Startup ADP Retention Vs. Expert Rankings

Chapter 7

Joe covered his face first with a blanket, then a pillow, but no matter how hard he tried, he could not fall asleep. Turning over in bed, he stared at the soft pink glow that emanated from Sauron’s night light. The wheel squeaked as the hamster ran round and round in his cardio contraption. No matter what Joe did, Mary was all he thought about.

It was nearly midnight when Joe heard the rattle of his pipe. BAM! The rock skipped off Joe’s forehead and into his covers. It simply read “Meet now!” Quickly grabbing his ball cap and backpack, he squeezed through the front hatch of his home to not alert his sleeping father. Carefully retracing his classmates' path when they snuck off to party, Joe reached the narrow passageway to the surface. Grabbing the first rung, he slowly made his way up the 40-foot ascent. Joe’s hands shook nervously as he spun open the hatch.

The high-pitched howl of the wasteland wind ripped the door from Joe’s hand and he was choked with dust. He quickly closed the hatch disguised as an overgrown bush and tied a strip of cloth to one of its branches. Scanning the horizon he saw a light flickering in the distance of the valley and set off towards it.

A slender figure stood up and slowly walked towards Joe, its silhouette blurred by the brilliance of the bonfire.

“Joe?!” said the figure.

“Mary?”

“You made it!” she exclaimed.

There was a silence before Joe finally reached into his bag saying, “So, I brought what you asked for.”

“The Win-Now ADP!? Wow, thank you!” said Mary. “This is going to be so helpful, Joe. There’s so much noise here on the surface, it can be tough to know which way to go.” Her infernal red hair seemed as bright as the fire they stood beside, further accentuated by her oxblood jacket.

Joe sat and watched the raging campfire, following the embers as they disappeared into the night sky.

“Pretty amazing, huh?” she said. “It can be brutal for some but I love adventuring out here. Free from any cares… outside of heat stroke and giant scorpions.”

“Ya, it's amazing,” he replied. The flames glimmered in her large eyes, one emerald, the other aquamarine.

“Are you a-”

“Mutant!? Nope. No awful disease or cool powers for me. Everyone thought the same growing up but I just have some crazy eyes is all.”

“Well, that’s cool,” Joe said awkwardly. “So, what are your plans, Mary?” he asked.

“Make enough winnings to get the hell out of here. A long time ago, my dad made some bad bets on Trey Lance and Justin Fields that he’s been trying to pay off since.”

“Damn, that sucks.”

“It’s life. Happens all the time,” Mary shrugged. “But now you’re here to help us out,” she said smiling.

“Whatever I can do to help,” Joe nodded.

Mary stood up to throw more logs on the fire. “That makes me very happy to hear. There’s not a lot of people like yourself up here. Perhaps we can make this a regular thing?”

“What do you mean?” Joe inquired.

“I need your help, Joe. I know I could make it far in the AlphaDog tournament with you - over ten billion credits in prizes. We could split whatever winnings we get. What do you say? Can you help me?”

No girl has ever been interested in me before. Is this what it feels like? I’m not sure.

“Sure, what the hell. I’ll help you,” Joe agreed.

“Thank you,” Mary said rubbing Joe’s back.

Joe sat contently beside Mary listening to the wood snap and splinter from the heat of the fire. He didn’t think to ask her where she was from, discuss his favorite hobbies, or imagine how they would spend the tournament prize money. All Joe could think about was how different the surface was from the Silo. Coming from a place that breathed with electricity and incessant stimulation, he didn’t realize how weary his mind had become until it was finally unplugged. The only thing left for Joe to ponder was what would happen next.

“Oh, I should tell you, Joe, there’s-” Mary was interrupted by approaching footsteps. Joe looked up to see a man carrying dead branches. He was wearing a heavy-duty work coat and a plaid green undershirt. He had a tired face with a salt and peppered beard and hair. The firewood snapped as the man let it fall beside him.

The man looked at Mary and asked, “Who’s this?”

Chapter 8

The man’s brow coiled around his eyes as he inspected Joe.

“Lukos! This is my friend, Joe! He’s the one I told you about from the Silo!” Mary interjected.

“Nice to meet you,” Joe said extending his hand toward the man.

Lukos’ glare darted from Joe to Mary. “Hm,” Lukos said, ignoring Joe’s gesture.

“Here Joe! Have a drink with us,” Mary said kindly. Joe cautiously sat down as she removed three beers from a nearby cooler.

First, I’m on the surface. Now, I’m having a beer with degenerates! Holy shit!

The can exploded with foam into Joe’s face. Lukos shook his head slowly.

“Whoopsies!” Mary laughed.

“Joe is gonna be our secret weapon for the tourney Lukos!” Mary exclaimed.

“Is that so?” Lukos said uninterested.

“Yeah, I have a good feeling that if we can think like the geriatrics who always win, and can look back to when they played, it will give us a huge leg up with data like this,” Mary said raising the ADP data.

“You’re still pursuing the Hindsight Strategy, huh?” Lukos asked. “Sounds like you both have it figured out.”

Lukos took a large swig of beer. “That Startup ADP, what year did you say it was from?”

“2024,” Joe replied.

“2024,” Lukos nodded belching. “Well, here’s the thing about the world of Dynasty. It’s all about staying power, value retention, shit like that. No one wants to draft Deshaun Watson in the 2nd round of 2023 if he’s going to be a 7th rounder in 2024, do they?

Lukos leaned forward, “Let’s say you compared the first 12 rounds of Startup ADP from 2023 and 2024, and let’s also say that you accounted for a margin of error that increased every round. Do you have any idea how much turnover there is in ADP from year to year, even with the room for error?!”

“Sure, you may be safe in the first round with it having the best ADP Retention at 50%, followed by the second round at 41.67%, but after that, there’s a sharp decline in ADP retention (fluctuating between 25 - 0%).
RBs had the best ADP retention amongst all positions at a meager 26.82%, which is ironic given the market.
TEs, WRs, & QBs all experienced ADP Turnover at +81%.
In total, only 20.83% of all players in the first 12 rounds of Consensus Startup ADP retained their standing from 2023 to 2024. There’s simply no consistency.”

“How much of that ADP turnover is attributed to making room for incoming rookies?” Joe interjected.

“Well, there were 20 rookies in the first 12 rounds of the 2023 ADP (13.89%) and 24 rookies in the 2024 ADP (16.67%), but we all know how good of bets rookies are, don’t we? And look how many we put at the top of startups.” Lukos said shaking his head.

“Up here, your fancy analytics can only take you so far against five hundred million contestants?” Lukos said slowly. “That’s the sad part for most dynasty players - y’all think too long-term. It takes them years to discover what they could have figured out in just one year of Re-Draft… you can’t prepare for chaos.”

After a long pause, Joe said, “That may be the case for y’all up here, but I doubt anyone in the tournament has this.” Joe swung around his backpack and pulled out a large, chrome object.

Lukos stared intently at the helmet. “Joe… who runs your channel?” he said with strain.

“My Uncle Tim is the Magistrate. He’s brothers with my dad, James.” Joe replied.

Lukos labored but eventually managed a stiff nod before looking away. “Before the war, being a degenerate was a badge of honor,” Lukos began. “I remember being around your age when I got invited to my first league. I was a nobody before that. Lucky me, I won it my first year! But the one thing they don’t tell you kid… winning is a painful addiction. Everything else takes a backseat before you lose it all. Friends, family. The only thing that matters is being at the top. Do yourself a favor kid, go back to where you came from. You have no idea what people are capable of out here when winning is survival,” Lukos said standing up. He threw down his empty beer can and crushed it swiftly under his boot. “I’m gonna take a leak. When I get back, I hope you’re gone. Say goodbye to your friend Mary,” he said, turning away. Before Joe or Mary could say anything, he was gone in the dark.

Chapter 9

Joe remained beside Mary, watching her countenance slowly begin to dim.

“I’m sorry Joe,” she said. “I’m so freaking stupid. I didn’t mean for this to happen. I was desperate and made the same mistake I always do - I got my hopes up and embarrassed myself, per usual.”

“I’ll help you, Mary,” Joe said, offering her a smile.

Mary laughed awkwardly before composing herself enough to ask “Why Joe?”

“I told you I would and I’m a man of my word. I’m tired of people telling me what I can and cannot do. But this is no one else’s business. Don’t worry, I want to do this.”

Mary stared at Joe perplexed before breathing out deeply. “You sure are something, Joe. Thank you.”

“Eh, it's nothing. Let me just get another beer and then I’ll get out of here.” Maybe the second one won’t taste like shit.

As Mary reached into the cooler, a mechanical humming began to fill the valley. The roar of engines grew louder until Joe and Mary were surrounded by the whirling and screeching of throttle and exhaust.

Lukos ran back to the fire, “What is he still doing here Mary?!” He whispered anxiously. The engines died and an eery silence lingered for a moment. The air was abruptly filled with high-pitched howling and yelping that a canine would make. The nocturnal call sunk deeply into Joe’s spine, raising the hairs on his arms and neck. “Fuck, this isn’t good,” Lukos said scrambling. He grabbed Mary and sat her next to Joe. “Don’t worry, just be cool,” Lukos said discreetly.

The sound of shifting sanding intensified until the bonfire illuminated what appeared to be a hundred faces. The sea of people parted to make way for one figure that approached slowly with its hands behind its back.

“Tyger! Tyger! Burning bright, in the forests of the night. What immortal hand or eye, could frame thy fearful symmetry?” the figure spoke. The creases of his black leather trench coat rubbed together as he bent down to look at Joe. Long raven hair disappeared into an oversized standup collar. His pale blue eyes were crowded with busted blood vessels, resembling a dead addict’s final moments. Mary and Lukos sat silently with their heads down.

“Where did you blow in from Toto?” the man said tugging at Joe’s clothes and tipping his cap. “Oh I’m sorry, where are my manners?! My name is Listin, Listin Roy,” he said extending his hand towards Joe.

“I’m Joe,” he said shaking Listin’s hand.

“Pleased to meet you, Joe. Hopefully, we didn’t miss out on too much. Say, Mary, is that beer in your hand taken?”

Mary shook her head, “No, Listin, you can have it.”

“You didn’t shake it, did ya?” he said pausing his outreached hand. Mary became petrified. “I’m just fucking with ya, Mary,” Listin laughed.

“Now, just how long have you known these two here?” Listin inquired.

“We just met tonight,” Joe replied.

“How interesting. Well, since we’re all getting to know each other, tell me about yourself, Joe.”

Joe wavered back and forth on what to say. “I’m a dynasty student.”

Listin shifted his body towards Lukos, “What a small wasteland! Lukos and I used to be into dynasty ourselves,” he said with a wide grin. “Don’t be shy, what’s your favorite subject?”

“Historical Data and Trading Philosophy.”

Listin began wagging his finger towards Joe, “That’s funny you should say that because I also appreciate the art of taking things from other people,” he said excitedly. “How fortuitous that we would cross paths tonight. But Joe, I just have to ask, ‘What in the HELL are you doing here?’”

Joe looked at Mary before looking back toward Listin, “I’m just wanting to get out there and share what I know to help people.”

Listin snapped his fingers and nodded, “I’m not gonna lie, most other people I would laugh at for saying something like that, but I can tell you’re being genuine. That takes guts. All these people around you were once like sheep without a shepherd. In this cruel world, do you know what true power is? It’s not knowledge, it’s not tools, it’s not credits. It’s strength in numbers. But not everyone can lead Joe, only a few have the vision. Do you have that same vision, Joe?”

Joe looked into the faces of the crowd around him as he contemplated. Each one sporting an assortment of tattered biker garb, animal skins, and punk hairstyles.

“I think so,” Joe finally answered.

Listin raised his beer to Joe, but paused halfway, “I want to believe you Joe, but I have to make sure. Tell me, Joe… are you a fan of ghost stories?”

Joe sat bewildered.

“It’s my favorite thing to do around a fire on nights like tonight, and lucky for you, I know someone who tells the scariest stories!” Listin said delighted.

The crowd separated once more, but this time for something that Joe could hardly comprehend. Four giants of men walking in a square were each carrying the ends of two poles. Situated within these poles was an old man, slouched in an ornate chair and appearing to be asleep. The man had a long faded red beard, interwoven with golden rings and beads. His face and bald head were covered in runic tattoos. The masses began to stomp in unison and a haunting chorus of guttural chants and animal cries began to fill Joe’s ears.

Listin raised his finger to his mouth and a hush fell upon the circle. “Joe, have you ever heard of the Fantasy Professionals?”

Joe shook his head.

“Well, they were a brotherhood of individuals who were born with special giftings. Mutants actually. When the war broke out, their entire order was wiped out. Only D here managed to survive,” Listin said, putting his hand on the mutant’s shoulder. “Now, I’m sure that you are painfully aware that people are obsessed with the future. And despite our best efforts, our ability to project can be quite dreadful. But I’m here to tell you Joe that this man here can open doors that only God can open. He dreams of both the past and the future. He has the power to create startup rankings that are twice as accurate as Consensus ADP from year to year.

In 2023, D’s first-round ADP Retention was an astounding 75%, followed by the second round at 58.33% and the third round at 50%.
Outside of his 5th round (16.67%) and 11th round (25%) rankings, no other round dipped below 33.33%.
QBs had the best ADP retention amongst all positions at 46.67%, followed by TEs at 44.44%.
RBs & WRs experienced the most ADP Turnover at only 61%.
In total, 40.67% of D’s Startup Rankings in 2023 retained their standing in 2024, nearly doubling Consensus ADP (20.83%) and outperforming the masses at every position.

But don’t take my word for it, Joe,” Listin said as he rummaged through his coat. “See for yourself.”

Listin pulled out a round bronze object and began to wind it backward. It was a double-sided clock, each side engraved with the face of a man, one young and one old.

“D, let Joe come and see, to behold the beasts of 2023.”

Before Joe could react, the bells of the clock rang violently and the bearded man awoke from his slumber. His eyes were devoid of any white. It was as if two black holes were pulling Joe in, their gravity inescapable. Joe looked to Mary for help, catching only a glimpse of her crimson hair before D clapped his hands, and everything went dark. The fire was instantly extinguished and everyone from the bonfire had vanished. Joe could not see, touch, or taste anything in the nightmarish gulf. All he could hear was his panicked breathing.

Lost in the ether of the dream, a mist began to appear around Joe. He looked through the fog and saw the first beast. It was a cheetah that had been slowed in time, chasing prey across a great plain, but stumbling just before it could reach its prize. The second beast was a young bull with great horns, breathing fire from its nostrils. The third beast was a colt, immense and powerful. It was cut down before it could reach its stride. The fourth beast was a lamb with spiraling horns. It scaled a steep cliff and reached the summit. Then Joe saw in the final vision, a great obsidian throne with a stygian crown seated upon it. And from the heavens, a great raven descended upon the place of power. The creature’s flapping wings and croak began to echo louder and louder through the ruins of the pillared hall, resonating in Joe’s mind to a deafening pitch. It wasn’t until the noise rivaled the roar of the loudest coliseum that Joe saw out of the corner of his eye a gaunt and colorless hand on his shoulder. Before Joe could turn to see the rest of the figure, another hand began to wrap around Joe’s face-

CLAP!

Derek Brown’s 2024 Dynasty Rankings can found at:

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/rankings/derek-brown.php?type=dynasty&position=OP

Consensus Startup ADP, SuperFlex (2023-2024)