Riches and Ruin

Rookie Value Insulation

Hanna - “Number one rule of Wall Street. Nobody... and I don't care if you're Warren Buffet or if you're Jimmy Buffet. Nobody knows if a stock is gonna go up, down, sideways, or in fucking circles. Least of all, stockbrokers, right? It’s all a fugazi. You know what a fugazi is?”

Belfort - “Fugayzi, it's a fake.”

Hanna - “Fugayzi, fugazi. It's a whazy. It's a woozie. It's fairy dust. It doesn't exist. It's never landed. It is no matter. It's not on the elemental chart. It's not fucking real.“

The Wolf Of Wall Street

The Rookie Stock Exchange

Once a year, the nation of dynasty managers gather together to pay tribute and offer up sacrifices in hopes of a fruitful season for their rosters. At the center of this festival looms an overwhelming structure. The marble facade boasts a colonnade design that towers high into the sky, reflecting brilliantly in the sunlight. At the precipice of the entrance, you take a deep breath… and then you are plunged into a world of chaos. Welcome to the Rookie Stock Exchange.

Staring at you are 11 other managers, most of them pissed off for how long they have had to wait before the ritual could begin. But it isn’t long until the shriek of the ceremonial bell echoes throughout the exchange, signaling the beginning of the draft. Immediately you are swallowed up in a frenzy of pushing, shoving, and screaming. “I’ll take Jermaine Burton at the 3.05!” one manager shouts. “Give me Rasheen Ali at the 5.06!!!” another exclaims. Looking up, you see numbers, names, green arrows, and red arrows scrolling across the walls: 2.05 - Ricky Pearsall ↑, 2.06 - Adonai Mitchell ↓, 2.09 - Troy Franklin ↓, 3.01 - Ben Sinnott ↑. Armed with their Sleeper apps, they angrily send each other trade offers, desperately seeking a seat at the draft table. Speed is the most important characteristic to surviving this Tasmanian affair. They drown themselves under a torrent of communications: Press Releases, Beat Reporters, YouTube, Twitter, you name it! They piece together nuances and subtle changes in the flow of information, all to catch trends and try to predict what will happen in the rookie exchange market. Fortunes are made or lost because of information or the lack of it.

All Good Things… 

Buried beneath the spectacle of our rookie drafts is the inescapable truth: all things eventually come to an end. For some rookie prospects, this certainty unfortunately occurs all too quickly. In an effort of self-preservation, we weigh out the costs and benefits of our draft pick investments, wondering to ourselves, “Is this draft pick the next Justin Jefferson or the next Jalen Reagor?” The rookie market is a rollercoaster of value fluctuations that can occur soon after a prospect’s name is announced at the NFL Draft. The most intriguing aspect of this process is that some rookies can withstand negative situations better than others. This is known in the dynasty community as Value Insulation.

There are a ton of assumptions that are widely spouted in the dynasty community revolving around rookie value insulation. “QBs maintain their value better than any other position,” “WRs are a safer bet than RBs,” or “TEs take 2-3 years before they start returning value.” But if you have been reading my articles long enough, you’ll come to understand that I hardly have any faith in what a lot of people say (especially without the research to back it up). I need to look into things myself.

The Setup

To discover the hidden truths behind this phenomenon, I began my research with the consensus rookie ADP of SuperFlex drafts from 2020-2023 (which you can view in the Dynasty Blues article). I split these four draft classes into two groups: the first group of prospects each arranged by their respective ADP and the second group arranged by position. Using KTC, I logged their positional ranking one week after their NFL draft as a baseline. From there, I measured their positional ranking at seven more critical junctures: the beginning of the NFL Preseason, week 1 of the NFL Regular Season, week 8, week 16, the following NFL Draft (1 year after the baseline), and the subsequent drafts for the following two years (2 & 3 years after baseline). Recording the positional rankings and value fluctuations at each of these dates, I originally attempted to track every pick and prospect of each class. Slowly realizing that this project would take forever to complete, and that no one gives a shit about 3rd and 4th-round rookies, I settled for tracking only 1st round prospects. Beginning with rookie insulation by draft slot, here are my findings:

Early-Round Rookie Picks

• Picks 1.01-1.03 are pretty locked in to accrue value until at least week 8 of the NFL Season.

• The 1.04 is more dependent than the 1.01-1.03 upon early production returns to guarantee value retention. Managers with this type of investment are likely more susceptible to panic selling if the players in this range do not produce early.

Mid-Round Rookie Picks

• Mid-1sts are even more dependent upon early production and positive market sentiment. Often, these players are in a clear tier below the elite prospects, making them a lot easier to move down or flip for proven veterans. Many of these players lose value since the draft, but can often see massive value gained if they are producing by the midway point of the season.

Late-Round Rookie Picks

• Late-1st prospects are perhaps the least susceptible to massive value changes (negative or positive), making them some of the “safest” bets of the first round. Given the mild capital investment, there is less pressure on these players to produce early, making it easier for managers to hold them. With so much hype focused on the top 6-8 picks, we often see talented players with imperfect profiles fall to this range, making them an immense value and some of the best steals in the draft.

Other Key Takeaways

• The most critical time for rookies is 1-year after they are drafted and how they stack up with the next incoming class. Managers with rookies who didn’t produce their freshman season or have negative public perception will look to trade to recoup some of the lost value. 

• About 3/4’s of rookie picks will lose value between the end of year 1 and year 2.  

• If a player has lost value after year 1, only about 1/4 of rookie picks recover and accrue value from year 2 into year 3, making them a risky bet.

• Outside of a disastrous season, most players retain their draft-day value throughout their first season. 

• But only about 1/4 of rookie picks will hit and continue to maintain or accrue value throughout their first three seasons in the league.

Tracking the value insulation of certain picks is only half the story. What can we learn if we view this same data by position?

Rookie Value Insulation By Position

• We are in a TE renaissance, where 1st-round ADP TEs are the safest bets on hitting (more on this in the previous article Dynasty Blues) and value insulation. This is likely due to how few great TEs there are in the dynasty landscape and how highly ranked so many begin their careers.  

• Most positions on average suffer a value loss after year one because 3/4‘s of prospects across the board fall in the rankings.

• WRs are the toughest bets to make, likely due to how difficult it is for prospects to break into the elite category early on in their career (see the Positional Volatility article for more on this). It doesn’t help that WR is the deepest position with the lowest hit-rate percentage either. 

• The best thing WRs have going for them is that they can have the best return early in their career if they hit. 

• RBs are the prospects that can shine twice as bright as any other position in their first season, but their value is sadly all but guaranteed to fall after year one.

• QBs are a relatively safe bet given their scarcity, but managers will often mirror the NFL and look to quickly move on from them if they don’t show promise by year two.

Other Key Takeaways

• Outside of players like J.K. Dobbins and Cam Akers, who suffered devastating injuries early in their careers, nearly every prospect fell in the rankings due to play, not injuries.

• The best time to sell rookies is during the fantasy playoffs. As a prospect’s freshman campaign comes to a close, managers will have a good idea of rookie values and will look to acquire promising assets heading into the next season.

• The best time to buy ascending rookies is between weeks 3-4 of the first season. At this point, there is just enough production data on players to make calculated wagers and get a last-minute seat on a rocket ship before it leaves the stratosphere.  

When Is A Gift Not A Gift?

The rookie voice is rising, but realizing how few of them become meaningful contributors to your dynasty squads can be quite sobering. Building off the concept of Hit-Rates (Dynasty Blues), this article sought to discover how long these rookies could maintain their positional ranking. From the moment you click “DRAFT,” a countdown commences. Over the next year, your investment will be relatively safe. But after a year, there will be a turning point (as shown below) where you’ll have to decide to either hold or sell your asset. Knowing that only 25% of these rookies will enjoy continued success should signal to sell more often and sooner than we think. Rarely do prospects like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Justin Jefferson, and Ja’Marr Chase come along and maintain their position for many years. 

With how addicted to young talent the dynasty community is, it won’t be hard to present to your leaguemates with a “special opportunity,” a new scenario, another stock for them to invest their valuable assets into (and then some). Many managers will be willing to pay the iron price after one year because they believe they have seen enough to make a “safe” investment. While these managers believe they are making their teams better in the long run, the brokers (who are liquidating) are doubling or tripling their investments in this racket. Outside of acquiring the future 1sts of poorly-constructed teams, there is no other more profitable strategy in the dynasty than selling over-hyped rookies after their freshman season. This doesn’t work if you’re incapable of scouting rookie talent or can’t continually replenish your war chests with 1st-round picks through trading.

For this reason, I have devoted all the previous articles of this off-season to trading and rookie evaluation. To the rest of your leaguemates, your roster should look like an amusement park filled with excitement and intrigue. Keep them returning with season passes through amicable trading and the moment they want to get off the ride to head home, show them a new attraction they can try. 

The Dossier

Riddles In The Dark

Rookie Research For The 2024 Class - Part III

The quest stands upon the edge of a knife. Stray but a little, and it will fail, to the ruin of all.

Galadriel - Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring

Dynasty is Changed

It all began with the forging of YouTube. Some channels were given to the Film Scouts; discerning, headstrong, and admired above all others. Other channels, to the Data Lords, great miners of analytics and craftsmen of regression tables. And the rest were gifted to the race of Content Creators, who above all else desire Underdog sponsorships. One by one, they released videos on the 2024 Rookie class, fighting over Drake Maye and ranking the Big 3.

But deep in the land of Ohio, in the color-coded cells of an Excel spreadsheet, is forged a master ranking. Into this document is poured the chutzpah, the fanaticism, and the big brains to dominate all other takes. One process to rule them all.  

Smoke rises from the City of Detroit, the hour grows late, and you ride to South Harmon seeking how high I have Tyrone Tracy Jr. ranked. For that is why you have come, is it not?

The Draft has a Will of its Own

In the years I have researched rookies, there’s never been a draft like this one. The 2024 class is bursting with offensive talent and the information available is an embarrassment of riches. But despite our wealth of resources, there is little consensus on the highly-touted prospects.  With such immense stakes in our rookie drafts, the tensions are high for dynasty managers.  To anchor myself before the looming storm of the draft, I investigated the process of NFL decision-makers and scouts (which you can read about in my previous two articles). In researching their evaluation of prospects, I don’t believe the key for us is to jump on hype-trains or kick people off before players become great; a lot of that is luck. It’s about being familiar enough with prospects so that IF they become great, you aren’t surprised. There is so much insight from great minds in the NFL and fantasy space. Exploring new topics and viewpoints can be like discovering a treasure map. You can’t make gold, all you can do is make yourself more open to finding it.

Regional Scout For The South Harmon Shitters

The following players I am highlighting are my favorite bets based on their discounted ADP, their scores in my process, and the attention they have garnered from film analysts. And now, here are the heroes that will shape the fortunes of this draft.

WR

Xavier Legette - In a process that looks to strike gold with discounted players who have unique journeys, there is no prospect I am pulling for more than Xavier Legette. As a 4-Star recruit out of Mullins, SC he was asked to sacrifice playing WR and led his high school as their QB his senior season. Like many players, Xavier’s first season in college was cut short by COVID. The following season he managed 11 games despite being involved in a motorcycle accident. Legette’s ability to persevere through adversity unfortunately came through the tragic loss of both his parents (his mother passed away in 2015 and his father in 2019). With the support of his three siblings, Xavier’s hard work finally paid off with a dominant fifth year at South Carolina. 

Xavier Legette’s athleticism is the first thing that jumps out. His 4.34 40-yard dash (97th percentile) and 119-speed score (98th) at 221 lbs are insane. He is 1/4 players to land a 99th percentile Game Athleticism Score from PFF alongside Malik Nabers, Xavier Worthy, and Adonai Mitchell. His ability to convert slants and flat routes into house calls in the blink of an eye is truly stunning. Legette’s elite speed paired with his 40” vertical to high-point balls at an impressive 47.6% rate in contested situations is a formidable combination.

But despite all of his giftings as an athlete, Xavier Legette isn’t a route-running technician that can compete with the elites of the NFL. His 19th percentile success rate versus man coverage will halt the notion that he’ll dominate as an X day 1 in the NFL. Drafting a WR that can break into the top 12/24 producers in the NFL is the biggest longshot amongst all offensive positions given how dominant the established vets are in the league. If I draft a long-shot player at a difficult position, he must be a high-upside player like Xavier Legette. The main determining factor for his success will be his development as a route runner (similar path as DK Metcalf) and his landing spot. Legette has already met with 14 teams during the Draft Process, including the Pittsburgh Steelers and the San Francisco 49ers. Kyle Shanahan is amongst the best in the league at creatively deploying unique pass-catching weapons. Seeing Legette deployed in motion alongside other explosive players like Aiyuk, Deebo, Kittle, and CMC would be a fantasy dream come true. If I swing at a WR after the Big 3, I am more than willing to draft Xavier Legette six to eight slots ahead of his current 2.09 ADP.   

Ricky Pearsall - The 2024 WR class may be one of the best we have seen in years because of the plethora of physical X-receivers alongside some athletically gifted players who operate mainly out of the slot. But if a player is limited to one role, perfection is the standard in the NFL. What sticks out to me about Ricky Pearsall is that he excels in various alignments all over the field. Ricky is not a player who stands out with production, but his athletic testing certainly does. Pearsall ran a 4.41 at the combine (90th percentile), had a 135.9 burst score (98th), a 10.69 agility score (97th), and a 10.44 catch radius (99th), which shows up in one of the best catches of the year. 

NFL Scouts will fall in love with his diverse usage, vice-grips for hands, and overall dependability in key situations. He also showcased his explosiveness and fluidity with the fastest 3-cone drill at this year’s Scouting Combine (6.64 seconds). Like Xavier Legette, Ricky Pearsall has also garnered the attention of the Pittsburgh Steelers. They met with Pearsall at the Combine and brought him for a Top 30 visit. I can envision him filling the Diontae Johnson void in the Steel City. Ricky Pearsall is a player worth a gamble in the mid-2nd round of rookie drafts, far ahead of his current 3.01 ADP.

Honorable Mention 

Adonai Mitchell - One of the most intriguing prospects in this year’s crop of WRs is AD Mitchell. He may be one of the very few I am willing to draft at cost (1.11) despite his production red flags. In terms of key metrics for this class, AD was 21st in PPG (10.76 pts), 26th in Target % (18.1%), 2nd worst (33rd) in TPRR (17.5%), 31st in Y/RR (1.79 yds), and ranked 28th in contested catches (3 for 33.3%). But I’m fascinated with how much Mitchell is challenging my process, especially in terms of film.

Adonai is Steve Smith Sr. and Hayden Wink’s 6th ranked WR, Brett Kollman’s 4th best, and is in the 3rd Tier of prospects since 2021 for Matt Harmon. On top of being one of the favorites of analysts I respect, Mitchell has one of the best athletic profiles in this class. His 4.34 40-yard dash and 117.1 speed score are in the 97th percentile, coupled with a 135.2 burst score (96th), 10.29 catch radius (92nd), and a 99th percentile GAS rating from PFF. Given what scouts most covet in a WR, Adonai’s speed, separation, fluidity, body control, and usage as an outside WR stand out as unique in a class filled with other special players. In terms of explaining his lack of production, I can understand that his role as a purely X-receiver on the line, running down the field at a 16-yard aDOT on mainly nine and dig routes, and fielding passes from an inconsistent QB will negatively impact production. And in keeping with the WR trend, Mitchell has met with the Pittsburgh Steelers multiple times. The possibility of AD being paired with another down-field threat in Pickens is very intriguing.  

RB

Audric Estime - Ranked securely in my top 5, Audric Estime is one of the most complete RBs in this class. Anyone who has watched Audric from an endzone view will immediately notice his exceptional play in gap runs. He displays a remarkable feel around the line of scrimmage in the way he patiently follows behind his line and his ability to manipulate incoming defenders. This is further highlighted by the fact that Estime faced more heavy boxes (7 or more defenders in the box pre-snap) than any other RB in college and was only behind Isaiah Davis in terms of efficiency (nearly 6.5 YPC versus heavy boxes). Despite this opposition, no one was more productive than Estime last year (class high 21.26 PPG).  At 5’11 and 221 lbs, Audric has the ideal size of a productive NFL back. Estime’s ability to run with such authority “is indicative of a confident grasp of his schematic responsibilities” (Noah Hills) and why I believe scouts are so intrigued with him (most team meetings throughout the draft process of any RB). The number of team meetings may not seem like a big deal, but Daniel Jeremiah states, “The success of a player is directly correlated to the number of points of contact teams have with that player, their exposure, & taking advantage of having as many interactions with them as possible to get a feel for who the player is.” 

However, the major reason Estime is on this list is that players like him are why I want to go beyond relying purely on analytics when evaluating players. The fantasy community is pushing down players like him, Bucky Irving, and Blake Corrum after their average to poor 40 times. But would these same people change their minds if they knew that Bucky was tied for the most plays with the fastest GPS-tracked times in all of college football last year (5 times) and that Blake was right behind Bucky (4 times)? And despite a horrendous 4.71 at the combine (17th percentile), Estime was tracked running 20.9 mph in week 2 of 2023. He’s explosive enough to have 38 carries of 10+ yards (5th best in class), 22 carries of 15+ yards (3rd best), 5.33 missed forced tackles/game (5th best), and 4.27 yards after contact/attempt (3rd best). Keon Coleman had the fastest gauntlet speed of any receiver over the last season (20.36 mph) despite a 4.61 40-yard time (26th percentile). Reminiscent of Puca, Keon is faster when the ball is in the air and in his hands. If the film or production doesn’t match up with testing, it should push you to dig deeper. 

Ray Davis - A player getting a lot of interest amongst NFL Teams (3rd most team meetings among RBs) but little love in the fantasy community is ultra-productive Kentucky RB Re'Mahn “Ray” Davis. Scoring the most points of any RB I researched, leaving him off this list wasn’t an option for me. What I like most about Ray Davis is his duel-threat ability as a runner and a pass-catching weapon. He averaged 19.2 routes/G (6th best in class) and had a 10.4% target share (2nd best). As a rusher, he handled a 58.7% share of carries (2nd best) and had by far the best dominator rating amongst his peers (19.9%).  On film, Ray demonstrated a lively, quick, and aggressive style of play, with his best runs coming on zone concepts where he often made defenders miss and could power through would-be tacklers. The biggest downsides to Ray Davis’ profile are his age (already an old man at 24 years old) and his lack of athleticism compared to other RBs. But given the short window we give RBs anyway, the 4.02 cost is easy to swallow.    

Honorable Mention

Blake Corum - Blake Corum is the most obvious steal of the draft. As one of the best RBs in the country throughout most of his career, his relatively down season last year and the questions surrounding his knee injury have scared off many fantasy managers. As concerning as it is to come back from a torn meniscus, a grade II MCL sprain, and a “deep” bone bruise, I encourage any reader to look into the track record of players who recovered from similar injuries. Blake’s treatment, age, and physical ability should inspire confidence that he can fully recover and play at the same level before his injury. A year further removed from his knee injury should return some of the lost explosiveness he suffered last year while recovering. No other RB this year can teach a Masterclass on vision, instinct, and decision-making with as little wasted movement as Corum. And while Estime faced the most 7-man boxes in 2023, Blake was by far and away met with the most 8+ man-boxes last season (109 carries). This and Michigan’s unrelenting commitment to the running game provides some context to Corum’s down season. With the ability to run in various schemes, Blake's compact frame (5’8” & 205 lbs) is ideal for running and passing situations. You won’t find a cheaper potential number-one RB than this year’s Blake Corum at a 2.06 ADP.

TE

Ben Sinnott - Of all the players in rookie drafts this year, Ben Sinnott is the most undervalued prospect by ADP (currently the 4.06). In the same way, my process pointed to Sam LaPorta as the TE1 in last year’s class, I am fully confident Ben Sinnott is neck and neck with Brock Bowers as the TE1 in 2024. At 6’4” and 250 lbs he is an inch taller and 7 pounds heavier than Brock Bowers. At the Combine, he cleared the critical 4.70 threshold we look for in elite TEs with a 4.68 40-yard dash (76th percentile). He also had a 133 burst score (98th), 11.05 agility score, and 10.36 catch radius (95th), which resulted in a 9.73 RAS Score. He is the only TE in history besides Vernon Davis to clear a 40+ inch vertical at the combine weighing 250. RAS Scores for TEs are the closest thing we have in the analytics world to a magic bullet, and Sinnott’s RAS is good enough to rank him 33rd all-time out of 1116 TEs dating back to 1987. That ranks him ahead of athletic freaks like Pitts, Kelce, Kittle, Gronkowski, Njoku, Engram, and LaPorta.    

But what separates Ben Sinnott from other gifted TEs like Theo Johnson (who we’ll get to later) and places him in a tier closer to Bowers is his college production and versatility. Sinnott ranked 2nd in PPG (behind Bowers) amongst TEs in this class, 1st in receiving yards share (21.6%), 2nd in receiving yards/team pass attempt (1.59), and 2nd in receiving snaps (332). Pairing this with an ability to line up at fullback, H-Back, at the Y in 11 personnel, and F in 12 personnel is why Ben Sinnott has the 2nd most meetings with teams amongst TEs so far through the pre-draft cycle. He should be going a full round ahead of where he is currently being selected in rookie drafts.

Honorable Mention

Theo Johnson - After running a 4.57 40 at the combine and qualifying for the 9th-best RAS score of all time, Theo Johnson has met with more teams than any other TE throughout the draft process. He may not have the greatest production but with a current 4.08 ADP in rookie drafts, the risk is extremely low on a prospect with truly ridiculous athletic ability.

Questions that Need Answering

To conclude this article, I have disclosed below my precious research, to which I am bound to its fate. Keep it secret, keep it safe.

One important caveat to note with this research: the scores and rankings are based purely on production, athletic testing, and the rankings of experts. My rankings won’t come about until after the NFL Draft. The “Premium Score” is based solely on the metrics I discussed in my previous article, whereas the “Overall Score” includes many other data points. The red scores are guestimation due to missing athletic testing.

The Dossier

Works Cited:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lVkAulGqSrM&t=366s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N2tYS6DCcAs&t=366s

What If He Could Be THE ONE?

Rookie Research For The 2024 Class - Part II

Like sifting sand through a screen, we sift people.

Reverend Mother Mohiam - Dune

The Secret Society of Scouts

As a powerful ancient order, the Scouts’ influence on steering NFL franchises can not be measured due to their shadow of secrecy. Carefully analyzing thousands of prospects across hundreds of schools, they meticulously develop a network of informants that spans the entire world of football. Being worthy of such responsibility requires great sacrifice and time discipline. For nine months straight and 16 hours a day, scouts dedicate themselves to travel and gathering intel, enduring great monotony and isolation. It is arguably the most difficult and important position in the NFL. Driving this group is one simple maxim they live by: We don't hope, we plan. And their plans are measured over many years in case their prospects fail their promise. Their power comes from the ability to breach space and time as they look to the past to help their organizations into a better future. 

Researching the craft and dedication of NFL Scouts was nothing short of awe-inspiring. Assigned to a region of the country, college scouts are responsible for evaluating 300 to 400 draft-eligible players. They must travel to every school with NFL-worthy talent regardless of how many and far apart those schools are. Only 1.6% of draft-eligible players (257/16,000+) will be selected with the precious few picks most teams have. This intense process begins with breaking down the film because nothing translates better to success in the NFL than what a player does in pads. But the biggest secret behind the success of a scout comes from their ability to see things beneath the surface of a prospect. The process becomes an extremely comprehensive interview. The biggest difference between the NFL world and Fantasy Football is how much scouts weigh a player’s fit for their teams and the brand of football they want to build. This comes down to how a player fits a specific role. A player has to fit what a team is already doing or the team has to be willing to adapt to a player’s strengths and weaknesses. Talented and productive players will fall to the dismay of fantasy managers if they don’t fit exactly what NFL teams seek. But the payoff for scouts after a long journey is standing on the table, fighting to draft a player they believe in, and seeing that prospect help them win games. So what can we learn from NFL Scouts to improve our rookie evaluations?

Veterans of the Psychic Wars

Though my wife would argue otherwise, I do not devote the same amount of ungodly hours to researching prospects, nor do I have the same level of access scouts have. But the journey to developing my process began where all scout’s stories end - The NFL Draft.

For a long time, my favorite day of the year wasn’t Christmas, my birthday, or even the Super Bowl. It was getting wings with my older brother at Eddie George’s in the heart of Ohio State campus on High Street during the NFL Draft. Once a year, all of our knowledge came to a head with an epic three-hour showdown of who could best place themselves in the shoes of NFL decision-makers. But ultimately, it was a test for the gifting of prophecy. Through these years of hard-fought mental battles with my brother, my football senses were trained and tested. This process and my views have evolved, but in essence, haven’t changed.

My rookie research can be broken down into four categories:

• College Production: The process begins with what a rookie did in college under the simple guise that a player who couldn't perform highly at the college level has a snowball’s chance in hell at surviving in the pros. We will get into soon what exactly this looks like.

• Athletic Testing: “Athleticism may be more than enough in college, but it isn’t enough in the NFL. Everyone in the NFL is the best of the best.” - Daniel Jeremiah. A prospect’s ability is best measured through watching their tape because football is what they dedicate themselves to performing at a high level.

• Draft Capital: Draft capital is useful in the same way dynasty startup ADP is useful - it reflects how A LOT of people value a player. A player passed on by all 32 organizations multiple times and falls to day 3 says something. I do not advocate going against ADP or challenging the process of NFL teams when the stakes are high. I advocate the willingness to go out on a limb when the risk is low.

• Landing Spot: The final component of my rookie process is the one I am pushing myself the most on learning. Some of the best-projected prospects failed on Sunday because their teams lacked the resources and understanding of who they were as players to help them succeed. This component goes beyond looking at depth charts, supporting casts, and schemes. It’s about vision for a player. The vision for these prospects begins with scouts.

“Scouting is about elimination as much as discovery.” - Alan Wolking

In the previous article, I discussed keeping an eye out for prospects with special traits, recognizing which organizations have a reputation for getting the best out of their players and paying attention to the coverage of NFL War Rooms. Regardless of whether you utilize these edges, it’s essential to remember that NFL teams are working with the same baseline of college production for these prospects as we are.

A good process goes beyond production, testing, and projections. There is no magic bullet, no predictive metric, or any measure of certainty. At best, we have strong guesses and ranges of likelihoods. Grading is putting together a puzzle where you can barely make out the picture on the box. But this reality doesn’t diminish our pursuit to sharpen our practices. The main goal is to see things others are not seeing because ultimately we want a competitive edge where we can benefit massively from low-risk bets. 

To sift through rookie prospects, my research involves 70+ metrics, but since I wish to spare my readers from being waterboarded with dry data, we will only focus on the key categories for each position.

Unsung Heroes

My spreadsheets are populated by every offensive prospect invited to the Senior Bowl, Shrine Bowl, and Scouting Combine. The majority of stats in my process have been informed by Mike Liu (@MiKeMeUpP), Drew Osinchuk (@DFBeanCounter), Peter Howard (@pahowdy), Jake Estes (@dynasty_jake), Ian Miller (@dynasty_im), and Jacob Sanderson (@JakobSanderson). But missing from my approach to rookies was understanding the various “whys” behind football that can only be understood through watching film. I am at the very beginning of my journey into the X’s & O’s and the context behind schemes, so I am leaning on the expertise of J.T. O’Sullivan (@jt_osullivan), Lanze Zierlein (@LanceZierlein), Steve Smith Sr. (@SteveSmithSr89), Brett Kollmann (@BrettKollmann), Noah Hills (@noahmoreparties), Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks), and Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB). 

Before I began my research, I wanted to know how well the metrics I used for rookies translated to finding the top fantasy performers (PPG) already in the NFL from 2023. Here is what I found with what I am calling Premium Metrics:

Quarterbacks (the elite tier is out of 14 QBs because of the three-way tie for 12th in PPG last season)

• QBR: 9/14 of the highest-scoring QBs in fantasy (64.29%) had the best QBRs in the NFL in 2023. Jayden Daniels (95.6), Bo Nix (91.2), and J.J. McCarthy (88.2) have the best QBRs in this year’s class.

• PFF Passing Grade: 8/14 (57.14%) of NFL QBs last season. Bo Nix (92.7), Jayden Daniels (92), and Michael Penix Jr. (90.6) have the top passer ratings according to PFF.

• aDOT: 8/14 (57.14%) of 2023 NFL QBs. Michael Penix Jr. (11.4), Michael Pratt (11.1), Drake Maye (11), and Devin Leary (11) have the highest aDOT.  

• Rushing TDs: 9/14 (64.29%) of last year’s top fantasy QBs. Caleb Williams (11), Jayden Daniels (10), and Drake Maye (9) have the most rushing TDs.

• J.T. O’Sullivan: Caleb Williams (1st), Jayden Daniels (2nd), J.J. McCarthy (3rd)

From a Scout’s perspective, accuracy, decision-making, and poise are the bedrock of every QB evaluation according to Daniel Jeremiah. Other factors include play-making ability, operating outside the structure of a play when it breaks down, pre-snap recognition, and manipulating defenses.

Running Backs

• Routes/g: 8/12 of the top fantasy RBs (66.67%) had the most routes/g in the NFL in 2023. Emani Baily (24), Bucky Irving (23.6), and Rasheen Ali (21.3) lead all rookie RBs.

• Target Share: 7/12 (58.33%) of the best fantasy RBs led their position in TGT%. Frank Gore Jr. (9.9%), Rasheen Ali (9.7%), and George Holani (9.4%) are the top target earners in this class.

• Dominator: 7/12 (58.33%) of veteran RBs last season. Ray Davis (19.9%), Frank Gore Jr. (14.8%), and Keilan Robinson (10.3%) have the highest dominator among RB prospects.

• Evaded Tackles/g: 7/12 (58.33%). Unfortunately, I could not find this stat tracked amongst college athletes, so I settled for the next best thing with Missed Forced Tackles/g. Kimani Vidal (6.75), Jonathan Brooks (6.3), and Emani Bailey (5.83) lead this category.

• Snap Share: 8/12 (66.67%). Once again, I could not find this metric for rookie prospects, so I compromised using Carry Share. Kimani Vidal (61.11%), Ray Davis (58.7%), and Dillon Johnson (56.69%) have the top carry shares.

• Lance Zierlein: Jonathan Brooks (1st), Jaylen Wright (2nd), and Trey Benson (3rd).

• Noah Hills: Blake Corum (1st), Jonathan Brooks (2nd), Audric Estime (3rd).

Wide Receivers

• Target Share: 10/12 of the best WRs in fantasy last year (83.33%) led the NFL in target percentage. Malik Washington (34.8%), Malik Nabers (31.1%), and Marvin Harrison Jr. (30.9%) have the highest Tgt % in this year’s class.

• Targets Per Route Run: 9/12 (75%) of the top vet WRs. Malachi Corley (32.5%), Marvin Harrison Jr. (32.4%), and Malik Washington (31.4%) have the best TPRR amongst rookies.

• Yards Per Route Run: 6/12 (50%) in NFL. Malik Nabers (3.81), Ladd McConkey (3.62), and Troy Franklin (3.55).

• Contested Catches (Total & Rate): 7/12 (58.33%). Rome Odunze (17 (70.8%)), Luke McCaffrey (17 (64.7%)), and Marvin Harrison Jr. (13 (43.3%)).

• Matt Harmon Average of Success Rate Percentiles (Man Coverage Percentile): So far, Rome Odunze (87% Avg Success Rate (87th Man)), Marvin Harrison Jr. (83% Avg (83rd Man)), Malik Nabers (69% Avg (84th Man)).

• Matt Harmon Prospect Tiers 2021-2024: So far, Marvin Harrison Jr. (Tier 1 ( #1 Prospect Overall)), Rome Odunze (Tier 1 (#3 Overall), Malik Nabers (Tier 1 (#8 Overall).

• PFF Game Athleticism Score (GAS): 28/33 NFL starters have >= 80th percentile PFF GAS (84.85%). 20/33 starters have >= 90th percentile PFF GAS (60.61%). This is a new athleticism metric, mentioned by Hayden Winks when discussing the top WRs in this class. Malik Nabers (99th percentile), Adonai Mitchell (99th), Xavier Worthy (99th), Xavier Legette (99th)

  You can read all about it here: https://www.pff.com/news/pff-announces-new-pff-game-athleticism-score-pff-gas

For Scouts, the critical factors for a wide receiver include route running, hands, and run-after-catch ability. But for 13-year Philadelphia Eagles Scout Alan Wolking, “Nothing at that position, though, compares to the importance of speed. Do you play with speed? Do you have the ability to change direction, stop, and restart quickly? How do you catch the ball? And I think probably one of the more underrated traits is instincts. Like, how do you feel your surroundings once the ball’s in the air or once you have it on the ground? The prerequisite is speed. Play speed, you gotta have. And then you start peeling back the layers.”

Tight Ends

• RAS Score Above 7: 11/12 of the top fantasy TEs in 2023 (91.67%) had RAS Scores above 7, with the average RAS score being 8.66. Theo Johnson (9.93), Ben Sinnott (9.72), and Jared Wiley (9.71) have the highest RAS scores amongst rookie TEs.

• Target Share: 8/12 (66.67%) for NFL TEs. Brock Bowers (21.8%), Brevyn Spann-Ford (21.4%), and Dallin Holker (20.9%) have the highest Tgt shares in this year’s class.

• Receiving Yards Per Team Pass Attempt: 8/12 (66.67%) for NFL TEs. Theo Johnson (2.05), Ben Sinnott (1.59), and Brock Bowers (1.57).

• Yards Per Route Run: 7/12 (58.33%). Brock Bowers (2.65), Erick All (2.14), and Cade Stover (2.04).

• Receiving Snaps (Snaps they ran a route): 8/12 (66.67%). Dallin Holker (484), Ben Sinnott (332), and Jared Wiley (322). 

You can’t fight in here! This is The War Room!

There are key differences between the world of scouting in the NFL and fantasy. Exploring these differences can be a guide to developing your own process. A good place to start is by learning from the best what you are most passionate about. For me, it was the NFL Draft. But before you travel down this road, just know that rookies are perhaps the most hotly debated subject in the entire dynasty landscape. This is ironic because the most shocking aspect of the NFL Draft is how little consensus there is on players within an organization, let alone across 32 teams. Wolking states, “In many ways, the draft is a fool’s errand. You hope to be right a little more than you’re wrong and certainty is naive, so it would be silly not to take all the information into account, especially if you respect the preparation of the person presenting the information.” My main hope is that in light of any differences of opinion or process, just recognize that we all have the same goal and are on the same side.

The Dossier

Works Cited:

https://theathletic.com/1626902/2020/02/24/on-the-road-again-and-again-one-day-in-the-life-of-an-nfl-area-scout/

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/28749868/3000-nights-hotels-chain-restaurants-lots-video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B6dgx70xUG0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L9e9YOmmEak

Grading Adversity

Rookie Research For The 2024 Class - Part I

You may not look like a winning team - but you are one.

Beane - Moneyball

Coach, “Where do you think BYU goes?”

The player referred to as “BYU” is 4-star recruit Makea “Puka” Nacua out of Orem High School in Utah. He was ranked as the 8th WR in the nation and the 48th overall player after setting a multitude of Utah and national records in high school. He received offers from Oregon, UCLA, USC, and Utah to play college football, but ultimately accepted an offer to become a Washington Huskie. Puka played in the first eight games of his freshman season, catching seven passes for 168 yards and 2 TDs before breaking his foot. The following year he managed nine receptions for 151 yards and 1 TD in three games during a COVID-shortened 2020 season. After two limited seasons at Washington, Puka moved back to his hometown Provo to support his mother and family when his grandmother was diagnosed with cancer. In his first season as a Cougar, Nacua caught 43 passes for 805 yards and six touchdowns, including four 100-yard games, and 148 yards on the ground at 10.6 yards per carry. He was 2nd in the FBS with 3.44 yards per route run, 61% of his yards were on receptions 20+ yards downfield, and he was 9th in the FBS with a 16.7 average depth of target. In his final year, Puka led BYU with 65 receptions for 625 receiving yards and five touchdowns, with an additional 25 carries for 209 yards and five TDs, despite being limited by a knee injury. Diving deeper into his analytical profile, Puka was 4th in the 2023 WR Draft Class with 15.93 PPG (Tank Dell was 1st, 19.13), 1st in targets per route run at 37.9%, and he dominated for multiple years of his collegiate career. So how does a prospect like him fall to the 42nd pick in the 5th round?

Scout, “6th. I mean, the thing with BYU is he tested really poorly.”

Puka Nacua was dominant on his 1st day at the Senior Bowl before suffering a concussion, which forced him to miss the athletic testing at the NFL Scouting Combine (more on this later). His last chance to raise his draft stock would come at the BYU Pro Day. Unfortunately, Nacua did not test as well as he had hoped. He ran an average 4.57 40-yard dash (likely closer to 4.62, 25th percentile), a poor 1.62 10-yard split, and managed a 33-inch vertical jump. This culminated in a 5.17 Relative Athletic Score (RAS), ranking him 1479th out of 3062 WRs since 1987. 

The Pre-Draft circuit is a notoriously severe process for incoming rookies, with the most recent impression often catapulting or sinking a prospect’s draft stock. Poor testing, frequently “banged up” with injuries from his physical play style, and not catching the eye of major analysts on TV, Puka Nacua was projected as nothing more than an average backup or special-teamer in the final rounds of the draft.

Seeing In A Mirror Dimly

The forces at work in Dynasty Football are strikingly similar to the NFL. Replace NFL scouts with major content creators and analytics gurus in the space, Big Boards with KTC Rankings, and NFL Brass with dynasty managers, and the results are player sentiments and markets that often mirror the real-life sport. The parallels don’t end there. Professional teams that spend millions of dollars employing the best coaches, scouts, and analysts in the football world don’t fare much better in hitting on their draft selections than dynasty managers in their rookie drafts. The harsh reality is that it’s difficult to succeed in the NFL. So how can we learn from the NFL and improve grading rookie prospects? It starts with your eyes.

GM, “Well, his speed, his playing is fast. I mean if I go sort by miles per hour, he would be one of the top receivers.”

There are limits to what athletic testing can provide insight into. Despite missing the testing portion of the combine, Puka Nacua did participate in the route and catching drills. Puka had the fastest gauntlet speed of any receiver at the combine (20.06 mph), leading the GM of the Rams to conclude that Nacua was faster at catching and running with a ball than he was without one. The lesson we can learn is to trust what you see on film.

Coach, “I think this guy would be really good for us Les. I want a guy who’s going to be where he’s supposed to be, that’ll stay grounded through the catch, aggressive hands, that will dig out support in the run game. He can be an extension of the run game. This guy can be a functional piece of an offensive operation.”

Regardless if it’s in the 1st round or the 7th round, these organizations are looking for individuals who give them an edge. There is no perfect prospect; every one of them has a flaw. The key for front offices is finding that unique trait that makes them special. For us as dynasty players, it’s keeping an eye out for prospects who have that one ability that none of his peers have. 

The next component teams focus on is how they will deploy this player. Forcing a square player into a round scheme and being unaware of their strengths and weaknesses will result in a terrible situation (Quentin Johnston & Treylon Burks). Understanding that certain coaches and organizations do a far better job of developing and utilizing talent is key for us in fantasy.

GM, “He’s a tough kid. To me, he showed there’s a tenacity, and a toughness, and a fight. And if you teach him technique, he’ll be able to ball… We know you got the guy you want. You got a vision for him.” 

Coach, “Totally.” 

GM, “We’re going to nail that pick.”

Lastly, there needs to be an identity and series of goals that leadership sets for their team. Without clear vision and experience, the ship will sink once it hits the storm. The vision Los Angeles had for Puka Nacua went beyond his athletic testing - they saw how he could be a valuable contributor to the team and how he embodied the spirit of being a Ram. Paying attention to what coaches and GMs say about players during draft conferences and listening to the vision they have for their selections is key. 

As rosy as this scenario sounds, we as dynasty players don’t always have this type of access to the interview process with prospects. But we have the same baseline of college production to work with (which we will cover in Part II).

WR Coach, “You can’t measure people’s heart, their desire to play.”

Growing up wasn’t easy for Puka Nacua. His grandmother nicknamed him “Puka” when he was born, which in Samoan means, “fat and chubby." Despite a deep love of football in his family, it was not always easy to participate with his four older brothers. Wanting to play on the field with them was an invitation to getting “demolished” by his bigger and more physical siblings. Puka eventually slimmed down but the nickname stuck.

Puka Nacua's grandmother Fa'aTamali'i holding him as a newborn.

Throughout his childhood grit and determination were instilled, and from a young age his father, Lionel, recognized he would grow up to be the best. But two weeks before Puka turned 11, Lionel passed away from diabetes complications in 2012. Puka’s brothers remember seeing him frozen to the TV, watching hours upon hours of NFL football a week after their father passed. Puka wanted to follow through on the “game plan” his father envisioned for him, so football became an obsession.  

Strength became Puka’s defining characteristic of his upbringing. His source of strength came from his mother, Penina, who struggled and sacrificed to provide for her five boys and one girl. When Puka received news that his grandmother’s health was deteriorating from ovarian cancer, he transferred from Washington to BYU to be closer to his family. Puka says, "We knew what it was like to lose a parent," and wanted to make sure he could support his mother the way she did for him after his father passed. Joining BYU not only allowed Puka to play with his brother Samson (who left the Utes to play at BYU), but it also fulfilled his dad’s dream to be a Cougar. It also fulfilled the hopes of his grandmother, Fa’atamali’i Saole Tafua. Despite her health and not leaving the house much, Puka’s grandmother said she would make an exception and attend every game if he played at BYU. After being diagnosed with cancer in early 2021 his grandmother passed away in Septemeber 2021, shortly after Puka’s first season with the Cougars began. 

Taking it one day at a time amid these trials, Puka Nacua would go on to excel at BYU. He was mentored by his WR Coach, Fesi Sitake, who taught him “how to be a pro,” and also understood what it was like to lose a parent at a young age.  Under Sitake, Puka sacrificed and developed into a player who strived for a high standard. Who he is as a person and a player was luckily recognized by one of the best coaches in the NFL, Sean McVay. When asked about what set Nacua apart during the pre-draft process, McVay replied, “Everything that you’re seeing.”

Changing The Game

The human element is a major motivating factor for my investment in football. Spending countless hours researching individuals fighting for their dream opportunity can leave you feeling invested beyond how many points they can score for your fantasy team. In addition to wanting to familiarize myself with the X’s & O’s of football, I am most interested in the stories and people behind the game. In the spirit of what Billy Beane says at the end of Moneyball, “I want it to mean something.”  We are in an age of sports and information where our access to players is unlike any other previous time in history. But despite this fact, the loudest voices are everyone but the players themselves - their voice is mainly heard through what they can produce on the field. Initially, I began this article wanting to know how the LA Rams came away with the steal of the 2023 draft. But through writing this piece I discovered the real story was how Puka became the player we are witnessing today. His journey of hardhsip, being overlooked, discounted, and enduring loss is a testimony many of us can relate to. It's hard not to be romantic about football.

Draft Announcer, “With the 177th pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, the Los Angeles Rams select Puka Nacua, WR, BYU.”

Lionel with his sons Samson and Puka.

The Dossier

Sources Cited:
https://www.nfl.com/prospects/puka-nacua/32004e41-4355-9347-35af-af88fcaf7ee9

https://ras.football/ras-information/?PlayerID=23036

https://247sports.com/player/puka-nacua-46039709/high-school-190988/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Puka_Nacua

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39157526/los-angeles-rams-wide-receiver-puka-nacua-rookie-star

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2023/10/10/23910514/los-angeles-rams-puka-nacua-rookie-receiver-rise-to-nfl-stardom

https://www.abc4.com/sports/samson-and-puka-nacuas-family-bond-brought-them-home-to-byu/

https://theathletic.com/1337759/2019/10/31/samson-puka-nacua-washington-utah/

Dynasty Blues

Rookie Hit Rates For SuperFlex Drafts

Elwood - "It's 106 miles to Chicago, we got a full tank of gas, half a pack of cigarettes, it's dark... and we're wearing sunglasses." 

Jake - "Hit it.”

The Blues Brothers

Casting Lots

It’s the most wonderful time of the year - the rookie season! From early March until late April, a make-believe interview is transpiring in the minds of dynasty managers on which college players they will select in their rookie drafts. These prospects are probed and prodded until they are ultimately praised as generational or banished to the outer darkness. To lead this investigation are the great houses of Film Scouts, Data Miners, Strategists, and Influencers who wage war for likes, subscribes, and Patreon memberships. In the royal court of public opinion, no one is looked upon more favorably than those who can prophesy the future. But unlike wise men and sorcerers, the best way to be prepared for the future is to understand the past.    

Before you decide who to select, you must understand the value of your rookie pick. This evaluation ultimately boils down to probabilities and ranges of outcomes. As bleached and sterilized as that sounds, this approach will help set healthy expectations to keep you from being easily led astray. In the first part of the Rookie Series, we will focus on the Hit Rates of rookie picks in Superflex drafts.

It Wasn't A Lie, It Was Just Bulls**t

How often have you heard a content creator say, “You should prioritize this position or accumulate these picks because the hit rates are far more favorable!” but they don’t cite the actual hit rate figure or where their data originated from? It’s difficult to recite a deluge of stats via video or podcast without sounding like stereo instructions, which is why written mediums lend themselves to highly detailed topics. Regarding detail, few have positively inspired me as much as Peter Howard (@pahowdy). Seeing his Rookie DLF Hit Rates from years ago has stuck with me and is the main inspiration for this article. My research however will explore some different facets of rookie hit rates.

My data was sourced by Dr. Koopa (@dynastyKoopa) with the following parameters:

• Sleeper leagues

• ADP of completed rookie-only drafts from actual leagues (not mocks) 

• 2018-2023, specifically post-NFL Draft until the end of August each year

• Superflex leagues, 9-13 starters

Using this data, I set out to discover the rookie hit rates for QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs for each round (4-rounds), each tier of picks (1.01-1.03, 1.04-1.06, etc.), and each pick (1.01-4.12). A hit is at least one top-12 or top-24 season (PPR) at their position throughout their NFL career. I then went beyond the initial hit-rate percentages and tallied the total number of top-12 and top-24 seasons for each of these tables.   

It is important to note that Sleeper did not debut fantasy football leagues until 2017, making 2018 the first true year for rookie-only drafts. But more importantly, with Sleeper came the steady rise in mainstream popularity of dynasty and Superflex leagues. Unfortunately, neither was extremely popular in 2018, so the data from that year only encapsulates ADP from 7 leagues and spans to only the 3.10 pick. Luckily, these formats went through a renaissance shortly after with 500+ rookie drafts in 2019, 3200+ in 2020, 9700+ in 2021, 17,000+ in 2022, and 25,000+ in 2023 (all of which had 4 completed rounds worth of ADP). But perhaps most critical to my research was the focus on SF league settings and ADP derived from actual leagues. 

It can not be understated how much of a difference in value and draft strategy there is for QBs between 1QB and SF leagues. It may not be a stretch to say that any hit rate data sourced before 2018 is likely 1QB driven. On this basis, the hit rates will differ considering where QBs are typically drafted in 1QB leagues versus SF. It has taken years for the dynasty community to buy into the importance of QBs; even in SF. We didn't have our first 1.01 QB until 2021 (Trevor Lawrence) and there hasn't been one since. In terms of ADP versus ECR (I’ll have to do a future article on this topic), I’ll take the opinion of the masses from paid leagues every day of the week and twice on Sundays over “experts.” It is far more important for me to understand the views, behaviors, and markets of the average dynasty manager I will be playing with and whose sole motivation is winning their league. But this is enough yapping, let’s get into the findings.

Oh, We Got Both kinds. We got Busts *and* Face-Planters.

Beginning with a 30,000 ft. view of hit rates before we descend deeper into the minutia, we notice that hitting on a top-12 performing asset in the first round is slightly better than a coin flip. Those odds jump to 71% for a top-24 season. Perhaps the most unexpected aspect of these hit rates is how much better 3rd round RBs have performed over their 2nd round counterparts. It is disappointing how low the odds of hitting on an impactful WR are considering their ever-increasing popularity in fantasy. This is likely due to how difficult it is for incoming wideouts to outperform the elite veterans in the NFL, who are on top year in and year out. Ironically, the highest hit rate is attached to the least consequential position in fantasy. The odds of stumbling across an effective player fall off significantly after the second round.

The following chart of the total number of top-12/24 seasons highlights the massive disparity in talent between first-round assets and everyone else.

Key Takeaways:

• The probability of landing a top-24 asset in the 2nd round is nearly the same as hitting on a top-12 player in the 1st round.

• Focus on QBs in the 1st, TEs in the 2nd, RBs in the 3rd, & trade for WRs later on after they hit.

• Considering 3rd round picks are amongst the most highly traded assets, the pro-gamer move would be trading your current 3rd for a future 3rd that can be used in-season for spot-starts. 

Transitioning from whole rounds to tiers of rookie picks is when things become substantially more interesting.

The Foolish Things Shaming the Wise

Would anyone have guessed that a late-round 1st had the same likelihood of hitting on a top-12 performer as an early 1st!?! Or that it had a higher chance of securing top-24 production?!? This is the result of only one WR (Drake London) who has had an ADP in the top 3, and he has yet to crack a top 24 season (cross your fingies either London breaks out or MHJ bucks this trend). It can’t be ignored though how much value the last six classes have had at the end of the first round. This may be the fruits of the extraordinary depth coming out of college, the fantasy community’s deficiencies in letting these talents slide to the backend of the 1st, or perhaps both things are at play. It should be noted that just because we have 100% hit rates for top-12 QBs in the 2.07-2.09 range and for RBs in the 4.07-4.09 doesn’t mean I have discovered the Holy Grail of draft slots for those positions - it just means that the only QB & RB being drafted in those ranges happen to be Daniel Jones & James Robinson.

The following tables showcase why I chose to chart the total number of top-12/24 seasons in addition to hit rates. As you can see, the 71.11% hit rate by early-round RBs has been far more impactful than the 75% hit rate by late-round QBs in terms of fantasy production (15x vs. 6x Top-12 szns). It is encouraging to see that WRs are not a total loss in rookie drafts and that their 1.04-1.06 tier is the second-highest number of top-24 seasons (21x) amongst any position at any pick tier (trailing only 1.01-1.03 RBs, 28x).

Key Takeaway:

• Having picks at both bookends of the first round is the way to go.

For the grand finale of this research project, we will now examine the hit rates of individual picks.

Do You Miss All The Shots You Don’t Take?

It is reassuring that 10 of the 12 draft slots in the first round have at least a 50% chance of landing you a top-24 performer. It’s also nice that the 1.01 lives up to the hype. Having the 1.02 on the other hand is like deciding between cutting the red wire or the blue wire in hopes that your costly draft pick doesn’t blow up in your face. We can knock on wood that Caleb Williams and MHJ are both can’t-miss prospects and that the 2024 class will mirror the 2019 and 2021 classes with both the 1.01 and 1.02 hitting. But it may not hurt to think long and hard about their potential barriers to stardom and parsing through whatever team situations they are drafted to. It may also be prudent to avoid dismissing the 1.03 as the “leftover” pick, but rather as an asset that deserves to be in the same tier as the 1.01 and 1.02 players.

Do You See The Light?

Stare at this data long enough and you will forget what you previously knew about the value of a draft pick. It’s taken me years to discern the light in dynasty. And now that I feel like I am beginning to understand, I feel like so much of what I have previously known has been nothing to me but blinding. But this is only the beginning of a multi-part series that will help you navigate the rookie season.  So go get yourself some cheap sunglasses and let’s try to beat the dynasty masses.

The Dossier

As a bonus, I have listed below the SF ADP of the 2018-2023 classes.

Trading Stats

The Dynasty Abyss

We send those men up into space to unlock the doors of the universe, and we don't even know what's behind them. 

Mulder - The X-Files

The Twilight Zone

It has long been mankind's dream to reach the distant lights in the night sky. This pioneering mindset has been the banner call of one agency in the fantasy space - The National Analytics and Strategy Administration. With breakthroughs in optimal roster construction, data analysis, and player evaluations, the brightest dynasty scientists and engineers are closer now to answering the most pondered questions about the fantasy cosmos. 

But there are rumors of another unexplored country in the deep depths of dynasty football. Hidden in this pitch-black realm are organisms that exist in the harshest conditions, under immense pressure, and would seem to defy the laws of nature. The creatures that inhabit this abyss are your leaguemates and it is the trenches of their mind that I wish to explore trading in this article.

The League Ecosystem

Like many projects, this one began with a few questions that many assume they already know the answers to. But speaking to these topics without data is like sailing past an island and saying your feet have touched the beach. Whether a frigid tundra or a rainforest teeming with activity, each league is an environment with unique cycles, seasons, resources, hierarchies, and patterns of behavior. As someone who is obsessed with trading, I’ve always wondered:

• “What are the most commonly traded assets?”

• “Is the trading market typically dominated by a select few?”

• “Is there a time of year most ripe for trading?”

• “Are certain assets better value-insulated than others?”

In this article, we will explore four major categories associated with trades: Times of Year, Types of Assets, Value Fluctuations, and Managers. With a better understanding of these areas, perhaps we can become more effective in navigating trading.

The Background

The data in this project involved analyzing every trade from all nine of my 12-team dynasty leagues from the 2023 season (from the day after the 2022 Championship till the day of the 2023 Championship). The dynasty leagues are eight Superflex leagues and one 1QB league, which include four lineup leagues and five bestball leagues, and a diverse sample of roster settings (including 2 starting TEs), scoring settings (various TE premiums), trade deadlines, and various lifetimes of the league (first year to third year).

In total, 278 trades were completed across these nine leagues during the 2023 season, all of which were 2-sided deals (556 managers). Let us first examine the types of assets being traded.

Picks Vs Players

A total of 1,115 assets were traded across these dynasty leagues in 2023. Of these 1,115 traded assets, 439 of them were draft picks, 672 were players, and 4 were FAAB transactions. This amounts to an average of 123.88 assets, 48.78 draft picks (39.38%), 74.66 players (60.27%), and 0.44 FAAB assets (0.36%) traded per league year. The average amount of pieces involved in a trade was 4.01.

Draft picks were categorized using the following criteria: picks 1-4 in a round were ranked “Early,” 5-8 “Mid,” 9-12 “Late,” 2024 picks were classified as “Next Year,” and picks in 2025 or beyond were deemed “Future.” The “#” and “%” in the right-hand column of the table below represent the total number and percentage of trades the asset was involved in.

First-round picks barely edged out thirds as the most commonly traded picks (123 vs. 122). Regardless of the round, Next Year picks were by far the most commonly traded, followed by Future picks.

Players were categorized using various criteria dependent upon the league’s starting roster settings. The ranking of these players is based on Keep, Trade, Cut (KTC) dynasty values by position at the time of the trade. Each position ranked players in increments of 12 since all of the leagues were comprised of 12 managers (ex - WR1 = Wide Receiver ranked 1-12 on KTC, WR2 = 13-24, WR3 = 25-36). All FLEXs and Bench players were dependent upon the league’s starting rosters. For example, a league that requires 3 starting WRs and 3 FLEX positions will have any WR ranked by KTC 1-36 classified as a WR-1-3, any WR ranked 37-72 would be deemed a WR FLEX, and any WR ranked 73+ would be categorized as a WR Bench for that particular league. Three of the nine dynasty leagues require 2 starting TEs, hence there being a distinction between TE2 and TE FLEX. 

To no one’s surprise, the most commonly traded players in dynasty are WRs, followed by RBs. Of these positions, FLEXs were the most frequently dealt players. Interestingly enough, Bench QBs were the third most traded players. Elite WRs and QBs appear to be amongst the most rarely traded players in dynasty football.

The Unforgiving Market

Taking the above data a step further, the following section analyzes the change in market value from the day these players were traded to their present market value. Little did I know that this simple question of how a player’s value fluctuates would cut through my mind like a soft cheese and lead me to write this article. As noted above, I tracked each player’s positional numerical value and ranking at the time of the trade compared to their present value based on Keep, Trade, Cut. The value change of draft picks was not tracked given the well-known fact that draft picks do not lose value throughout their lifespan.  

On average across all leagues, the combined value of the assets involved in a trade added up to 6,496.88 at the time of the transaction (equivalent of a late 1st + late 3rd), which in turn amounts to each manager giving up a mid 2nd worth of assets per trade. At the time of trade, these players on average ranked in the top 35.21 at their respective positions. These results were not surprising, but what came as a shock was the change in player values in less than a calendar year. 

The average positional ranking of traded players had fallen 5.31 spots from 35.21 to a current ranking of 40.52. Of the average 74.66 players traded per league, 45.56 (61.02%) of them fell in the rankings at their respective positions, leaving only 29 (38.84%) players who retained or rose the ranks. Most eye-opening was how big of a loss these players had when you graded the league as a whole on their player trades. The total value differential from the time of trade to their current rankings for players added up to a cumulative (-383.11). This was the result of not only the majority of players being traded tumbling down the rankings but a lot of them free-falling as many as 30-40 spots at their positions.

Not a single position was invulnerable to value loss, but QBs and TEs as a whole were better insulated compared to RBs and WRs when observing their average change in rankings. It should be noted that when analyzing the various tiers within the positions, the RB Bench and TE FLEX were the only types of players spared a negative grade because of the massive ascension of outliers Kyren Williams and Trey McBride skewing the data. The WR Bench position nearly achieved this same feat off the back of Puka Nacua. Outside of these positions, QB1s, QB2s, WR1s, and WR3s were the safest players to trade for.

Just as intriguing as this player data are the managers pulling the strings on these transactions. 

Bloody Pirates

On the open waters of your league, there roams a select few who control the vast majority of trade routes. But as capable as these captains may be, there is only one worthy of being called king of commerce. These high-volume traders took part in 44.10% of all trades, meaning they comprised 22.05% of all the managers involved in deals since each transaction in this sample was associated with two managers. When added together, these top-level negotiators comprised 122 of the 556 parties involved in trades, and on average shook hands with their leaguemates 13.56 times a season. When the scope of this data is expanded to include the top four negotiators, they encompass a 60.9% average of all managers involved in trades. On the flip side, the bottom-four volume traders constitute only 10.89% of managers involved in trades.

The final category of interest for this trading study pertains to timing.

What’s The Rush?!

The timing of trades was broken up into 17 periods during the calendar year associated with the most significant events of the NFL and Fantasy season. Based on the results, leagues do not typically register any trade activity until the beginning of March, when College Pro Days occur after the NFL Combine. It isn’t until mid-March, at the beginning of NFL Free-Agency, that the second largest cluster of trades transpires (avg. of 3.44 trades, 10.58% of all trades). There remains a steady pulse of trade activity throughout the Summer from the NFL Draft (7.02%), through Rookie Minicamp (5.32%), OTA’s (6.35%), and Mandatory Minicamp (7.39%). But by far the most popular time to trade is during the NFL/Fantasy regular season (before the Fantasy Trade Deadline/Fantasy Playoffs), accounting for a whopping 40.78% of all trades, with an average of 12.44 deals being completed.

In terms of buying and selling, I confirmed that the best time to buy veterans was during the off-season (the best time to sell was during the season), while the best time to acquire rookies was during the season (the worst time was during the off-season). I also discovered that even though rookie picks gain value over their lifetime, 2nd and 3rd round picks slightly dip in value for two weeks immediately preceding the start of the NFL season, so buy then! To close out this category, it should be noted that managers who traded for players during the off-season had a slightly higher chance of inheriting a player that would LOSE value (65.12%) compared to if they had waited to trade during the regular season (62.37%).  

Key Takeaways For Trading:

• Trading for FAAB remains the most underrated asset to trade for (only 0.36% of trades in the average league)

• Managers won’t roll out of bed for players worth less than a 2nd. Need to get their juices flowing with top-35-ranked players

• Elite QBs & WRs are worth their weight in value insulation

• Load up on a few extra Bench QBs; they have a healthy trade market

• If you can’t get a deal done with one of the top five traders in your league, chances of getting a deal done are low

The biggest takeaway from this article should be the 60%+ chance that any player you trade for could lose value, and depending on the type of player, it can amount to a significant loss. After last season, I vowed to leave the days of making significant off-season trades long behind. But after conducting this research, I’m taking it further by swearing off players throughout the off-season altogether. Better to load up on draft capital throughout the off-season and use those picks as ammo to trade for the players that separate themselves as real-difference makers when they make themselves known during the regular season.

Conclusion

They say we know much more about the surface of the moon than what lies at the bottom of our oceans. Similarly, our technical knowledge of fantasy football far exceeds our understanding of leaguemate behavior, which is a subject I wish to explore more in future articles. Having started this project in late August and analyzing each trade by hand, this is by far the most time-intensive project I’ve ever completed. As I embarked on this journey, I wasn’t sure what data I would find or if it would even translate into trade strategy. But after looking into these Trade Stats for each of my leagues, paired with The Lab’s capabilities to divulge portfolio data, I now have the most comprehensive Dossier I could ask for on my competitors. It is necessary to note that this data and perhaps some of these takeaways may not look the same for your league; I could only go off of what I had access to, so take this article with a grain of salt. I do not possess the technical prowess that many gifted analysts have, who can effortlessly harness far greater stores of data in the palm of their hand, so this article is nothing more than a free dive into this topic. But I hope that it will inspire others to dive deeper than I can into the trading abyss.

The Dossier

The Trade Checklist

Before You Click Accept

The Best Lessons Are Often Painful Ones

Late is the hour and waning are the moments you have left before the Sandman comes to take you away. You open your Sleeper App with just enough time to tuck in each of your rosters for bedtime, looking at each of your players with pride and joy. Overwhelmed with the worry of losing everything you fought so hard to build, you contemplate on how to best protect them. From the crack of the doorway, you whisper to yourself, “Perhaps there’s a wee bit of luck left for me to squeeze out of today. I’ll send a trade to elevate my squad to new heights and secure my future!”

Unfortunately, it has been a far too common experience of mine that instead of falling asleep knowing that my teams are safe and sound, I stay up until the witching hour concocting some ungodly Faustian bargains, and by morning I am filled with nothing but bewilderment and regret. Can you relate? Me neither. But for many others, one of the most difficult hurdles to overcome is recalling the key lessons we have learned amid trade talks. The following is a collection of some of the most painful lessons I have learned from negotiating:

1) Do Not Trade during Date Night - Do not try executing a trade agreement when your attention is needed elsewhere and you can be easily distracted. Negotiating takes mental energy so be clear-headed, alert, and do not rush the process. Do not make deals late at night when you’re slipping in and out of consciousness - no one has ever made a good decision after midnight.

2) Do Not Sell Light - If you are trading away top assets for draft capital, make sure that you are receiving difference-making 1st round picks (1.01-1.06) that have a higher likelihood of return for your investment.

3) Talk Through the Trade - There's no drawback to negotiating a trade through succinct and respectful dialogue. This includes: 

• Asking your trade partner if they are interested in a trade. If they are, what pieces are they most willing to trade away and receive?

• Making an initial offer that is fair (close to market value).

• Making a final offer that you can live with.

• That’s it. Table discussions and thank the manager for their time if a deal isn’t made.

Negotiations do not need to be drawn-out interactions where every ounce of value is squeezed out of the deal. Sending an offer before proper discourse is made can lead to some bad deals filled with regret. Do not be too eager!

4) Use KeepTradeCut, Startup ADP, FantasyCalc, & The Lab - Say what you want about their trade calculator, but KTC’s dynasty rankings are one of the best resources we have when it comes to the market value of players (almost 13 million crowdsourced data points). Equally as informative is access to the latest startup ADP data from paid leagues. Understanding the market is crucial in trades and requires having access to the latest and greatest data sets for determining value. You don’t always have to agree with a player’s consensus value but the farther you diverge from consensus the more risk you invite. If you would rather inform your decision-making based on actual trades instead of rankings or calculators, FantasyCalc and The Lab tool at South Harmon are fantastic resources.  

5) Seek a 2nd Opinion - We can often get carried away with our trades and easily lose sight of some pivotal considerations. Having someone you can go to for an unbiased opinion before you click accept is a game changer.

6) Hold Your 1st Round Picks - The previous article on Passive Trading lays out an argument for not trading any of next year's 1st until later into the season. It also should be reiterated that having a plethora of 1sts shouldn’t suggest having a looser grip on them either. The only exception to trading your 1sts early (which are both covered in Proactive Trading) is the chance at a top 3 draft pick or in a deal that lands you an elite QB. Otherwise, exercise pick restraint.

7) Conduct A Roster Inspection - Do a thorough roster assessment of the team attached to the pick you are trading away. Proper roster construction will be covered in a later article, but it’s advised to consider the likely finish of a team before you trade away their 1st.

8) Can It Wait? - One of the more nuanced items on this checklist, which once again involves knowledge of the market, is asking yourself “Do I NEED to do this trade now OR can this trade wait for later on in the season?” Very rarely do the players that we target in trades rise to such a value throughout the season that they become cost-prohibitive. Often the player either retains or loses value. The only asset that is guaranteed to rise in value is a draft pick for the upcoming class. But even if you wait on a player that you are unable to acquire later, there are likely other players in a similar tier that could be considered for trades as well.

9) Be Balanced - This is one of the hardest principles to wade through because we do not have a crystal ball. There are plenty of people in the fantasy space who can cite a million ways a player will either fail dramatically or set the fantasy world on fire, but finding someone who can do both is as rare as a unicorn. With so many factors that hang in the balance for players (talent, team situation, coaching, competition, injuries, etc.) I try my best to operate within a framework that weighs the known obstacles and historical likelihood for certain outcomes of players. Taking this measured approach not only fends off views that are largely negative or hopium-driven but also makes room to appreciate the players who overcome the insane odds to become truly great. 

10) Be Informed - Much of what I advocate is based upon individuals building their own process and analysis to discover what is meaningful on their fantasy football journeys. When one chooses to walk the Way of the Degenerate, there is a large time commitment that leads to understanding and discernment - This is the Way.  A massive component of my process is the rookie and re-draft rankings I develop for the upcoming season. Completing your work without rushing the process can ensure a larger measure of confidence in all your fantasy decisions, including your trade deals. 

11) Sleep On It - I can’t advise strongly enough how important it is to wait 24 hours to allow the trade to marinate in your mind before clicking accept. Being overly eager to get a deal done or trading out of panic never ends positively. In the same vein, do not fall victim to the used-car salesman who is pressuring you into making a deal on the spot. Showing your resolve to be patient could very well result in the other manager becoming impatient and offering a more favorable deal you can accept with confidence.

Conclusion

In a game that is won by the slightest of margins, having a process to aid in your decision-making and a checklist that you can quickly refer to can mean the difference between losing or winning it all. But even with all of that said, it’s pivotal to give yourself grace. You can have a mountain of knowledge and confidence in your system and still come up short. The high degree of chance that is involved in this game is what makes it both so frustrating and gratifying. Take any advantage you can get and look forward to tomorrow being a better day.

The Dossier

Proactive Trading

Fostering the Right Deal

Don't get too cocky my boy. No matter how good you are, don't ever let them see you coming.

Milton - The Devil’s Advocate

It’s Not About What You Know. It’s About Who You Know.

What is the most important asset in fantasy football? Elite quarterbacks? A treasure trove of picks? Or maybe it's powerful tools and analytics? That would make sense if we were robots or viewed fantasy as purely transactional, but there are aspects of fantasy football that are far more organic. In leagues that allow you to trade, your most important commodity is relational capital. In today’s leagues, trading requires more than specialized knowledge, salesmanship, or waiting for a fish to come to bite your hook. If you want more managers to dine at your table, you need to be a hospitable host.

Trades are a fragile system with a multitude of ways they can fall apart, and a host of reasons managers will not give you the time of day to listen. The most important factors to be cognizant of in the realm of negotiating are timing, opportunity, and rapport.

Timing

Leaguemates will ultimately not be receptive to trading if they don’t want to or don't need to. This is tied up in their perceived likelihood of making a championship run, as well as how they value the individual pieces on their team. Looming at the forefront of every manager’s mind you trade with is the possibility that the asset they are sending away is going to ascend (otherwise, why would you want them?) or the piece they are receiving is going to plummet. Beginning with an understanding of your trade partner’s team needs and their willingness to part with certain assets is the best way to start negotiations. Ultimately, needs and circumstances change, so it's best to view any ‘no’ you may be told as a ‘not now’ and remain patient.

Opportunity

As a community that is constantly stimulated with analysis, we are very susceptible to overreacting to anything that fogs or threatens our current plans. It can be difficult to discern the best course of action during these events, but effectively navigating them presents us with some of the best trade opportunities in fantasy. These opportunities come in many forms and fashions, but rarely are they anything we haven’t seen before. It would be difficult to succinctly explain how to maneuver when these situations arise, but don’t worry we will explore many of these topics in future articles. For now, I will recommend doing a little bit of your own research that also includes the views of others so that you are well-rounded in your perspective, fading the Twitter noise, and watching the game. All these factors will play a role in discovering your own risk tolerance and will help you develop a process. There will be times your fellow leaguemates place their panicked assets on the trade block, but the opportunities I’m more intrigued by are the ones uncovered through research before they become talking points.

Rapport

How you treat your leaguemates and how you carry yourself during negotiations is just as critical to getting a deal done as the trade itself. It begins with seeing things from your leaguemate’s perspective and understanding their wants. As great as it is to be applauded for ‘winning’ one deal, I would much rather ‘win’ a leaguemate through amiable trade talks who will prefer me as a trade partner for multiple future deals. These managers become your “repeat customers.” The best way to develop this is by being: 

• Easy to work with - don’t be an ass or pushy.

• Prepared - already have some deals in mind that you would accept if you were in the other manager’s shoes. This includes your initial offer & your final offer.

• Succinct - Be straightforward & to the point.

• Painless - get in & out as quickly as possible, do not drag things out.

• Stay away from having to persuade, this can come across as manipulative.

• Inquiring - The best way to get a deal done is to ask what they want & are willing to do.

• Carefree - Be patient & willing to table negotiations for a later time.

• Available as a Resource.

If I could only choose one characteristic, I find the last point the most compelling. Being willing to share your knowledge and help your competitors is the type of backward wisdom that fosters the best trade relationships and long-lasting leagues we all live for. There may only be a few managers who are open and interested in your offer to help, so do not waste your time on kabuki managers who do not see eye-to-eye with you or annoy others with your unsolicited advice.

There is a great deal of responsibility that comes from being a resource to others. Leaguemates who are less experienced or knowledgeable may place a great deal of confidence in you when it comes to their moves or trades. When competition and money come into play, perceptions can turn quickly and become personal. To be a trustworthy steward of these relationships, it is essential to leave the ball as much in their court as possible and have the other party in the driver’s seat of the negotiation. This may be as simple as saying, “Hey, I’m looking to trade away this asset, are you interested?” or “What would it take for me to acquire this player of yours?” and nothing more. Even with all the best intentions, trades can age badly and thus fairly or unfairly sour the rapport. Be above reproach in this area and give more than you receive.

The Seasons of Trading

Depending on your league, you can execute trades whenever you would like. However, there are well-established times during the fantasy football cycle that are favorable for certain assets:

• The Startup Draft - Great for buying future picks when some managers want a head-start on fielding the most competitive teams.

• The NFL Combine & Draft - Great time to buy solid vets while your leaguemates are drooling over the incoming rookie class.

• Your Fantasy Rookie Draft - Generally the best time to sell picks for players or future picks.

• Depth Players - The last couple weeks of the off-season is the best time to buy the bargain-bin vets to fill out your roster.

• Selling Players - By weeks 5-8 you should have a pretty good idea if you’re a legitimate contender (top 4 in points scored). If you’re not a contender, you want to be one of the first managers to trade away players to playoff contenders for picks (or injured upside players) because if you wait until the trade deadline then you're going to have competition with other non-contenders.

• Selling Players Part II: The Trade Deadline - You want to be the first to market in terms of trading away players for picks around the midpoint of the season, but it is recommended to sow the seeds of larger future deals in the minds of playoff teams and wait until a week or two before the trade deadline when they are most desperate. Be patient on parting with your more valuable assets that you're willing to trade away.

• Selling Picks - Hold onto your picks until later on in the season as a contender - you will get your best deals from rebuilders as they get more desperate to accumulate draft capital.

• Buying Future Picks - Outside of your startup draft, the entire off-season is a great period to acquire next year’s picks, with August typically being the absolute best time to buy.

• Buying Players - Start with smaller trades (3rd & 4th round pick values) earlier in the season. As the season progresses, the picks you’re willing to trade for players can increase in value (2nds & 1sts). Have a list of players who can help carry you to a championship and reach out to their managers earlier on to lay the foundations of a possible trade. It is preferable to have those managers wait until close to the deadline to trade your wish-list players, which mitigates the risk of trading for a player who gets injured.

  An additional perk of waiting on trading for players is the larger sample of data on player performance throughout a season (especially WoRP - Wins Over Replacement Player) that will better inform you on the best players to target in a trade. 

  Lastly, there tends to be a larger pool of players available on the trade block later in the season. So often there are teams that either through poor management or plain bad luck are much more willing to trade their valuable players at a better price when the reality sinks in they are going to miss the players and they have no draft picks going into next season.

• Buying Players Schedule

  • Weeks 1-2 - Be willing to trade a 3rd

  • Weeks 3-4 - Be willing to trade 2x 3rds

  • Weeks 5-8 - Be willing to trade a 2nd

  • Weeks 9-12 - Be willing to trade 2x 2nds (or 1x early 2nd)

  • Weeks 13-16- Be willing to trade a 1st

Speakeasy vs VIP

For the most part, I apply a barrel-aged, sit-back, and slow-sip approach to my trading. But there are occasions where spontaneity and splurging are just as essential for the life of your fantasy roster as being relaxed with your trading. If draft picks are the kings of dynasty, then the king of kings are picks 1.01-1.03. It should go without saying that having one or multiple of these picks while rebuilding is the top priority. But how do you acquire these picks while contending yourself? The first step is identifying the most poorly constructed and managed rosters in your league. These are the teams that have no elite QBs, a lack of difference-makers on offense, are one injury away from catastrophe but are still willing to trade and want to make the playoffs. Targeting these managers very early on and acquiring their first-round picks for the next two to three seasons is perhaps the biggest difference-making move one can make. The beauty of this strategy is that even if you initially establish your team as rebuilding, you are betting on your team eventually ascending in a year or two while the other team who forfeited their picks will forever wallow in the upside-down.

Managers who believe they are contenders do not need to be offered anything more than fringe 1st round-valued players for their picks. If you are rebuilding, be willing to take risks and offer up to two assets that are each worth a 1st to acquire projected top 3 picks earlier on in the season. If you are contending, you will have to decide if you want to commit yourself to such a bold move or instead devote your assets to securing a championship.

The only other exceptions worth moving heaven and earth for are elite QBs. The top six to eight dynasty quarterbacks (consensus startup rankings) all offer special talent, security, and production. If any elite quarterbacks ever grace your league’s trade block, devote every resource you can within reason to acquiring them. Making this type of move requires a true iron bank of picks (6-8 1sts spread over the next two drafts) and may be worth the high cost, even if it sets you back one additional year before contending.

Cold & Calculated

One of the hardest disciplines to learn while building an eventual contender is not becoming too attached to the highest-valued skill position players. The previous Passive Trading article lays out the risks of trading a bounty of high-valued assets for one elite WR, RB, or TE. Using the same logic, it behooves a manager to actively shop these players for top dollar while rebuilding. Here’s why:

• The top valued skilled players (Jefferson, Chase, Bijan, and the next Kyle Pitts) have already capped in value - they cannot ascend any higher overtaking elite QBs in SF. 

• Their production works against securing the best possible draft picks.

• There isn’t enough of a production gap between them and their often much cheaper, older veteran counterparts - this is the key difference between skill players and QBs.

It is acceptable to hold these players once you have constructed a juggernaut and have the proper depth and collection of draft picks at your disposal. But the main objective to get to that level of play is accruing as many valuable assets as you can. There is a power of multiplication where each piece gained from trading this type of player away can be further flipped into multiple shots of impactful advantages. The next time you are blessed with the great fortune of having the next Ja’Marr Chase who skyrockets to #1 status their rookie year, wait until the right deal comes your way, and you could potentially turn that one player into the next trifecta of Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, and Marvin Harrison Jr.

Other Ideal Trades:

• Trade for production (older productive players you can acquire at a discount) OR trade for value (younger players whose trade value can increase) - both types of trades are valuable.

• If you are rebuilding & have low draft capital: trade away the talented, aging players that do not line up with your competition window.

• During the first few weeks of the season, if you have a plethora of 1sts while rebuilding, then consider moving a pick that projects to be late for a player whose profile is good but perhaps whose production value is depressed (previously, DeVonta & Aiyuk) over players that have a lot of hopium attached to them.

• If you are looking to trade away a starting WR, seek out the manager who rosters the QB of that WR & offer them the potential stack.

Woe To Those Who:

• Trade away stud players for depth - There is a diminishing return if the gap of your down-tier is too large between the stud you are sending away for the pieces you are receiving. Older, fringe players can cliff in value overnight. 

• Trade away 1sts & 2nds for depth - These types of highly liquid assets should be reserved for players who will regularly enter your lineup, not for insurance policies.

• Trade away highly drafted players before week 4 - Players can stumble out the gate or may sustain short-term injuries. Fade the negative narratives and remember the season is 17 weeks long.

• Operate on a “One Player Away” mentality - Ignore the “all I need” voice that is tempting you to deplete your most valuable picks for one player that will make your starting lineup sexier. Injuries and duds can pile up quickly, so your projected late 1st could prove to be earlier. It’s pivotal to have the proper depth when making a title run. 

• Additionally, do not overpay for these “final piece” players, especially if they are not young elite studs. Remember, the trades you walk away from can be just as good as the ones you make.

• Lessons Learned from 2023:

• Do Not Be Beholden to Perfect Roster Construction - As great as it feels to go into the season with all the boxes of your roster checked, achieving ideal roster construction comes at a high cost. With high variance and attrition, it is best to wait until the mid or late part of the season before you decide to start pushing your chips on acquiring the final difference-making pieces to your optimal roster puzzle.

• FAAB & Keep-Away - Having the biggest FAAB budget in the playoffs remains the most underrated advantage a competitor can have.

• For more great lessons from last season, be sure to check out the Week 16 Dossier: The Great Regret.

From Beginning Till No End

It can be easy to feel like Alice while trying to understand any one aspect of fantasy football - it is a story that needs to be read cover to cover several times before it starts to click. My overall goal with these articles is to teach individuals how to fish for themselves rather than spending so much time relying on being fed by others. I’ll end it with another Al Pacino quote that embodies the spirit of trading for me.

They say you don’t buy it, you rent it. You don’t keep anything really. You try to stave off insecurity, but you can’t do it. Stocks, bonds, objects of art, real estate. What are they? An opportunity. To what? To make money? Perhaps. To lose money? Perhaps. To 'indulge' and to 'learn' about ourselves? Perhaps. They're an opportunity. That's all they are. They're an event.

Roma - Glengarry Glen Ross

The Dossier

Passive Trading

The Art of the Patient Deal

Sometimes, The Best Deals Are The Ones You Never Make

How many times have you made a deal that you almost instantly regret? Or how many times did you mortgage your future with your draft capital on a player only to miss the playoffs that season? Between countless hours filling in cells on spreadsheets with the latest analytics, or overdosing on an ocean of content, it can be easy to obsess over our fantasy football teams and make these mistakes. But like a dark comedy, the results of our efforts are often ironic & cruel.

It’s not any of our faults either - we are limited by the structures of the traditional snake startup draft and the scarcity of ideal players that leave much to be desired when we first see our lineups. That’s why trading is so much fun! It’s not only the art of negotiating and the thrill of the deal but also the opportunity to take our rosters to whole new levels. The problem is that this road has many more paths to peril and destruction than glory.

It is pivotal to establish above all else that we need to leave a lot of room for error. As much as I believe in the power of data it’s important to temper expectations on what analytics can do for us today. I have a great deal of respect for anyone wanting to wrangle with the multiverse of unpredictable variables inherent in football, but we cannot forecast too much certainty on injuries, or if a player is going to breakout/fall off, if a new coach/scheme is going to be effective, or even which NFL teams are going to be bad! Even when we have a consensus view as a fantasy community, real-life football personnel like to remind us how often their thoughts are not aligned with ours.

We cannot avoid the impact these variables have on our fantasy football teams because they are out of our control. The only thing left for us to focus on is our decision-making. I believe the best results come from marrying a process of preparation with a commitment to patience in trading. If nearly everyone you are playing against is operating off the same ADPs, pieces of team news, and player projections, then the only angle left to pursue is towards your fellow leaguemates themselves. The following lessons are principles that will serve you well in remaining steadfast and calculated in trading throughout the fantasy season. There are of course exceptions to each of these rules that are largely dependent upon league settings, but for most of these examples please consider them in the context of players/picks of consequence and high value.

Learn from the Past

Before we get into the principles, we are going to take a painful trip (fun for you) down memory lane with my past dynasty leagues. I reviewed the off-season (from renewal until the 1st game of the regular season) trades of three different dynasty leagues that I participated in 2021 and 2022. The first league is 1QB with 42 off-season trades I appraised in 2021 and 36 trades in 2022. The second league is SuperFlex with 14 off-season trades I graded in 2021 and 17 trades in 2022. The last league is also SF with 1 offseason trade in 2021 and 15 trades in 2022. I did not include startup pick trades in my sample. I evaluated each trade by awarding one side a positive grade if I deemed it a clear-cut win. On average, only 1/10 of the trades I reviewed were either positive for both managers or had negligible results. There were a few key takeaways I gathered from this exercise:

• Very few teams won more than 50% of their trades.

• The teams that won the championship either didn’t trade in the offseason or won more than 50% of their trades.

• The most apparent takeaway - the teams that were focused on pick acquisition accounted for the most won trades.

• Not all leagues are the same - both SF leagues I reviewed had a higher percentage of won trades on the non-playoff side of the league (where picks were the focus), compared to the 1 QB league where the vast amount of won trades were accounted by playoff teams (where players were the focus). This makes sense considering QB’s and picks are a much higher value in SF leagues vs 1 QB leagues.

• The teams that committed to hoarding picks through 2021-2022 are amongst the most intimidating rosters going into 2023.

It’s All About Timing

Regardless of how you play fantasy football, I would like to advocate adding a Risk-Adverse philosophy to your repertoire, where the focus is not only weighing what historical data has taught us (the odds something will happen), but mainly considering the multitude of things that can go wrong with a trade. We are limited by the perceived value of the current players and draft capital at our disposal, which in turn limits the chances to execute trades, and even fewer chances to strike out with bad trades before we find ourselves in a tough spot. But it isn’t enough to think of trades as ‘at-bats’ - to hit a home run you also need to consider 'when to swing.' We will cover when to swing in the next edition of this series Proactive Trading - Fostering the Right Deal.

DON’T SWING at Championships early in the off-season - Engaging in an arms race during the off-season for the most dominant starting lineup at the expense of your most valuable draft capital is a massive risk that often doesn’t work. It’s a bad bet to gamble with your picks on players before the NFL Draft, Free-Agency, or Pre-Season injuries in hopes your targeted players don’t lose value. 

DON’T SWING too hard at the Elite Skill-Positions - It’s one thing if you are only going up one tier between players and the investment is tolerable. But putting 2-3+ high draft pick eggs into one basket that can get hurt, underperform, or have valuable touches taken away by another player is a great way of really setting your team back. It wasn’t too long ago that Jonathan Taylor was routinely being traded away for 3+ 1st-round picks. And despite remaining an RB1 in dynasty, the winds have changed on JT’s value following his abysmal 2022 season and you’ll be lucky if you can trade him for more than half his former value. The same can be said about Kyle Pitts, but I am hopeful for his situation to improve and his value to bounce back.

Of course, there are players like Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, and CeeDee Lamb that people will champion as exceptions to the rule. As much as I love these players and recognize the WoRP (wins over replacement player) they bring, the gap advantage isn’t the same as the elite QBs of the world have in most SuperFlex leagues over just about every other player, or Kelce once had over every other tight end. It is my preference to down-tier Jefferson and Chase into another elite WR with a plus on top or into an elite QB in an SF league.

The Iron Bank

Draft Capital is king in dynasty football. High draft picks (1.01-1.06) predominantly increase in value throughout their lifespan because the picks themselves can’t get hurt. They are also bolstered by the NFL Combine and Draft during a period when fantasy managers are starving for anything football-related. Lastly, they are attached to young prospects that we hope will dominate in the professional league. When you stockpile enough of these picks doors start opening and very often the best players become available to you for trading. The only catch to the Iron Bank approach is that it often requires an immediate commitment to a Rebuilding strategy at the inception of your league. 

In a full-scale rebuild, the main assets retained are cornerstone QBs, draft capital, and the skill players who have not yet crescendoed in value. I would further expand this to tight ends who still have three-plus years of elite play left in 1.75-2 pt TE Premium leagues. Any other player on your squad should be put on the trade block with a price tag in mind. In this type of rebuild, you don’t foresee making a title run either this year or next year, but if done correctly then the third year is when you put the league on notice. Given this time frame, it doesn’t make much sense to target running backs given their shelf life or elite WRs that have peaked in value and would be more useful as assets that could be broken up into multiple high-valued pieces.

Your main objective in rebuilding is to feed and protect your war chest of highly valued picks. This means controlling the market on early to mid-rookie picks while rebuilding (3-4+ 1sts per class is ideal). One simple move to get this strategy rolling is to trade away any projected late 1st (1.10-1.12) or early 2nd round picks to a desperate manager for their next year’s first-round pick. It’s a better bet that the late pick you traded away will either turn into a better pick next year or can be traded for a better player in-season than the rookie you would have otherwise spent it on whose hit rate of a future top season is historically half the odds of a top 6 rookie player. 

With this goal in mind, it is also advantageous to trade away the older, productive assets that won’t likely see the day you make a title run and whose point-scoring works against your odds of capturing a top pick in your upcoming rookie draft. This strategy works well when employing a passive trading mindset considering the peak value of these productive veterans is often mid to late into the fantasy seasons when championships hang in the balance. Just be sure to not sell great vets at a discount - be patient and wait for the need to arise late in the season (they always do).

Fade The Hype

The most common pitfalls I see that ensnare managers is when they deplete their caches of draft capital to go on spending sprees of the highest market-value players (which can often be less productive than their more experienced/cheaper vet counterparts) or overvalue the impact an incoming rookie will have on their fantasy production. In terms of the first trap, it can be quite easy to abandon the Iron Bank strategy when you have 8-10 1st round picks burning a hole in your pocket and the off-season drags on with no football in sight. Very rarely are these resources allocated towards the correct pieces for roster construction and with the proper amount of depth to endure a full fantasy season. Instead, they are often spent on the shiniest toys.

Just as tempting is the emotional draw rookies can have on our heartstrings. Peter Howard (@pahowdy) is the best in the industry regarding grounding our expectations of incoming rookies and their historical hit rates. His findings suggest based upon data between 2010-2021, that on average there are 2 QBs, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, and 2 TEs that are selected in the first three rounds of the NFL draft that have at least 1 top 12 fantasy season per rookie class. Overall, your odds of hitting on a top 12-24 contributor in the first round of your rookie draft is about the same as a coin flip. Those odds are cut in half for each subsequent round of your rookie drafts, with some positions faring much better than others (RB/TE being your best bets).

Following your rookie drafts, do not squander next year’s draft capital buying up all the rookies you missed out on because of some overzealous beat reporter who claimed that Trey Sermon or Terrace Marshall was the next great thing (it still hurts). You especially want to be wary of trading for any rookies selected in the 3rd round of the NFL Draft or later with risky profiles by waiting until the Pre-Season dust settles and the final depth charts are cemented (I’m looking at you Isaiah Spiller). Even if you suffer pre-season injuries it’s best to exercise restraint and fade the noise.

Final Kernels of Wisdom

Don’t shoot yourself in the foot by:   

• Trading away good profile/good situation rookies too soon (unless a 1st Rd pick is involved, hold).

• Trading away young, productive players after just one season.

• Trading top dollar for a player that hasn't done much for multiple healthy seasons and the community has written off (later career breakouts are incredibly hard to predict).

• Trading away your best starters before trying to trade your backups.

• Trading away your best picks (1sts & 2nds) initially - start with smaller trades with 4ths & 3rds before ramping up to the higher picks before the trade deadline.

• Trading away all your shares of a talented & young player because of a frustrating injury history. There isn't much sense in selling at a panicked discount, especially if you are rebuilding anyway. Deebo Samuel taught me this lesson.

• Trading away valuable assets for pricey RBs early on.

• Trading away picks before you confidently know their value.

• Trading away top dollar for non-elite QBs.

The Hardest Choices Require The Strongest Wills

There is nothing sexy about patient trading, nor is it fun donating to your league pot for multiple years while rebuilding in the hopes of “next year is my year!” With that being said, adopting a rebuild strategy is a much easier pill to swallow when 25-30% of your other leagues are in “win-now” mode. Pairing this with a Portfolio Approach and diversifying the players across your various leagues should offer enough variety to keep your hands from becoming too idle. But don't confuse passive trading with being lazy; there is a lot of groundwork and research to be done throughout the off-season to help prepare yourself for the upcoming season. In today’s leagues, it requires a Thanos level of commitment, preparation, execution, and patience to win (and luck). Stay the course, and at the end of all your labors, you can finally rest and watch the sunrise on multiple championships.

The Dossier

Week 16 Dossier

The Great Regret - Lessons Learned From 2023

Debriefing

“I can’t believe I … if only I … how could I … I wish I had done things differently.” What happens out in the field is in the hands of an agent. They must be prepared so that they can endure and survive any obstacle in their path. A life dedicated to such rigorous standards is defined solely by success. Having the best intel, the greatest tech, and the most favorable circumstances can often lead to a sense of invincibility. Unfortunately, sooner or later, everyone encounters something they never trained for: failure. 

Circumstances beyond our control or critical errors we made on our own are learning opportunities all the same. In a game that is growing more sophisticated, learning from defeat is a rite of passage. Consider the following lessons, which come from a variety of different leagues throughout the 2023 season:

Startup Drafts

Outside of trades, there’s nothing quite as humbling and humorous as looking back on start-up drafts. It is spectacular how many drafted players completely fall short of expectations. Trying to find rhyme or reason why certain picks worked out and others failed miserably is an exercise in futility. But if we attempt to understand, here are a few key takeaways:

• Make Auction Drafts the Standard - Managers who have a plan going into their drafts, are trained in proper roster construction, exercise financial restraint, and adapt their strategy based upon the needs of their competitors will trump their leaguemates who operate purely on player evaluation. If you are drafting with a community that relies heavily upon consensus rankings, or tools like WoRP, it can be very easy to know how far to push the envelope on bids and quickly deplete the banks of your competition. Overall, the best managers draft just enough at their cornerstone positions and maintain a financial advantage throughout the draft by forgoing a top-heavy team. This allows them to clean up in the startup with multiple shots on players who are at the back end of tiers.

• Balanced Drafting - Some of the most successful rosters from this season were fearless in drafting both productive aging veterans and high-profile rookies. The key is having flexibility with players that can be traded with either contenders or rebuilders. Having name-value rookies that can be flipped comes in handy if some of your veterans have a renaissance season and push your team to the top of the standings. The inverse is also true if your team isn’t quite ready to compete but you can still trade away any productive vets to contenders for top-dollar. Picking a direction from the start and only drafting a win-now or young team comes with massive drawbacks. There aren’t any managers who are good enough at drafting to be completely self-sufficient without any help from others; they will miss on a lot of players. Contenders do not help other contenders with trades, in the same way, rebuilders aren’t doing any favors for other rebuilders; both sides hoard their resources from their immediate competitors. If we hold this to be true, the only way to further our positions in the league is by appealing to our leaguemates who have differing directions with pieces that align with their goals. 

Early Off-Season (Week 17-NFL Playoffs)

Players who were cut from their NFL teams during the regular season or have been long retired are finally dropped from fantasy rosters. Carefully review the Week 15 Dossier: “Fantasy Pruning - Preparing Your Off-Season Roster” to get a head start on the upcoming season. This is a relatively dead period, but one takeaway from this small window includes:

• From Heroes to Zeroes - The final weeks of the NFL season and the Playoffs are the most magical time in all of sports. During this period, players make or break their teams’ seasons and become household names for better or worse. Inevitably, a player flying below most fantasy radars has an incredible performance that hooks the hearts of the massive audience that tunes in. Players such as Gabriel Davis, Jamaal Williams, and Jarrett Stidham catapult themselves up fantasy rankings following blowup performances. A long-held belief in fantasy circles is that players who perform well during this critical period are rewarded with a larger role and greater opportunities the following season. Perhaps the player was buried deep in a depth chart behind other players or was previously injured, but they finally shine brilliantly once given the opportunity. These narratives, mixed with the emotions of the playoffs, create a persuasive story that unfortunately becomes more myth than reality the following season. Take advantage of the hype and sell these fringe players with very little track record for picks before draft season is in full effect.

Draft Season

The greatest time of the year for fantasy players is the unbearable suspense that builds between the Senior Bowl, the Scouting Combine, and the NFL/Fantasy Rookie Drafts. Managers hitch themselves to rookie prospects throughout their entire draft process, building them up to Olympian heights, and making sure everyone in the space knows exactly how they feel about a player. Our Agency’s process for rookie evaluations and attacking the draft is one of the most effective, which we will disclose in full detail in the future, but there are some lessons from this past season to remember for 2024:

• Scheme & Opportunity - It isn’t enough to only watch college film to understand the strengths and weaknesses of these prospects or to implement the latest analytics to discover the next bulletproof prospect. As an entity that spends its entire Spring searching for the best data to build out its rookie rankings, we have found that the best evaluators in the entire space were intimately knowledgeable of the scheme and concepts that these prospects ran in college, but most importantly, the X’s & O’s of their new coaches in the NFL. It has been a top priority of this Agency to investigate how a prospect will be incorporated into a coach’s system and if they are capable of rising through the ranks to make a fantasy impact. With former coaches and players breaking into the space to pull the curtain back, no longer is this knowledge hidden. With the amount of research that is poured into these future staples of the NFL, running a dynasty team in today’s space requires a master’s degree level of dedication. With this level of commitment, it is crucial to use your valuable time listening to those who go beyond merely giving their opinions, but instead focus on teaching their process and take the time to break down the “How’s” & “Why’s.” Matt Harmon (Reception Perception), Brett Kollmann (The Film Room), Noah Hills (NoahMoreParties), and the Underdog Network have established themselves amongst the best evaluators in the entire field for years now. We have recently added Steve Smith Sr. (CUT TO IT) and JT O’Sullivan (The QB School) to this group of trusted consultants. Incorporating the work of these individuals into the rest of your trusted process is one of the best ways to take your game to the next level.

Training Camp

We often look to OTA’s and Minicamp as the first whispers of intel for projecting the upcoming season. But is this time of year as essential for fantasy purposes as we make it out to be?

• Fade the Noise - Conjectures from Beat Reporters, propaganda from the Twitter hive, and the idle hands of fantasy players can often lead to some of the most regrettable trades during the fantasy season. For every report or trade that is spurred on by camp hype, there are twice as many trades and 10 storylines that completely fall short of what was advertised. It was previously this Agency’s stance to avoid trading valuable draft capital for high-cost players during this time of the season, except for an elite QB. After 2023, we suggest going a step further in exercising the utmost restraint by avoiding trades for ANY players! We will be discussing in future reports the correlation between the types of assets involved in trades and how often managers “win” these deals, but in short: the players that focused on pick accumulation in their trades (in SF leagues) won more often than not and typically built the most competitive rosters compared to those who focused on player acquisition. This was especially true of teams that sought after rookies in hopes of early career production. You’re better off filing away in your memory bank the “Calvin Ridley” camp storylines and not revisiting them until week 3 or 4 of the regular season. 

Pre-Season

Most agents are smart enough to treat this month as nothing more than a dress rehearsal that has little bearing on the actual season. But is there any other info we can extract at this time?:

• Flexible Roster Construction - In the same vein as the previous point, it was strongly held that the weeks immediately preceding the NFL kickoff were a critical time to apply any finishing touches to your roster construction. This urge to be in “perfect” roster construction may have driven some agents to be overzealous and spend valuable draft picks on players they deemed essential (such as a 3rd/4th QB or 2nd workhorse RB) to gain an advantage over their competitors. Countless 1st round picks were spent on these assets during this time of the year so that agents could feel secure. Every year we are quickly reminded how brutal and unforgiving this sport is in week 1, especially at the QB and RB position. This Agency does not want to overcorrect and suggest that agents should be too far separated from optimal roster construction heading into the season. This would be risky considering most managers are unwilling to part from difference-making assets early in the season if they view them as keys to their future championship. Going into next season, we recommend a far more relaxed and flexible approach to optimizing your rosters. This may include only having one player who can hold down the fort at each position and a decent group of seasoned vets for depth heading into the regular season. Being only 1 difference-making QB, RB, WR, and/or TE away from optimal construction is not a dreadful place to be considering the high variance and attrition that occurs yearly. Wait until the mid or late part of the season before you decide to start pushing your chips on these premium players to optimize your rosters. 

Early Regular Season

After nine months' worth of hard work and careful planning, everyone enters the season wide-eyed and hopeful. Then the injury reports start piling up. Agents hold their breaths and pray they can avoid the same fates as their leaguemates who quickly start losing players. Simultaneously, they watch in disbelief as their prized assets are outperformed by mid-round dinosaurs, and Super Bowl favorites are quickly dismantled by teams no one expected to be competitive. Amid this chaos, there is some valuable instruction:

• Busts are Unavoidable, but Holding them is a Choice - Players like Bryce Young and Quentin Johnston may have been similarly ranked to other prospects like C.J. Stroud and Zay Flowers, but it didn’t take long after the Pre-Season to realize that they were not ready to make a fantasy impact and were not in position to succeed considering their coaches and their offenses. If you are competing, it is essential to spot the warning signs early so that you can trade these types of assets before your leaguemates are scared off. The Week 4 (WR), Week 6 (TE), Week 8 (QB), and Week 12 (RB) Dossiers all contain the essential “Bona Fide” metrics this agency uses to assess a player’s usage and production. Dive into the content of the specialists mentioned in the “Scheme & Opportunity” section above and decide if these players are in a position to turn things around this season or not. Lastly, use PFF to measure a player and team’s performance against the rest of the league. It doesn’t take a skilled operator to understand a QB who ranks dead last in every major category, a skill-player who isn’t being used, or a player in an offensive system with the worst grades in the league is a liability that must be dealt with swiftly and traded away. Holding onto accolades, such as a player’s draft capital, may temporarily insulate your asset for trading purposes, but it has zero bearing on a player’s production or environment. 

• Target Backup RBs - Our analysts are still experimenting with this theory, but one possible way to deal with attrition and injuries is to acquire players at a discount BEFORE they step into a starting role. Since we lack the technology to forecast the future with usage and injuries, we must be selective with the type of assets we target. Limit the candidate pool to players who are part of offenses with effective rushing attacks (and offenses that are successful as a whole), RBs who are talented (especially dual-threat weapons that can run & catch), and players who are given 30-40% of the snaps and touches. These types of players can often be had for 3rd or 4th-round draft picks during the season. 

Mid-Season & Third Quarter

Our Agency does not have any discoveries or breakthroughs to report from this portion of the season. However, we can confirm that it is essential to stay informed on the status of your players via the WoRP tool and the resources mentioned earlier in this report. We highly recommend a “Show of Force” assessment of your roster (as laid out in the “Week 10 Dossier”). Lastly, we cannot stress highly enough to remain restrained & calculated with trading your draft capital throughout the season. Staggering which draft picks you are willing to trade throughout each quarter of the season and saving the most premium picks for last yielded extremely promising results. Unfortunately, regular season performance does not guarantee playoff success.

Fantasy Playoffs

Competing in 12 leagues this year, 8 waltzed into the playoffs with strong hopes of a championship. These rosters were built far more optimally than the competition (hardly any waste/”zeros”), they featured multiple elite WoRP players at nearly every position, and to ensure victory, many of these rosters were depleted of draft capital to secure depth pieces and other top assets with the most favorable schedules. But despite the best efforts and resources, only 4 of these 8 rosters are in the championship. Having 50% of your playoff teams in the championship is nothing to scoff at - the 1st place prizes will more than double the total investment for the 2023 fantasy campaign. But as an Agency that hates to lose more than it loves to win, and is ultimately judged by its failures, it is extremely difficult to overlook two of the rosters that fell painfully short in big-money championships and are now only potentially doubling instead of quintupling their investment.  The following lessons unfortunately arose when the stakes were the highest: 

• Schedule - This first point may seem trivial, but operating in a world that is constantly vying for your time, especially during the holiday season in which these fantasy playoffs take place, it is essential to set adequate time aside for waivers and setting your lineup. In one of these big-money leagues, we had picked up the red-hot Demarcus Robinson, intending to start him. The Rams were playing Thursday night football, so it was important to spend the necessary time to have my playoff roster squared away before the game. However, that night our regular plans had changed and we became preoccupied with hosting some close friends of ours. Carried away with conversation, we had completely forgotten to set our lineup and the game was well underway before we realized. This error cost our starting lineup an extra 10 points. During the playoffs, be sure to create alarms or calendar events before your pivotal matchups so that you can devote yourself to setting your lineup. This is one of the many reasons Best Ball is superior to Lineup leagues, but such is life. 

• FAAB & Keep-Away - Having the biggest FAAB budget in the playoffs remains the most underrated advantage a competitor can have. Like clockwork, there are league winners who emerge from the waiver wire late in the season. It is also common for many playoff teams to limp into the playoffs with injury-riddled rosters and $0 in FAAB. You may not need to start assets like Joe Flacco, Jake Browning, Mason Rudolph, or Demarcus Robinson, but picking up these players and blocking your competitors' access to these lifelines is one of the savviest tactics an agent can pull off.
  However, we learned the hard way that it is vital to maintain a tight grip on the waivers after the first run. In the same league as the Demarcus Robinson error, our opponent was pitifully weak at TE, with only Dalton Kincaid on their roster (who was coming off a 0.00 pt game), and had $0 in FAAB. In an effort to block them, we put in waivers for Hunter Henry, Tanner Hudson, and Michael Mayer, and we dropped Dalton Schultz to make room. Foolishly, we did not consider that our opponent would subsequently target Schultz, and instead of making a claim to pick them back up, we allowed our opponent to acquire Schultz uncontested. The Robinson error, combined with Schultz’s #8 TE performance for that week, was just enough to send us home packing with $0 in prizes and keep us out of a championship worth thousands of dollars. Brutal.       

• Take the Production, LEAVE the Market Value - The final takeaway, and the lesson that spurred the creation of this report, originates from the other league that fell just short of a championship. This league encapsulated the best of our Agency’s process and completely overwhelmed the competition all season long. Just before our matchup, we sought to spend the very last of our draft capital on assets with prime matchups and to strengthen any possible weaknesses. The two weakest positions heading into the Semi-Finals were QB (Tua, Goff, Browning, Geno, Howell, and a last-minute waiver pickup of Mason Rudolph) and TE (Engram, Ferguson, Taysom, and Logan Thomas). We had negotiated a deal to send our last draft pick of consequence for either Dalton Schultz or Joe Flacco plus Derrick Henry. With six quarterbacks and only four tight ends in a start 2 TE league, we believed the TE position was the bigger need. But that isn’t the whole truth of the matter: in full transparency, the factor that ultimately led us to choose Schultz was weighing future dynasty value over current production value. We were confident that our current roster could easily defeat our competition and didn’t want to be weighed down with dead assets in the off-season. Further contributing to this foolish decision was ignoring how poorly our QBs, such as Howell, had been playing. It can be easy to tell yourself after a few bad games, “They were great earlier in the season, they can turn it around, no reason to do anything rash and panic!” Looking back, we recommend a far more proactive approach that treats these slumps far more seriously. There was no reason we couldn’t have offered the pick, Howell, and perhaps another player to receive the entire trio of Schultz, Flacco, & Henry. Both of these careless perspectives, along with facing Gabe Davis, Christian McAffrey, and Amari Cooper in the Semi-Finals, led to our close defeat.

Conclusion

There is a lot this Agency can be proud of from its 2023 campaign - this has been by far the most successful 12-month span of operations in our entire history. Our success is due in large part to the wonderful resources we relied so heavily upon and the great minds that created them. But to take full advantage of these materials, it took many years of trial and error to better understand how to operate successfully in the fantasy field. The goal of this Agency is to fully pull back the curtain, disclose our entire process, and leak our most coveted trade secrets to equip our agents. Our ultimate goal is to create top-tier operators who are discerning, self-reliant and can contribute their own unique skill sets to an ever-growing field. Stick with us at the South Harmon Agency, we have far more for you to learn and the training never stops.

Week 15 Dossier

Fantasy Pruning - Preparing Your Off-Season Roster

Red Herring

There are various schools of thought on how to run a roster. Some have enough resources that can be deployed to overwhelm their competitors. Others rely on skillful manipulation to gain the upper hand. Regardless of how you achieve your goal, it cannot be argued that mission success can only be achieved through efficiently managing your assets. In our line of work, we carefully plan for the scenarios that may arise, but we do not waste valuable resources chasing the ‘what-ifs?’ Countless agents meet their doom because they were unable to make the cold and calculated decisions of what was best for the mission. They became too attached, always believing that every single asset was the key. In a game that relies upon quick reflexes, it is essential to understand the difference between an asset and a liability. The following principles can be applied in your startup drafts and throughout the regular season, but given the time of year, there will be an emphasis on how to best manage your rosters heading into the off-season. With this training, you won’t hesitate to pull the trigger.

Roster Construction - The Golden Rule of proper roster management is optimizing your Roster Construction. The general idea is that your league’s unique roster and scoring settings should inform which positions to prioritize and how many at each position to carry on your roster. Understanding your league settings, weighing the pros & risks of each position, and knowing the market are all considerations for optimized roster construction. But the following is a good place to begin:

The first step is to utilize Dr. Koopa’s WoRP Calculated Optimal Roster Construction tool through the WoRP Calculator. With the “Roster Efficiency” being set to “High,” click the “Adjusted Roster Construction” icon if your league is Lineup or the “True Roster Construction” icon if your league is Best Ball. Finally, engage WoRP by clicking “Calculate WoRP.”

The number of players at each position in the optimal roster construction should add up to the total number of starting and bench spots your roster allows. The “Droppable” position is what it describes: it’s the number of players whose WoRP production can typically be replaced through the waiver wire/free agency. But what do you do with recommendations that are in decimal points? 

If you simply round up any position that is above .5 or round down any position that is below .5, you will inevitably have too many or extra roster spots to play with. If you want to apply the same percentage of players for your droppable as you have at every position, then you can simply use the following formula:

The Optimal Position # divided by The Total # of Roster Spots = The Position % multiplied by The Optimal Droppable # = The Remaining Roster Slots for Each Position

4.08 / 35 = 0.12 x 5.33 = .64 QBs
7.17 / 35 = 0.20 x 5.33 = 1.07 RBs
6.17 / 35 = 0.18 x 5.33 = 0.96 TEs
12.25 / 35 = 0.35 x 5.33 = 1.87 WRs

The number of Droppable players is typically negligible, so the above formula is completely optional, especially if your roster is not competing. The most important aspect to consider when optimizing a roster is viewing the WoRP Roster Construction Tool as a guideline rather than a strict doctrine. The strength you have at each position and your league markets will have the biggest influence on your roster construction in addition to your league’s scoring settings. With this in mind, let us explore some various scenarios to fill in the gaps.

QB - Last year in 2022, a record 64 different starting QBs played in the regular season. As of December 11th, 2023, there have been 55 different starting QBs this season. What many perceive as a ‘Dark Time’ when it comes to the most important position for SF leagues, the Agency instead sees opportunity. 

Using the above Roster Construction as an example, it is advised to roster five QBs if one of the Droppable players is to be considered a QB. Either during your startup draft or at some point before the season begins, three of these five QBs should have job security and upside for the following reasons: 

• An early season injury will not completely derail your team if you have an extra QB that can be played.

• There is yearly volatility in production where only 60% of the top 12 QBs from the year prior repeat as a top 12 finisher the following year (only 69.17% repeat as top 24 QBs).

• Taking three starting QBs will force a league competitor to play with only two QBs.

Rostering three difference-making QBs in an SF league is the MINIMUM recommendation. In the world our agents operate in, the boundary on QBs has moved. 

Top-tier operators who win championships have as many as five to six starting QBs that they use to completely overwhelm their competition. To achieve this status, our agents must push the envelope in acquiring mid to lower-tier QBs during the season, especially after a season-ending injury occurs to a starting QB. Using WoRP to know which players to target and the principle of Pick Restraint (holding your 3rd-rd pick until 1/4 into the szn, 2nd-rd pick halfway into szn, 1st-rd pick 3/4 into szn), many league-winning QBs can be acquired under the 1st-rd pick price tag and for as little as a 3rd-rd pick. These players are cheap because they do not carry long-term dynasty stability, but “long-term” thinking is exploitable when championships are on the line. But what if you want to acquire these players for even cheaper?

Contrary to popular belief in not rostering ‘zeroes’ (backup players who are nearly guaranteed to score zero points due to the lack of playing time), there are certain backup QBs who are worth targeting. The following criteria will help you identify these potential difference-makers BEFORE they start and their prices shoot up:

• They must be a backup (do not waste valuable roster slots on 3rd-string QBs until injuries shake up the depth chart)

• They have prior starting experience in which they produced adequately as a starter (Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco, Gardner Minshew, etc.)

• If none of these experienced veterans are available, turn your focus to backup QBs who:

  • Are on high-powered offenses, or

  • Excelled in the Pre-Season, or

  • Playing behind older/under-performing QBs who can be potentially benched
    

When 64 different QBs start during the season, it is no longer irresponsible to roster two to three of these types of players given the importance of the position, the attrition we have seen over the last two seasons, and their instant production/trade value should they see an opportunity. With all of these things in consideration, agents should head into the offseason prioritizing backup QBs who are under contract in 2024 to fill any open roster slots. If not for these reasons, one may take this approach to roster construction simply by default because of the volatility of the other positions, which we will explore now.

WR/RB - Heading into this season, it was the general operating procedure to prioritize WRs in best ball leagues. Their high upside and propensity for explosive plays being captured into your starting lineups is what makes the position so perfect for the best ball format.  However, after a certain range of WRs, their volatility makes them a liability in lineup leagues compared to RBs. In Lineup leagues, it is paramount to have clarity on the usage of your players. For this reason, it is often better to roster a backup RB over a team’s 2nd/3rd best WR in lineup because you’ll have no way of knowing when to start the WR (even an injury ahead of them in the depth chart doesn’t guarantee touches). A starting RB on the other hand has a far higher likelihood of guaranteed touches and scoring on goal-line opportunities compared to a WR. Whether it is an unfair opinion or not, the RB position has been devalued given their fragility and the lack of production drop-off between a starting RB and their backup. Given the probability that many starting RBs during the season may miss multiple games during the season, it is the Agency’s stance to roster talented backup RBs who can be confidently deployed should the starter miss time over a 2nd/3rd WR whose start in a lineup league is far more a shot in the dark.

Stick to the following parameters of roster construction when you’re close to starting the regular season or are in the middle of it:

• It should go without saying that only talented players should be rostered; a terrible backup will likely be leap-frogged by a more talented 3rd-string player or an incoming free agent

• Prioritize backup RBs that will get touches or offer a different skill set than the starter; surprising split shares can develop throughout a season

• WRs that see less than 20-30% of the snaps are likely cut candidates 

• Veteran RBs at the bottom of your league-mates roster are amongst the easiest assets to trade for and can often be ‘throw-ins’ on bigger deals. 

The balancing act of rostering a competitive squad with RBs & WRs and being liquid/flexible with picks completely changes heading into the offseason. If you are out of contention and you are still able to trade, there is one simple question to consider: “Would my league mates rather have my players or do they value their picks more? Will my competitors actively seek to acquire my players during draft season?” If your league values the pick more than the player, it may be a strong indicator to move the player off your roster via trade or cut. Any RB/WR outside the top six of dynasty rankings should be considered a candidate for trade heading into an off-season.

There are far too many unknowns heading into an offseason regarding most playmakers ranked outside the top 50 at their position and many inside the top 50 as well. For this reason, be willing to trade any of them for picks, including at a discounted price. This principle applies to contenders once the season has concluded. The time to reconsider these veteran players and depth pieces isn’t until late in the pre-season when the first depth charts are announced. Until then, prioritize picks and capitalize on rookie hype heading into and throughout the off-season. 

TE - We’ll make this short and sweet, but listen carefully because this may save your fantasy season one day: cut any TE that isn’t a starter or has a very high upside due to their draft capital/profile. They do not carry the WoRP firepower to command a place on your roster, they have the highest volatility of any position, and their price of acquisition is the least daunting. Use the leftover roster spots to carry extra QBs or anyone else who doesn’t play TE. 

Draft Picks - Hit rates and the true value of draft picks in terms of rookie selections will be covered in a future article. For the time being, the most crucial aspect for our agents to consider heading into the offseason is that draft picks are an invitation to the dance that only happens once a year. You don’t have to like dancing or rookies to appreciate that having tickets to this event gives managers the opportunity and flexibility to convert their draft currency into the resources they most desire for their squads. For this reason, it is pivotal to convert any speculative player into draft capital (which will only increase in value) and decide later during the draft season how to best utilize the asset. 

Usage Activity

The usage of a player is one of the most critical pieces of intel that we can use to our advantage. Here are some points of interest worth considering: 

Chargers vs. Raiders - The entire Raiders offense is being investigated for suspected war crimes after taking advantage of a Los Angeles Chargers team that conscientiously objected to playing defense this past week. Aidan O’Connell’s week 15 performance was night & day different from his NFL debut in week 4 versus the Chargers. Week 15 - 20/34 for 248 yards and 4 passing TDs / Week 4 - 24/39 for 238 yards, 1 INT, 1 rushing TD. Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers were among the many beneficiaries in this game who went on to combine for 3 total TDs. Despite having a tough matchup versus the Chiefs in week 16, look to Las Vegas to once again go all in on their pass-catchers should Josh Jacobs miss this pivotal divisional game.
Easton Stick’s 23/32 for 257 yards, 3 TDs, & 1 INT will likely not be remembered given how badly the Chargers defense performed in giving up 63 points. His performance was admirable considering he was playing without the Charger’s top receiver (Keenan Allen) and he received little help from their pass-catching RB Austin Ekeler, who only managed 38 total yards on 9 touches. Things will not get any easier for the Chargers as they take on the Bills in week 16.

Vikings vs. Bengals - Patiently bided his time in dormant, the sleeper cell Jake Browning has unleashed an unquenchable fury on the league since being activated. Over the last 3 weeks, Browning is 4th in fantasy PPG (23.8 pts/g), first in completion percentage (76.7% - minimum 11 passes), and first in passing yards (953 yds). We’ll see if he can keep up this amazing stretch versus Pittsburgh and Kansas City.
Nick Mullens isn’t the flashiest signal-caller in the league, but his 26/33 for 303 yards, 2 TDs, & 2 INTs was good enough for QB11 on the week. Justin Jefferson (7/10 for 84 yds), Jordan Addison (6/6 for 111 yds & 2 TDs), and T.J. Hockenson were all able to enjoy solid outings despite the change at quarterback. In addition to Addison, Ty Chandler also put together a highly productive day with 157 total yards and 1 TD versus the Bengals. Chandler may not be able to replicate this performance versus a stout Lions rush defense in week 16, but Chandler is still a worthwhile flex play if Alexander Mattison misses another week with his injury.

Broncos vs. Lions - Despite only having 25 red zone touches on the year (26th amongst RBs) and 3 goal-line opportunities, Jahmyr Gibbs has made the most of his split opportunities in arguably the 2nd best backfield tandem of 2023 (behind only Miami’s RB duo). It is remarkable how comparable Gibbs’ 2023 stats in the NFL are to his 2022 stats at Alabama: Fantasy PPG: ALB - 16.42, DET - 17.0 … Routes/G: ALB - 20.3, DET - 19.8 … YdsPerCarry: ALB - 5.7, DET - 5.7 … YdsAfterContactPerAttempt: ALB - 3.39, DET - 3.22 … Target Share: ALB - 14.7%, DET - 14.9%. Both Gibbs and Montgomery will look to keep the ground game rolling in their divisional matchup with Minnesota, whom they will play in 2 out of their next 3 games.
There isn’t much to report for the Broncos other than Courtland Sutton not scoring his customary TD. The coaching staff continues to treat Marvin Mims like the Roswell Landing and struggle to harness his alien talents. Denver will look to bounce back versus New England this week.   

Bears vs. Browns - Joe Flacco is playing like the best QB the Browns have had since the Cold War. This man is playing like there is no tomorrow with his 939 passing yards over the last three weeks (2nd in NFL) and 5 INTs (highest in NFL over the span). Facing a Stroud-less Texans team this week and a revenge game against the Jets the following week, look for Flacco to scorch the earth with David Njoku, Amari Cooper, and an elite defense who are all fighting for the honor and pride of their comrade, Nick Chubb.
The Bears did not play well against the Browns, with only 166 yards through the air. They will rectify their performance next week against an exploitable Cardinals team.

Buccaneers vs. Packers - Chris Godwin’s 155 receiving yards against the Packers was the most he’s had in a game since week 12 of 2019 and was the 3rd highest number of yards he ever recorded in his career. It was only the 3rd time in Baker Mayfield’s career to throw for 4 TDs, which he hadn’t done since week 13 of 2020. Mayfield is on pace to have the best year of his entire career. If he manages to lock up the AFC South, Baker could lock up an extension with the Buccaneers this offseason. Mike Evans continues to pile on the TDs with another score this past week. Evans is 2nd amongst WRs with 11 receiving TDs (only 1 behind Tyreek Hill) and could come close to having his best season since 2018.     
Despite playing efficiently in the first half, Jordan Love couldn’t keep up with Baker’s stellar performance but still managed 29/39 for 284 passing yards and 2 TDs against the Buccaneers. Dontayvion Wicks (6/7 for 97 yds), Jayden Reed (6/8 for 52 yds & 1 TD), and Tucker Kraft (4/6 for 57 yds & 1 TD) have each enjoyed spectacular rookie campaigns with their first-year quarterback. The Packers will hope to be one step closer to sneaking into the playoffs when they face off with the Panthers this week.

49ers vs. Cardinals - Since Week 10, Brock Purdy has led the league in completion % (71.9%), passing yards (1762 yds), Passing TDs (17), and is tied with Dak Prescott & Bryce Young for the least number of INTs during this span (2 INTs). What’s most impressive is that Purdy has accomplished all of this on only 160 attempts, which is the fewest of any quarterback who has played all six games since week 10. Purdy made easy work of the Cardinals, going 16/25 for 242 yards and 4 passing TDs.  At -200, Purdy is currently the favorite to win the NFL MVP but will have to face off against a Ravens defense that will likely prove to be his toughest matchup since week 6 versus the Browns.
Since Kyler Murray returned to the lineup in week 10, Trey McBride has been the #1 TE in the league with 17.3 PPG (PPR), comfortably ahead of Sam LaPorta (15.8 PPG) and T.J. Hockenson (15.7 PPG). McBride has also led all TEs in receiving with 425 yards over this timeframe as well. With plus matchups versus Chicago and Philadelphia to close out the fantasy season, McBride could prove to be one of the most dangerous assets on championship rosters. 

Waiver Targets

Spymaster Vanek will provide the latest intel through his America’s Game report. In terms of FAAB bidding, review your league’s previous waiver behavior to navigate the wire best. The waiver wire will become more bare as the season continues, especially in best ball formats.

• Trey Sermon/Tyler Goodson - 14 & 2% rostership, spend up to 10% FAAB (Both RBs were efficient, but it remains to be seen if Moss or Taylor will return wk. 16)

• Elijah Higgins - 13% rostership, 5% FAAB (Could be in line for a big opportunity if Trey McBride misses wk. 16)

• Mason Rudolph - 2% rostership, 10% FAAB (Mason it typically hit or miss, but if you’re desperate then maybe Rudolph can perform a Christmas miracle and save your fantasy season)

Week 14 Dossier

League Bandits

Meanwhile, at the Legion of Doom

Footsteps from a pair of rattlesnake boots echo through the abandoned warehouse. They scrape across the concrete floor before they finally come to a rest in front of a row of shipping crates, each with a glass of aged tequila resting on top. Gathered around these crates are leaders of the Asset Trafficking Syndicate, commonly known as the Dynasty Lords. With outstretched arms, the man in the boots smiles and says, “Gentlemen, thank you for being here. We have a common goal. We have fought hard to be here, but each of us knows that everything we have earned can be taken away from us in the blink of an eye during the playoffs. What I propose is that at this moment we form an organization. Bringing our resources together to strengthen our position in the league, we will share knowledge and trade away the finest assets only amongst ourselves. Let us make it known to our league that we control the championship. Inside each of these crates are the highest-valued players and picks in the league. If you place your trust in me to manage the operations, I promise that each of you will have your moment of glory, and you have my word that I will destroy anyone that gets in our way.” Each of the Dynasty Lords looked at one another nodding before they reached for the glasses glistening in front of them. Raising their drinks in the air, they proclaimed in unison, “Al Patrón!” It was at this moment that the Dynasty Lords had now become the Contender Cartel.

Usage Activity

Please examine carefully the following usage activity reports we have gathered on players from week 14:

Patriots vs. Steelers - Ezekiel Elliot’s week 14 was his best performance since week 3 of the 2021 season. Elliot rushed for 68 yards on 22 carries and had 72 yards receiving plus 1 TD on a team-high 7 receptions & 8 targets. Playing 91% of the snaps, and having one of the easiest remaining strength of schedules with the Chiefs, Broncos, and Bills, Elliot’s usage on the ground and involvement through the air could carry contenders to a championship as long as Rhamondre Stevenson remains out with an injury.
In the year of our Lord 2023, nothing can be taken for granted with the quarterback position. Despite passing for only 190 yards, Mitch Trubisky’s 2 TD & 1 INT was still good enough for QB8 on the week. But despite the wicked witch of Pittsburgh Matt Canada being vanquished, it is difficult to trust anyone in this offense when only one Steelers receiver accounts for more than 30 yards.

Buccaneers vs. Falcons - Drake London’s 10/11 for 172 scoreless yards on 76% of the snaps was the best fantasy game of his young career and good enough for WR2 on the week. London remains one of the most intriguing buys heading into the offseason ahead of the Falcon’s offseason campaign for a new QB.  
Since week 9, the only RBs to average more fantasy points than Rachaad White (19.6 pts PPR)) is Kyren Williams (24.9 PPR) and Christians McCaffrey (22.2 PPR). During this time, White leads the league in rushing attempts (109), is 2nd in rushing yards (440 yds), is tied for 5th place with 4 rushing TDs, and is tied for 1st with 2 receiving TDs. Featured on last week’s agency bulletin, one can have confidence in White’s rest-of-season performance after his 25 carries for 102 yards on the ground and 33 yards plus a TD through the air week 14 stat-line.

Rams vs. Ravens - As the best QB this week, Lamar Jackson passed for 316 yards and 3 TDs & 1 INT with an additional 70 yards on the ground. The main beneficiaries of Jackon’s performance were Odell Beckham, Isaiah Likely, and Zay Flowers, who each enjoyed at least 60 yards receiving and 1 TD. Keaton Mitchell was once again ultra-efficient: 9 carries for 54 yards. But it was actually Justice Hill who led all Baltimore backs in snaps at 42%. Hopefully, the Baltimore Ravens firing on all offensive cylinders is only a taste of great things to come for a team that aims to be the #1 seed in the AFC Conference.
Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua continue to make their case as one of the most effective and underrated WR duos in 2023. Kupp enjoyed the 2nd best performance of his 2023 campaign with 8/10 for 115 yards and 1 TD, whereas Nacua turned in a solid 5/8 for 84 scoreless yards. Leading this unit is Matthew Stafford, who has quietly been the 7th best QB since week 9, averaging 20.5 fantasy points/game. But much of this offense owes its success to their RB, Kyren Williams, who is only behind Christian McCaffrey as the most valuable rusher this season. The Rams lead back ran for 114 yards on 25 carries on 90% of the snaps.

Lions vs. Bears - For weeks, Jahmyr Gibbs has received the bulk of snaps at the RB position. That trend continued in week 14, with Gibbs seeing 63% of the snaps and David Montgomery receiving only 35% of the snaps. This could be due to the Lions’ gamescript being down much of the game and favoring the pass-catching abilities of Gibbs over Montgomery. Both RBs finished the game with similar yardage statlines: Gibbs - 11 carries for 66 yards rushing & 1 TD, 3/4 for 16 yards receiving … Montgomery - 10 carries for 66 yards rushing, 3/3 for 19 yards receiving.
The Bears on the other hand have one of the most confusing backfields in the league. D’Onta Foreman led the Chicago backfield with 55% of the snaps, followed by Roschon Johnson’s 28% snap share, and Khalil Herbert's 17% of snaps. Foreman turned this opportunity into 50 rushing yards on 11 carries and 22 receiving yards on 2 catches. It only took 14 weeks, but the Bears may have finally solidified Foreman as their most trusted back. 

Jaguars vs. Browns - Since becoming the Browns’ signal-caller in week 13, Joe Flacco is 5th in passing yards with 565 yds, tied for 2nd with 5 passing TDs, and is 11th in fantasy points/game with 19.3 points. Players like Amari Cooper, David Njoku, and Jerome Ford could all have some of their best 2023 performances yet to come with Chicago, Houston, and Jets still left on their calendar.
A top-10 TE option in all but 4 weeks this season, Evan Engram is on pace to smash last year’s season and have the best year of his entire career. Engram’s 11/12 for 95 receiving yards and 2 TDs was the 2nd best game of his career, only behind last year's week 14 performance versus the Titans. Engram must be considered a top 5 dynasty TE after back-to-back dominant seasons.

Seahawks vs. 49ers - Don’t look now, but Brock Purdy is 2nd only to Dak Prescott in the odds to win NFL MVP this year at +200. No other QBs have enjoyed the same level of consistent success the same way Purdy and Prescott have over the last six weeks of the season. Since week 9, Purdy has been 4th in points per game (22.8 pts), 4th in passing yards (1,520 yds), and 2nd in passing TDs (13). He added to his bid for MVP with a 19/27 for 368 passing yards, 2 TDs, & 1 INT performance against the Seahawks, which included 3 receivers over 75 yards receiving each (2 of which had over 125 yards receiving each). 
Despite receiving the ball from a different passer, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett remain one of the best WR duos heading into the fantasy playoffs. Lockett led all Seattle receivers with 89 yards on 6 catches, whereas Metcalf had a solid outing with 52 yards on 2 catches plus a TD. Zach Charbonnet appeared to be the furthest removed from injury and the most explosive Seattle back in this game. He had 44 yards rushing on 9 carries on 42% of the snaps, whereas Kenneth Walker III had 21 yards on 8 carries on 56% of the snaps. Perhaps another week will help Walker in his recovery from injury.

Broncos vs. Chargers - Javonte Williams did it: he scored a rushing TD (the 1st one in 2023). On 60% of the snaps, Williams ran the ball 17 times for 66 yards and had an additional 3 catches for 25 yards. Behind Williams in snaps was Samaje Perine (21%), who actually led the team in targets and catches (5/5), and Jaleel McLaughlin (19%). The TD streak continues for Courtland Sutton, who has scored in 10/13 games this season.
It does not look good for the Chargers offense with QB Justin Herbert now likely out for the remainder of the season. The only fantasy players that can survive such a shift are duel-threat RBs that can be utilized no matter the game script, such as Austin Ekeler, who had 51 yards on the ground plus a TD and 49 yards through the air on 72% of the snaps.

Waiver Targets

Spymaster Vanek will provide the latest intel through his America’s Game report. In terms of FAAB bidding, review your league’s previous waiver behavior to navigate the wire best. The waiver wire will become more bare as the season continues, especially in best ball formats.

• Nick Mullens - 9% rostership, spend up to 0% FAAB (Dobbs likely gets another start, but if he has another bad game then it may be Mullens ROS) 

• Easton Stick - 2% rostership, 0% FAAB (he’s a QB likely to start for ROS, pick him up in BB if you have the room, you never know)

• Davis Allen - 6% rostership, 0% FAAB (only Rams TE with a catch in wk. 14, viable start if Higbee misses another game)

Week 13 Dossier

12 Angry Running backs

Crossing The Line

Your senses are heightened as you look out your passenger-side window and bounce through the narrow city streets. In four unmarked SUVs, your covert ops team does its best to not draw any attention from any rooftop spotters. Based upon intel from your white-suited contact, the asset traffickers were looking to sure-up their remaining weakness at the RB position. The mission details were simple: extract the remaining RB assets before the dynasty lords, forcing them to move their picks out in the open and hopefully make a mistake. As you struggle to control your breathing, you notice the man sitting beside you is completely calm. A local advisor that you had no prior knowledge of before the mission briefing only a few hours ago. “Nothing will happen en route,” he says, “don’t worry.” You reply, “How can you be so sure?” Looking out the window he softly replies, “You’ll see.”

With the location of the RB targets in sight, you give your final commands to the team, “Let’s get our guys and get the hell out of here.” In unison, each vehicle comes to a sudden stop and your team descends upon the surrounding buildings. Unsure of where to look, you knock down each door in front of you and pursue every path that remotely looks like a trade opportunity. But every room is empty. “Status?!” you exclaim through your radio. Your team reports back, “Nothing.” Something isn’t right. That’s when you receive the transmission from base, “Abort Mission! Report back immediately with your team!”

All your worst nightmares come alive as the reports trickle in. The Dynasty Lord never intended to pursue an RB; we just blindly followed what we were led to believe. Instead, the kingpin swung for the highest WoRP WR in the league… and connected. Our analysts simply assumed the asset was impregnable and that the contender wouldn’t take on such a risk and leverage some of their best assets to acquire such a piece. The local advisor slowly walks up to you saying, “Your agency will always be one step behind unless you consider the worst possibility. A true contender will not look to wound their opponent, but would rather take away their will to fight. Things are only going to get worse.” 

Usage Activity

Due to time constraints, there will unfortunately be no recaps of the week 13 matches. Instead, carefully review the following Agency Bulletin for your 11th-hour trades.

Agency Bulletin

The following assets of interest are in various considerations for your Rest-Of-Season Mission. Elite assets will not be included in this report given their formidable prices. Do not engage in a trade until the following intel & parameters have been carefully reviewed:

The South Harmon Agency - Security Clearance will dictate access to this agency’s intel, but South Harmon operations are conducted on a daily basis with the objective of disrupting the fantasy space. Enroll in their academy as a recruit on Discord to gain access to their resources and train to become a top-tier fantasy operator. https://www.patreon.com/SouthHarmon
 
WoRP - Scoring settings & team needs will dictate which assets to pursue. WoRP is a valuable resource in not only establishing priority targets but also secondary and backup options if necessary. This resource can only be accessed through: https://www.southharmonff.com/worp

Managers to Target - Begin negotiations with managers who are on the opposite side of the standings. If your roster is rebuilding, prioritize trading with teams in the middle who are desperate to contend & whose picks have higher upside. Managers at the bottom of the standings will become more eager to trade away their players to acquire picks as the season progresses. If your roster is in the middle, negotiate with other middling teams - if you are unable to acquire players to contend, then adapt & pursue the other direction with acquiring picks.

Scouting Weeks 14-17 - Prioritize the players with the best matchups during the most critical stage of the season.  

FantasyCalc/KeepTradeCut - Where an asset ranks in the field ultimately determines its value. Dynasty Rankings and The Trade Database (which lists the most recent acquisitions of the asset of interest) are invaluable resources in leveraging suitable deals.

The Weekly Dossier -  This classified document carefully lays out weekly reports and directives based on intelligence compiled from the most advanced agencies in the field (NFL, NextGenStats, ESPN, PFF, FantasyPros, FantasyLife, PlayerProfiler, Underdog, Fantasy Points Data).

RB

There are several factors to consider when delving into the fragile RB market. Trade value, age, upside of talent, playoff schedule, and usage all impact how confident agents can be in deploying the player. Realistically, any one of these RBs can help secure mission success. With that said, inquire about the prices of all the following assets and pursue the acquisitions that make the most sense for your rosters.

Two data samples were used to examine the RB landscape this season. The first sample included the top 45 active RBs ranked by points per game. Analysts additionally used Routes/G, TPRR, Yards Created Per Touch, Evaded Tackles/G, Yards After Contact Per Attempt (YCO/Att), Elusive Rating, Athletic Traits, Dominator Rating, Breakaway Runs, TDs, Snap Share, Target Share, and Red Zone Touches over weeks 1-12 to rate these RBs. The following are the top 24 season-long RBs: 

1	Christian McCaffrey (SF)

2	De'Von Achane (MIA)

3	Saquon Barkley (NYG)

4	Kenneth Walker III (SEA)

5	Kyren Williams (LAR)

6	Jahmyr Gibbs (DET)

7	Breece Hall (NYJ)

8	Raheem Mostert (MIA)

9	Austin Ekeler (LAC)

10	Jaylen Warren (PIT)

11	Travis Etienne Jr. (JAC)

12	Bijan Robinson (ATL)

13	Rachaad White (TB)

14	Josh Jacobs (LV)

15	Tyjae Spears (TEN)

16	Brian Robinson Jr. (WAS)

17	Tony Pollard (DAL)

18	Alvin Kamara (NO)

19	David Montgomery (DET)

20	Joe Mixon (CIN)

21	D'Andre Swift (PHI)

22	Jaleel McLaughlin (DEN)

23	Aaron Jones (GB)

24   James Conner (ARI)

The second sample utilized the same metrics as the first sample but instead focused solely on the previous five weeks of the season (weeks 8-12) to determine changes in recent production and to identify the highest-performing RBs heading into the fantasy playoffs. The following are the top 23 RBs from weeks 8-12:

1	Christian McCaffrey (SF)

2	Austin Ekeler (LAC)

3	Saquon Barkley (NYG)

4	Jahmyr Gibbs (DET)

5	Jaylen Warren (PIT)

6	Joe Mixon (CIN)

7	Breece Hall (NYJ)

8	Rachaad White (TB)

9	Bijan Robinson (ATL)

10	David Montgomery (DET)

11	Keaton Mitchell (BAL)

12	Travis Etienne Jr. (JAC)

13	James Conner (ARI)

14	Brian Robinson Jr. (WAS)

15	Josh Jacobs (LV)

16	Tyjae Spears (TEN)

17	Kenneth Walker III (SEA)

18	Aaron Jones (GB)

19	Alvin Kamara (NO)

20	D'Andre Swift (PHI)

21	Tony Pollard (DAL)

22	Raheem Mostert (MIA)

23   Jaleel McLaughlin (DEN)

Primary Targets

De’Von Achane - Already one of the most talented players in the entire league as a rookie, Achane has shown elite upside albeit a small sample. Behind only Christian McCaffrey in PPG (PPR) at 20.6 pts, 2nd in yards created per touch (6.06 yds), 2nd in YCO/Att (7.26 yds), and 2nd in elusive rating per PFF (281.4). Achane’s main claim to fame is his Olympic-caliber 4.32 speed (99th percentile). Despite missing the previous four weeks due to injury and an early exit in his first game back, Achane is 10th in breakaway runs and 7th in TDs. His sub-2x 1st-round picks price tag trade window may have closed, but he is still worth pursuing given his immense upside and being virtually matchup-proof as a weapon that can be deployed on the ground and through the air. 

Kyren Williams - The biggest surprise at the RB position this year will continue to shock fantasy opponents throughout the playoffs with his 4th best 18.5 PPG (PPR). Kyren has received insane usage throughout this season, including being #1 in snap share (85.9%) and #1 in routes per game (27.7). He is tied with Kenneth Walker III for 3rd in 4.3 evaded tackles per game. After a tough matchup with Baltimore in week 14, Kyren has the great fortune of finishing the season with Washington, New Orleans, and the New York Giants. He may have the murkiest future of all the RBs on this list, but the ‘live today, gone tomorrow’ nature of the RB position may be the price paid to secure a championship this season.

Alvin Kamara - One of the most consistent RBs this year and enjoying his best season since 2020 is Alvin Kamara. He is just behind Achane at 20.5 PPG (PPR) this season and is 2nd in TPRR (33%). Kamara is 1st in target share amongst all RBs at 21.5%. The only slight concern about Kamara’s game is his slight dip in all of these categories over the last 5 weeks (18.1 PPG, 29% TPRR, 15.2% tgt share). Kamara’s remaining schedule makes up for this minor decline with matchups against the Panthers, Giants, Rams, and the Buccaneers.

Secondary Options

David Montgomery - One of the biggest risers in performance over the latter half of the season has been David Montgomery. Despite sharing a backfield with one of the most talented RBs in the league (Jahmyr Gibbs), Montgomery has averaged a respectable 17.2 PPG (PPR) thanks largely to his as the clear-cut goal-line back for the Lions (4th in TDs amongst RBs). Since week 8, Montgomery has been 3rd at the position in YCO/Att at 4.03 yards and 7th in breakaway run rate (49.5%). Montgomery will face a tough Cowboys defense in week 17, but leading up to championship week are favorable matchups with the Bears, Broncos, and Vikings. 

Rachaad White - A running back who is flying completely under the radar, likely due to his lack of market appeal, is Rachaad White. The Tampa Bay Buccaneer has been one of the best running backs since week 8, averaging the 3rd highest PPG (PPR) at the position with 18.9 pts. White has been a focal point in the passing attack, running an average of 23.2 routes per game throughout the season (4th best), and since week 8 has had a 13% target share. His 81% snap share is only behind Christian McCaffrey over the last five weeks. Agents can do far worse at the RB position compared to White’s fantasy playoffs against Atlanta, Green Bay, Jacksonville, and New Orleans.

D’Andre Swift - His PPG since week 8 may not inspire confidence heading into the playoffs (13.2 pt average since week 8 vs. 15 pt average over whole season), but Swift remains a buy in this scarce RB market. His ability as a runner has not diminished as the season has progressed (increased from 3.4 to 3.5 evaded tackles/g & from a 57.3 to a 67.2 elusive rating over the last 5 weeks), but mainly his role in the receiving game has been the major contributor to his minor downswing in points. This is due in large part to the Eagles facing the most brutal 4-week stretch any team has faced all season with the Chiefs, Bills, 49ers, and next up, the Cowboys. It would be difficult for any RB not named Christian McCaffrey to remain a focal point in an offense that is stretched to the brink with these offensive juggernauts. What makes Swift a buy is the calm after the storm: a highly favorable playoff stretch with the Seahawks, the Giants, and the Cardinals in the final week.

Backup Options:

Josh Jacobs - Josh Jacobs may not be elite in any singular category, but his well-rounded repertoire, consistency, and high-value usage are good enough to land him on the backup options. Since week 8, Jacobs has had the 4th highest snap share at the position (78%). Since week 1, the Raiders RB has been 3rd in the league with 40 red zone touches. Touches, TDs, and a favorable playoff stretch versus the Vikings, Chargers, Chiefs, and Colts may be enough for you to consider adding the young veteran RB.

Tony Pollard - Of all the RBs on this list, exercise the most caution with Tony Pollard. A player that many (including this Agency) touted as a top 5 option coming into the season, Pollard has unfortunately fallen short of those expectations but has still performed as an RB1. His increased usage in the passing game (22.2 routes/g since week 8) and 2nd highest red zone touches finally bearing fruit in the form of TDs is what bears consideration moving forward. With a remaining schedule that includes high-octane offenses in Philadelphia, Buffalo, Miami, and Detroit, Pollard could be an appealing trade target if his work in the passing game and red zone continues. 

Austin Ekeler - It may not feel like Austin Ekeler has performed well over the last 5 weeks, or the season as a whole, but with the Chargers being desperate to make the playoffs and the offense being completely devoid of weapons outside of Keenan Allen, the team has continued to rely on the dual-threat RB. Since week 8, Ekeler has been 3rd amongst RBs with 23.4 routes/g, tied for 4th in red zone touches (14), 5th in snap share (71%), 5th in target share (15.3%), and 9th in TPRR (25%). His biggest saving grace however may be the most favorable playoff schedule any RB on this list has: Denver, Las Vegas, Buffalo, and Denver. Ekeler is the oldest RB on this list, and appears to have lost a step or two, but remains a viable option given his usage & schedule if another RB can not be secured.

Up & Coming Recruits:

Jaylen Warren - Jaylen Warren would be a secondary option if it were not for the injury to signal-caller Kenny Pickett, but such is the nature of the football business. Warren has begun to separate himself as one of the more talented backs in the league. His 30% TPRR and 5.46 yards created per touch are each the 4th highest marks of all RBs this season. Warren is one of the shiftiest RBs in the league with 4.5 evaded tackles per game, which is tied for 1st along with Breece Hall. This aspect of his game is further verified in his 312.5 elusiveness rating since week 8, which is good enough for 2nd best over that span. His ability to dodge tackles is matched by his power with 5.02 YCO/Att (2nd in NFL since week 8 amongst RBs) and speed with a 10% breakaway run rate (2nd best in NFL). All three of these aspects of Warren’s game make him one of the most balanced RBs in the league.

Keaton Mitchell - The Ravens RB is one of the most intriguing prospects heading into next year. Since week 1, Keaton Mitchell has the highest yards created per touch (7.38), YCO/Att (8.35), and elusiveness rating (382.7) in the entire league at RB. Mitchell has only improved as the season has progressed with a position-high 399.3 elusiveness rating and 78% breakaway run rate over the last 5 weeks of the season per PFF. If Keaton Mitchell can keep up this spectacular run heading into the playoffs, his future could be bright as the lead RB for the run-heavy Ravens.

Tyjae Spears - In the shadow of King Henry could arise a new heir to the Titans’ RB throne. At 4.58 yards created per touch and 3.77 yards after contact per attempt, Spears is 5th and 4th best in each respective category. His 172.5 elusiveness rating is ranked 3rd best since week 8 according to PFF. Spears’ breakaway run rate of 49.4% (4th best since week 8) perfectly complements his arsenal of elusiveness and power. Spears has all the talent to reign as a productive leadback once he has been given the opportunity.

Every one of these up-and-coming RBs fits the mold of possessing game-changing agility, power, speed, and versatility. With a 2024 RB class that many anticipate will be disappointing, it would be advantageous to acquire as many shares of these three RBs as possible.

Waiver Targets

Spymaster Vanek will provide the latest intel through his America’s Game report. In terms of FAAB bidding, review your league’s previous waiver behavior to navigate the wire best. The waiver wire will become more bare as the season continues, especially in best ball formats.

• Mitch Trubisky - 17% rostership, spend up to 10-13% FAAB (Pickett could miss multiple weeks)

• C.J. Beathard - 2% rostership, spend up to 8-10% FAAB (The severity of Lawrence’s injury and Beathard’s ability to play QB are both complete unknowns)

• Parker Washington - 30% rostership, 0-1% FAAB (The severity of Kirk’s injury & the lack of clarity surrounding the JAX QB are both worth considering)

• Jameis Winston - 36% rostership, 10-15% FAAB (Matchup with Carolina may be a better option over picking up Trubisky or Beathard)

• Brevin Jordan - 37% rostership, 0-1% FAAB (Decent waiver add if Schultz misses any more time)

• Demarcus Robinson - 5% rostership, 1-3% FAAB (Has out-snapped Tutu Atwell the last 2 weeks)

Week 12 Dossier

Frenemies

Off The Record

It’s dark and you can barely make your way through the thick crowd at the Last Dance nightclub. The blasts of mariachi trumpets and electric guitars ring in your ears as you are being escorted past the stage. You reach a stairwell guarded by two more men who pat you down and grant you passage with a slight nod. You descend into an entirely new world, hidden away deep below. In it you see a long wooden bar with low-lit glass shelves and at the end of it a red leather booth with a man in a white suit.

“And who is this unexpected guest that has welcomed themself into my sanctuary? Have you decided to wake up and stop pretending to make a difference at the Agency?” the man in a white suit said. You reply, “I’m here to offer you a proposition - help you take down the competition.” The suited man bursts out into uncomfortable laughter “The last time I traded with you, I lost nearly everything! It took me over a year to recover my assets!!! But now I am the closest I have ever been to winning a championship!” he exclaimed. He tilted his head and slowly said, “But now you risk everything for us by being here. There will be consequences if the other contenders learn of our meeting.” You explain, “No one knows I am here, not even the Agency.” The man smiled and said “My father was an honest and hard-working man who started from nothing. He spent multiple years building up his assets. Then he put his trust in people like you and got in the way of the Asset Traffickers. The only thing left of him now is his orphan and the pain I inherited to piece it back together. I don’t need your help.” A few moments of silence go by before you say, “I knew your father. What happened to him wasn’t right. That’s why I am here. I want to take down the top guy and my reports are clear that you don’t have the firepower to do it by yourself. Your most valuable resources are bleeding on the IR now. How many more years are you going to come second place to them?” Slowly standing up and buttoning his jacket the man said, “Come with me.”

The man in the suit leads you through a narrow corridor before you finally reach a door. Outside, you are greeted with a mesmerizing view of a million lights flickering in the dark from the valley below. “What chance do you think you have?” the man says as he lights a fat cigar. “I can’t help you. If this Dynasty Lord wants to destroy you, they will. How can you escape the storm? No matter where you go, they can always reach you. So tell me, what do you really want?” You reply, “Information. I want to know who this contender has talked to.”  The man chuckles and says, “If you want to beat the best, it’s not enough to know what they have been doing. You need to know what their next move is.” You then ask, “And I assume you know?” Slowing puffing smoke from his cigar he smiled and said “Of course I do.”

Usage Activity

A player’s usage can have massive implications for how we attack the season. Here are some points of interest worth monitoring:

Packers vs. Lions - David Montgomery only received 27% of the snaps in this matchup, but still managed 15 carries for 71 yards and 1 TD. It was Jamyr Gibbs who received the lion’s share of the snaps with 71%, in which he had 11 carries for 54 yards rushing and 4/8 for 19 yards receiving.
Jordan Love has put together back-to-back top-10 QB performances, including 22/32 for 268 yards passing and 3 TDs (39 yards rushing) against Detroit. In most scoring formats, Love is the QB9 in fantasy, and has an appealing schedule with Kansas City being the most difficult matchup in week 13, followed by the Giants, the Buccaneers, the Panthers, and the Vikings.

Commanders vs. Cowboys - Dak Prescott has been arguably the best QB in the league over the second half of the season. Since week 6, Prescott has led the league with 18 passing TDs (5 more TDs than 2nd placed Allen & Herbert over that span), has the most passing yards per game with 312.3, and is 2nd behind Sam Howell with 1874 total passing yards. Only Josh Allen has more fantasy points at the position since week 6 (178.5 pts vs Prescott’s 169.6). During this part of the season, Prescott has been the QB1, QB3, QB2, QB1, QB17, and QB3. In a year that is filled with old WRs, expendable RBs, and detested QBs all producing at high levels, it would definitely be worth considering pursuing the dead-zone QB in Prescott ahead of his highly favorable rest-of-season fantasy schedule.
Sam Howell isn’t far behind Prescott though - he’s been the 4th best QB in fantasy since week 6 (Jalen Hurts is 3rd). Howell has an insane 295 pass attempts over this span (Allen 2nd w/ 258) for an NFL-high 1989 yards passing over the past 7 weeks. But with a bye in week 14, and tough matchups with the Jets and 49ers in weeks 16 & 17, it remains to be seen if Sam Howell can rise to the occasion to deliver fantasy glory for contenders.

Saints vs. Falcons - In this pivotal divisional matchup, each team’s best offensive players were heavily featured. For the Falcons, it was Bijan Robinson who led Atlanta to victory. Robinson’s 16 carries for 91 yards and 1 TD on the ground and 3/6 for 32 yards & 1 TD through the air (63% of the snaps) is the second promising performance in a row for the RB and should be encouraging for all fantasy owners.
For the Saints, Chris Olave and Alvin Kamara did their best to deliver New Orleans a victory. Olave was well on his way to having his best performance of the season with his 7/9 for 114 receiving yards but was unfortunately knocked out of the game with a concussion in the third quarter. Kamara continued his epic RB campaign with 15 carries for 69 yards rushing and 4 catches on 5 targets for an additional 50 yards receiving. With Olave likely to miss next week versus the Lions, Kamara could have a monster game.

Jaguars vs. Texans  - Trevor Lawrence and Calvin Ridley have seemingly sorted out their earlier season woes and have been the #2 fantasy producers at their respective positions the last two weeks in crucial divisional games. Our agents will keep a close eye on this Jacksonville team as they look to complete their AFC North tour with Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Baltimore next on their schedule.
Nothing further to report on the Texans at this time.

Buccaneers vs. Colts - This is the time of the year when certain RBs operate like runaway freight trains, barreling through any defenses in their path. Jonathan Taylor is playing his best football of the year right now - 15 carries for 91 yards and 2 TDs on 58% of the snaps this week. It will be exciting to watch both Taylor and Derrick Henry steamroll defenders when the Colts visit the Titans in their week 13 division game.
Nothing to report on the Buccaneers at this time.

Rams vs. Cardinals - In his first game coming off IR, Kyren Williams picked up where he left off and erupted as the RB1 on the week with 16 carries for 143 yards on the ground and 6 catches on 6 targets for 61 yards and 2 TDs through the air (61% snap share). Week 13 and 14 will not be easy for the Rams, as they face the Browns and Ravens, but will have much easier sledding in the fantasy playoffs with matchups against the Commanders, the Saints, and the Giants.
Marquise Brown and Trey McBride were the top receiving options for Kyler in this matchup. Brown had 6 catches on 12 targets for 88 yards receiving, whereas McBride had 7 catches on 9 targets for 60 yards receiving. Both are dynamic pass-catching weapons and figure to remain Kyler’s favorite targets for the rest of the season.

Browns vs. Broncos - David Njoku has been the favorite pass-catcher for the Brown’s QBs over the past month. Over the last 4 weeks, Njoku has led the team (min. 10 routes run sample) in TGT % (25.3%), TPRR (0.29), receptions (23), and YAC (137 yds). Only Amari Cooper has produced at a similar fantasy level as Njoku over this span of time. Njoku went 6/9 for 59 yards receiving on 85% of the snaps in week 12 versus Denver.
Despite some of the best RB metrics in the league, Jaleel McLaughlin has seemingly taken the place of Marvin Mims as yet another highly talented and underutilized weapon on this Broncos offense. McLaughlin saw a season-low 3% snap share, whereas fellow teammates Javonte Williams and Samaje Perine each enjoyed productive days with 18 carries for 65 yards and 7 carries for 55 yards plus 1 TD respectively.

Ravens vs. Chargers - There may be a change of the guard at RB in Baltimore. Keaton Mitchell was hyper-efficient with the opportunities given to him (9 carries for 64 yards rushing and 2 catches on 2 targets for 25 more yards) and out-snapped Gus Edwards by 19% of the plays (46% vs. 27%). Edwards should still maintain his goal-line duties moving forward, and for that reason is still a viable fantasy option throughout the rest of the season. The following RB report will take a deeper dive at what makes Keaton Mitchell, and a select few other RBs, so impressive this season.    

RB Bona Fides

The Running Back position is a tumultuous asset, but still necessary for winning a championship. It is for this reason that this agency has based much of our RB Program on the same rigorous standards of our QB, WR, & TE selection process. The following sample will only include the top 45 RBs sorted by PP/G and data from weeks 1-11.

PPG (PPR) - Christian McCaffrey is by far the best fantasy-performing RB in terms of points per game (24.2 pts). De’Von Achane (20.6 pts), Alvin Kamara (20.5 pts), Kyren Williams (18.5 pts), Raheem Mostert (18.1 pts), and Jamyr Gibbs (18) round out the top 6 as the top producers so far this season.

The following categories give us a glimpse at the top pass-catching RBs this season

Routes/G - Kyren Williams has been utilized heavily in the Rams' pass offense with 27.7 routes per game. Alvin Kamara (24.9), Bijan Robinson (24.2), Rachaad White (23.2), Travis Etienne Jr. (21.7), and Antonio Gibson (21.4) all edge out McCaffrey, Barkley, and Gibbs for the top 6 spots. 

Targets/Route Run - Jaleel McLaughlin is the most heavily targeted RB in the league at 36% targets per route run. Alvin Kamara (33%), Javonte Williams (31%), Jaylen Warren (30%), Keaton Mitchell (29%), and Aaron Jones (26%) are just ahead of Gibbs for the top 6 ranking.

The following categories assist in finding the best rushers this year.

Yards Created/Touch - Keaton Mitchell has been one of the most efficient RBs at 7.38 yards created per touch. Achane (6.06), Gibson (5.87), Warren (5.46), Tyjae Spears (4.58), and McLaughlin (4.53) all rank in the top 6.

Evaded Tackles/G - Jaylen Warren and Breece Hall are both tied as the shiftiest RBs this season at 4.5 evaded tackles per game. Mostert & McCaffrey both averaged 4.4 tackles evaded per game, whereas Kenneth Walker III & Kyren Williams each averaged 4.3 tackles evaded per game. 

Yards After Contact/Attempt - The most difficult RB to bring down this year is Keaton Mitchell, who is averaging 8.35 yards after contact per attempt. Achane (7.26), Warren (4.44), Spears & McLaughlin (3.77), and James Conner (3.64) round out the top 6

Elusive Rating - PFF uses some of the above categories in order to formulate their elusive rating. So to no surprise, the title for the most elusive RB in the league goes to Keaton Mitchell at a 382.7 rating. Achane (281.4), Warren (198.5), Spears (168.7), McLaughlin (123.8), and Mostert (104.3) round out the top 6. 

Breakaway Runs & TDs - In terms of big play and scoring ability, there are a number of RBs that perform very well in both categories. McCaffrey is number 1 in total TDs and number 2 in breakaway runs. Mostert has the inverse ranking being number 1 in breakaway runs and number 2 in TDs. Saquon Barkley is tied with McCaffrey in breakaway runs, but tied for 12th in TDs. Gibbs is also 12th in TDs and is 4th in breakaway runs. Travis Etienne Jr. and Brian Robinson Jr. are both 4th in TDs and 10th in breakaway runs. Achane and Walker III are tied for 7th in TDs and 10th in breakaway runs.

The following trio of categories are amongst the best in finding the most productive RBs.

Top 5 Snap Share - Kyren Williams has the highest snap share league at 85.9%, followed by McCaffrey (82.5), Barkley (80.8%), Etienne Jr. (78.6%), and Josh Jacobs (77.9%).

Top 5 Target Share - Kamara has the highest target share amongst RBs at 21.5%, ahead of McCaffrey (20.2%), Barkley (17.2%), Gibbs (16.3%), and Austin Ekeler (15.8%).

Top 5 Red Zone Touches - McCaffrey leads RBs with 56 red zone touches, followed by Pollard (47), Jacobs (40), Joe Mixon (36), and Walker III (35).

Christian McCaffrey is the only RB in the top 5 of all three categories, whereas Barkley and Jacobs are the only other RBs in at least two of the three categories.

The Agency will post an RB Bulletin next week based on this intel. 

Waiver Targets

Spymaster Vanek will provide the latest intel through his America’s Game report. In terms of FAAB bidding, review your league’s previous waiver behavior to navigate the wire best. The waiver wire will become more bare as the season continues, especially in best ball formats.

• Greg Dortch - 39% rostership, spend up to 1% FAAB (Was a favorite target of Kyler last year and has been decent the last 2 weeks since Kyler’s return)

Week 11 Dossier

Tradehunter

Dealing With A Pro

You shut the door to your small apartment, leaving the grueling five-day work trip and all of its demands behind you. Before you even take off your coat, you’re at your bar cart reaching for the Scotch your old Case Officer gifted you last Christmas. A deep exhale leaves your body as you think to yourself ‘Thank God that’s over.’ Only a brief moment of solitude passes before your phone rings. It's the Chief of Station. “Agent, there’s been a murder of a failed contender earlier this evening. I need you to go investigate the scene and then visit the coroners afterward. I’m sending you the address now.” “Sir, isn’t that for local law enforcement?” you reply. “This isn’t a regular murder, Agent. There’s evidence that ties the victim with high-level asset traffickers.” You say, “I already have my coat on sir, I’ll get right on it,” and then hang up.

The crime scene was a luxury apartment, located on the 77th floor. This victim certainly made his wealth known. Fantasy football podcasts echoed through the classy apartment from the victim’s computer - it’s too bad that none of this advice will matter anymore to the deceased. Sprawled across the dining table was the victim’s fantasy portfolio. It didn’t take long to realize that the victim was in a bad place with brutal injuries, zero draft picks, a squad on the wrong side of 30, and an empty bottle of vodka by the couch. It would appear that out of drunken desperation and boredom, they messaged the league chat craving a trade. There were no signs of a struggle at the scene - the assailant had patiently stalked their prey in DMs, fantasizing about this moment for weeks. The perp leveraged the victim’s own first-round draft pick as the murder weapon, right into their heart. As a trophy, the murderer took for themselves a top-tier QB, a league-winning WR, and to add further insult to the victim, a 3rd-round pick. This was not the attacker’s first time, nor would it be their last. 

Usage Activity

Due to limited resources and an expanded Agency Bulletin, there will not be a week 11 Usage Activity Report. Instead, the focus of this dossier will be potential trade targets at the WR position for this critical window of the fantasy season. 

Agency Bulletin

The following assets of interest are in various considerations for your Rest-Of-Season Mission. Elite assets will not be included in this report given their formidable prices. All intel for this agency bulletin was gathered via the Fantasy Points Data Suite, using the top 60 WRs ranked by fantasy points per game. Do not engage in a trade until the following intel & parameters have been carefully reviewed:

The South Harmon Agency - Security Clearance will dictate access to this agency’s intel, but South Harmon operations are conducted on a daily basis with the objective of disrupting the fantasy space. Enroll in their academy as a recruit on Discord to gain access to their resources and train to become a top-tier fantasy operator. https://www.patreon.com/SouthHarmon
 
WoRP - Scoring settings & team needs will dictate which assets to pursue. WoRP is a valuable resource in not only establishing priority targets but also secondary and backup options if necessary. This resource can only be accessed through: https://www.southharmonff.com/worp

Managers to Target - Begin negotiations with managers who are on the opposite side of the standings. If your roster is rebuilding, prioritize trading with teams in the middle who are desperate to contend & whose picks have higher upside. Managers at the bottom of the standings will become more eager to trade away their players to acquire picks as the season progresses. If your roster is in the middle, negotiate with other middling teams - if you are unable to acquire players to contend, then adapt & pursue the other direction with acquiring picks.

Scouting Weeks 12-17 - Prioritize the players with the best matchups during the most critical stage of the season.  

FantasyCalc/KeepTradeCut - Where an asset ranks in the field ultimately determines its value. Dynasty Rankings and The Trade Database (which lists the most recent acquisitions of the asset of interest) are invaluable resources in leveraging suitable deals.

The Weekly Dossier -  This classified document carefully lays out weekly reports and directives based on intelligence compiled from the most advanced agencies in the field (NFL, NextGenStats, ESPN, PFF, FantasyPros, FantasyLife, PlayerProfiler, Underdog).

WR

Top Tier Targets

At the top of the WR food chain in 2023 are Tyreek Hill and A.J. Brown. Hill leads all WRs at an insane 0.87 fantasy points per route run, far ahead of the 2nd place A.J. Brown, who registers 0.67 FP/RR. However, over the span of weeks 6-10, CeeDee Lamb has been the most dangerous WR in the league, with 0.82 FP/RR. Any three of these prized WRs could deliver a championship on a silver platter, but they would also extract a heavy cost. Garrett Wilson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Puka Nacua also carry league-winning upside according to our data, but likewise require a heavy price. Before selling your soul to attain these infinity-stone assets, carefully consider the following alternatives.

Priority Targets - Up to a 1st + 2nd in Value

Stefon Diggs - The 5th ranked WR in our data when weighing both the season as a whole and the past 5 weeks, Diggs ranks as our highest priority trade target. Diggs is 2nd amongst wideouts in routes run per team dropback (RTE% - 91.5%), 4th in air yards (1081 yards), has 9 End-Zone targets, is 5th in 1st Read % (38.2%), and 4th in 1st Downs (43). The biggest upside associated with Diggs is his remaining matchup schedule: in weeks 12-17, the Bills face the Eagles, have a bye week, then face the Chiefs, the Cowboys, the Chargers, and end the fantasy season with the Patriots. Weeks 12-16 are all matchups with ‘shootout’ potential, which could lead to massive usage for Stefon Diggs. The week 17 revenge match with the Patriots could be perfect for fantasy managers looking for a blowup game from Diggs in their championships. With dynasty rankings that range from WR8 on FantasyCalc and WR13 on KeepTradeCut, Diggs is arguably the safest and most attainable elite WR.

Brandon Aiyuk - A tier below, but carrying a huge upside, is our 15th-ranked WR. Brandon Aiyuk over the first 10 weeks of the season has the 4th highest aDOT (15 yards), the 2nd best yards per route run (3.48), and the 3rd best fantasy points per route run (0.64). Aiyuk’s numbers have slightly dipped over the last five weeks, but outside of week 16 versus Baltimore, our analysts project plus-matchups for the rest of the season for Aiyuk (@SEA, @PHI, SEA, @ARI, BAL, @WAS). At WR14 prices on KTC and WR22 on FantasyCalc, Aiyuk is ideal for any manager wanting to be boujee on a budget. 

Michael Pittman - Rounding out our priority targets is our 10th-ranked WR. Michael Pittman since week 6 has been number one in RTE% (93.7%), 4th in YAC (172 yds), and tied for 1st in the league in targets that come on design read plays (10). Pittman’s QB and rest-of-season schedule is what ultimately pushes him to third on our priority target rankings, but at WR17 prices on FantasyCalc and WR21 rankings on KTC, he is far outperforming his dynasty ranking. 

Honorable Mention - Davante Adams, 11th place rank: #1 in TGT% (30.3%), #2 in TPRR (0.31), #3 in 1stRead% (41.1%). QB play hard to bank on during this critical stage of the szn.

Secondary Targets - A Mid-Low 2nd and up to 2x 2nds in Value

Keenan Allen - At age 31, Keenan Allen is having arguably the best season of his great career as our 3rd-ranked WR in 2023. The only reason Allen is a secondary target and not a primary is solely because of his age and the large value risk that would befall any manager if Keenan were to suffer a significant injury. Since week 1, Allen is 3rd in TGT% (29.7%), 4th in TPRR (0.3), 4th in 1stRead% (38.6%), 2nd in PPR fantasy points per game (22.8 pts), and 3rd in Expected Fantasy Points per Game (20.4 pts). In addition to Allen’s age is the downside of the Charger’s remaining schedule, which will all prove to be difficult matchups. Keenan Allen managers will likely demand a 1st round pick for Allen’s production, but at WR19 prices on FantasyCalc and WR25 ranking on KTC, it may be feasible to acquire Allen from a desperate seller at cheaper prices. 

Mike Evans - As the 14th-best WR in our rankings, Mike Evans has remained one of the agency’s top targets all season long given his inexpensive value. Evans’ metrics do not jump off the page in any singular category, but instead, he ranks within the top 12-24 in nearly every major category, making him the perfect ‘under-the-radar’ league winner. In the same vein as Keenan Allen, the downside of Evans is his age and difficult remaining matchup schedule. The upside of the WR27 on FantasyCalc & WR33 on KTC resides with his consistency, talent, and QB Baker Mayfield’s affinity with throwing Evans targets while in the red zone.  

Courtland Sutton - As our 34th WR, Courtland Sutton is our lowest-ranked WR for this bulletin, but still worthy of consideration. Since week 6, Sutton is 3rd amongst wideouts in terms of air yard share (47%), is posting a respectable 26.3 TGT% (15th), and is 9th in FP/RR (0.61). And outside of their week 12 matchup with Cleveland, the rest of the season schedule for the Broncos is one of the most appealing in the league for a team that is on a 4-game win streak. As the WR39 on FantasyCalc and WR52 on KTC, Sutton and his QB Russell Wilson are performing far beyond the public sentiment. 

DeAndre Hopkins - The trend of older vet WRs continues with the 20th-ranked DeAndre Hopkins. Since week 6, the seasoned WR is 1st in aDOT (17.5 yds), 10th in YAC/REC (6.17 yds), and since week 1 is 6th in air yards (1068 yds), and 9th in expected fantasy points per route run (0.53). Like his peer counterparts Keenan Allen and Adam Thielen, Hopkins is uniquely situated as the only reliable pass-catcher on their respective teams. With a moderate rest-of-season schedule and a rookie QB, Hopkins is a mixed-bag of upside potential, but at WR48 rankings on FantasyCalc & KTC, he’s one of the cheapest assets in his tier.

Honorable Mention - Diontae Johnson, 18th place rank: since week 6 = 9th in RTE% (89.6%), 4th in AY Share (46.6%), and 5th in expected FP/G (17.7pts). Pickett and Canada are a gruesome twosome that I would prefer to not hinge my championship hopes on. 

Backup Targets - Up to 2x 3rds in Value

Adam Thielen - A perfect storm of opportunity has formed for the 33-year-old WR. The 22nd ranked WR in our data, Adam Thielen since week 1 is 9th in RTE% (88.5%), 9th in FP/G (17.8 pts), 9th in 1stDowns (38), 12th in YAC (260 yds), 13th in expected FP/G (16.6pts), and 16th in TGT% (24.6%). Given how poor the QB play has been in Carolina, it doesn’t particularly matter how favorable the rest of the season schedule is for the Panthers WRs. As the WR 41 on FantasyCalc and WR58 on KTC, it may be possible to once again acquire Thielen at the price of multiple third-round picks if he is still residing on a rebuilding team.

Odell Beckham - The 40th-ranked WR in our data, Odell Beckham has come on strong over the last few weeks of play. Since week 6, Beckham is 3rd in YAC/REC (7.88 yds), 3rd in Endzone Tgts (5), 3rd in expected FP/RR (0.63), 6th in YPRR (2.92 yds), 8th in TPRR (0.3 tgts), 11th in FP/RR (0.57 pts), 13th in aDOT (13 yds), and 22nd in air yards (389 yds). Odell Beckham has a favorable rest-of-season schedule, with multiple potential ‘shootout’ matchups. As the WR53 on FantasyCalc and the WR98 on KTC, pray that your potential trade partner only uses KTC to gauge the dynasty market and acquire OBJ for dirt cheap.  

Unique Scenario - If the first target cannot be acquired, move on to the teammate

DK Metcalf & Tyler Lockett - Seattle’s WRs are all heating up in time for the fantasy playoffs thanks to improved play from Geno Smith. If Geno can deliver clutch QB play in some upcoming prime matchups, both DK Metcalf (WR16 ranking) and Tyler Lockett (WR24) could take off. Since week 6, Metcalf & Lockett are 8th & 14th in air yards respectively, 9th & 23rd in aDOT, 16th & 26th in TGT%, and 10th & 20th in expected FP/G. DK by himself is 1st in Endzone targets (6) and 9th in YAC/REC (6.29 yds). At WR14 FantasyCalc values and WR17 KTC rankings, Metcalf will likely demand a 1st + 2nd, whereas Lockett will likely only cost a 2nd at his WR46 FantasyCalc & WR49 KTC values.  

Nathaniel Dell & Noah Brown - If the pair in Seattle are heating up, then the Houston Duo is on fire. Nathaniel “Tank” Dell (WR17 ranking) and Noah Brown (WR25) have both been elevated by the MVP-caliber play of C.J. Stroud. Since week 6, Tank Dell and Noah Brown rank 2nd & 11th in aDOT respectively and 6th & 11th in fantasy points/G. Dell by himself is 13th in RTE% (87.6%), 16th in air yards (447 yards), 10th TGT% (27.6%), 11th in TPRR (0.29 tgts), and 7th in 1stRead% (36.1%). Brown is 1st in YPRR (4.03 yds) and 2nd YAC/REC (9.22 yds). At WR20/26 values on KTC/FantasyCalc, Dell will cost anywhere from 2x 2nds to as much as a 1st-round pick. Brown on the other hand will only cost multiple 3rd round picks at WR55/64 prices on FantasyCalc/KTC. 

Waiver Targets

Spymaster Vanek will provide the latest intel through his America’s Game report. In terms of FAAB bidding, review your league’s previous waiver behavior to navigate the wire best. The waiver wire will become more bare as the season continues, especially in best ball formats.

• Jake Browning - 8% rostership, spend up to 25-50% FAAB (Burrow out ROS, Browning carries some upside as a competent backup)

• Tim Boyle/Joe Flacco - 10% rostership, spend up to 5% FAAB (If you miss out on acquiring Browning this week and Tommy DeVito from last week, then cautiously go after Boyle/Flacco). 

• Ty Johnson - 3% rostership, 1% FAAB (Bills still haven’t utilized Fournette, but they also remain as arguably the worst rushing team in the league.)

Week 10 Dossier

Show of Force

Enemies of the League

At this stage of the season, you can no longer view your league mates as friendly competitors all striving towards similar goals. There are allies, who will help you achieve your mission, and there are enemies who wish to destroy your goals. The highest-level threat known to the agency is the Asset Trafficker. These individuals specialize in the illicit trade of both high-value players and the stockpiling of draft picks. Their smuggling business includes leveraging early-projected draft picks, elite QBs, young WRs, bell-cow RBs, and ultra-productive TEs. Early after a league’s inception, these individuals will own up to half of the high-value draft picks heading into the off-season after the first dynasty championship. In the first year, they have built a network of relationships in which they have supplied the contenders with the “valuable” players they needed for their championship run. But in actuality, the contenders who fail to reach their ultimate goal now find themselves in the pocket of these Asset Traffickers who now own their entire future of draft picks. The most dangerous Asset Trafficker is the manager who not only stockpiles assets but also information. These individuals are known as Dynasty Lords.

These Dynasty Lords keep detailed records of every manager, and their strengths at each roster position. But most importantly, these individuals understand what their league mates desire. These league kingpins understand the market and aren’t afraid to make dangerous decisions in their pursuit of complete control. There are rumors that some of these Dynasty Lord’s surveillance is so encompassing, that they can see every trade executed by a manager, regardless if they are in league with them or not. There will be managers with a contender mentality who wish to police these types of individuals and limit their reach of influence. But the Dynasty Lord knows every one of their league mate's weaknesses. They will whisper doubt in the minds of their competitors. And lastly, they will continue to offer the promise of prosperity to their league mates if they continue to align with the Dynasty Lord’s goals. Anyone who doesn’t wish to accept these deals is met with terrible consequences. 

Usage Activity

The usage of a player is one of the most critical pieces of intel that we can use to our advantage. Here are some points of interest worth considering:

Panthers vs. Bears - Since week 7, D’Onta Foreman has been 4th amongst all RBs in rushing attempts (66), yards (286), and rushing TDs (3). However, in weeks 2-5, in which Khalil Herbert received the lion's share of opportunities as the starter, Foreman was a healthy scratch. It remains to be seen what Forman’s opportunities will be once Herbert and Justin Fields return.    
Nothing further to report for the Panthers.

Colts vs. Patriots - Jonathan Taylor has full command of the Colts backfield, receiving 88% of the snaps and 23 carries (both season-highs for Taylor). Meanwhile, Zack Moss only received 1 carry on 16% of the snaps.
Since leading Patriots receiver Kendrick Bourne tore his ACL in Week 8 versus the Dolphins, Demario Douglas has led his team the past 2 weeks with 65 routes (Hunter Henry is 2nd w/ 59 routes), 16 targets (Hunter Henry is 2nd w/ 11 tgts),  139 receiving yards (Hunter Henry and JuJu Smith-Schuster are both for 2nd w/ 60 yds), 2.14 yards per route run (Smith-Schuster is 2nd w/ 1.36 YPRR), and 98 yards after the catch (Smith-Schuster is 2nd w/ 26 YAC).

Texans vs. Bengals - After missing weeks 5 & 10 due to injury, and not registering a single yard in week 1, Tee Higgins has fallen behind Tyler Boyd in targets (50 - Higgins, 59 - Boyd), receptions (Higgins - 27, Boyd - 44), receiving yards (Higgins - 328, Boyd - 417), and YAC (Higgins - 118, Boyd - 186). However, despite these missed opportunities, Higgins has a higher aDOT than Boyd (Higgins - 11.3, Boyd - 7.3), air yards share (Higgins - 35.6%, Boyd - 19.2%), target percentage (Higgins - 19%, Boyd - 16.9%), targets per route run (Higgins - 0.23, Boyd - 0.18), yards per route run (Higgins - 1.54, Boyd -1.30), and is right behind Boyd in PPR Fantasy Points/G (Higgins - 10.3, Boyd - 10.9). All three of the primary Bengals WRs figure to remain strong considerations in all league formats whereas Trenton Irwin, Andrei Iosivas, and Charlie Jones (who is now back from IR) all carry value in deep best-ball formats.
Since returning from injury in week 6, Noah Brown has received 56%, 72%, 72%, and 75% of the snaps in his four latest contests, 24 total targets, 18 total catches, 419 total yards (leads the team over this span - Schultz 2nd w/ 267 yards), and 1 TD. Noah Brown, Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Dalton Schultz are all viable fantasy options in this high-volume & efficient offense. Robert Woods and John Metchie appear to have taken a backseat to their more explosive teammates. 

Saints vs. Vikings - Through 10 games, Alexander Mattison has 130 carries (12th in NFL), 461 rushing yards (23rd in NFL), 3.5 yards per carry (37th amongst RBs with a minimum of 50 carries), and 0 rushing TDs. Mattison’s receiving metrics are slightly better than his rushing production with 36 targets (9th amongst RBs), 24 targets (18th), 164 receiving yards (21st), and 3 receiving TDs (2nd-tied). After Mattison exited with a concussion, Ty Chandler took over the lead back duties and led the team with 15 rushing attempts for 45 rushing yards and 1 TD. In the high likelihood that Mattison is forced to his next game, Chandler will look to greatly benefit as the lead back in his sensational matchup against the league-worst Denver Broncos rush defense.     
Nothing further to report for the Saints.

Falcons vs. Cardinals - Since taking over the starting TE role in week 8 for the injured Zach Ertz, Trey McBride is 2nd amongst all TEs with 28 targets, tied for 2nd with 21 receptions, 3rd with 248 receiving yards, 4th in air yards share with 34.5%, and 5th with 103 YAC.
The petitions to feature Bijan Robinson as the focal point of this subpar Falcons offense were finally heard - Robinson received a career-high 22 carries, which he turned into 95 rushing yards and 1 TD. He has yet to produce the “blow-up” game everyone has been waiting to see from the talented prospect and has only had one complete game (week 2) in which he produced through the ground and the air.  

FM 10-01 Threat Assessment Report and Tactics

Agency Headquarters
Department of Intelligence & Field Operations
November 2023

The purpose of this Field Manual is to provide Field Agents with the necessary guidelines for enhancing the position of their league station. Standard Field Operations Protocol dictates that before any field operation takes place, there must be an assessment of the league’s “Show of Force.” An inventory of your arsenal of assets, the strengths and weaknesses of your major competitors, and trades with potential allies is critical in every championship campaign. The agency’s greatest resources in evaluating a league’s Show of Force are the various WoRP Capabilities. A summary of WoRP can be found in the second publication of this agency, Underdog Drafts - In The Mouth of Madness.  Review the following Field Manual carefully:

Chapter 1. Preliminary Measures - The first step in conducting a threat assessment is gaining security clearance to the intel necessary for this report (https://www.southharmonff.com/worp). The WoRP Worshipper Resources contain both the “WoRP” & “Simulator” tools necessary to conduct this assessment.

Section I. League Simulator - Using the League Simulator tool developed by Dr. Koopa, Director of the Mind Flayer Project, establishes a baseline of the hierarchy of fantasy strength in your league. If you operate in multiple leagues, begin your assessment with your strongest roster amongst your stations using the “Wins” column of the League Simulator. Devoting your initial resources to the strongest rosters is the best use of your time as a contender. Other considerations for which leagues to focus on include the roster(s) most in need of QB help in SF leagues - QB is the highest priority in these league types & nothing else can succeed until your signal-callers are secured.  

Section II. WoRP Calculator - Use the following parameters to operate the WoRP Calculator. If operating in a Best Ball league, use the “True WoRP Table” function. If operating in a Lineup league, use the “Adjusted WoRP Table.” Set the “Roster Efficiency” to “High.” Then run the program using the “Calculate WoRP” function. Once the data has been collected, use the “Download” function located below the list of assets.

Chapter 2. Filtering the Data - Once the data has been downloaded, open the file using a spreadsheet application to view the intel. 

• It is not necessary, but best practices would dictate deleting the “Team” & “Games” columns so that the most pertinent data for this report is easily viewable.

• Copy the remaining “Rank, Name, WoRP, WoRP/G, Position, PosRank” headers and paste the categories three times in the cells adjacent to the original columns of data as pictured below. Each of these four sections of category headers will correspond to a different position (QB, RB, WR, TE). 

• Highlight the original category headers containing the player data, navigate to the “Sort & FIlter” tools, then the “Filter” function. 

• First, using the “WoRP/G” filter, sort “Largest to Smallest.” Second, using the “Position” filter, sort “Z to A.”

• After the data has been sorted, highlight all of the cells associated with each position as pictured below, use the “cut” function, then paste your selected position under one of the vacant category headers you created earlier.

• Once you have completed this task for each position, your spreadsheet should appear like below.

• Once you have completed this task for each position, your spreadsheet should appear like below.

• At this stage, one can now delete the “Position” columns for each of the player positions to further simplify the viewing of the data. 

Chapter 3. Show of Force - After the data has been filtered and cleaned up for use, Field Agents can now begin taking a detailed inventory of their own, their major competitors, and their potential allies’ assets. 

Section I. Self Assessment - Beginning with your own roster, highlight each of your player assets in green as pictured above. 

Section II. Threat Assessment - Using the League Simulator, League Standings, and your own judgment, rank your top three competitors in the league. Beginning with the roster of your largest threat, highlight each of their players in the darkest shade of red. Highlight the players of your secondary and tertiary threats, each with their own shade of red. 

Section III. Potential Allies - An inverse of the Threat Assessment is gauging the players that are potentially available via trade who can improve your arsenal. Highlight in blue the players of managers who are actively tanking or are the most amendable to trading. It is essential to target the players who will either provide positional superiority or valuable depth. Do not waste resources in targeting players who rank below your threshold players (aka: Replacement Players - the players who are at the top of your bench and do not consistently make your lineup).

Section IV. Optimal Roster Construction - In the pursuit of the ideal roster, the “Roster Construction” function will help Field Agents further in identifying trade targets to address deficits in the roster & positions of excess that can be cut or traded away. Highlighted in Yellow above for each position is the number of players rostered followed by the optimal roster construction of that position.

Chapter 4. Conclusion - The Threat Assessment Report is an unbiased and powerful method to measure the strengths and weaknesses of the various players in your league. Use it to identify the best course of action and execute it.

Waiver Targets

Spymaster Vanek will provide the latest intel through his America’s Game report. In terms of FAAB bidding, review your league’s previous waiver behavior to navigate the wire best. The waiver wire will become more bare as the season continues, especially in best ball formats.

• Tanner Hudson - 7.1% rostership, spend up to 0% FAAB (Has been Burrow’s preferred TE target the last 2 weeks)

• A.T. Perry - 49.7% rostership, 0% FAAB (upside rookie profile, could see more snaps if Michael Thomas misses time w/ injury)

Week 9 Dossier

Nothing Left To Chance

Privileged Info

You’re walking the winding brick path by the river, needing to clear your head of the chaos back at the agency. As you stare out at the yellow glow of the street lamps reflecting off the pitch-black water, your phone vibrates. “Can you meet? Harbor Hotel. Rm 507. 30 minutes.” There is never a time for rest at this point in the season. You quickly dart through the side streets and alleys to make sure you aren’t being tailed - can’t afford to blow the cover of your best informant. You take one last look down the hall before you knock on the door, ‘507’ displayed in bold brass. “It’s me,” you mumble. The door swings open and you walk over to the table covered with glossy photos and stapled documents. “The league has certainly been busy with all of these recent trades. A lot of panic with injuries. But that’s not why you interrupted my late-night stroll, is it?” The informant smiles and shakes his head. Opening up his jacket, the informant pulls out a pen and begins to unscrew the barrel. Tucked inside, the informant pulls out a tiny scroll of paper and hands it to you. You read the four names quickly before you pocket the paper. “This can be pretty massive, are you sure about this?” The informant replies “It’s reliable. Those assets can turn the tide.” You twist the doorknob to leave and say “I’ll stay in touch.”

Usage Activity

A player’s usage can have massive implications for how we attack the season. Here are some points of interest worth monitoring:

Titans vs. Steelers - Since week 5, both DeAndre Hopkins and Diontae Johnson rank inside the top 12 in fantasy points per game at 17.6 and 17.1 respectively. Over that same span, Hopkins has been 3rd in average depth of target (16.5), Diontae is 7th in target share (29.6%), tied for 11th in targets per route run (0.30), 9th in 1st-read percentage (36.9%), and both rank in the top 10 in air yards share (Hopkins - 45.8%, Johnson - 44.2%). However, Brett Kollmann’s recent breakdown of the Steeler’s offense will give pause to anyone considering a piece of it.

Vikings vs. Falcons - Fear of the fallout from Kirk Cousin’s injury quickly subsided following Joshua Dobbs’ thrilling debut as the Vikings’ QB. Like a player with no country, the mercenary signal-caller quickly got to work, going 20/30 for 158 yards passing, and 2 TDs, with an additional 7 carries for 66 yards on the ground and 1 rushing TD. T.J. Hockenson stands to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of Dobb’s arrival: Hockenson led his team in targets (12), receptions (7), and yards (69) in week 9. In weeks 6-9, Minnesota has been 2nd in the league in TE Fantasy Usage (16.1 expected fantasy points - stat courtesy Hayden Winks, Underdog).
The fantasy atrocities continue in Atlanta, in particular with Bijan Robinson, who on average is receiving 11.13 carries & 5.13 targets a game (not including week 7’s one-touch game). Robinson has 13 Red Zone touches so far this season (32nd amongst RBs).

Seahawks vs. Ravens - Gus Edwards has scored 6 TDs over the past 3 games, the most of any RB over that span. His 7 total TDs are behind only Raheem Mostert (11) and Christian McCaffrey (9). Though he did score twice in week 9, Gus only received 5 carries and 18% of the snaps in this matchup. That was due in large part to Keaton Mitchell’s impressive performance: 9 carries for 138 rushing yards and 1 TD on 18% of the snaps. Mitchell is now only behind De’Von Achane with a 93.0 PFF Run Grade. For reasons unknown, Justice Hill led the backfield in snap percentage (63%) and carries (13) versus the Seahawks.
Too many high-value picks were sacrificed needlessly over the off-season to acquire the services of Geno Smith, who now barely qualifies as  QB 2 in fantasy. Jaxon Smith-Njigba continues to make strides - 6/7 for 63 yards on an 82% snap share (the highest snap% so far this season). Given Geno’s disappointing season and competition for touches with D.K. Metcalf & Tyler Lockett, Smith-Njigba remains a prime “sell” piece on any contender.

Rams vs. Packers - In his likely most healthy game since week 1, Aaron Jones dominated the backfield with 20 carries for 73 rushing yards and 1 TD, with an additional 4/6 for 26 yards through the air on 57% of the snaps (the highest % all season). Aaron Jones remains one of the highest-upside RB 2s for the rest of the season if he receives this type of usage moving forward. 
With Carson Wentz now entering the playing arena for the Rams, there is hope contenders will not need to liquidate their Cooper Kupp or Puka Nacua shares to secure a title. 
     
Buccaneers vs. Texans - C.J. Stroud’s 30/42 for 470 yards and 5 TDs is the greatest rookie QB performance this agency has ever witnessed. Stroud is already being ranked as the QB 7 on KTC and the QB 9 on FantasyCalc. Without an elite pass-catcher or run game to take the pressure off the young signal-caller, there is no QB in the league playing better with the cards dealt to him. Dalton Schultz and Tank Dell were the primary targets of Stroud: Schults - 10/11, 130 yards, 1 TD. Dell - 6/11, 114 yards, 2 TDs. Schultz is currently 2nd amongst TEs in Fantasy Points/G (16.5), 3rd in target share (24.2%), tied for 1st in Targets Per Route Run (0.32), 3rd in Yards Per Route Run (2.72), and tied for 3rd with 10 red zone targets.
Rachaad White and Cade Otton also enjoyed career-best days in this matchup: White - 20 attempts for 73 rushing yards plus 2 TDs, with 4/4 for 46 receiving yards on 80% snap share (good enough for RB1 of the week), Otton - 6/9 for 70 receiving yards plus 2 TDs on 100% of the snaps (TE3 of the week).

Agency Bulletin

The following assets of interest are in various considerations for your Rest-Of-Season Mission. Elite assets will not be included in this report given their formidable prices. The data used does not include week 9 and the WoRP values are based upon 12 teams, start 11, 30-player rosters, 6 pts per Passing TD, and Lineup leagues. Do not engage in a trade until the following intel & parameters have been carefully reviewed:

The South Harmon Agency - Security Clearance will dictate access to this agency’s intel, but South Harmon operations are conducted on a daily basis with the objective of disrupting the fantasy space. Enroll in their academy as a recruit on Discord to gain access to their resources and train to become a top-tier fantasy operator. https://www.patreon.com/SouthHarmon
 
WoRP - Scoring settings & team needs will dictate which assets to pursue. WoRP is a valuable resource in not only establishing priority targets but also secondary and backup options if necessary. This resource can only be accessed through: https://www.southharmonff.com/worp

Managers to Target - Begin negotiations with managers who are on the opposite side of the standings. If your roster is rebuilding, prioritize trading with teams in the middle who are desperate to contend & whose picks have higher upside. Managers at the bottom of the standings will become more eager to trade away their players to acquire picks as the season progresses. If your roster is in the middle, negotiate with other middling teams - if you are unable to acquire players to contend, then adapt & pursue the other direction with acquiring picks.

Scouting Weeks 12-17 - Prioritize the players with the best matchups during the most critical stage of the season.  

FantasyCalc/KeepTradeCut - Where an asset ranks in the field ultimately determines its value. Dynasty Rankings and The Trade Database (which lists the most recent acquisitions of the asset of interest) are invaluable resources in leveraging suitable deals.

The Weekly Dossier -  This classified document carefully lays out weekly reports and directives based on intelligence compiled from the most advanced agencies in the field (NFL, NextGenStats, ESPN, PFF, FantasyPros, FantasyLife, PlayerProfiler, Underdog).

QB

Tua Tagovailoa - Field Commander Tua Tagovailoa ranks in the top 5 in 9 out of the 15 major categories our agency uses to evaluate QBs (the next closest QB is Josh Allen with 8/15 categories). This includes the best in the league at adjusted yards per attempt (9.3), big-time throw percentage (7.1%), PFF Grade (90.2), Supporting Cast (77.25), and QBR (108.8). The 5th best WoRP QB this season, Tua is playing well above his 8th most valuable dynasty QB ranking on FantasyCalc and 9th place ranking on KeepTradeCut. But perhaps the most intriguing aspect of Tua is pairing his services with the best player in all of fantasy this year to create the most lethal combination, Tyreek Hill (& De’Von Achane). Miami has a difficult rest-of-season schedule, but our analysts anticipate several shoot-outs to take place over the fantasy playoffs. Coming off one of his worst performances of the season and heading into a bye-week, sending 2x 1st-round + 2x 2nd-round picks worth of value and up to 3x 1st-round picks is merited in acquiring the young QB’s elite talent.

Jared Goff - Represents the most ideal QB 2 in SF leagues. Goff is tied for the 3rd highest pass attempts in the league (36.57/G) and has the 2nd highest adjusted completion percentage (80.4%). His volume of passes makes his 1.8% turnover-worthy plays that much more impressive with how little he puts the ball in harm's way (2nd best in the NFL). The Lions have surrounded Goff with one of the best ensembles of talent in the league (2nd only to Miami), including arguably the best positional trio in the league - St. Brown, LaPorta, and Gibbs. Detroit’s rest-of-season schedule is one of the best for any QB in fantasy (Starting in wk-12: GB, @NO, @CHI, DEN, @MIN, @DAL). The 8th best WoRP QB this season, Goff is outperforming his 16th most valuable dynasty QB ranking on FantasyCalc and 15th place ranking on KeepTradeCut. Coming off of his bye-week, be confident in sending up to a 1st-round + 2nd-round pick for the stability & upside of Jared Goff. 

Russell Wilson - A Public Enemy the past two seasons, Russell Wilson has far outperformed his dynasty perception. His 79% adjusted completion percentage and 101.7 QBR are amongst the best scores in the league. The Broncos' rest-of-season schedule is one of the more favorable through the fantasy playoffs (starting in wk-13: @HOU, @LAC, @DET, NE, LAC).  The 10th best WoRP QB this season, Wilson is playing beyond his 21st most valuable dynasty QB ranking on FantasyCalc and 25th place ranking on KeepTradeCut. Coming off of his bye-week, be confident in sending up to a 1st-round round pick and riding with Russell Wilson as your QB 2.

Baker Mayfield - Unremarkable in nearly every major category, Baker Mayfield flies under the radar as the perfect QB 3 with a sneaky upside. At 35.14 pass attempts/G (11th in NFL) and 0.55 neutral pass rate (7th), Mayfield receives plenty of opportunities to operate within the 5th-best offensive ensemble in the league. The Mayfield and Mike Evans stack is perhaps the best value stack in fantasy this year. The Buccaneers' rest-of-season schedule is far from intimidating (@IND, CAR, @ATL, @GB, JAX, NO). As the 18th-best WoRP QB and not costing more than an early 2nd, Mayfield is the perfect tier-down candidate and insurance policy heading into the playoffs considering his QB23 price on KTC and QB27 ranking on FantasyCalc.

Waiver Targets

Spymaster Vanek will provide the latest intel through his America’s Game report. In terms of FAAB bidding, review your league’s previous waiver behavior to navigate the wire best. The waiver wire will become more bare as the season continues, especially in best ball formats.

• Carson Wentz - 12% rostership, up to 10% FAAB (could fill in on dynamic, McVay-led offense)

• Noah Brown - 35% rostership, 3-5% FAAB (better for best ball)

• Kyle Philips - 24% rostership, spend up to 1% FAAB (will compete as the 2nd receiving option behind Hopkins week-to-week)

• Khadarel Hodge - 4% rostership, 1% FAAB (a decent BB option with London & Hollins banged up)

• Ty Chandler - 38% rostership, 0-1% FAAB (now the primary backup with Akers done)

Week 8 Dossier

At The Edge Of The Unknown

Assignment

In our line of work, missions are not accomplished through luck. Though there are a multitude of variables that cannot be accounted for and circumstances that are impossible to foresee, victory comes to those who have prepared for it. Part of this planning includes an honest assessment of your chances. “What is your team’s record, where is your team in the standings, and how does it stack up with other teams in terms of points scored?” are all necessary in order to establish a baseline. But beyond these preliminary questions is an inventory of your arsenal: “Do you have a strong QB duo and a serviceable backup in your superflex league?” “Can your WR corp keep up with the best in your league?” “Do your RBs have any consistency or upside?” “Is your TE serviceable?” “How many injuries can you sustain to each position before you are out of the race?” And lastly “Do you have assets that can be liquidated to help strengthen your position?” At this Agency, we train our agents to work toward outcomes that can be all but assured. This involves not only overwhelming your competition with your resources but perhaps the most important factor is timing. 

Injuries are a critical aspect of timing because depending on the position, your urgency to act on the injury should be directly correlated to how finite the position is and if your competition has better means of acquiring the asset before you do. So for example, if there is a critical injury to a manager’s QB room, and there is only one difference-making QB available for trade from a rebuilding team, that rebuilder’s QB has become a high-priority asset. But if the cost of that high-priority QB is too prohibitive because no contender has the means to acquire the asset, then it becomes a lower-priority target. Consider these scenarios if there is any room for your competition to gain a significant advantage over you. If your arsenal is lacking and there are little to no opportunities for improvement, then it is important to consider pivoting toward rebuilding. In Dynasty, there is always the option to retreat and gather resources until the circumstances are favorable - do not blow your cover or get burned by chasing something that was never there.

Usage Activity

A player’s usage can prove valuable in determining our season-long plans and moves. Here are some points of interest worth considering:

Buccaneers vs. Bills - Despite their relatively solid usage and snap counts, Chris Godwin and Rachaad White each only have 1 TD so far this season, and can not be trusted as anything more than floor FLEX options on one of the worst Red Zone teams in the league (31st). 
The 65% snap share that Khalil Shakir received in week 8 is the highest snap count any slot WR has received for the Bills this season. Shakir turned this opportunity into 6 catches for 92 receiving yards. It remains to be seen if Shakir can cement this usage into future opportunities. 

Texans vs. Panthers - Chuba Hubbard has dominated the Panthers backfield over the last two contests - Wk 6: 19 carries on a 77% snap share, (Wk 7: bye week), Wk 8: 15 carries on a 67% snap share. Miles Sanders - Wk 6: 7 carries on a 46% snap share, Wk 8: 2 carries on a 18% snap share. Though Miles Sanders is battling through a shoulder injury, he may not be able to regain the lead back position from Hubbard once healthier. But perhaps the more important question is “Does it matter?” Chuba may be worth considering, but at cost, the best value and the only Panther worth rostering for contenders remains Adam Thielen.
Returning from injury after their bye week, Tank Dell led all Texans WRs in snap share with 78%. Unfortunately, C.J. Stroud struggled in this contest with only 140 yards total passing.

Rams vs. Cowboys - Through Tony Pollard’s first 7 games in 2022, he amassed 375 yards on 67 carries (2 TDs) and 105 yards receiving on 11 catches from 18 targets. In 2023, Pollard has 423 yards rushing on 108 carries (2 TDs) and 178 yards receiving on 26 catches from 30 targets through 7 contests. Even though Pollard isn’t producing at the same efficiency as he was last year with Ezekiel Elliot out of the picture, he is luckily still receiving usage that will hopefully bear fruit soon.
The severity of Matthew Stafford’s injury will have widespread implications on a number of key players for this Rams’ offense. Hold your position on these players until more information can be gathered.

Vikings vs. Packers - Unlike the Rams situation, the implication for Vikings players is drastically clear: turn and burn em. Minnesota will explore the options available on the quarterback market, but unless the legendary Case Keenum can be wrestled away from the Houston Texans’ bench, we do not foresee another Minneapolis Miracle saving the Vikings’ season.
The Packers' offense is far from ideal, ranking in the bottom half of the league in most statistical categories. Their ensemble is chock-full of talented skill players, and yet it is difficult to start any of them in a lineup league. Until the run game improves and the receivers become acclimated with the offense, there will be too much on Jordan Love’s shoulders to handle.

Patriots vs. Dolphins - There wasn’t a wider discrepancy of offensive talent in week 8 than what was on display during this matchup. As pathetic as it may sound, Kendrick Bourne was the Patriot’s most consistent player on offense that was producing throughout the season, and now he is lost. Hoping Demario Douglas will step up to fill Bourne’s void is a lot to ask of the rookie. 
Buy De’Von Achane now while he is injured and can be acquired for a single 1st-round pick.

Chiefs vs. Broncos -  In the seven years Patrick Mahomes has been in the NFL and the six years he has held the office of Chiefs’ starting quarterback, he has never played as poorly as he did Sunday versus the Broncos - 24/38 for 241 yards, 2 INTs, & 1 Fumble Lost. We are working behind the scenes in sending Kansas City profiles on every WR not currently playing for the Chiefs (including active duty, retired, XFL, Canadian, alive, etc.) in hopes they will bolster their receiver group ahead of the trade deadline.
Russell Wilson managed to throw 3 TDs on only 12 passes against the Chiefs. Javonte Williams’ 27 carries for 85 yards rushing and 13 receiving yards plus 1 TD (63% snap share) was his best fantasy performance since week 14 in 2021 versus the Lions.

QB Bona Fides

The Quarterback position remains the agency’s highest priority target in SF. Make no mistake, the war will be won or lost depending on this position in the coming weeks. The following QB credentials (weeks 1-7 data) have been heavily vetted by our intelligence officers and are currently in the hands of our top strategists. The agency will release a QB Bulletin a week from today based on these bona fides. Until then, cultivate trade talks with managers and position yourselves to execute once given the green light. This data sample does not include the Tennessee QBs (hurt/bad/small sample), the Arizona QBs (waiting for Kyler Murray), Zach Wilson (bad), or Kirk Cousins (hurt).

Attempts/G - Ideal stat to consider for leagues that award volume. Joe Burrow is #1 in this category at (38.67 att/g). Patrick Mahomes is #2 (38 att/g). Jared Goff, Sam Howell, and Matthew Stafford are all tied for #3 (36.57 att/g)  

Neutral Pass Rate - Target the QBs on teams that pass on 1st & 2nd downs at the highest rate. The Bengals and the Chiefs are tied for the highest neutral pass rate in the league (0.6). The Eagles have the 3rd highest rate (0.59) and the Dolphins have the 4th highest (0.57). 

Adjusted Completion % - Accounting for passes thrown on target and drops, accuracy remains one of the best metrics in measuring a QB’s quality, especially in leagues that award completions. Geno Smith remains one of the most accurate QBs in the league (81.9%), followed by Jared Goff (80.4%), Tua Tagovailoa (79.8%), Josh Allen (79.5%), Lamar Jackson (79.3%), and Russell Wilson (79%).

Adjusted Yards Per Attempt (AY/A) - A statistic that not only accounts for the average yards of a pass but weighs passing touchdowns (passing yds + 20) and interceptions (passing yds - 45) as well. Tua has the best AY/A in the NFL (9.3), followed by Brock Purdy (9.1), C.J. Stroud (8.4), and Lamar Jackson (8.2). 

Average Depth of Target - Who is attempting the biggest plays downfield in the league? Jordan Love has the top ADOT in our sample (9.8 yds), followed by Deshaun Watson (9.5 yds). Justin Herbert and Derek Carr are tied for the 3rd best ADOT (9.2 yds).   

Big Time Throws % - “A pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window” (PFF). Tua has been the top operator in terms of money throws (7.1%), followed by Matthew Stafford (7%), Jalen Hurts (6.7%), and Lamar Jackson (6.5%). 

Turnover Worthy Plays % - “A pass that has a high percentage chance to be intercepted or a poor job of taking care of the ball and fumbling” (PFF) - particularly important for leagues that heavily penalize turnovers. Joe Burrow has been the most secure QB so far this season in terms of turnovers (1.5%), followed by Jared Goff (1.8%), Matthew Stafford (2%), Josh Allen (2.1%), and Dak Prescott (2.2%). Gardner Minshew has been the riskiest QB in the NFL in terms of protecting the ball (7.9%).

PFF Pass Grade - No surprise that Tua has received the highest marks amongst his peers (90.2). Josh Allen (87.7), Lamar Jackson (85.3), Jared Goff (83), and Patrick Mahomes (82.2) have all performed admirably while on assignment as well.     

Supporting Cast - The average score of the QB’s pass-blocking and receiving units combined. The Miami Special Forces Unit remains the best ensemble of top-tier operators in the league (77.25). The Lions have the second-best unit surrounding Goff (76.1), the Bills have the third-best unit around Allen (75.2), and the Eagles have the fourth-best unit supporting Hurts (73.8).

WoRP/G - The final credential is WoRP per game based upon a 12-team, start 11, 30-man roster, 6 pts per pass TD, Lineup SF league. Patrick Mahomes remains the biggest difference-making QB in SF leagues (0.172 WoRP/G). Josh Allen (0.167), Justin Herbert (0.162), Jalen Hurts (0.161), and Tua Tagovailoa (0.15) round out the top 5 for WoRP QBs.

Waiver Targets

Spymaster Vanek will provide the latest intel through his America’s Game report. In terms of FAAB bidding, review your league’s previous waiver behavior to navigate the wire best. The waiver wire will become more bare as the season continues, especially in best ball formats.

• Taylor Heinicke - 30% rostership, spend up to 15% FAAB (It is likely that Commander Arthur Smith will not make the switch at QB until it is too late for the Falcons, but he will make the switch eventually)

• Clayton Tune - 31% rostership, 1% FAAB (Don’t spend valuable FAAB on a 1-week fill-in who will get destroyed by Cleveland & then go back to the bench when Kyler takes over)

• Trubisky - 19% rostership, 1% FAAB (even if Pickett misses multiple games, Mitch will have to face Tennessee, Green Bay, & Cleveland - brutal matchups) 

Week 7 Dossier

Cloak & Dagger

Assignment

Operating as a field agent demands a calculated focus. This will often require a cold and detached inclination that is ready to make difficult decisions and necessary sacrifices for the good of your team. With half of the regular season complete, there are assets that are still retaining trade interest because of their dynasty value or volatile production, but overall they are jeopardizing your mission success with their lack of consistent/up-side production. Prove your resolve and make the difficult decisions before your operation is compromised.

Usage Activity

Please examine carefully the following usage activity reports we have gathered on players from week 7:

Jaguars vs. Saints - Travis Etienne has been elevated to a high-priority asset to acquire following his performance against the Saints - 14 carries for 53 yards, 2 TDs & 3/5 for 24 yards receiving on an 88% snap share. Etienne is 5th amongst RBs in fantasy points/game (19.7 PPR), 1st in snap share (80%), 2nd in routes run (178), and 3rd in total TDs (7). He is 6th at RB in WoRP/G in Lineup (0.154) & Best Ball leagues (0.135) (12 teams, start 10, 25-man rosters, PPR). Christian Kirk is another player who has slowly sparked the trade interest of the Agency after his 6/6 for 90 receiving yards & 1 TD performance on an 80% snap share in New Orleans. As a player who has lined up in the slot at 71.4% of his snaps, Kirk is often going up against less formidable nickel corners and capitalizing.
Since returning in week 4, Alvin Kamara has been 7th in the league in rushing yards (193) on 51 carries  & has led all RBs in targets (31), receptions (28), and receiving yards (141). Despite being less efficient than years past and the offense being wrought with issues, the usage Kamara has received is hard to ignore - 17 carries for 62 yards rushing, 12/15 for 91 yards receiving on 73% of the snaps.

Browns vs. Colts - Jerome Ford rushed for 74 yards on 11 attempts and scored a TD. This would appear to be a solid outing for the RB if it wasn’t for the fact that 69 of his 74 carries came on one play on the first drive of the game. Ford is a fine FLEX option, but given the scarcity of the RB market, he operates more as an RB2. He will be missed as he recovers from injury, giving Kareem Hunt an opportunity to serve as the lead back. Hunt may only be 75% of the running back that Ford is, but considering how imposing the Cleveland defense is, Hunt may not need to be much more in order to be productive.
Much has been said of Gardner Minshew being the preferred passing option for Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs for fantasy purposes compared to Anthony Richardson. If we focus on weeks 1 & 4 for Richardson, in which he played 100% of the snaps at QB, and weeks 3, 6, & 7 for Minshew: Pittman averages 6.5 targets, 4.5 receptions, 56 yards, 0.5 TDs with Richardson & 10 targets, 6.67 receptions, 89.67 yards, 0.33 TDs with Minshew. Downs averages 4 targets, 2.5 receptions, 32 yards, and 0 TDs with Richardson & 8.33 targets, 6 receptions, 67.67 yards, and 0.67 TDs with Minshew. It would appear that these claims are far from unfounded considering both Indianapolis receivers have been top 20 in targets, receptions, and yards in the weeks Gardner has started, and overall carry covert value.

Commanders vs. Giants - It is quite curious to see Chris Rodriguez receive only 1 less carry than lead back Brian Robinson and many of the attempts were on 1st and 2nd down throughout the game, but expectations must be tempered considering Rodriguez only saw 13% of the snaps.
When healthy, Darren Waller is one of the best TEs in the league - 242 routes run (4th), 48 targets (4th), 35 catches (4th), 379 receiving yards (2nd), 393 air yards (3rd), 11.3 PPR pts/g (5th). Waller is by far the best and only receiving option worth rostering from the Giants.

Cardinals vs. Seahawks - Seattle showcased their pair of rookie WRs Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Jake Bobo in their win over Arizona: JSN - 4/7, 63 yards, 1 TD, 63% snaps / Bobo - 4/5, 61 yards, 1 TD, 75% snaps. If only Geno Smith was performing at the same level he was last year - 2022, wks 1-7: 1,712 yards passing, 11 TDs, 3 Ints / 2023, wks 1-7: 1,391 yards passing, 7 TDs, 4 Ints.
Trade for Marquise Brown or Michael Wilson before Kyler Murray returns.

Chargers vs. Chiefs - How does Travis Kelce’s start to the 2023 season compare to weeks 1-7 of the previous 3 seasons? 2020: 40/54, 501 yds, 5 TDs - 2021: 45/64, 533 yds, 4 TDs - 2022: 47/59, 553 yds, 7 TDs - 2023: 48/59, 525 yds, 4 TDs. Considering that Kelce has played 1 less contest in 2023 compared to the other seasons, he is having as good a season so far as he ever has in his career.
In weeks 4, 6, & 7, following Mike Williams's season-ending injury, Joshua Palmer is 12/22 for 270 yards compared to Keenan Allen’s 14/23 for 172 yards & 2 TDs. Joshua Palmer in seasons past may have been the most overrated WR, but he is currently producing as a FLEX WR and is under no threat from Quentin Johnston, who is MIA and presumed a lost cause. 

Agency Bulletin

The following assets of interest are in various considerations for your Rest-Of-Season Mission. Elite assets will not be included in this report given their formidable prices. The WoRP values are based upon 12 team leagues, start 10, 25-player rosters, PPR, Lineup, and Best Ball. Following the TE Interests intel from the Week 6 Dossier, we will focus on the TE position for this week’s bulletin. Do not engage in a trade until the following intel & parameters have been carefully reviewed:

The South Harmon Agency - Security Clearance will dictate access to this agency’s intel, but South Harmon operations are conducted on a daily basis with the objective of disrupting the fantasy space. Enroll in their academy as a recruit on Discord to gain access to their resources and train to become a top-tier fantasy operator. https://www.patreon.com/SouthHarmon
 
WoRP - Scoring settings & team needs will dictate which assets to pursue. WoRP is a valuable resource in not only establishing priority targets but also secondary and backup options if necessary. This resource can only be accessed through: https://www.southharmonff.com/worp

Managers to Target - Begin negotiations with managers who are on the opposite side of the standings. If your roster is rebuilding, prioritize trading with teams in the middle who are desperate to contend & whose picks have higher upside. Managers at the bottom of the standings will become more eager to trade away their players to acquire picks as the season progresses. If your roster is in the middle, negotiate with other middling teams - if you are unable to acquire players to contend, then adapt & pursue the other direction with acquiring picks.

Scouting Weeks 12-17 - Prioritize the players with the best matchups during the most critical stage of the season.  

FantasyCalc/KeepTradeCut - Where an asset ranks in the field ultimately determines its value. Dynasty Rankings and The Trade Database (which lists the most recent acquisitions of the asset of interest) are invaluable resources in leveraging suitable deals.

The Weekly Dossier -  This classified document carefully lays out weekly reports and directives based on intelligence compiled from the most advanced agencies in the field (NFL, NextGenStats, ESPN, PFF, FantasyPros, FantasyLife, PlayerProfiler, Underdog).

TE

Evan Engram is our highest priority TE to acquire. He is 2nd amongst TEs in targets & receptions, 3rd in routes run, and leads the league with 233 yards after the catch. He is 7th at the position in WoRP/G in Lineup leagues (0.068) and 9th in Best Ball formats (0.041). Evan Engram has been one of the most consistent TEs in the league, having only one week outside the top 10 this season in terms of fantasy production (wk 5 vs. Buf). Ranked as the TE10 on KTC & the TE14 on FantasyCalc, Engram can typically be acquired for less than a 1st-round pick. 

Dalton Schultz is the 8th TE in WoRP/G in Lineup (0.061) & 5th in Best Ball (0.053). Has 7 red zone targets in 6 games this season. The rapport between Schultz and C.J. Stroud has been strong in their last three contests. Ranked as the TE 16 on KTC & the TE13 on FantasyCalc, Schultz can be had for a 2nd-round pick.

Jonnu Smith is the 5th TE in WoRP/G in Lineup (0.078) & 11th in Best Ball (0.038). He is 3rd amongst TEs in yards per route run (1.87) and plays for a Falcons team that utilizes the TE position more than any other in the league. Ranked as the TE24 on KTC & the TE20 on FantasyCalc, Jonnu can be acquired for less than a 2nd-round pick.

Waiver Targets

Spymaster Vanek will provide the latest intel through his America’s Game report. In terms of FAAB bidding, review your league’s previous waiver behavior to navigate the wire best. The waiver wire will become more bare as the season continues, especially in best ball formats.

• Jake Bobo - 28% rostership, spend up to 5% FAAB (ideal for Best Ball rosters)

• Chris Rodriguez - 46% rostership, 3% FAAB (likely to fill Brian Robinson’s role if he were to ever get injured)

• Royce Freeman - 46% rostership, 0% FAAB (close to splitting snaps and touches with Darrell Henderson) 

Week 6 Dossier

Take a Chance

Assignment

The reports of those who have been wounded in the line of duty continue to mount every week. Soon, it will become apparent that the most capable agents are those with the depth and the draft capital to survive the unforgiving season. But perhaps the highest level of skill is found in operators who know when to risk acquiring an asset before the competition does. This can often be achieved by flipping an underperforming asset that carries dynasty value for an older, highly productive veteran. There will be many champions crowned at the end of this year who did not hesitate in forgoing youth and were willing to pay a little more than the competition for these league-winning assets. Read the following (and previous) dossier carefully for the full report on these trade targets.

Field Surveillance

There are teams that continue to separate themselves in their offensive prowess as the season develops. Each of these teams is commanded by a field general capable of distributing the ball to multiple targets downfield, even in the face of heavy opposition. These teams are the Miami Dolphins, Detroit Lions, and Los Angeles Rams. These offenses are additionally grounded by a highly effective ground assault, but the Los Angeles Rams may have to take the skies with uncertainty surrounding Kyren Williams’ injury. Their competent defenses will keep them in the fight against their opponents, giving their strategists the choice to attack through the ground or the air, as well as ample opportunities to score off of turnovers. Acquiring assets on well-rounded teams is advantageous for mission success and these three teams have looked the part so far. Teams such as the 49ers, Bills, and Eagles each appear to be saving their strength for when it matters most, which is why it will be crucial to acquire assets from these squads as well (losing to lesser opponents can often serve as catalysts for Super Bowl caliber teams the rest of the way). The Ravens, Seahawks, Jaguars, Cowboys, and Bengals all have the talent to go far, but for unknown circumstances, their offenses still haven’t ascended to safe altitudes.

Usage Activity

The following reports are the latest from our field agents regarding week 6 action. Here are some points of interest worth considering:

Giants vs. Bills - James Cook (14 carries for 71 yds) and Latavius Murray (12 carries for 45 yds) both saw 49% of the snaps on offense; this is the 2nd time this season Cook has received less than 50% of the snaps (the other instance was against Miami). It will be difficult to trust Cook as anything more than a FLEX for the remainder of the season. Stefon Diggs is 4th in FPTS/G (23.2), 2nd in TDs (5), 3rd in receptions (49), 3rd in Yds (620), 4th in targets per route run (30%), and 4th in air yards (721). His final slate of opponents from week 12-17 include the Eagles, bye, Chiefs, Dallas, Chargers, and Patriots - all opponents he could terminate with extreme prejudice.
Saquon Barkley is the lone sliver of hope in the Wasteland of the Meadowlands; he had 24 carries for 93 yards rushing (4/5 for 5 yds receiving) on 78% of the snaps. If you find yourself trapped and in desperate need of points, look for other routes of escape before you turn to Darren Waller or Wan’Dale Robinson. 

Eagles vs. Jets - What is the difference between A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith in 2023? PPG (PPR): A.J. (20.2), DeVonta (12.2) - Target Share: A.J. (30%), DeVonta (23%) - Air Yards %: A.J. (46%), DeVont (33%) - YAC: A.J. (269 yds), DeVonta (70 yds) - Yds/RouteRun: A.J. (2.93), DeVonta (1.37) - Tgts/RouteRun: A.J. (25%), DeVonta (18%) - ADOT: A.J. (14.12), DeVonta (13.43 yds). It is a Flawless Victory for Brown over Smith so far this season. Defecting half of your DeVonta shares in favor of A.J. would be highly advantageous on any contending team. But exercise caution: if Brown were to miss time, DeVonta would dominate as the #1. D’Andre Swift had 10 carries and 10 targets versus the Jets for 58 total yards and a TD; he is now 11th in carries and 5th in targets amongst RBs.
The New York Jets Squadron have had their dream shot and have gone up against some of the best teams in the NFL. Their defensive capabilities kept things close in their dogfight versus the Eagles, making it possible for Breece Hall to remain involved throughout their contest; his snap-share continues to increase week by week (66% vs Eagles). The Met Life Air Wing is home base to two squadrons with elite RBs and nothing else to offer in terms of offensive firepower.  
  
Cardinals vs. Rams - Since returning to active duty in week 5, Cooper Kupp has been 4th amongst WRs in all of the following categories: targets (22), receptions (15), receiving yards (266), YAC (104), and yards/route run (3.86). Kupp has accomplished this on 97.2% of the snaps and appears to have maintained a strong rapport with his QB, Matthew Stafford. As encouraging as Kupp’s return to form has been, there are other candidates our agency would prefer to pursue given Kupp’s probability of re-injury and age.
Marquise Brown was well on his way to being a top-12 WR last year before injuries to both him and Kyler Murray derailed their season. In 2023, Hollywood is reminding us of his ability as a top-20 WR, and could be one of the best buys at this point of the season considering his value increase if Kyler were to return before the fantasy playoffs.

Panthers vs. Dolphins - It was quite admirable watching the Panthers launch a surprise attack on the Miami Special Forces and go up 14 points in the 1st quarter. It didn’t take long for Miami to execute a counterattack with three consecutive touchdowns and all but neutralize Carolina by halftime. One of the biggest surprises of 2023 is top 3 fantasy WR, Adam Thielen, who over the past month has risen 124 spots in dynasty rankings on Keep Trade Cut, including 43 spots at his position from WR 100 to WR 57. Gone is the opportunity to acquire Thielen for 2x 3rd-round picks, but he is still a value buy considering his WR 57 price. Our intel officers recommend either trading a 3rd-round pick plus another asset (preferably younger in order to attract ageist managers) or an underperforming player that ranks ahead of Thielen (such as Treylon Burks, Elijah Moore, or Jahan Dotson).
The only boomer asset overshadowing Thielen’s production in 2023 has been Raheem Mostert, the 2nd best RB in fantasy. Various RB metrics outside of PPG may not indicate Raheem to be an elite RB, but his speed, goal-line usage (leads RBs in total TDs - 11), and overall role as the lead back on an elite offense have all vaulted him into being an attractive fantasy asset. Managers holding Raheem will surely require a 1st-round pick, but we recommend appealing to potential Mostert sellers with a 2nd-round pick plus an additional asset or circling back to these managers later on in the season. 

Colts vs. Jaguars - Travis Etienne was not given much of a chance heading into the 2023 season - he had missed his entire rookie campaign due to injury, had an up-and-down year in 2022, and many believed that Tank Bigsby was a shoo-in to supplant Travis as the lead back some point this season. Etienne has quieted many of his doubters over the last two weeks as the RB1 and RB2 and has used his league-high 113 carries to elevate himself as the 3rd best runner so far this season. The only RB with a firmer stranglehold of snaps compared to Travis’ 79% (tied with Josh Jacobs)  is the recently injured Kyren Williams’ 83%.
The Colts fell behind quickly in this matchup after a slew of turnovers and punts, causing them to neglect their running led by Jonathan Taylor (8 carries) and Zach Moss (7 carries). Michael Pittman’s 9/14 for 109 yards was the receiving performance of consequence.   

TE Interests

The Tight End position is unlike any other asset operating in the field given the extreme difficulty in identifying the top prospects outside of the elite. It is for this reason that this agency has based much of our TE Camp on the same rigorous standards of our WR selection process.

PPG (PPR) - Several points per game separate Travis Kelce as the top agent (17.7 pts) and Mark Andrews (14.3 pts). Sam LaPorta (13.3 pts), T.J. Hockenson (12.7 pts), and Cole Kmet round out the top 5 as the best fantasy producers so far this season.

Targets Per Route Run - One of the largest gaps across our testing metrics was Kelce’s 32% TPRR, which is 7% higher than LaPorta’s and Jake Ferguson’s* 25% (*doesn’t include wk 6 data). Zach Ertz and Vikings teammates Hockenson and Josh Oliver each have a 23% TPRR. 

Yards Per Route Run - Travis leads this category as well with 2.4 yards/route run, followed by Noah Fant (2.17 Y/RR), Trey McBride (1.99 Y/RR), LaPorta (1.93 Y/RR), and Jonnu Smith (1.92 Y/RR).

Yards Per Team Pass Attempt - Finally, a category that Travis Kelce isn’t perfect at. Mark Andrews is the best TE in this category (1.95 yds), followed by LaPorta (1.82 yds), Kelce (1.81 yds), Kmet (1.52 yds), and Evan Engram (1.42 yds).  

Air Yards % - Darren Waller and Kyle Pitts both share the top spot in air yards percentage at 27%, followed by LaPorta (23%), Andrews (21%), and Kelce (21%).  

Average Depth of Target - Kyle Pitts follows up his air yards performance with having the best ADOT amongst all TEs (11.9 yds), followed by Andrew Ogletree (10.4 yds), Patriots TEs Mike Gesicki & Hunter Henry (9.3 yds each), and George Kittle (8.8 yds).

Yards After The Catch - Evan Engram runs away with this category with 188 yards after the catch. Kelce (147 YAC), LaPorta (141 YAC), Jonnu (138 YAC), and Hockenson (124 YAC) round out the top five.

Receiving Snaps (running a receiving route) - Tyler Higbee was the highest in this metric with 221 receiving snaps, followed by Dallas Goedert (216 snaps), Waller (212 snaps), Engram (210 snaps), and Hockenson (204 snaps).

Pass Blocking % (min 10 tgts) - Dalton Kincaid had the lowest pass-blocking percentage of tight ends with a minimum of 10 targets at 0.7%. Pitts (1%), Hayden Hurst (1.1%), Kyle Granson (1.2%), and Gesicki (1.5%) all see very minimum usage as blockers in passing situations.

Red Zone Targets - Jake Ferguson has the most red zone targets amongst TEs with 11 targets. Travis Kelce has 9 RZ targets, Ertz has 8, and Hockenson, Kmet, & Dalton Schultz each have 7.

TE Team Usage (Wks 2-5) - This final category encapsulates the expected half-PPR fantasy points based on each NFL team’s usage of their TEs. The Falcons lead the league in utilizing their TEs, with 20 expected ½-PPR pts. The Chiefs are second with 16.4 expected ½-PPR pts. The Commanders are third with 15.6 expected ½-PPR pts.

Overall - Through 6 weeks of of action, it is a tight race amongst the elite TEs Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, newcomer Sam LaPorta, and T.J. Hockenson, but unlike previous years there isn’t a massive gulf separating the top TEs from the rest. Even if Kelce appears less god-like in his production compared to previous years, he is still likely to finish as the TE1 in 2023.

Waiver Targets

Spymaster Vanek will provide the latest intel through his America’s Game report. In terms of FAAB bidding, it’s best to review your league’s previous waiver behavior to best navigate the wire. The waiver wire will become more bare as the season continues, especially in best ball formats.

Trade Assets

We have received reports that the Money Moves package Officer ATM was carrying to the rendezvous last week was intercepted and has fallen into enemy hands. Luckily, that package was a decoy and filled with high-valued players that disappointed in week 6. As discussed in the Usage Activity, Adam Thielen and Raheem Mostert are priority assets to acquire. Michael Wilson remains a target of interest for the same upside Marquise Brown has. Lastly, Curtis Samuel may not appear on many analytical radars, but he has dominated defensive backs in the last two weeks and appears to be a focal point of the Bieniemy Operation.