Commander.
The mouth grinned, flashing its pointed yellow teeth and black gums. “Very well.”
Offenses significantly decline from a lack of explosive weapons
2023 = Mahomes (2024 = Allen, Herbert)
Some QBs have excellent rushing upside, but struggle with processing
2023 = Fields (2024 = Levis)
There are QBs we are still waiting on to operate at their potential
(2024 = TLaw, Watson)
Some teams become top passing offenses that few anticipated
2023 = Cowboys, Packers (2024 = Bengals)
Few offenses are built to make the jump from good to elite
2023 = Lions (2024 = Falcons)
Rookie QBs on projected weak teams are often underestimated
(2024 = Maye, Nix)
Low expectations for high passing volume and a career resurgence can spell value
2023 = Baker (2024 = Russell, Young, Darnold)
The Commander stared into the void of the portal as the Guardian’s abominable speech slowly entered his mind. A deep sorrow washed over him as distant and forgotten memories came back into thought. These recollections were slowly remade into new, foreign images, as if his psyche were being corrupted by an outside force. On instinct, he closed his eyes to shield himself from the mental bombardment, but this only quickened the perverse nightmare he was suffering. Unable to fathom the primordial horrors that had invaded his soul, the soldier cried out in terror. A tentacled tongue burst out of the commander’s mouth, wrapping itself around his face. Soon, hairy arachnid appendages and insect antennae ripped through his skin as he transformed. Beginning in his mind and shifting to his body, the metamorphosis was complete. The Imperial Officer was now another loyal spawn for the Great Conspirator to puppet, fulfilling what the deceiving god had fated long ago.
instrumentum
This series is dedicated to my brother Malik, the Hellhound Primarch
Underdog 40,000
It is the 41st Millennium in the Solum Canis galaxy. For centuries the Emperor has sat upon a boisterous throne as the ruler of the Imperium, by the will of the gods. He leads a never-ending campaign, turning the galaxy into his arena where he presides over a tournament of endless chaos.
Part 1 - Review of 2023
The Imperium
It is the 41st Millennium in the Solum Canis galaxy. For centuries the Emperor has sat upon a boisterous throne as the ruler of the Imperium, by the will of the gods. He leads a never-ending campaign, turning the galaxy into his arena where he presides over a tournament of endless chaos.
At the Emperor’s right hand is seated the Council of Creation. They manifest his will through the hellbent expansion of the Imperium. But now, the Council serves as regents with unlimited power for an emperor who has lost his mind to madness. They control all legions throughout the galaxy, including the Enlisted Guard, the Data Harvesters, the Scouting Conclave, and the Furnace Brotherhood. This untold myriad of forces keeps every horror that gushes through from the galactic rim at bay. It is their sacred duty to wage war against the degenerate, the apostate, and the demonic.
Five years into this latest Tournament of Mania, a new season of war is fast approaching and the Council deliberates on how they will wage their upcoming offensive. But before your league can be mobilized, the previous year’s campaign must be carefully reviewed.
Pandemonium
Functioning as the brain for the Imperial Legion are the Data Harvesters. They are gatekeepers to secret knowledge and arm the Emperor’s forces with invaluable intel. Operating in Hives throughout the galaxy, their bodies are suspended by countless life support tubes and drains, including a canopy of neural lines directly farming raw data to their brains.
The following summary report is comprised of four major categories:
Hits, Misses, & Injuries by Round
ADP Inaccuracy by Round
Hits vs Misses by Position
ADP Inaccuracy by Position
A “Hit” is categorized by a player’s 2023 Underdog ADP aligning with their season finish within a particular threshold:
Over 65% of Underdog ADP (top 219 players) completely missed the mark.
More than 13% of the top 254 players missed 6 or more games due to injury.
The average discrepancy between a player’s Underdog ADP and their 2023 finish was 19.23 places. In other words, on average the top 219 players were drafted 19 spots early/late.
The hit rate surpassed 50% in only 3/21 rounds.
The poorest drafted position in 2023 was WR. They were on average drafted two rounds early.
The poorest round came at the end of the draft, where the average 18th-round player was drafted 23.79 spots early/late. WRs in this range were drafted an average of 38.04 spots late/early.
Those who fought in last year’s crusade were subjected to a cruel existence, where only a third of the Imperium’s forces survived the evil Hordes. Will this intelligence prove worthy of the Council’s plans for the upcoming campaign? In a universe of doom, can there be progress or understanding?
Abandon Hope
The Data Harvesters are one side of a double-edged sword for the Emperor. Steering the Imperium’s politics is the Scouting Conclave. As a royal priesthood gifted in prophecy, they discern the paths to victory and counsel the Emperor on galactic dangers. Their Tabernacles travel as bastions across the stars, spreading the Emperor’s propaganda and instilling fanaticism throughout the Legion’s ranks. In the darkness of their innermost shrines, the clerics keep vigil as they profess the Imperatoris Sacramenta - The Emperor’s Sacraments. By unrelenting faith, the Emperor’s Legions endure the gods’ testing and bear the sacred burdens.
But many have strayed from the path and fallen into foul corruption. Their purpose has become vile, their strength lecherous, and their souls damned. To protect the Emperor’s Legions, the Conclave warns of divine judgment across the Imperium:
Woe to those who scorn the Elite QB and WR
Woe to those who place too much faith in unknown assets
Woe to those who align themselves with vile offenses
Woe to those who chase after backups or low-ceiling players
Many QBs and RBs will have their days cut short, and the Imperium will be thrown into darkness
Therefore, pursue the elite QB duo, do not doubt a third QB, stand firm in the elite WR trio, consecrate all-powerful offenses, and devote yourself entirely to alphas
11th Place Finish - Too many swings at unknown assets
The Cursed Sector
Far from the light of the Emperor, a distress signal is received from the desolate system Mortuus Zona - The Dead Zone. In a sector plagued by unpredictable WoRP surges and anomalies beyond comprehension, it is a haven for the apostate, the demonic, and the degenerate. Vast and deadly, Imperium forces are completely cut off from any hope of aid in the grim dark. The distress signal’s origin is a derelict Tabernacle, likely caught in the maelstrom of a WoRP surge. Hidden aboard the vessel exists the most powerful weapon in the Legion’s arsenal, developed by the Furnace Brotherhood.
An ancient guild of master craftsmen, the Brotherhood supplies the imperial war machine with its most deadly tools. Operating in the remotest sectors of the galaxy, their work often remains a terrible secret. This includes a new age of WoRP Technology, powerful enough to harness the energy of surges and convert them into limitless powerplants for machinery and devastating weaponry against any threat. Without this technology, the nests of the Horde would continue to fester unchecked, and eventually spill into the Imperium with the force of a tidal wave.
Utilizing WoRP Tech, we can gather:
Outside of the RB #1, WRs rule the galaxy by a significant margin
The Top 4 QBs overshadow TEs before trading blows for the rest of the draft
The Call
The path to glory is wrought with blood and toil. Each misstep magnified a thousandfold in the Tournament of Mania. In the arena of chaos, whispers of doubt will echo, the aroma of death will choke, the weight of despair will crush, and the eyes of annihilation will forever follow. These enemies are no foes to be conquered in a distant world but rather the demons that wreak havoc within ourselves. Vanquish the nemesis within, quiet their mockery, ready yourself for war, and answer the call to VICTORY!
instrumentum
This series is dedicated to my brother Malik, the Hellhound Primarch
Underdog Drafts
The Allied evacuation of Dunkirk during WWII, King Leonidas’ Spartans at the Hot Gates, and the army of Rohan at the Battle of Helm’s Deep… these moments in history are a lazy Sunday afternoon compared to the odds faced in Underdog tournaments. In a Best Ball Mania IV contest that features 677,376 entrants on the battlefield, the only chance for survival is the most rigorous commitment to a tempered strategy.
In the Mouth of Madness
Jon Snowing It
The Allied evacuation of Dunkirk during WWII, King Leonidas’ Spartans at the Hot Gates, and the army of Rohan at the Battle of Helm’s Deep… these moments in history are a lazy Sunday afternoon compared to the odds faced in Underdog tournaments. In a Best Ball Mania IV contest that features 677,376 entrants on the battlefield, the only chance for survival is the most rigorous commitment to a tempered strategy. Do not be tempted to invest tens of thousands of dollars into building a data center outfitted with complex algorithms that draft for you - Mad Max didn’t use AI when he entered the Thunderdome and neither should you. Instead, we will focus on wielding a process trained by historical data, risk assessment, and the most powerful tools in the space. This path does not guarantee all of your teams will survive the first onslaught, nor your most promising 18th-round pick will save you in the eleventh hour. But rest assured there’s no greater confidence than harnessing a strategy that can adapt to any circumstance that was built with your own sweat and efforts. Let’s get into it.
WoRP Your Mind
We will begin by freeing your mind of everything you thought you knew about Underdog drafts. ADP would have us believe that WR and the elite QB have overtaken RB as the focal position of the format. At the writing of this article, 19 of the top 36 players are WRs, along with 4 QBs and 2 TEs, which leaves 11 RBs remaining in the top three rounds of ADP. But much like parents, ADP is something we ought to respect but not always something we need to follow. And in a tournament that rewards the most unique combination of players, it will actually be to your benefit to stand out from the crowd. But in order to separate ourselves to our benefit, we have to determine what the most valuable positions and players are given the scoring and roster format on Underdog. The single best method available to us in the space for determining production value is WoRP.
I had the privilege of interviewing one of the foremost authorities in the field of WoRP, Dr. Koopa, Director of the Mind Flayer Project at the Labs of South Harmon Institute of Technology. In his research, he explains:
“WoRP, or Wins over Replacement Player, is a singular metric you can use to compare the value of players in your fantasy league, even across positions. Rather than using PPG, which can be biased towards one position (QBs) or against another (TEs), WoRP normalizes against the fantasy points of the replacement player, aka the best player at that position who didn't make your lineup. This allows you to compare one player to another, even if they score drastically different numbers of points. Finally, the values between positions can change from league to league, and the tool adjusts to your specific league settings to show you where an edge exists that wouldn't exist in a more "standard" league. With these calculations, we thought we might start a chain reaction that would destroy the entire fantasy world...I believe we did.”
Koopa may or may not have said that last part, but what is undeniable and most compelling is that WoRP “allows you to compare one player to another, even if they score drastically different numbers of points.” So what does 2022’s WoRP reveal to us about Underdog?
I hope everyone has been drafting RBs because they are far from being dead. Underdog is a half-point per reception scored format, which gives RBs more than a fighter’s chance to be on equal footing with their WRs counterparts. Three of the top four players last year were RBs, but Christian McCaffrey is the only RB who is being drafted consistently in the top six of Underdog drafts. Workhorse and dual-threat RBs are going to win contestants a lot of money this year.
When sorted by WoRP per game, there are only 13 WRs that make it into the top 36 (compared to the 19 WRs found in ADP), only 1 TE (2 TEs in ADP), and a whopping 18 RBs (only 11 RBs in top 36 of ADP)! It would appear that QB is the only position that is being drafted appropriately on Underdog and yet they are still being taken at value compared to their WoRP.
When armed with this knowledge, participants can effectively navigate Underdog drafts by avoiding the landmines who are being drafted too far ahead of what they can truly offer and letting the real difference-makers fall to them (often past their true ADP in terms of WoRP).
The Last of Us Strategy
Having played Underdog since their first year, there are a number of key lessons I have learned over the last three seasons. The following section comprises the very pillars of my strategy. To your benefit, I will hold these core principles of mine up to the magnificent light of WoRP, as well as in the brilliance of Hayden Wink’s research at Underdog Network. We will begin with Roster Construction, which is very similar to Taco Bell in that the possible combinations are endless despite there only being 4 ingredients.
2-3 QBs (DON'T get 2x top 5) - Having 2 top 5 QBs sounds good in theory, but we have to remember that this is a 1QB format, not SuperFlex. Why draft a 2nd elite QB at an elite cost (top 3-4 rds) that is going to score nearly the same amount of points as your other elite QB? Hayden Winks would further add “It looks like when we hit on a QB, it's best to wait until this Round 9-12 range.1” In terms of WoRP, the top 4 QBs were all nearly identical in the value they offered. I am betting on the elite 4 becoming an elite 7-8, with the likes of Lamar Jackson, Trevor Lawrence, Justin Herbert, or Justin Fields rounding out the steep slope we saw from last year.
Drafting 3 QBs is a strategy I am willing to employ in about a third of my drafts for two simple reasons: 1) I can capture 1-2 more high-WoRP skill players with the picks I would have otherwise spent on elite QBs if I’m aiming for 2nd/3rd tier QBs. 2) There are a number of QBs that have top-10 potential that are being drafted far later. But despite these assumptions, it’s hard to ignore how much better the elite QBs were compared to the rest of the field. The ideal QB strategy is perhaps drafting a top 8 QB and a 2nd QB that offers elite potential at a later ADP. Hayden Winks’ research affirms the 2 QB over the 3 QB strategy when he writes “2022: Once again, QB3 teams closed the gap on QB2 teams in Round 12, but never eclipsed them at any point on average.2”
3 TEs - An epidemic more alarming than the effects of Brainworm that continues to pervade the entire fantasy football space is the mishandling of the Tight End position. But thanks to recent breakthroughs in research, we have discovered a vaccine to cure our rosters of Persistent Tight End Arousal Syndrome (PTEAS). The best way to treat tight ends in Underdogs drafts is to draft three of them and punt the position entirely unless you have the fortune of drafting Travis Kelce. He is the one and only TE who consistently challenges the top RBs and WRs in fantasy that is worth his 1st round value.
After Kelce the position plummets to an abysmal plane of existence that never once comes close to WRs or RBs. Given how flat the position is after TE 6 (Schultz = 0.032 WoRP/G) until TE 31 (Otton = 0.011 WoRP/G), there isn’t any upside to drafting a top 10-12 ADP tight end in the first 11 rounds of your Underdog drafts. It’s essential to draft 3 TEs given the absurd volatility of the position - Kelce registered a combined 20 Spike and Above Average weeks last season, while TEs 2-32 had an average 4.9 combined Spike and Above Average weeks in 2022. Woof.
5-6 RBs (5 RBs if you get 3 QBs) & 7-8 WRs (7 WRs if get 6 RBs or 3 QBs) - Knowing that 5-6 spots on your 17-player roster have already been spoken for by the QBs and TEs, this leaves 11-12 roster spots that can be devoted to the RB and WR position. There are a number of factors that play into drafting slightly more WRs than RBs, but the most significant is the starting lineups on Underdog (2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 Flex) and the edge in WoRP that WR commands after a certain point in the draft. Before every draft, I take a “snapshot” of how the WoRP/G distributes between the various positions every 6 spots in the top WoRP players.
As you can see in the above Underdog snapshot, RB and WR trade superiority throughout the top 42 of their respective positions, with perhaps a slight advantage to RB. That edge quickly gives way to the WRs after the 42nd RB and is never regained. Bearing this dropoff at RB in mind, be diligent in drafting at least 3, but ideally 4, of these top 40ish RBs, and saving room for 1-2 upside dart throws for later in your drafts.
Furthermore, I would not recommend drafting more than two rookie WRs per roster given how long it typically takes for rookies to acclimate to the NFL. Lastly, I would not advocate for drafting too many Boom WRs towards the end of the draft whose game is entirely predicated on the big-play over the safe-floor veterans that are routinely available.
There Can Only Be One!
Much more can be said about what it takes to be the last one standing, but outside of what I’ve already shared from my personal findings, I would highly recommend checking out the following articles from Hayden Winks to help prepare for Underdog drafts. I’ll end it with one final piece of advice: don’t draft timid - It’s better to burn out than to fade away!
1 - Winks, Hayden. “When To Draft QBs In Best Ball (Updated).” Jun 6th, 2023. https://underdognetwork.com/football/news/when-to-draft-qbs-in-best-ball-updated
2 - Winks, Hayden. “When To Draft QBs In Best Ball (Updated).” Jun 6th, 2023. https://underdognetwork.com/football/news/when-to-draft-qbs-in-best-ball-updated
Winks, Hayden. “Strategy Data For Underdog Fantasy's Weekly Winners.” Aug 7th 2023. https://underdognetwork.com/football/best-ball-research/strategy-data-for-underdog-fantasys-weekly-winners
Winks, Hayden. “How To Draft Zero RB Properly: "Even More Radicalized Zero RB." Apr 24th, 2022. https://underdognetwork.com/football/best-ball-research/how-to-draft-zero-rb-properly-even-more-radicalized-zero-rb
Winks, Hayden. “Draft More Best Ball Teams With Only 6-8 WRs.” Jun 27th, 2022. https://underdognetwork.com/football/best-ball-research/draft-more-best-ball-teams-with-only-6-8-wrs
Winks, Hayden. “When To Draft WRs In Best Ball (Updated).” May 16th, 2023. https://underdognetwork.com/football/best-ball-research/when-to-draft-wrs-in-best-ball-updated
Winks, Hayden. “When To Draft RBs In Best Ball (Updated).” May 15th, 2023. https://underdognetwork.com/football/best-ball-research/when-to-draft-rbs-in-best-ball-updated
Winks, Hayden. “When To Draft QBs In Best Ball (Updated).” Jun 6th, 2023. https://underdognetwork.com/football/news/when-to-draft-qbs-in-best-ball-updated
This article has been perfected by Dr. B Harris
Underdog Drafts
It’s after midnight on a warm August night when you put on your sleep cap and you’re ready to start counting sheep. But before it fades to black your peace is spoiled by a rude messenger. It’s an urgent push notification from Underdog saying “You’re on the clock!.” You have 10 hours to make your selection, but since you want to sleep-in until noon it’s now or never. Justin Fields has fallen five spots past his ADP and you already have DJ Moore rostered at WR. Easy Peasy Lemon Squeezy.
Preparing for Chaos
Imma Gonna Win!
It’s after midnight on a warm August night when you put on your sleep cap and you’re ready to start counting sheep. But before it fades to black your peace is spoiled by a rude messenger. It’s an urgent push notification from Underdog saying “You’re on the clock!.” You have 10 hours to make your selection, but since you want to sleep-in until noon it’s now or never. Justin Fields has fallen five spots past his ADP and you already have DJ Moore rostered at WR. Easy Peasy Lemon Squeezy. You click the paper-airplane icon “Draft” with a grin thinking about what you want to buy first with the $3 million prize. It isn’t long until that same messenger returns, but this time it’s AJ Dillon who now needs to be saved. Without hesitation you smash the green icon and you close your eyes wondering how you could be so lucky. It’s not until the next morning upon opening your Underdog app and wanting to relive the previous evening’s triumphs that you realize something is off. The squad you drafted Justin Fields with already had Lamar Jackson, which wouldn’t be so bad if they didn’t have the same late bye week. Damn. You quickly click through every active draft searching for your AJ Dillon team. Your worst fears are realized when you come to find Aaron Jones on your roster smiling down at his teammate a few spots below. Double Damn. It helps to be organized when competing in a tournament with 677,376 entries for $15 million in prize money. This two-part series of articles is dedicated to the groundwork and strategy behind Underdog drafts. Much of the process covered in this series can be directly applied to redraft leagues as well.
Spread Them Sheets
Like everything else in fantasy, there is an excess of factors to be cognizant of when attacking your Underdog drafts. In order to orchestrate all of these data points into a harmonious symphony, I find spreadsheets to being the most effective method of organization. Here’s how to begin building out your spreadsheet.
Sheet 1 - The Cornerstone: Sheet 1 is the basis for all of the other sheets in your document. It is comprised of both a ‘Rankings’ section and a ‘Notes’ section. I divide the Rankings section with Overall, Round, Player, Position, Bye, and Personal Rank (optional) columns as pictured below.
The Rankings: The basis for all my rankings (dynasty, redraft, Underdog) is rooted in ADP. Managers that operate too far ahead or behind ADP take on far too much risk in outsmarting others. With millions of dollars on the line and thousands of contestants, it’s not a stretch to say that Underdog has the sharpest season-long ADP in the entire fantasy space. Overspending and negating any possible ADP edges that are pivotal in such a small-margin contest is folly. So with that said, visit https://underdogfantasy.com/lobby , go to the ‘Rankings’ tab, and press the ‘CSV download/upload’ button to receive the latest Underdog ADP. Once you have the ADP copied over to your spreadsheet, the real fun can begin!
Color Coding: In an 18 round draft that has over 200 players its pivotal to find what you need as easily as possible. At minimum I recommend color coding the Position column (I use the same color-scheme Underdog uses) and highlighting in red any player on a week 13/14 bye. Having too many players on a bye right before the playoffs can absolutely crush you, especially if you lose any players to injury throughout the course of the season that you banked on performing during these byes.
Notes Section: If you were speculating what all the different numbers and colors represented in the Rankings section, wonder no further. My Notes section comprises four different categories. Is any of this necessary? No, but I hate sleep and love needlessly grinding any possible edge I have in winning, so all of this is purely optional.
WoRP Performance - One of the main things I look at when organzing my rankings is how well a player performed in terms of WoRP (Wins Above Replacement Player). We will dive deeper into exactly what WoRP is, but in general WoRP shows us how many more wins a player earned you in comparison to any other player. I assign a score and color to each player depending upon their previous year’s WoRP.
Playoff Projection - Having players with the projected best matchups during the most critical stage of the tournament is a massive advantage. There isn’t much of a science to how I assign these scores to players - I simply assign a low, middle, or high score to that player’s week depending upon if the pass/rush defense they are playing was ranked in the bottom, middle, or top third of the league. Since there can be fluctuation in how defenses perform year to year, I only use this as a tiebreaker when I am on the clock and having a hard time deciding what player to draft.
Spike and Above Average Weeks - The beauty of playing in a BestBall format is capturing the peak performances players are capable of. One of my favorite ways to gauge how dominant a player was in a best ball format is to look at the number of Spike weeks (player was top 5 in points scored at their position for that week) and Above Average weeks (top 16 QB/RB, top 24 WR, top 8 TE) a player had last year. Be judicious when it comes to your player selection - draft a healthy mixture of players that can offer peak performance and/or consistency. You can easily find this data by joining South Harmon “S.H.I.T. Show” on Patreon at https://www.patreon.com/SouthHarmon.
Roster Construction - We have three years worth of data from the Best Ball Mania Tournament in which we can glean some very interesting notes on the best and worst ways to compete on Underdog. When pouring through the data it becomes apparent that there are not only certain Roster Constructions (the number of players to draft at each position) that perform better but also the ideal ranges to target different positions throughout the draft. This Roster Construction section is a snapshot of the most ideal roster, based upon both WoRP data and the amazing analysis that Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) does over at the Underdog Network. We will be taking a deeper dive into the analysis behind Roster Construction in part two of this Underdog series, which focuses on strategy.
Sheets 2-13 - 1.01-1.12: An eternity later after you have finished scoring and color-coding each player (if you so choose), it’s now time to replicate this Cornerstone sheet into 12 more sheets. Drafting from the 1.01 position is massively different from the 1.12 slot, especially when observing ADP. If most users are drafting in respect of ADP, then it’s not too difficult to map out the players that will likely be available at each of your selections. Having each of these dedicated draft position sheets can make all the difference, especially when the draft position is an unknown until after you join the lobby.
An additional advantage to having dedicated sheets for each draft slot is potential stacking! Stacking is a strategy in which managers draft pairs of teammates - typically consisting of QB’s & their top receiving option(s). Stacking is a major emphasis in my Underdog drafts and is often in the same breath as prime playoff matchups as the greatest edge in best ball.
I begin this process first considering which teams I would be willing to draft their respective QB (27 QB’s for me in 2023). The next step is arranging in order of ADP the QB’s fellow teammates. I then rank each stack based upon the combined scores of the QB with their top stack option; with special emphasis on the QB and the offense they operate in. This transitions into identifying which stacks are the most attainable given the first player you have to draft at ADP. There are certain stacks that are pretty much impossible to achieve without seriously reaching ahead (such as Diggs & Allen) or getting extremely lucky with a top player falling to you past ADP. However, there are plenty of stacks (such as the Kelce & Mahomes) that are definitely achievable within a certain range of draft slots.
Sheet 14 - Exposure: The following two sheets on Exposure & Active Drafts are optional given that the information can be found through the Underdog platform, but if you live on the sheet streets like I do then perhaps you’ll find this arrangement preferable as well.
First looking at Exposure, this tells you the percentage of shares you have drafted of a particular player across all of your drafts. Your exposure is strategic for the simple reason you don’t want most of your tournament hopes sinking because you couldn’t stop drafting a player and they suffer a season-ending injury. I personally don’t recommend any exposure on a player exceeding 30-35%.
Sheet 15 - Active Drafts: The final sheet displays all the rosters I am in the middle of drafting. This sheet is only worthwhile if you participate in the Slow-Draft (8 hr timer) lobbies, which is exclusively what I participate in. With the extended selection time, one can methodically map out their strategy by thinking several moves ahead and focus on a portfolio approach across all of their active drafts. If you wait till the end of the off-season, very often you can take advantage of any big news that affects ADP live during your slow-draft as an additional perk as well.
In my Active Drafts section, I track the number of Spike/Above Avg players I’ve drafted, the picks themselves, and I make heavy use of my notes section with players I want to draft with upcoming selections. The final element I focus on is my draft strategy, but we’ll save that for next time!