FANTASY FOOTBALL TRADE ADVICE: WEEK 5 BUY & SELL
We are four games into the NFL season and it already feels like so much has happened. We’ve seen injuries, benchings, and role changes and it’s just getting started. Fantasy football teams are already starting to get an idea whether a championship is realistic or not. The preverbal fantasy fork in the road is rapidly approaching and it’s time to start planning for a playoff run or start setting sights onto 2025 and beyond. Regardless of what teams have in store going forward, here are the week’s buy and sell targets.
Buy
Jayden Reed
Adding pieces from the Green Bay Packer offense seems like good business at the moment. Four games in and the Packers have put up the third most total yards per game, seventh most points per game, and the seventh most passing yards per game despite Jordan Love missing two games. Atop the Packers wish list has to be Jayden Reed. He is currently the WR 4 in fantasy and has been super productive for Green Bay. Out of all wide receivers that have run at least 75 routes, Reed has the fourth highest yards per route run and the sixth highest yards after catch. Fantasy football market indicators have Reed as a wide receiver two but WoRP (wins over replacement player) listed him as a top five wide receiver and a top 10 player overall. There is still a gap between the value of Jayden Reed versus the perceived market value which is why the time to buy the Packer is NOW.
Who to trade away
Buying is not always about getting players for cheap prices. Sometimes it is about adding a player before his value skyrockets. Reed falls into that category. Trading for him will cost a running back two and a wide receiver two or three from a squad but it will be worth it. Players in the Christian Kirk or Calvin Ridley range plus James Conner or Rhamondre Stevenson seems like the current price and fantasy managers should be more than excited to make that move. Dynasty gamers can pony up a mid-late first for Reed and sleep easy at night. Don’t be like Jerry Jones and let your procrastination cause you to pay max prices.
Sell
Kyle Pitts
Fantasy managers are always looking to add and roster special talents because special talents lead to fantasy championships. But special talents can also break your heart when their talent doesn't convert to fantasy points. That has been the case for Kyle Pitts for a majority of his career. Fantasy markets continue to value Pitts as a top five or six tight end but once again finds himself outside of the top 12. After recording ZERO receptions on just three targets in Week 4, Kyle Pitts now finds himself as the fifth option on the Falcons passing hierarchy. Using WoRP, it's easy to see that Pitts has been as replaceable as players like Allen Lazard, Tre Tucker, and Alexander Mattison. Sometimes it is best to use the fantasy landscape to an advantage. The tight ends in fantasy have collectively sucked. Before any leaguemates realize that Pitts is so easy to replace, move him for a decent return.
Who to trade for
According to fantasy market indicators, Pitts can still be sold for a player like Davante Adams, Terry McLaurin, and Cooper Kupp. All players come with risk but are more likely to contribute to a winning starting lineup on a weekly basis. Tiering down is an option because fantasy managers can look pretty low on the tight end rankings and not lose more value according to WoRP. Nobody has to be like the musicians on the Titanic going down with the ship. Trade away Kyle Pitts away while the market still believes in the “unicorn.”
We are just through Week 4 but it is NOT too early to start making deals in fantasy. Slow and steady is for the NFL executives and the folks who don’t want to win their league. Doesn’t matter whether fantasy managers are looking to buy or sell, now is the time to act and show the team that you mean business. There is exactly ZERO research that backs this up but it feels true. Whenever fantasy managers believe in their team, show the team that they’re all in…the squad reciprocates the love via fantasy production. Stay trading my friends…