Grading Adversity
Rookie Research For The 2024 Class - Part I
You may not look like a winning team - but you are one.
Beane - Moneyball
Coach, “Where do you think BYU goes?”
The player referred to as “BYU” is 4-star recruit Makea “Puka” Nacua out of Orem High School in Utah. He was ranked as the 8th WR in the nation and the 48th overall player after setting a multitude of Utah and national records in high school. He received offers from Oregon, UCLA, USC, and Utah to play college football, but ultimately accepted an offer to become a Washington Huskie. Puka played in the first eight games of his freshman season, catching seven passes for 168 yards and 2 TDs before breaking his foot. The following year he managed nine receptions for 151 yards and 1 TD in three games during a COVID-shortened 2020 season. After two limited seasons at Washington, Puka moved back to his hometown Provo to support his mother and family when his grandmother was diagnosed with cancer. In his first season as a Cougar, Nacua caught 43 passes for 805 yards and six touchdowns, including four 100-yard games, and 148 yards on the ground at 10.6 yards per carry. He was 2nd in the FBS with 3.44 yards per route run, 61% of his yards were on receptions 20+ yards downfield, and he was 9th in the FBS with a 16.7 average depth of target. In his final year, Puka led BYU with 65 receptions for 625 receiving yards and five touchdowns, with an additional 25 carries for 209 yards and five TDs, despite being limited by a knee injury. Diving deeper into his analytical profile, Puka was 4th in the 2023 WR Draft Class with 15.93 PPG (Tank Dell was 1st, 19.13), 1st in targets per route run at 37.9%, and he dominated for multiple years of his collegiate career. So how does a prospect like him fall to the 42nd pick in the 5th round?
Scout, “6th. I mean, the thing with BYU is he tested really poorly.”
Puka Nacua was dominant on his 1st day at the Senior Bowl before suffering a concussion, which forced him to miss the athletic testing at the NFL Scouting Combine (more on this later). His last chance to raise his draft stock would come at the BYU Pro Day. Unfortunately, Nacua did not test as well as he had hoped. He ran an average 4.57 40-yard dash (likely closer to 4.62, 25th percentile), a poor 1.62 10-yard split, and managed a 33-inch vertical jump. This culminated in a 5.17 Relative Athletic Score (RAS), ranking him 1479th out of 3062 WRs since 1987.
The Pre-Draft circuit is a notoriously severe process for incoming rookies, with the most recent impression often catapulting or sinking a prospect’s draft stock. Poor testing, frequently “banged up” with injuries from his physical play style, and not catching the eye of major analysts on TV, Puka Nacua was projected as nothing more than an average backup or special-teamer in the final rounds of the draft.
Seeing In A Mirror Dimly
The forces at work in Dynasty Football are strikingly similar to the NFL. Replace NFL scouts with major content creators and analytics gurus in the space, Big Boards with KTC Rankings, and NFL Brass with dynasty managers, and the results are player sentiments and markets that often mirror the real-life sport. The parallels don’t end there. Professional teams that spend millions of dollars employing the best coaches, scouts, and analysts in the football world don’t fare much better in hitting on their draft selections than dynasty managers in their rookie drafts. The harsh reality is that it’s difficult to succeed in the NFL. So how can we learn from the NFL and improve grading rookie prospects? It starts with your eyes.
GM, “Well, his speed, his playing is fast. I mean if I go sort by miles per hour, he would be one of the top receivers.”
There are limits to what athletic testing can provide insight into. Despite missing the testing portion of the combine, Puka Nacua did participate in the route and catching drills. Puka had the fastest gauntlet speed of any receiver at the combine (20.06 mph), leading the GM of the Rams to conclude that Nacua was faster at catching and running with a ball than he was without one. The lesson we can learn is to trust what you see on film.
Coach, “I think this guy would be really good for us Les. I want a guy who’s going to be where he’s supposed to be, that’ll stay grounded through the catch, aggressive hands, that will dig out support in the run game. He can be an extension of the run game. This guy can be a functional piece of an offensive operation.”
Regardless if it’s in the 1st round or the 7th round, these organizations are looking for individuals who give them an edge. There is no perfect prospect; every one of them has a flaw. The key for front offices is finding that unique trait that makes them special. For us as dynasty players, it’s keeping an eye out for prospects who have that one ability that none of his peers have.
The next component teams focus on is how they will deploy this player. Forcing a square player into a round scheme and being unaware of their strengths and weaknesses will result in a terrible situation (Quentin Johnston & Treylon Burks). Understanding that certain coaches and organizations do a far better job of developing and utilizing talent is key for us in fantasy.
GM, “He’s a tough kid. To me, he showed there’s a tenacity, and a toughness, and a fight. And if you teach him technique, he’ll be able to ball… We know you got the guy you want. You got a vision for him.”
Coach, “Totally.”
GM, “We’re going to nail that pick.”
Lastly, there needs to be an identity and series of goals that leadership sets for their team. Without clear vision and experience, the ship will sink once it hits the storm. The vision Los Angeles had for Puka Nacua went beyond his athletic testing - they saw how he could be a valuable contributor to the team and how he embodied the spirit of being a Ram. Paying attention to what coaches and GMs say about players during draft conferences and listening to the vision they have for their selections is key.
As rosy as this scenario sounds, we as dynasty players don’t always have this type of access to the interview process with prospects. But we have the same baseline of college production to work with (which we will cover in Part II).
WR Coach, “You can’t measure people’s heart, their desire to play.”
Growing up wasn’t easy for Puka Nacua. His grandmother nicknamed him “Puka” when he was born, which in Samoan means, “fat and chubby." Despite a deep love of football in his family, it was not always easy to participate with his four older brothers. Wanting to play on the field with them was an invitation to getting “demolished” by his bigger and more physical siblings. Puka eventually slimmed down but the nickname stuck.
Puka Nacua's grandmother Fa'aTamali'i holding him as a newborn.
Throughout his childhood grit and determination were instilled, and from a young age his father, Lionel, recognized he would grow up to be the best. But two weeks before Puka turned 11, Lionel passed away from diabetes complications in 2012. Puka’s brothers remember seeing him frozen to the TV, watching hours upon hours of NFL football a week after their father passed. Puka wanted to follow through on the “game plan” his father envisioned for him, so football became an obsession.
Strength became Puka’s defining characteristic of his upbringing. His source of strength came from his mother, Penina, who struggled and sacrificed to provide for her five boys and one girl. When Puka received news that his grandmother’s health was deteriorating from ovarian cancer, he transferred from Washington to BYU to be closer to his family. Puka says, "We knew what it was like to lose a parent," and wanted to make sure he could support his mother the way she did for him after his father passed. Joining BYU not only allowed Puka to play with his brother Samson (who left the Utes to play at BYU), but it also fulfilled his dad’s dream to be a Cougar. It also fulfilled the hopes of his grandmother, Fa’atamali’i Saole Tafua. Despite her health and not leaving the house much, Puka’s grandmother said she would make an exception and attend every game if he played at BYU. After being diagnosed with cancer in early 2021 his grandmother passed away in Septemeber 2021, shortly after Puka’s first season with the Cougars began.
Taking it one day at a time amid these trials, Puka Nacua would go on to excel at BYU. He was mentored by his WR Coach, Fesi Sitake, who taught him “how to be a pro,” and also understood what it was like to lose a parent at a young age. Under Sitake, Puka sacrificed and developed into a player who strived for a high standard. Who he is as a person and a player was luckily recognized by one of the best coaches in the NFL, Sean McVay. When asked about what set Nacua apart during the pre-draft process, McVay replied, “Everything that you’re seeing.”
Changing The Game
The human element is a major motivating factor for my investment in football. Spending countless hours researching individuals fighting for their dream opportunity can leave you feeling invested beyond how many points they can score for your fantasy team. In addition to wanting to familiarize myself with the X’s & O’s of football, I am most interested in the stories and people behind the game. In the spirit of what Billy Beane says at the end of Moneyball, “I want it to mean something.” We are in an age of sports and information where our access to players is unlike any other previous time in history. But despite this fact, the loudest voices are everyone but the players themselves - their voice is mainly heard through what they can produce on the field. Initially, I began this article wanting to know how the LA Rams came away with the steal of the 2023 draft. But through writing this piece I discovered the real story was how Puka became the player we are witnessing today. His journey of hardhsip, being overlooked, discounted, and enduring loss is a testimony many of us can relate to. It's hard not to be romantic about football.
Draft Announcer, “With the 177th pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, the Los Angeles Rams select Puka Nacua, WR, BYU.”
Lionel with his sons Samson and Puka.
The Dossier
Sources Cited:
https://www.nfl.com/prospects/puka-nacua/32004e41-4355-9347-35af-af88fcaf7ee9
https://ras.football/ras-information/?PlayerID=23036
https://247sports.com/player/puka-nacua-46039709/high-school-190988/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Puka_Nacua
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39157526/los-angeles-rams-wide-receiver-puka-nacua-rookie-star
https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2023/10/10/23910514/los-angeles-rams-puka-nacua-rookie-receiver-rise-to-nfl-stardom
https://www.abc4.com/sports/samson-and-puka-nacuas-family-bond-brought-them-home-to-byu/
https://theathletic.com/1337759/2019/10/31/samson-puka-nacua-washington-utah/