What If He Could Be THE ONE?
Rookie Research For The 2024 Class - Part II
Like sifting sand through a screen, we sift people.
Reverend Mother Mohiam - Dune
The Secret Society of Scouts
As a powerful ancient order, the Scouts’ influence on steering NFL franchises can not be measured due to their shadow of secrecy. Carefully analyzing thousands of prospects across hundreds of schools, they meticulously develop a network of informants that spans the entire world of football. Being worthy of such responsibility requires great sacrifice and time discipline. For nine months straight and 16 hours a day, scouts dedicate themselves to travel and gathering intel, enduring great monotony and isolation. It is arguably the most difficult and important position in the NFL. Driving this group is one simple maxim they live by: We don't hope, we plan. And their plans are measured over many years in case their prospects fail their promise. Their power comes from the ability to breach space and time as they look to the past to help their organizations into a better future.
Researching the craft and dedication of NFL Scouts was nothing short of awe-inspiring. Assigned to a region of the country, college scouts are responsible for evaluating 300 to 400 draft-eligible players. They must travel to every school with NFL-worthy talent regardless of how many and far apart those schools are. Only 1.6% of draft-eligible players (257/16,000+) will be selected with the precious few picks most teams have. This intense process begins with breaking down the film because nothing translates better to success in the NFL than what a player does in pads. But the biggest secret behind the success of a scout comes from their ability to see things beneath the surface of a prospect. The process becomes an extremely comprehensive interview. The biggest difference between the NFL world and Fantasy Football is how much scouts weigh a player’s fit for their teams and the brand of football they want to build. This comes down to how a player fits a specific role. A player has to fit what a team is already doing or the team has to be willing to adapt to a player’s strengths and weaknesses. Talented and productive players will fall to the dismay of fantasy managers if they don’t fit exactly what NFL teams seek. But the payoff for scouts after a long journey is standing on the table, fighting to draft a player they believe in, and seeing that prospect help them win games. So what can we learn from NFL Scouts to improve our rookie evaluations?
Veterans of the Psychic Wars
Though my wife would argue otherwise, I do not devote the same amount of ungodly hours to researching prospects, nor do I have the same level of access scouts have. But the journey to developing my process began where all scout’s stories end - The NFL Draft.
For a long time, my favorite day of the year wasn’t Christmas, my birthday, or even the Super Bowl. It was getting wings with my older brother at Eddie George’s in the heart of Ohio State campus on High Street during the NFL Draft. Once a year, all of our knowledge came to a head with an epic three-hour showdown of who could best place themselves in the shoes of NFL decision-makers. But ultimately, it was a test for the gifting of prophecy. Through these years of hard-fought mental battles with my brother, my football senses were trained and tested. This process and my views have evolved, but in essence, haven’t changed.
My rookie research can be broken down into four categories:
College Production: The process begins with what a rookie did in college under the simple guise that a player who couldn't perform highly at the college level has a snowball’s chance in hell at surviving in the pros. We will get into soon what exactly this looks like.
Athletic Testing: “Athleticism may be more than enough in college, but it isn’t enough in the NFL. Everyone in the NFL is the best of the best.” - Daniel Jeremiah. A prospect’s ability is best measured through watching their tape because football is what they dedicate themselves to performing at a high level.
Draft Capital: Draft capital is useful in the same way dynasty startup ADP is useful - it reflects how A LOT of people value a player. A player passed on by all 32 organizations multiple times and falls to day 3 says something. I do not advocate going against ADP or challenging the process of NFL teams when the stakes are high. I advocate the willingness to go out on a limb when the risk is low.
Landing Spot: The final component of my rookie process is the one I am pushing myself the most on learning. Some of the best-projected prospects failed on Sunday because their teams lacked the resources and understanding of who they were as players to help them succeed. This component goes beyond looking at depth charts, supporting casts, and schemes. It’s about vision for a player. The vision for these prospects begins with scouts.
“Scouting is about elimination as much as discovery.” - Alan Wolking
In the previous article, I discussed keeping an eye out for prospects with special traits, recognizing which organizations have a reputation for getting the best out of their players and paying attention to the coverage of NFL War Rooms. Regardless of whether you utilize these edges, it’s essential to remember that NFL teams are working with the same baseline of college production for these prospects as we are.
A good process goes beyond production, testing, and projections. There is no magic bullet, no predictive metric, or any measure of certainty. At best, we have strong guesses and ranges of likelihoods. Grading is putting together a puzzle where you can barely make out the picture on the box. But this reality doesn’t diminish our pursuit to sharpen our practices. The main goal is to see things others are not seeing because ultimately we want a competitive edge where we can benefit massively from low-risk bets.
To sift through rookie prospects, my research involves 70+ metrics, but since I wish to spare my readers from being waterboarded with dry data, we will only focus on the key categories for each position.
Unsung Heroes
My spreadsheets are populated by every offensive prospect invited to the Senior Bowl, Shrine Bowl, and Scouting Combine. The majority of stats in my process have been informed by Mike Liu (@MiKeMeUpP), Drew Osinchuk (@DFBeanCounter), Peter Howard (@pahowdy), Jake Estes (@dynasty_jake), Ian Miller (@dynasty_im), and Jacob Sanderson (@JakobSanderson). But missing from my approach to rookies was understanding the various “whys” behind football that can only be understood through watching film. I am at the very beginning of my journey into the X’s & O’s and the context behind schemes, so I am leaning on the expertise of J.T. O’Sullivan (@jt_osullivan), Lanze Zierlein (@LanceZierlein), Steve Smith Sr. (@SteveSmithSr89), Brett Kollmann (@BrettKollmann), Noah Hills (@noahmoreparties), Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks), and Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB).
Before I began my research, I wanted to know how well the metrics I used for rookies translated to finding the top fantasy performers (PPG) already in the NFL from 2023. Here is what I found with what I am calling Premium Metrics:
Quarterbacks (the elite tier is out of 14 QBs because of the three-way tie for 12th in PPG last season)
QBR: 9/14 of the highest-scoring QBs in fantasy (64.29%) had the best QBRs in the NFL in 2023. Jayden Daniels (95.6), Bo Nix (91.2), and J.J. McCarthy (88.2) have the best QBRs in this year’s class.
PFF Passing Grade: 8/14 (57.14%) of NFL QBs last season. Bo Nix (92.7), Jayden Daniels (92), and Michael Penix Jr. (90.6) have the top passer ratings according to PFF.
aDOT: 8/14 (57.14%) of 2023 NFL QBs. Michael Penix Jr. (11.4), Michael Pratt (11.1), Drake Maye (11), and Devin Leary (11) have the highest aDOT.
Rushing TDs: 9/14 (64.29%) of last year’s top fantasy QBs. Caleb Williams (11), Jayden Daniels (10), and Drake Maye (9) have the most rushing TDs.
J.T. O’Sullivan: Caleb Williams (1st), Jayden Daniels (2nd), J.J. McCarthy (3rd)
From a Scout’s perspective, accuracy, decision-making, and poise are the bedrock of every QB evaluation according to Daniel Jeremiah. Other factors include play-making ability, operating outside the structure of a play when it breaks down, pre-snap recognition, and manipulating defenses.
Running Backs
Routes/g: 8/12 of the top fantasy RBs (66.67%) had the most routes/g in the NFL in 2023. Emani Baily (24), Bucky Irving (23.6), and Rasheen Ali (21.3) lead all rookie RBs.
Target Share: 7/12 (58.33%) of the best fantasy RBs led their position in TGT%. Frank Gore Jr. (9.9%), Rasheen Ali (9.7%), and George Holani (9.4%) are the top target earners in this class.
Dominator: 7/12 (58.33%) of veteran RBs last season. Ray Davis (19.9%), Frank Gore Jr. (14.8%), and Keilan Robinson (10.3%) have the highest dominator among RB prospects.
Evaded Tackles/g: 7/12 (58.33%). Unfortunately, I could not find this stat tracked amongst college athletes, so I settled for the next best thing with Missed Forced Tackles/g. Kimani Vidal (6.75), Jonathan Brooks (6.3), and Emani Bailey (5.83) lead this category.
Snap Share: 8/12 (66.67%). Once again, I could not find this metric for rookie prospects, so I compromised using Carry Share. Kimani Vidal (61.11%), Ray Davis (58.7%), and Dillon Johnson (56.69%) have the top carry shares.
Lance Zierlein: Jonathan Brooks (1st), Jaylen Wright (2nd), and Trey Benson (3rd).
Noah Hills: Blake Corum (1st), Jonathan Brooks (2nd), Audric Estime (3rd).
Wide Receivers
Target Share: 10/12 of the best WRs in fantasy last year (83.33%) led the NFL in target percentage. Malik Washington (34.8%), Malik Nabers (31.1%), and Marvin Harrison Jr. (30.9%) have the highest Tgt % in this year’s class.
Targets Per Route Run: 9/12 (75%) of the top vet WRs. Malachi Corley (32.5%), Marvin Harrison Jr. (32.4%), and Malik Washington (31.4%) have the best TPRR amongst rookies.
Yards Per Route Run: 6/12 (50%) in NFL. Malik Nabers (3.81), Ladd McConkey (3.62), and Troy Franklin (3.55).
Contested Catches (Total & Rate): 7/12 (58.33%). Rome Odunze (17 (70.8%)), Luke McCaffrey (17 (64.7%)), and Marvin Harrison Jr. (13 (43.3%)).
Matt Harmon Average of Success Rate Percentiles (Man Coverage Percentile): So far, Rome Odunze (87% Avg Success Rate (87th Man)), Marvin Harrison Jr. (83% Avg (83rd Man)), Malik Nabers (69% Avg (84th Man)).
Matt Harmon Prospect Tiers 2021-2024: So far, Marvin Harrison Jr. (Tier 1 ( #1 Prospect Overall)), Rome Odunze (Tier 1 (#3 Overall), Malik Nabers (Tier 1 (#8 Overall).
PFF Game Athleticism Score (GAS): 28/33 NFL starters have >= 80th percentile PFF GAS (84.85%). 20/33 starters have >= 90th percentile PFF GAS (60.61%). This is a new athleticism metric, mentioned by Hayden Winks when discussing the top WRs in this class. Malik Nabers (99th percentile), Adonai Mitchell (99th), Xavier Worthy (99th), Xavier Legette (99th)
You can read all about it here: https://www.pff.com/news/pff-announces-new-pff-game-athleticism-score-pff-gas
For Scouts, the critical factors for a wide receiver include route running, hands, and run-after-catch ability. But for 13-year Philadelphia Eagles Scout Alan Wolking, “Nothing at that position, though, compares to the importance of speed. Do you play with speed? Do you have the ability to change direction, stop, and restart quickly? How do you catch the ball? And I think probably one of the more underrated traits is instincts. Like, how do you feel your surroundings once the ball’s in the air or once you have it on the ground? The prerequisite is speed. Play speed, you gotta have. And then you start peeling back the layers.”
Tight Ends
RAS Score Above 7: 11/12 of the top fantasy TEs in 2023 (91.67%) had RAS Scores above 7, with the average RAS score being 8.66. Theo Johnson (9.93), Ben Sinnott (9.72), and Jared Wiley (9.71) have the highest RAS scores amongst rookie TEs.
Target Share: 8/12 (66.67%) for NFL TEs. Brock Bowers (21.8%), Brevyn Spann-Ford (21.4%), and Dallin Holker (20.9%) have the highest Tgt shares in this year’s class.
Receiving Yards Per Team Pass Attempt: 8/12 (66.67%) for NFL TEs. Theo Johnson (2.05), Ben Sinnott (1.59), and Brock Bowers (1.57).
Yards Per Route Run: 7/12 (58.33%). Brock Bowers (2.65), Erick All (2.14), and Cade Stover (2.04).
Receiving Snaps (Snaps they ran a route): 8/12 (66.67%). Dallin Holker (484), Ben Sinnott (332), and Jared Wiley (322).
You can’t fight in here! This is The War Room!
There are key differences between the world of scouting in the NFL and fantasy. Exploring these differences can be a guide to developing your own process. A good place to start is by learning from the best what you are most passionate about. For me, it was the NFL Draft. But before you travel down this road, just know that rookies are perhaps the most hotly debated subject in the entire dynasty landscape. This is ironic because the most shocking aspect of the NFL Draft is how little consensus there is on players within an organization, let alone across 32 teams. Wolking states, “In many ways, the draft is a fool’s errand. You hope to be right a little more than you’re wrong and certainty is naive, so it would be silly not to take all the information into account, especially if you respect the preparation of the person presenting the information.” My main hope is that in light of any differences of opinion or process, just recognize that we all have the same goal and are on the same side.
