Trading Stats

The Dynasty Abyss

We send those men up into space to unlock the doors of the universe, and we don't even know what's behind them. 

Mulder - The X-Files

The Twilight Zone

It has long been mankind's dream to reach the distant lights in the night sky. This pioneering mindset has been the banner call of one agency in the fantasy space - The National Analytics and Strategy Administration. With breakthroughs in optimal roster construction, data analysis, and player evaluations, the brightest dynasty scientists and engineers are closer now to answering the most pondered questions about the fantasy cosmos. 

But there are rumors of another unexplored country in the deep depths of dynasty football. Hidden in this pitch-black realm are organisms that exist in the harshest conditions, under immense pressure, and would seem to defy the laws of nature. The creatures that inhabit this abyss are your leaguemates and it is the trenches of their mind that I wish to explore trading in this article.

The League Ecosystem

Like many projects, this one began with a few questions that many assume they already know the answers to. But speaking to these topics without data is like sailing past an island and saying your feet have touched the beach. Whether a frigid tundra or a rainforest teeming with activity, each league is an environment with unique cycles, seasons, resources, hierarchies, and patterns of behavior. As someone who is obsessed with trading, I’ve always wondered:

• “What are the most commonly traded assets?”

• “Is the trading market typically dominated by a select few?”

• “Is there a time of year most ripe for trading?”

• “Are certain assets better value-insulated than others?”

In this article, we will explore four major categories associated with trades: Times of Year, Types of Assets, Value Fluctuations, and Managers. With a better understanding of these areas, perhaps we can become more effective in navigating trading.

The Background

The data in this project involved analyzing every trade from all nine of my 12-team dynasty leagues from the 2023 season (from the day after the 2022 Championship till the day of the 2023 Championship). The dynasty leagues are eight Superflex leagues and one 1QB league, which include four lineup leagues and five bestball leagues, and a diverse sample of roster settings (including 2 starting TEs), scoring settings (various TE premiums), trade deadlines, and various lifetimes of the league (first year to third year).

In total, 278 trades were completed across these nine leagues during the 2023 season, all of which were 2-sided deals (556 managers). Let us first examine the types of assets being traded.

Picks Vs Players

A total of 1,115 assets were traded across these dynasty leagues in 2023. Of these 1,115 traded assets, 439 of them were draft picks, 672 were players, and 4 were FAAB transactions. This amounts to an average of 123.88 assets, 48.78 draft picks (39.38%), 74.66 players (60.27%), and 0.44 FAAB assets (0.36%) traded per league year. The average amount of pieces involved in a trade was 4.01.

Draft picks were categorized using the following criteria: picks 1-4 in a round were ranked “Early,” 5-8 “Mid,” 9-12 “Late,” 2024 picks were classified as “Next Year,” and picks in 2025 or beyond were deemed “Future.” The “#” and “%” in the right-hand column of the table below represent the total number and percentage of trades the asset was involved in.

First-round picks barely edged out thirds as the most commonly traded picks (123 vs. 122). Regardless of the round, Next Year picks were by far the most commonly traded, followed by Future picks.

Players were categorized using various criteria dependent upon the league’s starting roster settings. The ranking of these players is based on Keep, Trade, Cut (KTC) dynasty values by position at the time of the trade. Each position ranked players in increments of 12 since all of the leagues were comprised of 12 managers (ex - WR1 = Wide Receiver ranked 1-12 on KTC, WR2 = 13-24, WR3 = 25-36). All FLEXs and Bench players were dependent upon the league’s starting rosters. For example, a league that requires 3 starting WRs and 3 FLEX positions will have any WR ranked by KTC 1-36 classified as a WR-1-3, any WR ranked 37-72 would be deemed a WR FLEX, and any WR ranked 73+ would be categorized as a WR Bench for that particular league. Three of the nine dynasty leagues require 2 starting TEs, hence there being a distinction between TE2 and TE FLEX. 

To no one’s surprise, the most commonly traded players in dynasty are WRs, followed by RBs. Of these positions, FLEXs were the most frequently dealt players. Interestingly enough, Bench QBs were the third most traded players. Elite WRs and QBs appear to be amongst the most rarely traded players in dynasty football.

The Unforgiving Market

Taking the above data a step further, the following section analyzes the change in market value from the day these players were traded to their present market value. Little did I know that this simple question of how a player’s value fluctuates would cut through my mind like a soft cheese and lead me to write this article. As noted above, I tracked each player’s positional numerical value and ranking at the time of the trade compared to their present value based on Keep, Trade, Cut. The value change of draft picks was not tracked given the well-known fact that draft picks do not lose value throughout their lifespan.  

On average across all leagues, the combined value of the assets involved in a trade added up to 6,496.88 at the time of the transaction (equivalent of a late 1st + late 3rd), which in turn amounts to each manager giving up a mid 2nd worth of assets per trade. At the time of trade, these players on average ranked in the top 35.21 at their respective positions. These results were not surprising, but what came as a shock was the change in player values in less than a calendar year. 

The average positional ranking of traded players had fallen 5.31 spots from 35.21 to a current ranking of 40.52. Of the average 74.66 players traded per league, 45.56 (61.02%) of them fell in the rankings at their respective positions, leaving only 29 (38.84%) players who retained or rose the ranks. Most eye-opening was how big of a loss these players had when you graded the league as a whole on their player trades. The total value differential from the time of trade to their current rankings for players added up to a cumulative (-383.11). This was the result of not only the majority of players being traded tumbling down the rankings but a lot of them free-falling as many as 30-40 spots at their positions.

Not a single position was invulnerable to value loss, but QBs and TEs as a whole were better insulated compared to RBs and WRs when observing their average change in rankings. It should be noted that when analyzing the various tiers within the positions, the RB Bench and TE FLEX were the only types of players spared a negative grade because of the massive ascension of outliers Kyren Williams and Trey McBride skewing the data. The WR Bench position nearly achieved this same feat off the back of Puka Nacua. Outside of these positions, QB1s, QB2s, WR1s, and WR3s were the safest players to trade for.

Just as intriguing as this player data are the managers pulling the strings on these transactions. 

Bloody Pirates

On the open waters of your league, there roams a select few who control the vast majority of trade routes. But as capable as these captains may be, there is only one worthy of being called king of commerce. These high-volume traders took part in 44.10% of all trades, meaning they comprised 22.05% of all the managers involved in deals since each transaction in this sample was associated with two managers. When added together, these top-level negotiators comprised 122 of the 556 parties involved in trades, and on average shook hands with their leaguemates 13.56 times a season. When the scope of this data is expanded to include the top four negotiators, they encompass a 60.9% average of all managers involved in trades. On the flip side, the bottom-four volume traders constitute only 10.89% of managers involved in trades.

The final category of interest for this trading study pertains to timing.

What’s The Rush?!

The timing of trades was broken up into 17 periods during the calendar year associated with the most significant events of the NFL and Fantasy season. Based on the results, leagues do not typically register any trade activity until the beginning of March, when College Pro Days occur after the NFL Combine. It isn’t until mid-March, at the beginning of NFL Free-Agency, that the second largest cluster of trades transpires (avg. of 3.44 trades, 10.58% of all trades). There remains a steady pulse of trade activity throughout the Summer from the NFL Draft (7.02%), through Rookie Minicamp (5.32%), OTA’s (6.35%), and Mandatory Minicamp (7.39%). But by far the most popular time to trade is during the NFL/Fantasy regular season (before the Fantasy Trade Deadline/Fantasy Playoffs), accounting for a whopping 40.78% of all trades, with an average of 12.44 deals being completed.

In terms of buying and selling, I confirmed that the best time to buy veterans was during the off-season (the best time to sell was during the season), while the best time to acquire rookies was during the season (the worst time was during the off-season). I also discovered that even though rookie picks gain value over their lifetime, 2nd and 3rd round picks slightly dip in value for two weeks immediately preceding the start of the NFL season, so buy then! To close out this category, it should be noted that managers who traded for players during the off-season had a slightly higher chance of inheriting a player that would LOSE value (65.12%) compared to if they had waited to trade during the regular season (62.37%).  

Key Takeaways For Trading:

• Trading for FAAB remains the most underrated asset to trade for (only 0.36% of trades in the average league)

• Managers won’t roll out of bed for players worth less than a 2nd. Need to get their juices flowing with top-35-ranked players

• Elite QBs & WRs are worth their weight in value insulation

• Load up on a few extra Bench QBs; they have a healthy trade market

• If you can’t get a deal done with one of the top five traders in your league, chances of getting a deal done are low

The biggest takeaway from this article should be the 60%+ chance that any player you trade for could lose value, and depending on the type of player, it can amount to a significant loss. After last season, I vowed to leave the days of making significant off-season trades long behind. But after conducting this research, I’m taking it further by swearing off players throughout the off-season altogether. Better to load up on draft capital throughout the off-season and use those picks as ammo to trade for the players that separate themselves as real-difference makers when they make themselves known during the regular season.

Conclusion

They say we know much more about the surface of the moon than what lies at the bottom of our oceans. Similarly, our technical knowledge of fantasy football far exceeds our understanding of leaguemate behavior, which is a subject I wish to explore more in future articles. Having started this project in late August and analyzing each trade by hand, this is by far the most time-intensive project I’ve ever completed. As I embarked on this journey, I wasn’t sure what data I would find or if it would even translate into trade strategy. But after looking into these Trade Stats for each of my leagues, paired with The Lab’s capabilities to divulge portfolio data, I now have the most comprehensive Dossier I could ask for on my competitors. It is necessary to note that this data and perhaps some of these takeaways may not look the same for your league; I could only go off of what I had access to, so take this article with a grain of salt. I do not possess the technical prowess that many gifted analysts have, who can effortlessly harness far greater stores of data in the palm of their hand, so this article is nothing more than a free dive into this topic. But I hope that it will inspire others to dive deeper than I can into the trading abyss.

The Dossier

The Trade Checklist

Before You Click Accept

The Best Lessons Are Often Painful Ones

Late is the hour and waning are the moments you have left before the Sandman comes to take you away. You open your Sleeper App with just enough time to tuck in each of your rosters for bedtime, looking at each of your players with pride and joy. Overwhelmed with the worry of losing everything you fought so hard to build, you contemplate on how to best protect them. From the crack of the doorway, you whisper to yourself, “Perhaps there’s a wee bit of luck left for me to squeeze out of today. I’ll send a trade to elevate my squad to new heights and secure my future!”

Unfortunately, it has been a far too common experience of mine that instead of falling asleep knowing that my teams are safe and sound, I stay up until the witching hour concocting some ungodly Faustian bargains, and by morning I am filled with nothing but bewilderment and regret. Can you relate? Me neither. But for many others, one of the most difficult hurdles to overcome is recalling the key lessons we have learned amid trade talks. The following is a collection of some of the most painful lessons I have learned from negotiating:

1) Do Not Trade during Date Night - Do not try executing a trade agreement when your attention is needed elsewhere and you can be easily distracted. Negotiating takes mental energy so be clear-headed, alert, and do not rush the process. Do not make deals late at night when you’re slipping in and out of consciousness - no one has ever made a good decision after midnight.

2) Do Not Sell Light - If you are trading away top assets for draft capital, make sure that you are receiving difference-making 1st round picks (1.01-1.06) that have a higher likelihood of return for your investment.

3) Talk Through the Trade - There's no drawback to negotiating a trade through succinct and respectful dialogue. This includes: 

• Asking your trade partner if they are interested in a trade. If they are, what pieces are they most willing to trade away and receive?

• Making an initial offer that is fair (close to market value).

• Making a final offer that you can live with.

• That’s it. Table discussions and thank the manager for their time if a deal isn’t made.

Negotiations do not need to be drawn-out interactions where every ounce of value is squeezed out of the deal. Sending an offer before proper discourse is made can lead to some bad deals filled with regret. Do not be too eager!

4) Use KeepTradeCut, Startup ADP, FantasyCalc, & The Lab - Say what you want about their trade calculator, but KTC’s dynasty rankings are one of the best resources we have when it comes to the market value of players (almost 13 million crowdsourced data points). Equally as informative is access to the latest startup ADP data from paid leagues. Understanding the market is crucial in trades and requires having access to the latest and greatest data sets for determining value. You don’t always have to agree with a player’s consensus value but the farther you diverge from consensus the more risk you invite. If you would rather inform your decision-making based on actual trades instead of rankings or calculators, FantasyCalc and The Lab tool at South Harmon are fantastic resources.  

5) Seek a 2nd Opinion - We can often get carried away with our trades and easily lose sight of some pivotal considerations. Having someone you can go to for an unbiased opinion before you click accept is a game changer.

6) Hold Your 1st Round Picks - The previous article on Passive Trading lays out an argument for not trading any of next year's 1st until later into the season. It also should be reiterated that having a plethora of 1sts shouldn’t suggest having a looser grip on them either. The only exception to trading your 1sts early (which are both covered in Proactive Trading) is the chance at a top 3 draft pick or in a deal that lands you an elite QB. Otherwise, exercise pick restraint.

7) Conduct A Roster Inspection - Do a thorough roster assessment of the team attached to the pick you are trading away. Proper roster construction will be covered in a later article, but it’s advised to consider the likely finish of a team before you trade away their 1st.

8) Can It Wait? - One of the more nuanced items on this checklist, which once again involves knowledge of the market, is asking yourself “Do I NEED to do this trade now OR can this trade wait for later on in the season?” Very rarely do the players that we target in trades rise to such a value throughout the season that they become cost-prohibitive. Often the player either retains or loses value. The only asset that is guaranteed to rise in value is a draft pick for the upcoming class. But even if you wait on a player that you are unable to acquire later, there are likely other players in a similar tier that could be considered for trades as well.

9) Be Balanced - This is one of the hardest principles to wade through because we do not have a crystal ball. There are plenty of people in the fantasy space who can cite a million ways a player will either fail dramatically or set the fantasy world on fire, but finding someone who can do both is as rare as a unicorn. With so many factors that hang in the balance for players (talent, team situation, coaching, competition, injuries, etc.) I try my best to operate within a framework that weighs the known obstacles and historical likelihood for certain outcomes of players. Taking this measured approach not only fends off views that are largely negative or hopium-driven but also makes room to appreciate the players who overcome the insane odds to become truly great. 

10) Be Informed - Much of what I advocate is based upon individuals building their own process and analysis to discover what is meaningful on their fantasy football journeys. When one chooses to walk the Way of the Degenerate, there is a large time commitment that leads to understanding and discernment - This is the Way.  A massive component of my process is the rookie and re-draft rankings I develop for the upcoming season. Completing your work without rushing the process can ensure a larger measure of confidence in all your fantasy decisions, including your trade deals. 

11) Sleep On It - I can’t advise strongly enough how important it is to wait 24 hours to allow the trade to marinate in your mind before clicking accept. Being overly eager to get a deal done or trading out of panic never ends positively. In the same vein, do not fall victim to the used-car salesman who is pressuring you into making a deal on the spot. Showing your resolve to be patient could very well result in the other manager becoming impatient and offering a more favorable deal you can accept with confidence.

Conclusion

In a game that is won by the slightest of margins, having a process to aid in your decision-making and a checklist that you can quickly refer to can mean the difference between losing or winning it all. But even with all of that said, it’s pivotal to give yourself grace. You can have a mountain of knowledge and confidence in your system and still come up short. The high degree of chance that is involved in this game is what makes it both so frustrating and gratifying. Take any advantage you can get and look forward to tomorrow being a better day.

The Dossier

Proactive Trading

Fostering the Right Deal

Don't get too cocky my boy. No matter how good you are, don't ever let them see you coming.

Milton - The Devil’s Advocate

It’s Not About What You Know. It’s About Who You Know.

What is the most important asset in fantasy football? Elite quarterbacks? A treasure trove of picks? Or maybe it's powerful tools and analytics? That would make sense if we were robots or viewed fantasy as purely transactional, but there are aspects of fantasy football that are far more organic. In leagues that allow you to trade, your most important commodity is relational capital. In today’s leagues, trading requires more than specialized knowledge, salesmanship, or waiting for a fish to come to bite your hook. If you want more managers to dine at your table, you need to be a hospitable host.

Trades are a fragile system with a multitude of ways they can fall apart, and a host of reasons managers will not give you the time of day to listen. The most important factors to be cognizant of in the realm of negotiating are timing, opportunity, and rapport.

Timing

Leaguemates will ultimately not be receptive to trading if they don’t want to or don't need to. This is tied up in their perceived likelihood of making a championship run, as well as how they value the individual pieces on their team. Looming at the forefront of every manager’s mind you trade with is the possibility that the asset they are sending away is going to ascend (otherwise, why would you want them?) or the piece they are receiving is going to plummet. Beginning with an understanding of your trade partner’s team needs and their willingness to part with certain assets is the best way to start negotiations. Ultimately, needs and circumstances change, so it's best to view any ‘no’ you may be told as a ‘not now’ and remain patient.

Opportunity

As a community that is constantly stimulated with analysis, we are very susceptible to overreacting to anything that fogs or threatens our current plans. It can be difficult to discern the best course of action during these events, but effectively navigating them presents us with some of the best trade opportunities in fantasy. These opportunities come in many forms and fashions, but rarely are they anything we haven’t seen before. It would be difficult to succinctly explain how to maneuver when these situations arise, but don’t worry we will explore many of these topics in future articles. For now, I will recommend doing a little bit of your own research that also includes the views of others so that you are well-rounded in your perspective, fading the Twitter noise, and watching the game. All these factors will play a role in discovering your own risk tolerance and will help you develop a process. There will be times your fellow leaguemates place their panicked assets on the trade block, but the opportunities I’m more intrigued by are the ones uncovered through research before they become talking points.

Rapport

How you treat your leaguemates and how you carry yourself during negotiations is just as critical to getting a deal done as the trade itself. It begins with seeing things from your leaguemate’s perspective and understanding their wants. As great as it is to be applauded for ‘winning’ one deal, I would much rather ‘win’ a leaguemate through amiable trade talks who will prefer me as a trade partner for multiple future deals. These managers become your “repeat customers.” The best way to develop this is by being: 

• Easy to work with - don’t be an ass or pushy.

• Prepared - already have some deals in mind that you would accept if you were in the other manager’s shoes. This includes your initial offer & your final offer.

• Succinct - Be straightforward & to the point.

• Painless - get in & out as quickly as possible, do not drag things out.

• Stay away from having to persuade, this can come across as manipulative.

• Inquiring - The best way to get a deal done is to ask what they want & are willing to do.

• Carefree - Be patient & willing to table negotiations for a later time.

• Available as a Resource.

If I could only choose one characteristic, I find the last point the most compelling. Being willing to share your knowledge and help your competitors is the type of backward wisdom that fosters the best trade relationships and long-lasting leagues we all live for. There may only be a few managers who are open and interested in your offer to help, so do not waste your time on kabuki managers who do not see eye-to-eye with you or annoy others with your unsolicited advice.

There is a great deal of responsibility that comes from being a resource to others. Leaguemates who are less experienced or knowledgeable may place a great deal of confidence in you when it comes to their moves or trades. When competition and money come into play, perceptions can turn quickly and become personal. To be a trustworthy steward of these relationships, it is essential to leave the ball as much in their court as possible and have the other party in the driver’s seat of the negotiation. This may be as simple as saying, “Hey, I’m looking to trade away this asset, are you interested?” or “What would it take for me to acquire this player of yours?” and nothing more. Even with all the best intentions, trades can age badly and thus fairly or unfairly sour the rapport. Be above reproach in this area and give more than you receive.

The Seasons of Trading

Depending on your league, you can execute trades whenever you would like. However, there are well-established times during the fantasy football cycle that are favorable for certain assets:

• The Startup Draft - Great for buying future picks when some managers want a head-start on fielding the most competitive teams.

• The NFL Combine & Draft - Great time to buy solid vets while your leaguemates are drooling over the incoming rookie class.

• Your Fantasy Rookie Draft - Generally the best time to sell picks for players or future picks.

• Depth Players - The last couple weeks of the off-season is the best time to buy the bargain-bin vets to fill out your roster.

• Selling Players - By weeks 5-8 you should have a pretty good idea if you’re a legitimate contender (top 4 in points scored). If you’re not a contender, you want to be one of the first managers to trade away players to playoff contenders for picks (or injured upside players) because if you wait until the trade deadline then you're going to have competition with other non-contenders.

• Selling Players Part II: The Trade Deadline - You want to be the first to market in terms of trading away players for picks around the midpoint of the season, but it is recommended to sow the seeds of larger future deals in the minds of playoff teams and wait until a week or two before the trade deadline when they are most desperate. Be patient on parting with your more valuable assets that you're willing to trade away.

• Selling Picks - Hold onto your picks until later on in the season as a contender - you will get your best deals from rebuilders as they get more desperate to accumulate draft capital.

• Buying Future Picks - Outside of your startup draft, the entire off-season is a great period to acquire next year’s picks, with August typically being the absolute best time to buy.

• Buying Players - Start with smaller trades (3rd & 4th round pick values) earlier in the season. As the season progresses, the picks you’re willing to trade for players can increase in value (2nds & 1sts). Have a list of players who can help carry you to a championship and reach out to their managers earlier on to lay the foundations of a possible trade. It is preferable to have those managers wait until close to the deadline to trade your wish-list players, which mitigates the risk of trading for a player who gets injured.

  An additional perk of waiting on trading for players is the larger sample of data on player performance throughout a season (especially WoRP - Wins Over Replacement Player) that will better inform you on the best players to target in a trade. 

  Lastly, there tends to be a larger pool of players available on the trade block later in the season. So often there are teams that either through poor management or plain bad luck are much more willing to trade their valuable players at a better price when the reality sinks in they are going to miss the players and they have no draft picks going into next season.

• Buying Players Schedule

  • Weeks 1-2 - Be willing to trade a 3rd

  • Weeks 3-4 - Be willing to trade 2x 3rds

  • Weeks 5-8 - Be willing to trade a 2nd

  • Weeks 9-12 - Be willing to trade 2x 2nds (or 1x early 2nd)

  • Weeks 13-16- Be willing to trade a 1st

Speakeasy vs VIP

For the most part, I apply a barrel-aged, sit-back, and slow-sip approach to my trading. But there are occasions where spontaneity and splurging are just as essential for the life of your fantasy roster as being relaxed with your trading. If draft picks are the kings of dynasty, then the king of kings are picks 1.01-1.03. It should go without saying that having one or multiple of these picks while rebuilding is the top priority. But how do you acquire these picks while contending yourself? The first step is identifying the most poorly constructed and managed rosters in your league. These are the teams that have no elite QBs, a lack of difference-makers on offense, are one injury away from catastrophe but are still willing to trade and want to make the playoffs. Targeting these managers very early on and acquiring their first-round picks for the next two to three seasons is perhaps the biggest difference-making move one can make. The beauty of this strategy is that even if you initially establish your team as rebuilding, you are betting on your team eventually ascending in a year or two while the other team who forfeited their picks will forever wallow in the upside-down.

Managers who believe they are contenders do not need to be offered anything more than fringe 1st round-valued players for their picks. If you are rebuilding, be willing to take risks and offer up to two assets that are each worth a 1st to acquire projected top 3 picks earlier on in the season. If you are contending, you will have to decide if you want to commit yourself to such a bold move or instead devote your assets to securing a championship.

The only other exceptions worth moving heaven and earth for are elite QBs. The top six to eight dynasty quarterbacks (consensus startup rankings) all offer special talent, security, and production. If any elite quarterbacks ever grace your league’s trade block, devote every resource you can within reason to acquiring them. Making this type of move requires a true iron bank of picks (6-8 1sts spread over the next two drafts) and may be worth the high cost, even if it sets you back one additional year before contending.

Cold & Calculated

One of the hardest disciplines to learn while building an eventual contender is not becoming too attached to the highest-valued skill position players. The previous Passive Trading article lays out the risks of trading a bounty of high-valued assets for one elite WR, RB, or TE. Using the same logic, it behooves a manager to actively shop these players for top dollar while rebuilding. Here’s why:

• The top valued skilled players (Jefferson, Chase, Bijan, and the next Kyle Pitts) have already capped in value - they cannot ascend any higher overtaking elite QBs in SF. 

• Their production works against securing the best possible draft picks.

• There isn’t enough of a production gap between them and their often much cheaper, older veteran counterparts - this is the key difference between skill players and QBs.

It is acceptable to hold these players once you have constructed a juggernaut and have the proper depth and collection of draft picks at your disposal. But the main objective to get to that level of play is accruing as many valuable assets as you can. There is a power of multiplication where each piece gained from trading this type of player away can be further flipped into multiple shots of impactful advantages. The next time you are blessed with the great fortune of having the next Ja’Marr Chase who skyrockets to #1 status their rookie year, wait until the right deal comes your way, and you could potentially turn that one player into the next trifecta of Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, and Marvin Harrison Jr.

Other Ideal Trades:

• Trade for production (older productive players you can acquire at a discount) OR trade for value (younger players whose trade value can increase) - both types of trades are valuable.

• If you are rebuilding & have low draft capital: trade away the talented, aging players that do not line up with your competition window.

• During the first few weeks of the season, if you have a plethora of 1sts while rebuilding, then consider moving a pick that projects to be late for a player whose profile is good but perhaps whose production value is depressed (previously, DeVonta & Aiyuk) over players that have a lot of hopium attached to them.

• If you are looking to trade away a starting WR, seek out the manager who rosters the QB of that WR & offer them the potential stack.

Woe To Those Who:

• Trade away stud players for depth - There is a diminishing return if the gap of your down-tier is too large between the stud you are sending away for the pieces you are receiving. Older, fringe players can cliff in value overnight. 

• Trade away 1sts & 2nds for depth - These types of highly liquid assets should be reserved for players who will regularly enter your lineup, not for insurance policies.

• Trade away highly drafted players before week 4 - Players can stumble out the gate or may sustain short-term injuries. Fade the negative narratives and remember the season is 17 weeks long.

• Operate on a “One Player Away” mentality - Ignore the “all I need” voice that is tempting you to deplete your most valuable picks for one player that will make your starting lineup sexier. Injuries and duds can pile up quickly, so your projected late 1st could prove to be earlier. It’s pivotal to have the proper depth when making a title run. 

• Additionally, do not overpay for these “final piece” players, especially if they are not young elite studs. Remember, the trades you walk away from can be just as good as the ones you make.

• Lessons Learned from 2023:

• Do Not Be Beholden to Perfect Roster Construction - As great as it feels to go into the season with all the boxes of your roster checked, achieving ideal roster construction comes at a high cost. With high variance and attrition, it is best to wait until the mid or late part of the season before you decide to start pushing your chips on acquiring the final difference-making pieces to your optimal roster puzzle.

• FAAB & Keep-Away - Having the biggest FAAB budget in the playoffs remains the most underrated advantage a competitor can have.

• For more great lessons from last season, be sure to check out the Week 16 Dossier: The Great Regret.

From Beginning Till No End

It can be easy to feel like Alice while trying to understand any one aspect of fantasy football - it is a story that needs to be read cover to cover several times before it starts to click. My overall goal with these articles is to teach individuals how to fish for themselves rather than spending so much time relying on being fed by others. I’ll end it with another Al Pacino quote that embodies the spirit of trading for me.

They say you don’t buy it, you rent it. You don’t keep anything really. You try to stave off insecurity, but you can’t do it. Stocks, bonds, objects of art, real estate. What are they? An opportunity. To what? To make money? Perhaps. To lose money? Perhaps. To 'indulge' and to 'learn' about ourselves? Perhaps. They're an opportunity. That's all they are. They're an event.

Roma - Glengarry Glen Ross

The Dossier

Passive Trading

The Art of the Patient Deal

Sometimes, The Best Deals Are The Ones You Never Make

How many times have you made a deal that you almost instantly regret? Or how many times did you mortgage your future with your draft capital on a player only to miss the playoffs that season? Between countless hours filling in cells on spreadsheets with the latest analytics, or overdosing on an ocean of content, it can be easy to obsess over our fantasy football teams and make these mistakes. But like a dark comedy, the results of our efforts are often ironic & cruel.

It’s not any of our faults either - we are limited by the structures of the traditional snake startup draft and the scarcity of ideal players that leave much to be desired when we first see our lineups. That’s why trading is so much fun! It’s not only the art of negotiating and the thrill of the deal but also the opportunity to take our rosters to whole new levels. The problem is that this road has many more paths to peril and destruction than glory.

It is pivotal to establish above all else that we need to leave a lot of room for error. As much as I believe in the power of data it’s important to temper expectations on what analytics can do for us today. I have a great deal of respect for anyone wanting to wrangle with the multiverse of unpredictable variables inherent in football, but we cannot forecast too much certainty on injuries, or if a player is going to breakout/fall off, if a new coach/scheme is going to be effective, or even which NFL teams are going to be bad! Even when we have a consensus view as a fantasy community, real-life football personnel like to remind us how often their thoughts are not aligned with ours.

We cannot avoid the impact these variables have on our fantasy football teams because they are out of our control. The only thing left for us to focus on is our decision-making. I believe the best results come from marrying a process of preparation with a commitment to patience in trading. If nearly everyone you are playing against is operating off the same ADPs, pieces of team news, and player projections, then the only angle left to pursue is towards your fellow leaguemates themselves. The following lessons are principles that will serve you well in remaining steadfast and calculated in trading throughout the fantasy season. There are of course exceptions to each of these rules that are largely dependent upon league settings, but for most of these examples please consider them in the context of players/picks of consequence and high value.

Learn from the Past

Before we get into the principles, we are going to take a painful trip (fun for you) down memory lane with my past dynasty leagues. I reviewed the off-season (from renewal until the 1st game of the regular season) trades of three different dynasty leagues that I participated in 2021 and 2022. The first league is 1QB with 42 off-season trades I appraised in 2021 and 36 trades in 2022. The second league is SuperFlex with 14 off-season trades I graded in 2021 and 17 trades in 2022. The last league is also SF with 1 offseason trade in 2021 and 15 trades in 2022. I did not include startup pick trades in my sample. I evaluated each trade by awarding one side a positive grade if I deemed it a clear-cut win. On average, only 1/10 of the trades I reviewed were either positive for both managers or had negligible results. There were a few key takeaways I gathered from this exercise:

• Very few teams won more than 50% of their trades.

• The teams that won the championship either didn’t trade in the offseason or won more than 50% of their trades.

• The most apparent takeaway - the teams that were focused on pick acquisition accounted for the most won trades.

• Not all leagues are the same - both SF leagues I reviewed had a higher percentage of won trades on the non-playoff side of the league (where picks were the focus), compared to the 1 QB league where the vast amount of won trades were accounted by playoff teams (where players were the focus). This makes sense considering QB’s and picks are a much higher value in SF leagues vs 1 QB leagues.

• The teams that committed to hoarding picks through 2021-2022 are amongst the most intimidating rosters going into 2023.

It’s All About Timing

Regardless of how you play fantasy football, I would like to advocate adding a Risk-Adverse philosophy to your repertoire, where the focus is not only weighing what historical data has taught us (the odds something will happen), but mainly considering the multitude of things that can go wrong with a trade. We are limited by the perceived value of the current players and draft capital at our disposal, which in turn limits the chances to execute trades, and even fewer chances to strike out with bad trades before we find ourselves in a tough spot. But it isn’t enough to think of trades as ‘at-bats’ - to hit a home run you also need to consider 'when to swing.' We will cover when to swing in the next edition of this series Proactive Trading - Fostering the Right Deal.

DON’T SWING at Championships early in the off-season - Engaging in an arms race during the off-season for the most dominant starting lineup at the expense of your most valuable draft capital is a massive risk that often doesn’t work. It’s a bad bet to gamble with your picks on players before the NFL Draft, Free-Agency, or Pre-Season injuries in hopes your targeted players don’t lose value. 

DON’T SWING too hard at the Elite Skill-Positions - It’s one thing if you are only going up one tier between players and the investment is tolerable. But putting 2-3+ high draft pick eggs into one basket that can get hurt, underperform, or have valuable touches taken away by another player is a great way of really setting your team back. It wasn’t too long ago that Jonathan Taylor was routinely being traded away for 3+ 1st-round picks. And despite remaining an RB1 in dynasty, the winds have changed on JT’s value following his abysmal 2022 season and you’ll be lucky if you can trade him for more than half his former value. The same can be said about Kyle Pitts, but I am hopeful for his situation to improve and his value to bounce back.

Of course, there are players like Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, and CeeDee Lamb that people will champion as exceptions to the rule. As much as I love these players and recognize the WoRP (wins over replacement player) they bring, the gap advantage isn’t the same as the elite QBs of the world have in most SuperFlex leagues over just about every other player, or Kelce once had over every other tight end. It is my preference to down-tier Jefferson and Chase into another elite WR with a plus on top or into an elite QB in an SF league.

The Iron Bank

Draft Capital is king in dynasty football. High draft picks (1.01-1.06) predominantly increase in value throughout their lifespan because the picks themselves can’t get hurt. They are also bolstered by the NFL Combine and Draft during a period when fantasy managers are starving for anything football-related. Lastly, they are attached to young prospects that we hope will dominate in the professional league. When you stockpile enough of these picks doors start opening and very often the best players become available to you for trading. The only catch to the Iron Bank approach is that it often requires an immediate commitment to a Rebuilding strategy at the inception of your league. 

In a full-scale rebuild, the main assets retained are cornerstone QBs, draft capital, and the skill players who have not yet crescendoed in value. I would further expand this to tight ends who still have three-plus years of elite play left in 1.75-2 pt TE Premium leagues. Any other player on your squad should be put on the trade block with a price tag in mind. In this type of rebuild, you don’t foresee making a title run either this year or next year, but if done correctly then the third year is when you put the league on notice. Given this time frame, it doesn’t make much sense to target running backs given their shelf life or elite WRs that have peaked in value and would be more useful as assets that could be broken up into multiple high-valued pieces.

Your main objective in rebuilding is to feed and protect your war chest of highly valued picks. This means controlling the market on early to mid-rookie picks while rebuilding (3-4+ 1sts per class is ideal). One simple move to get this strategy rolling is to trade away any projected late 1st (1.10-1.12) or early 2nd round picks to a desperate manager for their next year’s first-round pick. It’s a better bet that the late pick you traded away will either turn into a better pick next year or can be traded for a better player in-season than the rookie you would have otherwise spent it on whose hit rate of a future top season is historically half the odds of a top 6 rookie player. 

With this goal in mind, it is also advantageous to trade away the older, productive assets that won’t likely see the day you make a title run and whose point-scoring works against your odds of capturing a top pick in your upcoming rookie draft. This strategy works well when employing a passive trading mindset considering the peak value of these productive veterans is often mid to late into the fantasy seasons when championships hang in the balance. Just be sure to not sell great vets at a discount - be patient and wait for the need to arise late in the season (they always do).

Fade The Hype

The most common pitfalls I see that ensnare managers is when they deplete their caches of draft capital to go on spending sprees of the highest market-value players (which can often be less productive than their more experienced/cheaper vet counterparts) or overvalue the impact an incoming rookie will have on their fantasy production. In terms of the first trap, it can be quite easy to abandon the Iron Bank strategy when you have 8-10 1st round picks burning a hole in your pocket and the off-season drags on with no football in sight. Very rarely are these resources allocated towards the correct pieces for roster construction and with the proper amount of depth to endure a full fantasy season. Instead, they are often spent on the shiniest toys.

Just as tempting is the emotional draw rookies can have on our heartstrings. Peter Howard (@pahowdy) is the best in the industry regarding grounding our expectations of incoming rookies and their historical hit rates. His findings suggest based upon data between 2010-2021, that on average there are 2 QBs, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, and 2 TEs that are selected in the first three rounds of the NFL draft that have at least 1 top 12 fantasy season per rookie class. Overall, your odds of hitting on a top 12-24 contributor in the first round of your rookie draft is about the same as a coin flip. Those odds are cut in half for each subsequent round of your rookie drafts, with some positions faring much better than others (RB/TE being your best bets).

Following your rookie drafts, do not squander next year’s draft capital buying up all the rookies you missed out on because of some overzealous beat reporter who claimed that Trey Sermon or Terrace Marshall was the next great thing (it still hurts). You especially want to be wary of trading for any rookies selected in the 3rd round of the NFL Draft or later with risky profiles by waiting until the Pre-Season dust settles and the final depth charts are cemented (I’m looking at you Isaiah Spiller). Even if you suffer pre-season injuries it’s best to exercise restraint and fade the noise.

Final Kernels of Wisdom

Don’t shoot yourself in the foot by:   

• Trading away good profile/good situation rookies too soon (unless a 1st Rd pick is involved, hold).

• Trading away young, productive players after just one season.

• Trading top dollar for a player that hasn't done much for multiple healthy seasons and the community has written off (later career breakouts are incredibly hard to predict).

• Trading away your best starters before trying to trade your backups.

• Trading away your best picks (1sts & 2nds) initially - start with smaller trades with 4ths & 3rds before ramping up to the higher picks before the trade deadline.

• Trading away all your shares of a talented & young player because of a frustrating injury history. There isn't much sense in selling at a panicked discount, especially if you are rebuilding anyway. Deebo Samuel taught me this lesson.

• Trading away valuable assets for pricey RBs early on.

• Trading away picks before you confidently know their value.

• Trading away top dollar for non-elite QBs.

The Hardest Choices Require The Strongest Wills

There is nothing sexy about patient trading, nor is it fun donating to your league pot for multiple years while rebuilding in the hopes of “next year is my year!” With that being said, adopting a rebuild strategy is a much easier pill to swallow when 25-30% of your other leagues are in “win-now” mode. Pairing this with a Portfolio Approach and diversifying the players across your various leagues should offer enough variety to keep your hands from becoming too idle. But don't confuse passive trading with being lazy; there is a lot of groundwork and research to be done throughout the off-season to help prepare yourself for the upcoming season. In today’s leagues, it requires a Thanos level of commitment, preparation, execution, and patience to win (and luck). Stay the course, and at the end of all your labors, you can finally rest and watch the sunrise on multiple championships.

The Dossier