T-Rock 4/21/25 T-Rock 4/21/25

The Rookie Draft

Will this be the year I draft the next Jayden Daniels to turn around my dynasty team, or will I continue to struggle in the mire of mediocrity? The buildup and stakes are often overwhelming leading up to the Rookie Draft. No other event during the year quite compares to it. Many of my greatest fantasy football lessons have been tested and refined in the crucible of the rookie process. In the final installment of the Attacking The Draft series, this article will cover the wisdom and strategy for navigating the Rookie Draft. I would like to thank Mike Liu, Peter Howard, Jax Falcone, Jakob Sanderson, Scott Conner, Adam McFerran, Mike Chrystal, and many others for their knowledge and for making this article possible.

Part IV - Rookie Wisdom

Will this be the year I draft the next Jayden Daniels, or will I continue to struggle in mediocrity? No other event quite compares to the buildup and stakes of the Rookie Draft. Many of my greatest fantasy football lessons have been tested and refined in the crucible of the rookie process. In the final installment of the Attacking The Draft series, this article will cover the wisdom and strategy for the Rookie Draft. Thank you to Mike Liu, Peter Howard, Jax Falcone, Jakob Sanderson, Scott Conner, Adam McFerran, Mike Chrystal, and many others for their knowledge and for making this article possible.

Key Stats To Remember

Since 2013, on average, 2 QBs, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, & 2 TEs selected in the first 3 rounds of the NFL Draft have gone on to have at least 1 Top-12 fantasy season (during their career) per rookie class. In 2024, we had 2 QBs, 2 WRs, and 1 TE already accomplish this feat in their first season. We will likely have more players from the 2024 class break into the Top-12 in the coming seasons.

In 2023, 17 rookies broke into the top 156 best WoRP players (10.9%).

In 2024, 14 rookies made the top 156 WoRP players (9%).

(Lineup, SF, Start 10, 1 Pt TEP)

First Round Picks

Picks are extremely valuable. Either you want to field the best team in the league, OR you want to have the most picks! If you do not have the best team, aim to have three to four 1st round picks to control the draft. When you have this many first-rounders, other managers will come to you first for trades. This gives you the flexibility to trade away a pick for more future picks, trade away a pick for a veteran player, or use it to draft a rookie. If you are wondering, how do I get my hands on so many 1sts? It begins with trading back in the Startup, and actively tanking the first two to three seasons of your dynasty league.

Hogging All The Picks

It can become difficult to trade if you control eight to nine first-round rookie picks in a class. What often transpires is that the other managers with no teeth in the Rookie Draft have no future picks to offer you in a package, and their veteran players are either too expensive or too old to trade for. It gives you trade flexibility if you allow other people at the table with picks AND players they can trade. Having five to six firsts in one class is the best spot for a rebuilding team. If you love rookies to the point that you don’t care about hit rates, value loss, or trading, you can have as many First-Round picks as you want.

Do not become enamored with trying to build a super team during a rebuild, where you are flush with draft picks and go on a buying spree for older assets. The worst thing you can do is make a godfather deal and sink multiple valuable assets into one elite player, especially a WR (position isn’t scarce).

Contenders

If you're a contender with late picks in the rookie draft and doubt the prospects available to you, I would not recommend trading for veterans as your first option. Instead, during or right before the rookie draft, trade those picks away for a larger package of future picks. It’s a lot harder to know which veterans to trade for during the off-season than after the season starts, so make it easier on yourself and opt for future picks.

If you are a contender with draft picks and there's only one other contender with picks as well, trade away some of your veterans for their picks and corner the market as the only contender with picks. Tanking teams will not be able to force you into a bidding war if you are the only manager able to offer them picks for their players.

One Season Away From Contention

If you are one season away from competing (and have the depth), aim to have at least two 1sts going into your upcoming rookie draft and two 1sts for next season. Having multiple firsts to spend on young talent and trade away can be the deciding factor when making a championship run.

Popularity Contest

If you are unsure which player to select, choose the player the community likes more. Managers pay extra for these players. A good player in a difficult situation can be analytically superior, but they will be harder to trade if the community doesn't love them.

Timing

Do not flip your picks in the upcoming draft too early. After the NFL Draft is completed, you will have a better idea of the pick and its value.

If you ever trade away a pick for a player, you must be content with the investment in the player for that year and the following year. Do not trade away valuable picks for players with limited liquidity or whose days are numbered in the NFL.

Liquidity vs. Construction

With rookie picks being highly liquid (can trade them easily) and value-insulated, it can be tempting to go overboard with acquiring as much draft capital as possible. Trading away too much reliable veteran production for picks spent on rookies can be risky (considering their hit rate). While pursuing youth, these managers can easily wind up with a team half the roster size of their league-mates and be years from competing. The best rosters boast the best players and depth in their league.

If your team is multiple years away from competing, remember that RBs have the shortest shelf life in the league, followed by WRs and TEs. Be willing to trade away any skill-position player at a slight discount if it yields multiple pieces in compensation and more shots to turn your fortunes around.

How to Utilize Picks

Target the worst and most desperate managers in your league by offering them your later picks for their future picks. Bet that their future pick will be better than your current late pick. Convert two 2nd-round picks into one 1st-round pick next year. Trade back from a mid-1st to a late-1st plus a 2nd. For contending teams, these future picks will act as an emergency savings in case you need to find a replacement for a mid-season injury.

If you can’t manage to trade your draft picks for future ones, then use them to select rookies. For the prospects that hit, the rookie draft will be their cheapest cost of acquisition.

Do not trade away high draft capital for a veteran unless you love that player to death.

If you are going to make a trade, make sure to consult Startup ADP. It is critical to receive the proper compensation based on startup value!

Hierarchy of Positions

Generational Talents

Prospects with historic analytics and play at a level that you have never seen before are the highest priority, regardless of the position they play.

Quarterback

The young elite QB is the most valuable position in SuperFlex dynasty leagues. A highly regarded prospect will maintain their value for a full year, even if they fall short of expectations during their rookie campaign. Their value insulation is the best of all positions because of their production ceiling and the scarcity of the position. Only in the event of a historically bad season will a rookie QB lose significant dynasty value.

Wide Receiver

In 2024, running backs were king because of their production. But for better or worse, wide receivers are still being selected higher in dynasty startups. This is mainly due to their perceived longevity and spike weeks in production. For years, the NFL has been a passing league, elevating the WR position to new heights. With so little consistency at the position, the elite wide receivers are second only to the elite QBs.

Running Back

With a historic 2024 rushing season and a generational class in 2025, the NFL and fantasy could be in the midst of an RB renaissance. The elite rushers are consistent and produce at a high level well into their second and sometimes third contract. The best RBs have versatility as pass-catching weapons and the toughness to punch in TDs on the goal line. Best of all, RBs have the highest likelihood of a Breakout year (Top 12-24 RB) during their rookie season of all positions and have a much higher hit rate compared to QBs and WRs.

Tight End

In Tight End Premium leagues with 0.75-1 point premiums in scoring, or Start 2 TEs Leagues, prospects can be confidently drafted if they boast elite athleticism and high NFL Draft capital. Tight Ends own the highest hit rate in the first and second rounds of rookie drafts amongst all positions. But unless all of these conditions can be met, it's preferable to prioritize the other positions in the first and second rounds and target TEs in the later parts of your draft.

Very Important Caveat

The hierarchy can change based on the most talented group of an incoming rookie class. Always prioritize the strength of a class. The NFL is brutal, where only the best survive in the league and dynasty. If you draft a quarterback or wide receiver that doesn’t pan out, it doesn’t matter how important their position is if their value eventually goes to zero. Draft the very best, regardless of their position.

Rookie Team Situations

A lot can go wrong with rookies. No matter how talented a player is, their teammates, coaches, and organization dictate A LOT of how productive they will be.

A quarterback is affected by their environment more than any other position. This is especially true of Pocket-Passers, who need a strong offensive line for protection and an arsenal of playmakers to distribute the ball. For this reason, the Konami-Code QB that can run and pass is the most valuable player in dynasty. The mental acumen required to compete in the NFL is immense, and the jump in competition level from college is massive. Stay away from prospects that go to dysfunctional situations.

Rookie RBs eviscerate the value of their veteran teammates if they are more talented. However, if those vets endear themselves to the coaches with certain skills the younger backs don't have, the seasoned player will stick around and eat into the opportunities.

The WR position differs from RBs in that a veteran can coexist with a talented rookie without too much effect on production. With the high passing volume in the NFL, and teams operating with multiple WR sets on most plays, multiple WRs can eat on an offense. Don’t waste picks on WRs ranked outside the top 8-10.

Outside of the TEs taken in the First Round of the NFL Draft, it is unlikely for a rookie TE to start and produce in year 1. Drafting a TE ranked outside of the top 2 is a wait-and-see game.

The Dossier

Image created by DK

T-Rock 4/9/25 T-Rock 4/9/25

Auction Drafts

There’s nothing more American than an Auction Draft. In an auction, you can draft whoever you want and construct however you want. You want your favorite player? Great, you can have him. You don’t feel like drafting for a while? Fuck it, go get sauced at the pub. That’s the problem with Snake Drafts. In a traditional draft, everything is given to you in an orderly fashion. In an Auction, no one gives it to you. You have to take it. This style of drafting rewards preparation, experience, and strategy in a way Snake Drafts never come close to. Similar to poker, the main focus of the Auction is reading and manipulating your opponent, making it the World Series of Drafting. The only downside is managing a budget, which can be problematic for someone who never looks at price tags. But don’t worry, you don’t need an Accounting degree from Cambridge to draft a team. By the end of this article, you’ll understand the Cardinal Rules of drafting and hopefully wake up to see what you’ve been missing with Auctions.

Part III - Texas Draft’em

You know what I like about restaurants? You can learn a lot, watching things eat.

Costello - The Departed

The American Dream

The First Cardinal Rule

The first cardinal rule of auction drafts is preparation. Having your rankings, plans for roster construction, and budgets ahead of time will inform you if the player up for bid is worth chasing or folding on. It begins with setting a budget.

How To Set A Budget

Set your budget based on WoRP. With WoRP, you’ll know the hierarchy of different positions to target. With this in mind, set a budget of 23-21% for the highest tier of players at the most valuable position, 19-17% for the top players at the 2nd most valuable position, 16-14% for the best tier at the 3rd best position, and 13-11% for the best players at the least consequential position. From there, set a lower budget for the subsequent tiers at each position.

I hate to break it to ya, but you can’t afford multiple Tier 1 players. Don’t be a freakin’ idiot and spend 23% for Lamar Jackson, 19% for Ja’Marr Chase, and have 42% of your funds allocated to only two players. The rest of your roster will be trash.

The First Chip To Fall

After you set your tiers and budgets, the most important thing to pay attention to is the Market Defining Players. Once a player like Josh Allen, Justin Jefferson, Bijan Robinson, Brock Bowers, or any of the other elite players in their tiers is claimed, their price has set the market. Once this happens, you have to decide if you’re comfortable with the market price, or if you would rather wait to operate at a possible cheaper price in a lower tier.

Going Over Budget

If the price exceeds your Max Bid allocation, Stay Away! Any time you decide to bid on a player that is ABOVE your budget, you HAVE to lower your budget for another position accordingly. So if you bid 3% more than what you had budgeted at QB to land Jayden Daniels, you have to subtract 3% from another position. Any time you go over budget, you are sacrificing one tier of players for every 2-3% you go over budget.

The inverse is true as well. Claiming a player at a cheaper price gives you the flexibility to outbid other managers on critical players or claim multiple players in higher tiers.

The Second Cardinal Rule

The second cardinal rule is tracking the other managers. With most of your hard work completed before the auction begins, you are freed up to focus on managing your opponents.

Reading Your Opponents

You can read another manager’s cards with their bids, how much funds they have left, the player pool available, and what they have left to fill on their roster. It’s for this reason I advocate for slow auctions. You only have time to focus on sticking to your budget in fast auctions. Anticipating the other managers’ next move and disrupting their plans is why Auction is 10 times more satisfying than a standard draft.

The Third Cardinal Rule

The overall goal of an auction draft is to deplete your opponent's funds on players that you DON’T want so that you can outspend the other managers on the players you DO want. That is why the third cardinal rule, and the most fun, is sabotage.

The First Moves

To get the ball rolling, the elite players are often the first ones up for bid for two reasons: A) They define the market price for their position. B) They also exhaust the most significant chunk of funds from managers. The less money a manager has, the less influence and power they have on the draft. If you love Puka Nacua and BTJ, nominate players like Chase, Jefferson, Lamb, ARSB, and Nabers first. This forces the hands of the other managers to deplete large sums of auction dollars for players you care less about.

The Biggest Tell

If a manager is constantly the highest bidder on a player, chances are they want that player. Armed with this assumption, it’s critical not to allow other managers to get away with winning a key player below market price. This is known as a “steal.” If Josh Allen is up for bid, and he’s going for less than a previous won bid of Lamar Jackson, it's pivotal that you drive up the price to be level with Lamar’s if you're confident the other manager will continue to call your bid. If they call your bluff, your consolation is Josh Allen at market price. The best advantage is knowing the other manager LOVES the player up for bid and depleting their piggy bank further by pushing them past their comfort zone.

The Fourth Cardinal Rule

My fourth cardinal rule is to remain in the top two of funds throughout the draft. With this spending power, you can be involved and influence the entire Auction. If you’re active throughout the draft and bid on most players, including players you don’t want, other managers will have difficulty reading your intentions. To help mask your plans, I recommend waiting until the initial flurry of bids on a particular player dies down before casting your first bid. Force it to become a 2-3 horse race between you and the other manager(s), driving the price up to the market for that tier and perhaps even past it if you’re bold.

With spending power, you can force the hands of others, land the players you want, and achieve the critical depth for your roster. Speaking from experience, you do not want to be the team with 3 studs and 27 duds.

The Fifth Cardinal Rule

The final cardinal rule is patience. In the typical auction draft, four to six of the top players at each position go off the board, along with 75% of the funds from half of the managers. With so many managers now having to watch the Auction from the sideline, there’s less competition for the players still left. With less competition, there’s a higher likelihood for “steals” the longer a draft goes on. There’s nothing more gut-wrenching than seeing a top player sneak their way to the end of the auction and be won by another manager at a fraction of the market cost.

But keep in mind, the longer a draft goes on, the more scarce certain positions become. This is especially important in SuperFlex leagues. You don’t want to be the manager who was too stingy to bid on any Tier 1 or 2 QB, and instead you pay Tier 1 prices for a Tier 4 or 5 QB out of desperation before the position dried up. You can avoid this by staying involved in as many bids throughout the draft. It’s better to be stuck with a higher tier player at market price that you don’t love than stuck with a bottom tiered player you hate. Auctions are won by being frugal and selective, not cheap and hesitant.

No More Pencils, No More Books

In life, there are always the haves and the have-nots. The have-nots have been told “draft him,” “sell him,” “buy this,” or “subscribe to that.” If you go for that sort of thing, I don't know what to do for you. The haves make their own way. No one gives it to you. You have to take it. Non Serviam. When you decide to be something, you can be it. That's what they don't tell you. You don’t have to be a product of your environment. Make your environment a product of you.

The Dossier

Image created by DK

T-Rock 3/30/25 T-Rock 3/30/25

The Trade Chart

The Startup Draft sets the tone for the league. From the onset, those with a champion mindset want to pursue every advantage they can. Trading during the Startup is one way contenders separate themselves from the rest of the league. Trading up at a value for a cornerstone player or trading back to accumulate assets are great paths toward imposing your will on the league. All juggernaut teams are conceived during the Startup Draft. This article will explain how you can navigate through the frenzy of the draft and position your team for future success.

Part II - Take It or Leave It

Things to Remember

The best trades are often the ones you don't make - There are so many trades we wish we could take back, and there are many other deals we look back on that we're grateful never came to fruition. Unless you love the trade, don't go through with it.

Prep - To get the most out of this article, it is essential to do some prep beforehand. A great place to start is with Part I of this series, Snake Draft Checklist. But at the very least, it is pivotal that you map out your favorite and least favorite rounds of the draft based on consensus ADP. There is no point to a Trade Back Chart if you don't know what rounds you want to capitalize on and which you want to avoid.

Let It Be Known - Right before the draft kicks off, declare in the chat, “If anyone wants to trade during the draft, come to me first!” You want to communicate that you’re open to trading and have come prepared to make the deal as painless as possible.

KEYNOTE—The following charts are a starting place for your trading considerations. You want to use these as a framework based on the rounds you’re targeting to avoid being exploited through improper compensation.

KEYNOTE—About the Startup Values Chart, it is important to remember that these values are an approximation. When you trade a pick away, you are also trading away the “player” that could have been selected at that spot (e.g., if you trade away the 1.01, you are trading away Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, or Jayden Daniels). So make sure that your compensation for the pick you are trading away is equal to the value of that player.

When Trading…

The first four rounds are the most important of the Startup Draft. If you trade in these rounds, be sure to have at least two rounds of selections at your disposal before you decide to trade away another pick (e.g., if you trade away your 1st, do not trade away your 2nd or 3rd).
Do not trade away any picks in consecutive rounds through rounds 5-8 (e.g., if you trade away your 5th, do not trade away your 6th).
After round 8, feel free to trade in consecutive rounds (e.g., if you trade away your 9th, you may also trade away your 10th).
Do not ever trade back more than 2 consecutive rounds (e.g., if you trade away your 11th, DO NOT trade away your 12th and 13th as well).

Do not trade away more picks than what you receive back in compensation (i.e., do not send away 3 picks to get only 2 picks back).
Pay attention to what part of the round the picks are located (i.e., is their selection in the beginning with slots 1-4, the middle with 5-8, or at the end with 9-12).

If the pick you are sending away is early (slots 1-4), then ask if the last pick in your compensation package can be moved up (e.g., if you trade away the 1.01, instead of asking for their 2nd, 4th, and 8th in return, ask for their 2nd, 4th, and 7th as compensation).

The Dossier

Image created by DK

T-Rock 3/19/25 T-Rock 3/19/25

Snake Draft Checklist

Keep in mind that your drafted team isn’t your FINAL team. Your roster could look significantly different by the end of the season if you’re active in free agency and trading for players.

But at the end of the day, this is your team and the one you’re taking into battle. So draft the players you’re willing to get in a bunker with and Unleash Hell!

Part I - Unleashing Hell

Brothers, what we do in life... echoes in eternity.

Maximus - Gladiator

Before The Draft

Portfolios

Diversification is Key when you Play in Multiple Leagues

Keep track of your players’ exposure rate across all leagues.

Would not recommend rostering a player worth a 2nd+ on more than 40% of your leagues in case of possible injury.

Create a List of your Favorite Players

List the top players in the draft in tiers ranging from your Favorite to Least Favorite.

Track the number of shares you have of each player. Aim to acquire more of your favorite players and avoid your least favorite.

Resources

Create your Rankings for 13-15 Rounds

Rank your players within tiers to aid with possible trade-back scenarios.

Do not go nuts putting players in tiers that differ widely from consensus.

This may become an issue during a trade where the compensation you seek doesn’t align with your trade partner’s value of the player.

Create a roadmap, knowing ahead of time:

Each tier's location on the Draft Board
Where the best rounds are
Where the worst rounds are
Where the gaps are at each position

Have the Consensus ADP Rankings Open

Most people draft based on consensus ADP.

Have it open to anticipate your league mates’ moves.

Consult Roster Construction and WoRP

Create a checklist based on your league’s recommended Roster Construction
Prioritize the positions with the highest WoRP advantage in your league

In The Draft

ADP

Respect the ADP Market

Don’t be too high or too low on players.

Do not select a player more than a few spots ahead or behind ADP in the First Round

This ADP gap will increase as the draft progresses - By the Fourth Round, you may be willing to take someone a whole round earlier or later than ADP recommends.

Pick A Direction

After Round 4, Decide if your Team is Primed to Compete in Year 1 or Later

Choose the path of least resistance

If more than half of your league is constructed to Win-Now, prioritize acquiring younger assets with upside and trading back to amass draft capital (or vice versa).

Draft a Healthy Mixture of Players

Drafting all rookies is a risky venture considering their hit rates.
Drafting all older players for the sake of winning now is also very risky if they underperform or get hurt.
The best strategy is to draft a mix of players with high upside and/or a track record of high production.

Tie-Breakers

Consider Both Player’s Market Sentiment

Who will be easier to trade?

You take on a lot of risk if you are higher on a player no one else is.

You may not be able to trade them away if the player underperforms.

Do Not Buy Into Players Whose Value Has Increased Based Upon Hype

Do not draft players at their peak ADP.

It’s better to wait and see if the player can be acquired for cheaper later on than pay a premium.

Players Who Fall

These players can be a massive value or a falling knife you want to avoid.

It is more difficult to trade away players your leaguemates skip over in the draft.

Diversification

If you are debating between two players in the same tier, draft the player you have lower exposure to.

Do not draft players in a lower tier for the sake of your portfolio.

Do Not Chase After Rookies

Rookie Hype can cloud your judgment to the point you overextend your resources to acquire more shares of them.

About 3/4 of all rookies will lose value after their first year; acquire them in year 2.

Risky Players

Avoid players on a downward trajectory following a disappointing season.
Avoid players close to the end or past their peak years of production.

Keep in mind that your drafted team isn’t your FINAL team. Your roster could look significantly different by the end of the season if you’re active in free agency and trading for players.

But at the end of the day, this is your team and the one you’re taking into battle. So draft the players you’re willing to get in a bunker with and Unleash Hell!

The Dossier

Image created by DK

T-Rock 1/22/25 T-Rock 1/22/25

Playoff Odds & Strategy

We’ve all seen it before. One minute your team is sweeping across the league like a tidal wave. The next minute, you’re down by 20 points with only Rico Dowdle left to play. Then it hits you “I’m fucked.” All of that hard work and success over the last four months has turned to shit, ready to be flushed. Panic creeps up your spine and you remember Switch’s last words from the Matrix, “Not like this. Not like this.”

Part II - Trades

Milton - “What were my words to you? Maybe it was your time to lose. You didn't think so.”

Kevin - “Lose? I don't lose! I win! I win! I'm a lawyer! That's my job, that's what I do!”

Milton - “I rest my case. Vanity is definitely my favorite sin. Kevin, it's so basic, self-love; the all-natural opiate. You know, it's not that you didn't care for Mary Ann, Kevin. It's just that you were a little bit more involved with someone else: yourself.”

John Milton - The Devil's Advocate

Free Will, It Is A Bitch

“T-Rock sent me another trade request late last night,” Kevin began.

“Was he drunk?” Milton asked.

“With his team shitting the bed, probably.”

“T-Rock’s got himself in trouble again,” Milton said. “And he wants me to save his playoff hopes. Only this time, I can't.”

“T-Rock, T-Rock,” Milton continued. “I nursed him through Twitter scandals, a Wild Turkey rehab, and failed investments into meme coin. God's special creature? I've warned him, Kevin. Like a fat guy at a buffet, he can’t help himself.”

“Take a good look because he's the poster child for the next generation of fantasy players. These people, it's no mystery why they act like this. You sharpen their appetite for rookies to the point where they can split atoms with their hype. You bombard them with analytics until their egos are the size of stadiums. You hold their hand through every trade and roster crisis. You grease their brains with gold-plated content until even the dullest dynasty players become aspiring GMs. Becomes his own god!”

“But as they’re scrambling from one deal to the next, who's got their eye on the roster? The IR is at capacity, the roster is ancient, and the breakouts never come. It’s buy draft picks, sell draft picks, but you have nothing to sell or buy with! We got a billion T-Rocks all at the dinner table, ready to order their pristine prospects to pair with their elite constructions, trying to buy a title run. Then the dinner bill comes. Championships were never on the menu. You have to pay up, Rock. You can’t orphan your team now. You're screaming in the Discord for someone to help. But guess what? There's no one there! You're all alone, Rock. You're God's special little creature.”

Deal With The Devil

Refusing to accept the Fates, you frantically place some of your best players OUT with injury on the Trade Block. With only one person responding, you desperately trade away your picks and players, praying for a miracle. Instead, things end badly for you. Game Over.

This reoccurring nightmare is all too common in the fantasy playoffs. Having already examined Seeding and Scoring in Part I of this series, Playoff Odds & Strategy, we now shift our focus to Part II - Playoff Trading.

Playoff Trades

The data for this research comes from 25 seasons of dynasty playoffs, including 12 playoffs from Lineup leagues and 13 from Best Ball leagues. Every league has 12 teams, and 4/12 Lineup seasons come from a one-QB league.

I limited my sample of trades to the teams that were ALIVE in the playoffs and had money to play for (a Top 2-3 finish, depending on league payouts). If a team was eliminated during the playoffs or the parties with no monetary stakes to play for, I did not include the trade in my sample.

The trades in my sample were limited to two windows: If the league had a Trade Deadline, I only included the Week Before and the Week Of the deadline (two weeks). If the league had No Deadline, I began my sample the week before the dynasty playoffs (Wk. 14) and included all trades throughout the playoffs for all ALIVE teams.

I considered several factors when evaluating trades:

The points scored by the newly acquired players
The points scored by the players the manager traded away
What impact, if any, did the trade make on the outcome of the playoff matchup

There were a total of 56 trades that I analyzed amongst the Seeding sample:

1st Seed - 12 trades

2nd Seed - 12 trades

3rd Seed - 8 trades

4th Seed - 8 trades

5th Seed - 7 trades

6th Seed - 9 trades

52 trades in the Points Sample (Only teams that made the playoffs have their trades included in this sample, and the top-scoring teams did not always make the playoffs):

1st Points For - 11 trades

2nd Points For - 9 trades

3rd Points For - 10 trades

4th Points For - 7 trades

5th Points For - 7 trades

6th Points For - 8 trades

Main Takeaways

Of the 56 trades, 46 trades had zero impact on the outcome of the playoffs (82.14%)

Of these 46 trades, the most common patterns include:

In 8 of these trades, the managers would have won regardless of the trade. The other 38 trades did no favors for their managers
In 10 of these trades, most of the players they traded for either didn’t make their lineup at all in Best Ball leagues or completely shit the bed in Lineup leagues
8 of these trades were for the future (the player was either hurt or not playing at all)
2 of these trades were only for depth purposes (the players didn’t even start)
In 1 of these trades, the manager would have scored more with their original players but luckily still won despite their trade

In 2 instances, I deemed the trade as a 50/50 deal

In one instance, the manager lost by ½ a pt, where 3/5 players they traded for didn’t even make the lineup in a Best Ball league. Brutal.
In the other instance, the manager would have scored more points and made it to the Final if they hadn’t done the trade in Week 16, but they needed the trade if they wanted to win the Final. Hard to fault them for that.

Finally, 8 trades did have a major impact on Winnings/Championship (14.29%).

In 4 cases, the manager needed the trade to get through Round 1/2 of the Playoffs and into the Championship where they could win money, but ultimately still lost.
In 2 brutal instances, the manager would have won the Championship with the original starting players they traded away.
In only 2 cases (3.58%) a trade had a direct impact on securing a Title!

In the first case, the previously mentioned manager who lost by ½ a point lost to the eventual Champion. Their trade for K. Allen & C. Rush came absolutely clutch in Week 16 of the 2024 playoffs.
The second case is perhaps the most impressive. This manager right before the Final executed 5 trades. He traded away:
25 1st, 26 2nd, J. Hurts, AJ Brown, 27 3rd, 25 4th, R. Dowdle, 26 1st, 25 2nd, 27 2nd, J. Bobo, and J. Brooks
FOR
G. Kittle, B. Nix, P. Nacua, Z. Ertz, O. Zaccheaus, 25 5th, M. Evans, D. Henry, A. Abdullah, and I. Likely

The Result:

An astounding 8/9 players he traded for made his lineup, scoring 154.4 more points than the original players he traded away/players on his bench that would have otherwise made his lineup
The manager won the championship by 97.56 points and scored the highest total in league history
That manager was me

Sheep Amidst The Wolves

Losing in the playoffs can be heartbreaking, but losing after trading away your future can be devastating. This research is far from Gospel - I am limited to a data sample that only includes my leagues. But even if you had access to every league on Sleeper, it would be impossible to assess the effectiveness of trades on such a scale. If there is only a few major things you took away from this article, it should be these:

The odds of a playoff trade helping you secure a Championship are extremely slim.

If you making a trade, wait until the Final and be sure your newly acquired assets have value going into next season if you lose.

Trust in the team that got you this far without meddling with it too much.

With so many playoff matches ending in double-digit wins/losses, changing the outcome through a trade is nearly impossible. With a flash of fire and smoke, your leaguemates manifest themselves as demons with pitchforks and contracts, waiting to strike a lopsided deal at your most vulnerable moment. Some may be tempted to make a Faustian bargain at the expense of their soul, but these deals usually end very badly. Accept the cards you're dealt if you're destined to lose. Save your picks for where they matter most and draft the next Jayden Daniels, Malik Nabers, or other godsent rookies at the most affordable price they’ll ever be - The Rookie Draft.

The Dossier

Image created by DK

T-Rock 1/21/25 T-Rock 1/21/25

Playoff Odds & Strategy

The overwhelming sentiment during the playoffs is to leave no stone unturned when chasing a Championship. Move heaven and earth if you must, but do not finish the season with regret wondering, “Could I have done more?” But how often do you go “All-In,” mortgaging your entire future by trading away valuable picks and players, only to be bounced early in the playoffs? These trades inevitably define your roster for the next few seasons and with no draft capital they can be almost impossible to dig out of.

Part I - Standings & Points

Three Questions

The overwhelming sentiment during the playoffs is to leave no stone unturned when chasing a Championship. Move heaven and earth if you must, but do not finish the season with regret wondering, “Could I have done more?” But how often do you go all-in, mortgaging your future by trading away valuable picks and players, only to be bounced early in the playoffs? These trades inevitably define your roster for the next few seasons and with no draft capital they can be almost impossible to dig out of.

Trades are only a piece of the jumbled puzzle. I used to believe having the highest-scoring team mattered more in the playoffs than a top seed. But with so much variance, injuries, and teams getting hot at the right time, I now have doubts.

The purpose of this research is to gain a better understanding of three major components of the Fantasy Playoffs:

Is there a strong correlation between Playoff Seeding and where a team Finishes?
Does Seeding matter more than Regular Season scoring?
How often do Playoff Trades make an impact?

Many dynasty players may take issue with this research, saying “Hindsight is 20/20,” “Don’t play the odds because you never know,” “Leave nothing to chance,” and “You can’t predict the future based on the past.” And all these managers would be right. But none of these managers have to suffer through fixing my roster if I sell out to win and lose. Every decision in life can be boiled down to a cost/benefit analysis. We can make better decisions if we understand our odds and what we stand to lose.

Note - You may notice that the Odds do not always add up to 100% in the Points For sample as they do with the Seeds. That is because there are multiple occasions where the Top-6 scoring teams did not make the playoffs, and thus did not have a Top-6 Finish.

1st

As expected, the 1st Seed has the highest average finish for both Lineup and Best Ball leagues at 2.17 and 1.92 respectively. Other major takeaways include:

1st Seeds finished Top-2 in lineup leagues 75% of the time in the sample.

But only 25% of these teams finished 1st in Lineup.

The 46.15% 1st Place Finish is the second highest odds in Best Ball leagues.

The only other more likely outcome was the 53.85% odds 6th Seed teams have for finishing in 6th Place.

In terms of Points For, the 41.67% odds of the Highest Scoring team finishing 2nd is the highest in the Points For sample.
The Highest Scoring team was just as likely to finish 2nd as they were 1st Place in Best Ball.
In Lineup leagues, both the #1 & #2 Scoring teams have a 3.08 average finish.

2nd

The 2nd Seed had a better finish for both Lineup and Best Ball leagues at 2.83 and 2.69 respectively compared to the 2nd Highest Scoring team, which on average finished at 3.08 and 3.23 in Lineup and Best Ball leagues. Other major takeaways include:

2nd Seed teams finished 4th at a whopping 41.67% in Lineup leagues and 3rd place in Best Ball at 38.46%
Overall, Seeding matters more than Scoring for the #2 teams

The #2 Scoring teams have a wide range of outcomes and are comparable to teams that are 3rd in Points For

3rd

Third-place teams are the Evil Twin (exact opposite) of Second-place teams - the 3rd Highest Scoring Teams finished better on average at 2.91 compared to the 3rd Seed teams, which finished on average at 3.35. Other major takeaways include:

The 3rd Highest Scoring team surprisingly finished better than the 2nd Highest in Lineup leagues and Best Ball.
Both 3rd Seeds & Points For have the highest odds of securing a Championship in the entire sample, at 33.33%

With rosters that are often comparable to the Top 2 teams, their path to a Championship includes an easy 6th Seed matchup and coin-flip 2nd Seed match. Once in the Final Round, anything can happen.

4th

We see the first major dropoff in both Seeding and Scoring when it comes to the Fourth Placed Teams. The 4th Seed teams finished at 4.18 compared to the 4th Highest Scoring teams, which finished on average at 4.8. Other major takeaways include:

Regardless of Seeding or Scoring, the 4th Place team finished in the bottom half of the playoffs 72% of the time, not great.

5th

On average, 5th Placed teams performed better in the playoffs compared to 4th Place, with an average finish of 4.05 for 5th Seeds and 3.88 finish for the 5th Highest Scorers. Other major takeaways include:

5th Seed teams are doomed for a bottom-half finish in Best Ball leagues with an astounding 92.31% odds of ending the season in 4th-6th place

6th

Finally, the 6th Seed teams faired better in the playoffs with an average finish of 4.61 compared to the 6th Highest Scoring team, who finished at 5.21 on average. Other major takeaways include:

6th Seed teams in Best Ball leagues finish 6th Place 53.85% of the time, the highest odds in the entire sample of research.
The 6th Best Teams have it brutal in Lineup leagues.

No 6th Seed ever brought home a championship in Lineup.
The 6th Highest Scoring teams never made it to the Final Round

Main Takeaways

The Top 2 Seeds and Highest Scoring Teams are the most predictable and have the highest odds of finishing in the Top 2

Having a bye-week is so critical

3rd Place teams are very dangerous in lineup leagues

Variance may have kept them from securing a bye-week in the regular season, but these are typically strongly constructed teams with one of the easiest roads to a Chip.

Not much differentiates 4th-6th Seeded Teams as far as odds in the playoffs

However, there is much more variance when comparing the 4th-6th Highest scoring teams

Outside of the #1 Team, the 6th Seed & Points For team is the most predictable, finishing 5th or 6th 52-68% of the time

Playoff Trades

Come back for Part II.

Conclusion

When I have the #1 Seed or the highest-scoring team, I feel entitled to a Championship! Experience, research, and sound strategy can take your team far in the regular season. But in the playoffs, variance can be a heartless bitch. Similarly, humans know how to build a space shuttle that can launch off the ground and into the Earth’s atmosphere. However, with the unpredictable nature of space travel, unforeseen events and Murphy’s Law can quickly take over. The fantasy playoffs are Murphy’s Law at its finest.

I’ve had Juggernauts go down in their first game after a bye and I’ve had tanking teams barely make the playoffs and run the gauntlet for a title (because I’m bad at losing). Our pursuit of improvement as fantasy players shouldn’t be defined purely by winning. If it is, you’re in for a lot of heartache. Instead, our pursuit should be a better understanding of the game and an openness to its possibilities.

Murphy's law doesn't mean that something bad will happen. It means that whatever *can* happen, will happen

Cooper - Interstellar

The Dossier

Image created by DK