fantasy football trade advice: week 4 buy & sell
Week 3 is in the books and the fantasy football world is on fire. Jayden Daniels, Malik Nabers, Marvin Harrison are putting up massive fantasy weeks as rookies. Even Caleb Williams put up decent fantasy numbers. Waiver wire priorities like Jauan Jennings and Andy Dalton went absolutely nuclear. Just as we predicted, fantasy football is anything but predictable. We are all in the fantasy trenches and it’s time to start adding bullets to win these battles. Here are the weekly BUY and SELL for the 3-0 squads, the 0-3 squads and everything else in between.
Buy
Najee Harris
Risk is defined as a situation involving exposure to danger. Buying Najee Harris is a risk but as the wiseman says…”you gotta risk it, to get the biscuit.” The Steelers running back is unequivocally worth the risk and investment. The elephant in the room is the supposed arm injury but without any information it doesn’t sound serious. Three games in, Harris is dominating running back opportunities and there are positive indicators in his underlying metrics. His 1.3 rushes of 15+ MPH is up from last year and his 4.3 xYPC is a career best. Pittsburgh's offensive line hasn’t been as bad as perceived either. They have a top 12 run blocking unit according to PFF. The Steelers play the Colts, the Cowboys, and the Raiders over their next three games. Now is the right time to get Harris and don’t forget to add Najee insurance aka Cordarelle Patterson on waivers.
Who to trade away
The price tag to acquire Najee Harris is cheap which presents a very nice opportunity to buy into the tailback. His value has plummeted to a point where a combination of bench pieces will get a deal done. Putting together a package of players like Jerry Jeudy, Javonte Williams, Tyjae Spears or selling high on a Quentin Johnston will get teams a running back capable of being a consistent RB 2 rest of season. For the fantasy football teams that are desperate for wins in the next few weeks, Harris can be a savior given his soft matchups coming up. Buying low is a pillar of success in fantasy football for a reason.
Sell
Patrick Mahomes
It must be said, Patrick Mahomes is the most valuable player in football. He is the clear cut 1.01 if the league went nutty and held its own fantasy draft. BUT in the fantasy football universe, Mahomes has become pretty dang replaceable. It’s early but his WoRP is in the same tier as quarterbacks like Brock Burdy, Sam Darnold, and Derek Carr. Dating back to the Chiefs 2023 bye week which is ten games, Mahomes has averaged 18.5 fantasy points per game. The Kansas City offense has become very conservative. They pass the ball just 53-percent of the time and the passing attack ranks in the middle of the league. This formula flat out stinks for fantasy football but man is it good for winning NFL football games. The Chiefs are 7-4 since that Week 2023 bye and won another Super Bowl. Mahomes is in the winning championship business not the fantasy football business.
Who to trade for
Trading quarterbacks can vary so much depending on format. Obviously in 2 QB leagues, they are gold and typically come in the form of blockbusters. Ask for moon and stars in the sky Boyz II Men style when selling Mahomes in multi QB. Dealing signal callers in single quarterback leagues can be very tricky. Taking the tiering down approach made famous but the great and powerful Mike McNutted is the way to go here. Trading Mahomes for Aaron Rodgers, Sam Darnold, or Baker Mayfield as well as a running back or wide receiver that will make the starting lineup is a trade that your league will hate on but will return big time value this season. Scared money don’t make money homey.
See you next week!
We are just through Week 3 but it is NOT too early to start making deals in fantasy. Slow and steady is for the NFL executives and the folks who don’t want to win their league. Doesn’t matter whether fantasy managers are looking to buy or sell, now is the time to act and show the team that you mean business. There is exactly ZERO research that backs this up but it feels true. Whenever fantasy managers believe in their team, show the team that they’re all in…the squad reciprocates the love via fantasy production. Stay trading my friends…