T-Rock 11/22/24 T-Rock 11/22/24

WK 11 - WR Buys Of 2024

During the 2023 Campaign, our Agency identified Stefon Diggs, Brandon Aiyuk, Michael Pittman, Keenan Allen, Mike Evans, Courtland Sutton, DeAndre Hopkins, Adam Thielen, Odell Beckham, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Tank Dell, and Noah Brown as WR Interests in the Week 11 Dossier. These WRs were ranked at the time of the week 11 Agency Bulletin and finished as follows in PPR leagues: Diggs 4th (finished 9th), Aiyuk 15th (finished 14th), Pittman 14th (finished 13th), Keenan 2nd (finished 8th), Evans 11th (finished 7th), Sutton 18th (finished 35th), Thielen 10th (finished 17th), Beckham 60th (finished 63rd), Metcalf 29th (finished 21st), Lockett 26th (finished 32nd), Dell 16th (finished 39th), and Brown 61st (finished 67th). Learning from last season, analytics can help identify the top-performing players, but their situation determines a player’s finish.

The Curse of T-Rock

There he goes. One of God's own prototypes. A high-powered mutant of some kind never even considered for mass production. Too weird to live, and too rare to die.

Raoul Duke - Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas

With a Bit of Luck, His Life was Ruined Forever

November 18th, 2024

Westerville, Ohio

It's 9:48 am and morale is already low. Locked in an eternal battle of depression and procrastination, I lay in bed the same way I had most of my life. Curled up in the fetal position with lovesickness, I am reminded of the women who left a lingering and intimate impression on me over the years, and yet I hadn't met any of them. These warriors braved a new and dark virtual world, giving up their precious youth to be subjected to every type of humiliation known to civilization. Their exploits would be immortalized, but their sacrifices would go unhonored under their assumed aliases. Where did they come from to answer such a call and where did they go after their tour? God, I hope they found love amidst their shell shock.

The bolt of encouragement to jumpstart my spirits never comes while I scroll endlessly through the corridors of Twitter and Discord, and now another 30 minutes have passed, and more of my precious sanity is wasted. I eventually straighten my sore legs and slinky out of bed. I enter the bathroom and immediately I feel like I'm in a prison's visitation room as I stare through the window and the man on the other side stares back at me. His shoulders are curled like a sleeping bat and his neck has the chins of a totem pole outside of a reservation. While studying this creature in its natural habitat, I notice the rifle leaning up in the corner of the closet and the urge to put down this wild animal quickly becomes overwhelming, fearing it may escape its candle-scented enclosure and wreak mayhem on the outside world. Contemplating doing the beast in before it tore me to shreds, my trainer texts me. She says I've gained too much weight, but to not be alarmed because she is upping my cardio and limiting my diet. Well, thank God for that! My dream of being a desirable piece of meat was still alive, but there couldn’t be any more delays. A life without carnitas and chips is a fucking prison.

Stepping into my upright sensory deprivation chamber, I crank up the hot water and crack open a cold Modelo to get a head start on my new diet. Shutting out the outside world, every worry and failure slithers up my body like a tropical reptile. Writing deadlines piling up, grocery lists a mile long, and not to mention a wife with a life sentence, doing hard time paying back my liquor debts, waiting downstairs to diagnose my void of a mental state before patting my ass and sending me back on the front lines. She no longer asks me to save money on snacks and booze before I go out, knowing full well that nothing can quell my salty, drunken lusts. Instead, she says “Oh, this looks good!” whenever I return from a treacherous Costco hunt. How many years of sainthood and cocktail dates were left in this poor woman before she reconsiders procreating with this mutant and ushering in a new generation of all-powerful trenchermen? What terrible cosmic wager did she lose with the Almighty to be stuck with me I wonder? If there’s one thing life has taught me, it's that life isn’t fair, but you always get more than you deserve.

Agency Bulletin

Brandon Aiyuk, Michael Pittman, Mike Evans, and DK Metcalf all managed to improve their standings over the final weeks of the season. Both Aiyuk and Pittman were able to maintain their standings thanks to solid play from their QBs and injuries to WRs who were previously ranked ahead of them. Mike Evans and QB buy, Baker Mayfield, became an unstoppable duo over the 2nd half of the season. Metcalf skyrocketed from his WR34 ranking in week 12 to WR18 after his massive performance in week 13 with 6/8 for 134 yards and 3 TDs. He coasted for the rest of the season as a fringe WR2.

Diggs had a brutal end to the season: finishing as the WR13 or better in 7 of the first 9 weeks of 2023, he ranked as the WR45 or worse in 6 of the last 8 weeks. Some might attribute this to scheme and deployment changes, but Diggs simply and dramatically cliffed as a route-runner in Man, Zone, and Press coverages from the very onset of the season. This goes to show that stats do not tell the whole story, and how critical film is when paired with stats.

Keenan, Sutton, Thielen, Beckham, Lockett, Dell, and Noah Brown all became cursed upon making my Buy List last year and went down with an injury immediately upon publication. Holding out until the last moment to avoid trading for an injured player and missing out on all the possible production by not trading for a player sooner is an unforgiving fine line.

With this knowledge in mind, the following assets are in consideration for your Rest-Of-Season Mission. The WoRP values are based upon 12 team leagues, start 10, 25-player rosters, PPR, Lineup, and Best Ball. Do not engage in a trade until the following intel & parameters have been carefully reviewed:

WoRP - Scoring settings & team needs will dictate which assets to pursue. WoRP is a valuable resource in not only establishing priority targets but also secondary and backup options if necessary. This resource can only be accessed through: https://www.southharmonff.com/worp

Managers to Target - Begin negotiations with managers on the opposite side of the standings. If your roster is rebuilding, prioritize trading with teams in the middle who are desperate to contend & whose picks have higher upside. Managers at the bottom of the standings will become more eager to trade away their players to acquire picks as the season progresses. If your roster is in the middle, negotiate with other middling teams. If you are unable to acquire players to contend, then adapt and pursue the other direction with acquiring picks.

Scouting Weeks 12-17 - Prioritize the players with the best matchups during the most critical stage of the season.

FantasyCalc/KeepTradeCut - Where an asset ranks in the field ultimately determines its value. Dynasty Rankings and The Trade Database (which lists the most recent acquisitions of the asset of interest) are invaluable resources in leveraging suitable deals.

Trading Resources - Includes The Trade Checklist, Proactive Trading, Passive Trading, and Trading Stats

https://www.southharmonff.com/articles/category/The+Trading+Series

Buying Players Schedule

Weeks 1-2 - Be willing to trade a 3rd
Weeks 3-4 - Be willing to trade 2x 3rds
Weeks 5-8 - Be willing to trade a 2nd
Weeks 9-12 - Be willing to trade 2x 2nds (or 1x early 2nd)
Weeks 13-16- Be willing to trade a 1st

Many are aware that George Pickens has a special knack for catching any ball thrown his way. Down the field, in the redzone, and in contested situations, few compare to the acrobatic talents of the Pittsburgh WR. But Pickens has been much more than a highlight reel this season. At 7th in Target Share (26.9%), 8th in Yards/Route Run (2.69 yds), and 10th in Targets/Route Run (0.28 tgts), Pickens has operated as a reliable alpha for his team. There’s no doubt that Russell Wilson was the key to unlocking this offense, but if Russ is the key, that makes Pickens the engine that powers the Steelers into Super Bowl contention. With a 47% Air Yards Share (5th in NFL) and 2.58 yds/team pass attempt (5th), George has been utilized by OC Arthur Smith as one of the best down-field playmakers in 2024. With three plus matchups remaining on his schedule, George Pickens is appropriately valued as the WR13 on KTC.

If only Jayden Daniels was born a few years sooner, Terry McLaurin would have been a top 12 dynasty WR during his prime. At 29 years old, McLaurin still has plenty left in the tank in terms of athleticism. His down the field usage (7th in air yards share - 41.8%) and 9 contested catches (3rd in NFL) pair well with Jayden’s pinpoint passing. The clear #1 weapon for his team, Terry is averaging 2.25 yards/team pass attempt (12th) and is on pace to having the best season of his career. In terms of WoRP, Terry McLaurin has been the WR8 in Lineup leagues and the WR9 in Best Ball. With three plus matchups remaining on his schedule and his role on an explosive offense, we value McLaurin higer than his WR27 ranking on KTC, and would take him over Jaylen Waddle, Brandon Aiyuk, Chris Olave, and even Tyreek Hill, who are all ranked ahead of him.

Averaging the 12th most PPR PPG at WR (15.6 pts), Jauan Jennings is the most surprising buy on this list. With major and minor injuries affecting nearly ever other playmaker, Jauan has been the main source of stability for Shanahan’s offense. At 0.145 1st Downs/Route Run (6th) and 2.36 Yards Per Team Pass Attempt (9th), Jennings has been Purdy’s most reliable target in critical situations. With Kittle, Deebo, and Pearsall all occupying underneath/YAC roles, Jennings has shined as the sole down-field threat for the 49ers with 10 contested catches (2nd in NFL). According to Hayden Winks of Underdog, Jennings has the 7th highest production on the 4th highest expected usage amongst all WRs. With CMC still making his way back from injury, San Fran WRs have the 9th highest expected points in the league (30.2 pts). Many managers are unsure what to send or ask for since Jennings' production far outweighs his WR49 ranking on KTC. If there were no other options and a championship was on the line, a late 2nd-round pick would be the top dollar price we could stomach paying for the WR who is likely catching lightning in a bottle for 2024.

Labeled an All-Pro cone by some, Tee Higgins has been both a menace and a hero to managers in 2024. He checks some of the most important boxes we look for in a WR. He plays a key role for Joe Burrow as a chain-mover with the 9th most 1st-Downs/Route Run (0.130), has the 8th highest target share in the NFL (26.5%), and the 10th most yards per team pass attempt (2.32 yds). He also stretches the field with his the 12th largest air yards share in the league (39.2%) and has the 7th most contested catches amongst WRs (7). Not to mention, Tee Higgins plays for the Cincinatti Bengals, who feed their WRs the 3rd most expected points at the position with 39.7 pts. The success of the team’s offense paired with Tee’s role and efficiency has culminated into Higgins scoring the 6th most PPG (18.5 pts), and being the most productive WR on the 2nd best usage according to Hayden Winks. Unfortunately, Tee is not without risk considering the games hes missed with “injury” while he waits for a new contract next year. At WR22 on KTC, we would take him ahead of players like Rashee Rice, DK Metcalf, JSN, and perhaps Rome Odunze in the right scenario. Tee Higgins is a buy for only the most cavalier and savviest of dynasty players.

Of all the players on this list, Cooper Kupp by far and away has the most upside. With the two most correlative metrics that translate to success for WRs, Kupp is 3rd in target share behind Nabers and Jefferson (29.1%) and 3rd in Targets/Route Run behind Rice and Puka (0.33). The Rams are very much in the running to win the NFC West, and with all their key players healthy they stand a good chance to run the tables. McVay has decided that their key to victory will be through the air, and his WRs have benefited more than any other position group in football (1st with 42 expected points). This has translated into another amazing season for Kupp, who is 2nd in PPG (20.1) and has the 6th most production on the 11th best usage for WRs according to Winks. Dynasty managers will of course be wary of his age and proneness to injuries, but at WR33 prices on KTC and the Rams committed to keeping him around, there are only a few guys who can produce at the elite level of Kupp and none of them are at his same cost.

As someone who frequently chooses the Demolition Class in video games, we can not recommend too many others ahead of the human missile, Jameson Williams. The third year player has taken a leap in developing his route-running tree, is averaging the 2nd most YAC/Reception (10.46 yds), and has the 12th best aDOT (15.6 yds), making Jamo one of the most explosive players in 2024. Best of all, he plays a key role on the the Detroit Lions, who are looking to send a message with their unmerciful play and show of utter dominance. Acquiring players that can do things no one else can typically works out well for managers, and as the WR30 on KTC, it isn’t until you reach Tyreek Hill at WR24 that you encounter a player of the same ilk. Every team needs that final piece to put them over the top and send shivers down their opponent’s spines. Pull the pin and go out in a blaze of glory with Jameson Williams.

Khalil Shakir and Courtland Sutton round out the Buy List as the best WR3 and depth pieces managers can acquire in 2024. The #1 option for two of the best teams in the AFC, both Shakir and Sutton have operated as their teams’ most reliable and productive options for their terrific QBs. Shakir gets home with his elite YAC ability (8.46 yds/rec - 6th), but on film he serves a critical role in beating both man and zone coverage on underneath, over the middle, and blitz situations for the Bills. For more info on Shakir, be sure to check out Matt Harmon’s article, Khalil Shakir and the ideal type of wide receiver for the modern NFL. A buy in 2023, Sutton continues to be undervalued with the 7th best air yards share in the NFL (41.8%), and has the 7th best usage amongst receivers for a Broncos team that rewards their WRs with the 4th best expected points in the league (37.2 pts), according to Hayden Winks. With a KTC ranking of WR40 and WR47 for Shakir and Sutton respectively, these playmakers are the perfect under-the-radar buy for sharp managers.

Wan’Dale, Jakobi, Adams, Tillman, and Downs were all considered WR buys because of their production and price. But they are ultimately too risky, considering the instability of their offenses and quarterback play.

Works Cited

FantasyPros
PFF
Fantasy Points Data
PlayerProfiler
Khalil Shakir and the ideal type of wide receiver for the modern NFL by Matt Harmon

https://receptionperception.com/khalil-shakir-and-the-ideal-type-of-wide-receiver-for-the-modern-nfl/

NFL Week 12 Fantasy Football Rankings - The Blueprint by Hayden Winks

https://underdognetwork.com/football/fantasy-rankings/nfl-week-12-fantasy-football-rankings-the-blueprint-2024

The Dossier

Image created by DK

T-Rock 11/13/24 T-Rock 11/13/24

WK 10 - Top 2024 WRs

Dynasty continues to be a Wide Receiver-driven market. If QBs are the foundation of any well-constructed team, the pillars of your roster are the WR position. Carefully review the following receivers vetted by our WR Candidate process (sample = min. 10 targets).

WR Bona Fides

Baseline

PPG (PPR): Courtesy of FantasyPros

1. Ja’Marr Chase - 22.5 PPG

2. Nico Collins - 21.3 PPG

3. Chris Godwin - 19.7 PPG

4. Justin Jefferson - 18.6 PPG

5. Cooper Kupp - 18.4 PPG

6. CeeDee Lamb - 17.4 PPG

6. Malik Nabers - 17.4 PPG

8. Amon-Ra St. Brown - 17 PPG

9. A.J. Brown - 16.9 PPG

10. Garrett Wilson - 16.6 PPG

11. Rashee Rice - 16.2 PPG

11. Tee Higgins - 16.2 PPG

Strong Indicators

Target Share %: Courtesy of Fantasy Points Data

1. Malik Nabers - 33.8%

2. Justin Jefferson - 29.7%

3. A.J. Brown - 28.6%

4. Cooper Kupp - 28%

5. Garrett Wilson - 27.6%

6. Amon-Ra St. Brown - 26.9%

7. Tee Higgins - 26.7%

8. Chris Godwin - 26.1%

9. Josh Downs - 25.9%

9. George Pickens - 25.9%

11. Davante Adams - 25.3%

12. CeeDee Lamb - 25.1%

Targets Per Route Run: Courtesy of Fantasy Points Data

1. Rashee Rice - 0.35

2. Malik Nabers - 0.33

2. Josh Downs - 0.33

4. Cooper Kupp - 0.32

4. Puka Nacua - 0.32

6. Dontayvion Wicks - 0.31

7. Adonai Mitchell - 0.3

8. Amon-Ra St. Brown - 0.29

8. CeeDee Lamb - 0.29

10. Justin Jefferson - 0.28

10. Garrett Wilson - 0.28

10. Chris Godwin - 0.28

10. Nico Collins - 0.28

Fair Indicators

Contested Catches: Courtesy of Fantasy Points Data

1. Drake London - 11

2. CeeDee Lamb - 9

2. Garrett Wilson - 9

2. Terry McLaurin - 9

5. Allen Lazard - 8

6. Malik Nabers - 7

6. Chris Godwin - 7

6. Romeo Doubs - 7

6. Michael Wilson - 7

10. Justin Jefferson - 6

10. Tee Higgins - 6

10. George Pickens - 6

10. Davante Adams - 6

10. Jauan Jennings - 6

10. Darnell Mooney - 6

10. DJ Moore - 6

10. Darius Slayton - 6

10. Michael Pittman - 6

Air Yards Share: Courtesy of Fantasy Points Data

1. Malik Nabers - 49.5%

1. Calvin Ridley - 49.5%

3. A.J. Brown - 48.4%

4. Rashid Shaheed - 48.2%

5. George Pickens - 44.6%

6. Terry McLaurin - 43.4%

7. DK Metcalf - 43%

8. Nico Collins - 42.6%

9. Justin Jefferson - 42.4%

10. Marvin Harrison Jr. - 41.5%

11. Courtland Sutton - 40.8%

12. Tee Higgins - 40.4%

Yards Per Route Run: Courtesy of Fantasy Points Data

1. A.J. Brown - 3.79

2. Nico Collins - 3.63

3. Rashee Rice - 3.47

4. Justin Jefferson - 2.99

5. Jauan Jennings - 2.84

5. Jayden Reed - 2.84

7. George Pickens - 2.74

8. Terry McLaurin - 2.64

9. Chris Godwin - 2.62

10. Puka Nacua - 2.6

11. Ja'Marr Chase - 2.59

12. Khalil Shakir - 2.54

1st Downs Per Route Run: Courtesy of Fantasy Points Data

1. Rashee Rice - 0.181

2. Nico Collins - 0.173

3. A.J. Brown - 0.158

4. Amon-Ra St. Brown - 0.148

5. Chris Godwin - 0.145

6. Puka Nacua - 0.135

7. Justin Jefferson - 0.133

8. Tee Higgins - 0.132

9. Jauan Jennings - 0.131

10. Terry McLaurin - 0.13

11. Josh Downs - 0.126

12. Chris Olave - 0.124

Faint Indicator

Yards After The Catch: Courtesy of Fantasy Points Data

1. JuJu Smith-Schuster - 10 yds

2. Jameson Williams - 9.3 yds

3. Keon Coleman - 9.27 yds

4. Kalif Raymond - 8.71 yds

5. Quentin Johnston - 8.7 yds

6. Khalil Shakir - 8.69 yds

7. Mecole Hardman - 8.6 yds

8. Deebo Samuel Sr. - 8.41 yds

9. Jayden Reed - 8.08 yds

10. Rashee Rice - 8 yds

11. Ryan Miller - 7.83 yds

12. Xavier Worthy - 7.75 yds

Avg Depth Of Target: Courtesy of Fantasy Points Data

1. Jermaine Burton - 24.2 yds

2. Alec Pierce - 22.4 yds

3. Jalin Hyatt - 20.8 yds

4. Marquez Valdes-Scantling - 18.8 yds

5. Rashid Shaheed - 17.7 yds

5. Simi Fehoko - 17.7 yds

7. Bo Melton - 17.6 yds

8. Kayshon Boutte - 17.1 yds

9. Demarcus Robinson - 16.8 yds

10. Jameson Williams - 16.3 yds

11. Calvin Ridley - 16.1 yds

12. Christian Watson - 15.9 yds

Receiving Yards Per Team Pass Attempt: Courtesy of Player Profiler

1. A.J. Brown - 3.95 yds

2. Justin Jefferson - 3.16 yds

3. Nico Collins - 2.98 yds

4. Ja'Marr Chase - 2.74 yds

5. George Pickens - 2.6 yds

6. Terry McLaurin - 2.47 yds

7. Chris Godwin - 2.46 yds

8. Rashee Rice - 2.38 yds

8. Zay Flowers - 2.38 yds

10. DeVonta Smith - 2.34 yds

11. Jauan Jennings - 2.25 yds

12. Jayden Reed - 2.22 yds

Underdog Considerations

HPPR (Production) Rank: Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog

1. Ja'Marr Chase

2. Cedric Tillman

3. CeeDee Lamb

4. George Pickens

5. Jaxon Smith-Njigba

6. Amon-Ra St. Brown

7. Puka Nacua

8. Justin Jefferson

9. Jakobi Meyers

10. Calvin Ridley

11. Terry McLaurin

12. A.J. Brown

EXP (Expectation) Rank: Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog

1. CeeDee Lamb

2. Ja'Marr Chase

3. Puka Nacua

4. Cedric Tillman

5. Jauan Jennings

6. Calvin Ridley

7. Davante Adams

8. Malik Nabers

9. Deebo Samuel Sr.

10. Cooper Kupp

11. Drake London

12. Jakobi Meyers

WR Team Usage (Expected Fantasy Points) (Wks 7-10): Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog

1. Cleveland Browns - 38.3 pts

1. Los Angeles Rams - 38.3 pts

3. Dallas Cowboys - 35.4 pts

4. Denver Broncos - 32.9 pts

5. New York Jets - 32.3 pts

6. Cincinnati Bengals - 31.3 pts

7. Green Bay Packers - 30.7 pts

8. Chicago Bears - 30.4 pts

9. Tennessee Titans - 30.1 pts

10. New York Giants - 29.6 pts

10. Indianapolis Colts - 29.6 pts

12. San Francisco 49ers - 29.1 pts

Results

Overall Scores:

1. Justin Jefferson - 49 pts

2. Ja'Marr Chase - 46 pts

3. A.J. Brown - 44 pts

4. CeeDee Lamb - 43 pts

4. George Pickens - 43 pts

6. Malik Nabers - 42 pts

7. Terry McLaurin - 40 pts

7. Jauan Jennings - 40 pts

9. Chris Godwin - 37 pts

9. Puka Nacua - 37 pts

9. Nico Collins - 37 pts

9. Rashee Rice - 37 pts

Works Cited

FantasyPros
Fantasy Points Data
PlayerProfiler
NFL Week 10 Recap - Fantasy Usage Model by Hayden Winks

https://underdognetwork.com/football/analysis/nfl-week-10-recap-fantasy-usage-model

The Dossier

Image created by DK