Week 8 Dossier

At The Edge Of The Unknown

Assignment

In our line of work, missions are not accomplished through luck. Though there are a multitude of variables that cannot be accounted for and circumstances that are impossible to foresee, victory comes to those who have prepared for it. Part of this planning includes an honest assessment of your chances. “What is your team’s record, where is your team in the standings, and how does it stack up with other teams in terms of points scored?” are all necessary in order to establish a baseline. But beyond these preliminary questions is an inventory of your arsenal: “Do you have a strong QB duo and a serviceable backup in your superflex league?” “Can your WR corp keep up with the best in your league?” “Do your RBs have any consistency or upside?” “Is your TE serviceable?” “How many injuries can you sustain to each position before you are out of the race?” And lastly “Do you have assets that can be liquidated to help strengthen your position?” At this Agency, we train our agents to work toward outcomes that can be all but assured. This involves not only overwhelming your competition with your resources but perhaps the most important factor is timing. 

Injuries are a critical aspect of timing because depending on the position, your urgency to act on the injury should be directly correlated to how finite the position is and if your competition has better means of acquiring the asset before you do. So for example, if there is a critical injury to a manager’s QB room, and there is only one difference-making QB available for trade from a rebuilding team, that rebuilder’s QB has become a high-priority asset. But if the cost of that high-priority QB is too prohibitive because no contender has the means to acquire the asset, then it becomes a lower-priority target. Consider these scenarios if there is any room for your competition to gain a significant advantage over you. If your arsenal is lacking and there are little to no opportunities for improvement, then it is important to consider pivoting toward rebuilding. In Dynasty, there is always the option to retreat and gather resources until the circumstances are favorable - do not blow your cover or get burned by chasing something that was never there.

Usage Activity

A player’s usage can prove valuable in determining our season-long plans and moves. Here are some points of interest worth considering:

Buccaneers vs. Bills - Despite their relatively solid usage and snap counts, Chris Godwin and Rachaad White each only have 1 TD so far this season, and can not be trusted as anything more than floor FLEX options on one of the worst Red Zone teams in the league (31st). 
The 65% snap share that Khalil Shakir received in week 8 is the highest snap count any slot WR has received for the Bills this season. Shakir turned this opportunity into 6 catches for 92 receiving yards. It remains to be seen if Shakir can cement this usage into future opportunities. 

Texans vs. Panthers - Chuba Hubbard has dominated the Panthers backfield over the last two contests - Wk 6: 19 carries on a 77% snap share, (Wk 7: bye week), Wk 8: 15 carries on a 67% snap share. Miles Sanders - Wk 6: 7 carries on a 46% snap share, Wk 8: 2 carries on a 18% snap share. Though Miles Sanders is battling through a shoulder injury, he may not be able to regain the lead back position from Hubbard once healthier. But perhaps the more important question is “Does it matter?” Chuba may be worth considering, but at cost, the best value and the only Panther worth rostering for contenders remains Adam Thielen.
Returning from injury after their bye week, Tank Dell led all Texans WRs in snap share with 78%. Unfortunately, C.J. Stroud struggled in this contest with only 140 yards total passing.

Rams vs. Cowboys - Through Tony Pollard’s first 7 games in 2022, he amassed 375 yards on 67 carries (2 TDs) and 105 yards receiving on 11 catches from 18 targets. In 2023, Pollard has 423 yards rushing on 108 carries (2 TDs) and 178 yards receiving on 26 catches from 30 targets through 7 contests. Even though Pollard isn’t producing at the same efficiency as he was last year with Ezekiel Elliot out of the picture, he is luckily still receiving usage that will hopefully bear fruit soon.
The severity of Matthew Stafford’s injury will have widespread implications on a number of key players for this Rams’ offense. Hold your position on these players until more information can be gathered.

Vikings vs. Packers - Unlike the Rams situation, the implication for Vikings players is drastically clear: turn and burn em. Minnesota will explore the options available on the quarterback market, but unless the legendary Case Keenum can be wrestled away from the Houston Texans’ bench, we do not foresee another Minneapolis Miracle saving the Vikings’ season.
The Packers' offense is far from ideal, ranking in the bottom half of the league in most statistical categories. Their ensemble is chock-full of talented skill players, and yet it is difficult to start any of them in a lineup league. Until the run game improves and the receivers become acclimated with the offense, there will be too much on Jordan Love’s shoulders to handle.

Patriots vs. Dolphins - There wasn’t a wider discrepancy of offensive talent in week 8 than what was on display during this matchup. As pathetic as it may sound, Kendrick Bourne was the Patriot’s most consistent player on offense that was producing throughout the season, and now he is lost. Hoping Demario Douglas will step up to fill Bourne’s void is a lot to ask of the rookie. 
Buy De’Von Achane now while he is injured and can be acquired for a single 1st-round pick.

Chiefs vs. Broncos -  In the seven years Patrick Mahomes has been in the NFL and the six years he has held the office of Chiefs’ starting quarterback, he has never played as poorly as he did Sunday versus the Broncos - 24/38 for 241 yards, 2 INTs, & 1 Fumble Lost. We are working behind the scenes in sending Kansas City profiles on every WR not currently playing for the Chiefs (including active duty, retired, XFL, Canadian, alive, etc.) in hopes they will bolster their receiver group ahead of the trade deadline.
Russell Wilson managed to throw 3 TDs on only 12 passes against the Chiefs. Javonte Williams’ 27 carries for 85 yards rushing and 13 receiving yards plus 1 TD (63% snap share) was his best fantasy performance since week 14 in 2021 versus the Lions.

QB Bona Fides

The Quarterback position remains the agency’s highest priority target in SF. Make no mistake, the war will be won or lost depending on this position in the coming weeks. The following QB credentials (weeks 1-7 data) have been heavily vetted by our intelligence officers and are currently in the hands of our top strategists. The agency will release a QB Bulletin a week from today based on these bona fides. Until then, cultivate trade talks with managers and position yourselves to execute once given the green light. This data sample does not include the Tennessee QBs (hurt/bad/small sample), the Arizona QBs (waiting for Kyler Murray), Zach Wilson (bad), or Kirk Cousins (hurt).

Attempts/G - Ideal stat to consider for leagues that award volume. Joe Burrow is #1 in this category at (38.67 att/g). Patrick Mahomes is #2 (38 att/g). Jared Goff, Sam Howell, and Matthew Stafford are all tied for #3 (36.57 att/g)  

Neutral Pass Rate - Target the QBs on teams that pass on 1st & 2nd downs at the highest rate. The Bengals and the Chiefs are tied for the highest neutral pass rate in the league (0.6). The Eagles have the 3rd highest rate (0.59) and the Dolphins have the 4th highest (0.57). 

Adjusted Completion % - Accounting for passes thrown on target and drops, accuracy remains one of the best metrics in measuring a QB’s quality, especially in leagues that award completions. Geno Smith remains one of the most accurate QBs in the league (81.9%), followed by Jared Goff (80.4%), Tua Tagovailoa (79.8%), Josh Allen (79.5%), Lamar Jackson (79.3%), and Russell Wilson (79%).

Adjusted Yards Per Attempt (AY/A) - A statistic that not only accounts for the average yards of a pass but weighs passing touchdowns (passing yds + 20) and interceptions (passing yds - 45) as well. Tua has the best AY/A in the NFL (9.3), followed by Brock Purdy (9.1), C.J. Stroud (8.4), and Lamar Jackson (8.2). 

Average Depth of Target - Who is attempting the biggest plays downfield in the league? Jordan Love has the top ADOT in our sample (9.8 yds), followed by Deshaun Watson (9.5 yds). Justin Herbert and Derek Carr are tied for the 3rd best ADOT (9.2 yds).   

Big Time Throws % - “A pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window” (PFF). Tua has been the top operator in terms of money throws (7.1%), followed by Matthew Stafford (7%), Jalen Hurts (6.7%), and Lamar Jackson (6.5%). 

Turnover Worthy Plays % - “A pass that has a high percentage chance to be intercepted or a poor job of taking care of the ball and fumbling” (PFF) - particularly important for leagues that heavily penalize turnovers. Joe Burrow has been the most secure QB so far this season in terms of turnovers (1.5%), followed by Jared Goff (1.8%), Matthew Stafford (2%), Josh Allen (2.1%), and Dak Prescott (2.2%). Gardner Minshew has been the riskiest QB in the NFL in terms of protecting the ball (7.9%).

PFF Pass Grade - No surprise that Tua has received the highest marks amongst his peers (90.2). Josh Allen (87.7), Lamar Jackson (85.3), Jared Goff (83), and Patrick Mahomes (82.2) have all performed admirably while on assignment as well.     

Supporting Cast - The average score of the QB’s pass-blocking and receiving units combined. The Miami Special Forces Unit remains the best ensemble of top-tier operators in the league (77.25). The Lions have the second-best unit surrounding Goff (76.1), the Bills have the third-best unit around Allen (75.2), and the Eagles have the fourth-best unit supporting Hurts (73.8).

WoRP/G - The final credential is WoRP per game based upon a 12-team, start 11, 30-man roster, 6 pts per pass TD, Lineup SF league. Patrick Mahomes remains the biggest difference-making QB in SF leagues (0.172 WoRP/G). Josh Allen (0.167), Justin Herbert (0.162), Jalen Hurts (0.161), and Tua Tagovailoa (0.15) round out the top 5 for WoRP QBs.

Waiver Targets

Spymaster Vanek will provide the latest intel through his America’s Game report. In terms of FAAB bidding, review your league’s previous waiver behavior to navigate the wire best. The waiver wire will become more bare as the season continues, especially in best ball formats.

• Taylor Heinicke - 30% rostership, spend up to 15% FAAB (It is likely that Commander Arthur Smith will not make the switch at QB until it is too late for the Falcons, but he will make the switch eventually)

• Clayton Tune - 31% rostership, 1% FAAB (Don’t spend valuable FAAB on a 1-week fill-in who will get destroyed by Cleveland & then go back to the bench when Kyler takes over)

• Trubisky - 19% rostership, 1% FAAB (even if Pickett misses multiple games, Mitch will have to face Tennessee, Green Bay, & Cleveland - brutal matchups)