Rookie Research For The 2024 Class - Part III

The quest stands upon the edge of a knife. Stray but a little, and it will fail, to the ruin of all.

Galadriel - Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring

Dynasty is Changed

It all began with the forging of YouTube. Some channels were given to the Film Scouts; discerning, headstrong, and admired above all others. Other channels, to the Data Lords, great miners of analytics and craftsmen of regression tables. And the rest were gifted to the race of Content Creators, who above all else desire Underdog sponsorships. One by one, they released videos on the 2024 Rookie class, fighting over Drake Maye and ranking the Big 3.

But deep in the land of Ohio, in the color-coded cells of an Excel spreadsheet, is forged a master ranking. Into this document is poured the chutzpah, the fanaticism, and the big brains to dominate all other takes. One process to rule them all.

Smoke rises from the City of Detroit, the hour grows late, and you ride to South Harmon seeking how high I have Tyrone Tracy Jr. ranked. For that is why you have come, is it not?

The Draft has a Will of its Own

In the years I have researched rookies, there’s never been a draft like this one. The 2024 class is bursting with offensive talent and the information available is an embarrassment of riches. But despite our wealth of resources, there is little consensus on the highly-touted prospects. With such immense stakes in our rookie drafts, the tensions are high for dynasty managers. To anchor myself before the looming storm of the draft, I investigated the process of NFL decision-makers and scouts (which you can read about in my previous two articles). In researching their evaluation of prospects, I don’t believe the key for us is to jump on hype-trains or kick people off before players become great; a lot of that is luck. It’s about being familiar enough with prospects so that IF they become great, you aren’t surprised. There is so much insight from great minds in the NFL and fantasy space. Exploring new topics and viewpoints can be like discovering a treasure map. You can’t make gold, all you can do is make yourself more open to finding it.

Regional Scout For The South Harmon Shitters

The following players I am highlighting are my favorite bets based on their discounted ADP, their scores in my process, and the attention they have garnered from film analysts. And now, here are the heroes that will shape the fortunes of this draft.

WR

Xavier Legette - In a process that looks to strike gold with discounted players who have unique journeys, there is no prospect I am pulling for more than Xavier Legette. As a 4-Star recruit out of Mullins, SC he was asked to sacrifice playing WR and led his high school as their QB his senior season. Like many players, Xavier’s first season in college was cut short by COVID. The following season he managed 11 games despite being involved in a motorcycle accident. Legette’s ability to persevere through adversity unfortunately came through the tragic loss of both his parents (his mother passed away in 2015 and his father in 2019). With the support of his three siblings, Xavier’s hard work finally paid off with a dominant fifth year at South Carolina.

Xavier Legette’s athleticism is the first thing that jumps out. His 4.34 40-yard dash (97th percentile) and 119-speed score (98th) at 221 lbs are insane. He is 1/4 players to land a 99th percentile Game Athleticism Score from PFF alongside Malik Nabers, Xavier Worthy, and Adonai Mitchell. His ability to convert slants and flat routes into house calls in the blink of an eye is truly stunning. Legette’s elite speed paired with his 40” vertical to high-point balls at an impressive 47.6% rate in contested situations is a formidable combination.

But despite all of his giftings as an athlete, Xavier Legette isn’t a route-running technician that can compete with the elites of the NFL. His 19th percentile success rate versus man coverage will halt the notion that he’ll dominate as an X day 1 in the NFL. Drafting a WR that can break into the top 12/24 producers in the NFL is the biggest longshot amongst all offensive positions given how dominant the established vets are in the league. If I draft a long-shot player at a difficult position, he must be a high-upside player like Xavier Legette. The main determining factor for his success will be his development as a route runner (similar path as DK Metcalf) and his landing spot. Legette has already met with 14 teams during the Draft Process, including the Pittsburgh Steelers and the San Francisco 49ers. Kyle Shanahan is amongst the best in the league at creatively deploying unique pass-catching weapons. Seeing Legette deployed in motion alongside other explosive players like Aiyuk, Deebo, Kittle, and CMC would be a fantasy dream come true. If I swing at a WR after the Big 3, I am more than willing to draft Xavier Legette six to eight slots ahead of his current 2.09 ADP.

Ricky Pearsall - The 2024 WR class may be one of the best we have seen in years because of the plethora of physical X-receivers alongside some athletically gifted players who operate mainly out of the slot. But if a player is limited to one role, perfection is the standard in the NFL. What sticks out to me about Ricky Pearsall is that he excels in various alignments all over the field. Ricky is not a player who stands out with production, but his athletic testing certainly does. Pearsall ran a 4.41 at the combine (90th percentile), had a 135.9 burst score (98th), a 10.69 agility score (97th), and a 10.44 catch radius (99th), which shows up in one of the best catches of the year.

NFL Scouts will fall in love with his diverse usage, vice-grips for hands, and overall dependability in key situations. He also showcased his explosiveness and fluidity with the fastest 3-cone drill at this year’s Scouting Combine (6.64 seconds). Like Xavier Legette, Ricky Pearsall has also garnered the attention of the Pittsburgh Steelers. They met with Pearsall at the Combine and brought him for a Top 30 visit. I can envision him filling the Diontae Johnson void in the Steel City. Ricky Pearsall is a player worth a gamble in the mid-2nd round of rookie drafts, far ahead of his current 3.01 ADP.

Honorable Mention

Adonai Mitchell - One of the most intriguing prospects in this year’s crop of WRs is AD Mitchell. He may be one of the very few I am willing to draft at cost (1.11) despite his production red flags. In terms of key metrics for this class, AD was 21st in PPG (10.76 pts), 26th in Target % (18.1%), 2nd worst (33rd) in TPRR (17.5%), 31st in Y/RR (1.79 yds), and ranked 28th in contested catches (3 for 33.3%). But I’m fascinated with how much Mitchell is challenging my process, especially in terms of film.

Adonai is Steve Smith Sr. and Hayden Wink’s 6th ranked WR, Brett Kollman’s 4th best, and is in the 3rd Tier of prospects since 2021 for Matt Harmon. On top of being one of the favorites of analysts I respect, Mitchell has one of the best athletic profiles in this class. His 4.34 40-yard dash and 117.1 speed score are in the 97th percentile, coupled with a 135.2 burst score (96th), 10.29 catch radius (92nd), and a 99th percentile GAS rating from PFF. Given what scouts most covet in a WR, Adonai’s speed, separation, fluidity, body control, and usage as an outside WR stand out as unique in a class filled with other special players. In terms of explaining his lack of production, I can understand that his role as a purely X-receiver on the line, running down the field at a 16-yard aDOT on mainly nine and dig routes, and fielding passes from an inconsistent QB will negatively impact production. And in keeping with the WR trend, Mitchell has met with the Pittsburgh Steelers multiple times. The possibility of AD being paired with another down-field threat in Pickens is very intriguing.

RB

Audric Estime - Ranked securely in my top 5, Audric Estime is one of the most complete RBs in this class. Anyone who has watched Audric from an endzone view will immediately notice his exceptional play in gap runs. He displays a remarkable feel around the line of scrimmage in the way he patiently follows behind his line and his ability to manipulate incoming defenders. This is further highlighted by the fact that Estime faced more heavy boxes (7 or more defenders in the box pre-snap) than any other RB in college and was only behind Isaiah Davis in terms of efficiency (nearly 6.5 YPC versus heavy boxes). Despite this opposition, no one was more productive than Estime last year (class high 21.26 PPG). At 5’11 and 221 lbs, Audric has the ideal size of a productive NFL back. Estime’s ability to run with such authority “is indicative of a confident grasp of his schematic responsibilities” (Noah Hills) and why I believe scouts are so intrigued with him (most team meetings throughout the draft process of any RB). The number of team meetings may not seem like a big deal, but Daniel Jeremiah states, “The success of a player is directly correlated to the number of points of contact teams have with that player, their exposure, & taking advantage of having as many interactions with them as possible to get a feel for who the player is.”

However, the major reason Estime is on this list is that players like him are why I want to go beyond relying purely on analytics when evaluating players. The fantasy community is pushing down players like him, Bucky Irving, and Blake Corrum after their average to poor 40 times. But would these same people change their minds if they knew that Bucky was tied for the most plays with the fastest GPS-tracked times in all of college football last year (5 times) and that Blake was right behind Bucky (4 times)? And despite a horrendous 4.71 at the combine (17th percentile), Estime was tracked running 20.9 mph in week 2 of 2023. He’s explosive enough to have 38 carries of 10+ yards (5th best in class), 22 carries of 15+ yards (3rd best), 5.33 missed forced tackles/game (5th best), and 4.27 yards after contact/attempt (3rd best). Keon Coleman had the fastest gauntlet speed of any receiver over the last season (20.36 mph) despite a 4.61 40-yard time (26th percentile). Reminiscent of Puca, Keon is faster when the ball is in the air and in his hands. If the film or production doesn’t match up with testing, it should push you to dig deeper.

Ray Davis - A player getting a lot of interest amongst NFL Teams (3rd most team meetings among RBs) but little love in the fantasy community is ultra-productive Kentucky RB Re'Mahn “Ray” Davis. Scoring the most points of any RB I researched, leaving him off this list wasn’t an option for me. What I like most about Ray Davis is his duel-threat ability as a runner and a pass-catching weapon. He averaged 19.2 routes/G (6th best in class) and had a 10.4% target share (2nd best). As a rusher, he handled a 58.7% share of carries (2nd best) and had by far the best dominator rating amongst his peers (19.9%). On film, Ray demonstrated a lively, quick, and aggressive style of play, with his best runs coming on zone concepts where he often made defenders miss and could power through would-be tacklers. The biggest downsides to Ray Davis’ profile are his age (already an old man at 24 years old) and his lack of athleticism compared to other RBs. But given the short window we give RBs anyway, the 4.02 cost is easy to swallow.

Honorable Mention

Blake Corum - Blake Corum is the most obvious steal of the draft. As one of the best RBs in the country throughout most of his career, his relatively down season last year and the questions surrounding his knee injury have scared off many fantasy managers. As concerning as it is to come back from a torn meniscus, a grade II MCL sprain, and a “deep” bone bruise, I encourage any reader to look into the track record of players who recovered from similar injuries. Blake’s treatment, age, and physical ability should inspire confidence that he can fully recover and play at the same level before his injury. A year further removed from his knee injury should return some of the lost explosiveness he suffered last year while recovering. No other RB this year can teach a Masterclass on vision, instinct, and decision-making with as little wasted movement as Corum. And while Estime faced the most 7-man boxes in 2023, Blake was by far and away met with the most 8+ man-boxes last season (109 carries). This and Michigan’s unrelenting commitment to the running game provides some context to Corum’s down season. With the ability to run in various schemes, Blake's compact frame (5’8” & 205 lbs) is ideal for running and passing situations. You won’t find a cheaper potential number-one RB than this year’s Blake Corum at a 2.06 ADP.

TE

Ben Sinnott - Of all the players in rookie drafts this year, Ben Sinnott is the most undervalued prospect by ADP (currently the 4.06). In the same way, my process pointed to Sam LaPorta as the TE1 in last year’s class, I am fully confident Ben Sinnott is neck and neck with Brock Bowers as the TE1 in 2024. At 6’4” and 250 lbs he is an inch taller and 7 pounds heavier than Brock Bowers. At the Combine, he cleared the critical 4.70 threshold we look for in elite TEs with a 4.68 40-yard dash (76th percentile). He also had a 133 burst score (98th), 11.05 agility score, and 10.36 catch radius (95th), which resulted in a 9.73 RAS Score. He is the only TE in history besides Vernon Davis to clear a 40+ inch vertical at the combine weighing 250. RAS Scores for TEs are the closest thing we have in the analytics world to a magic bullet, and Sinnott’s RAS is good enough to rank him 33rd all-time out of 1116 TEs dating back to 1987. That ranks him ahead of athletic freaks like Pitts, Kelce, Kittle, Gronkowski, Njoku, Engram, and LaPorta.

But what separates Ben Sinnott from other gifted TEs like Theo Johnson (who we’ll get to later) and places him in a tier closer to Bowers is his college production and versatility. Sinnott ranked 2nd in PPG (behind Bowers) amongst TEs in this class, 1st in receiving yards share (21.6%), 2nd in receiving yards/team pass attempt (1.59), and 2nd in receiving snaps (332). Pairing this with an ability to line up at fullback, H-Back, at the Y in 11 personnel, and F in 12 personnel is why Ben Sinnott has the 2nd most meetings with teams amongst TEs so far through the pre-draft cycle. He should be going a full round ahead of where he is currently being selected in rookie drafts.

Honorable Mention

Theo Johnson - After running a 4.57 40 at the combine and qualifying for the 9th-best RAS score of all time, Theo Johnson has met with more teams than any other TE throughout the draft process. He may not have the greatest production but with a current 4.08 ADP in rookie drafts, the risk is extremely low on a prospect with truly ridiculous athletic ability.

Questions that Need Answering

To conclude this article, I have disclosed below my precious research, to which I am bound to its fate. Keep it secret, keep it safe.

One important caveat to note with this research: the scores and rankings are based purely on production, athletic testing, and the rankings of experts. My rankings won’t come about until after the NFL Draft. The “Premium Score” is based solely on the metrics I discussed in my previous article, whereas the “Overall Score” includes many other data points. The red scores are guestimation due to missing athletic testing.