FANTASY FOOTBALL TRADE ADVICE: WEEK 5 BUY & SELL
We are four games into the NFL season and it already feels like so much has happened. We’ve seen injuries, benchings, and role changes and it’s just getting started. Fantasy football teams are already starting to get an idea whether a championship is realistic or not. The preverbal fantasy fork in the road is rapidly approaching and it’s time to start planning for a playoff run or start setting sights onto 2025 and beyond. Regardless of what teams have in store going forward, here are the week’s buy and sell targets.
Buy
Jayden Reed
Adding pieces from the Green Bay Packer offense seems like good business at the moment. Four games in and the Packers have put up the third most total yards per game, seventh most points per game, and the seventh most passing yards per game despite Jordan Love missing two games. Atop the Packers wish list has to be Jayden Reed. He is currently the WR 4 in fantasy and has been super productive for Green Bay. Out of all wide receivers that have run at least 75 routes, Reed has the fourth highest yards per route run and the sixth highest yards after catch. Fantasy football market indicators have Reed as a wide receiver two but WoRP (wins over replacement player) listed him as a top five wide receiver and a top 10 player overall. There is still a gap between the value of Jayden Reed versus the perceived market value which is why the time to buy the Packer is NOW.
Who to trade away
Buying is not always about getting players for cheap prices. Sometimes it is about adding a player before his value skyrockets. Reed falls into that category. Trading for him will cost a running back two and a wide receiver two or three from a squad but it will be worth it. Players in the Christian Kirk or Calvin Ridley range plus James Conner or Rhamondre Stevenson seems like the current price and fantasy managers should be more than excited to make that move. Dynasty gamers can pony up a mid-late first for Reed and sleep easy at night. Don’t be like Jerry Jones and let your procrastination cause you to pay max prices.
Sell
Kyle Pitts
Fantasy managers are always looking to add and roster special talents because special talents lead to fantasy championships. But special talents can also break your heart when their talent doesn't convert to fantasy points. That has been the case for Kyle Pitts for a majority of his career. Fantasy markets continue to value Pitts as a top five or six tight end but once again finds himself outside of the top 12. After recording ZERO receptions on just three targets in Week 4, Kyle Pitts now finds himself as the fifth option on the Falcons passing hierarchy. Using WoRP, it's easy to see that Pitts has been as replaceable as players like Allen Lazard, Tre Tucker, and Alexander Mattison. Sometimes it is best to use the fantasy landscape to an advantage. The tight ends in fantasy have collectively sucked. Before any leaguemates realize that Pitts is so easy to replace, move him for a decent return.
Who to trade for
According to fantasy market indicators, Pitts can still be sold for a player like Davante Adams, Terry McLaurin, and Cooper Kupp. All players come with risk but are more likely to contribute to a winning starting lineup on a weekly basis. Tiering down is an option because fantasy managers can look pretty low on the tight end rankings and not lose more value according to WoRP. Nobody has to be like the musicians on the Titanic going down with the ship. Trade away Kyle Pitts away while the market still believes in the “unicorn.”
We are just through Week 4 but it is NOT too early to start making deals in fantasy. Slow and steady is for the NFL executives and the folks who don’t want to win their league. Doesn’t matter whether fantasy managers are looking to buy or sell, now is the time to act and show the team that you mean business. There is exactly ZERO research that backs this up but it feels true. Whenever fantasy managers believe in their team, show the team that they’re all in…the squad reciprocates the love via fantasy production. Stay trading my friends…
Week 5 Waiver Targets
The South Harmon Agency has more high-tier operatives gathering intel than ever before. Be sure to keep your channel open and collect data from the various sources as it comes in. In terms of FAAB bidding, review your league’s previous waiver behavior to navigate the wire best. The waiver wire will become more bare as the season continues, especially in best ball formats.
Waiver Targets
The South Harmon Agency has more high-tier operatives gathering intel than ever before. Be sure to keep your channel open and collect data from the various sources as it comes in. In terms of FAAB bidding, review your league’s previous waiver behavior to navigate the wire best. The waiver wire will become more bare as the season continues, especially in best ball formats.
ReDraft (most of these players will be rostered in Dynasty leagues)
Dontayvion Wicks - 18% rostership, 15-18% FAAB (Erupted in wk 4 - 5/13 for 78 yds & 2 TDs. With Watson injured, Wicks can explode any given week on this high-flying offense with Love at QB.)
Josh Downs - 28% rostership, 12-15% FAAB (Downs was a key factor in the Colts' upset win over the Steelers. Hauling in 8/9 for 82 yds & 1 TD, we believe Downs is just getting started with JT now injured.)
Chase Brown - 57% rostership, 12-15% FAAB (We were wrong to advocate dropping him, but we blame the Bengals for waiting until wk 4 to utilize the explosive RB finally.)
Tre Tucker - 19% rostership, 10-12% FAAB in Best Ball (Was under consideration last week, but now we have seen enough to recommend picking up the speedy WR. He should continue to produce as the big-play WR while Adams recovers from injury.)
Trey Sermon - 4% rostership, spend 2-3% FAAB (This is a tricky situation: ARich can’t pass, JT is hurt, & Sermon isn’t that great of an RB. Perhaps it's best to target these other waivers.)
Dynasty
Jeremy McNichols - 3% rostership, 8-10% FAAB in Best Ball only (Absolutely smashed filling in for Ekeler - 8 carries for 68 yds, 2 TDs. An explosive RB on one of the best rushing offenses is worth a pick-up.)
Dare Ogunbowale - 11% rostership, 5-8% FAAB (Akers hasn’t done much filling in for Mixon the last 2 weeks. Pick up Dare for his receiving upside.)
Justin Watson - 13% rostership, 3-5% FAAB (Watson is a downfield WR who thrives on splash plays during critical downs. Despite the injury to Rice, do not expect a major uptick for Watson.)
Mecole Hardman/Skyy Moore/JuJu Smith-Schuster - 13-35% rostership, 0-1% FAAB (All these WRs could be total cones at this point in their careers, but at the rate the Chiefs are losing cornerstones of their offense, we fully expect Travis Kelce & Carson Steele to be the TE1 & RB1 from here on out.)
Expendable
Cut loose the following players before they compromise their rosters:
ReDraft
Kirk Cousins - 41% rostership (The most underrated QB in the league does not look like a good fit for this Atlanta team. Keep him if you have no other choice.)
Tyjae Spears - 65% rostership (Pollard has taken over the backfield for a Titans’ offense with zero upside.)
Ezekiel Elliott - 64% rostership (From 51% snap share in wk 1 to 18% in wk 4, Elliott and the Cowboys' run game looks completely cooked.)
The Dossier
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Week 4 RANKINGS: BREAKOUT CANDIDATES
Here we go, welcome to Week 4 of the NFL season. The fantasy world witnessed some big time fantasy weeks by players NO ONE was expecting. Will Week 4 have the same magic? The over/under projections suggest that the prime time slate will be very exciting. Buffalo versus Baltimore and Seattle versus Detroit are projected to shoot out. There are a handful of divisional matchups which always have the potential to display some fireworks. Let’s take a peek into my rankings for this week. They are live right now so go click on weekly rankings under the rankings tab on the South Harmon website to see ALL OF MY WEEK 4 RANKS.
Breakout Candidates
The 2023 Rookie of the Year, CJ Stroud hasn’t had a big fantasy day so far this season. That changes in Week 4 when the Texans take on the Jacksonville Jaguars and their swiss cheese secondary. Stroud destroyed the cats last year and that is why he is the quarterback six in my Week 4 rankings. Brandon Aiyuk hasn’t quite shaken off the rust caused by holding out but he is poised for a BIG Week 4 versus the Patriots. He saw ten targets last week but only hauled in five. Aiyuk is too talented to dud again with that kind of volume. Expect BA to finish as a top 15 wide receiver this week. Najee Harris hasn’t had a performance that warrants a top 20 RB ranking but he’s getting the volume and his matchup is juicy in Week 4 so his breakout performance in 2024 may happen sooner rather than later.
DUDS
I can admit when I’m wrong. I’m only human, I don’t always make the right call. Coming into the season I had some high hopes for Trevor Lawrence. After three straight dud performances this year, T-Law plummeted down my Week 4 rankings. Get it together Sunshine! Sometimes it is wild how quickly things will tilt in fantasy football. Quentin Johnston isn’t useless two weeks in a row and all of a sudden he’s not the bust that he’s been. I’m still not convinced so he falls outside of my top 50 at wide receiver. Heading into the season Zamir White was slated to be a lock to be an RB 2 in fantasy. Three straight weeks he has been a total bust. Alexander Mattison is getting the passing work AND the goal line touches. Twenty-two rushes for 89 yards ain’t gonna cut it. Expect another sub top 35 performance.
Week 4 SLEEPERS
Can you really call a player that has put together multiple seasons of high end production a sleeper? I guess when he’s still massively under-rostered I can. Zach Ertz has seen four or more targets every game this season. As Jayden Daniels continues to improve, Ertz will be right there with him and that is why he is a top ten tight end this week. Get him on your roster ASAP. Emanuel Wilson has been hyper efficient this season. He continues to show that he doesn’t need volume to produce but the funny thing is that when players continue to produce they see more volume. Not generally rostered, Wilson can be picked up and expected to be a top 35 RB.
Check out the entire Week 4 positional ranks on South Harmon dot com to help make even the toughest of lineup decisions.
fantasy football trade advice: week 4 buy & sell
Week 3 is in the books and the fantasy football world is on fire. Jayden Daniels, Malik Nabers, Marvin Harrison are putting up massive fantasy weeks as rookies. Even Caleb Williams put up decent fantasy numbers. Waiver wire priorities like Jauan Jennings and Andy Dalton went absolutely nuclear. Just as we predicted, fantasy football is anything but predictable. We are all in the fantasy trenches and it’s time to start adding bullets to win these battles. Here are the weekly BUY and SELL for the 3-0 squads, the 0-3 squads and everything else in between.
Buy
Najee Harris
Risk is defined as a situation involving exposure to danger. Buying Najee Harris is a risk but as the wiseman says…”you gotta risk it, to get the biscuit.” The Steelers running back is unequivocally worth the risk and investment. The elephant in the room is the supposed arm injury but without any information it doesn’t sound serious. Three games in, Harris is dominating running back opportunities and there are positive indicators in his underlying metrics. His 1.3 rushes of 15+ MPH is up from last year and his 4.3 xYPC is a career best. Pittsburgh's offensive line hasn’t been as bad as perceived either. They have a top 12 run blocking unit according to PFF. The Steelers play the Colts, the Cowboys, and the Raiders over their next three games. Now is the right time to get Harris and don’t forget to add Najee insurance aka Cordarelle Patterson on waivers.
Who to trade away
The price tag to acquire Najee Harris is cheap which presents a very nice opportunity to buy into the tailback. His value has plummeted to a point where a combination of bench pieces will get a deal done. Putting together a package of players like Jerry Jeudy, Javonte Williams, Tyjae Spears or selling high on a Quentin Johnston will get teams a running back capable of being a consistent RB 2 rest of season. For the fantasy football teams that are desperate for wins in the next few weeks, Harris can be a savior given his soft matchups coming up. Buying low is a pillar of success in fantasy football for a reason.
Sell
Patrick Mahomes
It must be said, Patrick Mahomes is the most valuable player in football. He is the clear cut 1.01 if the league went nutty and held its own fantasy draft. BUT in the fantasy football universe, Mahomes has become pretty dang replaceable. It’s early but his WoRP is in the same tier as quarterbacks like Brock Burdy, Sam Darnold, and Derek Carr. Dating back to the Chiefs 2023 bye week which is ten games, Mahomes has averaged 18.5 fantasy points per game. The Kansas City offense has become very conservative. They pass the ball just 53-percent of the time and the passing attack ranks in the middle of the league. This formula flat out stinks for fantasy football but man is it good for winning NFL football games. The Chiefs are 7-4 since that Week 2023 bye and won another Super Bowl. Mahomes is in the winning championship business not the fantasy football business.
Who to trade for
Trading quarterbacks can vary so much depending on format. Obviously in 2 QB leagues, they are gold and typically come in the form of blockbusters. Ask for moon and stars in the sky Boyz II Men style when selling Mahomes in multi QB. Dealing signal callers in single quarterback leagues can be very tricky. Taking the tiering down approach made famous but the great and powerful Mike McNutted is the way to go here. Trading Mahomes for Aaron Rodgers, Sam Darnold, or Baker Mayfield as well as a running back or wide receiver that will make the starting lineup is a trade that your league will hate on but will return big time value this season. Scared money don’t make money homey.
See you next week!
We are just through Week 3 but it is NOT too early to start making deals in fantasy. Slow and steady is for the NFL executives and the folks who don’t want to win their league. Doesn’t matter whether fantasy managers are looking to buy or sell, now is the time to act and show the team that you mean business. There is exactly ZERO research that backs this up but it feels true. Whenever fantasy managers believe in their team, show the team that they’re all in…the squad reciprocates the love via fantasy production. Stay trading my friends…
WK 3 - Depressed States
High hopes and significant capital were invested in the following teams for the 2024 fantasy season. Like the job prospects in a shit economy, you feel misled and disappointed, the same way most parents feel about their kids. Some of these franchises may turn it around, allowing their star players to flourish. But for the most part, these teams’ weaknesses will hold their players back from living up to their potential, similar to me with my Master’s degree. Caught in the awful dilemma of holding players that may never ascend or trading players before their resurgence, these teams epitomize the fantasy Catch-22.
Franchises That Can Make or Break 2024
Okay. All right, now, let's see. Where were we? Oh, yes. In the Pit of Despair.
Grandpa - The Princess Bride
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Burned
“Hey! It’s my birthday, do you want to come over to my place and watch The Iron Claw?” you say to your co-worker, who is way out of your league. She smiles at you saying, “Oh my God, that would be great!” before quickly walking away. In preparation for your pity date, you wrestle yourself into your favorite pop-culture T-shirt from Khol’s, which now feels kid-sized. The scent of black cherry merlot wafts through your studio apartment, doing its best to drown out the aroma of cat litter and kill socks. You quickly look down at your vibrating phone, hoping it's her. It’s your mom asking you for the HBO MAX password so she can watch Furiosa. An hour and a half have passed before it finally sinks in that she isn’t coming. A knock at the door catapults you from your hookah-burned loveseat. It's the Uber Eats driver with your $28 Taco Bell order, now for one. You eat the whole thing. All in all, not such a bad birthday. That is until you open up your Sleeper app. 0-3, 0-3, 1-2 with the lowest points scored, 0-3. Most embarrassing of course being your winless work-league team, where half of the managers have never played before, and all of them know you are big into fantasy football. What once began as “My Year!” has quickly devolved into “my last year...”
SITREP - Depressed States
High hopes and significant capital were invested in the following teams for the 2024 fantasy season. Like the job prospects in a shit economy, you feel misled and disappointed, the same way most parents feel about their kids. Some of these franchises may turn it around, allowing their star players to flourish. But for the most part, these teams’ weaknesses will hold their players back from living up to their potential, similar to me with my Master’s degree. Caught in the awful dilemma of holding players that may never ascend or trading players before their resurgence, these teams epitomize the fantasy Catch-22.
Patriots - Some people are interested in knowing what life was like a hundred years ago and spend their weekends at museums. If you love boring, dusty football, look no further than the New England Patriots, who put the “Old” in Old School. Their game plan revolves around sound defense, running the ball with a bellcow RB, and keeping the ball safe on passing downs. They often don’t pass the ball further than 10 yards downfield given subpar line play. Rhamondre Stevenson will have decent games throughout the season, but negative game scripts and zero threat of explosive plays through the air will hamper the Rhino.
Neutral Pass Rate - 0.42 (28th in NFL), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
OLine Rating - PassBlk = 54 (28th), RunBlk = 56.2 (27th), (Courtesy PFF)
QB Rating - Jacoby Brissett = 62.2 (24th), (Courtesy PFF)
Run Rating - 75.8 (14th), (Courtesy PFF)
RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 21.7 pts (12th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Receiving Rating - 60.6 (26th), (Courtesy PFF)
WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 15.2 pts (32nd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 11.7 pts (2nd-tied), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Defense - Overall = 67.1 (13th), RunD = 58.5 (19th), PassRsh = 71.3 (7th), Cov = 65 (19th), (Courtesy PFF)
Upcoming Schedule - At SF, home vs MIA, home vs HOU, at JAX, home vs NYJ, at TEN, at CHI, home vs LAR, at MIA
Bears - Caleb Willams has every tool to become a successful QB. Unfortunately, he plays for the Bears, who once again have proven why no offensive player can succeed in Chicago. The narrative that the offensive line has been revamped was a bald-faced lie. This gives the Bears no chance of having positive momentum through the air or on the ground. If this wasn’t enough, the Bears have the worst OC in the entire league. Hold onto Caleb and Rome Odunze, looking forward to next year.
Neutral Pass Rate - 0.54 (8th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
OLine Rating - PassBlk = 70.5 (11th), RunBlk = 59.9 (22nd), (Courtesy PFF)
QB Rating - Caleb Williams = 48.6 (40th), (Courtesy PFF)
Run Rating - 59.9 (30th), (Courtesy PFF)
RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 17.9 pts (23rd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Receiving Rating - 60.3 (27th), (Courtesy PFF)
WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 34.6 pts (4th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 11 pts (6th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Defense - Overall = 72.1 (7th), RunD = 61.7 (13th), PassRsh = 70.9 (8th), Cov = 74 (6th), (Courtesy PFF)
Upcoming Schedule - Home vs LAR, home vs CAR, home vs JAX, at WAS, at ARI, home vs NE, home vs GB, home vs MIN, at DET
Raiders - A Jekyll and Hyde team, the Raiders operate purely on emotion, punching well above their weight class as underdogs, but also capable of collapse against lesser teams. Gardner Minshew exhausted all of his quality play last year in Indianapolis and has regressed to backup status in Las Vegas. With coach Pierce already considering Aidan O'Connell at QB, Bowers and Adams owners are in for a carousel ride from hell in 2024. Zamir White being unusable is the biggest nonsurprise of the season. The Silver and Black will leave fantasy managers black and blue by the end of the season.
Neutral Pass Rate - 0.54 (7th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
OLine Rating - PassBlk = 71.5 (9th), RunBlk = 47 (31st), (Courtesy PFF)
QB Rating - Gardner Minshew = 70.8 (12th), (Courtesy PFF)
Run Rating - 40.2 (32nd), (Courtesy PFF)
RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 14.9 pts (32nd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Receiving Rating - 71.4 (12th), (Courtesy PFF)
WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 27.9 pts (12th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 11.6 pts (5th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Defense - Overall = 52.3 (30th), RunD = 71.9 (5th), PassRsh = 60.2 (24th), Cov = 34.5 (32nd), (Courtesy PFF)
Upcoming Schedule - Home vs CLE, at DEN, home vs PIT, at LAR, home vs KC, at CIN, at MIA, home vs DEN, at KC
Chargers - The Chargers deserve to be in a higher tier. Jim Harbaugh is a fantastic coach who understands successful team building. He has raised both J.K. Dobbins and Quentin Johnston from the dead. The defense looks the best it has in years. But the Chargers, and some other teams in this tier, are far better in real life than in fantasy. With Justin Herbert’s health in constant flux for the rest of the year, the only reliable option in this offense is JK All Day. Herbert, Ladd McConkey, and Dobbins will be a sneaky great trio in 2025.
Neutral Pass Rate - 0.4 (29th-tied), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
OLine Rating - PassBlk = 58.1 (25th), RunBlk = 65.9 (13th), (Courtesy PFF)
QB Rating - Justin Herbert = 53.2 (37th), (Courtesy PFF)
Run Rating - 62.5 (26th), (Courtesy PFF)
RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 16.9 pts (28th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Receiving Rating - 63.9 pts (22nd), (Courtesy PFF)
WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 18.8 pts (29th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 6.3 pts (24th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Defense - Overall = 75.7 (5th), RunD = 63.6 (10th), PassRsh = 63.1 (21st), Cov = 85.7 (2nd), (Courtesy PFF)
Upcoming Schedule - Home vs KC, at DEN, at ARI, home vs NO, at CLE, home vs TEN, home vs CIN, home vs BAL, at ATL
Steelers - Like the team before them, the Steelers are fun to watch in RL but nerve-racking for fantasy. Justin Fields may be the ideal QB for this Authur Smith offense, but he limits the upside of George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth. The Agency would much rather have Russell Wilson at QB for this reason, but that ship may have sailed for the team-voted captain if Fields keeps winning. Their elite defense will give their offense plenty of opportunities. But with the pass-catchers being a boom-bust option and Najee & Warren playing well below their capabilities, Pittsburgh will frustrate managers in 2024.
Neutral Pass Rate - 0.4 (29th-tied), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
OLine Rating - PassBlk = 68.2 (15th), RunBlk = 70 (11th), (Courtesy PFF)
QB Rating - Justin Fields = 81 (5th), (Courtesy PFF)
Run Rating - 58.9 (31st), (Courtesy PFF)
RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 21.9 pts (11th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Receiving Rating - 69.7 (16th), (Courtesy PFF)
WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 15.5 pts (31st), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 7.8 pts (15th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Defense - Overall = 80.3 (2nd), RunD = 72.1 (4th), PassRsh = 88 (1st), Cov = 72.4 (9th), (Courtesy PFF)
Upcoming Schedule - At IND, home vs DAL, at LV, home vs NYJ, home vs NYG, at WAS, home vs BAL, at CLE, at CIN
Colts - The Agency had high hopes for this Steichen-led offense with talented playmakers, an elite offensive line, and a duel-threat mutant at QB. Unfortunately, the ultimate fantasy QB looks like a Frankenstein monstrosity who escaped the lab before he could learn passing fundamentals. No overpriced beer is safe with how often Richardson’s passes sail over the receivers and into the stands. His inaccuracy will not be fixed during the season; these issues can only be fixed during the offseason. No receiver is startable with this offseason and Jonathan Taylor is a risky play with how bad the defense has frequently looked.
Neutral Pass Rate - 0.48 (17th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
OLine Rating - PassBlk = 85.8 (1st), RunBlk = 82.3 (1st), (Courtesy PFF)
QB Rating - Anthony Richardson = 48.3 (41st), (Courtesy PFF)
Run Rating - 79.4 (8th), (Courtesy PFF)
RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 16.2 pts (30th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Receiving Rating - 57 (31st), (Courtesy PFF)
WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 21.3 pts (24th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 4.5 pts (31st-tied), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Defense - Overall = 65.5 (16th), RunD = 64.7 (9th), PassRsh = 58.3 (26th), Cov = 66.5 (16th), (Courtesy PFF)
Upcoming Schedule - Home vs PIT, at JAX, at TEN, home vs MIA, at HOU, at MIN, home vs BUF, at NYJ, home vs DET
Jets - With Breece Hall being the only viable fantasy option, the Jets are the definition of a depressed franchise. Hopes of Aaron Rodgers making the most of the opportunities afforded to him by his loaded defense appear misplaced. Allen Lazard, not Garret Wilson, appears to have the best connection with the QB. The Agency fully anticipates the Jets to improve on offense as the season progresses, but with the team being content to keep their signal-caller upright, we expect the offense to continue to run through Hall and Allen at RB and the breakout season for Wilson to remain elusive.
Neutral Pass Rate - 0.5 (11th-tied), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
OLine Rating - PassBlk = 66.1 (18th), RunBlk = 66.7 (12th), (Courtesy PFF)
QB Rating - Aaron Rodgers = 82.8 (3rd), (Courtesy PFF)
Run Rating - 81.7 (5th), (Courtesy PFF)
RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 22.1 pts (10th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Receiving Rating - 70.1 (14th), (Courtesy PFF)
WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 25.4 pts (16th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 7.4 pts (16th-tied), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Defense - Overall = 64.7 (19th), RunD = 45.6 (31st), PassRsh = 66.6 (16th), Cov = 79.5 (3rd), (Courtesy PFF)
Upcoming Schedule - Home vs DEN, at MIN, home vs BUF, at PIT, at NE, home vs HOU, at ARI, home vs IND, home vs SEA
Dolphins - Miami finds themselves in football limbo with their QB Tua Tagovailoa lost in the maze once again. Having De’Von Achane average 20 touches per game has been great, but this is a short-term fantasy fling that isn’t built to last and could end in heartbreak at any moment. The best outcome for the team is Tua emerging from the labyrinth to play the rest of the season. For this reason, Tyreek Hill is a hold. But Tua remaining unscathed for the year behind an awful pass-blocking line isn’t realistic. The Dolphins should trade for Bryce Young, who could excel in this McDaniel offense.
Neutral Pass Rate - 0.49 (13th-tied), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
OLine Rating - PassBlk = 62.6 (22nd), RunBlk = 76.5 (3rd), (Courtesy PFF)
QB Rating - Tua Tagovailoa = 59.9 (27th), (Courtesy PFF)
Run Rating - 70.2 (20th), (Courtesy PFF)
RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 23.5 pts (3rd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Receiving Rating - 60.7 (25th), (Courtesy PFF)
WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 25.4 pts (15th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 11.7 pts (2nd-tied), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Defense - Overall = 61.2 (24th), RunD = 69.6 (6th), PassRsh = 67.3 (15th), Cov = 48.5 (29th), (Courtesy PFF)
Upcoming Schedule - Home vs TEN, at NE, at IND, home vs ARI, at BUF, at LAR, home vs LV, home vs NE, at GB
Bengals - Our prediction for the Bengals to become the next high-flying offense was WAY OFF. Their run game is nonexistent, which is a moot point considering their sieve of a defense. Cincinnati has all the pass-catching power to keep them in a lot of games, but with their one-dimensional build, this team is going to be nowhere near what we had hoped for in 2024.
Neutral Pass Rate - 0.59 (3rd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
OLine Rating - PassBlk = 68 (16th), RunBlk = 57.5 (25th), (Courtesy PFF)
QB Rating - Joe Burrow = 77.2 (8th), (Courtesy PFF)
Run Rating - 71.4 (19th), (Courtesy PFF)
RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 18 pts (21st-tied), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Receiving Rating - 62.9 (23rd), (Courtesy PFF)
WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 30.7 pts (10th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 13.7 pts (1st), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Defense - Overall = 63.8 (21st), RunD = 62.6 (11th), PassRsh = 57.3 (28th), Cov = 66.5 (16th), (Courtesy PFF)
Upcoming Schedule - At CAR, home vs BAL, at NYG, at CLE, home vs PHI, home vs LV, at BAL, at LAC, home vs PIT
Falcons - Murdered out in their all-black unis, few teams are more intimidating than Atlanta lined up on offense. But despite their embarrassment of riches, the Falcons have played far below fantasy expectations. Every pass from Kirk Cousins looks like a hate-throw; as if he has already accepted that he will be benched by midseason for Michael Penix. Drake London was drafted as a top 12-15 WR, but he is playing more like a 25-30-ranked receiver. The greatest “what-if?” player of his generation remains Kyle Pitts. Bijan Robinson is playing more like the Suffering Servant with only 1 TD in three games than the RB Messiah we had all hoped for. Darnell Mooney is a sneaky cheap buy with his solid connection to Cousins. The Falcons could elevate themselves into the next tier, but as of now, they are one of fantasy’s most depressing teams.
Neutral Pass Rate - 0.44 (24th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
OLine Rating - PassBlk = 56.8 (26th), RunBlk = 71.5 (8th), (Courtesy PFF)
QB Rating - Kirk Cousins = 61.4 (25th), (Courtesy PFF)
Run Rating - 75.8 (14th), (Courtesy PFF)
RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 18.6 pts (17th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Receiving Rating - 71.9 (9th), (Courtesy PFF)
WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 24.7 pts (17th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 7 pts (19th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Defense - Overall = 64.4 (20th), RunD = 62 (12th), PassRsh = 48.8 (32nd), Cov = 72.8 (8th), (Courtesy PFF)
Upcoming Schedule - Home vs NO, home vs TB, at CAR, home vs SEA, at TB, home vs DAL, at NO, at DEN, home vs LAC
Works Cited
PFF
NFL Week 3 Recap - Fantasy Usage Model by Hayden Winks
https://underdognetwork.com/football/analysis/nfl-week-3-recap-fantasy-usage-model-2024
The Dossier
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Week 4 Waiver Targets
The South Harmon Agency has more high-tier operatives gathering intel than ever before. Be sure to keep your channel open and collect data from the various sources as it comes in. In terms of FAAB bidding, review your league’s previous waiver behavior to navigate the wire best. The waiver wire will become more bare as the season continues, especially in best ball formats.
Waiver Targets
The South Harmon Agency has more high-tier operatives gathering intel than ever before. Be sure to keep your channel open and collect data from the various sources as it comes in. In terms of FAAB bidding, review your league’s previous waiver behavior to navigate the wire best. The waiver wire will become more bare as the season continues, especially in best ball formats.
ReDraft (most of these players will be rostered in Dynasty leagues)
Jauan Jennings - 44% rostership, spend 15-18% FAAB (Deebo & Kittle being ruled out late last week made Jauan a must-add. Jennings is unlikely to replicate his colossal Wk 3 performance, but he is an easy FLEX play any time SF is down a starter (which is often))
Michael Wilson - 15% rostership, 12-15% FAAB (McBride is likely out with a concussion in Wk 4, elevating Michael Wilson to WR3 territory against a putrid WAS def)
Xavier Legette - 35% rostership, 8-10% FAAB in Best Ball (With Andy Dalton, the Panthers are no longer a clown show on offense, and with Thielen likely missing significant time, Legette could see more opportunity)
Allen Lazard - 39% rostership, 5-8% FAAB (Rodgers is taking the easy looks to the Lizard King while defenses scheme against Garrett Wilson)
Tyler Conklin - 14% rostership, 5-8% FAAB (Likely dropped after two abysmal weeks, Conklin is a serviceable option at a wasteland position)
Brenton Strange - 35% rostership, 3-5% FAAB (With Engram out for an undefined period, Strange becomes the #2-3 option on an offense devoid of playmakers)
Antonio Gibson - 27% rostership, 0-5% FAAB (With bye weeks on the horizon and injuries soon to follow, you can do worse than Gibson. He’s carved out a key pass-catching role on an offense that doesn’t pass the ball very far down the field)
Jordan Akins - 3% rostership, 0% FAAB (Has 12 targets and 8 catches through 3 games, which is solid enough in 2024. Enjoy another few weeks of production before Njoku returns to the fold)
Dynasty
Calvin Austin - 31% rostership, 5-8% FAAB in Best Ball only (He played in only 54% of the snaps in Wk 3, but the Steelers have no one else at WR outside of Pickens)
Elijah Higgins - 9% rostership, 5% FAAB (Higgins is the next man up at TE with McBride likely to miss their juicy matchup against WAS in Wk. 4. Higgins has athletic upside, but temper expectations with MHJ, Wilson, & Dortch all likely ahead of him)
Johnny Wilson- 36% rostership, 0-5% FAAB (The Eagles could wait until after their Wk 5 bye to bring back both AJ Brown & DeVonta Smith. This gives the 6’6” 228 lb mutant WR Johnny Wilson a chance, but Philly will likely run the ball down TB’s throat)
Brock Wright - 3% rostership, 0-3% FAAB (The Lions appear to operate best running the ball, but if LaPorta misses time, Brock could see decent touches)
Expendable
Cut loose the following players before they compromise their rosters:
ReDraft
Justin Herbert - 61% rostership (Outside of the top 24, he will be severely limited by injuries, the run-first offense, and a lack of explosive pass-catchers. Trade him for Andy Dalton)
Zamir White - 82% rostership (He’s the worst starting RB in the league. Drop him as a waiver wire booby trap)
Tyler Allgeier - 36% rostership (Even if Bijan gets hurt, what is the upside?)
Jaleel McLaughlin - 34% rostership (DEN has the worst run game in the NFL)
Jaylen Warren - 75% rostership (Likely not fully recovered from his knee injury, he can be dropped if he can’t be traded)
Gus Edwards - 60% rostership (Gus has looked like an absolute cone in 2024, forcing J.K. into a bell-cow role)
Khalil Herbert - 13% rostership (The Bears couldn’t run the ball if their lives depended on it)
Chase Brown - 56% rostership (The Bengals have zero faith in Chase Brown)
Trey Benson - 49% rostership (3% of the touches in Wk. 3, the Cardinals are in no hurry to feature the explosive RB)
Blake Corum - 44% rostership (McVay lied to us all Summer about how much he loves Corum. I should have traded him for Brian Robinson plus a 3rd when I had the chance)
NE WRs - (These receivers are closer to Charlies than Betas)
IND WRs - (Hold onto Pittman for one more week, but everyone else is droppable. Waterboarding, electroshock, and watching ARich pass the ball have all been deemed as permissible enhanced interrogation techniques for our Agency)
The Dossier
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Top DEVY RANKINGS UPDATE
Every Friday, I will be introducing a different topic that is centralized around College Football, the NFL Draft, High School Recruiting, or something of that nature. Whether it is keeping you updated on my Devy Rankings movers, an NFL Draft Big Board, live event recaps from events at all three levels or just an old-fashioned Weekend Preview of the games, you’ll find it all, right here at South Harmon.
Get the FULL Devy Rankings right now, Patreon.com/southharmon
Devy Rankings QB Movers
QB - Avery Johnson, Kansas State (+10)
QB - Dylan Raiola, Nebraska (+7)
QB - Drew Allar, Penn State (+5)
QB - LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina (+4)
QB - DJ Lagway, Florida (+2)
QB - Cam Ward, Miami (+2)
QB - Garrett Nussmeir, LSU (+2)
QB - Riley Leonard, Notre Dame (-3)
QB - Dante Moore, Oregon (-4)
QB - Jackson Arnold, Oklahoma (-7)
QB - Conner Weigman, Texas A&M (-11)
Devy Rankings RB Movers
RB - Taylor Tatum, Oklahoma (+17)
RB - Jaydon Blue, Texas (+5)
RB - Caden Durham, LSU (+5)
RB - Ashton Jeanty, Boise State (+4)
RB - Dylan Sampson, Tennessee (NEW)
RB - Donovan Edwards, Michigan (-3)
RB - Trevor Etienne, Georgia (-3)
RB - Damien Martinez, Miami (-3)
RB - Tahj Brooks, Texas Tech (-4)
RB - Gavin Sawchuk, Oklahoma (-5)
RB - CJ Baxter, Texas (-10)
Devy Rankings WR Movers
WR - Isaiah Bond, Texas (+7)
WR - Ryan Wingo, Texas (+6)
WR - Tre Harris, Ole Miss (+6)
WR - Travis Hunter, Colorado (+6)
WR - Bryant Wesco, Clemson (+5)
WR - Ryan Williams, Alabama (+4)
WR - Micah Hudson, Texas Tech (-3)
WR - Tory Horton, Colorado State (-4)
WR - Evan Stewart, Oregon (-4)
WR - Kevin Concepcion, NC State (-5)
WR - Eugene Wilson, Florida (-5)
Devy Rankings TE Movers
TE - Lawson Luckie, Georgia (+17)
TE - Harrold Fannin, Bowling Green (+17)
TE - Gunner Helm, Texas (+13)
TE - Mitchell Evans, Notre Dame (+4)
TE - Colston Loveland, Michigan (+2)
TE - Oronde Gadsden, Syracuse (+1)
TE - Brant Kuithe, Utah (-3)
TE - Luke Hasz, Arkansas (-5)
TE - Jaleel Skinner, Louisville (-8)
TE - Oscar Delp, Georgia (-8)
TE - Amari Niblack, Texas (-8)
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WEEk 3 rankings: what player bounces back?
It’s Week 3 and the fantasy world is still recovering after a crazy Week 2. Three matchups project to be shootouts. Detroit vs Arizona, Baltimore vs Dallas, and PHI vs New Orleans are all pushing a 50 point over/under. There are also a handful of matchups that may be get right games for fantasy players. Let’s take a peek into my rankings for this week. They are live right now so go click on weekly rankings under the rankings tab on the South Harmon website to see ALL OF MY WEEK 3 RANKS.
Bounceback Candidates
Josh Allen laid an egg last week on TNF only scoring just 11.8 fantasy points. This week the Bills take on the Jaguars on extra rest. Jacksonville gives up the third most passing yards per game and I expect Allen to smash. He is my number one quarterback this week. Two weeks into the season and Ja’Marr Chase has yet to finish as a WR 1 in fantasy. That big game happens this week when the Bengals play the Commanders on Monday Night Football. Washington gives up the second most YAC over expected and the second least sack rate. Chase may or may not be the top wideout this week. Fool me once, shame on..shame on you. Fool me-you can’t get fooled again. I’m going back to the Travis Kelce well. This week on Sunday Night Football, Kansas City gets Kelce going when they take on the Falcons. He is a top three tight end in my Week 3 ranks.
Cautiously Optimistic
Heading into the season, we all thought that Zeus White was going to be a productive running back for the Raiders. So far that hasn’t been the case but that could change in Week 3. Las Vegas plays the terrible Panthers this week. Carolina gives up the second most rushing yards per game and 2.23 rushing yards before contact per carry which is the second highest in the league. Fire up White as a top 24 running back. Last Thursday was not kind for Tyreek Hill especially after Tua left the game. Tagovailoa is on IR and Skylar Thompson will be the starting QB. It’s not exciting to play Hill without his regular quarterback but given his home run ability, it’s hard to keep him out of the top 10.
Week 3 SLEEPERS
Sometimes fantasy football teams need an injection of good vibes to get the squad going. Gardner Minshew brings all the good vibes and this week he takes on the Panthers. Carolina smells something awful (the exact opposite of good vibes) and their defense has given up the second most passing touchdowns so far this year. Any team that is in need of a quarterback, don’t look any further than the Maverick. Carson Steele may not be a traditional sleeper because the whole fantasy world is hip to the Gator King due to being the Week 3 waiver darling. Heading into Week 3, Steele is my highest ranked Chiefs’ running back. He’s big, athletic and has the most similar running style to Isiah Pacheco. Look for him to be a borderline RB 2 in Week 3.
Check out the entire Week 3 positional ranks on South Harmon dot com to help making even the toughest of lineup decisions.
Fantasy Football trade advice: week 3 buy & sell
The fantasy season is just two weeks in but it already feels like a lifetime. Injuries and benchings have already begun in the NFL and there causing tidal waves across the fantasy-verse. Deebo Samuel, Cooper Kupp, AJ Brown, and Puka Nacua are all facing multiple week absences. Amari Cooper, Diontae Johnson, Christian Kirk, and Brandon Aiyuk have all gotten off to slow starts. Fantasy markets across the world are buzzing around receivers. This week let’s dive into one wide receiver to buy in our fantasy leagues. Not everyone is hurt or dragging ass in fantasy, there are players producing so I will also talk about a wide receiver that should be moved while his stock is high.
Buy
Zay Flowers
The answer to the Isaiah Likely or Mark Andrews question was actually neither. It was and will continue to be Zay Flowers as the number one pass catcher for Lamar Jackson. Through the first two weeks of the season, Flowers has seen 21 targets and he’s caught 13 of them. Both statistics currently lead the Baltimore Ravens’ offense. His 26.7-percent Target Share ranks 14th in the NFL among all pass catchers not just wide receivers. I understand that it has only been two weeks but Flowers is already seeing a larger target share, he’s getting more separation, and is on pace to have more yards after catch then he did in his rookie campaign. His value is high and making a deal will not come with a discount but Flowers is ready to truly break out in 2024 so get in while it’s still possible.
Who to trade away
Getting your fantasy team into the Zay Flowers business will not be cheap but there is a clear path to acquiring the second year receiver. Combining a wide out that has some production so far in 2024 plus a running back is the right way to go about it. So far this season Jerry Jeudy has been the most productive wideout in Cleveland but probably isn’t a main piece in any fantasy squads. So pairing him up with a running back like Javonte Williams, D’Andre Swift, or a Bengals back will get you in range according to most fantasy market indicators. Get Flowers on the squad and every Sunday will be Zay Day.
Sell
Rashid Shaheed
The biggest surprise of the young NFL season has to be the New Orleans Saints. This team has stream rolled the Panthers and the Cowboys and their offense has been humming. Rashid Shaheed has been the receiving leader for the Saints this year and that is causing his value to be at an all time high. He is eighth in the NFL in receiving yards and has averaged 18.6 fantasy points per contest which makes him WR 10 on the 2024 season. Shaheed has the speed to be hyper efficient but this type of efficiency is damn near impossible to maintain over the course of a season. He has 169 yards and two receiving touchdowns on just nine total targets. That’s a whopping 24.1 yards per reception on a 77.8-percent catch rate. In 2023, his most productive season as a pro, Shaheed finished with 15.6 yards per reception with a 61.3-percent catch rate. The speedster may have his best year as a professional but his value is peaking and that’s where fantasy managers can secure value this time of the season.
Who to trade for
It’s clear as crystal what fantasy gamers who roster Shaheed should do. Given what fantasy market indicators are showing, now is the perfect time to move the wide receiver for a running back. Jordan Mason (who will be the lead back for the Niners until Halloween), Najee Harris, Tony Pollard, Derrick Henry, and Brian Robinson could all be targets when selling a top 10 scorer like Shaheed. Even if it takes a smaller second piece, get the running back that will anchor the lineup for a majority of the season for a wide receiver that leads the fantasy world in bench scoring. Because no one has started Shaheed these first two weeks.
It may only be Week 3 but it is NOT too early to start making deals in fantasy. Slow and steady is for the NFL executives and the folks who don’t want to win their league. Doesn’t matter whether fantasy managers are looking to buy or sell, now is the time to act and show the team that you mean business. There is exactly ZERO research that backs this up but it feels true. Whenever fantasy managers believe in their team, show the team that they’re all in…the squad reciprocates the love via fantasy production. Stay trading my friends…
WK 2 - Failed States
Leagues across the globe are gripped with mayhem. Owners have input launch codes to nuke their rosters. Managers everywhere are doing their best Will Levis impersonation at their local Walmarts. The Field Surveillance Department can barely keep up with the flood of reports:
The Worst Franchises In 2024
You know what kind of plan never fails? No plan. No plan at all. You know why? Because life cannot be planned.
Ki-taek - Parasite
Briefing
Leagues across the globe are gripped with mayhem. Owners have input launch codes to nuke their rosters. Managers everywhere are doing their best Will Levis impersonation at their local Walmarts. The Field Surveillance Department can barely keep up with the flood of reports:
“CMC usurped, Jordan Mason, rising to legitimate power as RB1”
“Believed deceased, Sam Darnold and J.K. Dobbins leading separate revolutions in the North and West”
“The Miami Special Forces on the verge of disbanding after losing leader”
“The Shock Troop Saints have launched a surprise offensive from the South”
And we just received word, “Bryce Young, OUT. Andy Dalton, IN.”
Most concerning is the level of unrest amongst our Field Agents. Like throwing water onto a grease fire, some of their panic has resulted in ill-advised trades. Remember, Agency Protocol dictates:
Adhering to the Trade Schedule
Weeks 1-2 - Be willing to trade a 3rd
Weeks 3-4 - Be willing to trade 2x 3rds
Weeks 5-8 - Be willing to trade a 2nd
Weeks 9-12 - Be willing to trade 2x 2nds (or 1x early 2nd)
Weeks 13-16 - Be willing to trade a 1st
Trading for a player worth a 2nd or more early in the season is a recipe for disaster. With limited resources, field agents cannot afford to take unnecessary risks due to the prevalence of injuries. The Agency broke the Preseason protocol of trading strictly for picks and instead traded for a player (De’Von Achane for Michael Pittman). This breach in security is luckily more embarrassing than damaging, but the Trade Series Field Manuals released earlier this year should have been consulted nonetheless. The best Operators will stay patient and make moves at the last possible moment
Anticipate Bounce Backs
Amon-Ra St. Brown - 11/19 for 119 yds (Wk 1 - 3/6 for 13 yds)
Marvin Harrison Jr - 4/8 for 130 yds, 2 TDs (Wk 1 - 1/3 for 4 yds)
Davante Adams - 9/12 for 110 yds, 1 TD (Wk 1 - 5/6 for 59 yds)
DK Metcalf - 10/14 for 129 yds, 1 TD (Wk 1 - 3/4 for 29 yds)
Zay Flowers - 7/11 for 91 yds, 1 TD (Wk 1 - 6/10 for 37 yds)
Davante Adams - 9/12 for 110 yds, 1 TD (Wk 1 - 5/6 for 59 yds)
JSN - 12/16 for 117 yds (Wk 1 - 2/2 for 19 yds)
Derrick Henry - 18 for 84 yds, 1 TD (Wk 1 - 13 for 46 yds, 1 TD)
Kyler Murray - 17/21 for 266 yds, 3 TDs (59 yds rushing) (Wk 1 - 162 passing yds, 1 TD (57 yds rushing))
Joe Burrow - 23/36 for 258 yds, 2 TDs (Wk 1 - 164 passing yds (15 yds rushing))
Trey McBride - 6/6 for 67 yds (Wk 1 - 5/9 for 30 yds)
An abundance of players cost managers week 1, but none of them cost a championship. More important than a player’s performance is an assessment of their team environment (neutral pass rate, QB play, OLine rating, defense, etc.). This is the purpose of the Team SITREPs preceding the player Bona Fides and Bulletins. Certain situations are more worrisome (Tua’s concussions) in terms of how they will affect other assets, making it all the more critical to consider various scenarios and possible outcomes. In these situations, The Agency advises:
Steadfast Patience - Agents plan, adapt, and regroup when a situation doesn’t go their way. Do not force the issue - better to look forward to the next opportunity than try to fix the current one. There will always be more opportunities.
Don’t Blow Your Cover - Stop seeking trades or putting players on the block in the wake of any negative news. If you have to convince your trade partner of something you wouldn’t do personally, you’re operating out of desperation. Your leaguemates will smell the blood in the water and they will come to dismantle your team of its best assets.
SITREP - Failed States
In the most extreme and final phase of failure, the following organizations can no longer protect their players from the doom they face every Sunday, and they have lost all respect from their citizen fans. In the world of fantasy, players on these teams should be avoided like the plague, albeit a few elite players who can withstand the calamity of these franchises.
Panthers - Much will be said of Bryce Young’s horrific QB play, but people who know football will discern he has been nothing more than a puppet leader of a horrifically run franchise. Their defense can't generate pressure, can't cover, & is devoid of talent. This side of the ball will be the Achilles heel of the team if they can't stop opposing teams & if the Panthers are down multiple scores early on. This forces the offense to be in catch-up mode early on.
Bryce looks shell-shocked trying to operate Canales’ offense. Completely unsettled, he tends to overthrow his receivers, often resulting in picks. I've never seen an offense with so many beta's; absolutely no explosive playmakers. There will be no chance of a run game if the team continues to be down by 3 TDs heading into halftime.
Instead of looking forward to the latter half of the season, the Panthers should be looking forward to next season.
**UPDATE** A new hero has risen to end the brutal tenure of Bryce Young. Despite Bryce being one of our top-rated QBs out of college, there is only so much torture a human can withstand, and the most merciful thing for Bryce is to be benched by Canales. Young still has a future somewhere else. As someone who lost their soul long ago in Cincinnati, Dalton can be thrown out to the wolves without sympathy or a second thought. The difference at QB will be night and day with the ghost mercenary who has nothing to lose. Is he good enough to elevate this team out of the Failed State tier? No, he's not God. Will he keep it close against a stretch of subpar teams and have some QB1 performances? Absolutely! Diontae, Chuba, and the rest of the Panthers' playmakers are no longer unstartable.
Neutral Pass Rate - 0.44 (22nd in NFL), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
OLine Rating - PassBlk = 76.7 (5th), RunBlk = 62.5 (21st), (Courtesy PFF)
QB Rating - Bryce Young = 31.8 (38th, Dead Last), (Courtesy PFF)
Run Rating - 65 (24th), (Courtesy PFF)
RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 12.2 pts (31st), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Receiving Rating - 53.7 (32nd), (Courtesy PFF)
WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 24.3 pts (17th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 4.1 pts (32nd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Defense - Overall = 47.6 (32nd), RunD = 51.3 (26th), PassRsh = 49.9 (32nd), Cov = 49.9 (28th), (Courtesy PFF)
Upcoming Schedule - At LV, home vs CIN, at CHI, home vs ATL, at WAS, at DEN, home vs NO, home vs NYG, home vs KC
Giants - The PFF grade doesn’t match what we saw from the Giants' offensive line. The line plays like they hate their QB, inviting every pass-rusher to a free lane to smash their signal caller. When he's not getting killed, Daniel Jones throws like he's cross-eyed, routinely missing WRs by wide margins. Malik Nabers is the lone bright spot of this team, but we fear that his talent isn't enough to overcome the ineptitude of this offense. The Giants' 4th-highest WR Fantasy Usage speaks to how exceptional Malik is as a talent. Brian Burns left a Hellhole in Carolina only to wind up in Purgatory in New York.
Neutral Pass Rate - 0.42 (25th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
OLine Rating - PassBlk = 76.3 (5th), RunBlk = 49.6 (30th), (Courtesy PFF)
QB Rating - Daniel Jones = 61.1 (21st), (Courtesy PFF)
Run Rating - 69.5 (18th), (Courtesy PFF)
RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 14.9 pts (29th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Receiving Rating - 62.3 (22nd), (Courtesy PFF)
WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 35.4 pts (4th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 6.3 pts (18th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Defense - Overall = 61.4 (19th), RunD = 52.1 (25th), PassRsh = 66.2 (14th), Cov = 62.8 (20th), (Courtesy PFF)
Upcoming Schedule - At CLE, home vs DAL, at SEA, home vs CIN, home vs PHI, at PIT, home vs WAS, at CAR, home vs TB
Commanders - Jayden Daniels’ is in a very tough spot: he has an awful offensive line and his receivers are usually covered. This leads to him tucking and running on most plays, which often results in big chunk plays for the talented rushing QB. The Commanders are completely devoted to their two-headed rushing attack with Brian Robinson and Daniels as the entirety of their offense. Their commitment to the run-game is impressive considering how many points they can be down thanks to their infamous defense. We would like to recommend the Medal of Honor for the bravery and valor Terry McLaurin has demonstrated for so many years in one of the most hostile environments in all of sports.
Neutral Pass Rate - 0.49 (13th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
OLine Rating - PassBlk = 63.5 (21st), RunBlk = 55.8 (27th), (Courtesy PFF)
QB Rating - Daniel Jones = 47.7 (32nd), (Courtesy PFF)
Run Rating - 76.6 (8th), (Courtesy PFF)
RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 22.6 pts (7th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Receiving Rating - 65.7 (16th), (Courtesy PFF)
WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 18.9 pts (27th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 6 pts (19th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Defense - Overall = 52.5 (31st), RunD = 65 (11th), PassRsh = 54.9 (29th), Cov = 44 (32nd), (Courtesy PFF)
Upcoming Schedule - At CIN, at ARI, home vs CLE, at BAL, home vs CAR, home vs CHI, at NYG, home vs PIT, at PHI
Broncos - Every drop back to pass looks like an impending car wreck with how often their receivers are blown up on slant routes. Unfortunately, it appears short passes and dump-offs are the only things Bo Nix can handle at this point. Anything further than 20 yards down the field would likely result in Bo Nix losing the interception battle to Hellmann’s Brains of the Turnover Titans. The Broncos line ranks dead last in run blocking, ruining any chance of a viable RB to operate outside of pass-catching opportunities. With Audric Estime on IR, there aren't any players on the Broncos that strike fear into opposing defenses.
Neutral Pass Rate - 0.46 (19th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
OLine Rating - PassBlk = 62.1 (22nd), RunBlk = 42 (32nd), (Courtesy PFF)
QB Rating - Bo Nix = 41.6 (37th, last if you don’t count Bryce Young), (Courtesy PFF)
Run Rating - 56.3 (31st), (Courtesy PFF)
RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 17.3 pts (25th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Receiving Rating - 56 (29th), (Courtesy PFF)
WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 29.4 pts (10th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 8.2 pts (12th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Defense - Overall = 54.4 (29th), RunD = 52.7 (23rd), PassRsh = 64.5 (18th), Cov = 55.3 (27th), (Courtesy PFF)
Upcoming Schedule - At TB, at NYJ, home vs LV, home vs LAC, at NO, home vs CAR, at BAL, at KC, home vs ATL
Jaguars - The Jaguars have the QB & head coach to compete for a playoff spot. The wide gap between their expectations and on-field product makes them the most disappointing team of this tier. The offensive line makes Trevor Lawrence worse than he is. Etienne’s performance is concerning compared to his #3 RB level of play in 2023. With Evan Engram out with a hamstring injury and Christian Kirk taking notes from ETN, the lone bright spot of this offense is Brian Thomas Jr. He is in a race to be one of the best rookies in 2024. The reign of Trevor Targaryen does not look promising in 2024.
Neutral Pass Rate - 0.24 (32nd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
OLine Rating - PassBlk = 59.4 (25th), RunBlk = 51.3 (29th), (Courtesy PFF)
QB Rating - Trevor Lawrence = 69.4 (12th), (Courtesy PFF)
Run Rating - 80.6 (4th), (Courtesy PFF)
RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 19.8 pts (15th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Receiving Rating - 63.1 (21st), (Courtesy PFF)
WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 20.2 pts (24th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 8.3 pts (11th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Defense - Overall = 59.2 (21st), RunD = 54.3 (22nd), PassRsh = 66.1 (15th), Cov = 58.9 (22nd), (Courtesy PFF)
Upcoming Schedule - At BUF, at HOU, home vs IND, at CHI, home vs NE, home vs GB, at PHI, home vs MIN, at DET
Titans - Is the Titan's defense elite? Not according to PFF. It appears that this is a trick of the mind, mainly due to their herculean efforts to cover up the treachery perpetrated by their saboteur QB, who has achieved new heights of destruction never thought possible. Despite a subpar offensive line and an average cast of playmakers, Levis’s policy of turnovers is unconscionable and will not stand for much longer. Pick up Mason Rudolph now for free in Dynasty Best Ball leagues.
Neutral Pass Rate - 0.47 (17th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
OLine Rating - PassBlk = 57.6 (26th), RunBlk = 64 (17th), (Courtesy PFF)
QB Rating - Will Levis = 42.1 (36th), (Courtesy PFF)
Run Rating - 74.2 (13th), (Courtesy PFF)
RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 20.6 pts (12th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Receiving Rating - 60.1 (26th), (Courtesy PFF)
WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 20.8 pts (22nd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 5.4 pts (24th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Defense - Overall = 54.1 (30th), RunD = 39.8 (31st), PassRsh = 60.2 (25th), Cov = 62.8 (20th), (Courtesy PFF)
Upcoming Schedule - home vs GB, at MIA, home vs IND, at BUF, at DET, home vs NE, at LAC, home vs MIN, at HOU
Browns - With plenty of offensive talent and an elite defense, the Browns have the best overall roster in this tier. This team lives and dies (mainly dies) off of the erratic play of their QB, Deshaun Watson. Contributing to the lethargy of this offense is the lack of health of key linemen. Watson has used his legs to compensate and looked to newcomer Jerry Judy in critical situations, but this isn't enough. The Browns can beat most teams when playing at their best, but we have little confidence Watson will consistently put his best foot forward.
Neutral Pass Rate - 0.62 (2nd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
OLine Rating - PassBlk = 56.3 (27th), RunBlk = 67.2 (13th), (Courtesy PFF)
QB Rating - Deshaun Watson = 68.6 (14th), (Courtesy PFF)
Run Rating - 61.5 (26th), (Courtesy PFF)
RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 19 pts (19th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Receiving Rating - 55.2 (30th), (Courtesy PFF)
WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 32.7 pts (5th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 5.8 pts (20th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Defense - Overall = 73.4 (8th), RunD = 60.7 (13th), PassRsh = 77.7 (3rd), Cov = 73.7 (9th), (Courtesy PFF)
Upcoming Schedule - Home vs NYG, at LV, at WAS, at PHI, home vs CIN, home vs BAL, home vs LAC, at NO, home vs PIT
Works Cited
PFF
NFL Week 2 Recap - Fantasy Usage Model by Hayden Winks
https://underdognetwork.com/football/analysis/nfl-week-2-recap-fantasy-usage-model-2024
The Dossier
Image created by ATM
Week 3 Waiver Targets
The South Harmon Agency has more high-tier operatives gathering intel than ever before. Be sure to keep your channel open and collect data from the various sources as it comes in. In terms of FAAB bidding, review your league’s previous waiver behavior to navigate the wire best. The waiver wire will become more bare as the season continues, especially in best ball formats.
Waiver Targets
The South Harmon Agency has more high-tier operatives gathering intel than ever before. Be sure to keep your channel open and collect data from the various sources as it comes in. In terms of FAAB bidding, review your league’s previous waiver behavior to navigate the wire best. The waiver wire will become more bare as the season continues, especially in best ball formats.
ReDraft (most of these players will be rostered in Dynasty leagues)
Braelon Allen - 21% rostership, 12-15% FAAB (Jumped from 18% to 35% snap share in wk. 2 and turned the increased opportunity into 2 TDs. If Breece ever misses time, Allen has RB1 potential)
Alec Pierce - 23% rostership, 10-13% FAAB (There’s no way the 3rd yr player keeps up this breakout pace, but take a shot on him in case we’re wrong)
Andrei Iosivas - 15% rostership, 10-12% FAAB (Not sure what his role will be once Higgins returns, but the Bengals looked a lot better in Wk. 2, & Iosivas looks like a top redzone target for Burrow)
Kareem Hunt - 0% rostership, 8-10% FAAB (Pacheco is out for 6-8 wks with a fractured fibula. Steele & Perine aren’t good. CEH is MIA. Hunt had 10 top-36 RB performances in 2023. Now he’s back in a Chiefs uniform.)
Quentin Johnston - 16% rostership, spend 8-10% FAAB (The Poster Child of Busts is no longer looking like one of the worst fantasy picks of all time)
Jalen Nailor - 4% rostership, 5-8% FAAB (with injuries now to both JJ & Addison, Nailor finds himself as the #1 on a dangerous looking Vikings team behind Sam Darnold - never expected to write this)
Jalen Tolbert - 6% rostership, 5-8% FAAB (Tolbert & Cooks could very easily trade weeks as the #2 in this high-powered offense. There’s also the chance Cooks could miss time at some point this season.)
Mike Gesicki - 10% rostership, 5-7% FAAB (The Bengals have never prioritized their TEs, but that could all change this yr.)
Dynasty
Andy Dalton - 9% rostership, 25-30% FAAB (You should already have him holstered, but if he’s somehow available, you pony up to acquire him. He was the QB7 in week 3 last yr and won’t relinquish the starting role for the ROS. If you need a QB3, send up to 2x 3rds via trade.)
Josh Reynolds - 53% rostership, 8-10% FAAB (Bo Nix doesn’t look the greatest, but Reynolds deserves to be rostered as the #2 option in a team that will look to pass a lot when behind)
D’Onta Foreman - 45% rostership, 8-10% FAAB (Consistently overlooked, Foreman always finds himself on the field with a decent share of the opportunities. Surprised to see him out-touch Ford 15 to 8)
Atwell/Whittington - 34% & 71% rostership, 5-8% FAAB (The Rams WR room has come under attack. Look for Tutu & Jordan to be the top receivers if Robinson & Tyler go down to injury in wk. 3)
Noah Brown - 32% rostership, 5% FAAB in Best Ball only (Jayden & The Commanders are obsessed with running, but in a given week Noah has the potential to be a top 2-3 receiving option for the team)
The Dossier
Image created by ATM
Week 1 Dossier
2024 is my year! This isn’t JUST some mantra you’ve made up in your head, like some “self-help” BS. No, you worked your ass off this entire Summer with the countless hours of YouTube you’ve binged! This year’s championship won’t be yours because you earned it… you were CALLED to it. Like a sacred trust, this responsibility falls to you because no one else was born to bear such a heavy burden as you.
Surprise Attack!
Hey, maybe you haven't been keeping up on current events, but we just got our asses kicked, pal!
Hudson - Aliens
Tora! Tora! Tora!
2024 is my year! This isn’t JUST some mantra you’ve made up in your head, like some “self-help” BS. No, you worked your ass off this entire Summer with the countless hours of YouTube you’ve binged! This year’s championship won’t be yours because you earned it… you were CALLED to it. Like a sacred trust, this responsibility falls to you because no one else was born to bear such a heavy burden as you.
Thursday evening rolls in and you can barely contain what you have waited months to unleash on every poor soul in your leagues. This is just another BUG Hunt! I’m gonna lay waste to these mofo’s-
Mark Andrews - 2/2 for 14 yds
Travis Kelce - 3/4 for 34 yds
Dalton Kincaid - 1/2 for 11 yds
Trey McBride - 5/9 for 30 yds
Evan Engram - 1/4 for 5 yds
Jake Ferguson - 3/5 for 15 yds and hurt
Those are TEs! Of course, I wasn’t dumb enough to invest early capital in them! If you take a look at my elite wide-
Amon-Ra St. Brown - 3/6 for 13 yds
Puka Nacua - 4/4 for 35 yds and on IR
Marvin Harrison Jr - 1/3 for 4 yds
Chris Olave - 2/2 for 11 yds
Brandon Aiyuk - 2/5 for 28 yds
Drake London - 2/3 for 15 yds
Michael Pittman Jr - 4/8 for 31 yds
DK Metcalf - 3/4 for 29 yds
Zay Flowers - 6/10 for 37 yds
Amari Cooper - 2/9 for 16 yds
Terry McLaurin - 2/4 for 17 yds
All of the Bears Receivers
But wait, if they played bad, that means….. Oh God, MY SUPERFLEX QBs!!!
Kyler Murray - 162 passing yds, 1 TD (57 yds rushing)
Caleb Williams - 93 passing yds (15 yds rushing)
Brock Purdy - 231 passing yds (11 yds rushing)
Joe Burrow - 164 passing yds (15 yds rushing)
Trevor Lawrence - 162 passing yds, 1 TD (8 yds rushing)
Justin Herbert - 144 passing yds, 1 TD (6 yds rushing)
Kirk Cousins - 155 passing yds, 1 TD, 2 INTs
Deshaun Watson - 169 passing yds, 1 TD, 2 INTs (39 yds rushing)
Aaron Rodgers - 167 passing yds, 1 TD, 1 INT (-1 yds rushing)
Daniel Jones - 186 passing yds, 2 INTs (15 yds rushing)
Bo Nix - 138 passing yds, 2 INTs (35 yds rushing, 1 TD)
Will Levis - 127 passing yds, 1 TD, 2 INTs (36 yds rushing)
Bryce Young - 161 yds passing, 2 INTs (12 yds rushing, 1 TD)
That makes no sense! If all of the QBs played poorly and all the WRs and TEs suffered because of it, then who the hell scored all the points in week 1?!
Saquon Barkley - 132 total yds, 3 total TDs
De’Von Achane - 100 total yds, 1 TD
Joe Mixon - 178 total yds, 1 TD
Kenneth Walker III - 109 total yds, 1 TD
Alvin Kamara - 110 total yds, 1 TD
Rhamondre Stevenson - 126 total yds, 1 TD
Aaron Jones - 109 total yds, 1 TD
Jordan Mason - 152 total yds, 1 TD
J.K. Dobbins - 139 total yds, 1 TD - HE HAS RISEN!
HA! You thought you figured out fantasy football, didn’t ya?! Every piece of data and every single person in the space has championed WRs and a bounce back for QBs in 2024. Turns out the move was to scoop up all the value that fell at RB, especially in the early-mid rounds.
To be clear, I am obviously overreacting to Week 1. What other coping mechanism do I have when crumpling up my early retirement speach (my retirement, my spouse would still work)? Luckily for most people, just about everyone in your league suffered lower scoring. When looking at the first six rounds of SF Dynasty Startup ADP:
Standard Scoring, SF, 0 TE premium -
Only 9 of the top 17 QBs scored above 15 pts (52.9%)
7 of the top 18 RBs scored above 15 pts (38.9%)
6 of the top 29 WRs scored above 15 pts (20.7%)
1 of the top 8 TEs scored above 10 pts (12.5%)
Don’t panic, its only week 1. Defenses have the edge early in the season while teams acclimate to their new offenses and players continue to develop chemistry with one another (or so they say). Worst case scenario, you grow impatient and by week 3 you have to trade away Amon-Ra St. Brown for the incredible haul of Jordan Mason, Derek Carr, Baker Mayfield, J.K. Dobbins, Allen Lazard, Alec Pierce, Isaiah Likely, and Foster Moreau.
Waiver Targets
The South Harmon Agency has more high-tier operatives gathering intel than ever before. Be sure to keep your channel open and collect data from the various sources as it comes in. In terms of FAAB bidding, review your league’s previous waiver behavior to navigate the wire best. The waiver wire will become more bare as the season continues, especially in best ball formats.
ReDraft (most of these players will be rostered in Dynasty leagues)
Jordan Mason - 56% rostership, spend 20-35% FAAB (The Madden Curse is alive and well. Mason is an RB1 on this SF team for every calamity that befalls CMC)
Brandin Cooks - 39% rostership, spend 15-20% FAAB (With Ferguson hurt, Cooks is the clear #2 on an offense looking to repeat as the highest-passing team in the league)
Rashid Shaheed - 44% rostership, 15-20% FAAB (Perfect upside player for Best Ball formats, his only issue has been staying consistently healthy)
Demarcus Robinson - 12% rostership, 12-15% FAAB (The #2 on a high-powered offense as long as Puka is out and was a league winner last year)
Greg Dortch - 11% rostership, 12-15% FAAB (A favorite target for Kyler and has proven to be a reliable player with past play)
Tank Bigsby - 11% rostership, 10-12% FAAB (very surprising considering how bad he was last year but an offseason of “chopping wood” and other types of Mr. Miyagi training seems to have done him a world of good)
Bucky Irving - 25% rostership, 10% FAAB (great project profile, but draft capital, landing spot, and size were all previous deterring factors. If he continues dominant play, the Bucs will have to play him more despite the same skillset as White)
Justice Hill - 12% rostership, 8-10% FAAB Best Ball only (Will likely only out-snap King Henry in negative game scripts but the Ravens have always loved Hill for his versatility as runner and pass-catcher)
Alexander Mattison - 10% rostership, 8-10% FAAB (Mattison > Zamir, plus Alex has pass-catching upside)
Tucker Kraft - 6% rostership, 8-10% FAAB (Has apparently supplanted Luke Musgrave as the Packers TE1, but it doesn’t matter until Love is healthy again)
Wan’Dale Robinson - 19% rostership, 5-8% FAAB (has the #2 role locked up behind Nabers, but it's the Giants…)
Jalen McMillan - 13% rostership, 5-8% FAAB (If Baker continues his high level of play, the WR3 could have some decent weeks, especially in Best Ball)
Dynasty
Tyler Johnson - 0% rostership, 3-5% FAAB in Best Ball only (Only has appeal as long as Puka is out and has competition with Kupp, Robinson, Colby, & Whittington)
Jalen Nailor - 34% rostership, 5% FAAB (outside of JJ, the offense is wide open to opportunity with so many key pass-catchers hurt)
A Taste of Things to Come
Here is what you can expect from the weekly Dossier this season:
Team Situation Reports (SITREP) - Replacing the commonly utilized “Game Recap,” Field Agents can expect breakdowns of the NFL into 4 Tiers of Team Rankings: Superpowers, Besieged Powers, Depressed States, and Failed States. Beginning with the Failed State Franchises, you’ll receive an overview of the team’s performances, critical Usage Activity reports for players, and actionable projections. Each team will receive two SITREPs throughout the season.
Bona Fides - The South Harmon Agency has the most rigorous testing program for each cornerstone position in fantasy football. Data pertains to the top-ranking players in each statistical category of major importance. Field Agents can begin pursuing high-value assets for their championship missions with this intel.
Agency Bulletin - These assets are heavily vetted by our intelligence officers and qualify as our highest-priority trade candidates based on performance, value, and rest-of-season projections. The Agency looks to continue building on the high success rate of last year’s campaign.
Field Reports - Classified Reports from the Agency’s Department of Intelligence & Field Operations. These in-depth manuals combine the latest analytical research, strategies, and tactics for our highest-tiered operatives.
Your Superior Officers will be in contact with you throughout the 2024 mission. Good luck.
The Dossier
Image created by ATM
Underdog 40,000
The stir of infected winds howled as the Space Marine labored through the trenches. Once a place of deafening destruction and incessant frenzy was now hollow with mumbled groans and subdued anguish. The marine’s armor sunk deep into the blackened mud as he kneeled beside one of his comrades. The stricken soldier was immobile, albeit the frequent shudders of mind-numbing pain, often progressing into convulsions of indescribable agony. The fallen soldier’s skin was translucent and pale, as fragile as dead, soiled leaves. His body was covered with pockets of sunken yellowed sores. His milk-white eyes rolled restlessly as he clung to life until his labored breath came to an abrupt standstill.
Part 3 - TE & WR Hits, Misses, and Projections
The Green God
The stir of infected winds howled as the Space Marine labored through the trenches. Once a place of deafening destruction and incessant frenzy was now hollow with mumbled groans and subdued anguish. The marine’s armor sunk deep into the blackened mud as he kneeled beside one of his comrades. The stricken soldier was immobile, albeit the frequent shudders of mind-numbing pain, often progressing into convulsions of indescribable agony. The fallen soldier’s skin was translucent and pale, as fragile as dead, soiled leaves. His body was covered with pockets of sunken yellowed sores. His milk-white eyes rolled restlessly as he clung to life until his labored breath came to an abrupt standstill.
Every marine that lived through the initial onslaught and saw the Virus Bomb fall was now at various stages of the same affliction. Their forces overrun by Tyranids, the Imperium saw no alternative than to unleash their bioweapon upon the planet’s surface as the final solution. The bomb was dropped with one legion holding out as the final remnant of defense. No order of retreat was given to the soldiers. The weapon was designed to wipe out all non-human combatants instantly, which it did to great effect. Unfortunately, any member of the Imperium caught in the winds of its fallout suffered a maligned and drawn-out death.
“There is no honor in this,” the marine said as he stared at his dead comrade. “The Imperium has abandoned us. Forgotten by the Emperor Himself. What is left other than for us to vanish completely out of memory and into death?”
“Do not lose heart brother, all must come to rot and ruin before they can be reborn,” the dead soldier muttered with cold breath.
The Space Marine recoiled in horror, “What DEVILRY is this!?”
“Devilry? Ha!” the corpse laughed, its throat choking with phlegm. “My embrace is the most natural phenomenon in all of Creation. I welcome everyone into my home and to eat from my garden,” the dead soldier smiled.
“Who are you?”
“I am the caretaker of castaways, Lord of Decay, shepherd of the dead, and father of the TE.”
“HERESY! TEs are a pestilent position!” the Space Marine said spitefully. “A plague upon the Tournament of Mania!”
They are the first to suffer from any poor offense
(2024 = Sanders, Theo, Chig, Dissly)
So many are overshadowed by the other weapons on offense
(2024 = Jonnu, Goedert, Colby, Otton, Fant, Kmet, Gesiki, Schultz, Musgrave)
It’s only when the #1 receiver is hurt that they rise to championship-level production
(2024 = Bowers, Ferguson, Taysom, Freirmuth, Engram)
So often are they overlooked and misused by their coaches
2023 = Pitts, Dulcich, Chig, Gesicki, Fant (2024 = Freirmuth, Jonnu, Dulcich, Fant, Gesicki)
They can be overtaken by younger, more explosive backups
2023 = Ertz (2024 = Ertz)
Rarely do they become the top redzone option on offenses
2023 = Hunter, Musgrave (2024 = Ertz, Conklin, Bowers)
“And where do you find yourself, servant of the Imperium? Mere weeks ago, you were a proud Legion of the Emperor, feeding off of destruction. But now, as your body swells with foul disease and your wounds rip open to welcome new infections, you have become so much more glorious! You have found a greater purpose in your darkest hour.”
“Greater purpose?” the marine inquired.
“The Imperium may have dropped the bomb on this planet, but by whose power were your allies and enemies brought to putrescence? With every tragedy, you have fought against me, and with every hardship, I have been by your side. I have reached from the muck and mire to increase the weight of your burden, so that day by day you would grow stronger. This testing is the only way to become what all mankind fears most: death.”
“You are a daemon! Here to torture me in my final moments with your poisoned words!”
“I take no pleasure in such things son. I am a god of joy and laughter, not of doom or despair. My children know that each moment is a gift. That is why I have come. To show you.”
“Show me what?”
The dead soldier’s necrotic hand slowly reached toward the Space Marine’s face. The transition was instant. The marine was standing over his own dead body. “I am the Lord of Life and Rot,” said the voice in the soldier’s head. Time passed quickly in the vision. His once lustrous armor quickly browned with rust. “You wave my color green proudly in your banners. But the moment I bloom beneath your skin, you bleed me out.” His skin was alive with flesh-eating bacteria. “Red is the color of your wrath, but green is what your wrath leaves behind.” All that remained was a skeleton, worn down by time. “My decay shall strip your flesh. My verdigris in all of its shades and hues shall cover your skull. Everything you hold dear eventually comes back to me. In the end, I am an inevitability that all must face. All I need is time.”
Image created by T-Rock using Midjourney
“What do you want from me?” the marine asked.
“I want you to forget no insult or forgive any slight. Let your bitterness fester and your blood boil. Champion what they hate most. Become a steward of the TE and let your fury spread as a virulent plague across the galaxy. Or, you can spend what little time you have left, wallowing in pain and sorrow.”
The marine peeled his glare away from the Lord of Pestilence and stared down the entrenchment. He was the last living member of his legion. “What must I do?” he finally responded.
“You must:
Recognize the teams that funnel their offenses through their TE
(2024 = Andrews, Kincaid)
Foresee the offenses that are an RB injury away from a pass-heavy offense
(2024 = Ferguson, Kittle, Kincaid, Conklin, Bowers, Njoku, Musgrave, Conklin)
Not fear the aging veteran, but expect a steady volume
(2024 = Kelce, Andrews)
Count on steady volume from solid offenses
(2024 = Kelce, Andrews, LaPorta, McBride, Kincaid, Ferguson, Kittle, Pitts, Ferguson, Conklin, Freirmuth)
“Finally, you must entrust your spirit to me,” the Plaguefather continued. “I will take away all misery and all despair. I will raise your brothers from the dead and give them a new life, free of suffering.”
“Our enemies shall wither and die. The Imperium shall wither and die. The universe shall fall into corruption and from the rot and ruin the Lord of All shall rise,” replied the Plague Marine.
Weaknesses of the Flesh
A man can have anything if he is willing to sacrifice. No other place in the universe tests this principle greater than the Dark Prince’s Realm. Those who enter will not encounter grotesque adversaries of mammoth strength guarding its borders. Nor will they be forced to brave treacherous environments. Such overt obstacles of rebuff serve no purpose here. Instead, the God of Pleasure treats all visitors as honored guests, inviting them to indulge every hunger, gratify every lust, and pursue every whim of desire. A domain of excess and splendor, it draws in all those who wish to experience the spectacular heights of the WR position, and ensnares everyone who falls prey to its many pitfalls. To prove mastery over his flesh, the Primarch approached the first circle of corruption.
Trees of silver and tall fields of gold shimmered brilliantly in the sunlight as the Primarch walked by. Their metallic exteriors sang hypnotically as they swayed back and forth in the cool afternoon breeze. The precious flora grew from a soil of ruby that stretched for miles toward a horizon of sapphire peaks. Just as beautiful as this merchant’s paradise was the gentle voice in the wind that welcomed the Primarch.
“Ahh, a son of the Emperor. No one of your stature has ever graced my realm before,” she said elegantly. “Come with me and explore the treasure of my fields, Primarch. Store up for yourself riches beyond measure. With this wealth, one can truly pave their way in the Tournament with the backing of the WR.”
Spend up for the top options in high-performing offenses
(2024 = Lamb, Tyreek, Amon-Ra, Chase, AJ, Aiyuk, Nico, MHJ, Garrett, Pittman)
Do not worry about any offseason changes. You will have security in these elite options.
(2024 = Olave, Adams, Evans, McLaurin, DK, Amari)
Seek the WRs that can operate at all levels of the field as the major receiving option
(2024 = McLaurin, Olave)
“For many men, fortune is a sea that keeps them afloat during uncertainty. A tide that brings them to new ventures. But more often, it is treacherous swell, tossing them back and forth with its waves of worry, and seeking to pull men down under its crushing pressure,” replied the Primarch. His armored boots constantly kicked loose gemstones that lined the flawless diamond pathway.
Do not overlook age as a significant factor
(2024 = Keenan, Diggs, Ridley, Hopkins, Lockett, Cooks)
Do not discount high-passing offenses with funneled targets
(2024 = Lamb, Amon-Ra, Chase, MHJ)
Do not underestimate line issues or quarterback injuries
(2024 = Nabers, McLaurin, Olave, Kirk, Chase, Amari, Palmer)
Do not overlook the unique and explosive players on amazing offenses
(2024 = Waddle, Worthy, Flowers)
It wasn’t long until the narrow road was littered with the remains of past visitors, who refused to let go of their prized possessions, and were crushed under the weight of their material greed.
The Primarch continued into the second circle, led by the heavenly aroma of smoked meat that wafted through the air. He entered a great hall, dimly lit by candlelight, where a solitary chair was seated at the head of a vast banquet table. Each plate of food was decadently presented, each dish masterfully executed, and each morsel perfectly balanced.
Image created by T-Rock using Midjourney
“Come and dine with me, son of the Imperium,” the voice invited. “Take your ease and eat from my table. Drink and bring gladness to your heart. You will need your strength in the Tournament.”
Enjoy these alpha receivers who excelled on less impressive offenses
(2024 = Jefferson, Adams, Nabers, DK, McLaurin, Amari, Pickens, Diontae, Sutton)
Delight in those who benefited from injuries to their WR teammates
(2024 = Aiyuk, Olave, Flowers, Pittman, Moore/Rome, Rice/Worthy, BTJ, Polk)
Look forward to offenses that will perform exceptionally well under new QBs
(2024 = DJ/Rome/Keenan, McLaurin, Pickens, London, Garrett)
“What are these foods compared to the dish served after a hard-fought battle? The meal enjoyed with comrades? The feast you prepare for your son on his name day?” he replied.
Anticipate WRs who emerge as focal points despite various challenges
(2024 = MHJ, Rome, Nabers, BTJ)
Avoid WRs with nagging injuries and fade on explosive offenses
(2024 = Waddle, Tank, Downs)
Prepare for some offenses to dip from the previous year and become less consistent
(2024 = Cooks, Curtis/Shakir, Amari, Evans/Godwin)
Some WRs will feast as the only weapon on struggling offenses
(2024 = Jefferson, Nabers, Diontae, Palmer, Polk)
The plating became increasingly chaotic and haphazardly prepared as the Primarch continued past the foul buffet. At the end of the long table, flickers of suspended chandeliers revealed flayed and charred flesh of an all-too-familiar form. Yesterday’s guest had become today’s meal for the next trencherman to gorge their voracious appetites.
Exiting the great dining hall, moonlight shined on the Primarch as he entered the grounds of a serene palace garden that stretched into the night sky. The royal garden was tremendous in scope, filled with an endless labyrinth of exotic greenery, tranquil pools, and discreet paths fit for a king to seclude themselves in meditation. The Primarch came to the edge of a grand staircase, overlooking the palatial backyard. At the foot of its steps was gathered a large host of the Imperium. Dressed in ceremonial uniform, his comrades and kin honored the Primarch’s triumphant entry with reverent applause. Descending the marble steps, he entered the massed throng of rank and nobility. Hidden amongst the faces of the crowd, the Lord of Excess whispered, “Well done, faithful son of the Imperium. You have brought great honor to your father, the Emperor. Your achievements will be immortalized forever through monuments and songs. Write your name in the stars and take your rightful place as the WR champion.”
Rely upon these secondary options in elite offenses
(2024 = Waddle, Deebo, DeVonta, Kupp, Diggs, Higgins, Cooks)
Be satisfied with these tertiary options
(2024 = Tolbert, Shakir, Robinson, Iosivas, Dortch, Gipson)
Celebrate these consistent receivers and their solidified roles
(2024 = DeVonta, DJ, Deebo, Keenan, Kupp, Godwin, Reed, Cooks, Downs, Curtis, DeMario, Wan’Dale, Boyd, Dortch, Gipson)
The Primarch replied, “These monuments are dust and these songs are merely words, soon forgotten. The calibre of a man runs reverse to their need to make their worth known. The strong are strongest alone!”
Their QB’s poor play will cap their potential
(2024 = Jefferson, Malik, Diontae, Ridley, Amari)
These WRs will struggle under the spotlight of the WR1 role
(2024 = Flowers, Keon, Pickens, Polk)
Inconsistency will hamper their 2024 campaign
(2024 = Waddle, Watson/Doubs/Reed, London, Sutton)
Disappointing offenses will unfairly label these WRs as busts
(2024 = Ladd, Keon, Legette, Franklin)
In an instant, the once lively party fell deathly silent. Each member of the multitude had become a statue of ash that soon collapsed under their weight, creating a vast plain of black soot. The pure white sculptures that once adorned the maze of vegetation had lost all luster. Their dignified poses twisted into horrifying expressions. The peaceful flow of fountains ceased. The venerable garden was now an unnerving graveyard.
The Primarch continued his journey and entered the dark woods at the edge of the decadent estate. With no glow from the moon filtering through the dense tree canopy, the path was lost in the pitch-black forest.
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After hours of walking, the Primarch emerged from the cursed grove and gazed upon a magnificent ocean, caught in the solemnity of a twilight sky. The Primarch had reached the presumed last circle of the Dark Prince’s Realm. He wandered through the soft sands of its heavenly shores until he finally stopped to admire the sunrise in all of its glory as night departed. Caught in its rapture, the final temptation could be heard in between the crashing of the waves.
“Oh, devoted son of the Imperium. You have known nothing but war and sacrifice,” she said warmly. “Your body is spent and your soul is weary. You have nothing left to give. Come to me and I will take away all of your pain. Struggle will be but a distant memory. Unburden yourself of your heavy armor. Retire your arms from service. Your fight is over. Peace and rest is yours at last.”
Rest assured, these options will have little competition
(2024 = Olave, Nabers, McLaurin, Ladd/Palmer)
Look forward to these offenses taking a big leap forward with their receivers
(2024 = Colts, Bears, Cardinals, Falcons, Seahawks, Chiefs)
“Rest? We were not made to rest. I have no concern for home or hearth, such things are vanity. My privilege is the dirt, my birthright is suffering, and my freedom is war. Peace? There is no such thing amongst the stars, only an eternity of carnage and slaughter. Find someone else to enslave!” the Primarch laughed at the Thirsting God.
Expect these WRs to develop into excellent route runners on great offenses
(2024 = Amon-Ra, Puka, London, Pittman, Nico, DJ, Waddle)
Have confidence the head coach will transform these receivers into #1’s
(2024 = Pittman, Rice)
Their skillsets pair uniquely well with their upgraded QBs
(2024 = Garrett, London, McLaurin, Pickens)
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instrumentum
Image created by T-Rock using Midjourney. Perfected by ATM
This series is dedicated to my brother Malik, the Hellhound Primarch
Underdog 40,000
Doubt. Remorse. Fear. These emotions are held back through relentless training and devotion to the Imperium. But in a soldier’s final breaths, the dam they built can come crashing down, flooding their minds with despair. These brief moments of anguish perpetuate into an eternity of torment as the Sea of Chaos sweeps away their souls into the WoRP. Once a peaceful realm, millennia of war and evil have corrupted the WoRP dimension into a hellish landscape, with each new resident being more vile than the previous.
Part 2 - RB & QB Hits, Misses, and Projections
The WoRP
Doubt. Remorse. Fear. These emotions are held back through relentless training and devotion to the Imperium. But in a soldier’s final breaths, the dam they built can come crashing down, flooding their minds with despair. These brief moments of anguish perpetuate into an eternity of torment as the Sea of Chaos sweeps away their souls into the WoRP. Once a peaceful realm, millennia of war and evil have corrupted the WoRP dimension into a hellish landscape, with each new resident being more vile than the previous.
Image created by T-Rock using Midjourney
Presiding over this underworld are the Gods of Chaos. Representing the four cornerstone positions, each god has inspired a cult following within the Imperium, and untold billions who have given their lives to the deities. Recognition from the gods as a champion of the faith is the highest honor for a follower. Their reward is a divine blessing of unnatural powers in life and rank among their demonic legions in death. But garnering attention from supreme beings is no easy feat. If ever allowed to kneel before their thrones, each soldier must recount every victory they fought for and every failure they suffered in the Tournament of Mania.
Blood & Bone
The distinct rev of chainswords and cries of battle were all around the solider. Man versus Demon. Apostate against Mutant. The RB Truthers were locked in an eternal skirmish under a crimson sky, from which a ceaseless torrent of skulls rained down. Stretching into the horizon were hills of decaying faces surrounded by an endless ocean of bone and flesh. These were the trophies claimed by the RB Truthers in the Tournament of Mania for their god. He loomed in the distance, as large as a mountain underneath the falling cascade of ivory and marrow upon a throne of brass and skulls. With gauntlets of blackened armor, the figure raised a colossal sword and brought it crashing down upon his bloodstained court, initiating the dreadful proceedings for the newly departed soldier.
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“BREAK! RIP! TEAR!” the god’s voice roared. “With shoulders of iron, charge the enemy lines! With unbridled strength, hold back the enemy's advance! With ravenous anger, trample underfoot every foe in your path!!!”
Then came a great shout from the battlefield, “Blood for the Blood God! Skulls for the Skull Throne!”
The Blood God bellowed in laughter as he slowly turned his attention to the latest reinforcement for the perpetual conflict. “And YOU! What spoils do you bring ME?!”
“God of War!” the soldier shouted. “I have done great honor to the RB in the Great Tournament!”
I sought out consistent, central fixtures of offenses
2023 = CMC & Henry (2024 = Henry, Kamara)
I raised up the dual-threat weapon that operated in the top offenses and received ample opportunities
2023 = CMC & Kyren (2024 = CMC & Jacobs)
I foresaw backups usurping starters
2023 = Hubbard (2024 = Spears & Dowdle)
I can envision workhorses who control the entire backfield on successful offenses
(2024 = CMC, Breece, Saquon, Henry, JT, Jacobs, Pacheco, Mixon, ETN, White)
I project little goal-line opportunities for a team that will look to pass in the redzone
2023 = Packers (2024 = Bears)
Finally, I expect the following RBs to play well in rotation and profit from goal-line touches
(2024 = Montgomery, Ray Davis, Gus Edwards)
“MORE! I NEED MORE!!!” barked the god in anger. “Here, there is no peace, only the time wasted between battles. And you have wasted my time with your failures to build my throne!”
Could you not foresee the deterioration of an offense?
(2024 = Singletary, Edwards)
Did you believe this RB could handle being the Bell-Cow?
(2024 = Zamir)
Why didn’t you anticipate injury or lost touches to talented backups?
(2024 = Gibbs, Kyren, Conner, Mostert, A. Jones, Swift)
With so few WRs, could you not count on a run-heavy offense?
(2024 = Breece, Henry, Cook, Kamara, Najee, Rhamondre, Robinson, Pollard, Singeltary, Chuba)
You didn’t prioritize goal-line opportunities on the top offenses?
(2024 = CMC, Henry, Montgomery, Mostert, JT, Jacobs, Mixon, Kyren)
You lost faith these RBs could not compensate for their rushing inefficiency with their catching prowess?
(2024 = ETN, Cook, Jacobs, Kamara)
You were not ready for the age cliff?
(2024 = Mostert, Ekeler, Conner, Kamara, Mixon)
You couldn’t discern the wide talent gap between the backup and the starter?
(2024 = Charbonnet, Ekeler, Kendre)
You fell victim to Preseason hype?
(2024 = Steele, Wright, Vidal)
Did you misjudge his potential role in an ambiguous backfield?
(Chase Brown, Zeke)
“Master! Allow me to return to the Tournament of Mania! With this knowledge, I will spill more blood for your battlefield and claim more skulls for your throne,” the soldier cried out with his fist clenched.
“There are none who can stand in our way. None who can match our power. None who are feared more on the battlefield,” the Blood God boiled. “But you do not seek destruction, nor do you revel in gore you coward!” he snapped. “Wrath, fury, strength… these are the weapons my warriors use to wage war and shake the foundations of the WoRP! You are not fit to champion the way of the RB,” he said pointing at the soldier.
“But master!” the soldier cried out as he was descended upon by the demonic servants forged in the hellscape.
Unworthy of the warrior’s paradise, the soldier’s soul was tossed into the infinite void of the WoRP stream, where he would be feasted upon for the rest of time.
The Maze of Madness
“How long have we wandered this labyrinth?” the reflection inquired. “Years? Days? Millennia?” asked the figure in the crystal walls. “Who are you again? Help me to recollect.”
The Commander gritted his teeth and dared not to look at his reflection in the mirrored walls of the maze. “Through trial comes triumph,” he constantly recited. It was the latest in an endless loop of tormenting visions and living nightmares meant to tear the mind asunder. Such is the price when entering the Realm of the Sorcerer in pursuit of infinite knowledge. Nowhere else in the universe does chaos exist more purely than in the dimension of change, the domain of the Great Mutator.
“You’re not really here. This place is just a figment of your imagination,” the shadow continued. “You’re probably wandering through the trenches of a forgotten battlefield, raving to yourself like a shell-shocked maniac, waist-deep in corpses. You’ll never survive the Tournament of Mania!”
“I shall pass out of darkness and reach the light,” the Commander said to himself.
Turning a corner, the high-ranking soldier finally reached what he long sought. The ninth and final gate would grant passage out of the Crystal Labyrinth and into the Impossible Fortress. Hidden deep inside the castle was the legendary Hidden Library, where every truth, thought, reality, and possibility existed as written catalogs. The imperial officer inched closer to the portal, ablaze in pink and blue WoRPfire. Hanging over the large doorway floated a large disembodied mouth.
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“The Changer of Ways bids thee welcome,” smiled the grotesque mouthpiece, widening the gashes in its lips.
“Guardian of the Maze, the Weaver of Destinies has brought me here before you, to follow the ambitious path of the QB. I seek their sorcerous powers to bend fate to my will and reshape reality. I vow to reject error, cast out ignorance, and eradicate impurfection. I understand in the Tournament of Mania:
QBs that have a strong cast of redzone pass-catchers , as well rushing upside, have the strongest potential
(2024 = Hurts, Kyler, Caleb)
The elite rushers have the safest floors and highest ceilings
(2024 = Lamar, Richardson, Daniels)
Some will outperform their ADP because of their surrounding talent
(2024 = Geno, Baker, Rodgers, Carr)
And some will elevate their subpar environments
(2024 = Daniels, Russell)
“Ahhh, you boast of perfection, son of the Imperium!?” chomped the gatekeeper. “But the Raven God is both the Lord of Change and Entropy. What are the heights of enlightenment compared to the inescapable chasms of darkness? To know what waits in the shadows and screams in the night. To be a Dark God is to understand the deepest depths of fear itself.”
“Please lord, let me gaze upon these hidden secrets!” said the Imperium Commander.
The mouth grinned, flashing its pointed yellow teeth and black gums. “Very well.”
Offenses significantly decline from a lack of explosive weapons
2023 = Mahomes (2024 = Allen, Herbert)
Some QBs have excellent rushing upside, but struggle with processing
2023 = Fields (2024 = Levis)
There are QBs we are still waiting on to operate at their potential
(2024 = TLaw, Watson)
Some teams become top passing offenses that few anticipated
2023 = Cowboys, Packers (2024 = Bengals)
Few offenses are built to make the jump from good to elite
2023 = Lions (2024 = Falcons)
Rookie QBs on projected weak teams are often underestimated
(2024 = Maye, Nix)
Low expectations for high passing volume and a career resurgence can spell value
2023 = Baker (2024 = Russell, Young, Darnold)
The Commander stared into the void of the portal as the Guardian’s abominable speech slowly entered his mind. A deep sorrow washed over him as distant and forgotten memories came back into thought. These recollections were slowly remade into new, foreign images, as if his psyche were being corrupted by an outside force. On instinct, he closed his eyes to shield himself from the mental bombardment, but this only quickened the perverse nightmare he was suffering. Unable to fathom the primordial horrors that had invaded his soul, the soldier cried out in terror. A tentacled tongue burst out of the commander’s mouth, wrapping itself around his face. Soon, hairy arachnid appendages and insect antennae ripped through his skin as he transformed. Beginning in his mind and shifting to his body, the metamorphosis was complete. The Imperial Officer was now another loyal spawn for the Great Conspirator to puppet, fulfilling what the deceiving god had fated long ago.
instrumentum
Image created by T-Rock using Midjourney. Perfected by ATM
This series is dedicated to my brother Malik, the Hellhound Primarch
Underdog 40,000
It is the 41st Millennium in the Solum Canis galaxy. For centuries the Emperor has sat upon a boisterous throne as the ruler of the Imperium, by the will of the gods. He leads a never-ending campaign, turning the galaxy into his arena where he presides over a tournament of endless chaos.
Part 1 - Review of 2023
The Imperium
It is the 41st Millennium in the Solum Canis galaxy. For centuries the Emperor has sat upon a boisterous throne as the ruler of the Imperium, by the will of the gods. He leads a never-ending campaign, turning the galaxy into his arena where he presides over a tournament of endless chaos.
At the Emperor’s right hand is seated the Council of Creation. They manifest his will through the hellbent expansion of the Imperium. But now, the Council serves as regents with unlimited power for an emperor who has lost his mind to madness. They control all legions throughout the galaxy, including the Enlisted Guard, the Data Harvesters, the Scouting Conclave, and the Furnace Brotherhood. This untold myriad of forces keeps every horror that gushes through from the galactic rim at bay. It is their sacred duty to wage war against the degenerate, the apostate, and the demonic.
Five years into this latest Tournament of Mania, a new season of war is fast approaching and the Council deliberates on how they will wage their upcoming offensive. But before your league can be mobilized, the previous year’s campaign must be carefully reviewed.
Pandemonium
Functioning as the brain for the Imperial Legion are the Data Harvesters. They are gatekeepers to secret knowledge and arm the Emperor’s forces with invaluable intel. Operating in Hives throughout the galaxy, their bodies are suspended by countless life support tubes and drains, including a canopy of neural lines directly farming raw data to their brains.
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The following summary report is comprised of four major categories:
Hits, Misses, & Injuries by Round
ADP Inaccuracy by Round
Hits vs Misses by Position
ADP Inaccuracy by Position
A “Hit” is categorized by a player’s 2023 Underdog ADP aligning with their season finish within a particular threshold:
Over 65% of Underdog ADP (top 219 players) completely missed the mark.
More than 13% of the top 254 players missed 6 or more games due to injury.
The average discrepancy between a player’s Underdog ADP and their 2023 finish was 19.23 places. In other words, on average the top 219 players were drafted 19 spots early/late.
The hit rate surpassed 50% in only 3/21 rounds.
The poorest drafted position in 2023 was WR. They were on average drafted two rounds early.
The poorest round came at the end of the draft, where the average 18th-round player was drafted 23.79 spots early/late. WRs in this range were drafted an average of 38.04 spots late/early.
Those who fought in last year’s crusade were subjected to a cruel existence, where only a third of the Imperium’s forces survived the evil Hordes. Will this intelligence prove worthy of the Council’s plans for the upcoming campaign? In a universe of doom, can there be progress or understanding?
Abandon Hope
The Data Harvesters are one side of a double-edged sword for the Emperor. Steering the Imperium’s politics is the Scouting Conclave. As a royal priesthood gifted in prophecy, they discern the paths to victory and counsel the Emperor on galactic dangers. Their Tabernacles travel as bastions across the stars, spreading the Emperor’s propaganda and instilling fanaticism throughout the Legion’s ranks. In the darkness of their innermost shrines, the clerics keep vigil as they profess the Imperatoris Sacramenta - The Emperor’s Sacraments. By unrelenting faith, the Emperor’s Legions endure the gods’ testing and bear the sacred burdens.
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But many have strayed from the path and fallen into foul corruption. Their purpose has become vile, their strength lecherous, and their souls damned. To protect the Emperor’s Legions, the Conclave warns of divine judgment across the Imperium:
Woe to those who scorn the Elite QB and WR
Woe to those who place too much faith in unknown assets
Woe to those who align themselves with vile offenses
Woe to those who chase after backups or low-ceiling players
Many QBs and RBs will have their days cut short, and the Imperium will be thrown into darkness
Therefore, pursue the elite QB duo, do not doubt a third QB, stand firm in the elite WR trio, consecrate all-powerful offenses, and devote yourself entirely to alphas
11th Place Finish - Too many swings at unknown assets
The Cursed Sector
Far from the light of the Emperor, a distress signal is received from the desolate system Mortuus Zona - The Dead Zone. In a sector plagued by unpredictable WoRP surges and anomalies beyond comprehension, it is a haven for the apostate, the demonic, and the degenerate. Vast and deadly, Imperium forces are completely cut off from any hope of aid in the grim dark. The distress signal’s origin is a derelict Tabernacle, likely caught in the maelstrom of a WoRP surge. Hidden aboard the vessel exists the most powerful weapon in the Legion’s arsenal, developed by the Furnace Brotherhood.
An ancient guild of master craftsmen, the Brotherhood supplies the imperial war machine with its most deadly tools. Operating in the remotest sectors of the galaxy, their work often remains a terrible secret. This includes a new age of WoRP Technology, powerful enough to harness the energy of surges and convert them into limitless powerplants for machinery and devastating weaponry against any threat. Without this technology, the nests of the Horde would continue to fester unchecked, and eventually spill into the Imperium with the force of a tidal wave.
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Utilizing WoRP Tech, we can gather:
Outside of the RB #1, WRs rule the galaxy by a significant margin
The Top 4 QBs overshadow TEs before trading blows for the rest of the draft
The Call
The path to glory is wrought with blood and toil. Each misstep magnified a thousandfold in the Tournament of Mania. In the arena of chaos, whispers of doubt will echo, the aroma of death will choke, the weight of despair will crush, and the eyes of annihilation will forever follow. These enemies are no foes to be conquered in a distant world but rather the demons that wreak havoc within ourselves. Vanquish the nemesis within, quiet their mockery, ready yourself for war, and answer the call to VICTORY!
instrumentum
Image created by T-Rock using Midjourney. Perfected by ATM
This series is dedicated to my brother Malik, the Hellhound Primarch
Cody’s 2024 SEC Football Preseason All-Conference Team
Cody Carpentier’s Official 2024 SEC Football Preseason All-Conference Ballot
QB1 (Team 1) - Jalen Milroe, Alabama
QB2 (Team 2) - Quinn Ewers, Texas
RB1 (Team 1) - Trevor Etienne, Georgia
RB2 (Team 1) - Jaydon Blue, Texas
RB3 (Team 2) - Josh Williams, LSU
RB4 (Team 2) - Raheim Sanders, Arkansas
WR1 (Team 1) - Luther Burden III, Missouri
WR2 (Team 1) - Deion Burks, Oklahoma
WR3 (Team 2) - Tre Harris, Ole Miss
WR4 (Team 2) - Cam Coleman, Auburn
HM - Isaiah Bond, Texas HM - Barion Brown, Kentucky
TE1(Team 1) - Mason Taylor, LSU
TE2 (Team 2) - Oscar Delp, Georgia
G/T (Team 1) - Will Campbell, LSU
G/T (Team 1) - Kelvin Banks Jr., Texas
G/T (Team 1) - Kadyn Proctor, Alabama
G/T (Team 1) - Tyler Booker, Alabama
C (Team 1) - Parker Brailsford, Alabama
DL (Team 1) - Deone Walker, Kentucky
DL (Team 1) - James Pearce Jr., Tennessee
DL (Team 1) - Alfred Collins, Texas
DL (Team 1) - Walter Nolen, Ole Miss
LB (Team 1) - Anthony Hill Jr., Texas
LB (Team 1) - Harold Perkins, LSU
LB (Team 1) - Mykel Williams, Georgia*
LB (Team 1) - Debo Williams, South Carolina*
DB (Team 1) - Billy Bowman, Oklahoma
DB (Team 1) - Malaki Starks, Georgia
DB (Team 1) - Malachi Moore, Alabama
DB (Team 1) - Jahdae Barron, Texas
PK (Team 1) - Bert Auburn, Texas
P (Team 1) - Kai Kroeger, South Carolina
Returner (Team 1) - Zavion Thomas, LSU
KOS (Team 1) - Trey Smack, Florida
LS (Team 1) - Lance St. Louis, Texas
The Man Comes Around
Joe’s head jerked back and forth as he took in sharp breaths. His eyes began to well up as he fearfully checked his surroundings.
“Not an easy thing to have the curtain pulled back. At least you made it back, not everyone does.” Listin said patting Joe on the back. “Tell me, how many did you see? One? Two of them?”
“What?! Umm, I saw five,” Joe said, gathering his breath. “Maybe six. I don’t know what the last thing I saw was.”
Listin’s bloodshot eyes looked at Joe inquisitively, “Really?” He took a swig of his beer, flexing his temples and gritting his teeth. “Joe, help me with something. If I wanted to create Dynasty Startup Rankings for the 2024 season, how would YOU PERSONALLY go about that?”
2024 Dynasty Startup Rankings, SF
Chapter 10
Joe’s head jerked back and forth as he took in sharp breaths. His eyes began to well up as he fearfully checked his surroundings.
“Not an easy thing to have the curtain pulled back. At least you made it back, not everyone does.” Listin said patting Joe on the back. “Tell me, how many did you see? One? Two of them?”
“What?! Umm, I saw five,” Joe said, gathering his breath. “Maybe six. I don’t know what the last thing I saw was.”
Listin’s bloodshot eyes looked at Joe inquisitively, “Really?” He took a swig of his beer, flexing his temples and gritting his teeth. “Joe, help me with something. If I wanted to create Dynasty Startup Rankings for the 2024 season, how would YOU PERSONALLY go about that?”
“Well, I put quite a lot into my rankings,” Joe said with apprehension.
“Like what?” Listin said sharply.
“I like to look at everything. I start with the latest consensus startup ADP as a baseline, and from there I add in the latest AlphaDog rankings along with production results from the previous season. A lot of dynasty players exclude redraft rankings but I think production is the biggest reason why rankings change. I assign all the players tiers and use various tie-breakers,” Joe said looking at the crowd around him. “I use a lot of different metrics from the previous season and I take pride in my rookie research. I came across two individuals in my history books called the Bootleggers, who also took a very thorough approach,” Joe said eagerly. “They use a metric called Quarterback Support I found to be very intriguing -”
“Is that all!?” Listin laughed.
“Well, there’s one more thing,” Joe said unzipping his backpack. Everyone around Joe stared intently at the WoRP helmet.
“You are just full of surprises, aren’t ya Joe?” Listin said nodding. Joe looked at Mary’s worried expression. He suddenly realized there was no turning back now.
“Well don’t be shyyyyy! NOT NOW!! Things are getting good!” Listin elated.
Joe’s hands instinctively slid the headgear on and flipped the visor down. Reflections of the bonfire danced across the WoRP device’s finish, setting Joe’s head and face aflame.
“If I had to guess, people elevated Stroud too much after his historic rookie campaign.” Joe began. “An amazing passer, no doubt, but I would rather bet on QBs with rushing upside.”
“I project Anthony Richardson to join the likes of Allen, Hurts, and Lamar as elite Konami QBs in 2024. Injury risk is a concern, but his talent and team situation are worth the risk. Despite his slight frame, I’m also high on Jayden Daniel’s duel talents.
Franchises that consistently win and roster some of the best playmakers in the league are why I’m higher on Dak, Purdy, & Goff.
Managers will be desperately high on players like Garrett Wilson & Drake London, but I prefer Aiyuk, Nico & Pittman. Unless you're the next Justin Jefferson or Marvin Harrison Jr., the situation and multi-year stability between the receiver, the QB, the coaches, and the rest of the team will always trump any short-lived opportunity.
“Well come on now!!! Let’s give Joe a round of applause!!!” Listin shouted. The clanking of crude armor and clapping echoed loudly through the darkness, penetrating deep into Joe’s psyche.
“I do take issue with just one thing though,” Listin interrupted. “Why spend so much TIME on these rankings if the best you can hope for is to be twenty, maybe forty percent accurate with the help of D here?”
Joe sat silent, not knowing what to say.
“Shouldn't the priority be making the best selections, not the best rankings Joe?” Listin asked.
Taking a deep breath, Joe nodded and said “I don't have to be anywhere close to a hundred percent accurate. Even D is limited in his power. I just need to be better than everyone else. My rankings help me make the best selections.”
There was a deafening silence. Opening his mouth and cocking his jaw to the side, Listin smiled saying “Fair enough.”
Listin extended his hand towards Joe and pulled him from the ground. “Let’s go have a chat,” he said, putting his arm around Joe. The light from the campfire began to fade and soon all Joe could perceive was the sound of sand giving way under his feat.
“So, your Silo prohibits using content from other channels?” Listin inquired.
“We have certain textbooks, but there is a bunch of stuff we're not even allowed to read, let alone use. My dad says outside sources aren't true, which was the main thing he fought against in the war.”
“Like stuff from the surface?”
“Ya.”
“No chance to decide for yourself, huh?”
Joe kept his head, trying his best to discern the ground in the bright moonlight. The faint sound of roaring and crashing began to fill the air. Listin led Joe to the crest of a high dune before ultimately resting down in the sand. And there it was, a black ocean sprawling towards an infinite horizon. The violent churning of the waves played on an endless loop for Joe.
“Are you obsessive Joe? Do you obsess over things?” Listin asked.
“Ya. A lot of what I want seems like things I’ll never get.”
“My whole life, I felt like I was enlisted in a war against failure or mediocrity, called to fight for others. But the more I figure things out, the less plugged in I want to be with others,” Listin professed.
Joe looked at Listin and asked, “What about your people?”
“Most people will never change,” Listin exhaled. “You can guide them to still waters and green pastures, but it’s never enough. They never learn to lead themselves.”
“What about your family?”
The air became heavy around Listin. “Not everyone makes it, Joe,” he finally said. “There are a lot of things you can’t control. I couldn't stay where I was, around my father. But you can always learn, little by little.”
“But meeting you Joe has given me hope,” Listin said, managing a smile. “I believe we share the same calling. You pour a lot into your work. Don't waste your passion on people who don't want to listen. But I'll listen, Joe. And if I listen, many others will too,” Listin said looking at Joe. “What do you say? Willing to start making your own choices?” he said, extending his hand towards Joe.
“Ya,” Joe said, shaking Listin's hand. “Why the hell not.”
Listin stood up and shook the dust from his coat. “You can tell me all about your silo on the way back!” he said, putting his hand on Joe's shoulder.
Mary was surprised that Joe was smiling when he returned with Listin.
“Joe, you can stay here for a little while with Mary. Lukos and I don't want to keep our friends waiting.”
Listin, Lukos, and the entire gang mounted their motorcycles and left as quickly as they came. Once again, Mary and Joe were alone in the cold dark wasteland.
Chapter 11
The large blunt blade struggled its way through the apple’s flesh. Jim rolled over in his bed and squinted at the silhouette sitting at his desk. The fruit snapped under the shadowy figure’s bite.
“Do you have any idea how long it's been since I had fresh fruit?” Lukos asked with his mouth full.
“Lukos?” Jim said, sitting up in bed. “How did you -”
“Your front door was open. Don't worry, Joe is fine,” said Lukos.
“Is that my -”
“Still keeping your knife under your mattress?” Lukos said as he continued to slice up the apple. “Living in a bunker doesn’t make you feel safe?”
“Clearly not,” Jim replied.
“You look older Jim. You should get some sun.”
“I never thought I would see you again,” Jim said.
“That’s typically what happens after people are banished,” Lukos said sarcastically.
“I didn't mean for things to turn out the way they did Perro.”
Lukos lowered his head, sifting his hair through his hand. “You threw me out to the wolves Jim. You let the surface eviscerate me while you hid down here… safe. Do you know what that feels like? People out there are stripped of their goodness, their humanity. Their hope. Is that the world you envisioned for everyone? For your son?” he said tightening his grip on the knife’s handle.
“I only wanted to help people Lukos. I didn’t know it would lead to this fallout.”
Lukos shook his head and said, “You never wanted to help people Jim, you just wanted recognition for it. From the looks of it, you're still waiting.”
“What happens now?” Jim asked.
Lukos took his time before finally answering, “I'm going to give you what you always wanted - an opportunity.”
Chapter 12
Tim raised the tequila shot to his lips and slapped it on the wooden bar. The sound echoed through the lifeless saloon. The old bartender filled his glass with the familiar transparent spirit. The wooden stool groaned as the Magistrate shifted his weight towards the portly man sitting beside him.
“So, what have you been hearing?” Tim asked.
“Same hellscape, different day,” the man replied.
“Mashed potatoes yesterday, mashed potatoes today,” Tim added. “What about the competition? I've seen a pretty sizeable uptick in their activity lately. Are they collaborating?”
“Sort of, but, not exactly,” the man winced as he took a sip from his glass.
“Well, what in the Sam-fuckin-Hill does that mean Carl?” Tim said irritated.
“There's a new player,” Carl paused to dab the sweat from his forehead with a handkerchief. “He's been investing heavy resources into these other channels.”
“What? Why?! Those places were floundering!” Tim exclaimed.
“Not anymore. Their content, views, and division members have tripled over the last month,” he said with a heavy breath.
“Well, how in the hell am I supposed to move in on these channels now?!” Tim said in disbelief. “Who the hell is this asshole!?”
“He keeps himself pretty hidden. Not much to go off of,” Carl replied.
“That doesn't help Carl! I'm paying you WoRP edges for your services!” Tim shouted waving his hands.
Carl frowned before turning forward in his stool.
“Well, I don't care who this guy is! If he thinks he can beat me to the punch then I want this fucker dead!!!” Tim said slamming his hand on the bar and spilling his tequila shot. “Set up a meeting with the bounty hunters!” he said facing Carl.
Carl had his head down, doing his best to distance himself from the Magistrate’s outrage. He quickly pulled out a credit from his pants pocket and threw it on the bar before briskly walking through the exit.
“It may be difficult to land a bounty hunter,” a voice said behind Tim. “I'm hoarding them all,” the figure said slowly lowering his drink to the counter.
“Where in the hell did you come from?!” Tim said flabbergasted.
“From roaming throughout the earth, going back and forth on it,” the man smiled at Tim. He was wearing a coal-black bolero with an enlarged brim, dwarfing Tim’s cowboy hat. His eyes were bloody.
“Now, I understand there may be a lot of mystery surrounding who I am and how I operate. Well, here I am, in the flesh,” Listin said pivoting towards Tim. “You'll have to forgive my appearance; we do not enjoy the same accommodations on the surface as you do,” he said waving over the bartender for another round.
“The investor I presume?” Tim asked.
“I’m a creator. I have numerous channels spread across the wasteland, both high and low. Many of my followers belong to a division, not too dissimilar from yours.”
“How would you know what my division is like?!” Tim interjected.
“I know a lot, Tim. I know you’re tired of leading, tired of waiting on your brother to get his shit together. But most of all, I know you're desperate for growth,” Listin said sternly. “I know all too well Magistrate.”
“You think you know me?!”
“I know that deep down, the bunker mentality doesn’t suit you. You’re a conqueror Tim. Your very nature cannot be confined to a silo after you’ve already established your rule. You’ll always strive for more.”
“What do you want?” Tim asked incredulously.
“I want to help you and your channel. Your WoRP device is an ocean of oil, Tim. I’m your oilman.”
“Are you kidding me?!”
“Your WoRP device is useless unless it goes on heads,” Listin said bowing his oversized hat. “That makes the heads the most valuable commodity, not the tool itself. You’ve been cut off from the outside world for too long and you haven’t gotten with the times. Regardless of whether it's loyal division members, degenerate gamblers, or even mutants, it would be foolish to withhold the largest sectors in the fantasy space from your market share.”
“And how would we accomplish that?” Tim asked.
“Mass-produce the WoRP device. You’ve kept Excalibur in its sheath by limiting yourself to only the dynasty community. You should be using it to conquer the entire fantasy planet. Redraft, DFS, AlphaDog. Billions clamoring for their own WoRP device so they all can win their leagues and trophies.”
“But they all can’t be winners,” Tim countered.
“No, but you’ll win. Isn’t that what matters?” Listin answered.
“Where I’m from, if we hear a story too good to be true, it ain’t. What do you want in return?”
“Access to your Silo. If I’m going to back this venture, I make it my business to oversee my people and product. It’s not a secret that your viewership isn’t where you want it to be. But that’s ok because outside of production, I’m going to offer you a presence and likeability that will be far more influential than a brand built on stale knowledge or cold technology. I’ll provide you with the best editors, the best content, and a wider audience. You’ll have more resources than you know what to do with. I assure you that if we can mass produce the WoRP Device, your Silo will not only survive, it will thrive.”
“You got the devil in you boy.”
“Well now that you know who you are dealing with, let me play my part and offer you the deal of a lifetime. What do you say?” he said extending his hand.
Tim looked long and hard at Listin’s hand. At that moment, the clock on the wall chimed loudly three times. Each toll rang progressively sharper and deeper in Tim’s mind. “I was always taught that nothing good ever happened after midnight.” Tim grasped Listin’s hand and sealed the deal.
“Listin Roy, at your service,” he said shaking Tim’s hand. “Now let’s drink to your campaign.”
Chapter 13
Joe slowly slipped through the opening he left in his home’s entrance, trying his best not to wake his father. Once inside, he immediately noticed the familiar glow of his modest television casting shadows throughout the living room. Sitting in front of it was a familiar silhouette, remaining motionless as it loosely held a crystal glass full of Scotch next to a nearly empty bottle.
“Are you going to tell me where you have been?” Jim finally said. “Or do you think I don’t know?”
The graveness in his father’s voice was alarming. Joe glimpsed flashes of his father’s disheveled appearance from the flickering light of the TV. He cautiously approached the couch.
“I’m leaving Dad. I’ve been given an opportunity to do what I’ve always wanted.”
“To do what?!” Jim said condescendingly. The smell of liquor burned Joe’s nostrils, keeping him at a distance.
“To help the people who need it the most. Out there,” Joe replied.
“Why?!”
“It's the right thing to do. It’s what you taught me.”
“No!” Jim barked. “I need you here Joe. I’m becoming Co-Magistrate and there’s a lot of change coming. Your duty is here. You can help the people here.”
“I don’t belong here.”
Joe took a long, agitating sip from his glass, seemingly ignoring his son.
“You’re making a huge mistake,” Jim said as the breath of his voice slowly leaked out. “You’re going to fail.”
“I can’t stay here,” Joe said clenching his fists. “I don’t want to be like you!”
“If you have something to say, then be a man! Say it for yourself!”
Joe’s throat was tight and his breathing was absent. “If I don’t do this, then I don’t know what I’ll do.”
“You’re betraying me,” Jim said spitefully. “You’re betraying your mother.”
“What?”
“Your mother didn’t listen to me and now she’s dead! I never wanted you! You were an inconvenience,” Jim said slowly. “You took her away from me and I got stuck with you. You’re nothing like me because I’m not your father…”
Joe’s attention deflected towards the action on the black and white screen. The ball is snapped and the nameless quarterback fakes a handoff to his running back. The passer stands tall in the pocket, waiting for one of his receivers to break loose of their defenders. The QB throws a short pass to his tight end and is immediately tackled. The play lasted less than three seconds.
“Do you understand what I just said?” Jim continued. “You’re not mine, you’re someone else’s. You’re an ORPHAN. An orphan that no one else wanted and I felt sorry for. You should have left seventeen years ago.”
Joe remained stationary as he watched the offense leave the field and the punting team quickly set up to kick the ball away. With the ball in the air, Joe silently entered his room and placed his hamster in a small carrier. His mind was blank as he gathered what little he had and walked through the front hatch. Jim never once looked at Joe. His gaze was fixed on the screen. It wasn’t until the steel door slammed shut that Jim looked over at the vacant space beside him. Flashbacks began to fill his mind of watching games with Joe, late at night, where it felt like they were the only people left on earth to enjoy the spectacle.
Mary waited close by as Joe emerged from the Silo hatch. He did his best to hide the reaction on his face and walked quickly in front of her.
“How did it go?” Mary asked. Joe continued to walk, pretending like he didn’t hear her. “Are you ok?”
“Things didn’t go that well,” Joe finally admitted.
“I’m sorry,” Mary said. “Family can be tough.”
Family? I don’t know what that means anymore. It’s gone now.
Joe quickly tried to wipe his face hoping Mary wouldn’t see.
“I feel very alone. I’ve felt this way my whole Mary. And I feel like it will never get better. That I don’t matter,” Joe confessed.
A hand gently touched Joe, causing him to stop. “You’re not alone Joe,” she said slowly squeezing his shoulder. “These thoughts you’re having…they’re lies. Lies meant to destroy us, so the world has one less good person in it. The person who cares the most gets hurt the most.”
“It’s really hard Mary.”
“I know, but we have to keep fighting. You’re having a dark day. But there are going to be really good ones too.”
Joe stopped in front of Mary’s motorcycle where she asked, “Where do you want to go?”
“Let’s get the hell out of here,” he replied.
Epilogue
Daylight filtered through the window, illuminating the exposed gears and levers. Peering through the magnified lens of the lomb, the man carefully tightened the screw of the polished metal wheel. In great anticipation, he wound the crown of his device, coiling up the mainspring.
“Just a tiny, bit, mo-”
The spring snapped, sending the metal part flying into an unknown oblivion.
“Fuck.”
“HA! You messed it up again, didn’t ya!?” A voice cracked from the other side of the room.
“Shut up! I’m borrowing this!” the man replied as he snatched a tool from the desk behind him.
“NO! I need that for my control! Don’t mess with that!” the voice protested.
“I’ll take a controlled shit on your experiment if you keep it up.”
“You can’t control anything, including your shi-”
A loud knock echoed throughout the workshop and lab. Both men lifted their heads and stared at one another momentarily.
“That would be the door.”
“I know it’s the door. Go get it!”
“No, you get it! I’m busy.”
“What if they are here to kill me?”
“HA! Good!”
“You asshole,” he said getting up from his desk. The man opened the door and saw a young man wearing a yellow and green hat with a red-headed girl standing behind him.
“Who is it?!” a voice shouted from the other side of the room.
“It's a guy, a girl, and a hamster!” the man in the doorway replied
“Excuse me, is this where the Tinkerer and the Scientist live?” asked Joe.
The Dossier
Some Are Born To Endless Night
Joe covered his face first with a blanket, then a pillow, but no matter how hard he tried, he could not fall asleep. Turning over in bed, he stared at the soft pink glow that emanated from Sauron’s night light. The wheel squeaked as the hamster ran round and round in his cardio contraption. No matter what Joe did, Mary was all he thought about.
Startup ADP Retention Vs. Expert Rankings
Chapter 7
Joe covered his face first with a blanket, then a pillow, but no matter how hard he tried, he could not fall asleep. Turning over in bed, he stared at the soft pink glow that emanated from Sauron’s night light. The wheel squeaked as the hamster ran round and round in his cardio contraption. No matter what Joe did, Mary was all he thought about.
It was nearly midnight when Joe heard the rattle of his pipe. BAM! The rock skipped off Joe’s forehead and into his covers. It simply read “Meet now!” Quickly grabbing his ball cap and backpack, he squeezed through the front hatch of his home to not alert his sleeping father. Carefully retracing his classmates' path when they snuck off to party, Joe reached the narrow passageway to the surface. Grabbing the first rung, he slowly made his way up the 40-foot ascent. Joe’s hands shook nervously as he spun open the hatch.
The high-pitched howl of the wasteland wind ripped the door from Joe’s hand and he was choked with dust. He quickly closed the hatch disguised as an overgrown bush and tied a strip of cloth to one of its branches. Scanning the horizon he saw a light flickering in the distance of the valley and set off towards it.
A slender figure stood up and slowly walked towards Joe, its silhouette blurred by the brilliance of the bonfire.
“Joe?!” said the figure.
“Mary?”
“You made it!” she exclaimed.
There was a silence before Joe finally reached into his bag saying, “So, I brought what you asked for.”
“The Win-Now ADP!? Wow, thank you!” said Mary. “This is going to be so helpful, Joe. There’s so much noise here on the surface, it can be tough to know which way to go.” Her infernal red hair seemed as bright as the fire they stood beside, further accentuated by her oxblood jacket.
Joe sat and watched the raging campfire, following the embers as they disappeared into the night sky.
“Pretty amazing, huh?” she said. “It can be brutal for some but I love adventuring out here. Free from any cares… outside of heat stroke and giant scorpions.”
“Ya, it's amazing,” he replied. The flames glimmered in her large eyes, one emerald, the other aquamarine.
“Are you a-”
“Mutant!? Nope. No awful disease or cool powers for me. Everyone thought the same growing up but I just have some crazy eyes is all.”
“Well, that’s cool,” Joe said awkwardly. “So, what are your plans, Mary?” he asked.
“Make enough winnings to get the hell out of here. A long time ago, my dad made some bad bets on Trey Lance and Justin Fields that he’s been trying to pay off since.”
“Damn, that sucks.”
“It’s life. Happens all the time,” Mary shrugged. “But now you’re here to help us out,” she said smiling.
“Whatever I can do to help,” Joe nodded.
Mary stood up to throw more logs on the fire. “That makes me very happy to hear. There’s not a lot of people like yourself up here. Perhaps we can make this a regular thing?”
“What do you mean?” Joe inquired.
“I need your help, Joe. I know I could make it far in the AlphaDog tournament with you - over ten billion credits in prizes. We could split whatever winnings we get. What do you say? Can you help me?”
No girl has ever been interested in me before. Is this what it feels like? I’m not sure.
“Sure, what the hell. I’ll help you,” Joe agreed.
“Thank you,” Mary said rubbing Joe’s back.
Joe sat contently beside Mary listening to the wood snap and splinter from the heat of the fire. He didn’t think to ask her where she was from, discuss his favorite hobbies, or imagine how they would spend the tournament prize money. All Joe could think about was how different the surface was from the Silo. Coming from a place that breathed with electricity and incessant stimulation, he didn’t realize how weary his mind had become until it was finally unplugged. The only thing left for Joe to ponder was what would happen next.
“Oh, I should tell you, Joe, there’s-” Mary was interrupted by approaching footsteps. Joe looked up to see a man carrying dead branches. He was wearing a heavy-duty work coat and a plaid green undershirt. He had a tired face with a salt and peppered beard and hair. The firewood snapped as the man let it fall beside him.
The man looked at Mary and asked, “Who’s this?”
Chapter 8
The man’s brow coiled around his eyes as he inspected Joe.
“Lukos! This is my friend, Joe! He’s the one I told you about from the Silo!” Mary interjected.
“Nice to meet you,” Joe said extending his hand toward the man.
Lukos’ glare darted from Joe to Mary. “Hm,” Lukos said, ignoring Joe’s gesture.
“Here Joe! Have a drink with us,” Mary said kindly. Joe cautiously sat down as she removed three beers from a nearby cooler.
First, I’m on the surface. Now, I’m having a beer with degenerates! Holy shit!
The can exploded with foam into Joe’s face. Lukos shook his head slowly.
“Whoopsies!” Mary laughed.
“Joe is gonna be our secret weapon for the tourney Lukos!” Mary exclaimed.
“Is that so?” Lukos said uninterested.
“Yeah, I have a good feeling that if we can think like the geriatrics who always win, and can look back to when they played, it will give us a huge leg up with data like this,” Mary said raising the ADP data.
“You’re still pursuing the Hindsight Strategy, huh?” Lukos asked. “Sounds like you both have it figured out.”
Lukos took a large swig of beer. “That Startup ADP, what year did you say it was from?”
“2024,” Joe replied.
“2024,” Lukos nodded belching. “Well, here’s the thing about the world of Dynasty. It’s all about staying power, value retention, shit like that. No one wants to draft Deshaun Watson in the 2nd round of 2023 if he’s going to be a 7th rounder in 2024, do they?
Lukos leaned forward, “Let’s say you compared the first 12 rounds of Startup ADP from 2023 and 2024, and let’s also say that you accounted for a margin of error that increased every round. Do you have any idea how much turnover there is in ADP from year to year, even with the room for error?!”
“Sure, you may be safe in the first round with it having the best ADP Retention at 50%, followed by the second round at 41.67%, but after that, there’s a sharp decline in ADP retention (fluctuating between 25 - 0%).
RBs had the best ADP retention amongst all positions at a meager 26.82%, which is ironic given the market.
TEs, WRs, & QBs all experienced ADP Turnover at +81%.
In total, only 20.83% of all players in the first 12 rounds of Consensus Startup ADP retained their standing from 2023 to 2024. There’s simply no consistency.”
“How much of that ADP turnover is attributed to making room for incoming rookies?” Joe interjected.
“Well, there were 20 rookies in the first 12 rounds of the 2023 ADP (13.89%) and 24 rookies in the 2024 ADP (16.67%), but we all know how good of bets rookies are, don’t we? And look how many we put at the top of startups.” Lukos said shaking his head.
“Up here, your fancy analytics can only take you so far against five hundred million contestants?” Lukos said slowly. “That’s the sad part for most dynasty players - y’all think too long-term. It takes them years to discover what they could have figured out in just one year of Re-Draft… you can’t prepare for chaos.”
After a long pause, Joe said, “That may be the case for y’all up here, but I doubt anyone in the tournament has this.” Joe swung around his backpack and pulled out a large, chrome object.
Lukos stared intently at the helmet. “Joe… who runs your channel?” he said with strain.
“My Uncle Tim is the Magistrate. He’s brothers with my dad, James.” Joe replied.
Lukos labored but eventually managed a stiff nod before looking away. “Before the war, being a degenerate was a badge of honor,” Lukos began. “I remember being around your age when I got invited to my first league. I was a nobody before that. Lucky me, I won it my first year! But the one thing they don’t tell you kid… winning is a painful addiction. Everything else takes a backseat before you lose it all. Friends, family. The only thing that matters is being at the top. Do yourself a favor kid, go back to where you came from. You have no idea what people are capable of out here when winning is survival,” Lukos said standing up. He threw down his empty beer can and crushed it swiftly under his boot. “I’m gonna take a leak. When I get back, I hope you’re gone. Say goodbye to your friend Mary,” he said, turning away. Before Joe or Mary could say anything, he was gone in the dark.
Chapter 9
Joe remained beside Mary, watching her countenance slowly begin to dim.
“I’m sorry Joe,” she said. “I’m so freaking stupid. I didn’t mean for this to happen. I was desperate and made the same mistake I always do - I got my hopes up and embarrassed myself, per usual.”
“I’ll help you, Mary,” Joe said, offering her a smile.
Mary laughed awkwardly before composing herself enough to ask “Why Joe?”
“I told you I would and I’m a man of my word. I’m tired of people telling me what I can and cannot do. But this is no one else’s business. Don’t worry, I want to do this.”
Mary stared at Joe perplexed before breathing out deeply. “You sure are something, Joe. Thank you.”
“Eh, it's nothing. Let me just get another beer and then I’ll get out of here.” Maybe the second one won’t taste like shit.
As Mary reached into the cooler, a mechanical humming began to fill the valley. The roar of engines grew louder until Joe and Mary were surrounded by the whirling and screeching of throttle and exhaust.
Lukos ran back to the fire, “What is he still doing here Mary?!” He whispered anxiously. The engines died and an eery silence lingered for a moment. The air was abruptly filled with high-pitched howling and yelping that a canine would make. The nocturnal call sunk deeply into Joe’s spine, raising the hairs on his arms and neck. “Fuck, this isn’t good,” Lukos said scrambling. He grabbed Mary and sat her next to Joe. “Don’t worry, just be cool,” Lukos said discreetly.
The sound of shifting sanding intensified until the bonfire illuminated what appeared to be a hundred faces. The sea of people parted to make way for one figure that approached slowly with its hands behind its back.
“Tyger! Tyger! Burning bright, in the forests of the night. What immortal hand or eye, could frame thy fearful symmetry?” the figure spoke. The creases of his black leather trench coat rubbed together as he bent down to look at Joe. Long raven hair disappeared into an oversized standup collar. His pale blue eyes were crowded with busted blood vessels, resembling a dead addict’s final moments. Mary and Lukos sat silently with their heads down.
“Where did you blow in from Toto?” the man said tugging at Joe’s clothes and tipping his cap. “Oh I’m sorry, where are my manners?! My name is Listin, Listin Roy,” he said extending his hand towards Joe.
“I’m Joe,” he said shaking Listin’s hand.
“Pleased to meet you, Joe. Hopefully, we didn’t miss out on too much. Say, Mary, is that beer in your hand taken?”
Mary shook her head, “No, Listin, you can have it.”
“You didn’t shake it, did ya?” he said pausing his outreached hand. Mary became petrified. “I’m just fucking with ya, Mary,” Listin laughed.
“Now, just how long have you known these two here?” Listin inquired.
“We just met tonight,” Joe replied.
“How interesting. Well, since we’re all getting to know each other, tell me about yourself, Joe.”
Joe wavered back and forth on what to say. “I’m a dynasty student.”
Listin shifted his body towards Lukos, “What a small wasteland! Lukos and I used to be into dynasty ourselves,” he said with a wide grin. “Don’t be shy, what’s your favorite subject?”
“Historical Data and Trading Philosophy.”
Listin began wagging his finger towards Joe, “That’s funny you should say that because I also appreciate the art of taking things from other people,” he said excitedly. “How fortuitous that we would cross paths tonight. But Joe, I just have to ask, ‘What in the HELL are you doing here?’”
Joe looked at Mary before looking back toward Listin, “I’m just wanting to get out there and share what I know to help people.”
Listin snapped his fingers and nodded, “I’m not gonna lie, most other people I would laugh at for saying something like that, but I can tell you’re being genuine. That takes guts. All these people around you were once like sheep without a shepherd. In this cruel world, do you know what true power is? It’s not knowledge, it’s not tools, it’s not credits. It’s strength in numbers. But not everyone can lead Joe, only a few have the vision. Do you have that same vision, Joe?”
Joe looked into the faces of the crowd around him as he contemplated. Each one sporting an assortment of tattered biker garb, animal skins, and punk hairstyles.
“I think so,” Joe finally answered.
Listin raised his beer to Joe, but paused halfway, “I want to believe you Joe, but I have to make sure. Tell me, Joe… are you a fan of ghost stories?”
Joe sat bewildered.
“It’s my favorite thing to do around a fire on nights like tonight, and lucky for you, I know someone who tells the scariest stories!” Listin said delighted.
The crowd separated once more, but this time for something that Joe could hardly comprehend. Four giants of men walking in a square were each carrying the ends of two poles. Situated within these poles was an old man, slouched in an ornate chair and appearing to be asleep. The man had a long faded red beard, interwoven with golden rings and beads. His face and bald head were covered in runic tattoos. The masses began to stomp in unison and a haunting chorus of guttural chants and animal cries began to fill Joe’s ears.
Listin raised his finger to his mouth and a hush fell upon the circle. “Joe, have you ever heard of the Fantasy Professionals?”
Joe shook his head.
“Well, they were a brotherhood of individuals who were born with special giftings. Mutants actually. When the war broke out, their entire order was wiped out. Only D here managed to survive,” Listin said, putting his hand on the mutant’s shoulder. “Now, I’m sure that you are painfully aware that people are obsessed with the future. And despite our best efforts, our ability to project can be quite dreadful. But I’m here to tell you Joe that this man here can open doors that only God can open. He dreams of both the past and the future. He has the power to create startup rankings that are twice as accurate as Consensus ADP from year to year.
In 2023, D’s first-round ADP Retention was an astounding 75%, followed by the second round at 58.33% and the third round at 50%.
Outside of his 5th round (16.67%) and 11th round (25%) rankings, no other round dipped below 33.33%.
QBs had the best ADP retention amongst all positions at 46.67%, followed by TEs at 44.44%.
RBs & WRs experienced the most ADP Turnover at only 61%.
In total, 40.67% of D’s Startup Rankings in 2023 retained their standing in 2024, nearly doubling Consensus ADP (20.83%) and outperforming the masses at every position.
But don’t take my word for it, Joe,” Listin said as he rummaged through his coat. “See for yourself.”
Listin pulled out a round bronze object and began to wind it backward. It was a double-sided clock, each side engraved with the face of a man, one young and one old.
“D, let Joe come and see, to behold the beasts of 2023.”
Before Joe could react, the bells of the clock rang violently and the bearded man awoke from his slumber. His eyes were devoid of any white. It was as if two black holes were pulling Joe in, their gravity inescapable. Joe looked to Mary for help, catching only a glimpse of her crimson hair before D clapped his hands, and everything went dark. The fire was instantly extinguished and everyone from the bonfire had vanished. Joe could not see, touch, or taste anything in the nightmarish gulf. All he could hear was his panicked breathing.
Lost in the ether of the dream, a mist began to appear around Joe. He looked through the fog and saw the first beast. It was a cheetah that had been slowed in time, chasing prey across a great plain, but stumbling just before it could reach its prize. The second beast was a young bull with great horns, breathing fire from its nostrils. The third beast was a colt, immense and powerful. It was cut down before it could reach its stride. The fourth beast was a lamb with spiraling horns. It scaled a steep cliff and reached the summit. Then Joe saw in the final vision, a great obsidian throne with a stygian crown seated upon it. And from the heavens, a great raven descended upon the place of power. The creature’s flapping wings and croak began to echo louder and louder through the ruins of the pillared hall, resonating in Joe’s mind to a deafening pitch. It wasn’t until the noise rivaled the roar of the loudest coliseum that Joe saw out of the corner of his eye a gaunt and colorless hand on his shoulder. Before Joe could turn to see the rest of the figure, another hand began to wrap around Joe’s face-
CLAP!
Derek Brown’s 2024 Dynasty Rankings can found at:
https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/rankings/derek-brown.php?type=dynasty&position=OP
Consensus Startup ADP, SuperFlex (2023-2024)
The Dossier
A Change Is Gonna Come
“HI THERE!” the girl replied.
Her voice pushed Joe’s heart over a cliff. Oh shit, there’s a girl living in my pipe! SHE MUST BE TINY! Joe scrambled for a witty first impression, but his mind was as still as a statue, leaving his mouth open in no man’s land.
Comparing Dynasty ADP’s
Chapter 4
“HI THERE!” the girl replied.
Her voice pushed Joe’s heart over a cliff. Oh shit, there’s a girl living in my pipe! SHE MUST BE TINY! Joe scrambled for a witty first impression, but his mind was as still as a statue, leaving his mouth open in no man’s land.
“ARE YOU STILL THERE?!” the girl asked.
“Ya! Sorry, I’ve just never talked to anyone through a pipe before! I guess this is what telephones were like back in the day!” Joe laughed nervously. “What part of the Silo do you live in?”
“Silo?! I’m outside silly!”
Joe’s sailboat covers flew off his bed as he spasmed in disbelief! OH GOD, SHE’S A DEGENERATE SURFACE DWELLER! I shouldn’t be having this conversation!
“I’ve never talked to anyone from a Silo! So you’re part of a Channel with its own Division full of other members, right?! You must be super good at fantasy to be living down there, huh?!” she suggested.
“I know some things,” Joe said playing it cool. “Working on rankings now,” he said as he frantically filed through his father’s record collection. Let’s Bring It On Home Sam.
“OH REALLY!?” she asked. “Like AlphaDog rankings?”
“We don’t really use redraft ADP. We play dynasty, so it’s a lot different!” Joe said as he lit his Margarita Sunrise candle.
“How is it diff-”
“Well, the first thing you have to do is start off with Consensus Startup ADP!” Joe interrupted. “This is what tons of people are doing in their drafts, so it gives you a good idea of how players are actually valued.”
“Ya, I’m familiar with -”
“But it’s SUPER important in dynasty to focus on youth because they are the most valuable!” Joe continued. “We like QBs that are 28 or younger, WRs under 27, RBs on their rookie deals, so like 24 or younger, and TEs under 28.”
“Where do those ages come from?” the girl inquired.
Joe was caught off guard. “Oh, ummm, I think it’s because it takes a few years to build a good team, so you want younger players mainly,” Joe responded. “So ya, you may be reaching more on rookies and younger players five or six rounds ahead of their normal ADP, but as you can see with SuperFlex Startup ADPs, 27 of the first 36 players (75%) and 38 of the top 48 players (79%) have been in the league for four seasons or less! Most of the best players are super young!” Damn, great answer Joe!
“Huh, VERY interesting,” she replied. “Why don’t you just compete immediately instead of building for a year or two down the road?”
Joe sat up in his bed with a bewildered expression.
“I mean, I could win year one if I really wanted to but -”
“BUT, you’ve never gone ALL THE WAY, HAVE YOU?!”
Joe’s head dropped and his lips compressed into a flat frown. “I’m saving myself for the right team to come along is all,” he said sheepishly.
The pipe amplified the girl’s laughter into a thunderclap that shook Joe to the core. Damn, even the surface mutants don’t like me.
“That’s cute! I like that!!” she said. “Would you like to do me a favor?”
Joe’s interest was resurrected. Girls love it when you do stuff for them! “Sure,” he said cautiously.
“Could you create the same ADP chart, but for a WIN-NOW team based on season-long production!? I need it for a 12-team, 4-point passing TD, start 10, PPR league with a 1.5 PPR for TEs, please! You know, the most common league type. Oh and if you could do it for the 2024 offseason and include rookies with their final year of college production, that would be great! I love that Old World stuff! THANKS!!!”
“Yeah, ok.”
“Kay, BYE!”
“Wait, what’s your name and how do I get you this ADP?!” Joe desperately shouted.
“Oh, I’ll throw more trash down and you can meet me outside!” she replied “My name is Mary!”
“My name is Joe!”
There was no response. I think she heard me.
“She sounds nice, doesn’t she Sauron?” Joe said as the furry dark lord munched on pellets. I don’t know anyone who has ever left the Silo, it’s forbidden! I might as well be going to the Moon. But that makes me want to do it even more! Breaking the rules - FOR A GIRL! I have to make sure I do a good job with this special project for her.
I wonder how many of these rookies were productive in the pros?
There are so few players whose draft capital matches their production!
According to my history book’s notes, a lot of the productive QBs like Dak, Purdy, Goff, and Tua were discounted because they were viewed as products of their situations and not as talented as their elite peers. But that makes no sense! These players enjoyed long, productive careers in the league’s best environments! I guess people in the Old World were just as hard to please.
Damn, San Francisco must have had one hell of a squad! They have the most productive players in the top 156 with 9, followed by Buffalo with 7!
Joe went to his door, but before he could open it the hatch abruptly raised, and a large silhouette stood before him staring down with its arms crossed.
Chapter 5
“OH! HEY DAD!” Joe said surprised.
Jim scanned the room, “Motown, candles, and a white towel sprawled out on the bed. Looks like you were getting ready for a good time, huh? Where’s she at?”
“Where’s who at?” Joe said looking around his room.
“I heard you talking to a girl,” Jim said as he looked under his son’s bed and in his closet.
“OH! She’s not here! She’s on the surf - I MEAN, I DON’T WHAT YOU’RE TALKING ABOUT!” Joe said with a crooked smile.
Jim stood across Joe with his hands clenched, waiting for his son to crack.
TING, TING! The sound of the object broke the silence while it traveled down Joe’s pipe to his bed. They both remained motionless in their showdown. Jim turned around and picked up the rock. On it was crudely painted smiley face with “Thank You!” inscribed on the back.
“Oh YA! Dad, I’ve been meaning to tell ya, this pipe has been acting up,” Joe said anxiously.
Jim took a deep breath through his large nostrils, “You smell that?”
“Margarita Sunrise?” Joe replied with an exaggerated grin.
Jim squeezed the rock and slowly nodded, “Let’s go see your uncle.”
The Magistrate stood with his back towards Joe, admiring an oversized painting of a lion roaring after a fresh kill. Jim sat close to his brother, glaring at his son with disappointment. A long boardroom table separated Joe from his father and the Magistrate. Joe stared at the rock at the center of the table, which smiled back at him.
“Son, your daddy tells me that you’ve been fraternizing with some unsightly folk now,” the Magistrate opened. “This has gotten your old man all tore up, but don’t worry now, you're not in trouble, I just reckoned we could have a nice little chat is all,” he said as he turned around with his arms extended towards Joe.
The Magistrate was similar in build to his brother Jim but was completely different in appearance. He wore a cream-colored checkered suit contrasted by his charcoal cowboy hat. His face glimmered with sweat like the gold chain that peeked through his white dress shirt. But most striking was his long white hair which fell freely to his shoulders.
“When we were your age, we never dreamed of building a place like this,” the Magistrate continued as he strutted through the room. “Dynasty hadn’t come around now, so people watched football just for the mere enjoyment,” he said looking up. “I know it's hard to believe, but there were no real stakes. No deeper understanding of the game.” The Magistrate stood with his hands on his hips, shaking his head at the ground. “Your daddy and I fought bravely in the Content Wars, to bring us out of the Fallen World, and into the New One!” he said with a clenched fist. “Now, I reckon that you thought you were doing the right thing. You were just wanting to spread the good news!” the Magistrate said slapping his knee and looking back at his brother. “Be a light to the world! I appreciate the wonderful enthusiasm, but understand Joey… they ain’t ready. Instead, I got a better idea!” he said snapping his fingers. “What are you good at son?!” Tim said with a huge grin.
“Well, I like to think that I help the people of our Division,” Joe replied nodding. “Data Mining and contributing to the Analytics Association keeps me pretty active. I’m not very good at building tools or creating algorithms, but I feel like I make up for it with my love for football history, which I use to generate probabilities. I also participate in the Trading Philosophy Club, the Strategy Debate Team, and the Rookie Scouting Fraternity. My dad has taught me a lot as well,” Joe said raising his gaze towards his father.
“That’s swell son,” Tim said. “We are over 200 strong down here, so let’s stop with this galavanting and instead refocus those hormones into protecting all the beautiful things that your Uncle Timmy and your daddy have built down here! Now doesn’t that sound nice!?
“Your uncle is right Joe,” Jim said. “I need you down here and I need you to be better. You’re all I got.”
With his leg up on a chair the Magistrate leaned in and softly placed his hand on Joe’s shoulder. Tim whispered, “When was the last time you WoRPed son?”
“Oh, um, I don’t know, a day or two ago I guess,” Joe replied.
Tim motioned his way to a glass case in the corner of the room. He pulled out the helmet and made his way back to Joe. The entire room reflected off the mirror-like chrome finish of the headgear. Tim extended the Mind WoRPer towards Joe.
The Mind WoRPer was the crown jewel of their Silo and regarded as the most powerful tool that any Channel possessed. Created by the famed brothers known as the Tinkerer and the Scientist, the device could map out the most powerful players in a league, regardless of settings. With it, Tim was quickly elected Magistrate, leading his Division of members to unprecedented fantasy success.
“Now, let’s have some fun now! Would you do me the honor of running the WoRP using the same settings you were gonna do for that hussy?” Tim said.
With the press of a button, Joe lowered the helmet’s visor, and the world went pitch black. Only a pin-hole-sized light flickered in the distance for Joe. The light flashed and a library of data flooded into his mind.
“Well! Don’t keep us waiting now, tell us what you see sweetpea!” Tim exclaimed.
“I see a surprisingly low number of QBs at the top compared to all the other positions.
A lot more TEs than I expected.
I count only 17 rookies that broke into the top 156 best WoRP players (10.9%).
You could build a formidable team pretty easily by focusing on WRs and taking the value that falls to you with the older, less flashy players at the other positions.
It would be really hard to truly know the most valuable players in a league if you only went off points production and couldn’t WoRP.”
Joe flicked the visor up and gave the helmet back to the Magistrate.
“You got a bright future son,” Tim said slapping his nephew on the shoulder. “Don’t squander it.”
Chapter 6
Tim pulled out the crystal decanter of bourbon and pressed two glasses with his fingers. He wandered slowly to his brother and poured out the spirit. Jim swirled the glass, mesmerized by its maple-red tincture as it beamed in the low-lit study.
“Man, oh man! What a day!” Tim exhaled as he poured himself a glass and melted into his leather armchair. “I don’t what’s worse: not knowing what to do next or realizing you don’t have the mustard to get it done.” Jim sat silently tracing the exposed plumbing that snaked along the wall and ceiling. It must have taken forever to build this place.
“Look baby brother, I’ll get down to brass tacks here,” Tim continued. “We got a mighty fine thing going down here. Now we both agreed we would do this together and I know you had to take a break to do some soul-searching, and I’ve remained patient. But it’s time to move forward and show everyone the way. We need to go on the offensive, but I need your help. I got too many biscuits on my plate but not enough people to butter them. I want ya to join me as co-council leader.”
“I barely get enough time with Joe. I need to do a better job with him,” Jim replied. “I don’t know.”
“That’s precisely why I think this will be good for ya,” Tim countered. “We all go through tough times. Best way to dig out of them is to do what we do best. Get back to your old self!”
Jim looked up at his brother and took a large swig of his bourbon, “I don’t think I deserve it after what happened. Nothing is the same.”
“Oh for heaven’s sake, you’re STILL hung up on that! He made his choice, don’t follow him down into the potter’s ground. And good riddance as far as I’m concerned,” Tim belched. “Let’s look forward to the future and our legacy,” he said, raising his glass.
How can I be confident of the future if I regret the past? Jim took a long pause before his sight gravitated towards the corner of the room. There hung a photograph of himself with his brother. It was taken the day they opened the Silo. They were both smiling. “I’ll think about it,” Jim conceited.
“That’s my baby brother,” Tim winked. “Cheers.”
The Dossier
The Way It Used To Be
Joe slept contently in his bed as a rock clinked and clacked its way down the air supply pipe before smacking him right between the eyes. “What the FRICK!” he exclaimed rubbing his forehead. Picking up the rock he remained motionless as he squinted into the pitch-black pipe. “It’s a BEAUTI-FUL MORN-ING! Ahhhh! I think I’ll stay inside for a while!” Jim shouted as he kicked in his son’s bedroom door.
Some Useful Thresholds For Ranking WRs & RBs
Chapter 1
Joe slept contently in his bed as a rock clinked and clacked its way down the air supply pipe before smacking him right between the eyes. “What the FRICK!” he exclaimed rubbing his forehead. Picking up the rock he remained motionless as he squinted into the pitch-black pipe. “It’s a BEAUTI-FUL MORN-ING! Ahhhh! I think I’ll stay inside for a while!” Jim shouted as he kicked in his son’s bedroom door.
“I’m already awake Dad.”
“Well that’s good cause you’re late for class,” Jim replied. Jim was a tall man with broad shoulders and a noticeably poor posture. He often looked tired from spending countless hours researching and writing. He proudly wore his faded jeans and grey crewneck Lions sweatshirt every day.
“I still need to feed Sauron,” Joe replied looking over at his hamster, who often secluded himself in his solitary tower amongst his maze of tubes.
“I’ll feed him. Just get to class,” Jim said. “What are you learning about?”
“We’re still learning about rankings,” Joe said as he grabbed his green and yellow ballcap and hurried to the front door switch.
“I’ll see ya later,” Jim mumbled as the steel hatch closed.
The classroom went dark momentarily until the blue light from the rear hologram tunneled its way to the front. There he was, flickering in the gloom and suspended in mid-air making an acrobatic catch over a defender.
“Alright! As you might have figured out by now, we are going to begin today’s lecture discussing historic wide-receiver thresholds!” the Coach bellowed. The Coach could be heard a mile away from the swishes of his windbreaker or the whistle he blew at unsuspecting students. “Here is our golden standard. Justin Jefferson. He is the WR all other WRs aspire to be and the one we measure all other WRs by. Now, being in our Silo, we can run billions of simulations with GPS tracking, we can refer to genetic testing performed on prospects at birth, consult KTC Brokers, or refer to Alpha Dog when creating our rankings. But those options weren’t available to dynasty players in the Old World. Your daddies used crude data points like height and weight to figure this stuff out.
“Let’s pretend the year is 2023. Using a minimum WR threshold of 5’9”, 180 lbs can anyone tell me how many top-12 WRs in PPR WoRP met that requirement?”
“All of them Coach!” a student blurted out.
“That’s right Larry,” Coach replied. “But what if we sort by the old-school PPR points per game?”
“Same result Coach!” Larry exclaimed.
“Obviously, this may be easy for some of ya like Larry, but this is the minimum threshold. The ideal threshold for a WR is 5’10”, 180 lbs. Where every inch counts, do our WoRP results change for the top 12?”
“No Coach!” a different student shouted. “Regardless if WoRP or PPR points per game sort the data, all the wide receivers in this sample meet the ideal threshold!”
“Nothing gets past you Barry!” Coach acclaimed. “Alrighty, let's move on…”
“Coach?” a voice cracked in the back row. “Aren’t there some WR 2’s and 3’s that don’t fit these thresholds?”
“Who said that?” The silence was deafening as Coach scanned the classroom.
“It’s Joe sir,” he said raising his hand. The overhead lights flashed on, disorienting the students.
“Well since you’re so curious, why don’t we have you do a little exercise for all of us Joe? Come to the front!”
Joe stood up awkwardly from his desk and marched to what felt like his execution. No student dared to make eye contact with Joe, afraid they would be swept up in the Coach’s trial. That is except the twins Larry and Barry, who made sure Joe noticed their shaking heads and grins.
“Now, I want you to write for all of us Joe the top 36 WRs from 2023 sorted by WoRP and PPG for both the minimum and ideal thresholds. We’ll wait,” Coach said with his arms folded.
Joe began to write…
Minimum WR Thresholds: ≥ 5'9" , 180 lbs
WoRP (PPR)
(1-12) Hill, Lamb, Amon-Ra, Keenan, Puka, A.J., Evans, D.J., Aiyuk, Deebo, Adams, Pittman -- (13-24) Diggs, Amari, Nico, Chase, DeVonta = 6’0” 170 lbs (17th in PPR WoRP), Thielen, Olave, Metcalf, Waddle, Garrett, Pickens, Jefferson -- (25-36) Flowers, Hopkins, Addison = 5’11” 173 lbs (27th in PPR WoRP), Ridley, Kupp, Dell = 5’8” 165 lbs (30th in PPR WoRP), Rice, Jayden Reed, Jakobi, Godwin, London, McLaurin
0/12 = 0%
1/24 = 4.17%
3/36 = 8.33%
PPG (PPR)
(1-12) Lamb, Hill, Keenan, Amon-Ra, Jefferson, Puka, Nico, AJ, DJ, Mike Williams, Evans, Chase -- (13-24) Deebo, Diggs, Adams, Pittman, Aiyuk, Amari, Dell = 5’8” 165 lbs (19th in PPR PPG), Olave, DeVonta = 6’0” 170 lbs (21st in PPR PPG), Waddle, Metcalf, Jakobi -- (25-36) Kupp, Thielen, Jayden Reed, Ridley, Rice, Hopkins, Addison = 5’11” 173 lbs (31st in PPR PPG), Flowers, Garrett, Kirk, Bourne, Godwin
0/12 = 0%
2/24 = 8.33%
3/36 = 8.33%
Ideal WR Thresholds: ≥ 5'10", 180 lbs
WoRP (PPR)
(1-12) Hill, Lamb, Amon-Ra, Keenan, Puka, A.J., Evans, D.J., Aiyuk, Deebo, Adams, Pittman -- (13-24) Diggs, Amari, Nico, Chase, DeVonta = 6’0” 170 lbs (17th in PPR WoRP), Thielen, Olave, Metcalf, Waddle = 5’9” 180 lbs (21st in PPR WoRP), Garrett, Pickens, Jefferson -- (25-36) Flowers = 5’9” 182 lbs (25th in PPR WoRP), Hopkins, Addison = 5’11” 173 lbs (27th in PPR WoRP), Ridley, Kupp, Dell = 5’8” 165 lbs (30th in PPR WoRP), Rice, Jayden Reed, Jakobi, Godwin, London, McLaurin
0/12 = 0%
2/24 = 8.33%
5/36 = 13.89%
PPG (PPR)
(1-12) Lamb, Hill, Keenan, Amon-Ra, Jefferson, Puka, Nico, AJ, DJ, Mike Williams, Evans, Chase -- (13-24) Deebo, Diggs, Adams, Pittman, Aiyuk, Amari, Dell = 5’8” 165 lbs (19th in PPR PPG), Olave, DeVonta = 6’0” 170 lbs (21st in PPR PPG), Waddle = 5’9” 180 lbs (22nd in PPR PPG), Metcalf, Jakobi -- (25-36) Kupp, Thielen, Jayden Reed, Ridley, Rice, Hopkins, Addison = 5’11” 173 lbs (31st in PPR PPG), Flowers = 5’9” 182 lbs (32nd in PPR PPG), Garrett, Kirk, Bourne, Godwin
0/12 = 0%
3/24 = 12.5%
5/36 = 13.89%
“Can you tell us what you notice about these players that fall outside the threshold Joe?” Coach asked. Joe looked at the screen before ultimately shaking his head.
“They are all BETAS!” Larry hollered.
“Do we care about beta’s or outliers?” Coach posed to the class with his eyes fixed on Joe.
“NO!” the whole class said in unison.
“In case you forgot Joe, only the gamblers that walk above your head put their hopes in outliers. You do care about winning, don’t ya?”
“What about running backs Coach?”
“I guess not,” Coach exhaled. “How about after class, you can repeat this same exercise for RBs and captivate anyone interested in learning about a dead position. Take your seat.”
Joe kept his head down for the rest of the class, wondering why he couldn’t help but disagree and make a fool of himself constantly.
At the end of the lecture, Joe diligently typed out the entire RB list. He noticed that very few top RBs didn’t fit the minimum threshold, but a significantly higher percentage of RBs didn’t fall within the classic ideal archetype in 2023. After finishing and excited to share his findings, he looked up to find that only the chairs and desks stuck around with bated breath.
Minimum RB Thresholds: ≥ 5'7", 198 lbs
WoRP (PPR)
(1-12) McCaffrey, Kyren 5’9” 194 lbs (2nd in PPR WoRP), Mostert, Breece, Etienne, Rachaad, Cook, Henry, Bijan, Barkley, Gibbs, Kamara -- (13-24) Mixon, Pollard, Pacheco, Ford, Brian Robinson, Swift, Walker, Montgomery, Achane = 5’9” 188 lbs (21st in PPR WoRP), Ekeler, Conner, Warren
1/12 = 8.33%
2/24 = 8.33%
PPG (PPR)
(1-12) McCaffrey, Kyren 5’9” 194 lbs (2nd in PPR PPG), Kamara, Mostert, Achane = 5’9” 188 lbs (5th in PPR PPG), Breece, Etienne, Gibbs, Barkley, Rachaad, Mixon, Taylor -- (13-24) Conner, Pacheco, Montgomery, Henry, Bijan, Jacobs, Cook, Walker, Brian Robinson, Ekeler, Pollard, Swift
2/12 = 16.67%
2/24 = 8.33%
Ideal RB Thresholds: 5'9", 210 lbs
WoRP (PPR)
(1-12) McCaffrey = 5’11” 202 lbs (1st in PPR WoRP), Kyren 5’9” 194 lbs (2nd in PPR WoRP), Mostert = 5’11” 205 lbs (3rd in PPR WoRP), Breece, Etienne, Rachaad, Cook = 5’11” 199 lbs (7th in PPR WoRP), Henry, Bijan, Barkley, Gibbs = 5’9” 199 lbs (11th in PPR WoRP), Kamara -- (13-24) Pollard, Pacheco, Ford, Brian Robinson, Swift = 5’8” 212 lbs (18th in PPR WoRP), Walker, Montgomery, Achane = 5’9” 188 lbs (21st in PPR WoRP), Ekeler = 5’9” 199 (22nd in PPR WoRP), Conner, Warren = 5’8” 207 lbs
5/12 = 41.67%
9/24 = 37.5%
PPG (PPR)
(1-12) McCaffrey = 5’11” 202 lbs (1st in PPR PPG), Kyren 5’9” 194 lbs (2nd in PPR PPG), Kamara, Mostert = 5’11” 205 lbs (4th in PPR PPG), Achane = 5’9” 188 lbs (5th in PPR PPG), Breece, Etienne, Gibbs = 5’9” 199 lbs (8th in PPR PPG), Barkley, Rachaad, Mixon, Taylor -- (13-24) Conner, Pacheco, Montgomery, Henry, Bijan, Jacobs, Cook = 5’11” 199 lbs (19th in PPR PPG), Walker, Brian Robinson, Ekeler = 5’9” 199 (22nd in PPR PPG), Pollard, Swift = 5’8” 212 lbs (24th in PPR PPG)
5/12 = 41.67%
8/24 = 33.33%
Chapter 2
Joe sat silently at his modest dinner table, scrunching his toes on the AstroTurf carpet. The sound of Jim’s record player bounced gently off the riveted lead-cased walls. He played Humperdinck when he felt particularly sentimental.
“What’s wrong Joe? You barely touched your party wings.”
“Dad, what was 2023 like for RBs?” Joe asked.
“Well, let’s see,” Joe said as he rubbed his goatee. “Lots of great backs were in the twilight of their careers. Kamara, Ekeler, Mixon, and Conner all enjoyed their final year of relevance. They all fell off hard in 2024. The great PFF historian Tej Seth discovered that most RBs have negative rushing yards over expected (RYOE) after their rookie contracts in year five. Some of the elites can keep it up in year six, but an RB staying productive through year seven is extremely rare. Barkley enjoyed a nice season with the Eagles. And of course, there was Henry with the Ravens! Man, what a season he had in his ninth year!”
“Nine years!?!” Joe said intrigued.
“Oh Ya! Over 2,000 career carries at that point. He hung in there while most other runners saw negative RYOE after 1,500 career carries. Jacobs and CMC didn’t last much longer after 2024. It was the end of an era. Only a few workhorses stuck around after that in the Old World.” Jim stared solemnly into the small, rounded television. He could picture the vintage football clips from the early 21st century playing in black and white.
“Everyone got mad at me in class cause I questioned thresholds. Coach said outliers and betas are for the gamblers out there,” Joe said.
“You know, one of the best players of all time was an outlier. He was also RB, no less,” Jim said pointing to a poster in the corner of the room. “Barry Sanders was not an ideal size at 5,8” and 203 lbs. He was the smallest player to ever win MVP. There’s never been a player like him since.” Jim paused and took a deep breath before continuing, “He was your grandfather’s favorite player. It’s the reason why I’m a Detroit fan. You have to understand Joe, people don’t like outliers because it tests their process. But sometimes, you Can’t Help Falling In Love, as someone once said. For some, it’s a lot easier to act like unicorns aren’t real.”
Joe laughed, “But unicorns aren’t real Dad.”
Jim smiled, “I’ll finish your wings. Go finish your homework.”
“Oh Dad, one last thing. My classmates were down in the archives. Who’s Brandi Love?”
“She was also an MVP son.”
Chapter 3
The metal cushioned chair squeaked as Joe rocked back and forth. With his arms folded behind his head, he watched his ceiling fan and contemplated his homework assignment. The prompt was straightforward but wasn’t easy: define the characteristics of a historical #1 at any position. Pouring over his history books, he came across the records of Peter Howard, Mike Liu, and Drew Osinchuk from the 2020s. Knowing precisely who asserted the following has been lost to the annals of history:
“There are five characteristics necessary to be the top-performing RB.
Must have an elite trait (90th percentile 40-yard dash, Speed Score, Burst Score, or Agility Score.)
Must have a 75th percentile or better College Dominator Rating or at least one season in the NFL with a top 10 Dominator rating (above 34%).
Top 5 in Target Share amongst RBs (above 10.6%).
Top 5 in Snap Share (above 68.6%)
Top 5 in Red Zone touches.
Based on this data, Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, and Jonathan Taylor are strong candidates to be the top RB in 2024. Bijan Robinson has a path to being the best runner if the new regime in Atlanta can provide the sophomore elite Red Zone opportunities. Breece Hall is the final contender vying to be the best back in 2024. His main hurdles will be Red Zone opportunities and a top 5 Snap Share.”
I wonder who the best was in 2024? But before Joe could turn the page, his motion was interrupted by a familiar sound. This time, it was a bottle cap that journeyed its way to his soft pillow. Inspecting the red cola emblem, Joe turned his gaze to the cold metal slats of the round vent. He removed the cover and looked up into the dark void.
“Hello?”
