WEEK 6 RANKINGS: MVP MAtchup

Folks…we are in the thick of the fantasy football trenches. Every fantasy team is dealing with players busting, getting hurt or going on a one week vacation.  Now is such an important time of the fantasy season because these next few matchups will dictate whether teams make the playoffs or not. Fantasy managers are tasked with tough start/sit decisions and are in need of replacements. Week 6 has some big time projected scoring matchups and some not so exciting for fantasy football. My Week 6 rankings are OUT NOW so let me dive into some of the most interesting and exciting ranks for the upcoming NFL slate. 

Good Matchups

Two matchups stick out like a Corvette at a trailer park. Both the Cowboys versus the Lions and Baltimore versus Washington matchup have an over/under higher than 50! These games are like a block party…everyone is invited. All four quarterbacks are nestled inside my top 10. CeeDee Lamb and Amon-Ra St. Brown is in a position to break fantasy scoring systems and Sam LaPorta should not be doubted. I have ranked him higher than consensus because of the potential offensive atmosphere. The Commanders playing the Ravens is a football matchup made in heaven. Two of the most exciting quarterbacks in the sport class in a battle that has the second highest projection on the slate. Just like LaPorta, Mark Andrews should be started with the confidence of a top 10 tight end. There are a number of streaming and replacement options in these matchups like Jalen Tolbert and Rashod Bateman are in flex consideration and Zach Ertz can be streamed at tight end. Please football heavens, allow these games to go over.

Bad Matchups

Monday Night Football is a clash of AFC North opponents and I do not love the projected game script. The Bills and Jets have an over/under hardly over 40 points. The great and powerful Josh Allen fell outside my top 5 for the first time this season. His tight end, Dalton Kincaid, is outside of the top 10 tight ends. The lowest projected total is the Chargers versus Broncos matchup. JK Dobbins and Courtland Sutton are still playable but I am more nervous about them than consensus which are reflected in the Week 6 rankings. In a matter of moments the Patriots versus Texans matchup which has a sub 40 point over/under, has some intrigue. Drake Maye is not the starter and my QB 24 and Stefon Diggs is my WR 3 with Nico Collins on the IR. 

Week 6 Sleepers

Don’t look now but Daniel Jones is a top 15 quarterback and has already racked up three top 12 finishes. This week he is a streamer consideration given the solid play and projected matchup on Sunday Night Football. The Giants take on the Bengals in a matchup that has an over/under pushing 50. Caleb Williams is still available in shallower leagues and a big Week 6 is on the table. The Bears play the Jags in London and Jacksonville has been a launching pad for opposing quarterbacks and Williams is another three away from playing with a ball on fire (NBA Jam reference). Romeo Doubs has been dropped in many leagues but he should bounce back in Week 6. The Packers could be in a shootout with the Cardinals and he has already been reinstated from his team issued suspension. 

Check out the entire Week 6 positional ranks on South Harmon dot com to help make even the toughest of lineup and replacement decisions.

FANTASY FOOTBALL TRADE ADVICE: WEEK 6 BUY & SELL

Are we having fun yet? Week 5 is over and done and some of the biggest matchups of the entire season are coming up. The difference between winning and losing over the course of the next month will dictate whether we are playoff bound or on the outside looking in. So this week I am going to take a slightly different approach to executing on the trade market. The buy and sell for this week will have short term ROI. This week’s buy and sell are for the fantasy managers that are either looking to save their season or book their ticket to the postseason. 

Buy

Stefon Diggs

The veteran wide receiver has been in Houston for five regular season games and he has already left a mark for both the Texans and the fantasy world. Stefon Diggs is currently WR 11 on a points per game basis and has the 14th highest WoRP in fantasy. He has been more valuable than CeeDee Lamb, Breece Hall, Bijan Robinson, and Marvin Harrison Jr so far this season. Diggs has found a role as CJ Stroud’s slot receiver and he has balled out. Running the fifth most slot snaps in the league he has been able to finish as a top 25 wideout in four of his first five games. Diggs has clearly locked himself in as the number two pass catcher in this offense and the alpha, Nico Collins, may be sidelined with a hamstring ailment. Houston’s next three games are against the Patriots, Packers, and Colts which are all great for Stefon Diggs. Buy now before the price continues to skyrocket.

Who to trade away

Acquiring a player who has played well can be done many ways but the best two are definitely tiering down or selling perceived upside. Using The Lab, there are two trades that have happened in my leagues that highlight a path to buying into Stef Diggs. Selling a wide receiver for DJ Moore, DK Metcalf or Chris Godwin for Diggs plus an RB 2 type of player. The other example was Zay Flowers for Diggs which may work better for teams that have their backs against the corner. 

Sell

Breece Hall

After starting strong, Breece Hall has scored just 10.5 PPR fantasy total over the last two games. The tailback is now a borderline top 24 player in WoRP. There are some negative indicators in his analytical profile. He’s not creating much or evading many tackles so far this season. Listen, Hall is very talented and should continue to be valued very highly but scared money don’t make money. He is a big ticket asset that will allow ‘win’ needy teams to shop in the luxury aisles. The Jets just fired their head coach and their next three games will be against some of the toughest teams against the run. Between Braelon Allen snagging opportunities and the tough upcoming matchups, now is the time to cash in on Breece Hall. 

Who to trade for

Trading a player like Breece Hall will bring a return that could right the ship. Hall has the value to bring a lesser back and a starting wide receiver into the fold. Hall for Jonathan Taylor and Tee Higgins or Jayden Reed and De’Von Achane are both teams that have been executed recently in familiar trade markets. Fantasy managers with teams that don’t need multiple starters trade Breece Hall for another running back causing people to panic. Bijan Robinson. Robinson’s next month will be a lot easier than Hall’s but he is one of the only players that possess similar talent. Go shopping for top shelf items. 

We are just through Week 5 but it is NOT too early to start making deals in fantasy. Slow and steady is for the NFL executives and the folks who don’t want to win their league. Doesn’t matter whether fantasy managers are looking to buy or sell, now is the time to act and show the team that you mean business. There is exactly ZERO research that backs this up but it feels true. Whenever fantasy managers believe in their team, show the team that they’re all in…the squad reciprocates the love via fantasy production. Stay trading my friends…

Week 6 Waiver Targets

Waiver Targets

The South Harmon Agency has more high-tier operatives gathering intel than ever before. Be sure to keep your channel open and collect data from the various sources as it comes in. In terms of FAAB bidding, review your league’s previous waiver behavior to navigate the wire best. The waiver wire will become more bare as the season continues, especially in best ball formats.

ReDraft (most of these players will be rostered in Dynasty leagues)

• Tank Bigsby - 31% rostership, 20-25% FAAB in Best Ball (Was advocated as a pickup after wk 1. His 129 total yards & 2 TDs in wk 5 were a career-best, perhaps signaling a true 50/50 split moving forward on this dysfunctional offense.)

• Ty Chandler - 36% rostership, spend 18-20% FAAB (Aaron Jones suffered a hip injury with unknown severity in wk 5. Jones could be out several weeks at his age, and if Chandler performs well, then Jones won’t be rushed back for the undefeated franchise. The Vikings have a bye in wk 6, but you may not want to risk losing out on the potential RB1 in one of the best offenses in 2024.)

• Joe Flacco - 13% rostership, 15-18% FAAB (We may have a Pittsburgh/Green Bay situation, where the coach takes their time before rushing back the starting QB. Especially with how much better the offense has looked under Joe - 33/44, 359 yds, 3 TDs. Flacco is the perfect bye-wk QB if he is starting & worth a pickup if ARich were to pick up any further injuries.)

• Tyrone Tracy - 33% rostership, 10-12% FAAB (A dynasty favorite coming out of the draft for his unique profile as a WR converted RB. The rookie showcased his rushing ability while filling in for the injured Singletary. He exploded against a tough SEA defense with 129 rushing yards on 18 attempts. He is a FLEX-worthy option if Devin misses any further contests, but nothing more on an untrustworthy offense.)

• Colby Parkinson - 38% rostership, spend 8-10% FAAB (Close to setting career season highs after only 5 games, Colby has seen steady volume as one of the top pass catchers for a snakebit Rams team. With how awful the TE position has been, it would be worth stashing Colby ahead of their wk 6 bye.)

• Roschon Johnson - 32% rostership, spend 5-8% FAAB (The goalline back may not serve much more purpose than Swift’s TD vulture, but sometimes this is enough in fantasy as the pickings slim down.)

• Jaylen Wright - 20% rostership, spend 5-8% FAAB (Someone please check the Dolphins’ helmets for God’s sake. With Achane joining Tua in the maze, Jaylen Wright and Raheem Mostert stepped up to share the backfield in wk. 5. Wright played efficiently with 13 attempts for 86 yds. Miami has wk. 6 bye week, giving Achane 2 weeks to come back, but with how bad things have been in Miami, we wouldn’t be surprised to see the coach hold out Achane until Tua returns in wk. 8. Achane & Mostert are injury-prone, making Wright a worthwhile pickup for the ROS.)

• Ray-Ray McCloud - 10% rostership, 0-1% FAAB (A top 50 WR for 4/5 weeks, Ray-Ray had his best game in wk. 5 with 6/9 for 66 yds. The Falcons are a frustrating offense, but with Cousins averaging 274 yds a game (tied-5th in NFL), McCloud could be a decent option if needed.)

Dynasty

• Jalen Coker - 17% rostership, 8-10% FAAB in Best Ball only (A UDFA out of Holy Cross, the 6’3” 213 lb WR got the attention of Steve Smith Sr. during the Draft process and became a dynasty stash. With an injury to Legette, Coker made the most of his opportunity by going 4/4 for 68 yds. It is not often UDFAs out of small schools can make their way into a 53% snap share during their rookie season, but he has talent and Steve Smith’s interest, and that’s enough to put in a waiver.)

• Charlie Kolar - 2% rostership, 0-1% FAAB in Best Ball (It started with Likely, but now it seems that Charlie Kolar will be a major beneficiary of the Mark Andrews downfall. In all seriousness, Kolar is only worth an add in Best Ball leagues if you have someone on your bench that you can drop because they are Practice Team player.)

The Dossier

Image created by DK

Check out the latest from South Harmon

Videos: https://www.youtube.com/@SouthHarmonFF/videos

Podcasts: https://open.spotify.com/show/4DRA34XipOMfw4vNi1VITC

WK 4 - Besieged Powers

Good Franchises That Could Be Great in 2024

The Force is with you, young Skywalker. But you are not a Jedi yet.
Darth Vader - Star Wars: Episode V - The Empire Strikes Back

Image created by T-Rock

Logjammin’ 

I know why you are here. You’re craving a compelling story with high production value. You also appreciate an emotional connection, delivered through clever literary structures and thought-provoking themes.

“Fuck that! How much should I bid on Kareem Hunt!?” shouts the crowd from the Mutantverse. “Why don’t the Colts make Joe Flacco the starter??? Have they seen ARich pass the ball?!”

Regrettably, the standards have fallen with the written medium while competing with YouTube. The market has clarified that anything more than “buy, sell, sit, start, and rankings” wastes the audience’s time. Advancements in analytics and tools equip fantasy players to compete unlike ever before. But does access to technology and content lead to more championships for managers? 

Yes and no. Having well-researched information from trusted sources can help players make better decisions. But we are an over-stimulated culture, over-burdened with anxiety, and incapable of patience. We can find this same experience in many other aspects of our culture. Take, for instance, the adult entertainment industry. 

Due in part to the ease of access and proliferation of explicit content, the average male lasts less than five minutes in bed and is often left with a profound sense of fatigue and a feeling of emptiness (not that I would know). Some subjects have described this sensation as “a loss of essence.” This phenomenon is strikingly similar to what Fantasy Psychologists have coined “Post-Trade Clarity.” Fantasy addicts, often referred to as “degenerates,” on average consume 2-4 hours of fantasy content per day, leading to idealized and usually unrealistic standards for their rosters. Now with a picture in mind of what a “successful” roster construction looks like, degenerates become obsessed with improving their team, frequently spending hours that stretch late into the early morning hunting for the perfect trade. Sadly, there are detrimental effects to this type of behavior, including but not limited to: 

• Pathological Trading: Managers who believe their own lies regarding player valuations in order to be more convincing salesmen in trade talks. 

• KTC Dissociation: The inability to separate KTC’s Trade Calculator values from reality. 

• Contending Impostorism: Belief that your team is championship caliber despite being outside the top three in scoring.

• Asset Hoarding Disorder: A strong emotional attachment to players that skews their market value, often leading to unrealistic prices and holding players far past their sell windows.

These conditions, shortness of QBs in superflex leagues, Post Injury Stress Disorder, and many other symptoms have become pervasive in fantasy football. As someone who has lived with these plights for nearly twenty years, I recognize that acknowledging the issues is the first step in treatment. I have a long road to recovery.

SITREP - Besieged Powers

The following teams are often good, and occasionally great. However, similar to me regarding math problems and women in school, these franchises need help. They haven’t cracked the code yet to operate as a cohesive ensemble, and instead revolve their offense around one or two players. Overall, they haven't reached their full potential and are lacking consistency. With that said, these offenses still showcase some of the best players in the entire league, and it will be only a matter of time for some of these teams to ramp up and join the Superpowers.

Chiefs - Beginning with the positives, Steve Spagnuolo doesn’t get nearly enough recognition as one of the best DCs in the NFL. His coaching, along with Andy Reid and Mahomes, is a major reason the Chiefs can even come close to creating a dyasty. Unfortunately, the same can not be said of Matt Nagy as the OC. Since replacing Eric Bieniemy, Mahomes’ fantasy production has dropped dramatically (8th in 2023, 16th in 2024). Mahomes was a top 4 fantasy QB in 4/5 years under Bieniemy. Funneling the entire offense through Rashee Rice and Isiah Pacheco was only great for Rice and Pacheco owners until they were lost to injury. Watching Mahomes, it is clear he is still the best QB in the NFL. Trading for the QB now in hopes of an OC change next season is a no-brainer move, but still remains difficult. Managers don’t want to trade for the depressed production, and owners don’t want to trade at any discount. It remains to be seen if Travis Kelce and Kareem Hunt have aged like fine wine or will play like piss and vineagar.   

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.51 (11th in NFL), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 67.5 (17th), RunBlk = 68.2 (10th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Patrick Mahomes = 70.7 (16th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 77.5 (13th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 21.6 pts (9th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 69.1 (17th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 19.5 pts (28th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 10 pts (5th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 69.3 (14th), RunD = 67.2 (9th), PassRsh = 74.1 (7th), Cov = 62.1 (21st), (Courtesy PFF) 

Upcoming Schedule - Home vs NO, at SF, at LV, home vs TB, home vs DEN, at BUF, at CAR, home vs LV, home vs LAC  

Cowboys - The Cowboys are a great example of how having the WORST defense in the league can cripple an offense. At 29th in time of possession, and one of the worst run games in the league, Dallas becomes pigeonholed on offense. With an offensive line that has taken a huge step back since last year, defenses can pin their ears back and dial up blitzes all game long. Dak has played well despite the team’s deficiencies, including as a top-10 passer when facing pressure and the blitz. The Cowboys are one of the few teams that took a glaring step back during the offseason and it's showing up now.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.55 (5th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 63.5 (21st), RunBlk = 58.7 (24th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Dak Prescott = 64.5 (25th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 67.2 (25th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 16.8 pts (29th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 66.6 (19th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 30.3 pts (8th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 9.6 pts (7th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 52 (32nd), RunD = 37.7 (32nd), PassRsh = 65 (21st), Cov = 59.2 (23rd), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - At PIT, home vs DET, at SF, at ATL, home vs PHI, home vs HOU, at WAS, home vs NYG, home vs CIN  

Bills - No QB is playing better than Josh Allen. With a rag-tag group of slot receivers and a defense that lost a lot of players to free agency, many predicted a rough 2024 for the Bills. A lot of props need to be given to the defensive coaches for developing their young talent, and a lot more kudos to Joe Brady’s work with the offense and James Cook. Not much should be made of the complete dismantling by Baltimore; the Ravens are going to expose a lot of teams with Derrick Henry.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.52 (9th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 71.6 (9th), RunBlk = 59.3 (22nd), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Josh Allen = 72.6 (14th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 86.3 (4th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 19.3 pts (18th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 69.4 (15th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 20.2 pts (27th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 8.2 pts (15th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 62.5 (22nd), RunD = 50.9 (28th), PassRsh = 75.5 (6th), Cov = 59 (24th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - At HOU, home vs SEA, home vs MIA, at IND, home vs KC, home vs SF, at LAR, at DET, home vs NE  

Cardinals - Similar to the Cowboys, the Cardinals are hampered by one of the worst defenses in the league. With the last two blowout losses, ¾ of the game recaps has been watching the defense get eviscerated by opposing offenses. However, unlike Dallas, Arizona has a competent run game with one of the must underrated RBs in football, James Conner. Led by Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride, the Cardinals should have one of the best air raids in the league. But through scheme, QB chemistry, or poor coaching, the Cardinals haven’t been anywhere close to the air show we expected.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.45 (22nd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 68.8 (13th), RunBlk = 68.1 (11th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Kyler Murray = 76.1 (9th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 71.8 (20th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 18.3 pts (24th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 74.4 (6th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 24.2 pts (21st), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 8.9 pts (10th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 54.7 (30th), RunD = 59.9 (18th), PassRsh = 54.4 (30th), Cov = 50.6 (28th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - At SF, at GB, home vs LAC, at MIA, home vs CHI, home vs NYJ, at SEA, at MIN, home vs SEA    

Rams - The Los Angeles Rams are the ultimate “what could have been” team of 2024. Not since the Red Wedding has there been a more heartbreaking loss to a team than what the Rams have suffered with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. Tutu Atwell and Jordan Whittington have done their best to fill in, but are a far cry from the talents of their injured teammates. Compounding these backbreakers have been injuries and poor play from the offensive line, giving Stafford a nearly impossible hill to climb. Picking up from where he left off last season, Kyren Williams has been the lone bright spot so far this year. As a dual-threat RB, Kyren can be utilized on offense no matter the game script, making him one of the most valuable RBs in fantasy. With a talented Blake Corum still waiting in the wings for his shot, we fully expect to see the McVay-led Rams join the Superpowers once Puka and Kupp return. 

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.58 (3rd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 39.6 (32nd), RunBlk = 65.1 (14th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Matthew Stafford = 59.8 (31st), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 74.6 (17th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 21.9 pts (5th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 73.9 (7th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 32.1 pts (6th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 6.3 pts (26th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 58.6 (26th), RunD = 60.8 (16th), PassRsh = 68.9 (14th), Cov = 48.3 (29th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - Home vs GB, home vs LV, home vs MIN, at SEA, home vs MIA, at NE, home vs PHI, at NO, home vs BUF

Ravens - Derrick Henry in purple and black is the most beautiful thing we’ve seen in Baltimore since the days of Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. At 30 years old, the immortal King could have the best season of his Hall of Fame career. The two-time MVP Lamar Jackson is playing lights out as one of the greatest QBs we have ever seen. So why isn’t this team ranked amongst the Superpowers? The passing attack for Baltimore has been nonexistent through the first quarter of the season, rendering Zay Flowers as an upside FLEX option. In strong contention for the most disappointing healthy player in 2024 is Mark Andrews. His 6/9 for 65 scoreless yards through four games is criminal. Isaiah Likely may be the Ravens TE of the future, but what does it matter?

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.35 (32nd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 78.1 (3rd), RunBlk = 76.3 (3rd), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Lamar Jackson = 79 (6th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 88.8 (2nd), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 22.9 pts (4th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 69.2 (16th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 17 pts (31st), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 9.7 pts (6th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 72.8 (6th-tied), RunD = 75.5 (3rd), PassRsh = 71.4 (10th), Cov = 67.2 (15th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - Home vs CIN, home vs WAS, at TB, home vs CLE, at DEN, at CIN, home vs PIT, at LAC, home vs PHI

Works Cited

• PFF

• NFL Week 4 Recap - Fantasy Usage Model by Hayden Winks

https://underdognetwork.com/football/analysis/nfl-week-4-recap-fantasy-usage-model-2024

The Dossier

Image created by DK

Week 5 RANKINGS: Bye weeks are here

In a blink of an eye, the fantasy football season is four games into the 2024 NFL season. It is tough to believe but teams are starting their byes this week. Not only are our fantasy squads down players due to injuries but now it is time to start worrying about filling these players on their vacation week. Luckily there are a slew of matchups that project to provide fantasy managers with a bunch of scoring. Buffalo versus Houston, Green Bay versus LA, Baltimore versus Cincy, Zona versus the Niners, even Jacksonville versus Indy all have over 45 point over/unders. Let’s take a peek into my rankings for this week. They are live right now so go click on weekly rankings under the rankings tab on the South Harmon website to see ALL OF MY WEEK 5 RANKS.

Bye Week Fillers

A number of key members of fantasy teams are M.I.A. this week due to byes. Teams are scrambling to find replacements for players like Amon-Ra St. Brown, Saquon Barkley, Tony Pollard, and way more. Quick, go check to see if players like Josh Downs, Trey Sermon, Dontayvion Wicks, or Antonio Gibson are available. Sermon and Gibson are ranked inside my top 35 at running back. Downs and Wicks have settled comfortably inside the WR 3/Flex conversation. Both guys can be used this week to fill in some of the fantasy football gaps left by the first wave of byes. 

Trust These Players

Kenneth Walker III, Justin Fields, Travis Kelce, and D’Andre Swift are a few players that posted good numbers in Week 4 but can they be trusted in Week 5? Here is a snapshot of where I have some of the kings from Week 4:

• Kenneth Walker III - RB 7

• D’Andre Swift - RB 14

• Travis Kelce - TE 2

• Justin Fields - QB 12

• Jordan Addison - WR 27

• Josh Downs - WR 31

Crash and Burn

It’s always important to make the correct lineup decisions to get wins in fantasy football but those decisions become even more difficult when the byes are happening. Rhamondre Stevenson has already put the ball on the ground four times this season and the Patriots are contemplating starting Antonio Gibson because of it. There has been a large gap between the two backs but this week that gap has narrowed. Mondre comes in at RB 26 while Gibson is only a handful of spots behind. Kyle Pitts can no longer be looked at as a top 10 option at tight end. After a BIG goose egg in Week 4, he came in at TE 14 heading into TNF. He’s big and was brought in to be Josh Allen’s number one receiver but it just ain’t happening yet. Keon Coleman cannot be trusted and will be outside my top 50 until things change. Starting these players will cause your Week 5 lineup to crash and burn. 

Check out the entire Week 5 positional ranks on South Harmon dot com to help make even the toughest of lineup decisions.

FANTASY FOOTBALL TRADE ADVICE: WEEK 5 BUY & SELL

We are four games into the NFL season and it already feels like so much has happened. We’ve seen injuries, benchings, and role changes and it’s just getting started. Fantasy football teams are already starting to get an idea whether a championship is realistic or not. The preverbal fantasy fork in the road is rapidly approaching and it’s time to start planning for a playoff run or start setting sights onto 2025 and beyond. Regardless of what teams have in store going forward, here are the week’s buy and sell targets.

Buy

Jayden Reed

Adding pieces from the Green Bay Packer offense seems like good business at the moment. Four games in and the Packers have put up the third most total yards per game, seventh most points per game, and the seventh most passing yards per game despite Jordan Love missing two games. Atop the Packers wish list has to be Jayden Reed. He is currently the WR 4 in fantasy and has been super productive for Green Bay. Out of all wide receivers that have run at least 75 routes, Reed has the fourth highest yards per route run and the sixth highest yards after catch. Fantasy football market indicators have Reed as a wide receiver two but WoRP (wins over replacement player) listed him as a top five wide receiver and a top 10 player overall. There is still a gap between the value of Jayden Reed versus the perceived market value which is why the time to buy the Packer is NOW.

Who to trade away

Buying is not always about getting players for cheap prices. Sometimes it is about adding a player before his value skyrockets. Reed falls into that category. Trading for him will cost a running back two and a wide receiver two or three from a squad but it will be worth it. Players in the Christian Kirk or Calvin Ridley range plus James Conner or Rhamondre Stevenson seems like the current price and fantasy managers should be more than excited to make that move. Dynasty gamers can pony up a mid-late first for Reed and sleep easy at night.  Don’t be like Jerry Jones and let your procrastination cause you to pay max prices. 

Sell

Kyle Pitts

Fantasy managers are always looking to add and roster special talents because special talents lead to fantasy championships. But special talents can also break your heart when their talent doesn't convert to fantasy points. That has been the case for Kyle Pitts for a majority of his career. Fantasy markets continue to value Pitts as a top five or six tight end but once again finds himself outside of the top 12. After recording ZERO receptions on just three targets in Week 4, Kyle Pitts now finds himself as the fifth option on the Falcons passing hierarchy. Using WoRP, it's easy to see that Pitts has been as replaceable as players like Allen Lazard, Tre Tucker, and Alexander Mattison. Sometimes it is best to use the fantasy landscape to an advantage. The tight ends in fantasy have collectively sucked. Before any leaguemates realize that Pitts is so easy to replace, move him for a decent return. 

Who to trade for

According to fantasy market indicators, Pitts can still be sold for a player like Davante Adams, Terry McLaurin, and Cooper Kupp. All players come with risk but are more likely to contribute to a winning starting lineup on a weekly basis. Tiering down is an option because fantasy managers can look pretty low on the tight end rankings and not lose more value according to WoRP. Nobody has to be like the musicians on the Titanic going down with the ship. Trade away Kyle Pitts away while the market still believes in the “unicorn.”

We are just through Week 4 but it is NOT too early to start making deals in fantasy. Slow and steady is for the NFL executives and the folks who don’t want to win their league. Doesn’t matter whether fantasy managers are looking to buy or sell, now is the time to act and show the team that you mean business. There is exactly ZERO research that backs this up but it feels true. Whenever fantasy managers believe in their team, show the team that they’re all in…the squad reciprocates the love via fantasy production. Stay trading my friends…

Week 5 Waiver Targets

Waiver Targets

The South Harmon Agency has more high-tier operatives gathering intel than ever before. Be sure to keep your channel open and collect data from the various sources as it comes in. In terms of FAAB bidding, review your league’s previous waiver behavior to navigate the wire best. The waiver wire will become more bare as the season continues, especially in best ball formats.

ReDraft (most of these players will be rostered in Dynasty leagues)

• Dontayvion Wicks - 18% rostership, 15-18% FAAB (Erupted in wk 4 - 5/13 for 78 yds & 2 TDs. With Watson injured, Wicks can explode any given week on this high-flying offense with Love at QB.)

• Josh Downs - 28% rostership, 12-15% FAAB (Downs was a key factor in the Colts' upset win over the Steelers. Hauling in 8/9 for 82 yds & 1 TD, we believe Downs is just getting started with JT now injured.)

• Chase Brown - 57% rostership, 12-15% FAAB (We were wrong to advocate dropping him, but we blame the Bengals for waiting until wk 4 to utilize the explosive RB finally.)

• Tre Tucker - 19% rostership, 10-12% FAAB in Best Ball (Was under consideration last week, but now we have seen enough to recommend picking up the speedy WR. He should continue to produce as the big-play WR while Adams recovers from injury.)

• Trey Sermon - 4% rostership, spend 2-3% FAAB (This is a tricky situation: ARich can’t pass, JT is hurt, & Sermon isn’t that great of an RB. Perhaps it's best to target these other waivers.)

Dynasty

• Jeremy McNichols - 3% rostership, 8-10% FAAB in Best Ball only (Absolutely smashed filling in for Ekeler - 8 carries for 68 yds, 2 TDs. An explosive RB on one of the best rushing offenses is worth a pick-up.)

• Dare Ogunbowale - 11% rostership, 5-8% FAAB (Akers hasn’t done much filling in for Mixon the last 2 weeks. Pick up Dare for his receiving upside.)

• Justin Watson - 13% rostership, 3-5% FAAB (Watson is a downfield WR who thrives on splash plays during critical downs. Despite the injury to Rice, do not expect a major uptick for Watson.)

• Mecole Hardman/Skyy Moore/JuJu Smith-Schuster - 13-35% rostership, 0-1% FAAB (All these WRs could be total cones at this point in their careers, but at the rate the Chiefs are losing cornerstones of their offense, we fully expect Travis Kelce & Carson Steele to be the TE1 & RB1 from here on out.)

Expendable

Cut loose the following players before they compromise their rosters:

ReDraft

• Kirk Cousins - 41% rostership (The most underrated QB in the league does not look like a good fit for this Atlanta team. Keep him if you have no other choice.)

• Tyjae Spears - 65% rostership (Pollard has taken over the backfield for a Titans’ offense with zero upside.)

• Ezekiel Elliott - 64% rostership (From 51% snap share in wk 1 to 18% in wk 4, Elliott and the Cowboys' run game looks completely cooked.)

The Dossier

Image created by DK

Check out the latest from South Harmon

Videos: https://www.youtube.com/@SouthHarmonFF/videos

Podcasts: https://open.spotify.com/show/4DRA34XipOMfw4vNi1VITC?si=e24c1ede81a44590

Week 4 RANKINGS: BREAKOUT CANDIDATES

Here we go, welcome to Week 4 of the NFL season. The fantasy world witnessed some big time fantasy weeks by players NO ONE was expecting. Will Week 4 have the same magic? The over/under projections suggest that the prime time slate will be very exciting. Buffalo versus Baltimore and Seattle versus Detroit are projected to shoot out. There are a handful of divisional matchups which always have the potential to display some fireworks. Let’s take a peek into my rankings for this week. They are live right now so go click on weekly rankings under the rankings tab on the South Harmon website to see ALL OF MY WEEK 4 RANKS.

Breakout Candidates

The 2023 Rookie of the Year, CJ Stroud hasn’t had a big fantasy day so far this season. That changes in Week 4 when the Texans take on the Jacksonville Jaguars and their swiss cheese secondary. Stroud destroyed the cats last year and that is why he is the quarterback six in my Week 4 rankings. Brandon Aiyuk hasn’t quite shaken off the rust caused by holding out but he is poised for a BIG Week 4 versus the Patriots. He saw ten targets last week but only hauled in five. Aiyuk is too talented to dud again with that kind of volume. Expect BA to finish as a top 15 wide receiver this week. Najee Harris hasn’t had a performance that warrants a top 20 RB ranking but he’s getting the volume and his matchup is juicy in Week 4 so his breakout performance in 2024 may happen sooner rather than later.

DUDS

I can admit when I’m wrong. I’m only human, I don’t always make the right call. Coming into the season I had some high hopes for Trevor Lawrence. After three straight dud performances this year, T-Law plummeted down my Week 4 rankings. Get it together Sunshine! Sometimes it is wild how quickly things will tilt in fantasy football. Quentin Johnston isn’t useless two weeks in a row and all of a sudden he’s not the bust that he’s been. I’m still not convinced so he falls outside of my top 50 at wide receiver. Heading into the season Zamir White was slated to be a lock to be an RB 2 in fantasy. Three straight weeks he has been a total bust. Alexander Mattison is getting the passing work AND the goal line touches. Twenty-two rushes for 89 yards ain’t gonna cut it. Expect another sub top 35 performance. 

Week 4 SLEEPERS

Can you really call a player that has put together multiple seasons of high end production a sleeper? I guess when he’s still massively under-rostered I can. Zach Ertz has seen four or more targets every game this season. As Jayden Daniels continues to improve, Ertz will be right there with him and that is why he is a top ten tight end this week. Get him on your roster ASAP. Emanuel Wilson has been hyper efficient this season. He continues to show that he doesn’t need volume to produce but the funny thing is that when players continue to produce they see more volume. Not generally rostered, Wilson can be picked up and expected to be a top 35 RB. 

Check out the entire Week 4 positional ranks on South Harmon dot com to help make even the toughest of lineup decisions. 

fantasy football trade advice: week 4 buy & sell

Week 3 is in the books and the fantasy football world is on fire. Jayden Daniels, Malik Nabers, Marvin Harrison are putting up massive fantasy weeks as rookies. Even Caleb Williams put up decent fantasy numbers. Waiver wire priorities like Jauan Jennings and Andy Dalton went absolutely nuclear. Just as we predicted, fantasy football is anything but predictable. We are all in the fantasy trenches and it’s time to start adding bullets to win these battles. Here are the weekly BUY and SELL for the 3-0 squads, the 0-3 squads and everything else in between.

Buy

Najee Harris

Risk is defined as a situation involving exposure to danger. Buying Najee Harris is a risk but as the wiseman says…”you gotta risk it, to get the biscuit.” The Steelers running back is unequivocally worth the risk and investment. The elephant in the room is the supposed arm injury but without any information it doesn’t sound serious. Three games in, Harris is dominating running back opportunities and there are positive indicators in his underlying metrics. His 1.3 rushes of 15+ MPH is up from last year and his 4.3 xYPC is a career best. Pittsburgh's offensive line hasn’t been as bad as perceived either. They have a top 12 run blocking unit according to PFF. The Steelers play the Colts, the Cowboys, and the Raiders over their next three games. Now is the right time to get Harris and don’t forget to add Najee insurance aka Cordarelle Patterson on waivers.

Who to trade away

The price tag to acquire Najee Harris is cheap which presents a very nice opportunity to buy into the tailback. His value has plummeted to a point where a combination of bench pieces will get a deal done. Putting together a package of players like Jerry Jeudy, Javonte Williams, Tyjae Spears or selling high on a Quentin Johnston will get teams a running back capable of being a consistent RB 2 rest of season. For the fantasy football teams that are desperate for wins in the next few weeks, Harris can be a savior given his soft matchups coming up. Buying low is a pillar of success in fantasy football for a reason.

Sell

Patrick Mahomes

It must be said, Patrick Mahomes is the most valuable player in football. He is the clear cut 1.01 if the league went nutty and held its own fantasy draft. BUT in the fantasy football universe, Mahomes has become pretty dang replaceable. It’s early but his WoRP is in the same tier as quarterbacks like Brock Burdy, Sam Darnold, and Derek Carr. Dating back to the Chiefs 2023 bye week which is ten games, Mahomes has averaged 18.5 fantasy points per game. The Kansas City offense has become very conservative. They pass the ball just 53-percent of the time and the passing attack ranks in the middle of the league. This formula flat out stinks for fantasy football but man is it good for winning NFL football games. The Chiefs are 7-4 since that Week 2023 bye and won another Super Bowl. Mahomes is in the winning championship business not the fantasy football business.

Who to trade for

Trading quarterbacks can vary so much depending on format. Obviously in 2 QB leagues, they are gold and typically come in the form of blockbusters. Ask for moon and stars in the sky Boyz II Men style when selling Mahomes in multi QB. Dealing signal callers in single quarterback leagues can be very tricky. Taking the tiering down approach made famous but the great and powerful Mike McNutted is the way to go here. Trading Mahomes for Aaron Rodgers, Sam Darnold, or Baker Mayfield as well as a running back or wide receiver that will make the starting lineup is a trade that your league will hate on but will return big time value this season. Scared money don’t make money homey. 

See you next week!

We are just through Week 3 but it is NOT too early to start making deals in fantasy. Slow and steady is for the NFL executives and the folks who don’t want to win their league. Doesn’t matter whether fantasy managers are looking to buy or sell, now is the time to act and show the team that you mean business. There is exactly ZERO research that backs this up but it feels true. Whenever fantasy managers believe in their team, show the team that they’re all in…the squad reciprocates the love via fantasy production. Stay trading my friends…

WK 3 - Depressed States

Franchises That Can Make or Break 2024

Okay. All right, now, let's see. Where were we? Oh, yes. In the Pit of Despair.

Grandpa - The Princess Bride

Image created by T-Rock

Burned

“Hey! It’s my birthday, do you want to come over to my place and watch The Iron Claw?” you say to your co-worker, who is way out of your league. She smiles at you saying, “Oh my God, that would be great!” before quickly walking away. In preparation for your pity date, you wrestle yourself into your favorite pop-culture T-shirt from Khol’s, which now feels kid-sized. The scent of black cherry merlot wafts through your studio apartment, doing its best to drown out the aroma of cat litter and kill socks. You quickly look down at your vibrating phone, hoping it's her. It’s your mom asking you for the HBO MAX password so she can watch Furiosa. An hour and a half have passed before it finally sinks in that she isn’t coming. A knock at the door catapults you from your hookah-burned loveseat. It's the Uber Eats driver with your $28 Taco Bell order, now for one. You eat the whole thing. All in all, not such a bad birthday. That is until you open up your Sleeper app. 0-3, 0-3, 1-2 with the lowest points scored, 0-3. Most embarrassing of course being your winless work-league team, where half of the managers have never played before, and all of them know you are big into fantasy football. What once began as “My Year!” has quickly devolved into “my last year...”

SITREP - Depressed States

High hopes and significant capital were invested in the following teams for the 2024 fantasy season. Like the job prospects in a shit economy, you feel misled and disappointed, the same way most parents feel about their kids. Some of these franchises may turn it around, allowing their star players to flourish. But for the most part, these teams’ weaknesses will hold their players back from living up to their potential, similar to me with my Master’s degree. Caught in the awful dilemma of holding players that may never ascend or trading players before their resurgence, these teams epitomize the fantasy Catch-22.

Patriots - Some people are interested in knowing what life was like a hundred years ago and spend their weekends at museums. If you love boring, dusty football, look no further than the New England Patriots, who put the “Old” in Old School. Their game plan revolves around sound defense, running the ball with a bellcow RB, and keeping the ball safe on passing downs. They often don’t pass the ball further than 10 yards downfield given subpar line play. Rhamondre Stevenson will have decent games throughout the season, but negative game scripts and zero threat of explosive plays through the air will hamper the Rhino. 

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.42 (28th in NFL), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 54 (28th), RunBlk = 56.2 (27th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Jacoby Brissett = 62.2 (24th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 75.8 (14th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 21.7 pts (12th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 60.6 (26th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 15.2 pts (32nd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 11.7 pts (2nd-tied), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 67.1 (13th), RunD = 58.5 (19th), PassRsh = 71.3 (7th), Cov = 65 (19th), (Courtesy PFF) 

Upcoming Schedule - At SF, home vs MIA, home vs HOU, at JAX, home vs NYJ, at TEN, at CHI, home vs LAR, at MIA  

Bears - Caleb Willams has every tool to become a successful QB. Unfortunately, he plays for the Bears, who once again have proven why no offensive player can succeed in Chicago. The narrative that the offensive line has been revamped was a bald-faced lie. This gives the Bears no chance of having positive momentum through the air or on the ground. If this wasn’t enough, the Bears have the worst OC in the entire league. Hold onto Caleb and Rome Odunze, looking forward to next year.  

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.54 (8th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 70.5 (11th), RunBlk = 59.9 (22nd), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Caleb Williams = 48.6 (40th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 59.9 (30th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 17.9 pts (23rd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 60.3 (27th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 34.6 pts (4th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 11 pts (6th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 72.1 (7th), RunD = 61.7 (13th), PassRsh = 70.9 (8th), Cov = 74 (6th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - Home vs LAR, home vs CAR, home vs JAX, at WAS, at ARI, home vs NE, home vs GB, home vs MIN, at DET  

Raiders - A Jekyll and Hyde team, the Raiders operate purely on emotion, punching well above their weight class as underdogs, but also capable of collapse against lesser teams. Gardner Minshew exhausted all of his quality play last year in Indianapolis and has regressed to backup status in Las Vegas. With coach Pierce already considering Aidan O'Connell at QB, Bowers and Adams owners are in for a carousel ride from hell in 2024. Zamir White being unusable is the biggest nonsurprise of the season. The Silver and Black will leave fantasy managers black and blue by the end of the season.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.54 (7th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 71.5 (9th), RunBlk = 47 (31st), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Gardner Minshew = 70.8 (12th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 40.2 (32nd), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 14.9 pts (32nd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 71.4 (12th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 27.9 pts (12th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 11.6 pts (5th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 52.3 (30th), RunD = 71.9 (5th), PassRsh = 60.2 (24th), Cov = 34.5 (32nd), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - Home vs CLE, at DEN, home vs PIT, at LAR, home vs KC, at CIN, at MIA, home vs DEN, at KC  

Chargers - The Chargers deserve to be in a higher tier. Jim Harbaugh is a fantastic coach who understands successful team building. He has raised both J.K. Dobbins and Quentin Johnston from the dead. The defense looks the best it has in years. But the Chargers, and some other teams in this tier, are far better in real life than in fantasy. With Justin Herbert’s health in constant flux for the rest of the year, the only reliable option in this offense is JK All Day. Herbert, Ladd McConkey, and Dobbins will be a sneaky great trio in 2025.  

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.4 (29th-tied), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 58.1 (25th), RunBlk = 65.9 (13th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Justin Herbert = 53.2 (37th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 62.5 (26th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 16.9 pts (28th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 63.9 pts (22nd), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 18.8 pts (29th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 6.3 pts (24th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 75.7 (5th), RunD = 63.6 (10th), PassRsh = 63.1 (21st), Cov = 85.7 (2nd), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - Home vs KC, at DEN, at ARI, home vs NO, at CLE, home vs TEN, home vs CIN, home vs BAL, at ATL  

Steelers - Like the team before them, the Steelers are fun to watch in RL but nerve-racking for fantasy. Justin Fields may be the ideal QB for this Authur Smith offense, but he limits the upside of George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth. The Agency would much rather have Russell Wilson at QB for this reason, but that ship may have sailed for the team-voted captain if Fields keeps winning. Their elite defense will give their offense plenty of opportunities. But with the pass-catchers being a boom-bust option and Najee & Warren playing well below their capabilities, Pittsburgh will frustrate managers in 2024.  

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.4 (29th-tied), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 68.2 (15th), RunBlk = 70 (11th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Justin Fields = 81 (5th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 58.9 (31st), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 21.9 pts (11th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 69.7 (16th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 15.5 pts (31st), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 7.8 pts (15th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 80.3 (2nd), RunD = 72.1 (4th), PassRsh = 88 (1st), Cov = 72.4 (9th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - At IND, home vs DAL, at LV, home vs NYJ, home vs NYG, at WAS, home vs BAL, at CLE, at CIN   

Colts - The Agency had high hopes for this Steichen-led offense with talented playmakers, an elite offensive line, and a duel-threat mutant at QB. Unfortunately, the ultimate fantasy QB looks like a Frankenstein monstrosity who escaped the lab before he could learn passing fundamentals. No overpriced beer is safe with how often Richardson’s passes sail over the receivers and into the stands. His inaccuracy will not be fixed during the season; these issues can only be fixed during the offseason. No receiver is startable with this offseason and Jonathan Taylor is a risky play with how bad the defense has frequently looked. 

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.48 (17th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 85.8 (1st), RunBlk = 82.3 (1st), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Anthony Richardson = 48.3 (41st), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 79.4 (8th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 16.2 pts (30th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 57 (31st), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 21.3 pts (24th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 4.5 pts (31st-tied), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 65.5 (16th), RunD = 64.7 (9th), PassRsh = 58.3 (26th), Cov = 66.5 (16th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - Home vs PIT, at JAX, at TEN, home vs MIA, at HOU, at MIN, home vs BUF, at NYJ, home vs DET

Jets - With Breece Hall being the only viable fantasy option, the Jets are the definition of a depressed franchise. Hopes of Aaron Rodgers making the most of the opportunities afforded to him by his loaded defense appear misplaced. Allen Lazard, not Garret Wilson, appears to have the best connection with the QB. The Agency fully anticipates the Jets to improve on offense as the season progresses, but with the team being content to keep their signal-caller upright, we expect the offense to continue to run through Hall and Allen at RB and the breakout season for Wilson to remain elusive.    

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.5 (11th-tied), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 66.1 (18th), RunBlk = 66.7 (12th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Aaron Rodgers = 82.8 (3rd), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 81.7 (5th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 22.1 pts (10th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 70.1 (14th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 25.4 pts (16th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 7.4 pts (16th-tied), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 64.7 (19th), RunD = 45.6 (31st), PassRsh = 66.6 (16th), Cov = 79.5 (3rd), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - Home vs DEN, at MIN, home vs BUF, at PIT, at NE, home vs HOU, at ARI, home vs IND, home vs SEA    

Dolphins - Miami finds themselves in football limbo with their QB Tua Tagovailoa lost in the maze once again. Having De’Von Achane average 20 touches per game has been great, but this is a short-term fantasy fling that isn’t built to last and could end in heartbreak at any moment. The best outcome for the team is Tua emerging from the labyrinth to play the rest of the season. For this reason, Tyreek Hill is a hold. But Tua remaining unscathed for the year behind an awful pass-blocking line isn’t realistic. The Dolphins should trade for Bryce Young, who could excel in this McDaniel offense.     

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.49 (13th-tied), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 62.6 (22nd), RunBlk = 76.5 (3rd), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Tua Tagovailoa = 59.9 (27th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 70.2 (20th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 23.5 pts (3rd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 60.7 (25th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 25.4 pts (15th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 11.7 pts (2nd-tied), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 61.2 (24th), RunD = 69.6 (6th), PassRsh = 67.3 (15th), Cov = 48.5 (29th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - Home vs TEN, at NE, at IND, home vs ARI, at BUF, at LAR, home vs LV, home vs NE, at GB  

Bengals - Our prediction for the Bengals to become the next high-flying offense was WAY OFF. Their run game is nonexistent, which is a moot point considering their sieve of a defense. Cincinnati has all the pass-catching power to keep them in a lot of games, but with their one-dimensional build, this team is going to be nowhere near what we had hoped for in 2024.  

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.59 (3rd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 68 (16th), RunBlk = 57.5 (25th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Joe Burrow = 77.2 (8th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 71.4 (19th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 18 pts (21st-tied), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 62.9 (23rd), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 30.7 pts (10th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 13.7 pts (1st), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 63.8 (21st), RunD = 62.6 (11th), PassRsh = 57.3 (28th), Cov = 66.5 (16th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - At CAR, home vs BAL, at NYG, at CLE, home vs PHI, home vs LV, at BAL, at LAC, home vs PIT  

Falcons - Murdered out in their all-black unis, few teams are more intimidating than Atlanta lined up on offense. But despite their embarrassment of riches, the Falcons have played far below fantasy expectations. Every pass from Kirk Cousins looks like a hate-throw; as if he has already accepted that he will be benched by midseason for Michael Penix. Drake London was drafted as a top 12-15 WR, but he is playing more like a 25-30-ranked receiver. The greatest “what-if?” player of his generation remains Kyle Pitts. Bijan Robinson is playing more like the Suffering Servant with only 1 TD in three games than the RB Messiah we had all hoped for. Darnell Mooney is a sneaky cheap buy with his solid connection to Cousins. The Falcons could elevate themselves into the next tier, but as of now, they are one of fantasy’s most depressing teams.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.44 (24th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 56.8 (26th), RunBlk = 71.5 (8th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Kirk Cousins = 61.4 (25th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 75.8 (14th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 18.6 pts (17th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 71.9 (9th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 24.7 pts (17th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 7 pts (19th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 64.4 (20th), RunD = 62 (12th), PassRsh = 48.8 (32nd), Cov = 72.8 (8th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - Home vs NO, home vs TB, at CAR, home vs SEA, at TB, home vs DAL, at NO, at DEN, home vs LAC  

Works Cited

• PFF

• NFL Week 3 Recap - Fantasy Usage Model by Hayden Winks

https://underdognetwork.com/football/analysis/nfl-week-3-recap-fantasy-usage-model-2024

The Dossier

Image created by ATM

Week 4 Waiver Targets

Waiver Targets

The South Harmon Agency has more high-tier operatives gathering intel than ever before. Be sure to keep your channel open and collect data from the various sources as it comes in. In terms of FAAB bidding, review your league’s previous waiver behavior to navigate the wire best. The waiver wire will become more bare as the season continues, especially in best ball formats.

ReDraft (most of these players will be rostered in Dynasty leagues)

• Jauan Jennings - 44% rostership, spend 15-18% FAAB (Deebo & Kittle being ruled out late last week made Jauan a must-add. Jennings is unlikely to replicate his colossal Wk 3 performance, but he is an easy FLEX play any time SF is down a starter (which is often))

• Michael Wilson - 15% rostership, 12-15% FAAB (McBride is likely out with a concussion in Wk 4, elevating Michael Wilson to WR3 territory against a putrid WAS def)

• Xavier Legette - 35% rostership, 8-10% FAAB in Best Ball (With Andy Dalton, the Panthers are no longer a clown show on offense, and with Thielen likely missing significant time, Legette could see more opportunity)

• Allen Lazard - 39% rostership, 5-8% FAAB (Rodgers is taking the easy looks to the Lizard King while defenses scheme against Garrett Wilson)

• Tyler Conklin - 14% rostership, 5-8% FAAB (Likely dropped after two abysmal weeks, Conklin is a serviceable option at a wasteland position)

• Brenton Strange - 35% rostership, 3-5% FAAB (With Engram out for an undefined period, Strange becomes the #2-3 option on an offense devoid of playmakers)

• Antonio Gibson - 27% rostership, 0-5% FAAB (With bye weeks on the horizon and injuries soon to follow, you can do worse than Gibson. He’s carved out a key pass-catching role on an offense that doesn’t pass the ball very far down the field)

• Jordan Akins - 3% rostership, 0% FAAB (Has 12 targets and 8 catches through 3 games, which is solid enough in 2024. Enjoy another few weeks of production before Njoku returns to the fold)

Dynasty

• Calvin Austin - 31% rostership, 5-8% FAAB in Best Ball only (He played in only 54% of the snaps in Wk 3, but the Steelers have no one else at WR outside of Pickens)

• Elijah Higgins - 9% rostership, 5% FAAB (Higgins is the next man up at TE with McBride likely to miss their juicy matchup against WAS in Wk. 4. Higgins has athletic upside, but temper expectations with MHJ, Wilson, & Dortch all likely ahead of him)

• Johnny Wilson- 36% rostership, 0-5% FAAB (The Eagles could wait until after their Wk 5 bye to bring back both AJ Brown & DeVonta Smith. This gives the 6’6” 228 lb mutant WR Johnny Wilson a chance, but Philly will likely run the ball down TB’s throat)

• Brock Wright - 3% rostership, 0-3% FAAB (The Lions appear to operate best running the ball, but if LaPorta misses time, Brock could see decent touches)

Expendable

Cut loose the following players before they compromise their rosters:

ReDraft

• Justin Herbert - 61% rostership (Outside of the top 24, he will be severely limited by injuries, the run-first offense, and a lack of explosive pass-catchers. Trade him for Andy Dalton)

• Zamir White - 82% rostership (He’s the worst starting RB in the league. Drop him as a waiver wire booby trap)

• Tyler Allgeier - 36% rostership (Even if Bijan gets hurt, what is the upside?)

• Jaleel McLaughlin - 34% rostership (DEN has the worst run game in the NFL)

• Jaylen Warren - 75% rostership (Likely not fully recovered from his knee injury, he can be dropped if he can’t be traded)

• Gus Edwards - 60% rostership (Gus has looked like an absolute cone in 2024, forcing J.K. into a bell-cow role)

• Khalil Herbert - 13% rostership (The Bears couldn’t run the ball if their lives depended on it)

• Chase Brown - 56% rostership (The Bengals have zero faith in Chase Brown)

• Trey Benson - 49% rostership (3% of the touches in Wk. 3, the Cardinals are in no hurry to feature the explosive RB)

• Blake Corum - 44% rostership (McVay lied to us all Summer about how much he loves Corum. I should have traded him for Brian Robinson plus a 3rd when I had the chance)

• NE WRs - (These receivers are closer to Charlies than Betas)

• IND WRs - (Hold onto Pittman for one more week, but everyone else is droppable. Waterboarding, electroshock, and watching ARich pass the ball have all been deemed as permissible enhanced interrogation techniques for our Agency)

The Dossier

Image created by ATM

Check out the latest from South Harmon

Mike & ATM: https://www.youtube.com/live/2Fz4FyMV2lQ?si=5afTYCJNiQsZwed7

ATM: https://youtu.be/7hBrBU2xZsU?si=IH9_bhk_qf7pToo3

Matty: https://www.youtube.com/live/es30r3DfdEc?si=UyKH1HkiovsNDi1U

Fizzle: https://www.youtube.com/live/ypbi15JQL1w?si=dGtF-GgmvZAzyIGG

Cody & Matty: https://www.youtube.com/live/dcXCATlxE88?si=z5it78n3X293Tni8

Fizzle & Cody: https://www.youtube.com/live/SzUsNN4T0BE?si=XzKurG_K1Vz4SUz9

Koopa: https://open.spotify.com/episode/6oyQQrGN0Df4jEXxNACxbD?si=69de6cef957743f9

Cody & Matty: https://open.spotify.com/episode/3hqBgzsoLFYwoH7gVBzqU2?si=c864c0ddd6ed47e5

Eric: https://open.spotify.com/episode/4smuMw8qoZI0M6caY6eOfU?si=b55a3f0e976d4f6a

Matt & Pat: https://open.spotify.com/episode/5PN6cJGP2YNjLeJYYg5gMv?si=9c1c6dc8e9034d11

Top DEVY RANKINGS UPDATE

Every Friday, I will be introducing a different topic that is centralized around College Football, the NFL Draft, High School Recruiting, or something of that nature. Whether it is keeping you updated on my Devy Rankings movers, an NFL Draft Big Board, live event recaps from events at all three levels or just an old-fashioned Weekend Preview of the games, you’ll find it all, right here at South Harmon.

Get the FULL Devy Rankings right now, Patreon.com/southharmon

Devy Rankings QB Movers

• QB - Avery Johnson, Kansas State (+10)

• QB - Dylan Raiola, Nebraska (+7)

• QB - Drew Allar, Penn State (+5)

• QB - LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina (+4)

• QB - DJ Lagway, Florida (+2)

• QB - Cam Ward, Miami (+2)

• QB - Garrett Nussmeir, LSU (+2)

• QB - Riley Leonard, Notre Dame (-3)

• QB - Dante Moore, Oregon (-4)

• QB - Jackson Arnold, Oklahoma (-7)

• QB - Conner Weigman, Texas A&M (-11)

Devy Rankings RB Movers

• RB - Taylor Tatum, Oklahoma (+17)

• RB - Jaydon Blue, Texas (+5)

• RB - Caden Durham, LSU (+5)

• RB - Ashton Jeanty, Boise State (+4)

• RB - Dylan Sampson, Tennessee (NEW)

• RB - Donovan Edwards, Michigan (-3)

• RB - Trevor Etienne, Georgia (-3)

• RB - Damien Martinez, Miami (-3)

• RB - Tahj Brooks, Texas Tech (-4)

• RB - Gavin Sawchuk, Oklahoma (-5)

• RB - CJ Baxter, Texas (-10)

Devy Rankings WR Movers

• WR - Isaiah Bond, Texas (+7)

• WR - Ryan Wingo, Texas (+6)

• WR - Tre Harris, Ole Miss (+6)

• WR - Travis Hunter, Colorado (+6)

• WR - Bryant Wesco, Clemson (+5)

• WR - Ryan Williams, Alabama (+4)

• WR - Micah Hudson, Texas Tech (-3)

• WR - Tory Horton, Colorado State (-4)

• WR - Evan Stewart, Oregon (-4)

• WR - Kevin Concepcion, NC State (-5)

• WR - Eugene Wilson, Florida (-5)

Devy Rankings TE Movers

• TE - Lawson Luckie, Georgia (+17)

• TE - Harrold Fannin, Bowling Green (+17)

• TE - Gunner Helm, Texas (+13)

• TE - Mitchell Evans, Notre Dame (+4)

• TE - Colston Loveland, Michigan (+2)

• TE - Oronde Gadsden, Syracuse (+1)

• TE - Brant Kuithe, Utah (-3)

• TE - Luke Hasz, Arkansas (-5)

• TE - Jaleel Skinner, Louisville (-8)

• TE - Oscar Delp, Georgia (-8)

• TE - Amari Niblack, Texas (-8)

Get the FULL Devy Rankings right now, Patreon.com/southharmon

WEEk 3 rankings: what player bounces back?

It’s Week 3 and the fantasy world is still recovering after a crazy Week 2. Three matchups project to be shootouts. Detroit vs Arizona, Baltimore vs Dallas, and PHI vs New Orleans are all pushing a 50 point over/under. There are also a handful of matchups that may be get right games for fantasy players. Let’s take a peek into my rankings for this week. They are live right now so go click on weekly rankings under the rankings tab on the South Harmon website to see ALL OF MY WEEK 3 RANKS.

Bounceback Candidates

Josh Allen laid an egg last week on TNF only scoring just 11.8 fantasy points. This week the Bills take on the Jaguars on extra rest. Jacksonville gives up the third most passing yards per game and I expect Allen to smash. He is my number one quarterback this week. Two weeks into the season and Ja’Marr Chase has yet to finish as a WR 1 in fantasy. That big game happens this week when the Bengals play the Commanders on Monday Night Football. Washington gives up the second most YAC over expected and the second least sack rate. Chase may or may not be the top wideout this week. Fool me once, shame on..shame on you. Fool me-you can’t get fooled again. I’m going back to the Travis Kelce well. This week on Sunday Night Football, Kansas City gets Kelce going when they take on the Falcons. He is a top three tight end in my Week 3 ranks.

Cautiously Optimistic

Heading into the season, we all thought that Zeus White was going to be a productive running back for the Raiders. So far that hasn’t been the case but that could change in Week 3. Las Vegas plays the terrible Panthers this week. Carolina gives up the second most rushing yards per game and 2.23 rushing yards before contact per carry which is the second highest in the league. Fire up White as a top 24 running back. Last Thursday was not kind for Tyreek Hill especially after Tua left the game. Tagovailoa is on IR and Skylar Thompson will be the starting QB. It’s not exciting to play Hill without his regular quarterback but given his home run ability, it’s hard to keep him out of the top 10. 

Week 3 SLEEPERS

Sometimes fantasy football teams need an injection of good vibes to get the squad going. Gardner Minshew brings all the good vibes and this week he takes on the Panthers. Carolina smells something awful (the exact opposite of good vibes) and their defense has given up the second most passing touchdowns so far this year. Any team that is in need of a quarterback, don’t look any further than the Maverick. Carson Steele may not be a traditional sleeper because the whole fantasy world is hip to the Gator King due to being the Week 3 waiver darling. Heading into Week 3, Steele is my highest ranked Chiefs’ running back. He’s big, athletic and has the most similar running style to Isiah Pacheco. Look for him to be a borderline RB 2 in Week 3.

Check out the entire Week 3 positional ranks on South Harmon dot com to help making even the toughest of lineup decisions. 

Fantasy Football trade advice: week 3 buy & sell

The fantasy season is just two weeks in but it already feels like a lifetime. Injuries and benchings have already begun in the NFL and there causing tidal waves across the fantasy-verse. Deebo Samuel, Cooper Kupp, AJ Brown, and Puka Nacua are all facing multiple week absences. Amari Cooper, Diontae Johnson, Christian Kirk, and Brandon Aiyuk have all gotten off to slow starts. Fantasy markets across the world are buzzing around receivers. This week let’s dive into one wide receiver to buy in our fantasy leagues. Not everyone is hurt or dragging ass in fantasy, there are players producing so I will also talk about a wide receiver that should be moved while his stock is high. 

Buy

Zay Flowers

The answer to the Isaiah Likely or Mark Andrews question was actually neither. It was and will continue to be Zay Flowers as the number one pass catcher for Lamar Jackson. Through the first two weeks of the season, Flowers has seen 21 targets and he’s caught 13 of them. Both statistics currently lead the Baltimore Ravens’ offense. His 26.7-percent Target Share ranks 14th in the NFL among all pass catchers not just wide receivers. I understand that it has only been two weeks but Flowers is already seeing a larger target share, he’s getting more separation, and is on pace to have more yards after catch then he did in his rookie campaign. His value is high and making a deal will not come with a discount but Flowers is ready to truly break out in 2024 so get in while it’s still possible. 

Who to trade away

Getting your fantasy team into the Zay Flowers business will not be cheap but there is a clear path to acquiring the second year receiver. Combining a wide out that has some production so far in 2024 plus a running back is the right way to go about it. So far this season Jerry Jeudy has been the most productive wideout in Cleveland but probably isn’t a main piece in any fantasy squads. So pairing him up with a running back like Javonte Williams, D’Andre Swift, or a Bengals back will get you in range according to most fantasy market indicators. Get Flowers on the squad and every Sunday will be Zay Day.

Sell

Rashid Shaheed

The biggest surprise of the young NFL season has to be the New Orleans Saints. This team has stream rolled the Panthers and the Cowboys and their offense has been humming. Rashid Shaheed has been the receiving leader for the Saints this year and that is causing his value to be at an all time high. He is eighth in the NFL in receiving yards and has averaged 18.6 fantasy points per contest which makes him WR 10 on the 2024 season. Shaheed has the speed to be hyper efficient but this type of efficiency is damn near impossible to maintain over the course of a season. He has 169 yards and two receiving touchdowns on just nine total targets. That’s a whopping 24.1 yards per reception on a 77.8-percent catch rate. In 2023, his most productive season as a pro, Shaheed finished with 15.6 yards per reception with a 61.3-percent catch rate. The speedster may have his best year as a professional but his value is peaking and that’s where fantasy managers can secure value this time of the season.

Who to trade for

It’s clear as crystal what fantasy gamers who roster Shaheed should do. Given what fantasy market indicators are showing, now is the perfect time to move the wide receiver for a running back. Jordan Mason (who will be the lead back for the Niners until Halloween), Najee Harris, Tony Pollard, Derrick Henry, and Brian Robinson could all be targets when selling a top 10 scorer like Shaheed. Even if it takes a smaller second piece, get the running back that will anchor the lineup for a majority of the season for a wide receiver that leads the fantasy world in bench scoring. Because no one has started Shaheed these first two weeks. 

It may only be Week 3 but it is NOT too early to start making deals in fantasy. Slow and steady is for the NFL executives and the folks who don’t want to win their league. Doesn’t matter whether fantasy managers are looking to buy or sell, now is the time to act and show the team that you mean business. There is exactly ZERO research that backs this up but it feels true. Whenever fantasy managers believe in their team, show the team that they’re all in…the squad reciprocates the love via fantasy production. Stay trading my friends…

WK 2 - Failed States

The Worst Franchises In 2024

You know what kind of plan never fails? No plan. No plan at all. You know why? Because life cannot be planned.

Ki-taek - Parasite

Briefing

Leagues across the globe are gripped with mayhem. Owners have input launch codes to nuke their rosters. Managers everywhere are doing their best Will Levis impersonation at their local Walmarts. The Field Surveillance Department can barely keep up with the flood of reports:

“CMC usurped, Jordan Mason, rising to legitimate power as RB1”

“Believed deceased, Sam Darnold and J.K. Dobbins leading separate revolutions in the North and West”

“The Miami Special Forces on the verge of disbanding after losing leader”

“The Shock Troop Saints have launched a surprise offensive from the South”

And we just received word, “Bryce Young, OUT. Andy Dalton, IN.”

Most concerning is the level of unrest amongst our Field Agents. Like throwing water onto a grease fire, some of their panic has resulted in ill-advised trades. Remember, Agency Protocol dictates:

Adhering to the Trade Schedule

• Weeks 1-2 - Be willing to trade a 3rd

• Weeks 3-4 - Be willing to trade 2x 3rds

• Weeks 5-8 - Be willing to trade a 2nd

• Weeks 9-12 - Be willing to trade 2x 2nds (or 1x early 2nd)

• Weeks 13-16 - Be willing to trade a 1st

Trading for a player worth a 2nd or more early in the season is a recipe for disaster. With limited resources, field agents cannot afford to take unnecessary risks due to the prevalence of injuries. The Agency broke the Preseason protocol of trading strictly for picks and instead traded for a player (De’Von Achane for Michael Pittman). This breach in security is luckily more embarrassing than damaging, but the Trade Series Field Manuals released earlier this year should have been consulted nonetheless. The best Operators will stay patient and make moves at the last possible moment

Anticipate Bounce Backs 

• Amon-Ra St. Brown - 11/19 for 119 yds (Wk 1 - 3/6 for 13 yds)

• Marvin Harrison Jr - 4/8 for 130 yds, 2 TDs (Wk 1 - 1/3 for 4 yds)

• Davante Adams - 9/12 for 110 yds, 1 TD (Wk 1 - 5/6 for 59 yds)

• DK Metcalf - 10/14 for 129 yds, 1 TD (Wk 1 - 3/4 for 29 yds)

• Zay Flowers - 7/11 for 91 yds, 1 TD (Wk 1 - 6/10 for 37 yds)

• Davante Adams - 9/12 for 110 yds, 1 TD (Wk 1 - 5/6 for 59 yds)

• JSN - 12/16 for 117 yds (Wk 1 - 2/2 for 19 yds)

• Derrick Henry - 18 for 84 yds, 1 TD (Wk 1 - 13 for 46 yds, 1 TD)

• Kyler Murray - 17/21 for 266 yds, 3 TDs (59 yds rushing) (Wk 1 - 162 passing yds, 1 TD (57 yds rushing))

• Joe Burrow - 23/36 for 258 yds, 2 TDs (Wk 1 - 164 passing yds (15 yds rushing))

• Trey McBride - 6/6 for 67 yds (Wk 1 - 5/9 for 30 yds)

An abundance of players cost managers week 1, but none of them cost a championship. More important than a player’s performance is an assessment of their team environment (neutral pass rate, QB play, OLine rating, defense, etc.). This is the purpose of the Team SITREPs preceding the player Bona Fides and Bulletins. Certain situations are more worrisome (Tua’s concussions) in terms of how they will affect other assets, making it all the more critical to consider various scenarios and possible outcomes. In these situations, The Agency advises: 

• Steadfast Patience - Agents plan, adapt, and regroup when a situation doesn’t go their way. Do not force the issue - better to look forward to the next opportunity than try to fix the current one. There will always be more opportunities. 

• Don’t Blow Your Cover - Stop seeking trades or putting players on the block in the wake of any negative news. If you have to convince your trade partner of something you wouldn’t do personally, you’re operating out of desperation. Your leaguemates will smell the blood in the water and they will come to dismantle your team of its best assets. 

SITREP - Failed States

In the most extreme and final phase of failure, the following organizations can no longer protect their players from the doom they face every Sunday, and they have lost all respect from their citizen fans. In the world of fantasy, players on these teams should be avoided like the plague, albeit a few elite players who can withstand the calamity of these franchises. 

Panthers - Much will be said of Bryce Young’s horrific QB play, but people who know football will discern he has been nothing more than a puppet leader of a horrifically run franchise. Their defense can't generate pressure, can't cover, & is devoid of talent. This side of the ball will be the Achilles heel of the team if they can't stop opposing teams & if the Panthers are down multiple scores early on. This forces the offense to be in catch-up mode early on.

Bryce looks shell-shocked trying to operate Canales’ offense. Completely unsettled, he tends to overthrow his receivers, often resulting in picks. I've never seen an offense with so many beta's; absolutely no explosive playmakers. There will be no chance of a run game if the team continues to be down by 3 TDs heading into halftime.

Instead of looking forward to the latter half of the season, the Panthers should be looking forward to next season.

**UPDATE** A new hero has risen to end the brutal tenure of Bryce Young. Despite Bryce being one of our top-rated QBs out of college, there is only so much torture a human can withstand, and the most merciful thing for Bryce is to be benched by Canales. Young still has a future somewhere else. As someone who lost their soul long ago in Cincinnati, Dalton can be thrown out to the wolves without sympathy or a second thought. The difference at QB will be night and day with the ghost mercenary who has nothing to lose. Is he good enough to elevate this team out of the Failed State tier? No, he's not God. Will he keep it close against a stretch of subpar teams and have some QB1 performances? Absolutely! Diontae, Chuba, and the rest of the Panthers' playmakers are no longer unstartable.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.44 (22nd in NFL), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 76.7 (5th), RunBlk = 62.5 (21st), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Bryce Young = 31.8 (38th, Dead Last), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 65 (24th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 12.2 pts (31st), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 53.7 (32nd), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 24.3 pts (17th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 4.1 pts (32nd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 47.6 (32nd), RunD = 51.3 (26th), PassRsh = 49.9 (32nd), Cov = 49.9 (28th), (Courtesy PFF) 

Upcoming Schedule - At LV, home vs CIN, at CHI, home vs ATL, at WAS, at DEN, home vs NO, home vs NYG, home vs KC  

Giants - The PFF grade doesn’t match what we saw from the Giants' offensive line. The line plays like they hate their QB, inviting every pass-rusher to a free lane to smash their signal caller. When he's not getting killed, Daniel Jones throws like he's cross-eyed, routinely missing WRs by wide margins. Malik Nabers is the lone bright spot of this team, but we fear that his talent isn't enough to overcome the ineptitude of this offense. The Giants' 4th-highest WR Fantasy Usage speaks to how exceptional Malik is as a talent. Brian Burns left a Hellhole in Carolina only to wind up in Purgatory in New York.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.42 (25th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 76.3 (5th), RunBlk = 49.6 (30th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Daniel Jones = 61.1 (21st), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 69.5 (18th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 14.9 pts (29th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 62.3 (22nd), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 35.4 pts (4th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 6.3 pts (18th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 61.4 (19th), RunD = 52.1 (25th), PassRsh = 66.2 (14th), Cov = 62.8 (20th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - At CLE, home vs DAL, at SEA, home vs CIN, home vs PHI, at PIT, home vs WAS, at CAR, home vs TB  

Commanders - Jayden Daniels’ is in a very tough spot: he has an awful offensive line and his receivers are usually covered. This leads to him tucking and running on most plays, which often results in big chunk plays for the talented rushing QB. The Commanders are completely devoted to their two-headed rushing attack with Brian Robinson and Daniels as the entirety of their offense. Their commitment to the run-game is impressive considering how many points they can be down thanks to their infamous defense. We would like to recommend the Medal of Honor for the bravery and valor Terry McLaurin has demonstrated for so many years in one of the most hostile environments in all of sports.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.49 (13th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 63.5 (21st), RunBlk = 55.8 (27th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Daniel Jones = 47.7 (32nd), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 76.6 (8th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 22.6 pts (7th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 65.7 (16th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 18.9 pts (27th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 6 pts (19th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 52.5 (31st), RunD = 65 (11th), PassRsh = 54.9 (29th), Cov = 44 (32nd), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - At CIN, at ARI, home vs CLE, at BAL, home vs CAR, home vs CHI, at NYG, home vs PIT, at PHI  

Broncos - Every drop back to pass looks like an impending car wreck with how often their receivers are blown up on slant routes. Unfortunately, it appears short passes and dump-offs are the only things Bo Nix can handle at this point. Anything further than 20 yards down the field would likely result in Bo Nix losing the interception battle to Hellmann’s Brains of the Turnover Titans. The Broncos line ranks dead last in run blocking, ruining any chance of a viable RB to operate outside of pass-catching opportunities. With Audric Estime on IR, there aren't any players on the Broncos that strike fear into opposing defenses.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.46 (19th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 62.1 (22nd), RunBlk = 42 (32nd), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Bo Nix = 41.6 (37th, last if you don’t count Bryce Young), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 56.3 (31st), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 17.3 pts (25th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 56 (29th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 29.4 pts (10th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 8.2 pts (12th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 54.4 (29th), RunD = 52.7 (23rd), PassRsh = 64.5 (18th), Cov = 55.3 (27th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - At TB, at NYJ, home vs LV, home vs LAC, at NO, home vs CAR, at BAL, at KC, home vs ATL  

Jaguars - The Jaguars have the QB & head coach to compete for a playoff spot. The wide gap between their expectations and on-field product makes them the most disappointing team of this tier. The offensive line makes Trevor Lawrence worse than he is. Etienne’s performance is concerning compared to his #3 RB level of play in 2023. With Evan Engram out with a hamstring injury and Christian Kirk taking notes from ETN, the lone bright spot of this offense is Brian Thomas Jr. He is in a race to be one of the best rookies in 2024. The reign of Trevor Targaryen does not look promising in 2024.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.24 (32nd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 59.4 (25th), RunBlk = 51.3 (29th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Trevor Lawrence = 69.4 (12th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 80.6 (4th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 19.8 pts (15th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 63.1 (21st), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 20.2 pts (24th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 8.3 pts (11th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 59.2 (21st), RunD = 54.3 (22nd), PassRsh = 66.1 (15th), Cov = 58.9 (22nd), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - At BUF, at HOU, home vs IND, at CHI, home vs NE, home vs GB, at PHI, home vs MIN, at DET   

Titans - Is the Titan's defense elite? Not according to PFF. It appears that this is a trick of the mind, mainly due to their herculean efforts to cover up the treachery perpetrated by their saboteur QB, who has achieved new heights of destruction never thought possible. Despite a subpar offensive line and an average cast of playmakers, Levis’s policy of turnovers is unconscionable and will not stand for much longer. Pick up Mason Rudolph now for free in Dynasty Best Ball leagues.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.47 (17th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 57.6 (26th), RunBlk = 64 (17th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Will Levis = 42.1 (36th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 74.2 (13th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 20.6 pts (12th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 60.1 (26th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 20.8 pts (22nd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 5.4 pts (24th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 54.1 (30th), RunD = 39.8 (31st), PassRsh = 60.2 (25th), Cov = 62.8 (20th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - home vs GB, at MIA, home vs IND, at BUF, at DET, home vs NE, at LAC, home vs MIN, at HOU  

Browns - With plenty of offensive talent and an elite defense, the Browns have the best overall roster in this tier. This team lives and dies (mainly dies) off of the erratic play of their QB, Deshaun Watson. Contributing to the lethargy of this offense is the lack of health of key linemen. Watson has used his legs to compensate and looked to newcomer Jerry Judy in critical situations, but this isn't enough. The Browns can beat most teams when playing at their best, but we have little confidence Watson will consistently put his best foot forward.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.62 (2nd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 56.3 (27th), RunBlk = 67.2 (13th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Deshaun Watson = 68.6 (14th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 61.5 (26th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 19 pts (19th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 55.2 (30th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 32.7 pts (5th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 5.8 pts (20th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 73.4 (8th), RunD = 60.7 (13th), PassRsh = 77.7 (3rd), Cov = 73.7 (9th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - Home vs NYG, at LV, at WAS, at PHI, home vs CIN, home vs BAL, home vs LAC, at NO, home vs PIT

Works Cited

• PFF

• NFL Week 2 Recap - Fantasy Usage Model by Hayden Winks

https://underdognetwork.com/football/analysis/nfl-week-2-recap-fantasy-usage-model-2024

The Dossier

Image created by ATM

Week 3 Waiver Targets

Waiver Targets

The South Harmon Agency has more high-tier operatives gathering intel than ever before. Be sure to keep your channel open and collect data from the various sources as it comes in. In terms of FAAB bidding, review your league’s previous waiver behavior to navigate the wire best. The waiver wire will become more bare as the season continues, especially in best ball formats.

ReDraft (most of these players will be rostered in Dynasty leagues)

• Braelon Allen - 21% rostership, 12-15% FAAB (Jumped from 18% to 35% snap share in wk. 2 and turned the increased opportunity into 2 TDs. If Breece ever misses time, Allen has RB1 potential)

• Alec Pierce - 23% rostership, 10-13% FAAB (There’s no way the 3rd yr player keeps up this breakout pace, but take a shot on him in case we’re wrong)

• Andrei Iosivas - 15% rostership, 10-12% FAAB (Not sure what his role will be once Higgins returns, but the Bengals looked a lot better in Wk. 2, & Iosivas looks like a top redzone target for Burrow)

• Kareem Hunt - 0% rostership, 8-10% FAAB (Pacheco is out for 6-8 wks with a fractured fibula. Steele & Perine aren’t good. CEH is MIA. Hunt had 10 top-36 RB performances in 2023. Now he’s back in a Chiefs uniform.)

• Quentin Johnston - 16% rostership, spend 8-10% FAAB (The Poster Child of Busts is no longer looking like one of the worst fantasy picks of all time)

• Jalen Nailor - 4% rostership, 5-8% FAAB (with injuries now to both JJ & Addison, Nailor finds himself as the #1 on a dangerous looking Vikings team behind Sam Darnold - never expected to write this)

• Jalen Tolbert - 6% rostership, 5-8% FAAB (Tolbert & Cooks could very easily trade weeks as the #2 in this high-powered offense. There’s also the chance Cooks could miss time at some point this season.)

• Mike Gesicki - 10% rostership, 5-7% FAAB (The Bengals have never prioritized their TEs, but that could all change this yr.)

Dynasty

• Andy Dalton - 9% rostership, 25-30% FAAB (You should already have him holstered, but if he’s somehow available, you pony up to acquire him. He was the QB7 in week 3 last yr and won’t relinquish the starting role for the ROS. If you need a QB3, send up to 2x 3rds via trade.)

• Josh Reynolds - 53% rostership, 8-10% FAAB (Bo Nix doesn’t look the greatest, but Reynolds deserves to be rostered as the #2 option in a team that will look to pass a lot when behind)

• D’Onta Foreman - 45% rostership, 8-10% FAAB (Consistently overlooked, Foreman always finds himself on the field with a decent share of the opportunities. Surprised to see him out-touch Ford 15 to 8)

• Atwell/Whittington - 34% & 71% rostership, 5-8% FAAB (The Rams WR room has come under attack. Look for Tutu & Jordan to be the top receivers if Robinson & Tyler go down to injury in wk. 3)

• Noah Brown - 32% rostership, 5% FAAB in Best Ball only (Jayden & The Commanders are obsessed with running, but in a given week Noah has the potential to be a top 2-3 receiving option for the team)

The Dossier

Image created by ATM

Week 1 Dossier

Surprise Attack!

Hey, maybe you haven't been keeping up on current events, but we just got our asses kicked, pal!

Hudson - Aliens

Tora! Tora! Tora!

2024 is my year! This isn’t JUST some mantra you’ve made up in your head, like some “self-help” BS. No, you worked your ass off this entire Summer with the countless hours of YouTube you’ve binged!  This year’s championship won’t be yours because you earned it… you were CALLED to it. Like a sacred trust, this responsibility falls to you because no one else was born to bear such a heavy burden as you. 

Thursday evening rolls in and you can barely contain what you have waited months to unleash on every poor soul in your leagues. This is just another BUG Hunt! I’m gonna lay waste to these mofo’s-

• Mark Andrews - 2/2 for 14 yds

• Travis Kelce - 3/4 for 34 yds

• Dalton Kincaid - 1/2 for 11 yds

• Trey McBride - 5/9 for 30 yds

• Evan Engram - 1/4 for 5 yds

• Jake Ferguson - 3/5 for 15 yds and hurt

Those are TEs! Of course, I wasn’t dumb enough to invest early capital in them! If you take a look at my elite wide-

• Amon-Ra St. Brown - 3/6 for 13 yds

• Puka Nacua - 4/4 for 35 yds and on IR

• Marvin Harrison Jr - 1/3 for 4 yds

• Chris Olave - 2/2 for 11 yds

• Brandon Aiyuk - 2/5 for 28 yds

• Drake London - 2/3 for 15 yds

• Michael Pittman Jr - 4/8 for 31 yds

• DK Metcalf - 3/4 for 29 yds

• Zay Flowers - 6/10 for 37 yds

• Amari Cooper - 2/9 for 16 yds

• Terry McLaurin - 2/4 for 17 yds

• All of the Bears Receivers

But wait, if they played bad, that means….. Oh God, MY SUPERFLEX QBs!!!

• Kyler Murray - 162 passing yds, 1 TD (57 yds rushing)

• Caleb Williams - 93 passing yds (15 yds rushing)

• Brock Purdy - 231 passing yds (11 yds rushing)

• Joe Burrow - 164 passing yds (15 yds rushing)

• Trevor Lawrence - 162 passing yds, 1 TD (8 yds rushing)

• Justin Herbert - 144 passing yds, 1 TD (6 yds rushing)

• Kirk Cousins - 155 passing yds, 1 TD, 2 INTs

• Deshaun Watson - 169 passing yds, 1 TD, 2 INTs (39 yds rushing)

• Aaron Rodgers - 167 passing yds, 1 TD, 1 INT (-1 yds rushing) 

• Daniel Jones - 186 passing yds, 2 INTs (15 yds rushing)

• Bo Nix - 138 passing yds, 2 INTs (35 yds rushing, 1 TD)

• Will Levis - 127 passing yds, 1 TD, 2 INTs (36 yds rushing)

• Bryce Young - 161 yds passing, 2 INTs (12 yds rushing, 1 TD)

That makes no sense! If all of the QBs played poorly and all the WRs and TEs suffered because of it, then who the hell scored all the points in week 1?! 

• Saquon Barkley - 132 total yds, 3 total TDs

• De’Von Achane - 100 total yds, 1 TD

• Joe Mixon - 178 total yds, 1 TD

• Kenneth Walker III - 109 total yds, 1 TD

• Alvin Kamara - 110 total yds, 1 TD

• Rhamondre Stevenson - 126 total yds, 1 TD

• Aaron Jones - 109 total yds, 1 TD

• Jordan Mason - 152 total yds, 1 TD 

• J.K. Dobbins - 139 total yds, 1 TD - HE HAS RISEN!

HA! You thought you figured out fantasy football, didn’t ya?! Every piece of data and every single person in the space has championed WRs and a bounce back for QBs in 2024. Turns out the move was to scoop up all the value that fell at RB, especially in the early-mid rounds.

To be clear, I am obviously overreacting to Week 1. What other coping mechanism do I have when crumpling up my early retirement speach (my retirement, my spouse would still work)? Luckily for most people, just about everyone in your league suffered lower scoring. When looking at the first six rounds of SF Dynasty Startup ADP: 

Standard Scoring, SF, 0 TE premium -  

• Only 9 of the top 17 QBs scored above 15 pts (52.9%)

• 7 of the top 18 RBs scored above 15 pts (38.9%)

• 6 of the top 29 WRs scored above 15 pts (20.7%)

• 1 of the top 8 TEs scored above 10 pts (12.5%)

Don’t panic, its only week 1. Defenses have the edge early in the season while teams acclimate to their new offenses and players continue to develop chemistry with one another (or so they say). Worst case scenario, you grow impatient and by week 3 you have to trade away Amon-Ra St. Brown for the incredible haul of Jordan Mason, Derek Carr, Baker Mayfield, J.K. Dobbins, Allen Lazard, Alec Pierce, Isaiah Likely, and Foster Moreau. 

Waiver Targets

The South Harmon Agency has more high-tier operatives gathering intel than ever before. Be sure to keep your channel open and collect data from the various sources as it comes in. In terms of FAAB bidding, review your league’s previous waiver behavior to navigate the wire best. The waiver wire will become more bare as the season continues, especially in best ball formats.

ReDraft (most of these players will be rostered in Dynasty leagues)

• Jordan Mason - 56% rostership, spend 20-35% FAAB (The Madden Curse is alive and well. Mason is an RB1 on this SF team for every calamity that befalls CMC)

• Brandin Cooks - 39% rostership, spend 15-20% FAAB (With Ferguson hurt, Cooks is the clear #2 on an offense looking to repeat as the highest-passing team in the league)

• Rashid Shaheed - 44% rostership, 15-20% FAAB (Perfect upside player for Best Ball formats, his only issue has been staying consistently healthy)

• Demarcus Robinson - 12% rostership, 12-15% FAAB (The #2 on a high-powered offense as long as Puka is out and was a league winner last year)

• Greg Dortch - 11% rostership, 12-15% FAAB (A favorite target for Kyler and has proven to be a reliable player with past play)

• Tank Bigsby - 11% rostership, 10-12% FAAB (very surprising considering how bad he was last year but an offseason of “chopping wood” and other types of Mr. Miyagi training seems to have done him a world of good)

• Bucky Irving - 25% rostership, 10% FAAB (great project profile, but draft capital, landing spot, and size were all previous deterring factors. If he continues dominant play, the Bucs will have to play him more despite the same skillset as White)

• Justice Hill - 12% rostership, 8-10% FAAB Best Ball only (Will likely only out-snap King Henry in negative game scripts but the Ravens have always loved Hill for his versatility as runner and pass-catcher)

• Alexander Mattison - 10% rostership, 8-10% FAAB (Mattison > Zamir, plus Alex has pass-catching upside)

• Tucker Kraft - 6% rostership, 8-10% FAAB (Has apparently supplanted Luke Musgrave as the Packers TE1, but it doesn’t matter until Love is healthy again)

• Wan’Dale Robinson - 19% rostership, 5-8% FAAB (has the #2 role locked up behind Nabers, but it's the Giants…)

• Jalen McMillan - 13% rostership, 5-8% FAAB (If Baker continues his high level of play, the WR3 could have some decent weeks, especially in Best Ball)

Dynasty

• Tyler Johnson - 0% rostership, 3-5% FAAB in Best Ball only (Only has appeal as long as Puka is out and has competition with Kupp, Robinson, Colby, & Whittington)

• Jalen Nailor - 34% rostership, 5% FAAB (outside of JJ, the offense is wide open to opportunity with so many key pass-catchers hurt)

A Taste of Things to Come

Here is what you can expect from the weekly Dossier this season:

Team Situation Reports (SITREP) - Replacing the commonly utilized “Game Recap,” Field Agents can expect breakdowns of the NFL into 4 Tiers of Team Rankings: Superpowers, Besieged Powers, Depressed States, and Failed States. Beginning with the Failed State Franchises, you’ll receive an overview of the team’s performances, critical Usage Activity reports for players, and actionable projections. Each team will receive two SITREPs throughout the season. 

Bona Fides - The South Harmon Agency has the most rigorous testing program for each cornerstone position in fantasy football. Data pertains to the top-ranking players in each statistical category of major importance. Field Agents can begin pursuing high-value assets for their championship missions with this intel.

Agency Bulletin - These assets are heavily vetted by our intelligence officers and qualify as our highest-priority trade candidates based on performance, value, and rest-of-season projections. The Agency looks to continue building on the high success rate of last year’s campaign.

Field Reports - Classified Reports from the Agency’s Department of Intelligence & Field Operations. These in-depth manuals combine the latest analytical research, strategies, and tactics for our highest-tiered operatives.     

Your Superior Officers will be in contact with you throughout the 2024 mission. Good luck.  

The Dossier

Image created by ATM

Underdog 40,000

Part 3 - TE & WR Hits, Misses, and Projections

The Green God

The stir of infected winds howled as the Space Marine labored through the trenches. Once a place of deafening destruction and incessant frenzy was now hollow with mumbled groans and subdued anguish. The marine’s armor sunk deep into the blackened mud as he kneeled beside one of his comrades. The stricken soldier was immobile, albeit the frequent shudders of mind-numbing pain, often progressing into convulsions of indescribable agony. The fallen soldier’s skin was translucent and pale, as fragile as dead, soiled leaves. His body was covered with pockets of sunken yellowed sores. His milk-white eyes rolled restlessly as he clung to life until his labored breath came to an abrupt standstill. 

Every marine that lived through the initial onslaught and saw the Virus Bomb fall was now at various stages of the same affliction. Their forces overrun by Tyranids, the Imperium saw no alternative than to unleash their bioweapon upon the planet’s surface as the final solution. The bomb was dropped with one legion holding out as the final remnant of defense. No order of retreat was given to the soldiers. The weapon was designed to wipe out all non-human combatants instantly, which it did to great effect. Unfortunately, any member of the Imperium caught in the winds of its fallout suffered a maligned and drawn-out death.     

“There is no honor in this,” the marine said as he stared at his dead comrade. “The Imperium has abandoned us. Forgotten by the Emperor Himself. What is left other than for us to vanish completely out of memory and into death?”

“Do not lose heart brother, all must come to rot and ruin before they can be reborn,” the dead soldier muttered with cold breath.

The Space Marine recoiled in horror, “What DEVILRY is this!?”

“Devilry? Ha!” the corpse laughed, its throat choking with phlegm. “My embrace is the most natural phenomenon in all of Creation. I welcome everyone into my home and to eat from my garden,” the dead soldier smiled.

“Who are you?”

“I am the caretaker of castaways, Lord of Decay, shepherd of the dead, and father of the TE.”

“HERESY! TEs are a pestilent position!” the Space Marine said spitefully. “A plague upon the Tournament of Mania!”

• They are the first to suffer from any poor offense

• (2024 = Sanders, Theo, Chig, Dissly)

• So many are overshadowed by the other weapons on offense

• (2024 = Jonnu, Goedert, Colby, Otton, Fant, Kmet, Gesiki, Schultz, Musgrave)

• It’s only when the #1 receiver is hurt that they rise to championship-level production

• (2024 = Bowers, Ferguson, Taysom, Freirmuth, Engram)

• So often are they overlooked and misused by their coaches

• 2023 = Pitts, Dulcich, Chig, Gesicki, Fant (2024 = Freirmuth, Jonnu, Dulcich, Fant, Gesicki)

• They can be overtaken by younger, more explosive backups

• 2023 = Ertz (2024 = Ertz)

• Rarely do they become the top redzone option on offenses

• 2023 = Hunter, Musgrave (2024 = Ertz, Conklin, Bowers) 

“And where do you find yourself, servant of the Imperium? Mere weeks ago, you were a proud Legion of the Emperor, feeding off of destruction. But now, as your body swells with foul disease and your wounds rip open to welcome new infections, you have become so much more glorious! You have found a greater purpose in your darkest hour.” 

“Greater purpose?” the marine inquired.

“The Imperium may have dropped the bomb on this planet, but by whose power were your allies and enemies brought to putrescence? With every tragedy, you have fought against me, and with every hardship, I have been by your side. I have reached from the muck and mire to increase the weight of your burden, so that day by day you would grow stronger. This testing is the only way to become what all mankind fears most: death.”

“You are a daemon! Here to torture me in my final moments with your poisoned words!”

“I take no pleasure in such things son. I am a god of joy and laughter, not of doom or despair. My children know that each moment is a gift. That is why I have come. To show you.”

“Show me what?”

The dead soldier’s necrotic hand slowly reached toward the Space Marine’s face. The transition was instant. The marine was standing over his own dead body. “I am the Lord of Life and Rot,” said the voice in the soldier’s head. Time passed quickly in the vision. His once lustrous armor quickly browned with rust. “You wave my color green proudly in your banners. But the moment I bloom beneath your skin, you bleed me out.” His skin was alive with flesh-eating bacteria. “Red is the color of your wrath, but green is what your wrath leaves behind.” All that remained was a skeleton, worn down by time. “My decay shall strip your flesh. My verdigris in all of its shades and hues shall cover your skull. Everything you hold dear eventually comes back to me. In the end, I am an inevitability that all must face. All I need is time.”

Image created by T-Rock using Midjourney

“What do you want from me?” the marine asked.

“I want you to forget no insult or forgive any slight. Let your bitterness fester and your blood boil. Champion what they hate most. Become a steward of the TE and let your fury spread as a virulent plague across the galaxy. Or, you can spend what little time you have left, wallowing in pain and sorrow.”   

The marine peeled his glare away from the Lord of Pestilence and stared down the entrenchment. He was the last living member of his legion. “What must I do?” he finally responded.

“You must:

• Recognize the teams that funnel their offenses through their TE 

• (2024 = Andrews, Kincaid)

• Foresee the offenses that are an RB injury away from a pass-heavy offense

• (2024 = Ferguson, Kittle, Kincaid, Conklin, Bowers, Njoku, Musgrave, Conklin)

• Not fear the aging veteran, but expect a steady volume

• (2024 = Kelce, Andrews)

• Count on steady volume from solid offenses

• (2024 = Kelce, Andrews, LaPorta, McBride, Kincaid, Ferguson, Kittle, Pitts, Ferguson, Conklin, Freirmuth)

“Finally, you must entrust your spirit to me,” the Plaguefather continued. “I will take away all misery and all despair. I will raise your brothers from the dead and give them a new life, free of suffering.” 

“Our enemies shall wither and die. The Imperium shall wither and die. The universe shall fall into corruption and from the rot and ruin the Lord of All shall rise,” replied the Plague Marine.

Weaknesses of the Flesh

A man can have anything if he is willing to sacrifice. No other place in the universe tests this principle greater than the Dark Prince’s Realm. Those who enter will not encounter grotesque adversaries of mammoth strength guarding its borders. Nor will they be forced to brave treacherous environments. Such overt obstacles of rebuff serve no purpose here. Instead, the God of Pleasure treats all visitors as honored guests, inviting them to indulge every hunger, gratify every lust, and pursue every whim of desire. A domain of excess and splendor, it draws in all those who wish to experience the spectacular heights of the WR position, and ensnares everyone who falls prey to its many pitfalls. To prove mastery over his flesh, the Primarch approached the first circle of corruption.

Trees of silver and tall fields of gold shimmered brilliantly in the sunlight as the Primarch walked by. Their metallic exteriors sang hypnotically as they swayed back and forth in the cool afternoon breeze. The precious flora grew from a soil of ruby that stretched for miles toward a horizon of sapphire peaks. Just as beautiful as this merchant’s paradise was the gentle voice in the wind that welcomed the Primarch.

“Ahh, a son of the Emperor. No one of your stature has ever graced my realm before,” she said elegantly. “Come with me and explore the treasure of my fields, Primarch. Store up for yourself riches beyond measure. With this wealth, one can truly pave their way in the Tournament with the backing of the WR.”

• Spend up for the top options in high-performing offenses

• (2024 = Lamb, Tyreek, Amon-Ra, Chase, AJ, Aiyuk, Nico, MHJ, Garrett, Pittman)

• Do not worry about any offseason changes. You will have security in these elite options. 

• (2024 = Olave, Adams, Evans, McLaurin, DK, Amari)

• Seek the WRs that can operate at all levels of the field as the major receiving option

• (2024 = McLaurin, Olave)

“For many men, fortune is a sea that keeps them afloat during uncertainty. A tide that brings them to new ventures. But more often, it is treacherous swell, tossing them back and forth with its waves of worry, and seeking to pull men down under its crushing pressure,” replied the Primarch. His armored boots constantly kicked loose gemstones that lined the flawless diamond pathway. 

• Do not overlook age as a significant factor

• (2024 = Keenan, Diggs, Ridley, Hopkins, Lockett, Cooks)

• Do not discount high-passing offenses with funneled targets

• (2024 = Lamb, Amon-Ra, Chase, MHJ)

• Do not underestimate line issues or quarterback injuries 

• (2024 = Nabers, McLaurin, Olave, Kirk, Chase, Amari, Palmer)

• Do not overlook the unique and explosive players on amazing offenses

• (2024 = Waddle, Worthy, Flowers)

It wasn’t long until the narrow road was littered with the remains of past visitors, who refused to let go of their prized possessions, and were crushed under the weight of their material greed.

The Primarch continued into the second circle, led by the heavenly aroma of smoked meat that wafted through the air. He entered a great hall, dimly lit by candlelight, where a solitary chair was seated at the head of a vast banquet table. Each plate of food was decadently presented, each dish masterfully executed, and each morsel perfectly balanced. 

Image created by T-Rock using Midjourney

“Come and dine with me, son of the Imperium,” the voice invited. “Take your ease and eat from my table. Drink and bring gladness to your heart. You will need your strength in the Tournament.”

• Enjoy these alpha receivers who excelled on less impressive offenses

• (2024 = Jefferson, Adams, Nabers, DK, McLaurin, Amari, Pickens, Diontae, Sutton)

• Delight in those who benefited from injuries to their WR teammates

• (2024 = Aiyuk, Olave, Flowers, Pittman, Moore/Rome, Rice/Worthy, BTJ, Polk)    

• Look forward to offenses that will perform exceptionally well under new QBs

• (2024 = DJ/Rome/Keenan, McLaurin, Pickens, London, Garrett)      

“What are these foods compared to the dish served after a hard-fought battle? The meal enjoyed with comrades? The feast you prepare for your son on his name day?” he replied.

• Anticipate WRs who emerge as focal points despite various challenges

• (2024 = MHJ, Rome, Nabers, BTJ)

• Avoid WRs with nagging injuries and fade on explosive offenses

• (2024 = Waddle, Tank, Downs)

• Prepare for some offenses to dip from the previous year and become less consistent 

• (2024 = Cooks, Curtis/Shakir, Amari, Evans/Godwin)

• Some WRs will feast as the only weapon on struggling offenses

• (2024 = Jefferson, Nabers, Diontae, Palmer, Polk)

The plating became increasingly chaotic and haphazardly prepared as the Primarch continued past the foul buffet. At the end of the long table, flickers of suspended chandeliers revealed flayed and charred flesh of an all-too-familiar form. Yesterday’s guest had become today’s meal for the next trencherman to gorge their voracious appetites.     

Exiting the great dining hall, moonlight shined on the Primarch as he entered the grounds of a serene palace garden that stretched into the night sky. The royal garden was tremendous in scope, filled with an endless labyrinth of exotic greenery, tranquil pools, and discreet paths fit for a king to seclude themselves in meditation. The Primarch came to the edge of a grand staircase, overlooking the palatial backyard. At the foot of its steps was gathered a large host of the Imperium. Dressed in ceremonial uniform, his comrades and kin honored the Primarch’s triumphant entry with reverent applause. Descending the marble steps, he entered the massed throng of rank and nobility. Hidden amongst the faces of the crowd, the Lord of Excess whispered, “Well done, faithful son of the Imperium. You have brought great honor to your father, the Emperor. Your achievements will be immortalized forever through monuments and songs. Write your name in the stars and take your rightful place as the WR champion.”

• Rely upon these secondary options in elite offenses

• (2024 = Waddle, Deebo, DeVonta, Kupp, Diggs, Higgins, Cooks)

• Be satisfied with these tertiary options

• (2024 = Tolbert, Shakir, Robinson, Iosivas, Dortch, Gipson)    

• Celebrate these consistent receivers and their solidified roles

• (2024 = DeVonta, DJ, Deebo, Keenan, Kupp, Godwin, Reed, Cooks, Downs, Curtis, DeMario, Wan’Dale, Boyd, Dortch, Gipson)      

The Primarch replied, “These monuments are dust and these songs are merely words, soon forgotten. The calibre of a man runs reverse to their need to make their worth known. The strong are strongest alone!”

• Their QB’s poor play will cap their potential

• (2024 = Jefferson, Malik, Diontae, Ridley, Amari)

• These WRs will struggle under the spotlight of the WR1 role

• (2024 = Flowers, Keon, Pickens, Polk)

• Inconsistency will hamper their 2024 campaign 

• (2024 = Waddle, Watson/Doubs/Reed, London, Sutton)

• Disappointing offenses will unfairly label these WRs as busts

• (2024 = Ladd, Keon, Legette, Franklin)

In an instant, the once lively party fell deathly silent. Each member of the multitude had become a statue of ash that soon collapsed under their weight, creating a vast plain of black soot. The pure white sculptures that once adorned the maze of vegetation had lost all luster. Their dignified poses twisted into horrifying expressions. The peaceful flow of fountains ceased. The venerable garden was now an unnerving graveyard.

The Primarch continued his journey and entered the dark woods at the edge of the decadent estate. With no glow from the moon filtering through the dense tree canopy, the path was lost in the pitch-black forest.

Image created by T-Rock using Midjourney

After hours of walking, the Primarch emerged from the cursed grove and gazed upon a magnificent ocean, caught in the solemnity of a twilight sky. The Primarch had reached the presumed last circle of the Dark Prince’s Realm. He wandered through the soft sands of its heavenly shores until he finally stopped to admire the sunrise in all of its glory as night departed. Caught in its rapture, the final temptation could be heard in between the crashing of the waves.

“Oh, devoted son of the Imperium. You have known nothing but war and sacrifice,” she said warmly. “Your body is spent and your soul is weary. You have nothing left to give. Come to me and I will take away all of your pain. Struggle will be but a distant memory. Unburden yourself of your heavy armor. Retire your arms from service. Your fight is over. Peace and rest is yours at last.”  

• Rest assured, these options will have little competition

• (2024 = Olave, Nabers, McLaurin, Ladd/Palmer)    

• Look forward to these offenses taking a big leap forward with their receivers

• (2024 = Colts, Bears, Cardinals, Falcons, Seahawks, Chiefs) 

“Rest? We were not made to rest. I have no concern for home or hearth, such things are vanity. My privilege is the dirt, my birthright is suffering, and my freedom is war. Peace? There is no such thing amongst the stars, only an eternity of carnage and slaughter. Find someone else to enslave!” the Primarch laughed at the Thirsting God.

• Expect these WRs to develop into excellent route runners on great offenses

• (2024 = Amon-Ra, Puka, London, Pittman, Nico, DJ, Waddle)

• Have confidence the head coach will transform these receivers into #1’s

• (2024 = Pittman, Rice)

• Their skillsets pair uniquely well with their upgraded QBs 

• (2024 = Garrett, London, McLaurin, Pickens)

Image created by T-Rock using Midjourney

instrumentum

Image created by T-Rock using Midjourney. Perfected by ATM

This series is dedicated to my brother Malik, the Hellhound Primarch

Underdog 40,000

Part 2 - RB & QB Hits, Misses, and Projections

The WoRP

Doubt. Remorse. Fear. These emotions are held back through relentless training and devotion to the Imperium. But in a soldier’s final breaths, the dam they built can come crashing down, flooding their minds with despair. These brief moments of anguish perpetuate into an eternity of torment as the Sea of Chaos sweeps away their souls into the WoRP. Once a peaceful realm, millennia of war and evil have corrupted the WoRP dimension into a hellish landscape, with each new resident being more vile than the previous.

Image created by T-Rock using Midjourney

Presiding over this underworld are the Gods of Chaos. Representing the four cornerstone positions, each god has inspired a cult following within the Imperium, and untold billions who have given their lives to the deities. Recognition from the gods as a champion of the faith is the highest honor for a follower. Their reward is a divine blessing of unnatural powers in life and rank among their demonic legions in death. But garnering attention from supreme beings is no easy feat. If ever allowed to kneel before their thrones, each soldier must recount every victory they fought for and every failure they suffered in the Tournament of Mania.

Blood & Bone

The distinct rev of chainswords and cries of battle were all around the solider. Man versus Demon. Apostate against Mutant. The RB Truthers were locked in an eternal skirmish under a crimson sky, from which a ceaseless torrent of skulls rained down. Stretching into the horizon were hills of decaying faces surrounded by an endless ocean of bone and flesh. These were the trophies claimed by the RB Truthers in the Tournament of Mania for their god. He loomed in the distance, as large as a mountain underneath the falling cascade of ivory and marrow upon a throne of brass and skulls. With gauntlets of blackened armor, the figure raised a colossal sword and brought it crashing down upon his bloodstained court, initiating the dreadful proceedings for the newly departed soldier.

Image created by T-Rock using Midjourney

“BREAK! RIP! TEAR!” the god’s voice roared. “With shoulders of iron, charge the enemy lines! With unbridled strength, hold back the enemy's advance! With ravenous anger, trample underfoot every foe in your path!!!”

Then came a great shout from the battlefield, “Blood for the Blood God! Skulls for the Skull Throne!”

The Blood God bellowed in laughter as he slowly turned his attention to the latest reinforcement for the perpetual conflict. “And YOU! What spoils do you bring ME?!”

“God of War!” the soldier shouted. “I have done great honor to the RB in the Great Tournament!”

• I sought out consistent, central fixtures of offenses

• 2023 = CMC & Henry (2024 = Henry, Kamara)

• I raised up the dual-threat weapon that operated in the top offenses and received ample opportunities

• 2023 = CMC & Kyren (2024 = CMC & Jacobs)

• I foresaw backups usurping starters

• 2023 = Hubbard (2024 = Spears & Dowdle)

• I can envision workhorses who control the entire backfield on successful offenses

• (2024 = CMC, Breece, Saquon, Henry, JT, Jacobs, Pacheco, Mixon, ETN, White)

• I project little goal-line opportunities for a team that will look to pass in the redzone

• 2023 = Packers (2024 = Bears)

• Finally, I expect the following RBs to play well in rotation and profit from goal-line touches

• (2024 = Montgomery, Ray Davis, Gus Edwards)

“MORE! I NEED MORE!!!” barked the god in anger. “Here, there is no peace, only the time wasted between battles. And you have wasted my time with your failures to build my throne!”

• Could you not foresee the deterioration of an offense?

• (2024 = Singletary, Edwards)

• Did you believe this RB could handle being the Bell-Cow?

• (2024 = Zamir)

• Why didn’t you anticipate injury or lost touches to talented backups?

• (2024 = Gibbs, Kyren, Conner, Mostert, A. Jones, Swift)

• With so few WRs, could you not count on a run-heavy offense?

• (2024 = Breece, Henry, Cook, Kamara, Najee, Rhamondre, Robinson, Pollard, Singeltary, Chuba)

• You didn’t prioritize goal-line opportunities on the top offenses? 

• (2024 = CMC, Henry, Montgomery, Mostert, JT, Jacobs, Mixon, Kyren)

• You lost faith these RBs could not compensate for their rushing inefficiency with their catching prowess?

• (2024 = ETN, Cook, Jacobs, Kamara)

• You were not ready for the age cliff?

• (2024 = Mostert, Ekeler, Conner, Kamara, Mixon)

• You couldn’t discern the wide talent gap between the backup and the starter?

• (2024 = Charbonnet, Ekeler, Kendre)

• You fell victim to Preseason hype?

• (2024 = Steele, Wright, Vidal)

• Did you misjudge his potential role in an ambiguous backfield?

• (Chase Brown, Zeke)

“Master! Allow me to return to the Tournament of Mania! With this knowledge, I will spill more blood for your battlefield and claim more skulls for your throne,” the soldier cried out with his fist clenched.

“There are none who can stand in our way. None who can match our power. None who are feared more on the battlefield,” the Blood God boiled. “But you do not seek destruction, nor do you revel in gore you coward!” he snapped. “Wrath, fury, strength… these are the weapons my warriors use to wage war and shake the foundations of the WoRP! You are not fit to champion the way of the RB,” he said pointing at the soldier.   

“But master!” the soldier cried out as he was descended upon by the demonic servants forged in the hellscape.

Unworthy of the warrior’s paradise, the soldier’s soul was tossed into the infinite void of the WoRP stream, where he would be feasted upon for the rest of time.

The Maze of Madness

“How long have we wandered this labyrinth?” the reflection inquired. “Years? Days? Millennia?” asked the figure in the crystal walls. “Who are you again? Help me to recollect.”

The Commander gritted his teeth and dared not to look at his reflection in the mirrored walls of the maze.  “Through trial comes triumph,” he constantly recited. It was the latest in an endless loop of tormenting visions and living nightmares meant to tear the mind asunder. Such is the price when entering the Realm of the Sorcerer in pursuit of infinite knowledge. Nowhere else in the universe does chaos exist more purely than in the dimension of change, the domain of the Great Mutator.

“You’re not really here. This place is just a figment of your imagination,” the shadow continued. “You’re probably wandering through the trenches of a forgotten battlefield, raving to yourself like a shell-shocked maniac, waist-deep in corpses. You’ll never survive the Tournament of Mania!”

“I shall pass out of darkness and reach the light,” the Commander said to himself.

Turning a corner, the high-ranking soldier finally reached what he long sought. The ninth and final gate would grant passage out of the Crystal Labyrinth and into the Impossible Fortress. Hidden deep inside the castle was the legendary Hidden Library, where every truth, thought, reality, and possibility existed as written catalogs. The imperial officer inched closer to the portal, ablaze in pink and blue WoRPfire. Hanging over the large doorway floated a large disembodied mouth.

Image created by T-Rock using Midjourney

“The Changer of Ways bids thee welcome,” smiled the grotesque mouthpiece, widening the gashes in its lips.

“Guardian of the Maze, the Weaver of Destinies has brought me here before you, to follow the ambitious path of the QB. I seek their sorcerous powers to bend fate to my will and reshape reality. I vow to reject error, cast out ignorance, and eradicate impurfection. I understand in the Tournament of Mania:

• QBs that have a strong cast of redzone pass-catchers , as well rushing upside, have the strongest potential

• (2024 = Hurts, Kyler, Caleb) 

• The elite rushers have the safest floors and highest ceilings

• (2024 = Lamar, Richardson, Daniels)

• Some will outperform their ADP because of their surrounding talent

• (2024 = Geno, Baker, Rodgers, Carr)

• And some will elevate their subpar environments

• (2024 = Daniels, Russell)

“Ahhh, you boast of perfection, son of the Imperium!?” chomped the gatekeeper. “But the Raven God is both the Lord of Change and Entropy. What are the heights of enlightenment compared to the inescapable chasms of darkness? To know what waits in the shadows and screams in the night. To be a Dark God is to understand the deepest depths of fear itself.”

“Please lord, let me gaze upon these hidden secrets!” said the Imperium Commander.

The mouth grinned, flashing its pointed yellow teeth and black gums. “Very well.”     

• Offenses significantly decline from a lack of explosive weapons

• 2023 = Mahomes (2024 = Allen, Herbert)

• Some QBs have excellent rushing upside, but struggle with processing

• 2023 = Fields (2024 = Levis)

• There are QBs we are still waiting on to operate at their potential

• (2024 = TLaw, Watson)

• Some teams become top passing offenses that few anticipated

• 2023 = Cowboys, Packers (2024 = Bengals)

• Few offenses are built to make the jump from good to elite

• 2023 = Lions (2024 = Falcons)

• Rookie QBs on projected weak teams are often underestimated

• (2024 = Maye, Nix)

• Low expectations for high passing volume and a career resurgence can spell value

• 2023 = Baker (2024 = Russell, Young, Darnold)

The Commander stared into the void of the portal as the Guardian’s abominable speech slowly entered his mind. A deep sorrow washed over him as distant and forgotten memories came back into thought. These recollections were slowly remade into new, foreign images, as if his psyche were being corrupted by an outside force. On instinct, he closed his eyes to shield himself from the mental bombardment, but this only quickened the perverse nightmare he was suffering. Unable to fathom the primordial horrors that had invaded his soul, the soldier cried out in terror. A tentacled tongue burst out of the commander’s mouth, wrapping itself around his face. Soon, hairy arachnid appendages and insect antennae ripped through his skin as he transformed. Beginning in his mind and shifting to his body, the metamorphosis was complete. The Imperial Officer was now another loyal spawn for the Great Conspirator to puppet, fulfilling what the deceiving god had fated long ago.

instrumentum

Image created by T-Rock using Midjourney. Perfected by ATM

This series is dedicated to my brother Malik, the Hellhound Primarch

Underdog 40,000

Part 1 - Review of 2023

The Imperium

It is the 41st Millennium in the Solum Canis galaxy. For centuries the Emperor has sat upon a boisterous throne as the ruler of the Imperium, by the will of the gods. He leads a never-ending campaign, turning the galaxy into his arena where he presides over a tournament of endless chaos.     

At the Emperor’s right hand is seated the Council of Creation. They manifest his will through the hellbent expansion of the Imperium. But now, the Council serves as regents with unlimited power for an emperor who has lost his mind to madness. They control all legions throughout the galaxy, including the Enlisted Guard, the Data Harvesters, the Scouting Conclave, and the Furnace Brotherhood. This untold myriad of forces keeps every horror that gushes through from the galactic rim at bay. It is their sacred duty to wage war against the degenerate, the apostate, and the demonic.

Five years into this latest Tournament of Mania, a new season of war is fast approaching and the Council deliberates on how they will wage their upcoming offensive. But before your league can be mobilized, the previous year’s campaign must be carefully reviewed.          

Pandemonium

Functioning as the brain for the Imperial Legion are the Data Harvesters. They are gatekeepers to secret knowledge and arm the Emperor’s forces with invaluable intel. Operating in Hives throughout the galaxy, their bodies are suspended by countless life support tubes and drains, including a canopy of neural lines directly farming raw data to their brains.

Image created by T-Rock using Midjourney

The following summary report is comprised of four major categories: 

• Hits, Misses, & Injuries by Round

• ADP Inaccuracy by Round

• Hits vs Misses by Position

• ADP Inaccuracy by Position

A “Hit” is categorized by a player’s 2023 Underdog ADP aligning with their season finish within a particular threshold:

• Over 65% of Underdog ADP (top 219 players) completely missed the mark.

• More than 13% of the top 254 players missed 6 or more games due to injury.

• The average discrepancy between a player’s Underdog ADP and their 2023 finish was 19.23 places. In other words, on average the top 219 players were drafted 19 spots early/late.

• The hit rate surpassed 50% in only 3/21 rounds.

• The poorest drafted position in 2023 was WR. They were on average drafted two rounds early.

• The poorest round came at the end of the draft, where the average 18th-round player was drafted 23.79 spots early/late. WRs in this range were drafted an average of 38.04 spots late/early.  

Those who fought in last year’s crusade were subjected to a cruel existence, where only a third of the Imperium’s forces survived the evil Hordes. Will this intelligence prove worthy of the Council’s plans for the upcoming campaign? In a universe of doom, can there be progress or understanding?

Abandon Hope

The Data Harvesters are one side of a double-edged sword for the Emperor. Steering the Imperium’s politics is the Scouting Conclave. As a royal priesthood gifted in prophecy, they discern the paths to victory and counsel the Emperor on galactic dangers. Their Tabernacles travel as bastions across the stars, spreading the Emperor’s propaganda and instilling fanaticism throughout the Legion’s ranks. In the darkness of their innermost shrines, the clerics keep vigil as they profess the Imperatoris Sacramenta - The Emperor’s Sacraments. By unrelenting faith, the Emperor’s Legions endure the gods’ testing and bear the sacred burdens.

Image created by DK using Midjourney

But many have strayed from the path and fallen into foul corruption. Their purpose has become vile, their strength lecherous, and their souls damned. To protect the Emperor’s Legions, the Conclave warns of divine judgment across the Imperium:

• Woe to those who scorn the Elite QB and WR

• Woe to those who place too much faith in unknown assets

• Woe to those who align themselves with vile offenses

• Woe to those who chase after backups or low-ceiling players

• Many QBs and RBs will have their days cut short, and the Imperium will be thrown into darkness

• Therefore, pursue the elite QB duo, do not doubt a third QB, stand firm in the elite WR trio, consecrate all-powerful offenses, and devote yourself entirely to alphas

11th Place Finish - Too many swings at unknown assets

The Cursed Sector

Far from the light of the Emperor, a distress signal is received from the desolate system Mortuus Zona - The Dead Zone. In a sector plagued by unpredictable WoRP surges and anomalies beyond comprehension, it is a haven for the apostate, the demonic, and the degenerate. Vast and deadly, Imperium forces are completely cut off from any hope of aid in the grim dark. The distress signal’s origin is a derelict Tabernacle, likely caught in the maelstrom of a WoRP surge. Hidden aboard the vessel exists the most powerful weapon in the Legion’s arsenal, developed by the Furnace Brotherhood. 

An ancient guild of master craftsmen, the Brotherhood supplies the imperial war machine with its most deadly tools. Operating in the remotest sectors of the galaxy, their work often remains a terrible secret. This includes a new age of WoRP Technology, powerful enough to harness the energy of surges and convert them into limitless powerplants for machinery and devastating weaponry against any threat. Without this technology, the nests of the Horde would continue to fester unchecked, and eventually spill into the Imperium with the force of a tidal wave. 

Image created by T-Rock using Midjourney

Utilizing WoRP Tech, we can gather:

• Outside of the RB #1, WRs rule the galaxy by a significant margin

• The Top 4 QBs overshadow TEs before trading blows for the rest of the draft 

The Call

The path to glory is wrought with blood and toil. Each misstep magnified a thousandfold in the Tournament of Mania. In the arena of chaos, whispers of doubt will echo, the aroma of death will choke, the weight of despair will crush, and the eyes of annihilation will forever follow. These enemies are no foes to be conquered in a distant world but rather the demons that wreak havoc within ourselves. Vanquish the nemesis within, quiet their mockery, ready yourself for war, and answer the call to VICTORY!

instrumentum

Image created by T-Rock using Midjourney. Perfected by ATM

This series is dedicated to my brother Malik, the Hellhound Primarch