WK 5 - Superpowers

Elite Fantasy Franchises Of 2024

Wanting people to listen, you can't just tap them on the shoulder anymore. You have to hit them with a sledgehammer, and then you'll notice you've got their strict attention.

John Doe - Se7en

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SITREP - Superpowers

Superpower franchises are the most influential teams in the NFL, with the best players for fantasy football. Their offensive ecosystems provide managers with high-end production at nearly every position. With elite offensive talent top to bottom, amazing coaching, and solid defenses, players on these rosters epitomize championship caliber.  

Saints - The Saints made this tier by the narrowest of margins. Alvin Kamara is rarely mentioned in the same breath as CMC, King Henry, and Saquon Barkley as one of the best RBs of his generation, but at age 29 the future Hall of Famer still plays like one of the best players in the NFL. Sadly, the Saints will continue to lose much of their early season momentum with Derek Carr being sidelined for multiple weeks with a torn oblique. This puts a massive damper on Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, who was having a career year and on pace as a top 20 WR. Carr’s injury opens the door for rookie Spencer Rattler, who did not receive the best grade from us as a prospect but is interesting considering New Orleans’ playmakers and coaches. In a season of surprises, the once-projected 1.01 is worth an add as a bye-week QB. If Rattler can’t handle the offense, then Kamara and Taysom Hill will likely be run into the ground until Carr returns.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.44 (24th in NFL), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 84.2 (2nd), RunBlk = 65.6 (14th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Derek Carr = 87.8 (1st), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 81.2 (9th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 22.5 pts (7th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 77.7 (3rd), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 24.5 pts (23rd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 6 pts (28th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 65.8 (15th), RunD = 51.7 (27th), PassRsh = 69.1 (15th), Cov = 68.4 (13th), (Courtesy PFF) 

Upcoming Schedule - Home vs TB, home vs DEN, at LAC, at CAR, home vs ATL, at CLE, home vs LAR, at NYG, home vs WAS  

Packers - The Packers are an odd team. They are the most run-heavy team in the NFL, but Josh Jacobs is shockingly the RB24 with only 1 TD. Their Neutral Pass Rate is interesting considering their talent at receiver, with Jayden Reed playing like a superstar and Tucker Kraft thriving as the Last of the TE Tribe. Green Bay seems reluctant to put too much on Jordan Love’s shoulders despite his embarrassment of riches at receiver. His performance so far this season looks nowhere near his level of play in 2023, and yet he is still averaging the 4th most fantasy points at QB. They're certainly not showing any signs of slowing, so it may be best to get on this wild boat ride where there's no earthly way of knowing which direction LaFleur has his team going.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.31 (32nd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 81.3 (1st), RunBlk = 56.7 (26th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Jordan Love = 61.9 (24th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 88.7 (2nd), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 20.4 pts (16th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 66.6 (20th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 24.2 pts (21st), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 28.3 pts (18th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 63.9 (17th-tied), RunD = 57.4 (23rd), PassRsh = 65 (21st), Cov = 67.3 (15th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - Home vs ARI, home vs HOU, at JAX, home vs DET, at CHI, home vs 49ers, home vs MIA, at DET, at SEA  

Eagles - Fully healthy, could the Eagles support a #1 at every position in fantasy? Yes, they could, which is what we fully expect once the team returns from their bye-week and hopefully welcomes back both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. This elite duo should settle the erratic play of Jalen Hurts, who should still be considered an elite fantasy QB with his rushing upside. With critical injuries to the offense and poor play from the defense, the Eagles are desperate to avoid repeating the disappointment of 2023. Helping Hurts shoulder the load is a fantasy godsend, Saquon Barkley, who is arguably the best RB in football right now. Invest in this offense now and cross your fingers that they can stay healthy enough for a massive offensive surge the rest of the way.  

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.49 (14th - tied), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 72.6 (8th), RunBlk = 73.3 (6th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Jalen Hurts = 51.7 (32nd), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 81.4 (8th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 20.6 pts (14th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 70.2 (16th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 21.3 pts (27th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 12.7 pts (1st), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 62.6 (23rd), RunD = 49 (28th), PassRsh = 77.2 (5th), Cov = 61.7 (21st), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - Home vs CLE, at NYG, at CIN, home vs JAX, at DAL, home vs WAS, at LAR, at BAL, home vs CAR

Buccaneers - Few passing attacks have looked as great as Baker Mayfield with the Buccaneers this season. The offense looks better than last year, despite losing their talented OC Dave Canales, all thanks to Baker having the best season start of his career. Chris Godwin and Mike Evans both look unstoppable as top 10 WRs. One of the most interesting players is rookie RB Bucky Irving. Bucky has outperformed Rachaad White, but it may not matter since the Bucs have one of the most dominant personnel groups in the NFL when both RBs are on the field together. Tampa Bay offers the best values in all of fantasy football.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.55 (7th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 70.9 (10th), RunBlk = 64.5 (15th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Baker Mayfield = 80.6 (5th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 74.7 (21st), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 18.4 pts (25th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 73 (10th-tied), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 28.5 pts (17th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 8.5 pts (18th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 66.8 (14th), RunD = 48.8 (29th), PassRsh = 69 (16th), Cov = 75.4 (7th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - At NO, home vs BAL, home vs ATL, at KC, home vs SF, at NYG, at CAR, home vs LV, at LAC  

49ers - The 49ers have not had the best start to their 2024 season, but make no mistake that San Francisco is still one of the best offensive teams in the NFL. Purdy is not wowing managers who only look at the final stat lines. But anyone who watches the games has seen the signal caller routinely make impressive throws in a dynamic offense tailor-made to his skillset. Losing the offensive player of the year in CMC would crush most teams, but Jordan Mason has been nothing short of spectacular. The waiver-wire god is playing like a top-5 RB. The biggest area of needed improvement has been the defense closing out games and the redzone offense, which too often settles for FGs instead of TDs. Their game against Seattle will be a turning point in week 6. 

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.51 (10th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 68.9 (13th), RunBlk = 78.3 (2nd), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Brock Purdy = 84 (3rd), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 75.7 (17th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 18.5 pts (23rd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 78.3 (2nd), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 35.1 pts (5th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 12.6 pts (2nd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 73.6 (6th - tied), RunD = 55.3 (25th), PassRsh = 76.5 (6th), Cov = 79.8 (4th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - At SEA, home vs kc, home vs dal, at TB, home vs SEA, at GB, at BUF, home vs CHI, home vs LAR    

Texans - Houston may not be winning as impressively as in 2023, but the team has shown true grit persevering through injuries to be at 4-1. C.J. Stroud is building off his historic rookie season and solidifying himself as an elite passer. The chemistry between Stroud and Nico Collins is otherworldly. Unfortunately, Collins is now on IR with a hamstring injury, which likely derails his prospect of joining the elite tier of WRs this year, but reopens his buy window. With Stefon Diggs playing at a high level, and Tank Dell looking to rekindle last year’s dominance, this offense is still dangerous. The Texans would greatly benefit from the return of Joe Mixon but given the ravages of time, he may not endure the 2024 season.   

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.51 (12th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 79.1 (12th), RunBlk = 59.9 (22nd), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - C.J. Stroud = 76.5 (9th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 73.5 (22nd), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 19.4 pts (19th-tied), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 79.1 (1st), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 36.1 pts (4th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 7.7 pts (19th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 63.9 (17th-tied), RunD = 60.1 (20th), PassRsh = 64.9 (22nd), Cov = 63.6 (18th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - At NE, at GB, home vs IND, at NYJ, home vs DET, at DAL, home vs TEN, at JAX, home vs MIA

Seahawks - What started as great for Seattle has been tough sledding over the last two weeks with no sign of relief until their week 10 bye. Mike Macdonald and Ryan Grubb have made the Seahawks exciting again for fantasy football. Geno Smith leads an impressive WR trio for an offense that leads the league in Neutral Pass Rate. According to PFF, their passing attack is complemented by one of the best backfields in the NFL, which ranks first in Run Rating. The Achilles heel of this team may be their offensive line, which allowed 7 sacks in their latest contest versus the Giants. This issue makes it tough to fully trust in any of the WRs besides DK Metcalf, who is enjoying one of the best seasons of his career. In the year of our lord 2024, RBs are king, so put your faith in Walker and Charbonnet as they carry you to a championship.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.71 (1st), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 52.8 (27th), RunBlk = 66.4 (13th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Geno Smith = 73.8 (10th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 91.7 (1st), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 17.1 pts (27th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 71.7 (14th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 38 pts (3rd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 7.3 pts (22nd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 74.2 (5th), RunD = 68.5 (7th), PassRsh = 65.9 (19th), Cov = 75.5 (6th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - Home vs SF, at ATL, home vs BUF, home vs LAR, at SF, home vs ARI, at NYJ, at ARI, home vs GB    

Lions - Tattered pleather booths, “Higher” by Creed playing on the jukebox, an order of 50¢ boneless wings with an ice cold Bud, and watching smash-mouth football. No, you haven’t died and gone to Heaven, but Dan Campbell’s Lions may be the closest thing we get to paradise in this life. Like many other Superpower franchises, Detroit asserts its dominance by pummeling defenses with its rushing attack. Montgomery and Gibbs have hit the ground running, while the passing attack deciphers how to recapture the spark from 2023. Jameson Williams’ breakout season has been the lone bright spot of the passing offense this year. His speed and big-play ability are exactly what the Lions need while Goff, Amon-Ra, and LaPorta figure out how to assert their prowess as one of the best trios in football.  

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.48 (17th - tied), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 74.4 (6th), RunBlk = 75.4 (4th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Jared Goff = 54.6 (29th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 86.8 (5th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 27.4 pts (1st), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 73.3 (8th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 30.1 pts (13th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 6.1 pts (26th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 76.6 (2nd), RunD = 68.2 (8th), PassRsh = 85 (2nd), Cov = 68.6 (11th - tied), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - At DAL, at MIN, home vs TEN, at GB, at HOU, home vs JAX, at IND, home vs CHI, home vs GB    

Vikings - There is no one in the NFL who can stand against the Vikings! Led by a QB everyone believed to be dead, Kevin O’Connell has resurrected Sam Darnold’s career with a passing attack that pushes the ball deep down the throats of defenses. The only blunder more egregious than fading Justin Jefferson was drafting the Madden Cursed CMC. This is only further compounded by Aaron Jones’ excellent play, who at age 29 was the 10th-best RB before his injury. Behind Brian Flores’ exotic defense and O’Connell’s clear vision on offense, Minnesota could sustain their success on their narrow way to a Super Bowl.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.51 (11th - tied), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 68.6 (15th), RunBlk = 78 (3rd), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Sam Darnold = 65.8 (20th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 75.1 (18th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 22.1 pts (9th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 73 (10th - tied), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 27.5 pts (19th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 5.4 pts (30th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 71.2 (11th), RunD = 79.1 (2nd), PassRsh = 56.4 (28th), Cov = 74.9 (8th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - Home vs DET, at LAR, home vs IND, at JAX, at TEN, at CHI, home vs ARI, home vs ATL, home vs CHI

Works Cited

• PFF

• NFL Week 5 Recap - Fantasy Usage Model by Hayden Winks

https://underdognetwork.com/football/news/nfl-week-5-recap-fantasy-usage-model-2024

The Dossier

Image created by DK

WK 4 - Besieged Powers

Good Franchises That Could Be Great in 2024

The Force is with you, young Skywalker. But you are not a Jedi yet.
Darth Vader - Star Wars: Episode V - The Empire Strikes Back

Image created by T-Rock

Logjammin’ 

I know why you are here. You’re craving a compelling story with high production value. You also appreciate an emotional connection, delivered through clever literary structures and thought-provoking themes.

“Fuck that! How much should I bid on Kareem Hunt!?” shouts the crowd from the Mutantverse. “Why don’t the Colts make Joe Flacco the starter??? Have they seen ARich pass the ball?!”

Regrettably, the standards have fallen with the written medium while competing with YouTube. The market has clarified that anything more than “buy, sell, sit, start, and rankings” wastes the audience’s time. Advancements in analytics and tools equip fantasy players to compete unlike ever before. But does access to technology and content lead to more championships for managers? 

Yes and no. Having well-researched information from trusted sources can help players make better decisions. But we are an over-stimulated culture, over-burdened with anxiety, and incapable of patience. We can find this same experience in many other aspects of our culture. Take, for instance, the adult entertainment industry. 

Due in part to the ease of access and proliferation of explicit content, the average male lasts less than five minutes in bed and is often left with a profound sense of fatigue and a feeling of emptiness (not that I would know). Some subjects have described this sensation as “a loss of essence.” This phenomenon is strikingly similar to what Fantasy Psychologists have coined “Post-Trade Clarity.” Fantasy addicts, often referred to as “degenerates,” on average consume 2-4 hours of fantasy content per day, leading to idealized and usually unrealistic standards for their rosters. Now with a picture in mind of what a “successful” roster construction looks like, degenerates become obsessed with improving their team, frequently spending hours that stretch late into the early morning hunting for the perfect trade. Sadly, there are detrimental effects to this type of behavior, including but not limited to: 

• Pathological Trading: Managers who believe their own lies regarding player valuations in order to be more convincing salesmen in trade talks. 

• KTC Dissociation: The inability to separate KTC’s Trade Calculator values from reality. 

• Contending Impostorism: Belief that your team is championship caliber despite being outside the top three in scoring.

• Asset Hoarding Disorder: A strong emotional attachment to players that skews their market value, often leading to unrealistic prices and holding players far past their sell windows.

These conditions, shortness of QBs in superflex leagues, Post Injury Stress Disorder, and many other symptoms have become pervasive in fantasy football. As someone who has lived with these plights for nearly twenty years, I recognize that acknowledging the issues is the first step in treatment. I have a long road to recovery.

SITREP - Besieged Powers

The following teams are often good, and occasionally great. However, similar to me regarding math problems and women in school, these franchises need help. They haven’t cracked the code yet to operate as a cohesive ensemble, and instead revolve their offense around one or two players. Overall, they haven't reached their full potential and are lacking consistency. With that said, these offenses still showcase some of the best players in the entire league, and it will be only a matter of time for some of these teams to ramp up and join the Superpowers.

Chiefs - Beginning with the positives, Steve Spagnuolo doesn’t get nearly enough recognition as one of the best DCs in the NFL. His coaching, along with Andy Reid and Mahomes, is a major reason the Chiefs can even come close to creating a dyasty. Unfortunately, the same can not be said of Matt Nagy as the OC. Since replacing Eric Bieniemy, Mahomes’ fantasy production has dropped dramatically (8th in 2023, 16th in 2024). Mahomes was a top 4 fantasy QB in 4/5 years under Bieniemy. Funneling the entire offense through Rashee Rice and Isiah Pacheco was only great for Rice and Pacheco owners until they were lost to injury. Watching Mahomes, it is clear he is still the best QB in the NFL. Trading for the QB now in hopes of an OC change next season is a no-brainer move, but still remains difficult. Managers don’t want to trade for the depressed production, and owners don’t want to trade at any discount. It remains to be seen if Travis Kelce and Kareem Hunt have aged like fine wine or will play like piss and vineagar.   

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.51 (11th in NFL), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 67.5 (17th), RunBlk = 68.2 (10th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Patrick Mahomes = 70.7 (16th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 77.5 (13th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 21.6 pts (9th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 69.1 (17th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 19.5 pts (28th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 10 pts (5th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 69.3 (14th), RunD = 67.2 (9th), PassRsh = 74.1 (7th), Cov = 62.1 (21st), (Courtesy PFF) 

Upcoming Schedule - Home vs NO, at SF, at LV, home vs TB, home vs DEN, at BUF, at CAR, home vs LV, home vs LAC  

Cowboys - The Cowboys are a great example of how having the WORST defense in the league can cripple an offense. At 29th in time of possession, and one of the worst run games in the league, Dallas becomes pigeonholed on offense. With an offensive line that has taken a huge step back since last year, defenses can pin their ears back and dial up blitzes all game long. Dak has played well despite the team’s deficiencies, including as a top-10 passer when facing pressure and the blitz. The Cowboys are one of the few teams that took a glaring step back during the offseason and it's showing up now.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.55 (5th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 63.5 (21st), RunBlk = 58.7 (24th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Dak Prescott = 64.5 (25th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 67.2 (25th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 16.8 pts (29th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 66.6 (19th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 30.3 pts (8th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 9.6 pts (7th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 52 (32nd), RunD = 37.7 (32nd), PassRsh = 65 (21st), Cov = 59.2 (23rd), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - At PIT, home vs DET, at SF, at ATL, home vs PHI, home vs HOU, at WAS, home vs NYG, home vs CIN  

Bills - No QB is playing better than Josh Allen. With a rag-tag group of slot receivers and a defense that lost a lot of players to free agency, many predicted a rough 2024 for the Bills. A lot of props need to be given to the defensive coaches for developing their young talent, and a lot more kudos to Joe Brady’s work with the offense and James Cook. Not much should be made of the complete dismantling by Baltimore; the Ravens are going to expose a lot of teams with Derrick Henry.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.52 (9th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 71.6 (9th), RunBlk = 59.3 (22nd), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Josh Allen = 72.6 (14th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 86.3 (4th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 19.3 pts (18th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 69.4 (15th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 20.2 pts (27th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 8.2 pts (15th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 62.5 (22nd), RunD = 50.9 (28th), PassRsh = 75.5 (6th), Cov = 59 (24th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - At HOU, home vs SEA, home vs MIA, at IND, home vs KC, home vs SF, at LAR, at DET, home vs NE  

Cardinals - Similar to the Cowboys, the Cardinals are hampered by one of the worst defenses in the league. With the last two blowout losses, ¾ of the game recaps has been watching the defense get eviscerated by opposing offenses. However, unlike Dallas, Arizona has a competent run game with one of the must underrated RBs in football, James Conner. Led by Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride, the Cardinals should have one of the best air raids in the league. But through scheme, QB chemistry, or poor coaching, the Cardinals haven’t been anywhere close to the air show we expected.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.45 (22nd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 68.8 (13th), RunBlk = 68.1 (11th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Kyler Murray = 76.1 (9th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 71.8 (20th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 18.3 pts (24th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 74.4 (6th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 24.2 pts (21st), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 8.9 pts (10th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 54.7 (30th), RunD = 59.9 (18th), PassRsh = 54.4 (30th), Cov = 50.6 (28th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - At SF, at GB, home vs LAC, at MIA, home vs CHI, home vs NYJ, at SEA, at MIN, home vs SEA    

Rams - The Los Angeles Rams are the ultimate “what could have been” team of 2024. Not since the Red Wedding has there been a more heartbreaking loss to a team than what the Rams have suffered with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. Tutu Atwell and Jordan Whittington have done their best to fill in, but are a far cry from the talents of their injured teammates. Compounding these backbreakers have been injuries and poor play from the offensive line, giving Stafford a nearly impossible hill to climb. Picking up from where he left off last season, Kyren Williams has been the lone bright spot so far this year. As a dual-threat RB, Kyren can be utilized on offense no matter the game script, making him one of the most valuable RBs in fantasy. With a talented Blake Corum still waiting in the wings for his shot, we fully expect to see the McVay-led Rams join the Superpowers once Puka and Kupp return. 

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.58 (3rd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 39.6 (32nd), RunBlk = 65.1 (14th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Matthew Stafford = 59.8 (31st), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 74.6 (17th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 21.9 pts (5th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 73.9 (7th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 32.1 pts (6th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 6.3 pts (26th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 58.6 (26th), RunD = 60.8 (16th), PassRsh = 68.9 (14th), Cov = 48.3 (29th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - Home vs GB, home vs LV, home vs MIN, at SEA, home vs MIA, at NE, home vs PHI, at NO, home vs BUF

Ravens - Derrick Henry in purple and black is the most beautiful thing we’ve seen in Baltimore since the days of Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. At 30 years old, the immortal King could have the best season of his Hall of Fame career. The two-time MVP Lamar Jackson is playing lights out as one of the greatest QBs we have ever seen. So why isn’t this team ranked amongst the Superpowers? The passing attack for Baltimore has been nonexistent through the first quarter of the season, rendering Zay Flowers as an upside FLEX option. In strong contention for the most disappointing healthy player in 2024 is Mark Andrews. His 6/9 for 65 scoreless yards through four games is criminal. Isaiah Likely may be the Ravens TE of the future, but what does it matter?

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.35 (32nd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 78.1 (3rd), RunBlk = 76.3 (3rd), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Lamar Jackson = 79 (6th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 88.8 (2nd), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 22.9 pts (4th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 69.2 (16th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 17 pts (31st), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 9.7 pts (6th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 72.8 (6th-tied), RunD = 75.5 (3rd), PassRsh = 71.4 (10th), Cov = 67.2 (15th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - Home vs CIN, home vs WAS, at TB, home vs CLE, at DEN, at CIN, home vs PIT, at LAC, home vs PHI

Works Cited

• PFF

• NFL Week 4 Recap - Fantasy Usage Model by Hayden Winks

https://underdognetwork.com/football/analysis/nfl-week-4-recap-fantasy-usage-model-2024

The Dossier

Image created by DK

WK 3 - Depressed States

Franchises That Can Make or Break 2024

Okay. All right, now, let's see. Where were we? Oh, yes. In the Pit of Despair.

Grandpa - The Princess Bride

Image created by T-Rock

Burned

“Hey! It’s my birthday, do you want to come over to my place and watch The Iron Claw?” you say to your co-worker, who is way out of your league. She smiles at you saying, “Oh my God, that would be great!” before quickly walking away. In preparation for your pity date, you wrestle yourself into your favorite pop-culture T-shirt from Khol’s, which now feels kid-sized. The scent of black cherry merlot wafts through your studio apartment, doing its best to drown out the aroma of cat litter and kill socks. You quickly look down at your vibrating phone, hoping it's her. It’s your mom asking you for the HBO MAX password so she can watch Furiosa. An hour and a half have passed before it finally sinks in that she isn’t coming. A knock at the door catapults you from your hookah-burned loveseat. It's the Uber Eats driver with your $28 Taco Bell order, now for one. You eat the whole thing. All in all, not such a bad birthday. That is until you open up your Sleeper app. 0-3, 0-3, 1-2 with the lowest points scored, 0-3. Most embarrassing of course being your winless work-league team, where half of the managers have never played before, and all of them know you are big into fantasy football. What once began as “My Year!” has quickly devolved into “my last year...”

SITREP - Depressed States

High hopes and significant capital were invested in the following teams for the 2024 fantasy season. Like the job prospects in a shit economy, you feel misled and disappointed, the same way most parents feel about their kids. Some of these franchises may turn it around, allowing their star players to flourish. But for the most part, these teams’ weaknesses will hold their players back from living up to their potential, similar to me with my Master’s degree. Caught in the awful dilemma of holding players that may never ascend or trading players before their resurgence, these teams epitomize the fantasy Catch-22.

Patriots - Some people are interested in knowing what life was like a hundred years ago and spend their weekends at museums. If you love boring, dusty football, look no further than the New England Patriots, who put the “Old” in Old School. Their game plan revolves around sound defense, running the ball with a bellcow RB, and keeping the ball safe on passing downs. They often don’t pass the ball further than 10 yards downfield given subpar line play. Rhamondre Stevenson will have decent games throughout the season, but negative game scripts and zero threat of explosive plays through the air will hamper the Rhino. 

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.42 (28th in NFL), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 54 (28th), RunBlk = 56.2 (27th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Jacoby Brissett = 62.2 (24th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 75.8 (14th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 21.7 pts (12th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 60.6 (26th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 15.2 pts (32nd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 11.7 pts (2nd-tied), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 67.1 (13th), RunD = 58.5 (19th), PassRsh = 71.3 (7th), Cov = 65 (19th), (Courtesy PFF) 

Upcoming Schedule - At SF, home vs MIA, home vs HOU, at JAX, home vs NYJ, at TEN, at CHI, home vs LAR, at MIA  

Bears - Caleb Willams has every tool to become a successful QB. Unfortunately, he plays for the Bears, who once again have proven why no offensive player can succeed in Chicago. The narrative that the offensive line has been revamped was a bald-faced lie. This gives the Bears no chance of having positive momentum through the air or on the ground. If this wasn’t enough, the Bears have the worst OC in the entire league. Hold onto Caleb and Rome Odunze, looking forward to next year.  

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.54 (8th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 70.5 (11th), RunBlk = 59.9 (22nd), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Caleb Williams = 48.6 (40th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 59.9 (30th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 17.9 pts (23rd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 60.3 (27th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 34.6 pts (4th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 11 pts (6th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 72.1 (7th), RunD = 61.7 (13th), PassRsh = 70.9 (8th), Cov = 74 (6th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - Home vs LAR, home vs CAR, home vs JAX, at WAS, at ARI, home vs NE, home vs GB, home vs MIN, at DET  

Raiders - A Jekyll and Hyde team, the Raiders operate purely on emotion, punching well above their weight class as underdogs, but also capable of collapse against lesser teams. Gardner Minshew exhausted all of his quality play last year in Indianapolis and has regressed to backup status in Las Vegas. With coach Pierce already considering Aidan O'Connell at QB, Bowers and Adams owners are in for a carousel ride from hell in 2024. Zamir White being unusable is the biggest nonsurprise of the season. The Silver and Black will leave fantasy managers black and blue by the end of the season.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.54 (7th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 71.5 (9th), RunBlk = 47 (31st), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Gardner Minshew = 70.8 (12th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 40.2 (32nd), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 14.9 pts (32nd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 71.4 (12th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 27.9 pts (12th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 11.6 pts (5th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 52.3 (30th), RunD = 71.9 (5th), PassRsh = 60.2 (24th), Cov = 34.5 (32nd), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - Home vs CLE, at DEN, home vs PIT, at LAR, home vs KC, at CIN, at MIA, home vs DEN, at KC  

Chargers - The Chargers deserve to be in a higher tier. Jim Harbaugh is a fantastic coach who understands successful team building. He has raised both J.K. Dobbins and Quentin Johnston from the dead. The defense looks the best it has in years. But the Chargers, and some other teams in this tier, are far better in real life than in fantasy. With Justin Herbert’s health in constant flux for the rest of the year, the only reliable option in this offense is JK All Day. Herbert, Ladd McConkey, and Dobbins will be a sneaky great trio in 2025.  

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.4 (29th-tied), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 58.1 (25th), RunBlk = 65.9 (13th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Justin Herbert = 53.2 (37th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 62.5 (26th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 16.9 pts (28th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 63.9 pts (22nd), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 18.8 pts (29th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 6.3 pts (24th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 75.7 (5th), RunD = 63.6 (10th), PassRsh = 63.1 (21st), Cov = 85.7 (2nd), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - Home vs KC, at DEN, at ARI, home vs NO, at CLE, home vs TEN, home vs CIN, home vs BAL, at ATL  

Steelers - Like the team before them, the Steelers are fun to watch in RL but nerve-racking for fantasy. Justin Fields may be the ideal QB for this Authur Smith offense, but he limits the upside of George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth. The Agency would much rather have Russell Wilson at QB for this reason, but that ship may have sailed for the team-voted captain if Fields keeps winning. Their elite defense will give their offense plenty of opportunities. But with the pass-catchers being a boom-bust option and Najee & Warren playing well below their capabilities, Pittsburgh will frustrate managers in 2024.  

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.4 (29th-tied), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 68.2 (15th), RunBlk = 70 (11th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Justin Fields = 81 (5th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 58.9 (31st), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 21.9 pts (11th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 69.7 (16th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 15.5 pts (31st), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 7.8 pts (15th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 80.3 (2nd), RunD = 72.1 (4th), PassRsh = 88 (1st), Cov = 72.4 (9th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - At IND, home vs DAL, at LV, home vs NYJ, home vs NYG, at WAS, home vs BAL, at CLE, at CIN   

Colts - The Agency had high hopes for this Steichen-led offense with talented playmakers, an elite offensive line, and a duel-threat mutant at QB. Unfortunately, the ultimate fantasy QB looks like a Frankenstein monstrosity who escaped the lab before he could learn passing fundamentals. No overpriced beer is safe with how often Richardson’s passes sail over the receivers and into the stands. His inaccuracy will not be fixed during the season; these issues can only be fixed during the offseason. No receiver is startable with this offseason and Jonathan Taylor is a risky play with how bad the defense has frequently looked. 

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.48 (17th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 85.8 (1st), RunBlk = 82.3 (1st), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Anthony Richardson = 48.3 (41st), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 79.4 (8th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 16.2 pts (30th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 57 (31st), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 21.3 pts (24th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 4.5 pts (31st-tied), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 65.5 (16th), RunD = 64.7 (9th), PassRsh = 58.3 (26th), Cov = 66.5 (16th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - Home vs PIT, at JAX, at TEN, home vs MIA, at HOU, at MIN, home vs BUF, at NYJ, home vs DET

Jets - With Breece Hall being the only viable fantasy option, the Jets are the definition of a depressed franchise. Hopes of Aaron Rodgers making the most of the opportunities afforded to him by his loaded defense appear misplaced. Allen Lazard, not Garret Wilson, appears to have the best connection with the QB. The Agency fully anticipates the Jets to improve on offense as the season progresses, but with the team being content to keep their signal-caller upright, we expect the offense to continue to run through Hall and Allen at RB and the breakout season for Wilson to remain elusive.    

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.5 (11th-tied), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 66.1 (18th), RunBlk = 66.7 (12th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Aaron Rodgers = 82.8 (3rd), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 81.7 (5th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 22.1 pts (10th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 70.1 (14th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 25.4 pts (16th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 7.4 pts (16th-tied), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 64.7 (19th), RunD = 45.6 (31st), PassRsh = 66.6 (16th), Cov = 79.5 (3rd), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - Home vs DEN, at MIN, home vs BUF, at PIT, at NE, home vs HOU, at ARI, home vs IND, home vs SEA    

Dolphins - Miami finds themselves in football limbo with their QB Tua Tagovailoa lost in the maze once again. Having De’Von Achane average 20 touches per game has been great, but this is a short-term fantasy fling that isn’t built to last and could end in heartbreak at any moment. The best outcome for the team is Tua emerging from the labyrinth to play the rest of the season. For this reason, Tyreek Hill is a hold. But Tua remaining unscathed for the year behind an awful pass-blocking line isn’t realistic. The Dolphins should trade for Bryce Young, who could excel in this McDaniel offense.     

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.49 (13th-tied), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 62.6 (22nd), RunBlk = 76.5 (3rd), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Tua Tagovailoa = 59.9 (27th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 70.2 (20th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 23.5 pts (3rd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 60.7 (25th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 25.4 pts (15th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 11.7 pts (2nd-tied), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 61.2 (24th), RunD = 69.6 (6th), PassRsh = 67.3 (15th), Cov = 48.5 (29th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - Home vs TEN, at NE, at IND, home vs ARI, at BUF, at LAR, home vs LV, home vs NE, at GB  

Bengals - Our prediction for the Bengals to become the next high-flying offense was WAY OFF. Their run game is nonexistent, which is a moot point considering their sieve of a defense. Cincinnati has all the pass-catching power to keep them in a lot of games, but with their one-dimensional build, this team is going to be nowhere near what we had hoped for in 2024.  

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.59 (3rd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 68 (16th), RunBlk = 57.5 (25th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Joe Burrow = 77.2 (8th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 71.4 (19th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 18 pts (21st-tied), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 62.9 (23rd), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 30.7 pts (10th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 13.7 pts (1st), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 63.8 (21st), RunD = 62.6 (11th), PassRsh = 57.3 (28th), Cov = 66.5 (16th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - At CAR, home vs BAL, at NYG, at CLE, home vs PHI, home vs LV, at BAL, at LAC, home vs PIT  

Falcons - Murdered out in their all-black unis, few teams are more intimidating than Atlanta lined up on offense. But despite their embarrassment of riches, the Falcons have played far below fantasy expectations. Every pass from Kirk Cousins looks like a hate-throw; as if he has already accepted that he will be benched by midseason for Michael Penix. Drake London was drafted as a top 12-15 WR, but he is playing more like a 25-30-ranked receiver. The greatest “what-if?” player of his generation remains Kyle Pitts. Bijan Robinson is playing more like the Suffering Servant with only 1 TD in three games than the RB Messiah we had all hoped for. Darnell Mooney is a sneaky cheap buy with his solid connection to Cousins. The Falcons could elevate themselves into the next tier, but as of now, they are one of fantasy’s most depressing teams.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.44 (24th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 56.8 (26th), RunBlk = 71.5 (8th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Kirk Cousins = 61.4 (25th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 75.8 (14th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 18.6 pts (17th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 71.9 (9th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 24.7 pts (17th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 7 pts (19th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 64.4 (20th), RunD = 62 (12th), PassRsh = 48.8 (32nd), Cov = 72.8 (8th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - Home vs NO, home vs TB, at CAR, home vs SEA, at TB, home vs DAL, at NO, at DEN, home vs LAC  

Works Cited

• PFF

• NFL Week 3 Recap - Fantasy Usage Model by Hayden Winks

https://underdognetwork.com/football/analysis/nfl-week-3-recap-fantasy-usage-model-2024

The Dossier

Image created by ATM

WK 2 - Failed States

The Worst Franchises In 2024

You know what kind of plan never fails? No plan. No plan at all. You know why? Because life cannot be planned.

Ki-taek - Parasite

Briefing

Leagues across the globe are gripped with mayhem. Owners have input launch codes to nuke their rosters. Managers everywhere are doing their best Will Levis impersonation at their local Walmarts. The Field Surveillance Department can barely keep up with the flood of reports:

“CMC usurped, Jordan Mason, rising to legitimate power as RB1”

“Believed deceased, Sam Darnold and J.K. Dobbins leading separate revolutions in the North and West”

“The Miami Special Forces on the verge of disbanding after losing leader”

“The Shock Troop Saints have launched a surprise offensive from the South”

And we just received word, “Bryce Young, OUT. Andy Dalton, IN.”

Most concerning is the level of unrest amongst our Field Agents. Like throwing water onto a grease fire, some of their panic has resulted in ill-advised trades. Remember, Agency Protocol dictates:

Adhering to the Trade Schedule

• Weeks 1-2 - Be willing to trade a 3rd

• Weeks 3-4 - Be willing to trade 2x 3rds

• Weeks 5-8 - Be willing to trade a 2nd

• Weeks 9-12 - Be willing to trade 2x 2nds (or 1x early 2nd)

• Weeks 13-16 - Be willing to trade a 1st

Trading for a player worth a 2nd or more early in the season is a recipe for disaster. With limited resources, field agents cannot afford to take unnecessary risks due to the prevalence of injuries. The Agency broke the Preseason protocol of trading strictly for picks and instead traded for a player (De’Von Achane for Michael Pittman). This breach in security is luckily more embarrassing than damaging, but the Trade Series Field Manuals released earlier this year should have been consulted nonetheless. The best Operators will stay patient and make moves at the last possible moment

Anticipate Bounce Backs 

• Amon-Ra St. Brown - 11/19 for 119 yds (Wk 1 - 3/6 for 13 yds)

• Marvin Harrison Jr - 4/8 for 130 yds, 2 TDs (Wk 1 - 1/3 for 4 yds)

• Davante Adams - 9/12 for 110 yds, 1 TD (Wk 1 - 5/6 for 59 yds)

• DK Metcalf - 10/14 for 129 yds, 1 TD (Wk 1 - 3/4 for 29 yds)

• Zay Flowers - 7/11 for 91 yds, 1 TD (Wk 1 - 6/10 for 37 yds)

• Davante Adams - 9/12 for 110 yds, 1 TD (Wk 1 - 5/6 for 59 yds)

• JSN - 12/16 for 117 yds (Wk 1 - 2/2 for 19 yds)

• Derrick Henry - 18 for 84 yds, 1 TD (Wk 1 - 13 for 46 yds, 1 TD)

• Kyler Murray - 17/21 for 266 yds, 3 TDs (59 yds rushing) (Wk 1 - 162 passing yds, 1 TD (57 yds rushing))

• Joe Burrow - 23/36 for 258 yds, 2 TDs (Wk 1 - 164 passing yds (15 yds rushing))

• Trey McBride - 6/6 for 67 yds (Wk 1 - 5/9 for 30 yds)

An abundance of players cost managers week 1, but none of them cost a championship. More important than a player’s performance is an assessment of their team environment (neutral pass rate, QB play, OLine rating, defense, etc.). This is the purpose of the Team SITREPs preceding the player Bona Fides and Bulletins. Certain situations are more worrisome (Tua’s concussions) in terms of how they will affect other assets, making it all the more critical to consider various scenarios and possible outcomes. In these situations, The Agency advises: 

• Steadfast Patience - Agents plan, adapt, and regroup when a situation doesn’t go their way. Do not force the issue - better to look forward to the next opportunity than try to fix the current one. There will always be more opportunities. 

• Don’t Blow Your Cover - Stop seeking trades or putting players on the block in the wake of any negative news. If you have to convince your trade partner of something you wouldn’t do personally, you’re operating out of desperation. Your leaguemates will smell the blood in the water and they will come to dismantle your team of its best assets. 

SITREP - Failed States

In the most extreme and final phase of failure, the following organizations can no longer protect their players from the doom they face every Sunday, and they have lost all respect from their citizen fans. In the world of fantasy, players on these teams should be avoided like the plague, albeit a few elite players who can withstand the calamity of these franchises. 

Panthers - Much will be said of Bryce Young’s horrific QB play, but people who know football will discern he has been nothing more than a puppet leader of a horrifically run franchise. Their defense can't generate pressure, can't cover, & is devoid of talent. This side of the ball will be the Achilles heel of the team if they can't stop opposing teams & if the Panthers are down multiple scores early on. This forces the offense to be in catch-up mode early on.

Bryce looks shell-shocked trying to operate Canales’ offense. Completely unsettled, he tends to overthrow his receivers, often resulting in picks. I've never seen an offense with so many beta's; absolutely no explosive playmakers. There will be no chance of a run game if the team continues to be down by 3 TDs heading into halftime.

Instead of looking forward to the latter half of the season, the Panthers should be looking forward to next season.

**UPDATE** A new hero has risen to end the brutal tenure of Bryce Young. Despite Bryce being one of our top-rated QBs out of college, there is only so much torture a human can withstand, and the most merciful thing for Bryce is to be benched by Canales. Young still has a future somewhere else. As someone who lost their soul long ago in Cincinnati, Dalton can be thrown out to the wolves without sympathy or a second thought. The difference at QB will be night and day with the ghost mercenary who has nothing to lose. Is he good enough to elevate this team out of the Failed State tier? No, he's not God. Will he keep it close against a stretch of subpar teams and have some QB1 performances? Absolutely! Diontae, Chuba, and the rest of the Panthers' playmakers are no longer unstartable.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.44 (22nd in NFL), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 76.7 (5th), RunBlk = 62.5 (21st), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Bryce Young = 31.8 (38th, Dead Last), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 65 (24th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 12.2 pts (31st), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 53.7 (32nd), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 24.3 pts (17th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 4.1 pts (32nd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 47.6 (32nd), RunD = 51.3 (26th), PassRsh = 49.9 (32nd), Cov = 49.9 (28th), (Courtesy PFF) 

Upcoming Schedule - At LV, home vs CIN, at CHI, home vs ATL, at WAS, at DEN, home vs NO, home vs NYG, home vs KC  

Giants - The PFF grade doesn’t match what we saw from the Giants' offensive line. The line plays like they hate their QB, inviting every pass-rusher to a free lane to smash their signal caller. When he's not getting killed, Daniel Jones throws like he's cross-eyed, routinely missing WRs by wide margins. Malik Nabers is the lone bright spot of this team, but we fear that his talent isn't enough to overcome the ineptitude of this offense. The Giants' 4th-highest WR Fantasy Usage speaks to how exceptional Malik is as a talent. Brian Burns left a Hellhole in Carolina only to wind up in Purgatory in New York.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.42 (25th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 76.3 (5th), RunBlk = 49.6 (30th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Daniel Jones = 61.1 (21st), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 69.5 (18th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 14.9 pts (29th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 62.3 (22nd), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 35.4 pts (4th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 6.3 pts (18th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 61.4 (19th), RunD = 52.1 (25th), PassRsh = 66.2 (14th), Cov = 62.8 (20th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - At CLE, home vs DAL, at SEA, home vs CIN, home vs PHI, at PIT, home vs WAS, at CAR, home vs TB  

Commanders - Jayden Daniels’ is in a very tough spot: he has an awful offensive line and his receivers are usually covered. This leads to him tucking and running on most plays, which often results in big chunk plays for the talented rushing QB. The Commanders are completely devoted to their two-headed rushing attack with Brian Robinson and Daniels as the entirety of their offense. Their commitment to the run-game is impressive considering how many points they can be down thanks to their infamous defense. We would like to recommend the Medal of Honor for the bravery and valor Terry McLaurin has demonstrated for so many years in one of the most hostile environments in all of sports.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.49 (13th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 63.5 (21st), RunBlk = 55.8 (27th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Daniel Jones = 47.7 (32nd), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 76.6 (8th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 22.6 pts (7th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 65.7 (16th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 18.9 pts (27th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 6 pts (19th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 52.5 (31st), RunD = 65 (11th), PassRsh = 54.9 (29th), Cov = 44 (32nd), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - At CIN, at ARI, home vs CLE, at BAL, home vs CAR, home vs CHI, at NYG, home vs PIT, at PHI  

Broncos - Every drop back to pass looks like an impending car wreck with how often their receivers are blown up on slant routes. Unfortunately, it appears short passes and dump-offs are the only things Bo Nix can handle at this point. Anything further than 20 yards down the field would likely result in Bo Nix losing the interception battle to Hellmann’s Brains of the Turnover Titans. The Broncos line ranks dead last in run blocking, ruining any chance of a viable RB to operate outside of pass-catching opportunities. With Audric Estime on IR, there aren't any players on the Broncos that strike fear into opposing defenses.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.46 (19th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 62.1 (22nd), RunBlk = 42 (32nd), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Bo Nix = 41.6 (37th, last if you don’t count Bryce Young), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 56.3 (31st), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 17.3 pts (25th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 56 (29th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 29.4 pts (10th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 8.2 pts (12th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 54.4 (29th), RunD = 52.7 (23rd), PassRsh = 64.5 (18th), Cov = 55.3 (27th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - At TB, at NYJ, home vs LV, home vs LAC, at NO, home vs CAR, at BAL, at KC, home vs ATL  

Jaguars - The Jaguars have the QB & head coach to compete for a playoff spot. The wide gap between their expectations and on-field product makes them the most disappointing team of this tier. The offensive line makes Trevor Lawrence worse than he is. Etienne’s performance is concerning compared to his #3 RB level of play in 2023. With Evan Engram out with a hamstring injury and Christian Kirk taking notes from ETN, the lone bright spot of this offense is Brian Thomas Jr. He is in a race to be one of the best rookies in 2024. The reign of Trevor Targaryen does not look promising in 2024.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.24 (32nd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 59.4 (25th), RunBlk = 51.3 (29th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Trevor Lawrence = 69.4 (12th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 80.6 (4th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 19.8 pts (15th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 63.1 (21st), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 20.2 pts (24th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 8.3 pts (11th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 59.2 (21st), RunD = 54.3 (22nd), PassRsh = 66.1 (15th), Cov = 58.9 (22nd), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - At BUF, at HOU, home vs IND, at CHI, home vs NE, home vs GB, at PHI, home vs MIN, at DET   

Titans - Is the Titan's defense elite? Not according to PFF. It appears that this is a trick of the mind, mainly due to their herculean efforts to cover up the treachery perpetrated by their saboteur QB, who has achieved new heights of destruction never thought possible. Despite a subpar offensive line and an average cast of playmakers, Levis’s policy of turnovers is unconscionable and will not stand for much longer. Pick up Mason Rudolph now for free in Dynasty Best Ball leagues.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.47 (17th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 57.6 (26th), RunBlk = 64 (17th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Will Levis = 42.1 (36th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 74.2 (13th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 20.6 pts (12th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 60.1 (26th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 20.8 pts (22nd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 5.4 pts (24th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 54.1 (30th), RunD = 39.8 (31st), PassRsh = 60.2 (25th), Cov = 62.8 (20th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - home vs GB, at MIA, home vs IND, at BUF, at DET, home vs NE, at LAC, home vs MIN, at HOU  

Browns - With plenty of offensive talent and an elite defense, the Browns have the best overall roster in this tier. This team lives and dies (mainly dies) off of the erratic play of their QB, Deshaun Watson. Contributing to the lethargy of this offense is the lack of health of key linemen. Watson has used his legs to compensate and looked to newcomer Jerry Judy in critical situations, but this isn't enough. The Browns can beat most teams when playing at their best, but we have little confidence Watson will consistently put his best foot forward.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.62 (2nd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 56.3 (27th), RunBlk = 67.2 (13th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Deshaun Watson = 68.6 (14th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 61.5 (26th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 19 pts (19th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 55.2 (30th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 32.7 pts (5th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 5.8 pts (20th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 73.4 (8th), RunD = 60.7 (13th), PassRsh = 77.7 (3rd), Cov = 73.7 (9th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - Home vs NYG, at LV, at WAS, at PHI, home vs CIN, home vs BAL, home vs LAC, at NO, home vs PIT

Works Cited

• PFF

• NFL Week 2 Recap - Fantasy Usage Model by Hayden Winks

https://underdognetwork.com/football/analysis/nfl-week-2-recap-fantasy-usage-model-2024

The Dossier

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