T-Rock 10/31/24 T-Rock 10/31/24

WK 8 - Top 2024 Quarterbacks

The Quarterback position remains the Agency’s highest priority in SF leagues. Make no mistake, the war will be won or lost depending on this position in the coming weeks. Carefully review the following Field Generals vetted by our QB Selection process.

Wicked QuarterBacks

Attention, K-Mart shoppers. Well, I’m back. I feel real good about myself. You know what I mean? So, without further delay...

Beetlejuice - Beetlejuice

It’s Showtime!

Deep beneath the earth, dozens of Bath & Body Works candles flickered in the darkness of Beetlemeat’s den. Sinking deeper into his La-Z-Boy while humming “Running Up That Hill” to himself, Beetlemeat opened the Sleeper app to set his lineup.

“Damn injuries. Up thirteen percent, huh?” Beetlemeat mumbled to himself. “Well, I better find a replacement. Let's see. Trade Block. Ooh-la-la. What do we got here? Show Me Dem TDs, huh? Looks desperate and dumb,” he chuckled to himself.

Show Me Dem TDs was fifth in scoring, but was 8th in the league standings.

“Fucking ARich!” Dem TDs shouted. “How can you be tired?! You can’t last more than two games before your dumbass gets hurt or benched! Freaking Flacco and Jameis have already been picked up. All that’s left is Bryce Young?! Fuck! What am I going to do at QB? Where’s my “Peaceful Meditation” playlist?!?” she said furiously scrolling through Spotify.

“The following ad has been brought to you by: Rooster’s Wings - A Fun, Casual Joint,” the advertisement began.

“Oh God, I would kill for some fried pickles right now,” Dem TDs said to herself.

“Is your team trapped in roster hell? Is your league as lively as a cemetery?” Does your trade inbox make you want to walk into traffic? Are you tired of getting fucked six-ways on Sundays with injuries?” exclaimed the ad narrator. Dem TDs looked at her phone in bewilderment. “Well, put down the bleach and pick up the phone, 'cause I'm dynasty's leading roster consultant. Yes, sirree. Konami QBs, Dual-threat RBs, Alpha WRs, and that’s it, folks. You name it, I got it! No need to talk to your inbred leaguemates who are constantly trying to swindle you. I got all the players you want and I’m slashing prices!” Beetlemeat howled with the snap of his whip. “Exclusive Rookies (‘Don’t worry about production’ the narrator whispered)! Guaranteed Vets (‘Don’t worry about age’)! Wow! You can't beat that, can you? So come on down and see me. And bring your girlfriend, or bring your wife, it doesn’t matter. Don’t delay, call me now! And remember: I don’t win until you start winning!”

Show Me Dem TD’s thumb trembled over the advertisement. I’m tired of losing. It’s now or never. Pressing firmly down on her phone, the lights around Dem TDs began to blur and the room spun rapidly as she was teleported to a dimly-lit room.

QB Bona Fides

Baseline

PPG (6-pt Passing TDs): Courtesy of Sleeper

1. Lamar Jackson - 29.8 PPG

2. Baker Mayfield - 29.4 PPG

3. Jordan Love - 24.6 PPG

4. Jalen Hurts - 23.9 PPG

5. Josh Allen - 23.5 PPG

6. Joe Burrow - 22.7 PPG

Strong Indicators

QBR: Courtesy of ESPN

1. Joe Burrow - 75.4

2. Lamar Jackson - 74.9

3. Kyler Murray - 74.4

4. Josh Allen - 73.7

5. Jayden Daniels - 72.7

6. Jalen Hurts - 69.3

Rushing TDs: Courtesy of PFF

1. Jalen Hurts - 7 TDs

2. Justin Fields - 5 TDs

3. Jayden Daniels - 4 TDs

3. Bo Nix - 4 TDs

5. Josh Allen - 3 TDs

5. Brock Purdy - 3 TDs

Passing Grade: Courtesy of PFF

1. Joe Burrow - 88.3

2. Lamar Jackson - 87.8

2. Derek Carr - 87.8

4. Jayden Daniels - 81.7

5. Justin Herbert - 78.8

6. Kyler Murray - 78.6

Neutral Pass Rate: Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog

1. Joe Burrow - 0.64

2. Kirk Coursins - 0.6

3. Derek Carr - 0.59

4. Justin Herbert - 0.58

4. Geno Smith - 0.58

4. Aaron Rodgers - 0.58

ADOT: Courtesy of PFF

1. Anthony Richardson - 13.3 yds

2. Brock Purdy - 10 yds

3. Trevor Lawrence - 9.7 yds

3. Sam Darnold - 9.7 yds

5. Derek Carr - 9.4 yds

5. Jordan Love - 9.4 yds

Fair Indicators

Adjusted Yards Gained Per Pass Attempt: Courtesy of Pro Football Reference

1. Lamar Jackson - 9.95 yds

2. Jared Goff - 9.39 yds

3. Josh Allen - 8.97 yds

4. Sam Darnold - 8.81 yds

5. Jayden Daniels - 8.67 yds

6. Brock Purdy - 8.21 yds

Passer Rating: Courtesy of ESPN

1. Lamar Jackson - 115.4

2. Jared Goff - 115.3

3. Russell Wilson - 111.9

4. Josh Allen - 107.6

5. Sam Darnold - 107.2

6. Joe Burrow - 106.5

Big Time Throw Rate: Courtesy of PFF

1. Josh Allen - 7.5%

2. Anthony Richardson - 7.2%

3. Justin Herbert - 6.3%

4. Tua Tagovailo - 5.8%

5. Sam Darnold - 5.7%

5. Kyler Murray - 5.7%

Passing Attempts Per Game: Courtesy of PlayerProfiler

1. Geno Smith - 38.5

2. Dak Prescott - 37.4

3. Baker Mayfield - 35.5

3. Aaron Rodgers - 35.5

5. Daniel Jones - 34.8

6. Kirk Cousins - 33.9

Rushing Yards Per Game: Courtesy of PlayerProfiler

1. Lamar Jackson - 62.6 yds

2. Jayden Daniels - 53 yds

3. Kyler Murray - 43 yds

4. Anthony Richardson - 40.3 yds

5. Justin Fields - 38.5 yds

6. Jalen Hurts - 36.4 yds

Turnover Worthy Play Rate (Lowest): Courtesy of PFF

1. Joe Burrow - 1.3%

2. Lamar Jackson - 1.4%

3. Aaron Rodgers - 1.5%

4. Jayden Daniels - 1.8%

5. Bo Nix - 1.9%

6. Geno Smith - 2.1%

Faint Indicator

Adjusted Completion Percentage: Courtesy of PFF

1. Patrick Mahomes - 80.2%

2. Jayden Daniels - 79.4%

3. Joe Burrow - 79.3%

4. Jalen Hurts - 79.2%

5. Derek Carr - 79%

6. Justin Fields - 78.8%

6. Baker Mayfield - 78.8%

6. Jared Goff - 78.8%

Results

Overall:

1. Lamar Jackson

2. Joe Burrow

3. Jayden Daniels

4. Brock Purdy

5. Jalen Hurts

6. Josh Allen

The Ghost With The Most

Dem TDs was immediately greeted with the strong scent of Sweater Weather, working overtime to overpower the thin veil of armpit that lingered in the air. She approached the kitchenette slowly and found a handwritten note that read, “Make yourself at home and pour yourself a glass of wine. Dinner will be ready soon. I hope you like Italian.” She pulled the box of Franzia wine to the edge of the counter and pressed the spout down into her Solo cup. Walking past the oven, she saw the cardboard and wrapper of a 4 Meat TombStone pizza. What did I get myself into?

Emerging from the other room, Beetlemeat was dripping wet, presumably from taking a shower, but was somehow still stinky. He had the gut of a man who was practiced in the dark arts of boozery and BBQ. Seeing her, he grinned ear to ear, showing all of his discolored teeth.

“What’s cookin’, good lookin’?!” Beetlemeat said excitedly. “It’s not often I get company in the Meat Mansion. This calls for a special occasion!” Snapping his fingers, flames erupted from a newly manifested fireplace. Beetlemeat was now wearing a burgundy smoking jacket, embroidered with the initial’s “BM.”

“Here have a seat,” he said motioning to the couch. Dem TDs nodded and nervously smiled but then paused when she saw the men’s magazines scattered on the ground. “Don’t mind the mess, the maid is out,” Beetlemeat laughed to himself. “These are just draft guides for research,” he said shoving the pornos underneath the couch.

“Now, let me guess, you want a massive, blockbuster deal to put your team over the top. Let me ask you somethin’. How attached to your first-round pick are ya? Do I have a shot at it at all?” Beetlemeat inquired.

“Well, I’m not sure about a big deal or losing my 1st,” Dem TDs responded. “I mainly want a QB2 to help make a push for the play-”

“I GOT JUST THE GUY FOR YA!!!” Beetlemeat blurted. “The RED RIFLE! Andy Dalton!”

“Is he even starting?” she asked.

“YEAH! Probably! Eventually….maybe….” Beetlemeat said unconvincingly. “How about Aaron Rodgers?! He’s got the old band back with his guys Adams and Lazard!”

“Eh, I don’t know. I feel like his stock is plummeting.”

“Oh, I didn’t realize I was talking with the Wolf of Wall Street here! How did your Rice and Jamo trades work out for ya?!” Beetlemeat snapped.

Dem TDs was speechless as she stared at Beetlemeat. Rising from the couch, Beetlemeat grabbed her arm.

“I’m sorry, I’m sorry, don’t go!” he pleaded with her. “Look, I get it. You updated all of your player’s nicknames with trade prices that the other managers promptly ridiculed. In terms of who to start and who to sit, well, it doesn't matter cause all your best players will be dead and starting in your IR slots anyway. It’s BRUTAL!”

“So what should I do then?” she said defeated.

“Here’s the thing, I want to help, but your team sucks bad, and that’s okay because if you follow everything I say then you’ll be fine!” Beetlemeat said reassuringly. Dem TDs’ expression became cold and rigid.

“Handsome T-Rock sent me an offer with Baker Mayfield. Doesn’t Baker have a high WoRP?” she inquired.

“Baker Mayfield?! Why in the world would you want him? His best receiver is Cade Otton. Don’t worry about WoRP, analytics, or any other type of numbo-jumbo that comes out of T-Rock’s mouth.” he said condescendingly. “My best piece of advice for ya: join my Patreon. That way, you’ll have access to my rankings and to the Discord! Full of high-powered mutants and degenerates like yourself. You’ll love them!” Beetlemeat smiled, his eyes closed.

Show Me Dem TDs was already halfway out the door when Beetlemeat opened his eyes.

“Hey! Come on! You’ve gotta work with me here. I’m just tryna cut a deal. What do you want me to do? The least you can do is subscribe to my YouTube channel!” he cried out.

“I’m taking the Baker deal,” she said spitefully.

“Go ahead, trade with T-Rock! I don’t care! I got garlic bread in the microwave and a Tinder date on the way!”

“Goodbye Loser!” she said with disgust.

“You don’t deserve Andy Dalton!” he shouted as the door closed.

Works Cited

PFF
PlayerProfiler
ESPN
Pro Football Reference

NFL Week 8 Recap - Fantasy Usage Model by Hayden Winks

https://underdognetwork.com/football/analysis/nfl-week-8-recap-fantasy-usage-model-2024

Image created by DK

Matty Kiwoom 10/30/24 Matty Kiwoom 10/30/24

FANTASY FOOTBALL TRADE ADVICE: WEEK 9 BUY & SELL

Gang…we are in the spookiest time of the season. Of course the world is celebrating All Hallow’s Eve but we are also entering the trade season. We all know that things get spooky and sometimes downright scary when the football world is making moves. NFL clubs are making trades to bolster their rosters for the playoff run. Fantasy managers know whether they should be buying players or selling. Which leads to teams wheeling and dealing to set their teams up for what lies ahead. Hear me, fantasy managers and NFL franchises…keep reading to learn about a receiver to buy and one to sell ahead of the calendar turning to November.

Buy

Terry McLaurin

The football universe is finally getting a chance to see what Terry McLaurin can do with a REAL quarterback. Scary Terry has racked up four 1,000 yard seasons in a row and is already more than halfway to five in a row. Heading into Week 9 he has 579 receiving yards which is the fourth most in the league. The trade markets haven’t realized how good McLaurin has been. Maybe because he’s always been good, not great. This year he’s been great. He is currently a top 30 overall WoRP player with a clear path to to 20. His analytical profile also supports the fantasy production we’ve seen. McLaurin’s aDOT, Air Yard Share, and deep targets reflect a player who is one of the most dangerous downfield threats. His yards per route run and yards per team pass attempt numbers are on par with a fantasy WR 1. Oh and his quarterback is Jayden Daniels who is on his way to the 2025 OROY award. Adding McLaurin will have a massive impact on winning and yet the sellers who have him are not looking for as much as they should be.

Who to trade away

For the fantasy managers that lost Brandon Aiyuk, Chris Godwin or Stefon Diggs should IMMEDIATELY flip the IR candidates for McLaurin. Market indicators like The Lab are suggesting that is exactly the price that Mac Daddy is going for. That has to be plan A for those who have those players to move but for those who do not and still want to acquire McLaurin. I’m here to say…it is okay to move your contender first for the Commies’ WR. For those buys who are flush with backs or folks who are trading in a seasonal league moving your RB 3 or even RB 2 (as long as your RB 3 is garbage) to add this kind of fire power is a clear dub. Eventually the fantasy football markets will realize how good Terry McLaurin is be sure to get him now while he’s a really high value.

Sell

Darnell Mooney

Darnell Mooney has been good but his production has come in waves. Four games of near 15 fantasy point production and four games under ten points. For the lineup leaguers both dynasty and seasonal, this kind of boom and doom kind of scoring can lead to as many loses as it does to wins. It’s easy to love the over 14 points per game production but consistency has a value in and of itself that I’d rather game plan around. Mooney is outside the top 50 in adjusted WoRP because some of those spike weeks came on many teams’ benches. On top of the volatility, Mooney hasn’t posted good separation metrics and his Y/RR is a bit discouraging. Timing is everything when adding value via trades and now is a peak for Mooney. Sell now before we get the next valley.

Who to trade for

Despite being a top 15 wideout, Mooney isn’t getting that kind of return based on what indicators say. That’s okay because his 20 point Week 8 and his current standing in fantasy will allow for a plus ROI for the Falcons’ pass catcher. Especially for most teams where he is the WR 4 or 5, he’s an asset to use to bring in a player to fill another spot. Kareem Hunt, Tank Bigsby, Travis Etienne, Chase Brown, Javonte Williams are all running backs that have been moved for Darnell Mooney. You leave him on your roster in best ball formats but in lineup leagues…SELL Mr. MOONEY!

The fantasy world is through Week 8 and the season is getting old. Now is the time to make moves. Now is the time to swing for the fences. Now is the time to set the fantasy team up to win in 2024 or gear up for a future championship run. Stay trading my friends…

T-Rock 10/29/24 T-Rock 10/29/24

Week 9 Waiver Targets

The South Harmon Agency has more high-tier operatives gathering intel than ever before. Be sure to keep your channel open and collect data from the various sources as it comes in. In terms of FAAB bidding, review your league’s previous waiver behavior to navigate the wire best. The waiver wire will become more bare as the season continues, especially in best ball formats.

Waiver Targets

ReDraft (most of these players will be rostered in Dynasty leagues)

Bo Nix - 35% rostership, 20-25% FAAB (Bo continued the trend of players having their best games versus Carolina with 284 passing yards and 4 total TDs (start all of your Saints players in week 9). The 12th overall pick in the NFL Draft has put together three top-10 QB finishes in the past month and has had 6/8 weeks in the top 16. Lacking playmaking receivers, Bo has utilized his legs to average 32 yards rushing per game, and has scored 4 TDs on the ground.)
Joe Flacco - 6% rostership, 18-20% FAAB (Anthony Richardson has been benched. For how long? Who’s to say? But what is for sure is that Flacco has been the far better QB. In 3 games, Cool Joe has passed for 716 yds, 7 TDs, and only 1 INT. In 5.5 games, ARich has passed for 958 yds, 4 TDs, and 7 INTs (while also rushing for 242 yds, 1 TD). This provides an immediate boost to all playmakers for the Colts offense. We anticipate Indianapolis will retain Flacco as the starter until the team has been eliminated from playoff contention.)
Cedric Tillman - 24% rostership, spend 15-18% FAAB (Matt Harmon of Reception Perception posted in his Discord that Tillman was on the rise in his rankings a few days ago. Then Tillman explodes for a career game versus their division rival. An intriguing prospect out of Tennessee, Tillman is above average in many respects but offers insane athleticism with a 9.56 RAS score. With a healthier offensive line and Jameis Winston, the Browns look far more competent, and dare we say, professional at times. Acquire Tillman, who looks to be a major beneficiary as their #1 X-receiver moving forward.)
Adam Thielen - 21% rostership, spend 15-18% FAAB (Diontae Johnson has been traded to the Ravens, paving the way for Adam Thielen to be #1 WR for the Panthers after returning from IR. It will be tricky for the 34-year-old WR to stay healthy while recovering from a hamstring injury, but the productive vet has more upside than the typical FLEX option.)
Demarcus Robinson - 15% rostership, spend 10-12% FAAB (Demarcus Robinson can not bear the burden of being a WR1, but with Kupp & Puka back in the fold, Robinson can be the chip-winning fantasy god he was last year as the WR3. The Rams are too well-coached and talented to roll over for the rest of the season. Acquire all the value starters you can from this elite offense.)
Jalen Coker - 0% rostership, spend 5-8% FAAB (Written about in week 5 as a dynasty waiver add, Coker has moved into redraft legitimacy after a 4/6 for 78 yd, 1 TD performance versus Denver. Carolina is a dumpster fire, flying down a steep hill toward a nitroglycerin plant, but with Coker’s ability to turn limited opportunities into big plays and Diontae Johnson being traded, Jalen should see a worthwhile uptick.)
Parker Washington- 0% rostership, spend 5-8% FAAB (Parker Washington will be the #1 add for most leagues this week given the injuries to all 3 starting WRs for Jacksonville. However, expectations should be tempered considering that Parker hasn’t eclipsed a 34% snap share despite how poor the Jaguars have been at WR outside of BTJ. The 6th-round 2023 pick was not a highly-ranked prospect for our process but is still worth a waiver bid considering his opportunity.
Elijah Moore - 8% rostership, 3-5% FAAB (Tillman will be the hot commodity after their win over Baltimore, but he wasn’t the only Browns receiver who had their best game of the year. Moore led Cleveland in targets with 12, catching 8 for 81 yards. Cleveland and Carolina receivers may not be the fireworks waiver-adds we all hope for, but it's the best we can hope for at this point in the season.)

Dynasty

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine - 11% rostership, 8-10% FAAB in Best Ball (Westbrook-Ikhine has scored a TD for three straight weeks, but most encouraging was the 92% snap share he earned in their latest contest. With Hopkins in Kansas City and Burks on IR, the WR2 position is wide-open with little production coming from Tyler Boyd.)
Adam Trautman- 6% rostership, 5-8% FAAB in Best Ball (Trautman was the primary TE for the Broncos last season, but has been irrelevant for Denver until this past week. With Greg Dulcich falling out of favor with Coach Payton (likely due to poor blocking) and Lucas Krull injuring his shoulder, Trautman took advantage with 4/4 for 85 yards, 1 TD on an 85% snap share. With the team hitting its stride, look for the Head Coach to keep Trautman as the TE1 while Krull is out.)

The Dossier

Image created by DK

Check out the latest from South Harmon

Videos: https://www.youtube.com/@SouthHarmonFF/videos

Podcasts: https://open.spotify.com/show/4DRA34XipOMfw4vNi1VITC

T-Rock 10/24/24 T-Rock 10/24/24

WK 7 - TE Buys Of 2024

Jack parked his modest car next to the oversized RV in the school lot. Despite having never visited South Harmon before, Jack was overwhelmed with déjà vu as he weaved through the historic corridors and quickly found himself at the Principal’s Office to meet the Directors of South Harmon.

Some Tight Ends Shine, Most Don't

Here's to five miserable months on the wagon, and all the irreparable harm it has caused me.

Jack Torrance - The Shining

The Interview

“Hello!? My name is Jack! I’m here for an interview!” Jack said while knocking on the frosted glass door.

“Come on in Jack!” boomed a voice from inside.

Two bearded men stood up to greet Jack as he entered.

“I’m Mike” stood the man from behind the desk, stretching out his hand towards Jack.

“Adam,” said the other man, his handshake firm. Both men towered over Jack.

“So Jack, you came highly recommended to us, and here at South Harmon, we like to hire the best so that we can give them full autonomy to operate,” Mike began. “As a dynasty channel, our season runs all year round, with the busy season running from August through December. During the off-season, we shut down the school.”

“Can I ask why you do that?” Jack interjected. “I feel like some of the best dynasty content comes during the offseason.”

“You’re absolutely right Jack,” Mike replied. “The problem is the enormous costs to keep a fully stocked pantry and fridge to feed our students.”

“Not to mention the liquor cabinet,” Adam added smiling.

“I bet!” Jack laughed.

“Jack,” Mike continued. “Do you have an idea of what this job entails?”

“Only in a very general way,” Jack replied.

“Well, the offseasons can be fantastically cruel in the dynasty space. And the basic idea is to cope with the content schedule that can occur. And this consists mainly of conducting research, engaging with our community on a daily, rotating basis, and providing our users the data they need so that they can gain a foothold in their leagues.

“Well, that sounds fine to me,” Jack said nodding at both men.

“Physically, it's not a very demanding job. The only thing that can get a bit trying up here during the offseason is, uh, a tremendous sense of isolation and competition in the dynasty landscape,” Adam said with compressed lips.

“Well, that just happens to be exactly what I'm looking for. I'm outlining a new writing project and, uh, seven months of peace is just what I want,” Jack responded.

“That's very good Jack, because, uh, for some people, solitude and competition can, of itself become a problem,” said Mike.

“Not for me.”

“How about your wife and son? How do you think they'll take to it?” Adam asked.

“My wife won’t mind since she can work remotely. My son is going to love this place.”

“I don't suppose they told you anything about the tragedy we had here last offseason?” Mike asked. Adam stared stiffly at Jack.

“I don't believe they did,” Jack replied.

“Our last writer and caretaker of the school was a man named T-Rock. And he came up here with his wife and three cats. And he had a good employment record, good references, and he seemed like a completely normal individual. But at some point during the offseason, he must have suffered some kind of a complete mental breakdown. He was fired from his other job as a chef when grilled cheese sandwiches became too complex for him. His wife left him. He put two chicken fingers from George’s Lounge in his mouth and choked to death. Police found him in one of the classrooms with his body covered in $1 bills and Juicy J playing in the background. His cats ate his face off.”

Jack stared at Mike completely still, before saying “Well, that is quite a story. You can rest assured, Mike and Adam, that's not going to happen with me,” Jack said with a wide grin.

Agency Bulletin

During the 2023 Campaign, our Agency identified Evan Engram, Dalton Schultz, and Jonnu Smith as TE Interests in the Week 7 Dossier. At the time of the Agency Bulletin, Engram, Smith, and Schultz were the 6th, 10th, and 11th-ranked PPR TEs respectively. Engram would go on to finish as the TE 2 in 2023, Schultz finished as the TE 10, and Jonnu ended the season as the TE 17.

Learning from last season, analytics can help identify the top-performing players, but where a player finishes is determined by the situation. At week 7, Kelce, Hockenson, Andrews, and Waller were ahead of Engram in scoring. The Chiefs' offense has changed since the latter half of last season, putting special emphasis on their big-slot and RB roles (Rice & Pacheco in 23; buy Nuk & Hunt for 24). Hockenson for the most part maintained but suffered slightly with the loss of Cousins at QB. Andrews and Waller both lost significant time to injury. The situations revolving around these players mixed with the heavy emphasis the Jaguars placed on Engram resulted in a a career year for the TE. Schultz maintained his ranking thanks to his steady involvement in a high-powered offense fueled by the rise of superstar C.J. Stroud. Jonnu Smith was unfortunately dragged down by the dumpster fire situation in Atlanta. This was due to the poor play of QB Desmond Ridder and the poor coaching of Arthur Smith.

With this knowledge in mind, the following assets are in consideration for your Rest-Of-Season Mission. Elite assets will not be included in this report given their formidable prices. The WoRP values are based upon 12 team leagues, start 10, 25-player rosters, PPR, Lineup, and Best Ball. Following the TE Bona Fides intel from the Week 6 Dossier, we will focus on the TE position for this week’s bulletin. Do not engage in a trade until the following intel & parameters have been carefully reviewed:

WoRP - Scoring settings & team needs will dictate which assets to pursue. WoRP is a valuable resource in not only establishing priority targets but also secondary and backup options if necessary. This resource can only be accessed through: https://www.southharmonff.com/worp

Managers to Target - Begin negotiations with managers on the opposite side of the standings. If your roster is rebuilding, prioritize trading with teams in the middle who are desperate to contend & whose picks have higher upside. Managers at the bottom of the standings will become more eager to trade away their players to acquire picks as the season progresses. If your roster is in the middle, negotiate with other middling teams. If you are unable to acquire players to contend, then adapt and pursue the other direction with acquiring picks.

Scouting Weeks 12-17 - Prioritize the players with the best matchups during the most critical stage of the season.

FantasyCalc/KeepTradeCut - Where an asset ranks in the field ultimately determines its value. Dynasty Rankings and The Trade Database (which lists the most recent acquisitions of the asset of interest) are invaluable resources in leveraging suitable deals.

George Kittle is on pace to have the best year of his career. He currently leads all TEs in 16.9 Points Per Game (PPR), 2.02 Yards Per Team Pass Attempt, and 12 Red Zone Targets. These achievements are especially significant given their high correlation with TE1 finishes (66.67% of TEs who are top-12 in these categories finish as top-12 TEs). In terms of WoRP, Kittle is the TE1 in both Lineup and Best Ball formats. In terms of situation, few come close to what Kittle has in San Fran. With Aiyuk out for the season, Deebo in and out of the lineup, and the status of CMC being up in the air, all of Shanahan’s brainpower has been poured into making Kittle the cornerstone of this offense. At 51 trips, the 49ers lead the NFL in red zone trips, which has been a key factor in Kittle’s rise in 2024. The only other TE that outscored Kittle in our research is Brock Bowers, who is the TE1 in Dynasty. At TE7 prices on KTC, Kittle is going to command 1st+ draft pick trade compensation. Outside of acquiring a top 10 WR or RB, few other assets are going to make the impact Kittle will for your roster.

Hunter Henry is enjoying his best season since 2021 and the second-best of his entire career. He isn’t elite in any particular category, but what makes Hunter interesting is that he was the ONLY TE who was above average in every statistic of our process, which placed him as the TE8 in our rankings. He is the TE16 in WoRP for lineup leagues, but surprisingly the TE6 in Best Ball. In terms of situation, the Patriots are one of the worst franchises in 2024, making Henry a risky bet outside of Best Ball formats. His only competition for targets is Pop Douglas. Both players have separated themselves as the two most trusted receivers for their rookie QB, Drake Maye. Could Hunter Henry regress from his current TE6 ranking the same way Jonnu Smith did last season? Yes, it’s possible given the state of the Patriots, but unlikely given the far better QB play we are likely to see from Maye compared to Ridder. At TE23 prices on KTC, and not likely costing more than 1x-2x 3rds, Hunter Henry is a sneaky value in best ball leagues.

Zach Ertz has been a consistent performer throughout his long career, and 2024 has been no different. In his 12th campaign, Ertz is tied for second amongst TEs with 7 Red Zone targets, he is fifth with 19.7% Air Yards, and has the fourth highest ADOT with 8.6 yards. Being a red zone and downfield threat are two of the most important roles a TE can play that is of high value for fantasy managers. As far as the environment, the Commanders have been a pleasant surprise in 2024. Jayden Daniels and Kliff Kingsbury have joined together to create one of the best offenses in the NFL, powered by a dynamic run game with Daniels, Brian Robinson, and Austin Ekeler. Despite being a run-first team, the Washington offense isn’t afraid to utilize the arm talent of Daniels, who routinely makes pin-point throws to Ertz and Terry McLaurin. Ertz won’t wow WoRP truthers as the TE18 for lineup leagues, or as the TE16 in best ball formats, but TEs are not a position of high value worthy of premium capital. That is why as the TE32 on KTC, and costing nothing more than 1-2x 4ths, Zach Ertz is the cheapest TE1 for 2024. The most savvy dynasty players will pay for both Ertz and his heir apparent, Ben Sinnott, who was one of the top prospects in the 2024 Draft.

TE Gambles

The TE position has been down compared to previous years due to the lower volume of passing this season. For managers who are willing to take the gamble, players like T.J. Hockenson, Evan Engram, and Jake Ferguson have high upside and have proven to be league-winners in previous years. Players like Cade Otton and David Njoku are both in unique situations with clear upsides but carry enough red flags that kept them off the Agency Bulletin. The same can be said of Dallas Goedert, Cole Kmet, and Tucker Kraft, who have all played well but operate in crowded offenses. All of these assets ranked in the top half of our process and are worthwhile for you to pursue. One last note - if this is Travis Kelce’s last year, pick up Noah Gray as a 2025 play.

Special Operations

The Agency’s Special Operations department has one mission: to fulfill Fantasy Football contracts. To meet the rigorous mission requirements, the Agency utilizes technology custom-built by our research and development for the solicitor’s request. Our elite-tier operators train for the most difficult missions in the world and have an unparalleled track record. If you wish to contract with our Agency, submit all solicitations via the “Chef T-Rock” thread in the “Big Meat Big Drank” channel of the Sauvage Tier.

Diontae Johnson is a 6th year vet out of Toledo, who was selected as the second pick in the third round of the 2019 NFL Draft by the Pittsburgh Steelers. Johnson does not possess any elite athleticism, with his best trait being his 4.53 speed (57th percentile). His career highlights include being named Second-team All-Pro his rookie year and a Pro Bowl in 2021.

Diontae has made a name for himself throughout his career as an elite separator who has thrived on the outside as an X-receiver. Per Matt Harmon of Reception Perception, “From 2019 to 2022, he took more than 88% of his sampled snaps outside and was on the line for at least 77% in every season. His rate of snaps on the line dropped to 60.6% and his outside snap rate to 76.3% in 2023. That is due to George Pickens emerging as a quality starting X-receiver. This allowed Johnson to move out of some of his old static deployment while playing more flanker and traveling into the slot at a higher rate.” Not much has changed for Diontae in Carolina, who has lined up out wide on 77.7% of his routes and in the slot on 22.3%. In his final season with the Steelers, Diontae cleared the NFL success rate on every pattern of all three field levels, leading to the coveted “All-Green” Reception Perception route chart.

Unfortunately, Diontae Johnson has suffered from some of the worst passing environments in the NFL throughout his career, but especially over the past two seasons with Kenny Pickett and Matt Canada in Pittsburgh, and now Bryce Young and Andy Dalton in Carolina. Through the first 7 weeks of 2024, Diontae Johnson is 30/58 for 357 yds, 3 TDs (2 rushes for 6 yds), adding up to 84.3 PPR points. This is on par with his performance in previous seasons using the same time frame. It would seem that despite coach Canales’ intentions of making Diontae the focal point of the offense, there are far too many issues with the team that overshadow his game plan.

Taking a deeper dive into the WR’s analytics:

PPG (PPR) - 12 pts (32nd amongst NFL WRs)
Target Share - 24.8% (13th)
Air Yards Share - 37.8% (15th)
YAC/R - 3.03 yds (83rd)
Yards/Route Run - 1.73 (54th)
Tgts/Route Run - 0.27 (18th)
ADOT - 9.9 yds (78th)
Contested Catches - 3 (28th-tie)
Rec Yds/Tm Pass Att - 1.59 (40th)
1st Downs/Route Run - 0.097 (33rd)
QB PFF Grades - Dalton: 67.4 (18th), Young: 38.9 (39th)
Hayden Winks’ HPPR Rank (Production) - 29th
Hayden Winks’ EXP Rank (Expectation) - 22nd
Hayden Winks’ WR Team Usage - 26.5 Expected Points (18th)
WoRP Lineup (12TM, SF, Start 10) - 0.655 Total WoRP (20th), 0.094 WoRP/G (35th)
WoRP Best Ball (12TM, SF, Start 10) - 0.583 Total WoRP (19th), 0.083 WoRP/G (36th)

In conclusion, our analysis believes that Diontae as a WR talent merits a ranking much closer to WR20 than the WR43 ranking he currently has on KTC. However, with that said, Diontae Johnson’s proficiency as a route-running expert does not translate into the big play ability necessary for fantasy stardom. Not to mention, the Panthers are the worst team in the NFL, with a multi-year rebuild ahead of them, but not bad enough to secure the #1 overall pick necessary to draft a franchise QB. With a decent offensive line, Carolina’s best path is to build an offense and defense competent enough to lure a solid veteran QB via free agency (Kirk Cousins type). Until his situation changes, Diontae Johnson is not an asset worth pursuing and will likely continue to lose value throughout his fantasy career.

Works Cited

FantasyPros
PFF
Fantasy Points Data
PlayerProfiler
Diontae Johnson 2023 Player Profile - Reception Perception by Matt Harmon

https://receptionperception.com/diontae-johnson-2023-player-profile/

NFL Week 7 Recap - Fantasy Usage Model by Hayden Winks

https://underdognetwork.com/football/analysis/nfl-week-7-recap-fantasy-usage-model-2024

The Dossier

Image created by DK

Matty Kiwoom 10/23/24 Matty Kiwoom 10/23/24

FANTASY FOOTBALL TRADE ADVICE: WEEK 8 BUY & SELL

We are so far along in the 2024 fantasy football season that even the NFL teams are making deals. Not one but two major fantasy players were dealt last week. We saw Amari Cooper get traded to the Bills and Davonte Adams traded to the Jets. Each wide receiver made their debut for their new ball clubs and I’m ready to proclaim that one is worth buying and the other is an immediately sell candidate in fantasy football. But who is who? Gotta keep reading this week’s buy and sell to find out which newly trade wide receiver I want in fantasy and which one I do not.

Buy

Amari Cooper

In a blink of an eye Amari Cooper went from the fantasy gulag to the fantasy oasis. In his first game with Josh Allen, he finished as WR 15. Cooper ran just 11 routes but was targeted on nearly 50-percent of those routes. The new alpha wideout in Buffalo finished with four catches, 66 receiving yards, and scored a touchdown (on his very first target as a Bill) which was good for 16.6 ppr fantasy points. Before he was dealt, Cooper ran a ton of routes, was targeted deep, and posted one of the biggest air yard shares in the league. No fantasy manager wants their wide receiver to lead the league in unrealised air yards. Now that he is in Buffalo, playing with Allen, those air yards are going to be converted into big time fantasy production. Be aggressive, be-ee aggressive and trade for Amari Cooper.

Who to trade away

Using The Lab on South Harmon dot com, it’s pretty clear that Cooper can be bought for a good fantasy price. Contenders in fantasy football should be sending out offers all day long. Current market indicators (like The Lab) are suggesting that a package of a playable running back plus a flex will land Cooper in seasonal formats. I would also be more than willing to tier down from Garrett Wilson or Marvin Harrison Jr.in redraft. In dynasty, he can be had for a second which is a no brainer. Amari Cooper going to the Buffalo Bills will be the fantasy football version of CC Sabathia being dealt to the MIlwaukee Brewers in 2008. If you don’t get the reference…google it.

Sell

Davante Adams

Understanding the difference between perception and reality in fantasy football is a great way to gain an advantage. The perception surrounding Davante Adams being traded to the Jets is that he will be a top 12-15 WR rest of season. But the reality is that the Jets have a mediocre offense and if last week is any indication then there will be some rough week for Adams. On nine targets, he caught just three for 30 yards. Despite the flop on SNF, he is still at peak value. There is only one way his stock can go from here. He isn’t getting any younger and the market perception is that he will flourish with Aaron Rodgers. Fantasy managers shouldn’t wait for the production to improve (which it will) , trade him at peak value and squeeze that extra value from an aging player whose market value will not increase.

Who to trade for

The obvious path is written out throughout this entire writeup. Moving Adams for Cooper is a proper move to win in 2024. If that is not in the cards then I’d recommend using him as a trade chip to fatten the roster aka a tier down to bring in a secondary piece or turning him into a similarly valued player at running back. The market value for a player like Adams will back a player in the top 40 for WoRP. A top 15-20 WoRP running back to be more specific. The sales pitch is already well known throughout fantasy football now just go out there and make it to capitalize on a player at peak fantasy market value.

The fantasy world is through Week 7 and the season is getting old. Now is the time to make moves. Now is the time to swing for the fences. Now is the time to set the fantasy team up to win in 2024 or gear up for a future championship run. Stay trading my friends…

T-Rock 10/21/24 T-Rock 10/21/24

Week 8 Waiver Targets

Waiver Targets

ReDraft (most of these players will be rostered in Dynasty leagues)

Ricky Pearsall - 25% rostership, spend 20-25% FAAB (A favorite prospect of ours, Ricky checks off every box as a mid-season chip-piece. Pearsall has amazing athleticism and route-running ability. He plays on a top-10 offense with only Kittle, Jennings, and Deebo ahead of him. With how often San Fran’s playmakers are injured, we anticipate Ricky being the #2 or 3 option moving forward as an upside FLEX option. By week 10-12, he should be locked in to aid in your playoff run. Downtier for him in Dynasty leagues.)
Jonnu Smith - 7% rostership, 5-8% FAAB (A top TE in week 7, Jonnu was the focal point of a pitiful Miami offense with 7/7 for 96 yds, 1 TD. Miami will improve significantly with Tua returning to the team in week 8, but it’s unknown if Jonnu will be an afterthought behind Tyreek, Waddle, and Achane. With the uncertainty of the TE landscape, Jonnu is an upside TE2.)
Jameis Winston - 3% rostership, spend 5-8% FAAB (Nothing compares to the Winston experience. There will be a few highs and interceptions galore, but the pre-game hype and post-game interviews make it all worth it. Unfortunately, Jameis has nothing to work with behind a decimated line, but the adventure wouldn’t look much different on an elite offense. Ride the Jameis Train until it flies off the tracks in 2-3 weeks.)
Taysom Hill - 23% rostership, spend 1-3% FAAB (Taysom has missed the last 3 contests due to fractured ribs, but with the Saints falling apart on both sides of the ball, the team is desperate for playmakers on offense. We doubt that the return of Carr will recapture the spark they had at the beginning of the season, but Taysom is continually underrated. Sneak Taysom onto your team as an upside backup TE.)
Jalen McMillan - 6% rostership, spend 1-3% FAAB (With Mike Evans re-aggravating a hamstring injury and the severity being unknown, the rookie WR carries the most upside to step-up on this top 10 offense.)
Marcus Mariota - 0% rostership, spend 0-2% FAAB (Jayden Daniels left week 7 against Carolina with a rib injury. Luckily Daniels did not suffer a fracture, meaning he will likely only miss 1-2 games. Mariota will be the starter against the Bears and possibly versus the Giants. The Bears are a superior defense compared to the Panthers, making Mariota a desperate play.)
Tyler Goodson - 15% rostership, 0% FAAB (Goodson: 14 carries, 51 yds, 1 TD (48% snaps), Sermon: 8 carries, 36 yds, 1 catch, 13 yds (52% snaps). Goodson is the better RB, but with JT slated to return next week Tyler’s outlook is capped. The Colts are an awful offense, so don’t get too carried away with this pickup unless there is a change at QB or JT misses additional time.)

Dynasty

Noah Gray - 40% rostership, 8-10% FAAB in Best Ball (The Chiefs passing attack is shockingly unwatchable. With Juju getting knocked out of the game, it wasn’t Kelce but Gray who led KC in receiving with 4/4 for 66 yds. These are certainly strange times we are playing in.)
Kalif Raymond - 17% rostership, 5-8% FAAB in Best Ball (Kalif has turned in 2 solid performances in a row on an offense that looks almost unstoppable. Kalif will rotate with Tim Patrick as the #3 WR, but offers upside as a cheap option in all Best Ball formats.)
Jake Bobo - 18% rostership, 3-5% FAAB in Best Ball (Bobo didn’t show up in the stats on Sunday, but those who are in the know are aware that Jake is a favorite amongst the Seahawks receivers, especially in the redzone. With DK Metcalf being week-to-week with a knee injury, look for Bobo to see an increase in opportunities.)
JaMycal Hasty - 8% rostership, 3-5% FAAB in Best Ball (Hasty stepped up with 5 catches for 49 yds & 1 TD after New England lost Polk, DeMario, and Gibson getting banged up as well. This offense offers very little upside, making Hasty only worthwhile in Best Ball formats.)
Jacob Cowing - 47% rostership, 1-3% FAAB in Best Ball (With Ricky Pearsall ownership being universal, the next best available option is rookie Jacob Cowing. The 4th Rd pick carries a big-play upside but his opportunities will be limited behind Deebo, Jennings, Pearsall, & Bell.)
Mason Tipton - 23% rostership, 0-1% FAAB in Best Ball (The weekly top receiver for the Saints will be a revolving door, with none of them being worthwhile outside of Best Ball formats. As an undrafted rookie, the Yale prospect carries some upside with his 4.33 speed.)

The Dossier

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Check out the latest from South Harmon

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Matty Kiwoom 10/17/24 Matty Kiwoom 10/17/24

Week 7 Fantasy Football Rankings: F*** Them Injuries

Week 7 is here! Let me repeat…WEEK 7 IS HERE! The fantasy football landscape is beginning to take shape. Teams are starting to know whether they are playoff bound or running out of time. Wins are becoming more and more important as the weeks carry on. The margin for error continues to shrink and fantasy managers HAVE TO make the right start/sit decisions. Choosing the wrong lineup even just for one spot can be the difference between winning and losing which could end up being the difference from making the playoffs and being a laughing stock of your league. My Week 7 rankings are OUT NOW so let me dive into some of the most important aspects of setting fantasy football lineups.

Injured Players

Death, taxes, and injuries during the fantasy football season. Three things that are unavoidable in this life. There are a number of key players that are hurt, coming back from being hurt, or are dealing with an injury that must be monitored heading into kickoff. Travis Etienne, Rachaad White, James Cook, and Devin Singletary are backs that have all been on the injured list. Whether they return or not will have a massive ripple effect on the Week 7 rankings. Will Tank Bigsby be a running back 2? Is Ray Davis startable? Will Tyrone Tracy Jr. continue to produce as a top 15 RB? All of these questions will take time to answer. It appears that Evan Engram is healthy after returning last week and will be a top six tight end in my rankings this week. Injuries are a constant in fantasy football and the rankings eb and flow as updates come out whether they are positive or negative.

Landmines

Avoiding landmines in fantasy football is a skill that is easier to say than to do. This week there are a few players that are coming off of good Week 6 performances but that doesn’t mean that they should be trusted to start. Kimani Vidal scored on a big play but didn’t see volume and that is why he is ranked outside my top 45 at running back. Gabe Davis scored two times and should have caught three or four tuddies but he is still Gabe Davis. That is exactly why he isn’t even a strong flex play as my WR 65. As I mentioned in the previous paragraph, Rachaad White’s health is a big deal. As long as he suits up, fantasy managers should not be excited to start Sean Tucker. Even though he was one of the top performing running backs last week. Big time fantasy points one week can disappear the next week. Don’t be chasing waterfalls and try to avoid land mines.

Sleepers

Caleb Williams and Dak Prescott are off this week and those fantasy teams may be looking to stream a quarterback. There is a pair of rookies that look like they could bridge the gap this week. Bo Nix has been a top 10 QB each of the last two weeks and Drake Maye put up over 20 fantasy points in his first ever start as a pro. I have both players inside my top 20 at the position. Vikings running back, Aaron Jones is recovering from an injury and that could lead to an increase in opportunities for Ty Chandler. Whether or not Jones plays, I will have Ty Chandler just outside of RB 2 range and if the veteran sits out then he’s got to be looked at as a must start in the Lions versus Vikings showdown. Drake Maye is a quarterback sleeper and his lead target, DeMario Douglas is also a sleeper this week. The Patriots take on a soft matchup in the Jaguars which is why Douglas is a top 24 option for me this week in London.

Check out the entire Week 7 positional ranks on South Harmon dot com to help make even the toughest of lineup and replacement decisions.

Matty Kiwoom 10/16/24 Matty Kiwoom 10/16/24

FANTASY FOOTBALL TRADE ADVICE: WEEK 7 BUY & SELL

Believe it or not, there have been six weeks of fantasy matchups. The fantasy football world is in peak trade season. Teams know whether or not they are competing for a 2024 championship and fantasy managers are getting frustrated with high investment players that aren’t producing at the expected level. This crossroads creates a number of opportunities for teams to wheel and deal. This week’s buy and sell are big ticket players that will lead to blockbuster trades.

Buy

CeeDee Lamb

The Dallas Cowboys have been a disappointment this season and their alpha wide receiver, CeeDee Lamb is no exception. Lamb was selected as high as the 1.01 is seasonal drafts but is currently wide receiver 15 overall. He has put up just over 15 fantasy points per contest and that lack of domination has opened a buy window for one of the best players in fantasy football. Despite the lack of perceived production, Lamb is still a top eight wideout and top 20 overall player according to WoRP. He has only one top five week and Dallas has their bye week this week. In 2023 Lamb was incredible after the Cowboy’s bye. He finished with 41, 28.1, and 39.5 fantasy points each of the first three weeks coming off of a bye and scored more than 15 points (his 2024 average) every single game for the rest of the season.

Who to trade away

Trading for a player of CeeDee Lamb’s magnitude will not be easy and the price tag will not be cheap. Regardless of this slight dip in perceived value, no one is going to move him without getting a lot in return. Trade market indicators suggest that moving two startable wide receivers is the starting point. Combining players like George Pickens and Darnell Mooney or Jameson Williams and Diontae Johnson seems like the market average. Also taking a wide receiver like that plus a top 20-25 running back is a possibility. Value doesn’t always have to come cheap, Lamb is a buy right now in fantasy football.

Sell

Marvin Harrison Jr.

There haven’t been many wide receiver prospects to garner as much hype heading into their rookie year like Marvin Harrison Jr. did. Before even taking a snap in the NFL he was being selected at the one/two turn in drafts. Six games into the season and he has 17 catches for 279 yards and four touchdowns. Harrison is scoring 11.5 fantasy points per game which makes him WR 36 in that department. It is abundantly clear that Harrison has a ton of talent but there are some underlying metrics that do not support continued production. Masserati Marv has posted a 1.86 yards per route run, a 21.8-percent target share, and a 1.64 yards per team pass attempt. All metrics rank 35th or worse amongst qualified wideouts. Also his yards after catch is pretty much non-existent. Most market indicators indicate that he is still being valued like a no doubt WR 1 but his WoRP suggests he may not be providing as much value and the market believes. That is exactly why this is a good time to sell the rookie and bring back multiple contributors for the stretch run.

Who to trade for

The first step when looking to move on from Marvin Harrison Jr. is to check in with CeeDee Lamb. If it is possible to move the rookie for Lamb then it's done and dusted. If that isn’t realistic or your squad needs to bring in multiple players then look to acquire two every week starters. Packages of DK Metcalf plus an RB 1-2 or Garrett Wilson plus a player like Darnell Mooney or Amari Cooper is another route to properly selling a player with MHJ’s upside. Trades like this should be handled with care and not rushed. Kick the tires around the league and make sure the return changes weekly projections for the better.

We are just through Week 6 but it is NOT too early to start making deals in fantasy. Slow and steady is for the NFL executives and the folks who don’t want to win their league. Doesn’t matter whether fantasy managers are looking to buy or sell, now is the time to act and show the team that you mean business. There is exactly ZERO research that backs this up but it feels true. Whenever fantasy managers believe in their team, show the team that they’re all in…the squad reciprocates the love via fantasy production. Stay trading my friends…

T-Rock 10/15/24 T-Rock 10/15/24

WK 6 - Top 2024 Tight Ends

The Tight End position is unlike any other asset operating in the field given the extreme difficulty in identifying the top prospects outside of the elite. With our rigorous and proven standards, only the cream of the crop makes it through this Agency’s TE Camp.

The Silence of the Tight Ends

All good things to those who wait.

Hannibal Lecter - The Silence of the Lambs

Tough Love

“Babe! I just got a raise! Aren’t you proud of me?” my wife asks.

“That’s nice babe, but Nico Collins is on IR and I don’t know how long my teams can hold on without Tyreek Hill producing,” I reply.

“Babe, don’t worry. Everyone loves ya and you're doing an amazing job at work! You should be proud!” she responds.

“The only thing I'm proud of is drafting Jake Ferguson, who is single-handedly keeping my team afloat!” I say looking down in shame.

“Oh babe, everything is going to be ok,” she says as she stirs my morning Metamucil.

I do not deserve this woman, making the sting of my failures all the more unbearable. I want to be great, but damn, it's a lot of work. But what can I do about it? What would my dad do?

“You need to stop crying and work harder!” his voice echoes in my head. “Put down the Slim Jim, that’s your fourth one already! Wake up at 4 am like Hugh Jackman and start training like the Wolverine! Dig deeper into your spreadsheets and write something worth a damn! Perhaps when you have a 6-pack, your wife and others will respect you.”

“But Dad,” I reply. “If I do all this work, I won’t get much quality time with my wife and friends.”

“Overrated!” he retorts. “Trust me, son, if you work yourself to death, hardly see your loved ones, and let her buy whatever she wants at Costco, that’s the only way you’re going to turn your fantasy fortunes and marriage around.”

“Thanks, Dad.”

TE Bona Fides

Baseline

PPG (PPR): Courtesy of FantasyPros

1. George Kittle - 17.3 PPG

2. Brock Bowers - 13.8 PPG

3. Cole Kmet - 12.2 PPG

3. Trey McBride - 12.2 PPG

5. Dallas Goedert - 10.8 PPG

6. Tucker Kraft - 9.9 PPG

6. Evan Engram - 9.9 PPG

Strong Indicators

Targets Share: Courtesy of Fantasy Points Data

1. Trey McBride - 25.7%

2. Evan Engram - 24.6%

3. Brock Bowers - 22.2%

4. George Kittle - 21.9%

5. Dalton Kincaid - 18.9%

6. Travis Kelce - 18.8%

Yards Per Team Pass Attempt: Courtesy of PlayerProfiler

1. Dallas Goedert - 1.92 yds

2. Evan Engram - 1.88 yds

3. Trey McBride - 1.83 yds

3. George Kittle - 1.83 yds

5. Brock Bowers - 1.81 yds

6. Cole Kmet - 1.45 yds

Red Zone Targets: Courtesy of FantasyPros

1. George Kittle - 11 Tgts

2. Hunter Henry - 6 Tgts

2. Isaiah Likely - 6 Tgts

2. Colby Parkinson - 6 Tgts

2. Cade Otton - 6 Tgts

Receiving Snaps Per Game (running a receiving route): Courtesy of PFF

1. Tyler Conklin - 34.83

2. Dalton Schultz - 33.17

3. Travis Kelce - 32.2

3. Jake Ferguson - 32.2

5. Cade Otton - 32

6. Noah Fant - 31.83

Fair Indicators

Air Yards %: Courtesy of Fantasy Points Data

1. Travis Kelce - 27.8%

2. Trey McBride - 23.4%

3. Brock Bowers - 21.8%

4. Zach Ertz - 20%

5. Dalton Kincaid - 18%

6. George Kittle - 17.5%

Yards Per Route Run: Courtesy of Fantasy Points Data

1. Dallas Goedert - 2.51 yds

2. Brock Bowers - 2.37 yds

3. Evan Engram - 2.28 yds

4. Will Dissly - 2.27 yds

5. Cole Kmet - 2.26 yds

6. Foster Moreau - 2.15 yds

Targets Per Route Run: Courtesy of Fantasy Points Data

1. Evan Engram - 0.3 tgts

2. Brock Bowers - 0.29 tgts

2. Will Dissly - 0.29 tgts

4. Trey McBride - 0.28 tgts

5. Jonnu Smith - 0.27 tgts

6. George Kittle - 0.25 tgts

Faint Indicators

Average Depth of Target: Courtesy of Fantasy Points Data

1. Mark Andrews - 10.7 yds

1. Brenton Strange - 10.7 yds

3. Foster Moreau - 9.9 yds

4. Isaiah Likely - 9.7 yds

4. Taysom Hill - 9.7 yds

6. Zach Ertz - 8.6 yds

Pass Blocking % (Lowest %): Courtesy of PFF

1. Dallas Goedert - 0.7%

2. Mike Gesicki - 1.6%

3. Trey McBride - 1.9%

4. Jake Ferguson - 3.4%

5. Evan Engram - 3.6%

5. Isaiah Likely - 3.6%

Yards After The Catch Per Reception: Courtesy of Fantasy Points Data

1. Tucker Kraft - 10.78 YAC

2. Sam LaPorta - 10.08 YAC

3. Dalton Kincaid - 7.57 YAC

4. Will Dissly - 7.23 YAC

5. Dallas Goedert - 6.96 YAC

6. David Njoku - 6.9 YAC

Considerations from Underdog

TE Team Usage (Expected Fantasy Points) (Wks 3-6): Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog

1. Chiefs (Travis Kelce) - 13.1 pts

2. Rams (Colby Parkinson) - 12.4 pts

3. Eagles (Dallas Goedert) - 11.7 pts

4. Jaguars (Engram & Strange) - 11.6 pts

5. Cowboys (Jake Ferguson) - 11.5 pts

6. Jets (Tyler Conklin) - 11.2 pts

HPPR (Production) Rank: Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog

1. George Kittle - 1st

2. Dallas Goedert - 2nd

3. Evan Engram - 3rd

4. Cole Kmet - 4th

5. Tucker Kraft - 5th

6. Brock Bowers - 6th

EXP (Expectation) Rank: Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog

1. George Kittle - 1st

2. Dallas Goedert - 2nd

3. Colby Parkinson - 3rd

4. Evan Engram - 4th

5. Trey McBride - 5th

6. Travis Kelce - 6th

Results

Overall:

1. George Kittle - 51 pts

2. Brock Bowers - 50 pts

3. Trey McBride - 48 pts

3. Dallas Goedert - 48 pts

5. Evan Engram - 47 pts

6. Travis Kelce - 46 pts

Works Cited

FantasyPros
PFF
Fantasy Points Data
PlayerProfiler
NFL Week 6 Recap - Fantasy Usage Model by Hayden Winks

https://underdognetwork.com/football/analysis/nfl-week-6-recap-fantasy-usage-model-2024

The Dossier

Image created by DK

T-Rock 10/15/24 T-Rock 10/15/24

Week 7 Waiver Targets

Waiver Targets

ReDraft (most of these players will be rostered in Dynasty leagues)

Russell Wilson - 8% rostership, spend 25-30% FAAB (Fields has been amazing for fantasy as the QB6 & leading the Steelers to a 4-2 record. But the plan all along has been Russell. Fields hasn’t done any favors for his receivers and coach Tomlin knows that his team won’t go far if they can’t consistently push the ball through the air. Hold/Buy Fields in dynasty for his future opportunities. Stock up for Pickens, Freiermuth, and Warren with the QB change.)
Drake Maye - 15% rostership, spend 20-25% FAAB (An impressive debut against a tough HOU defense - 20/33 243 yds, 3 TDs, 2 INTs (5 rushes for 38 yds). Maye will spark the entire offense in a way Jacoby never could, both through the air & with his legs. Get excited for the #3 overall pick.)
DeMario Douglas - 14% rostership, 15-18% FAAB (Douglas is the best NE receiver by a country mile. The scheme capped his potential through the first 5 weeks, but with Maye targeting him like he did with Josh Downs at UNC, look for Douglas to Pop off.)
Ray Davis - 19% rostership, 12-15% FAAB (A favorite RB prospect coming out of the draft, the former Kentucky Wildcat shredded the stout Jets defense for 152 total yards for the best game of his young career. Even if James Cook returns from injury, Davis will continue to earn more touches as the Bills passing offense continues to stink.)
Spencer Rattler - 9% rostership, spend 8-10% FAAB (With top 24 QBs hard to come by in SF leagues, and Rattler guaranteed to start for the next few weeks with Carr on the mend, Spencer is a decent add. Rattler has a tough stretch against the DEN & LAC defenses over the next 2 weeks, and without Olave & possibly Shaheed, it could be tough sledding for the rookie QB.)
Sean Tucker - 0% rostership, 5-8% FAAB in Best Ball (Wow, wow, wow… wow. Sean Tucker likely had the best game of his career as the RB1 in week 6. The Bucs RBs continue to outperform their expectations and make the most of their limited usage in a pass-happy offense. With 2 capable RBs in Bucky Irving & Tucker, TB may take their time in bringing back Rachaad White.)
Rashod Bateman - 17% rostership, spend 5-8% FAAB (It only took 4 yrs for Bateman to be relevant in fantasy, but we are finally here. Locked in shootouts over their last few games, the Ravens have pushed themselves to be a balanced offense and pass more. Bateman has benefited greatly and has been a top-40 WR in 3 of the last 4 contests. Bateman should be started in wk 7 against a high-scoring Bucs offense as a FLEX-worthy add.)
Isaac Guerendo - 5% rostership, 5-8% FAAB (Most of his production came on a 76-yard TD, but that play also epitomizes how explosive the talented rookie can be. Jordan Mason could very well play through his AC joint sprain, but with the situation around CMC still being mirky, Guerendo is worth a flier should Mason miss any more time.)
Trey Benson - 27% rostership, 5-8% FAAB (James Conner has kept Benson on the bench all season long, but if Conner were to miss any time with his ankle injury then Benson becomes an add with mediocre expectations.)
Ja’Tavion Sanders - 6% rostership, 3-5% FAAB (With Tremble suffering a concussion and Ian Thomas being Ian Thomas, Sanders seized the moment as the Panther’s 2nd-leading receiver with 5/7 for 49 yards. With the Panthers needing to build towards the future and so few TEs worth picking up off the waiver wire, Sanders offers decent upside.)
Blake Corum - 22% rostership, 3-5% FAAB (As a preemptive move in case Kyren Williams were to miss any time, Corum should be added as an upside stash to benches over under-performing players who offer zero upsides.)
Noah Brown - 3% rostership, 2-3% FAAB in Best Ball (We believe Noah Brown edges out Olamide Zaccheaus as the #3 on this offense behind McLaurin & Ertz. Brown out-snapped Olamide 64-39% & led the Commanders in targets with 8 against Baltimore. WAS is an offense that will continue to improve, making Brown a worthwhile add that won’t cost much.)
Kimani Vidal - 16% rostership, spend 2-3% FAAB (With Gus on IR, Vidal may not be able to take too many touches away from Dobbins on the ground, but Kimani offers some upside through the air. The fragility of the Chargers backfield and Vidal’s prospect profile makes him an upside stash.)
Pierre Strong/D’Onta Foreman - 0-5% rostership, 0-1% FAAB (With Ford sustaining a hamstring injury of unknown severity, and Chubb eyeing a return soon, Strong & Foreman could be had for free in the event things don’t go well for Chubb. But the Browns are awful, so it may not matter.)

Dynasty

Bub Means - 21% rostership, 8-10% FAAB in Best Ball (With Olave likely out against Denver and Shaheed dealing with a knee injury, Bub has emerged as the clear #1 for a Saints team that is desperate at WR.)
Devaughn Vele - 43% rostership, 5-8% FAAB in Best Ball (Outside of Sutton, the receiving opportunities have been wide-open in DEN under coach Payton’s entire tenure. At 6’5”, Vele led the team with 78 yards receiving, making him an intriguing waiver consideration if you want to take a shot at the rookie.)
Grant Calcaterra - 0% rostership, 3-5% FAAB in Best Ball (Calcaterra stepped up with 4/4 for 67 yds and played well for the injured Dallas Goedert. The Eagles are playing nowhere near their potential, making a fringe player like Calcaterra a risky play, but the entire TE position is a crapshoot anyway.)
Foster Moreau - 20% rostership, 3-5% FAAB in Best Ball (The Saints may lean more heavily on their TEs Foster & Juwan without their top WRs against the Broncos. Foster led NO in receiving in wk 6, but had 2 goose-egg performances in wk 2&4, so he’s only worth a damn in Best Ball formats.)
D’Ernest Johnson - 7% rostership, 1-3% FAAB in Best Ball (D’Ernest offers very little upside on a bad JAX team, but with Etienne injuring his hamstring, and Tank’s play being hot or cold, Johnson is worth an add if you have the room.)
Kayshon Boutte/Kendrick Bourne - 19-43% rostership, 0-3% FAAB in Best Ball (Kendrick Bourne is the upside play of this duo, but owned in a far higher percentage of leagues. With Maye taking over as the QB, these WRs are worth rostering in all BB formats as we wait to see how the receiver room shakes out behind Pop Douglas.)

The Dossier

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T-Rock 10/10/24 T-Rock 10/10/24

WK 5 - Superpowers

Superpower franchises are the most influential teams in the NFL, with the best players for fantasy football. Their offensive ecosystems provide managers with high-end production at nearly every position. With elite offensive talent top to bottom, amazing coaching, and solid defenses, players on these rosters epitomize championship caliber.

Elite Fantasy Franchises Of 2024

Wanting people to listen, you can't just tap them on the shoulder anymore. You have to hit them with a sledgehammer, and then you'll notice you've got their strict attention.

John Doe - Se7en

SITREP - Superpowers

Saints - The Saints made this tier by the narrowest of margins. Alvin Kamara is rarely mentioned in the same breath as CMC, King Henry, and Saquon Barkley as one of the best RBs of his generation, but at age 29 the future Hall of Famer still plays like one of the best players in the NFL. Sadly, the Saints will continue to lose much of their early season momentum with Derek Carr being sidelined for multiple weeks with a torn oblique. This puts a massive damper on Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, who was having a career year and on pace as a top 20 WR. Carr’s injury opens the door for rookie Spencer Rattler, who did not receive the best grade from us as a prospect but is interesting considering New Orleans’ playmakers and coaches. In a season of surprises, the once-projected 1.01 is worth an add as a bye-week QB. If Rattler can’t handle the offense, then Kamara and Taysom Hill will likely be run into the ground until Carr returns.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.44 (24th in NFL), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 84.2 (2nd), RunBlk = 65.6 (14th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Derek Carr = 87.8 (1st), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 81.2 (9th), (Courtesy PFF)

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 22.5 pts (7th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Receiving Rating - 77.7 (3rd), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 24.5 pts (23rd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 6 pts (28th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 65.8 (15th), RunD = 51.7 (27th), PassRsh = 69.1 (15th), Cov = 68.4 (13th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - Home vs TB, home vs DEN, at LAC, at CAR, home vs ATL, at CLE, home vs LAR, at NYG, home vs WAS

Packers - The Packers are an odd team. They are the most run-heavy team in the NFL, but Josh Jacobs is shockingly the RB24 with only 1 TD. Their Neutral Pass Rate is interesting considering their talent at receiver, with Jayden Reed playing like a superstar and Tucker Kraft thriving as the Last of the TE Tribe. Green Bay seems reluctant to put too much on Jordan Love’s shoulders despite his embarrassment of riches at receiver. His performance so far this season looks nowhere near his level of play in 2023, and yet he is still averaging the 4th most fantasy points at QB. They're certainly not showing any signs of slowing, so it may be best to get on this wild boat ride where there's no earthly way of knowing which direction LaFleur has his team going.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.31 (32nd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 81.3 (1st), RunBlk = 56.7 (26th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Jordan Love = 61.9 (24th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 88.7 (2nd), (Courtesy PFF)

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 20.4 pts (16th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Receiving Rating - 66.6 (20th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 24.2 pts (21st), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 28.3 pts (18th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 63.9 (17th-tied), RunD = 57.4 (23rd), PassRsh = 65 (21st), Cov = 67.3 (15th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - Home vs ARI, home vs HOU, at JAX, home vs DET, at CHI, home vs 49ers, home vs MIA, at DET, at SEA

Eagles - Fully healthy, could the Eagles support a #1 at every position in fantasy? Yes, they could, which is what we fully expect once the team returns from their bye-week and hopefully welcomes back both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. This elite duo should settle the erratic play of Jalen Hurts, who should still be considered an elite fantasy QB with his rushing upside. With critical injuries to the offense and poor play from the defense, the Eagles are desperate to avoid repeating the disappointment of 2023. Helping Hurts shoulder the load is a fantasy godsend, Saquon Barkley, who is arguably the best RB in football right now. Invest in this offense now and cross your fingers that they can stay healthy enough for a massive offensive surge the rest of the way.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.49 (14th - tied), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 72.6 (8th), RunBlk = 73.3 (6th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Jalen Hurts = 51.7 (32nd), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 81.4 (8th), (Courtesy PFF)

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 20.6 pts (14th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Receiving Rating - 70.2 (16th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 21.3 pts (27th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 12.7 pts (1st), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 62.6 (23rd), RunD = 49 (28th), PassRsh = 77.2 (5th), Cov = 61.7 (21st), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - Home vs CLE, at NYG, at CIN, home vs JAX, at DAL, home vs WAS, at LAR, at BAL, home vs CAR

Buccaneers - Few passing attacks have looked as great as Baker Mayfield with the Buccaneers this season. The offense looks better than last year, despite losing their talented OC Dave Canales, all thanks to Baker having the best season start of his career. Chris Godwin and Mike Evans both look unstoppable as top 10 WRs. One of the most interesting players is rookie RB Bucky Irving. Bucky has outperformed Rachaad White, but it may not matter since the Bucs have one of the most dominant personnel groups in the NFL when both RBs are on the field together. Tampa Bay offers the best values in all of fantasy football.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.55 (7th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 70.9 (10th), RunBlk = 64.5 (15th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Baker Mayfield = 80.6 (5th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 74.7 (21st), (Courtesy PFF)

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 18.4 pts (25th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Receiving Rating - 73 (10th-tied), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 28.5 pts (17th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 8.5 pts (18th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 66.8 (14th), RunD = 48.8 (29th), PassRsh = 69 (16th), Cov = 75.4 (7th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - At NO, home vs BAL, home vs ATL, at KC, home vs SF, at NYG, at CAR, home vs LV, at LAC

49ers - The 49ers have not had the best start to their 2024 season, but make no mistake that San Francisco is still one of the best offensive teams in the NFL. Purdy is not wowing managers who only look at the final stat lines. But anyone who watches the games has seen the signal caller routinely make impressive throws in a dynamic offense tailor-made to his skillset. Losing the offensive player of the year in CMC would crush most teams, but Jordan Mason has been nothing short of spectacular. The waiver-wire god is playing like a top-5 RB. The biggest area of needed improvement has been the defense closing out games and the redzone offense, which too often settles for FGs instead of TDs. Their game against Seattle will be a turning point in week 6.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.51 (10th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 68.9 (13th), RunBlk = 78.3 (2nd), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Brock Purdy = 84 (3rd), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 75.7 (17th), (Courtesy PFF)

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 18.5 pts (23rd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Receiving Rating - 78.3 (2nd), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 35.1 pts (5th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 12.6 pts (2nd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 73.6 (6th - tied), RunD = 55.3 (25th), PassRsh = 76.5 (6th), Cov = 79.8 (4th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - At SEA, home vs kc, home vs dal, at TB, home vs SEA, at GB, at BUF, home vs CHI, home vs LAR

Texans - Houston may not be winning as impressively as in 2023, but the team has shown true grit persevering through injuries to be at 4-1. C.J. Stroud is building off his historic rookie season and solidifying himself as an elite passer. The chemistry between Stroud and Nico Collins is otherworldly. Unfortunately, Collins is now on IR with a hamstring injury, which likely derails his prospect of joining the elite tier of WRs this year, but reopens his buy window. With Stefon Diggs playing at a high level, and Tank Dell looking to rekindle last year’s dominance, this offense is still dangerous. The Texans would greatly benefit from the return of Joe Mixon but given the ravages of time, he may not endure the 2024 season.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.51 (12th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 79.1 (12th), RunBlk = 59.9 (22nd), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - C.J. Stroud = 76.5 (9th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 73.5 (22nd), (Courtesy PFF)

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 19.4 pts (19th-tied), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Receiving Rating - 79.1 (1st), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 36.1 pts (4th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 7.7 pts (19th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 63.9 (17th-tied), RunD = 60.1 (20th), PassRsh = 64.9 (22nd), Cov = 63.6 (18th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - At NE, at GB, home vs IND, at NYJ, home vs DET, at DAL, home vs TEN, at JAX, home vs MIA

Seahawks - What started as great for Seattle has been tough sledding over the last two weeks with no sign of relief until their week 10 bye. Mike Macdonald and Ryan Grubb have made the Seahawks exciting again for fantasy football. Geno Smith leads an impressive WR trio for an offense that leads the league in Neutral Pass Rate. According to PFF, their passing attack is complemented by one of the best backfields in the NFL, which ranks first in Run Rating. The Achilles heel of this team may be their offensive line, which allowed 7 sacks in their latest contest versus the Giants. This issue makes it tough to fully trust in any of the WRs besides DK Metcalf, who is enjoying one of the best seasons of his career. In the year of our lord 2024, RBs are king, so put your faith in Walker and Charbonnet as they carry you to a championship.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.71 (1st), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 52.8 (27th), RunBlk = 66.4 (13th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Geno Smith = 73.8 (10th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 91.7 (1st), (Courtesy PFF)

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 17.1 pts (27th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Receiving Rating - 71.7 (14th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 38 pts (3rd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 7.3 pts (22nd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 74.2 (5th), RunD = 68.5 (7th), PassRsh = 65.9 (19th), Cov = 75.5 (6th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - Home vs SF, at ATL, home vs BUF, home vs LAR, at SF, home vs ARI, at NYJ, at ARI, home vs GB

Lions - Tattered pleather booths, “Higher” by Creed playing on the jukebox, an order of 50¢ boneless wings with an ice cold Bud, and watching smash-mouth football. No, you haven’t died and gone to Heaven, but Dan Campbell’s Lions may be the closest thing we get to paradise in this life. Like many other Superpower franchises, Detroit asserts its dominance by pummeling defenses with its rushing attack. Montgomery and Gibbs have hit the ground running, while the passing attack deciphers how to recapture the spark from 2023. Jameson Williams’ breakout season has been the lone bright spot of the passing offense this year. His speed and big-play ability are exactly what the Lions need while Goff, Amon-Ra, and LaPorta figure out how to assert their prowess as one of the best trios in football.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.48 (17th - tied), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 74.4 (6th), RunBlk = 75.4 (4th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Jared Goff = 54.6 (29th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 86.8 (5th), (Courtesy PFF)

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 27.4 pts (1st), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Receiving Rating - 73.3 (8th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 30.1 pts (13th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 6.1 pts (26th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 76.6 (2nd), RunD = 68.2 (8th), PassRsh = 85 (2nd), Cov = 68.6 (11th - tied), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - At DAL, at MIN, home vs TEN, at GB, at HOU, home vs JAX, at IND, home vs CHI, home vs GB

Vikings - There is no one in the NFL who can stand against the Vikings! Led by a QB everyone believed to be dead, Kevin O’Connell has resurrected Sam Darnold’s career with a passing attack that pushes the ball deep down the throats of defenses. The only blunder more egregious than fading Justin Jefferson was drafting the Madden Cursed CMC. This is only further compounded by Aaron Jones’ excellent play, who at age 29 was the 10th-best RB before his injury. Behind Brian Flores’ exotic defense and O’Connell’s clear vision on offense, Minnesota could sustain their success on their narrow way to a Super Bowl.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.51 (11th - tied), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 68.6 (15th), RunBlk = 78 (3rd), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Sam Darnold = 65.8 (20th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 75.1 (18th), (Courtesy PFF)

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 22.1 pts (9th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Receiving Rating - 73 (10th - tied), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 27.5 pts (19th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 5.4 pts (30th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 71.2 (11th), RunD = 79.1 (2nd), PassRsh = 56.4 (28th), Cov = 74.9 (8th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - Home vs DET, at LAR, home vs IND, at JAX, at TEN, at CHI, home vs ARI, home vs ATL, home vs CHI

Works Cited

PFF
NFL Week 5 Recap - Fantasy Usage Model by Hayden Winks

https://underdognetwork.com/football/news/nfl-week-5-recap-fantasy-usage-model-2024

The Dossier

Image created by DK

Matty Kiwoom 10/10/24 Matty Kiwoom 10/10/24

WEEK 6 RANKINGS: MVP MAtchup

Folks…we are in the thick of the fantasy football trenches. Every fantasy team is dealing with players busting, getting hurt or going on a one week vacation. Now is such an important time of the fantasy season because these next few matchups will dictate whether teams make the playoffs or not. Fantasy managers are tasked with tough start/sit decisions and are in need of replacements. Week 6 has some big time projected scoring matchups and some not so exciting for fantasy football. My Week 6 rankings are OUT NOW so let me dive into some of the most interesting and exciting ranks for the upcoming NFL slate.

Good Matchups

Two matchups stick out like a Corvette at a trailer park. Both the Cowboys versus the Lions and Baltimore versus Washington matchup have an over/under higher than 50! These games are like a block party…everyone is invited. All four quarterbacks are nestled inside my top 10. CeeDee Lamb and Amon-Ra St. Brown is in a position to break fantasy scoring systems and Sam LaPorta should not be doubted. I have ranked him higher than consensus because of the potential offensive atmosphere. The Commanders playing the Ravens is a football matchup made in heaven. Two of the most exciting quarterbacks in the sport class in a battle that has the second highest projection on the slate. Just like LaPorta, Mark Andrews should be started with the confidence of a top 10 tight end. There are a number of streaming and replacement options in these matchups like Jalen Tolbert and Rashod Bateman are in flex consideration and Zach Ertz can be streamed at tight end. Please football heavens, allow these games to go over.

Bad Matchups

Monday Night Football is a clash of AFC North opponents and I do not love the projected game script. The Bills and Jets have an over/under hardly over 40 points. The great and powerful Josh Allen fell outside my top 5 for the first time this season. His tight end, Dalton Kincaid, is outside of the top 10 tight ends. The lowest projected total is the Chargers versus Broncos matchup. JK Dobbins and Courtland Sutton are still playable but I am more nervous about them than consensus which are reflected in the Week 6 rankings. In a matter of moments the Patriots versus Texans matchup which has a sub 40 point over/under, has some intrigue. Drake Maye is not the starter and my QB 24 and Stefon Diggs is my WR 3 with Nico Collins on the IR.

Week 6 Sleepers

Don’t look now but Daniel Jones is a top 15 quarterback and has already racked up three top 12 finishes. This week he is a streamer consideration given the solid play and projected matchup on Sunday Night Football. The Giants take on the Bengals in a matchup that has an over/under pushing 50. Caleb Williams is still available in shallower leagues and a big Week 6 is on the table. The Bears play the Jags in London and Jacksonville has been a launching pad for opposing quarterbacks and Williams is another three away from playing with a ball on fire (NBA Jam reference). Romeo Doubs has been dropped in many leagues but he should bounce back in Week 6. The Packers could be in a shootout with the Cardinals and he has already been reinstated from his team issued suspension.

Check out the entire Week 6 positional ranks on South Harmon dot com to help make even the toughest of lineup and replacement decisions.

Matty Kiwoom 10/9/24 Matty Kiwoom 10/9/24

FANTASY FOOTBALL TRADE ADVICE: WEEK 6 BUY & SELL

Are we having fun yet? Week 5 is over and done and some of the biggest matchups of the entire season are coming up. The difference between winning and losing over the course of the next month will dictate whether we are playoff bound or on the outside looking in. So this week I am going to take a slightly different approach to executing on the trade market. The buy and sell for this week will have short term ROI. This week’s buy and sell are for the fantasy managers that are either looking to save their season or book their ticket to the postseason.

Buy

Stefon Diggs

The veteran wide receiver has been in Houston for five regular season games and he has already left a mark for both the Texans and the fantasy world. Stefon Diggs is currently WR 11 on a points per game basis and has the 14th highest WoRP in fantasy. He has been more valuable than CeeDee Lamb, Breece Hall, Bijan Robinson, and Marvin Harrison Jr so far this season. Diggs has found a role as CJ Stroud’s slot receiver and he has balled out. Running the fifth most slot snaps in the league he has been able to finish as a top 25 wideout in four of his first five games. Diggs has clearly locked himself in as the number two pass catcher in this offense and the alpha, Nico Collins, may be sidelined with a hamstring ailment. Houston’s next three games are against the Patriots, Packers, and Colts which are all great for Stefon Diggs. Buy now before the price continues to skyrocket.

Who to trade away

Acquiring a player who has played well can be done many ways but the best two are definitely tiering down or selling perceived upside. Using The Lab, there are two trades that have happened in my leagues that highlight a path to buying into Stef Diggs. Selling a wide receiver for DJ Moore, DK Metcalf or Chris Godwin for Diggs plus an RB 2 type of player. The other example was Zay Flowers for Diggs which may work better for teams that have their backs against the corner.

Sell

Breece Hall

After starting strong, Breece Hall has scored just 10.5 PPR fantasy total over the last two games. The tailback is now a borderline top 24 player in WoRP. There are some negative indicators in his analytical profile. He’s not creating much or evading many tackles so far this season. Listen, Hall is very talented and should continue to be valued very highly but scared money don’t make money. He is a big ticket asset that will allow ‘win’ needy teams to shop in the luxury aisles. The Jets just fired their head coach and their next three games will be against some of the toughest teams against the run. Between Braelon Allen snagging opportunities and the tough upcoming matchups, now is the time to cash in on Breece Hall.

Who to trade for

Trading a player like Breece Hall will bring a return that could right the ship. Hall has the value to bring a lesser back and a starting wide receiver into the fold. Hall for Jonathan Taylor and Tee Higgins or Jayden Reed and De’Von Achane are both teams that have been executed recently in familiar trade markets. Fantasy managers with teams that don’t need multiple starters trade Breece Hall for another running back causing people to panic. Bijan Robinson. Robinson’s next month will be a lot easier than Hall’s but he is one of the only players that possess similar talent. Go shopping for top shelf items.

We are just through Week 5 but it is NOT too early to start making deals in fantasy. Slow and steady is for the NFL executives and the folks who don’t want to win their league. Doesn’t matter whether fantasy managers are looking to buy or sell, now is the time to act and show the team that you mean business. There is exactly ZERO research that backs this up but it feels true. Whenever fantasy managers believe in their team, show the team that they’re all in…the squad reciprocates the love via fantasy production. Stay trading my friends…

T-Rock 10/7/24 T-Rock 10/7/24

Week 6 Waiver Targets

Waiver Targets

ReDraft (most of these players will be rostered in Dynasty leagues)

Tank Bigsby - 31% rostership, 20-25% FAAB in Best Ball (Was advocated as a pickup after wk 1. His 129 total yards & 2 TDs in wk 5 were a career-best, perhaps signaling a true 50/50 split moving forward on this dysfunctional offense.)
Ty Chandler - 36% rostership, spend 18-20% FAAB (Aaron Jones suffered a hip injury with unknown severity in wk 5. Jones could be out several weeks at his age, and if Chandler performs well, then Jones won’t be rushed back for the undefeated franchise. The Vikings have a bye in wk 6, but you may not want to risk losing out on the potential RB1 in one of the best offenses in 2024.)
Joe Flacco - 13% rostership, 15-18% FAAB (We may have a Pittsburgh/Green Bay situation, where the coach takes their time before rushing back the starting QB. Especially with how much better the offense has looked under Joe - 33/44, 359 yds, 3 TDs. Flacco is the perfect bye-wk QB if he is starting & worth a pickup if ARich were to pick up any further injuries.)
Tyrone Tracy - 33% rostership, 10-12% FAAB (A dynasty favorite coming out of the draft for his unique profile as a WR converted RB. The rookie showcased his rushing ability while filling in for the injured Singletary. He exploded against a tough SEA defense with 129 rushing yards on 18 attempts. He is a FLEX-worthy option if Devin misses any further contests, but nothing more on an untrustworthy offense.)
Colby Parkinson - 38% rostership, spend 8-10% FAAB (Close to setting career season highs after only 5 games, Colby has seen steady volume as one of the top pass catchers for a snakebit Rams team. With how awful the TE position has been, it would be worth stashing Colby ahead of their wk 6 bye.)
Roschon Johnson - 32% rostership, spend 5-8% FAAB (The goalline back may not serve much more purpose than Swift’s TD vulture, but sometimes this is enough in fantasy as the pickings slim down.)
Jaylen Wright - 20% rostership, spend 5-8% FAAB (Someone please check the Dolphins’ helmets for God’s sake. With Achane joining Tua in the maze, Jaylen Wright and Raheem Mostert stepped up to share the backfield in wk. 5. Wright played efficiently with 13 attempts for 86 yds. Miami has wk. 6 bye week, giving Achane 2 weeks to come back, but with how bad things have been in Miami, we wouldn’t be surprised to see the coach hold out Achane until Tua returns in wk. 8. Achane & Mostert are injury-prone, making Wright a worthwhile pickup for the ROS.)
Ray-Ray McCloud - 10% rostership, 0-1% FAAB (A top 50 WR for 4/5 weeks, Ray-Ray had his best game in wk. 5 with 6/9 for 66 yds. The Falcons are a frustrating offense, but with Cousins averaging 274 yds a game (tied-5th in NFL), McCloud could be a decent option if needed.)

Dynasty

Jalen Coker - 17% rostership, 8-10% FAAB in Best Ball only (A UDFA out of Holy Cross, the 6’3” 213 lb WR got the attention of Steve Smith Sr. during the Draft process and became a dynasty stash. With an injury to Legette, Coker made the most of his opportunity by going 4/4 for 68 yds. It is not often UDFAs out of small schools can make their way into a 53% snap share during their rookie season, but he has talent and Steve Smith’s interest, and that’s enough to put in a waiver.)
Charlie Kolar - 2% rostership, 0-1% FAAB in Best Ball (It started with Likely, but now it seems that Charlie Kolar will be a major beneficiary of the Mark Andrews downfall. In all seriousness, Kolar is only worth an add in Best Ball leagues if you have someone on your bench that you can drop because they are Practice Team player.)

The Dossier

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T-Rock 10/3/24 T-Rock 10/3/24

WK 4 - Besieged Powers

I know why you are here. You’re craving a compelling story with high production value. You also appreciate an emotional connection, delivered through clever literary structures and thought-provoking themes.

“Fuck that! How much should I bid on Kareem Hunt!?” shouts the crowd from the Mutantverse. “Why don’t the Colts make Joe Flacco the starter??? Have they seen ARich pass the ball?!”

Good Franchises That Could Be Great in 2024

The Force is with you, young Skywalker. But you are not a Jedi yet.
Darth Vader - Star Wars: Episode V - The Empire Strikes Back

Logjammin’

“Fuck that! How much should I bid on Kareem Hunt!?” shouts the crowd from the Mutantverse. “Why don’t the Colts make Joe Flacco the starter??? Have they seen ARich pass the ball?!”

Regrettably, the standards have fallen with the written medium while competing with YouTube. The market has clarified that anything more than “buy, sell, sit, start, and rankings” wastes the audience’s time. Advancements in analytics and tools equip fantasy players to compete unlike ever before. But does access to technology and content lead to more championships for managers?

Yes and no. Having well-researched information from trusted sources can help players make better decisions. But we are an over-stimulated culture, over-burdened with anxiety, and incapable of patience. We can find this same experience in many other aspects of our culture. Take, for instance, the adult entertainment industry.

Due in part to the ease of access and proliferation of explicit content, the average male lasts less than five minutes in bed and is often left with a profound sense of fatigue and a feeling of emptiness (not that I would know). Some subjects have described this sensation as “a loss of essence.” This phenomenon is strikingly similar to what Fantasy Psychologists have coined “Post-Trade Clarity.” Fantasy addicts, often referred to as “degenerates,” on average consume 2-4 hours of fantasy content per day, leading to idealized and usually unrealistic standards for their rosters. Now with a picture in mind of what a “successful” roster construction looks like, degenerates become obsessed with improving their team, frequently spending hours that stretch late into the early morning hunting for the perfect trade. Sadly, there are detrimental effects to this type of behavior, including but not limited to:

Pathological Trading: Managers who believe their own lies regarding player valuations in order to be more convincing salesmen in trade talks.
KTC Dissociation: The inability to separate KTC’s Trade Calculator values from reality.
Contending Impostorism: Belief that your team is championship caliber despite being outside the top three in scoring.
Asset Hoarding Disorder: A strong emotional attachment to players that skews their market value, often leading to unrealistic prices and holding players far past their sell windows.

These conditions, shortness of QBs in superflex leagues, Post Injury Stress Disorder, and many other symptoms have become pervasive in fantasy football. As someone who has lived with these plights for nearly twenty years, I recognize that acknowledging the issues is the first step in treatment. I have a long road to recovery.

SITREP - Besieged Powers

The following teams are often good, and occasionally great. However, similar to me regarding math problems and women in school, these franchises need help. They haven’t cracked the code yet to operate as a cohesive ensemble, and instead revolve their offense around one or two players. Overall, they haven't reached their full potential and are lacking consistency. With that said, these offenses still showcase some of the best players in the entire league, and it will be only a matter of time for some of these teams to ramp up and join the Superpowers.

Chiefs - Beginning with the positives, Steve Spagnuolo doesn’t get nearly enough recognition as one of the best DCs in the NFL. His coaching, along with Andy Reid and Mahomes, is a major reason the Chiefs can even come close to creating a dyasty. Unfortunately, the same can not be said of Matt Nagy as the OC. Since replacing Eric Bieniemy, Mahomes’ fantasy production has dropped dramatically (8th in 2023, 16th in 2024). Mahomes was a top 4 fantasy QB in 4/5 years under Bieniemy. Funneling the entire offense through Rashee Rice and Isiah Pacheco was only great for Rice and Pacheco owners until they were lost to injury. Watching Mahomes, it is clear he is still the best QB in the NFL. Trading for the QB now in hopes of an OC change next season is a no-brainer move, but still remains difficult. Managers don’t want to trade for the depressed production, and owners don’t want to trade at any discount. It remains to be seen if Travis Kelce and Kareem Hunt have aged like fine wine or will play like piss and vineagar.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.51 (11th in NFL), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 67.5 (17th), RunBlk = 68.2 (10th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Patrick Mahomes = 70.7 (16th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 77.5 (13th), (Courtesy PFF)

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 21.6 pts (9th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Receiving Rating - 69.1 (17th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 19.5 pts (28th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 10 pts (5th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 69.3 (14th), RunD = 67.2 (9th), PassRsh = 74.1 (7th), Cov = 62.1 (21st), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - Home vs NO, at SF, at LV, home vs TB, home vs DEN, at BUF, at CAR, home vs LV, home vs LAC

Cowboys - The Cowboys are a great example of how having the WORST defense in the league can cripple an offense. At 29th in time of possession, and one of the worst run games in the league, Dallas becomes pigeonholed on offense. With an offensive line that has taken a huge step back since last year, defenses can pin their ears back and dial up blitzes all game long. Dak has played well despite the team’s deficiencies, including as a top-10 passer when facing pressure and the blitz. The Cowboys are one of the few teams that took a glaring step back during the offseason and it's showing up now.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.55 (5th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 63.5 (21st), RunBlk = 58.7 (24th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Dak Prescott = 64.5 (25th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 67.2 (25th), (Courtesy PFF)

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 16.8 pts (29th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Receiving Rating - 66.6 (19th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 30.3 pts (8th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 9.6 pts (7th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 52 (32nd), RunD = 37.7 (32nd), PassRsh = 65 (21st), Cov = 59.2 (23rd), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - At PIT, home vs DET, at SF, at ATL, home vs PHI, home vs HOU, at WAS, home vs NYG, home vs CIN

Bills - No QB is playing better than Josh Allen. With a rag-tag group of slot receivers and a defense that lost a lot of players to free agency, many predicted a rough 2024 for the Bills. A lot of props need to be given to the defensive coaches for developing their young talent, and a lot more kudos to Joe Brady’s work with the offense and James Cook. Not much should be made of the complete dismantling by Baltimore; the Ravens are going to expose a lot of teams with Derrick Henry.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.52 (9th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 71.6 (9th), RunBlk = 59.3 (22nd), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Josh Allen = 72.6 (14th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 86.3 (4th), (Courtesy PFF)

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 19.3 pts (18th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Receiving Rating - 69.4 (15th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 20.2 pts (27th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 8.2 pts (15th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 62.5 (22nd), RunD = 50.9 (28th), PassRsh = 75.5 (6th), Cov = 59 (24th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - At HOU, home vs SEA, home vs MIA, at IND, home vs KC, home vs SF, at LAR, at DET, home vs NE

Cardinals - Similar to the Cowboys, the Cardinals are hampered by one of the worst defenses in the league. With the last two blowout losses, ¾ of the game recaps has been watching the defense get eviscerated by opposing offenses. However, unlike Dallas, Arizona has a competent run game with one of the must underrated RBs in football, James Conner. Led by Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride, the Cardinals should have one of the best air raids in the league. But through scheme, QB chemistry, or poor coaching, the Cardinals haven’t been anywhere close to the air show we expected.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.45 (22nd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 68.8 (13th), RunBlk = 68.1 (11th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Kyler Murray = 76.1 (9th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 71.8 (20th), (Courtesy PFF)

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 18.3 pts (24th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Receiving Rating - 74.4 (6th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 24.2 pts (21st), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 8.9 pts (10th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 54.7 (30th), RunD = 59.9 (18th), PassRsh = 54.4 (30th), Cov = 50.6 (28th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - At SF, at GB, home vs LAC, at MIA, home vs CHI, home vs NYJ, at SEA, at MIN, home vs SEA

Rams - The Los Angeles Rams are the ultimate “what could have been” team of 2024. Not since the Red Wedding has there been a more heartbreaking loss to a team than what the Rams have suffered with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. Tutu Atwell and Jordan Whittington have done their best to fill in, but are a far cry from the talents of their injured teammates. Compounding these backbreakers have been injuries and poor play from the offensive line, giving Stafford a nearly impossible hill to climb. Picking up from where he left off last season, Kyren Williams has been the lone bright spot so far this year. As a dual-threat RB, Kyren can be utilized on offense no matter the game script, making him one of the most valuable RBs in fantasy. With a talented Blake Corum still waiting in the wings for his shot, we fully expect to see the McVay-led Rams join the Superpowers once Puka and Kupp return.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.58 (3rd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 39.6 (32nd), RunBlk = 65.1 (14th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Matthew Stafford = 59.8 (31st), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 74.6 (17th), (Courtesy PFF)

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 21.9 pts (5th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Receiving Rating - 73.9 (7th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 32.1 pts (6th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 6.3 pts (26th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 58.6 (26th), RunD = 60.8 (16th), PassRsh = 68.9 (14th), Cov = 48.3 (29th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - Home vs GB, home vs LV, home vs MIN, at SEA, home vs MIA, at NE, home vs PHI, at NO, home vs BUF

Ravens - Derrick Henry in purple and black is the most beautiful thing we’ve seen in Baltimore since the days of Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. At 30 years old, the immortal King could have the best season of his Hall of Fame career. The two-time MVP Lamar Jackson is playing lights out as one of the greatest QBs we have ever seen. So why isn’t this team ranked amongst the Superpowers? The passing attack for Baltimore has been nonexistent through the first quarter of the season, rendering Zay Flowers as an upside FLEX option. In strong contention for the most disappointing healthy player in 2024 is Mark Andrews. His 6/9 for 65 scoreless yards through four games is criminal. Isaiah Likely may be the Ravens TE of the future, but what does it matter?

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.35 (32nd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 78.1 (3rd), RunBlk = 76.3 (3rd), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Lamar Jackson = 79 (6th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 88.8 (2nd), (Courtesy PFF)

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 22.9 pts (4th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Receiving Rating - 69.2 (16th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 17 pts (31st), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 9.7 pts (6th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 72.8 (6th-tied), RunD = 75.5 (3rd), PassRsh = 71.4 (10th), Cov = 67.2 (15th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - Home vs CIN, home vs WAS, at TB, home vs CLE, at DEN, at CIN, home vs PIT, at LAC, home vs PHI

Works Cited

PFF
NFL Week 4 Recap - Fantasy Usage Model by Hayden Winks

https://underdognetwork.com/football/analysis/nfl-week-4-recap-fantasy-usage-model-2024

The Dossier

Image created by DK

Matty Kiwoom 10/3/24 Matty Kiwoom 10/3/24

Week 5 RANKINGS: Bye weeks are here

In a blink of an eye, the fantasy football season is four games into the 2024 NFL season. It is tough to believe but teams are starting their byes this week. Not only are our fantasy squads down players due to injuries but now it is time to start worrying about filling these players on their vacation week. Luckily there are a slew of matchups that project to provide fantasy managers with a bunch of scoring. Buffalo versus Houston, Green Bay versus LA, Baltimore versus Cincy, Zona versus the Niners, even Jacksonville versus Indy all have over 45 point over/unders. Let’s take a peek into my rankings for this week. They are live right now so go click on weekly rankings under the rankings tab on the South Harmon website to see ALL OF MY WEEK 5 RANKS.

Bye Week Fillers

A number of key members of fantasy teams are M.I.A. this week due to byes. Teams are scrambling to find replacements for players like Amon-Ra St. Brown, Saquon Barkley, Tony Pollard, and way more. Quick, go check to see if players like Josh Downs, Trey Sermon, Dontayvion Wicks, or Antonio Gibson are available. Sermon and Gibson are ranked inside my top 35 at running back. Downs and Wicks have settled comfortably inside the WR 3/Flex conversation. Both guys can be used this week to fill in some of the fantasy football gaps left by the first wave of byes.

Trust These Players

Kenneth Walker III, Justin Fields, Travis Kelce, and D’Andre Swift are a few players that posted good numbers in Week 4 but can they be trusted in Week 5? Here is a snapshot of where I have some of the kings from Week 4:

Kenneth Walker III - RB 7
D’Andre Swift - RB 14
Travis Kelce - TE 2
Justin Fields - QB 12
Jordan Addison - WR 27
Josh Downs - WR 31

Crash and Burn

It’s always important to make the correct lineup decisions to get wins in fantasy football but those decisions become even more difficult when the byes are happening. Rhamondre Stevenson has already put the ball on the ground four times this season and the Patriots are contemplating starting Antonio Gibson because of it. There has been a large gap between the two backs but this week that gap has narrowed. Mondre comes in at RB 26 while Gibson is only a handful of spots behind. Kyle Pitts can no longer be looked at as a top 10 option at tight end. After a BIG goose egg in Week 4, he came in at TE 14 heading into TNF. He’s big and was brought in to be Josh Allen’s number one receiver but it just ain’t happening yet. Keon Coleman cannot be trusted and will be outside my top 50 until things change. Starting these players will cause your Week 5 lineup to crash and burn.

Check out the entire Week 5 positional ranks on South Harmon dot com to help make even the toughest of lineup decisions.

Matty Kiwoom 10/2/24 Matty Kiwoom 10/2/24

FANTASY FOOTBALL TRADE ADVICE: WEEK 5 BUY & SELL

We are four games into the NFL season and it already feels like so much has happened. We’ve seen injuries, benchings, and role changes and it’s just getting started. Fantasy football teams are already starting to get an idea whether a championship is realistic or not. The preverbal fantasy fork in the road is rapidly approaching and it’s time to start planning for a playoff run or start setting sights onto 2025 and beyond. Regardless of what teams have in store going forward, here are the week’s buy and sell targets.

Buy

Jayden Reed

Adding pieces from the Green Bay Packer offense seems like good business at the moment. Four games in and the Packers have put up the third most total yards per game, seventh most points per game, and the seventh most passing yards per game despite Jordan Love missing two games. Atop the Packers wish list has to be Jayden Reed. He is currently the WR 4 in fantasy and has been super productive for Green Bay. Out of all wide receivers that have run at least 75 routes, Reed has the fourth highest yards per route run and the sixth highest yards after catch. Fantasy football market indicators have Reed as a wide receiver two but WoRP (wins over replacement player) listed him as a top five wide receiver and a top 10 player overall. There is still a gap between the value of Jayden Reed versus the perceived market value which is why the time to buy the Packer is NOW.

Who to trade away

Buying is not always about getting players for cheap prices. Sometimes it is about adding a player before his value skyrockets. Reed falls into that category. Trading for him will cost a running back two and a wide receiver two or three from a squad but it will be worth it. Players in the Christian Kirk or Calvin Ridley range plus James Conner or Rhamondre Stevenson seems like the current price and fantasy managers should be more than excited to make that move. Dynasty gamers can pony up a mid-late first for Reed and sleep easy at night. Don’t be like Jerry Jones and let your procrastination cause you to pay max prices.

Sell

Kyle Pitts

Fantasy managers are always looking to add and roster special talents because special talents lead to fantasy championships. But special talents can also break your heart when their talent doesn't convert to fantasy points. That has been the case for Kyle Pitts for a majority of his career. Fantasy markets continue to value Pitts as a top five or six tight end but once again finds himself outside of the top 12. After recording ZERO receptions on just three targets in Week 4, Kyle Pitts now finds himself as the fifth option on the Falcons passing hierarchy. Using WoRP, it's easy to see that Pitts has been as replaceable as players like Allen Lazard, Tre Tucker, and Alexander Mattison. Sometimes it is best to use the fantasy landscape to an advantage. The tight ends in fantasy have collectively sucked. Before any leaguemates realize that Pitts is so easy to replace, move him for a decent return.

Who to trade for

According to fantasy market indicators, Pitts can still be sold for a player like Davante Adams, Terry McLaurin, and Cooper Kupp. All players come with risk but are more likely to contribute to a winning starting lineup on a weekly basis. Tiering down is an option because fantasy managers can look pretty low on the tight end rankings and not lose more value according to WoRP. Nobody has to be like the musicians on the Titanic going down with the ship. Trade away Kyle Pitts away while the market still believes in the “unicorn.”

We are just through Week 4 but it is NOT too early to start making deals in fantasy. Slow and steady is for the NFL executives and the folks who don’t want to win their league. Doesn’t matter whether fantasy managers are looking to buy or sell, now is the time to act and show the team that you mean business. There is exactly ZERO research that backs this up but it feels true. Whenever fantasy managers believe in their team, show the team that they’re all in…the squad reciprocates the love via fantasy production. Stay trading my friends…

T-Rock 9/30/24 T-Rock 9/30/24

Week 5 Waiver Targets

Waiver Targets

ReDraft (most of these players will be rostered in Dynasty leagues)

Dontayvion Wicks - 18% rostership, 15-18% FAAB (Erupted in wk 4 - 5/13 for 78 yds & 2 TDs. With Watson injured, Wicks can explode any given week on this high-flying offense with Love at QB.)
Josh Downs - 28% rostership, 12-15% FAAB (Downs was a key factor in the Colts' upset win over the Steelers. Hauling in 8/9 for 82 yds & 1 TD, we believe Downs is just getting started with JT now injured.)
Chase Brown - 57% rostership, 12-15% FAAB (We were wrong to advocate dropping him, but we blame the Bengals for waiting until wk 4 to utilize the explosive RB finally.)
Tre Tucker - 19% rostership, 10-12% FAAB in Best Ball (Was under consideration last week, but now we have seen enough to recommend picking up the speedy WR. He should continue to produce as the big-play WR while Adams recovers from injury.)
Trey Sermon - 4% rostership, spend 2-3% FAAB (This is a tricky situation: ARich can’t pass, JT is hurt, & Sermon isn’t that great of an RB. Perhaps it's best to target these other waivers.)

Dynasty

Jeremy McNichols - 3% rostership, 8-10% FAAB in Best Ball only (Absolutely smashed filling in for Ekeler - 8 carries for 68 yds, 2 TDs. An explosive RB on one of the best rushing offenses is worth a pick-up.)
Dare Ogunbowale - 11% rostership, 5-8% FAAB (Akers hasn’t done much filling in for Mixon the last 2 weeks. Pick up Dare for his receiving upside.)
Justin Watson - 13% rostership, 3-5% FAAB (Watson is a downfield WR who thrives on splash plays during critical downs. Despite the injury to Rice, do not expect a major uptick for Watson.)
Mecole Hardman/Skyy Moore/JuJu Smith-Schuster - 13-35% rostership, 0-1% FAAB (All these WRs could be total cones at this point in their careers, but at the rate the Chiefs are losing cornerstones of their offense, we fully expect Travis Kelce & Carson Steele to be the TE1 & RB1 from here on out.)

Expendable

Cut loose the following players before they compromise their rosters:

ReDraft

Kirk Cousins - 41% rostership (The most underrated QB in the league does not look like a good fit for this Atlanta team. Keep him if you have no other choice.)
Tyjae Spears - 65% rostership (Pollard has taken over the backfield for a Titans’ offense with zero upside.)
Ezekiel Elliott - 64% rostership (From 51% snap share in wk 1 to 18% in wk 4, Elliott and the Cowboys' run game looks completely cooked.)

The Dossier

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Matty Kiwoom 9/26/24 Matty Kiwoom 9/26/24

Week 4 RANKINGS: BREAKOUT CANDIDATES

Here we go, welcome to Week 4 of the NFL season. The fantasy world witnessed some big time fantasy weeks by players NO ONE was expecting. Will Week 4 have the same magic? The over/under projections suggest that the prime time slate will be very exciting. Buffalo versus Baltimore and Seattle versus Detroit are projected to shoot out. There are a handful of divisional matchups which always have the potential to display some fireworks. Let’s take a peek into my rankings for this week. They are live right now so go click on weekly rankings under the rankings tab on the South Harmon website to see ALL OF MY WEEK 4 RANKS.

Breakout Candidates

The 2023 Rookie of the Year, CJ Stroud hasn’t had a big fantasy day so far this season. That changes in Week 4 when the Texans take on the Jacksonville Jaguars and their swiss cheese secondary. Stroud destroyed the cats last year and that is why he is the quarterback six in my Week 4 rankings. Brandon Aiyuk hasn’t quite shaken off the rust caused by holding out but he is poised for a BIG Week 4 versus the Patriots. He saw ten targets last week but only hauled in five. Aiyuk is too talented to dud again with that kind of volume. Expect BA to finish as a top 15 wide receiver this week. Najee Harris hasn’t had a performance that warrants a top 20 RB ranking but he’s getting the volume and his matchup is juicy in Week 4 so his breakout performance in 2024 may happen sooner rather than later.

DUDS

I can admit when I’m wrong. I’m only human, I don’t always make the right call. Coming into the season I had some high hopes for Trevor Lawrence. After three straight dud performances this year, T-Law plummeted down my Week 4 rankings. Get it together Sunshine! Sometimes it is wild how quickly things will tilt in fantasy football. Quentin Johnston isn’t useless two weeks in a row and all of a sudden he’s not the bust that he’s been. I’m still not convinced so he falls outside of my top 50 at wide receiver. Heading into the season Zamir White was slated to be a lock to be an RB 2 in fantasy. Three straight weeks he has been a total bust. Alexander Mattison is getting the passing work AND the goal line touches. Twenty-two rushes for 89 yards ain’t gonna cut it. Expect another sub top 35 performance.

Week 4 SLEEPERS

Can you really call a player that has put together multiple seasons of high end production a sleeper? I guess when he’s still massively under-rostered I can. Zach Ertz has seen four or more targets every game this season. As Jayden Daniels continues to improve, Ertz will be right there with him and that is why he is a top ten tight end this week. Get him on your roster ASAP. Emanuel Wilson has been hyper efficient this season. He continues to show that he doesn’t need volume to produce but the funny thing is that when players continue to produce they see more volume. Not generally rostered, Wilson can be picked up and expected to be a top 35 RB.

Check out the entire Week 4 positional ranks on South Harmon dot com to help make even the toughest of lineup decisions.

Matty Kiwoom 9/25/24 Matty Kiwoom 9/25/24

fantasy football trade advice: week 4 buy & sell

Week 3 is in the books and the fantasy football world is on fire. Jayden Daniels, Malik Nabers, Marvin Harrison are putting up massive fantasy weeks as rookies. Even Caleb Williams put up decent fantasy numbers. Waiver wire priorities like Jauan Jennings and Andy Dalton went absolutely nuclear. Just as we predicted, fantasy football is anything but predictable. We are all in the fantasy trenches and it’s time to start adding bullets to win these battles. Here are the weekly BUY and SELL for the 3-0 squads, the 0-3 squads and everything else in between.

Buy

Najee Harris

Risk is defined as a situation involving exposure to danger. Buying Najee Harris is a risk but as the wiseman says…”you gotta risk it, to get the biscuit.” The Steelers running back is unequivocally worth the risk and investment. The elephant in the room is the supposed arm injury but without any information it doesn’t sound serious. Three games in, Harris is dominating running back opportunities and there are positive indicators in his underlying metrics. His 1.3 rushes of 15+ MPH is up from last year and his 4.3 xYPC is a career best. Pittsburgh's offensive line hasn’t been as bad as perceived either. They have a top 12 run blocking unit according to PFF. The Steelers play the Colts, the Cowboys, and the Raiders over their next three games. Now is the right time to get Harris and don’t forget to add Najee insurance aka Cordarelle Patterson on waivers.

Who to trade away

The price tag to acquire Najee Harris is cheap which presents a very nice opportunity to buy into the tailback. His value has plummeted to a point where a combination of bench pieces will get a deal done. Putting together a package of players like Jerry Jeudy, Javonte Williams, Tyjae Spears or selling high on a Quentin Johnston will get teams a running back capable of being a consistent RB 2 rest of season. For the fantasy football teams that are desperate for wins in the next few weeks, Harris can be a savior given his soft matchups coming up. Buying low is a pillar of success in fantasy football for a reason.

Sell

Patrick Mahomes

It must be said, Patrick Mahomes is the most valuable player in football. He is the clear cut 1.01 if the league went nutty and held its own fantasy draft. BUT in the fantasy football universe, Mahomes has become pretty dang replaceable. It’s early but his WoRP is in the same tier as quarterbacks like Brock Burdy, Sam Darnold, and Derek Carr. Dating back to the Chiefs 2023 bye week which is ten games, Mahomes has averaged 18.5 fantasy points per game. The Kansas City offense has become very conservative. They pass the ball just 53-percent of the time and the passing attack ranks in the middle of the league. This formula flat out stinks for fantasy football but man is it good for winning NFL football games. The Chiefs are 7-4 since that Week 2023 bye and won another Super Bowl. Mahomes is in the winning championship business not the fantasy football business.

Who to trade for

Trading quarterbacks can vary so much depending on format. Obviously in 2 QB leagues, they are gold and typically come in the form of blockbusters. Ask for moon and stars in the sky Boyz II Men style when selling Mahomes in multi QB. Dealing signal callers in single quarterback leagues can be very tricky. Taking the tiering down approach made famous but the great and powerful Mike McNutted is the way to go here. Trading Mahomes for Aaron Rodgers, Sam Darnold, or Baker Mayfield as well as a running back or wide receiver that will make the starting lineup is a trade that your league will hate on but will return big time value this season. Scared money don’t make money homey.

See you next week!

We are just through Week 3 but it is NOT too early to start making deals in fantasy. Slow and steady is for the NFL executives and the folks who don’t want to win their league. Doesn’t matter whether fantasy managers are looking to buy or sell, now is the time to act and show the team that you mean business. There is exactly ZERO research that backs this up but it feels true. Whenever fantasy managers believe in their team, show the team that they’re all in…the squad reciprocates the love via fantasy production. Stay trading my friends…