Week 1 Dossier

Pressed Back Into Action

Reporting for Duty

Welcome back. We thought you were dead. I trust that your time away was used wisely and wasn’t wasted away on a beach drinking endless Mai Tai’s. The season has officially begun, so we don’t have much time. You will immediately be reinstated into Active Service. Report to Field Surveillance to begin your briefing.

Field Surveillance

Beginning with what I observed from the opening weekend of NFL games, there are a few key takeaways that could impact the success of our fantasy seasons:

Defense & Running Game - The common theme in every outstanding performance or upset this week was dominant defenses that created turnovers. Through Week 1, the most intimidating defenses belong to the Dallas Cowboys (held NYG to 63 pass yds), the Cleveland Browns (held CIN to 142 total yds), the Los Angeles Rams (the biggest upset of Wk 1), and the San Francisco 49ers. Their Herculean performances led to the biggest blowouts we saw from this past weekend. These defenses are going to supply a rich amount of opportunities for their own offenses to put up ridiculous numbers in 2023.

Despite prevailing reports that running backs were either killed or MIA over the last few seasons, we can now confirm that many of these established defenses have allied themselves with prominent running games that can control the flow of contests. The Browns, Rams, Chargers, Jaguars, Lions, and 49ers all made their presence known through their ground assault (34+ attempts), which in turn led to positive outcomes for their passing attacks as well. These are only the preliminary findings through the limited sample we have, but it is generally recommended to acquire assets on teams that have command in the trenches.

Usage Activity

The usage of a player is one of the most critical pieces of intel that we can use to our advantage. Here are some points of interest worth considering:

Rams vs. Seahawks - Kyren Williams out-snapped Cam Akers 53 to 28 (65% vs. 35% snap share), but Cam still out-touched Kyren with 22 and 15 carries respectively. Those 22 carries for Akers amounted to only 23 yards - arguably the worst rushing performance of the entire weekend. Puka Nacua had arguably the best performance of any rookie in week 1, tying Tyreek Hill with a league-high 15 targets on a 78% snap share. Kenneth Walker, DK Metcalf, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba were all tied in the team-high targets at five each, with Tyler Lockett trailing closely behind with four targets.

Eagles vs. Patriots - Kendrick Bourne led all New England playmakers in snap percentage (91%) and targets (11), while Rhamondre Stevenson led the team in total touches with 18 (12 carries, 6 catches on 73% snap share). Ezekiel Elliot tied Roschon Johnson with a league-high 7 targets in the passing game. Kenneth Gainwell out-snapped D’Andre Swift 62% to 29% and out-touched him 18 to 2. 

Dolphins vs. Chargers - The Los Angeles ground attack was equally distributed between Austin Ekeler and Joshua Kelley at 51% & 48% snap share respectively and 16 carries each. The Cheetah is still the fastest animal in the NFL Kingdom, registering the two fastest plays from week 1 with a 21.66 mph 47 yd play and a 21.52 mph 35 yd touchdown.

Raiders vs. Broncos - Jakobi Meyers played 80% of the offensive snaps as the #2 WR behind Adams, well ahead of Hunter Renfrow’s 22% snap share. There is nothing to report on the Denver front. 

Packers vs. Bears - Roschon Johnson did not receive a touch until the 3rd quarter but led the three-headed committee with a 39% snap-share compared to Khalil’s 36% and D’Onta Foreman’s 28% share. Despite being 28 years old, Aaron Jones is still one of the best RBs in the league, posting the best fantasy performance at the position for week 1 and registering the third-fastest play behind only Tyreek Hill with his 21.48 mph 35 yd TD reception.

Cardinals vs. Commanders - Michael Wilson led all rookie WRs with a 90% snap share but registered only 2 catches on 4 targets. Brian Robinson continues to dominate Antonio Gibson in terms of touches (20 vs. 4) and snaps (61% vs. 35%).

I49ers vs. Steelers - Pittsburgh only attempted 9 total rushes with their RBs - it’s safe to say that being down 17-0 shortly after the beginning of the second quarter and going up against a nasty 49ers D-line forced the Steelers to abandon the run early. Brock Purdy posted the best QBR of week 1 at 91.3 (only slightly ahead of Matthew Stafford & Tua Tagovailoa).

Titans vs. Saints - Derrick Henry was out-snapped by backup Tyjae Spears 48% to 54% respectively, but in a similar fashion as Akers and Kyren with the Rams, Henry out-touched Spears 17 to 3. Ryan Tannehill recorded the worst passer rating of any QB in week 1 and should be deemed a threat to any playmaker production, but must be preserved as Tennessee’s Puppet QB over the far more disastrous backup options.

Jaguars vs. Colts - Travis Etienne was allotted the lion’s share of the running game with an 80% snap share and 23 touches (18 carries, 5 catches). Meanwhile, Deon Jackson gave Cam Akers a run for his money with one of the most abysmal performances in week 1 (14 rushing yds on 13 carries on a 71% snap share).

Bengals vs. Browns - In the battle for Ohio, Nick Chubb only played on 36 snaps (49% snap-share) but had 22 touches on the limited plays he saw, and led the Browns with 4 receptions. 

Texans vs. Ravens - Much will be made of Rashod Bateman’s limited usage (only 39% snap-share), but considering his injury history and recent foot procedure, it makes sense for the team to be cautious with their talented first-round pick. Their newest first-round pick selection is also very talented and commanded 9 receptions on 10 targets on an 84% snap share. Dameon Pierce did not enjoy the same type of performance, mustering 47 total yards on only 13 touches and a 45% snap-share.

Panthers vs. Falcons - The running game was the central attraction for both teams. Bijan Robinson led the Falcons RBs in snap-share at 63% (Tyler Allgeier had a 56% snap-share) but it was Allgeier who led the ground game in touches with 18 total (Bijan 16 total touches). There is a high level of suspicion that records of Desmond Ridder’s passing were Window-Dressed in order to deceive intelligence agencies that he had the second-highest Passer Rating from week 1 at 111.8 (behind Jordan Love’s 123.2 rating).

WoRP Arsenal

Before WoRP Technologies can be effectively utilized, 3-4 weeks of intel will be required to ensure greater mission success.

Waiver Targets

In terms of FAAB bidding, it’s best to review your league’s previous waiver behavior to best navigate the wire. 

• Joshua Kelley - 6.8% rostership, spend up to 10% FAAB (Ekeler’s status for week 2 unclear)

• Gus Edwards - 20.1% rostership, 5-6% FAAB (far more effective rusher over Justice Hill)

• Chuba Hubbard - 20.7% rostership, 5% FAAB

• Kyren Williams - 6.2% rostership, 4-5% FAAB

• Puka Nacua - 10.1% rostership, 10-15% FAAB

• Kendrick Bourne - 2% rostership, 3-4% FAAB (better for Best Ball)

• Rashid Shaheed - 12.6% rostership, 2-3% FAAB (only 54% snap share wk 1, better for BB)

• Josh Reynolds - 4.2% rostership, 0% FAAB (better for BB)

• Robert Woods - 9.1% rostership, 0% FAAB (better for BB)

• Allen Robinson - 4.6% rostership, 0% FAAB (led the team in receiving yds & tied for team-high snaps amongst PIT WRs at 89%, better for BB)

• Tutu Atwell - 6.5% rostership, 0% FAAB (hesitant to buy in just yet)

• River Cracraft - 0% rostership, 0% FAAB (better for BB)

• Hunter Henry - 7.3% rostership, 5% FAAB (don’t go on a wild TE chase)

• Hayden Hurst - 12.1% rostership, 4% FAAB

Double Agents

Do not trust the following assets:

• Kenneth Gainwell - 35.1% rostership - don’t buy the Swift propaganda

• Justice Hill - 0% rostership - the 2 TD provocateur will become a non-factor once Baltimore signs a new RB

Assets to Acquire

Given how early it is into our campaign, I advise caution and do not recommend trading away any 1st or 2nd round picks at this time:

• Jakobi Meyers - 2x 3rd rd picks or a 3rd + a player. I would wait another week or two before trading away a 2025 2nd. 

• Tyler Allgeier - 2x 3rd rd picks or a 3rd + a player. I would wait another week or two before trading away a 25 2nd.

• Joshua Kelley - 2x 4ths or a 3rd rd pick (start with a 25 3rd rd pick)

Positional Volatility

Expect the Unexpected

Everything is Ruined

From the moment the Chiefs were crowned Super Bowl LVII champions, 206 days, 22 hours, and 6 tortuous minutes will have passed that have deprived us of meaningful football. But there are no off-seasons for degenerate fantasy players. The blue-light glasses may have spared your eyes from the hours of late-night film studies and data entry, but your ears will never recover from the shameful amount of podcasts and YouTube you fed your big brain. There is no bridge too far, nor is there any sacrifice too big if it means our hard work will help us grasp glory this upcoming season. With only three days left until kick off of the new league year, we can see the light at the end of the tunnel, and we can finally rest easy…or so we thought. It turns out the soothing light at the end of your tunnel was just a freight train comin' your way. 

Analytics and projections are pivotal, but having backup plans and contingencies can be equally paramount. What will you do if your starting QB gets hurt? What will happen to your playoff hopes if your stud RB holds out? Will you be able to overcome the devastation you wrought by drafting a rookie TE in the 9th round? The first step in being prepared for these scenarios is to ground both our research and strategy in historical data. The past cannot predict the future any more than data or statistics can. But what history can do is train us for the unforeseen. History is not kind to those who are oblivious to it. 

This article is largely inspired by Peter Howard (@pahowdy) 's video on June 3rd, 2023 entitled “Bet on the Olds?” In the video, Peter breaks down the process he uses to help inform his projections for the upcoming season. He uses three major categories to help analyze the year-by-year trends he finds for each position. The first category is classified as a ‘Repeat’ player, which is defined as a “player who was in the ‘top X’ group last season and the season before.” The second category is labeled a ‘Return’ player, which is specified as a “player that was in the ‘top X’ group last season and not the season before, but rather another season earlier in their career.” The last category is the ‘Breakout’ player, which is any “player that was in the ‘top X’ group for the first time last season.” Peter defines the “top X” group as the top 12, 24, and 36 for each position. The final element to note is that Peter’s results were based on data from 2022 to 2008. It would be beneficial to check out his results in the video linked at the end of this article. I strongly encourage subscribing to Peter’s content as well; he is one of the top analysts in the entire space. 

Peter’s video piqued my curiosity given how large of a sample he used for his data. I was interested in knowing how the league has changed over the last six seasons compared to the NFL landscape over the past 15 seasons. This idea was motivated by the notion that the game has been defined by high-level passing over the past five years by an elite corp of QBs and WRs that are all very relevant in today’s fantasy landscape. I was equally intent on discovering the impact these positional trends had on RBs, as well as settling once and for all that the TE position has never mattered in fantasy football.

Using FantasyPros’ 2017-2022 season-long total fantasy points (weeks 1-17, PPR) for each position, I grouped each player using Peter’s ‘Repeat,’ ‘Return,’ and ‘Breakout’ categories of players as defined earlier. A key difference between my data and Peter’s is that he divided each position by the top 12, 24, and 36. I on the other hand divided the QB and RB positions by the top 12 & 24, the WR position by the top 12, 24, & 36, and the TE position by the top 6 & 12. My logic for these ‘top X’ groups was to better mirror the most common starting lineup in SF leagues. Furthermore, I was interested in knowing the percentage of rookies that composed the top Breakout players, so I created an additional group for this purpose.  Finally, I put in parenthesis the approximate number of players that qualified for that ‘top X’ for those who become cross-eyed using percentages. Here is what I found. 

I Did Not See That Coming!

Like a hardened detective who has seen enough crime scenes to know all too well how it will all turn out, I had my hunch that the percentage of Repeat Top 12 QBs would be high, but I did not foresee it being 15% higher than Peter’s results!

Here are a few key takeaways I gathered from the QB position:

• The highest Repeat amongst all positions is QB at 60% (roughly 7 players) of the top 12 and 69.17% of the top 24.

• If it wasn’t obvious already, Patrick Mahomes II is in a class of his own. Mahomes is the only QB in this sample to remain in the Top 12 every year since he became the Chief’s starting QB. Only his teammate, Kelce, can boast of a similar feat.

• Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, and Josh Allen can be drafted with confidence - they have consistently been in the top 12 throughout most of their careers.

• Kirk Cousins is indeed the most underrated QB in the league - Top 12 in 4 out of 6 years, top 24 all 6 years.

• The majority of Return players were decent veteran backups with solid playing experience in very bad QB rooms (Ryan Fitzpatrick & Andy Dalton types).

• The theme for Breakout QBs was young players (usually in their rookie or 2nd year) who were well-known for their accuracy or elite rushing ability. 

When looking at RB, I was pleased to find that the position was comprised of a healthy mixture of stalwart vets and breakout talent.

Here are a few of the conclusions I took away from the RB position:

• A little less than half of the RBs in the top 12 and a little more than half in the top 24 are Repeat players - we have enjoyed a high level of certainty in knowing who the top RBs are over the last 4 seasons.

• The majority of Return players were arguably top 3 RBs at a given point who unfortunately got hurt & battled back to elite status. Never count out a RB. 

• In terms of Breakout RBs, these players typically received the vast majority of touches or saw very high usage in the passing game/goal line. 

• Rookie RBs boast the highest percentage of Breakouts amongst all positions at 12.5%, with nearly all of them being the highest-drafted RBs in their class (James Robinson & Phillip Lindsay are the only outliers in this sample).

The WRs were perhaps the most surprising of all the different positions in terms of the level of carry-over from year to year. 

The following is what I took away from the WR position:

• Of all the skill positions, WR is the most consistent with a 63.32% average of top 36 Repeat players over the last 6 seasons.

• Perhaps the biggest takeaway from the Repeat WRs is how consistently we see the elite vets in the top 36 - The seasoned WR may very well be the most dismissed position in all of fantasy with how obsessed the community is with acquiring youthful talent.

• Outside of injury, it is difficult to discern many other factors that play into a WR Returning to the top 36. 

• Similar to QB, the majority of Breakout WRs were in their 1st or 2nd season.

• WR was close behind RB in the percentage of Breakout Rookies at 9.44% average amongst the top 36. 

Investigating the TE scene is the part of the job that no one tells you about when you first start off as a wide-eyed analyst - luckily your partner Johnnie Walker always has your back.

Here are some of the painful lessons that the TE position has taught us:

• Do not be fooled by these high percentages of Repeat players in the TE position - it’s Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, and that’s pretty much it.

• There’s no rhyme or reason in terms of the Return TEs - some of them return from injury but many of them just end up on a milk carton for a few seasons & then are rediscovered in a faraway city years later. 

• There’s even less reason for discovering the links amongst breakout TEs -  a few of them are 2nd or 3rd-year players, and some of them are much longer in the tooth before they ever get to experience the limelight. 

• The absolute worst bet you can make in all of fantasy is on a rookie TE. You have a 1.67% chance of a rookie TE being top 12, which has only happened once since 2017 & that was with Pitts.

• Just save yourself the hassle & fade the position after Kelce & Andrews.

The ‘Not For Long’ League

The fantasy streets are littered with broken projections and shattered championship dreams. You can’t always plan or defend against it. Exercising caution, recalling what experience has taught you, and having some sort of way out is your best bet. It was my intention to unveil my rankings with these categories built into them, but three weeks on dogwatch has me forgetting what my wife’s face looks like, so we’ll save that for a future article. Catch ya later on down the trail.

Howard, Peter. “Bet on the Olds?” Jun 3, 2023
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xqubB_P4GnA&t=3s

This article has been perfected by Dr. B Harris

Underdog Drafts

In the Mouth of Madness

Jon Snowing It

The Allied evacuation of Dunkirk during WWII, King Leonidas’ Spartans at the Hot Gates, and the army of Rohan at the Battle of Helm’s Deep… these moments in history are a lazy Sunday afternoon compared to the odds faced in Underdog tournaments. In a Best Ball Mania IV contest that features 677,376 entrants on the battlefield, the only chance for survival is the most rigorous commitment to a tempered strategy. Do not be tempted to invest tens of thousands of dollars into building a data center outfitted with complex algorithms that draft for you - Mad Max didn’t use AI when he entered the Thunderdome and neither should you. Instead, we will focus on wielding a process trained by historical data, risk assessment, and the most powerful tools in the space. This path does not guarantee all of your teams will survive the first onslaught, nor your most promising 18th-round pick will save you in the eleventh hour. But rest assured there’s no greater confidence than harnessing a strategy that can adapt to any circumstance that was built with your own sweat and efforts. Let’s get into it. 

WoRP Your Mind

We will begin by freeing your mind of everything you thought you knew about Underdog drafts. ADP would have us believe that WR and the elite QB have overtaken RB as the focal position of the format. At the writing of this article, 19 of the top 36 players are WRs, along with 4 QBs and 2 TEs, which leaves 11 RBs remaining in the top three rounds of ADP. But much like parents, ADP is something we ought to respect but not always something we need to follow. And in a tournament that rewards the most unique combination of players, it will actually be to your benefit to stand out from the crowd. But in order to separate ourselves to our benefit, we have to determine what the most valuable positions and players are given the scoring and roster format on Underdog. The single best method available to us in the space for determining production value is WoRP. 

I had the privilege of interviewing one of the foremost authorities in the field of WoRP, Dr. Koopa, Director of the Mind Flayer Project at the Labs of South Harmon Institute of Technology. In his research, he explains:

“WoRP, or Wins over Replacement Player, is a singular metric you can use to compare the value of players in your fantasy league, even across positions. Rather than using PPG, which can be biased towards one position (QBs) or against another (TEs), WoRP normalizes against the fantasy points of the replacement player, aka the best player at that position who didn't make your lineup. This allows you to compare one player to another, even if they score drastically different numbers of points. Finally, the values between positions can change from league to league, and the tool adjusts to your specific league settings to show you where an edge exists that wouldn't exist in a more "standard" league. With these calculations, we thought we might start a chain reaction that would destroy the entire fantasy world...I believe we did.”

Koopa may or may not have said that last part, but what is undeniable and most compelling is that WoRP “allows you to compare one player to another, even if they score drastically different numbers of points.” So what does 2022’s WoRP reveal to us about Underdog?

I hope everyone has been drafting RBs because they are far from being dead. Underdog is a half-point per reception scored format, which gives RBs more than a fighter’s chance to be on equal footing with their WRs counterparts. Three of the top four players last year were RBs, but Christian McCaffrey is the only RB who is being drafted consistently in the top six of Underdog drafts. Workhorse and dual-threat RBs are going to win contestants a lot of money this year.

When sorted by WoRP per game, there are only 13 WRs that make it into the top 36 (compared to the 19 WRs found in ADP), only 1 TE (2 TEs in ADP), and a whopping 18 RBs (only 11 RBs in top 36 of ADP)! It would appear that QB is the only position that is being drafted appropriately on Underdog and yet they are still being taken at value compared to their WoRP. 
When armed with this knowledge, participants can effectively navigate Underdog drafts by avoiding the landmines who are being drafted too far ahead of what they can truly offer and letting the real difference-makers fall to them (often past their true ADP in terms of WoRP). 

The Last of Us Strategy

Having played Underdog since their first year, there are a number of key lessons I have learned over the last three seasons. The following section comprises the very pillars of my strategy. To your benefit, I will hold these core principles of mine up to the magnificent light of WoRP, as well as in the brilliance of Hayden Wink’s research at Underdog Network. We will begin with Roster Construction, which is very similar to Taco Bell in that the possible combinations are endless despite there only being 4 ingredients.

2-3 QBs (DON'T get 2x top 5) - Having 2 top 5 QBs sounds good in theory, but we have to remember that this is a 1QB format, not SuperFlex. Why draft a 2nd elite QB at an elite cost (top 3-4 rds) that is going to score nearly the same amount of points as your other elite QB? Hayden Winks would further add “It looks like when we hit on a QB, it's best to wait until this Round 9-12 range.1” In terms of WoRP, the top 4 QBs were all nearly identical in the value they offered. I am betting on the elite 4 becoming an elite 7-8, with the likes of Lamar Jackson, Trevor Lawrence, Justin Herbert, or Justin Fields rounding out the steep slope we saw from last year.

Drafting 3 QBs is a strategy I am willing to employ in about a third of my drafts for two simple reasons: 1) I can capture 1-2 more high-WoRP skill players with the picks I would have otherwise spent on elite QBs if I’m aiming for 2nd/3rd tier QBs. 2) There are a number of QBs that have top-10 potential that are being drafted far later. But despite these assumptions, it’s hard to ignore how much better the elite QBs were compared to the rest of the field. The ideal QB strategy is perhaps drafting a top 8 QB and a 2nd QB that offers elite potential at a later ADP. Hayden Winks’ research affirms the 2 QB over the 3 QB strategy when he writes “2022: Once again, QB3 teams closed the gap on QB2 teams in Round 12, but never eclipsed them at any point on average.2”

3 TEs - An epidemic more alarming than the effects of Brainworm that continues to pervade the entire fantasy football space is the mishandling of the Tight End position. But thanks to recent breakthroughs in research, we have discovered a vaccine to cure our rosters of Persistent Tight End Arousal Syndrome (PTEAS). The best way to treat tight ends in Underdogs drafts is to draft three of them and punt the position entirely unless you have the fortune of drafting Travis Kelce. He is the one and only TE who consistently challenges the top RBs and WRs in fantasy that is worth his 1st round value.  

After Kelce the position plummets to an abysmal plane of existence that never once comes close to WRs or RBs. Given how flat the position is after TE 6 (Schultz = 0.032 WoRP/G) until TE 31 (Otton = 0.011 WoRP/G), there isn’t any upside to drafting a top 10-12 ADP tight end in the first 11 rounds of your Underdog drafts. It’s essential to draft 3 TEs given the absurd volatility of the position - Kelce registered a combined 20 Spike and Above Average weeks last season, while TEs 2-32 had an average 4.9 combined Spike and Above Average weeks in 2022. Woof.

5-6 RBs (5 RBs if you get 3 QBs) & 7-8 WRs (7 WRs if get 6 RBs or 3 QBs) - Knowing that 5-6 spots on your 17-player roster have already been spoken for by the QBs and TEs, this leaves 11-12 roster spots that can be devoted to the RB and WR position. There are a number of factors that play into drafting slightly more WRs than RBs, but the most significant is the starting lineups on Underdog (2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 Flex) and the edge in WoRP that WR commands after a certain point in the draft. Before every draft, I take a “snapshot” of how the WoRP/G distributes between the various positions every 6 spots in the top WoRP players.

As you can see in the above Underdog snapshot, RB and WR trade superiority throughout the top 42 of their respective positions, with perhaps a slight advantage to RB. That edge quickly gives way to the WRs after the 42nd RB and is never regained. Bearing this dropoff at RB in mind, be diligent in drafting at least 3, but ideally 4, of these top 40ish RBs, and saving room for 1-2 upside dart throws for later in your drafts.
Furthermore, I would not recommend drafting more than two rookie WRs per roster given how long it typically takes for rookies to acclimate to the NFL. Lastly, I would not advocate for drafting too many Boom WRs towards the end of the draft whose game is entirely predicated on the big-play over the safe-floor veterans that are routinely available.

There Can Only Be One!

Much more can be said about what it takes to be the last one standing, but outside of what I’ve already shared from my personal findings, I would highly recommend checking out the following articles from Hayden Winks to help prepare for Underdog drafts. I’ll end it with one final piece of advice: don’t draft timid - It’s better to burn out than to fade away!

1 - Winks, Hayden. “When To Draft QBs In Best Ball (Updated).” Jun 6th, 2023. https://underdognetwork.com/football/news/when-to-draft-qbs-in-best-ball-updated

2 - Winks, Hayden. “When To Draft QBs In Best Ball (Updated).” Jun 6th, 2023. https://underdognetwork.com/football/news/when-to-draft-qbs-in-best-ball-updated

Winks, Hayden. “Strategy Data For Underdog Fantasy's Weekly Winners.” Aug 7th 2023. https://underdognetwork.com/football/best-ball-research/strategy-data-for-underdog-fantasys-weekly-winners

Winks, Hayden. “How To Draft Zero RB Properly: "Even More Radicalized Zero RB." Apr 24th, 2022. https://underdognetwork.com/football/best-ball-research/how-to-draft-zero-rb-properly-even-more-radicalized-zero-rb

Winks, Hayden. “Draft More Best Ball Teams With Only 6-8 WRs.” Jun 27th, 2022. https://underdognetwork.com/football/best-ball-research/draft-more-best-ball-teams-with-only-6-8-wrs

Winks, Hayden. “When To Draft WRs In Best Ball (Updated).” May 16th, 2023. https://underdognetwork.com/football/best-ball-research/when-to-draft-wrs-in-best-ball-updated

Winks, Hayden. “When To Draft RBs In Best Ball (Updated).” May 15th, 2023. https://underdognetwork.com/football/best-ball-research/when-to-draft-rbs-in-best-ball-updated

Winks, Hayden. “When To Draft QBs In Best Ball (Updated).” Jun 6th, 2023. https://underdognetwork.com/football/news/when-to-draft-qbs-in-best-ball-updated

This article has been perfected by Dr. B Harris

Underdog Drafts

Preparing for Chaos

Imma Gonna Win!

It’s after midnight on a warm August night when you put on your sleep cap and you’re ready to start counting sheep. But before it fades to black your peace is spoiled by a rude messenger. It’s an urgent push notification from Underdog saying “You’re on the clock!.” You have 10 hours to make your selection, but since you want to sleep-in until noon it’s now or never. Justin Fields has fallen five spots past his ADP and you already have DJ Moore rostered at WR. Easy Peasy Lemon Squeezy. You click the paper-airplane icon “Draft” with a grin thinking about what you want to buy first with the $3 million prize. It isn’t long until that same messenger returns, but this time it’s AJ Dillon who now needs to be saved. Without hesitation you smash the green icon and you close your eyes wondering how you could be so lucky. It’s not until the next morning upon opening your Underdog app and wanting to relive the previous evening’s triumphs that you realize something is off. The squad you drafted Justin Fields with already had Lamar Jackson, which wouldn’t be so bad if they didn’t have the same late bye week. Damn. You quickly click through every active draft searching for your AJ Dillon team. Your worst fears are realized when you come to find Aaron Jones on your roster smiling down at his teammate a few spots below. Double Damn. It helps to be organized when competing in a tournament with 677,376 entries for $15 million in prize money. This two-part series of articles is dedicated to the groundwork and strategy behind Underdog drafts. Much of the process covered in this series can be directly applied to redraft leagues as well.

Spread Them Sheets

Like everything else in fantasy, there is an excess of factors to be cognizant of when attacking your Underdog drafts. In order to orchestrate all of these data points into a harmonious symphony, I find spreadsheets to being the most effective method of organization. Here’s how to begin building out your spreadsheet.  

Sheet 1 - The Cornerstone: Sheet 1 is the basis for all of the other sheets in your document. It is comprised of both a ‘Rankings’ section and a ‘Notes’ section. I divide the Rankings section with Overall, Round, Player, Position, Bye, and Personal Rank (optional) columns as pictured below.

The Rankings: The basis for all my rankings (dynasty, redraft, Underdog) is rooted in ADP. Managers that operate too far ahead or behind ADP take on far too much risk in outsmarting others. With millions of dollars on the line and thousands of contestants, it’s not a stretch to say that Underdog has the sharpest season-long ADP in the entire fantasy space. Overspending and negating any possible ADP edges that are pivotal in such a small-margin contest is folly. So with that said, visit https://underdogfantasy.com/lobby , go to the ‘Rankings’ tab, and press the ‘CSV download/upload’ button to receive the latest Underdog ADP. Once you have the ADP copied over to your spreadsheet, the real fun can begin!

Color Coding: In an 18 round draft that has over 200 players its pivotal to find what you need as easily as possible. At minimum I recommend color coding the Position column (I use the same color-scheme Underdog uses) and highlighting in red any player on a week 13/14 bye. Having too many players on a bye right before the playoffs can absolutely crush you, especially if you lose any players to injury throughout the course of the season that you banked on performing during these byes.

Notes Section: If you were speculating what all the different numbers and colors represented in the Rankings section, wonder no further. My Notes section comprises four different categories. Is any of this necessary? No, but I hate sleep and love needlessly grinding any possible edge I have in winning, so all of this is purely optional. 

WoRP Performance - One of the main things I look at when organzing my rankings is how well a player performed in terms of WoRP (Wins Above Replacement Player). We will dive deeper into exactly what WoRP is, but in general WoRP shows us how many more wins a player earned you in comparison to any other player. I assign a score and color to each player depending upon their previous year’s WoRP. 

Playoff Projection - Having players with the projected best matchups during the most critical stage of the tournament is a massive advantage. There isn’t much of a science to how I assign these scores to players - I simply assign a low, middle, or high score to that player’s week depending upon if the pass/rush defense they are playing was ranked in the bottom, middle, or top third of the league. Since there can be fluctuation in how defenses perform year to year, I only use this as a tiebreaker when I am on the clock and having a hard time deciding what player to draft.

Spike and Above Average Weeks - The beauty of playing in a BestBall format is capturing the peak performances players are capable of. One of my favorite ways to gauge how dominant a player was in a best ball format is to look at the number of Spike weeks (player was top 5 in points scored at their position for that week) and Above Average weeks (top 16 QB/RB, top 24 WR, top 8 TE) a player had last year. Be judicious when it comes to your player selection - draft a healthy mixture of players that can offer peak performance and/or consistency. You can easily find this data by joining South Harmon “S.H.I.T. Show” on Patreon at https://www.patreon.com/SouthHarmon.

Roster Construction - We have three years worth of data from the Best Ball Mania Tournament in which we can glean some very interesting notes on the best and worst ways to compete on Underdog. When pouring through the data it becomes apparent that there are not only certain Roster Constructions (the number of players to draft at each position) that perform better but also the ideal ranges to target different positions throughout the draft. This Roster Construction section is a snapshot of the most ideal roster, based upon both WoRP data and the amazing analysis that Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) does over at the Underdog Network. We will be taking a deeper dive into the analysis behind Roster Construction in part two of this Underdog series, which focuses on strategy. 

Sheets 2-13 - 1.01-1.12: An eternity later after you have finished scoring and color-coding each player (if you so choose), it’s now time to replicate this Cornerstone sheet into 12 more sheets. Drafting from the 1.01 position is massively different from the 1.12 slot, especially when observing ADP. If most users are drafting in respect of ADP, then it’s not too difficult to map out the players that will likely be available at each of your selections. Having each of these dedicated draft position sheets can make all the difference, especially when the draft position is an unknown until after you join the lobby.

An additional advantage to having dedicated sheets for each draft slot is potential stacking! Stacking is a strategy in which managers draft pairs of teammates - typically consisting of QB’s & their top receiving option(s). Stacking is a major emphasis in my Underdog drafts and is often in the same breath as prime playoff matchups as the greatest edge in best ball. 

I begin this process first considering which teams I would be willing to draft their respective QB (27 QB’s for me in 2023). The next step is arranging in order of ADP the QB’s fellow teammates. I then rank each stack based upon the combined scores of the QB with their top stack option; with special emphasis on the QB and the offense they operate in. This transitions into identifying which stacks are the most attainable given the first player you have to draft at ADP. There are certain stacks that are pretty much impossible to achieve without seriously reaching ahead (such as Diggs & Allen) or getting extremely lucky with a top player falling to you past ADP. However, there are plenty of stacks (such as the Kelce & Mahomes) that are definitely achievable within a certain range of draft slots.

Sheet 14 - Exposure: The following two sheets on Exposure & Active Drafts are optional given that the information can be found through the Underdog platform, but if you live on the sheet streets like I do then perhaps you’ll find this arrangement preferable as well.

First looking at Exposure, this tells you the percentage of shares you have drafted of a particular player across all of your drafts. Your exposure is strategic for the simple reason you don’t want most of your tournament hopes sinking because you couldn’t stop drafting a player and they suffer a season-ending injury. I personally don’t recommend any exposure on a player exceeding 30-35%.

Sheet 15 - Active Drafts: The final sheet displays all the rosters I am in the middle of drafting. This sheet is only worthwhile if you participate in the Slow-Draft (8 hr timer) lobbies, which is exclusively what I participate in. With the extended selection time, one can methodically map out their strategy by thinking several moves ahead and focus on a portfolio approach across all of their active drafts. If you wait till the end of the off-season, very often you can take advantage of any big news that affects ADP live during your slow-draft as an additional perk as well.

In my Active Drafts section, I track the number of Spike/Above Avg players I’ve drafted, the picks themselves, and I make heavy use of my notes section with players I want to draft with upcoming selections. The final element I focus on is my draft strategy, but we’ll save that for next time!