The Rookie Draft

Part IV - Rookie Wisdom

Will this be the year I draft the next Jayden Daniels, or will I continue to struggle in mediocrity? No other event quite compares to the buildup and stakes of the Rookie Draft. Many of my greatest fantasy football lessons have been tested and refined in the crucible of the rookie process. In the final installment of the Attacking The Draft series, this article will cover the wisdom and strategy for the Rookie Draft.  Thank you to Mike Liu, Peter Howard, Jax Falcone, Jakob Sanderson, Scott Conner, Adam McFerran, Mike Chrystal, and many others for their knowledge and for making this article possible.

Key Stats To Remember

Since 2013, on average, 2 QBs, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, & 2 TEs selected in the first 3 rounds of the NFL Draft have gone on to have at least 1 Top-12 fantasy season (during their career) per rookie class. In 2024, we had 2 QBs, 2 WRs, and 1 TE already accomplish this feat in their first season. We will likely have more players from the 2024 class break into the Top-12 in the coming seasons.

In 2023, 17 rookies broke into the top 156 best WoRP players (10.9%).

In 2024, 14 rookies made the top 156 WoRP players (9%). 

(Lineup, SF, Start 10, 1 Pt TEP)

First Round Picks

Picks are extremely valuable. Either you want to field the best team in the league, OR you want to have the most picks! If you do not have the best team, aim to have three to four 1st round picks to control the draft. When you have this many first-rounders, other managers will come to you first for trades. This gives you the flexibility to trade away a pick for more future picks, trade away a pick for a veteran player, or use it to draft a rookie. If you are wondering, how do I get my hands on so many 1sts? It begins with trading back in the Startup, and actively tanking the first two to three seasons of your dynasty league.

Hogging All The Picks

It can become difficult to trade if you control eight to nine first-round rookie picks in a class. What often transpires is that the other managers with no teeth in the Rookie Draft have no future picks to offer you in a package, and their veteran players are either too expensive or too old to trade for. It gives you trade flexibility if you allow other people at the table with picks AND players they can trade. Having five to six firsts in one class is the best spot for a rebuilding team. If you love rookies to the point that you don’t care about hit rates, value loss, or trading, you can have as many First-Round picks as you want. 

Do not become enamored with trying to build a super team during a rebuild, where you are flush with draft picks and go on a buying spree for older assets. The worst thing you can do is make a godfather deal and sink multiple valuable assets into one elite player, especially a WR (position isn’t scarce).

Contenders

If you're a contender with late picks in the rookie draft and doubt the prospects available to you, I would not recommend trading for veterans as your first option. Instead, during or right before the rookie draft, trade those picks away for a larger package of future picks. It’s a lot harder to know which veterans to trade for during the off-season than after the season starts, so make it easier on yourself and opt for future picks. 

If you are a contender with draft picks and there's only one other contender with picks as well, trade away some of your veterans for their picks and corner the market as the only contender with picks. Tanking teams will not be able to force you into a bidding war if you are the only manager able to offer them picks for their players. 

One Season Away From Contention

If you are one season away from competing (and have the depth), aim to have at least two 1sts going into your upcoming rookie draft and two 1sts for next season. Having multiple firsts to spend on young talent and trade away can be the deciding factor when making a championship run. 

Popularity Contest

If you are unsure which player to select, choose the player the community likes more. Managers pay extra for these players. A good player in a difficult situation can be analytically superior, but they will be harder to trade if the community doesn't love them.

Timing

Do not flip your picks in the upcoming draft too early. After the NFL Draft is completed, you will have a better idea of the pick and its value. 

If you ever trade away a pick for a player, you must be content with the investment in the player for that year and the following year. Do not trade away valuable picks for players with limited liquidity or whose days are numbered in the NFL.

Liquidity vs. Construction

With rookie picks being highly liquid (can trade them easily) and value-insulated, it can be tempting to go overboard with acquiring as much draft capital as possible. Trading away too much reliable veteran production for picks spent on rookies can be risky (considering their hit rate). While pursuing youth, these managers can easily wind up with a team half the roster size of their league-mates and be years from competing. The best rosters boast the best players and depth in their league. 

If your team is multiple years away from competing, remember that RBs have the shortest shelf life in the league, followed by WRs and TEs. Be willing to trade away any skill-position player at a slight discount if it yields multiple pieces in compensation and more shots to turn your fortunes around.  

How to Utilize Picks

Target the worst and most desperate managers in your league by offering them your later picks for their future picks. Bet that their future pick will be better than your current late pick. Convert two 2nd-round picks into one 1st-round pick next year. Trade back from a mid-1st to a late-1st plus a 2nd. For contending teams, these future picks will act as an emergency savings in case you need to find a replacement for a mid-season injury.  

If you can’t manage to trade your draft picks for future ones, then use them to select rookies. For the prospects that hit, the rookie draft will be their cheapest cost of acquisition. 

Do not trade away high draft capital for a veteran unless you love that player to death.

If you are going to make a trade, make sure to consult Startup ADP. It is critical to receive the proper compensation based on startup value!

Hierarchy of Positions

Generational Talents

Prospects with historic analytics and play at a level that you have never seen before are the highest priority, regardless of the position they play.

Quarterback

The young elite QB is the most valuable position in SuperFlex dynasty leagues. A highly regarded prospect will maintain their value for a full year, even if they fall short of expectations during their rookie campaign. Their value insulation is the best of all positions because of their production ceiling and the scarcity of the position. Only in the event of a historically bad season will a rookie QB lose significant dynasty value.

Wide Receiver

In 2024, running backs were king because of their production. But for better or worse, wide receivers are still being selected higher in dynasty startups. This is mainly due to their perceived longevity and spike weeks in production. For years, the NFL has been a passing league, elevating the WR position to new heights. With so little consistency at the position, the elite wide receivers are second only to the elite QBs. 

Running Back

With a historic 2024 rushing season and a generational class in 2025, the NFL and fantasy could be in the midst of an RB renaissance.  The elite rushers are consistent and produce at a high level well into their second and sometimes third contract. The best RBs have versatility as pass-catching weapons and the toughness to punch in TDs on the goal line. Best of all, RBs have the highest likelihood of a Breakout year (Top 12-24 RB) during their rookie season of all positions and have a much higher hit rate compared to QBs and WRs. 

Tight End

In Tight End Premium leagues with 0.75-1 point premiums in scoring, or Start 2 TEs Leagues, prospects can be confidently drafted if they boast elite athleticism and high NFL Draft capital. Tight Ends own the highest hit rate in the first and second rounds of rookie drafts amongst all positions. But unless all of these conditions can be met, it's preferable to prioritize the other positions in the first and second rounds and target TEs in the later parts of your draft.   

Very Important Caveat

The hierarchy can change based on the most talented group of an incoming rookie class. Always prioritize the strength of a class. The NFL is brutal, where only the best survive in the league and dynasty. If you draft a quarterback or wide receiver that doesn’t pan out, it doesn’t matter how important their position is if their value eventually goes to zero. Draft the very best, regardless of their position.

Rookie Team Situations

A lot can go wrong with rookies. No matter how talented a player is, their teammates, coaches, and organization dictate A LOT of how productive they will be.

QB 

A quarterback is affected by their environment more than any other position. This is especially true of Pocket-Passers, who need a strong offensive line for protection and an arsenal of playmakers to distribute the ball. For this reason, the Konami-Code QB that can run and pass is the most valuable player in dynasty. The mental acumen required to compete in the NFL is immense, and the jump in competition level from college is massive. Stay away from prospects that go to dysfunctional situations.

RB

Rookie RBs eviscerate the value of their veteran teammates if they are more talented. However, if those vets endear themselves to the coaches with certain skills the younger backs don't have, the seasoned player will stick around and eat into the opportunities. 

WR

The WR position differs from RBs in that a veteran can coexist with a talented rookie without too much effect on production. With the high passing volume in the NFL, and teams operating with multiple WR sets on most plays, multiple WRs can eat on an offense. Don’t waste picks on WRs ranked outside the top 8-10.

TE

Outside of the TEs taken in the First Round of the NFL Draft, it is unlikely for a rookie TE to start and produce in year 1. Drafting a TE ranked outside of the top 2 is a wait-and-see game.

The Dossier

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Auction Drafts

Part III - Texas Draft’em

You know what I like about restaurants? You can learn a lot, watching things eat.

Costello - The Departed

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The American Dream

There’s nothing more American than an Auction Draft. In an auction, you can draft whoever you want and construct however you want. You want your favorite player? Great, you can have him. You don’t feel like drafting for a while? Fuck it, go get sauced at the pub. That’s the problem with Snake Drafts. In a traditional draft, everything is given to you in an orderly fashion. In an Auction, no one gives it to you. You have to take it. This style of drafting rewards preparation, experience, and strategy in a way Snake Drafts never come close to. Similar to poker, the main focus of the Auction is reading and manipulating your opponent, making it the World Series of Drafting. The only downside is managing a budget, which can be problematic for someone who never looks at price tags. But don’t worry, you don’t need an Accounting degree from Cambridge to draft a team. By the end of this article, you’ll understand the Cardinal Rules of drafting and hopefully wake up to see what you’ve been missing with Auctions.

The First Cardinal Rule

The first cardinal rule of auction drafts is preparation. Having your rankings, plans for roster construction, and budgets ahead of time will inform you if the player up for bid is worth chasing or folding on. It begins with setting a budget. 

How To Set A Budget

Set your budget based on WoRP. With WoRP, you’ll know the hierarchy of different positions to target. With this in mind, set a budget of 23-21% for the highest tier of players at the most valuable position, 19-17% for the top players at the 2nd most valuable position, 16-14% for the best tier at the 3rd best position, and 13-11% for the best players at the least consequential position. From there, set a lower budget for the subsequent tiers at each position.

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I hate to break it to ya, but you can’t afford multiple Tier 1 players. Don’t be a freakin’ idiot and spend 23% for Lamar Jackson, 19% for Ja’Marr Chase, and have 42% of your funds allocated to only two players. The rest of your roster will be trash.

The First Chip To Fall

After you set your tiers and budgets, the most important thing to pay attention to is the Market Defining Players. Once a player like Josh Allen, Justin Jefferson, Bijan Robinson, Brock Bowers, or any of the other elite players in their tiers is claimed, their price has set the market. Once this happens, you have to decide if you’re comfortable with the market price, or if you would rather wait to operate at a possible cheaper price in a lower tier. 

Going Over Budget

If the price exceeds your Max Bid allocation, Stay Away! Any time you decide to bid on a player that is ABOVE your budget, you HAVE to lower your budget for another position accordingly. So if you bid 3% more than what you had budgeted at QB to land Jayden Daniels, you have to subtract 3% from another position. Any time you go over budget, you are sacrificing one tier of players for every 2-3% you go over budget.

The inverse is true as well. Claiming a player at a cheaper price gives you the flexibility to outbid other managers on critical players or claim multiple players in higher tiers. 

The Second Cardinal Rule

The second cardinal rule is tracking the other managers. With most of your hard work completed before the auction begins, you are freed up to focus on managing your opponents.

Reading Your Opponents

You can read another manager’s cards with their bids, how much funds they have left, the player pool available, and what they have left to fill on their roster. It’s for this reason I advocate for slow auctions. You only have time to focus on sticking to your budget in fast auctions. Anticipating the other managers’ next move and disrupting their plans is why Auction is 10 times more satisfying than a standard draft.

The Third Cardinal Rule

The overall goal of an auction draft is to deplete your opponent's funds on players that you DON’T want so that you can outspend the other managers on the players you DO want. That is why the third cardinal rule, and the most fun, is sabotage. 

The First Moves

To get the ball rolling, the elite players are often the first ones up for bid for two reasons: A) They define the market price for their position. B) They also exhaust the most significant chunk of funds from managers. The less money a manager has, the less influence and power they have on the draft. If you love Puka Nacua and BTJ, nominate players like Chase, Jefferson, Lamb, ARSB, and Nabers first.  This forces the hands of the other managers to deplete large sums of auction dollars for players you care less about. 

The Biggest Tell

If a manager is constantly the highest bidder on a player, chances are they want that player. Armed with this assumption, it’s critical not to allow other managers to get away with winning a key player below market price. This is known as a “steal.” If Josh Allen is up for bid, and he’s going for less than a previous won bid of Lamar Jackson, it's pivotal that you drive up the price to be level with Lamar’s if you're confident the other manager will continue to call your bid. If they call your bluff, your consolation is Josh Allen at market price. The best advantage is knowing the other manager LOVES the player up for bid and depleting their piggy bank further by pushing them past their comfort zone. 

The Fourth Cardinal Rule

My fourth cardinal rule is to remain in the top two of funds throughout the draft. With this spending power, you can be involved and influence the entire Auction. If you’re active throughout the draft and bid on most players, including players you don’t want, other managers will have difficulty reading your intentions. To help mask your plans, I recommend waiting until the initial flurry of bids on a particular player dies down before casting your first bid. Force it to become a 2-3 horse race between you and the other manager(s), driving the price up to the market for that tier and perhaps even past it if you’re bold. 

With spending power, you can force the hands of others, land the players you want, and achieve the critical depth for your roster. Speaking from experience, you do not want to be the team with 3 studs and 27 duds.

The Fifth Cardinal Rule

The final cardinal rule is patience. In the typical auction draft, four to six of the top players at each position go off the board, along with 75% of the funds from half of the managers. With so many managers now having to watch the Auction from the sideline, there’s less competition for the players still left. With less competition, there’s a higher likelihood for “steals” the longer a draft goes on. There’s nothing more gut-wrenching than seeing a top player sneak their way to the end of the auction and be won by another manager at a fraction of the market cost. 

But keep in mind, the longer a draft goes on, the more scarce certain positions become. This is especially important in SuperFlex leagues. You don’t want to be the manager who was too stingy to bid on any Tier 1 or 2 QB, and instead you pay Tier 1 prices for a Tier 4 or 5 QB out of desperation before the position dried up. You can avoid this by staying involved in as many bids throughout the draft. It’s better to be stuck with a higher tier player at market price that you don’t love than stuck with a bottom tiered player you hate. Auctions are won by being frugal and selective, not cheap and hesitant.

No More Pencils, No More Books

In life, there are always the haves and the have-nots. The have-nots have been told “draft him,” “sell him,” “buy this,” or “subscribe to that.” If you go for that sort of thing, I don't know what to do for you. The haves make their own way. No one gives it to you. You have to take it. Non Serviam. When you decide to be something, you can be it. That's what they don't tell you. You don’t have to be a product of your environment. Make your environment a product of you.

The Dossier

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The Trade Chart

Part II - Take It or Leave It

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The Startup Draft sets the tone for the league. From the onset, those with a champion mindset want to pursue every advantage they can. Trading during the Startup is one way contenders separate themselves from the rest of the league.  Trading up at a value for a cornerstone player or trading back to accumulate assets are great paths toward imposing your will on the league. All juggernaut teams are conceived during the Startup Draft. This article will explain how you can navigate through the frenzy of the draft and position your team for future success.

Things to Remember 

The best trades are often the ones you don't make - There are so many trades we wish we could take back, and there are many other deals we look back on that we're grateful never came to fruition. Unless you love the trade, don't go through with it.

Prep - To get the most out of this article, it is essential to do some prep beforehand. A great place to start is with Part I of this series, Snake Draft Checklist. But at the very least, it is pivotal that you map out your favorite and least favorite rounds of the draft based on consensus ADP. There is no point to a Trade Back Chart if you don't know what rounds you want to capitalize on and which you want to avoid.

Let It Be Known - Right before the draft kicks off, declare in the chat, “If anyone wants to trade during the draft, come to me first!” You want to communicate that you’re open to trading and have come prepared to make the deal as painless as possible. 

KEYNOTE—The following charts are a starting place for your trading considerations. You want to use these as a framework based on the rounds you’re targeting to avoid being exploited through improper compensation.

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Image created by T-Rock

KEYNOTE—About the Startup Values Chart, it is important to remember that these values are an approximation. When you trade a pick away, you are also trading away the “player” that could have been selected at that spot (e.g., if you trade away the 1.01, you are trading away Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, or Jayden Daniels). So make sure that your compensation for the pick you are trading away is equal to the value of that player.

When Trading…

• The first four rounds are the most important of the Startup Draft. If you trade in these rounds, be sure to have at least two rounds of selections at your disposal before you decide to trade away another pick (e.g., if you trade away your 1st, do not trade away your 2nd or 3rd).  

• Do not trade away any picks in consecutive rounds through rounds 5-8 (e.g., if you trade away your 5th, do not trade away your 6th).

• After round 8, feel free to trade in consecutive rounds (e.g., if you trade away your 9th, you may also trade away your 10th). 

• Do not ever trade back more than 2 consecutive rounds (e.g., if you trade away your 11th, DO NOT trade away your 12th and 13th as well).

• Do not trade away more picks than what you receive back in compensation (i.e., do not send away 3 picks to get only 2 picks back).

• Pay attention to what part of the round the picks are located (i.e., is their selection in the beginning with slots 1-4, the middle with 5-8, or at the end with 9-12).

• If the pick you are sending away is early (slots 1-4), then ask if the last pick in your compensation package can be moved up (e.g., if you trade away the 1.01, instead of asking for their 2nd, 4th, and 8th in return, ask for their 2nd, 4th, and 7th as compensation).

The Dossier

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Snake Draft Checklist

Part I - Unleashing Hell

Brothers, what we do in life... echoes in eternity.

Maximus - Gladiator

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Before The Draft

Portfolios

Diversification is Key when you Play in Multiple Leagues

• Keep track of your players’ exposure rate across all leagues.

• Would not recommend rostering a player worth a 2nd+ on more than 40% of your leagues in case of possible injury.

Create a List of your Favorite Players

• List the top players in the draft in tiers ranging from your Favorite to Least Favorite.

• Track the number of shares you have of each player. Aim to acquire more of your favorite players and avoid your least favorite. 

Resources

Create your Rankings for 13-15 Rounds

• Rank your players within tiers to aid with possible trade-back scenarios.

• Do not go nuts putting players in tiers that differ widely from consensus.

• This may become an issue during a trade where the compensation you seek doesn’t align with your trade partner’s value of the player.

• Create a roadmap, knowing ahead of time:

• Each tier's location on the Draft Board 

• Where the best rounds are 

• Where the worst rounds are 

• Where the gaps are at each position

Have the Consensus ADP Rankings Open

• Most people draft based on consensus ADP.

• Have it open to anticipate your league mates’ moves.

Consult Roster Construction and WoRP

• Create a checklist based on your league’s recommended Roster Construction

• Prioritize the positions with the highest WoRP advantage in your league

In The Draft

ADP

Respect the ADP Market

• Don’t be too high or too low on players.

• Do not select a player more than a few spots ahead or behind ADP in the First Round

• This ADP gap will increase as the draft progresses - By the Fourth Round, you may be willing to take someone a whole round earlier or later than ADP recommends.

Pick A Direction

After Round 4, Decide if your Team is Primed to Compete in Year 1 or Later

• Choose the path of least resistance

• If more than half of your league is constructed to Win-Now, prioritize acquiring younger assets with upside and trading back to amass draft capital (or vice versa).

Draft a Healthy Mixture of Players

• Drafting all rookies is a risky venture considering their hit rates.

• Drafting all older players for the sake of winning now is also very risky if they underperform or get hurt.

• The best strategy is to draft a mix of players with high upside and/or a track record of high production.

Tie-Breakers

Consider Both Player’s Market Sentiment

• Who will be easier to trade? 

• You take on a lot of risk if you are higher on a player no one else is.

• You may not be able to trade them away if the player underperforms.

Do Not Buy Into Players Whose Value Has Increased Based Upon Hype

• Do not draft players at their peak ADP.

• It’s better to wait and see if the player can be acquired for cheaper later on than pay a premium.

Players Who Fall

• These players can be a massive value or a falling knife you want to avoid.

• It is more difficult to trade away players your leaguemates skip over in the draft.

Diversification

• If you are debating between two players in the same tier, draft the player you have lower exposure to.

• Do not draft players in a lower tier for the sake of your portfolio.

Do Not Chase After Rookies

• Rookie Hype can cloud your judgment to the point you overextend your resources to acquire more shares of them.

• About 3/4 of all rookies will lose value after their first year; acquire them in year 2. 

Risky Players

• Avoid players on a downward trajectory following a disappointing season.

• Avoid players close to the end or past their peak years of production.

Keep in mind that your drafted team isn’t your FINAL team. Your roster could look significantly different by the end of the season if you’re active in free agency and trading for players. 

But at the end of the day, this is your team and the one you’re taking into battle. So draft the players you’re willing to get in a bunker with and Unleash Hell! 

The Dossier

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