The Way It Used To Be
Joe slept contently in his bed as a rock clinked and clacked its way down the air supply pipe before smacking him right between the eyes. “What the FRICK!” he exclaimed rubbing his forehead. Picking up the rock he remained motionless as he squinted into the pitch-black pipe. “It’s a BEAUTI-FUL MORN-ING! Ahhhh! I think I’ll stay inside for a while!” Jim shouted as he kicked in his son’s bedroom door.
Some Useful Thresholds For Ranking WRs & RBs
Chapter 1
Joe slept contently in his bed as a rock clinked and clacked its way down the air supply pipe before smacking him right between the eyes. “What the FRICK!” he exclaimed rubbing his forehead. Picking up the rock he remained motionless as he squinted into the pitch-black pipe. “It’s a BEAUTI-FUL MORN-ING! Ahhhh! I think I’ll stay inside for a while!” Jim shouted as he kicked in his son’s bedroom door.
“I’m already awake Dad.”
“Well that’s good cause you’re late for class,” Jim replied. Jim was a tall man with broad shoulders and a noticeably poor posture. He often looked tired from spending countless hours researching and writing. He proudly wore his faded jeans and grey crewneck Lions sweatshirt every day.
“I still need to feed Sauron,” Joe replied looking over at his hamster, who often secluded himself in his solitary tower amongst his maze of tubes.
“I’ll feed him. Just get to class,” Jim said. “What are you learning about?”
“We’re still learning about rankings,” Joe said as he grabbed his green and yellow ballcap and hurried to the front door switch.
“I’ll see ya later,” Jim mumbled as the steel hatch closed.
The classroom went dark momentarily until the blue light from the rear hologram tunneled its way to the front. There he was, flickering in the gloom and suspended in mid-air making an acrobatic catch over a defender.
“Alright! As you might have figured out by now, we are going to begin today’s lecture discussing historic wide-receiver thresholds!” the Coach bellowed. The Coach could be heard a mile away from the swishes of his windbreaker or the whistle he blew at unsuspecting students. “Here is our golden standard. Justin Jefferson. He is the WR all other WRs aspire to be and the one we measure all other WRs by. Now, being in our Silo, we can run billions of simulations with GPS tracking, we can refer to genetic testing performed on prospects at birth, consult KTC Brokers, or refer to Alpha Dog when creating our rankings. But those options weren’t available to dynasty players in the Old World. Your daddies used crude data points like height and weight to figure this stuff out.
“Let’s pretend the year is 2023. Using a minimum WR threshold of 5’9”, 180 lbs can anyone tell me how many top-12 WRs in PPR WoRP met that requirement?”
“All of them Coach!” a student blurted out.
“That’s right Larry,” Coach replied. “But what if we sort by the old-school PPR points per game?”
“Same result Coach!” Larry exclaimed.
“Obviously, this may be easy for some of ya like Larry, but this is the minimum threshold. The ideal threshold for a WR is 5’10”, 180 lbs. Where every inch counts, do our WoRP results change for the top 12?”
“No Coach!” a different student shouted. “Regardless if WoRP or PPR points per game sort the data, all the wide receivers in this sample meet the ideal threshold!”
“Nothing gets past you Barry!” Coach acclaimed. “Alrighty, let's move on…”
“Coach?” a voice cracked in the back row. “Aren’t there some WR 2’s and 3’s that don’t fit these thresholds?”
“Who said that?” The silence was deafening as Coach scanned the classroom.
“It’s Joe sir,” he said raising his hand. The overhead lights flashed on, disorienting the students.
“Well since you’re so curious, why don’t we have you do a little exercise for all of us Joe? Come to the front!”
Joe stood up awkwardly from his desk and marched to what felt like his execution. No student dared to make eye contact with Joe, afraid they would be swept up in the Coach’s trial. That is except the twins Larry and Barry, who made sure Joe noticed their shaking heads and grins.
“Now, I want you to write for all of us Joe the top 36 WRs from 2023 sorted by WoRP and PPG for both the minimum and ideal thresholds. We’ll wait,” Coach said with his arms folded.
Joe began to write…
Minimum WR Thresholds: ≥ 5'9" , 180 lbs
WoRP (PPR)
(1-12) Hill, Lamb, Amon-Ra, Keenan, Puka, A.J., Evans, D.J., Aiyuk, Deebo, Adams, Pittman -- (13-24) Diggs, Amari, Nico, Chase, DeVonta = 6’0” 170 lbs (17th in PPR WoRP), Thielen, Olave, Metcalf, Waddle, Garrett, Pickens, Jefferson -- (25-36) Flowers, Hopkins, Addison = 5’11” 173 lbs (27th in PPR WoRP), Ridley, Kupp, Dell = 5’8” 165 lbs (30th in PPR WoRP), Rice, Jayden Reed, Jakobi, Godwin, London, McLaurin
0/12 = 0%
1/24 = 4.17%
3/36 = 8.33%
PPG (PPR)
(1-12) Lamb, Hill, Keenan, Amon-Ra, Jefferson, Puka, Nico, AJ, DJ, Mike Williams, Evans, Chase -- (13-24) Deebo, Diggs, Adams, Pittman, Aiyuk, Amari, Dell = 5’8” 165 lbs (19th in PPR PPG), Olave, DeVonta = 6’0” 170 lbs (21st in PPR PPG), Waddle, Metcalf, Jakobi -- (25-36) Kupp, Thielen, Jayden Reed, Ridley, Rice, Hopkins, Addison = 5’11” 173 lbs (31st in PPR PPG), Flowers, Garrett, Kirk, Bourne, Godwin
0/12 = 0%
2/24 = 8.33%
3/36 = 8.33%
Ideal WR Thresholds: ≥ 5'10", 180 lbs
WoRP (PPR)
(1-12) Hill, Lamb, Amon-Ra, Keenan, Puka, A.J., Evans, D.J., Aiyuk, Deebo, Adams, Pittman -- (13-24) Diggs, Amari, Nico, Chase, DeVonta = 6’0” 170 lbs (17th in PPR WoRP), Thielen, Olave, Metcalf, Waddle = 5’9” 180 lbs (21st in PPR WoRP), Garrett, Pickens, Jefferson -- (25-36) Flowers = 5’9” 182 lbs (25th in PPR WoRP), Hopkins, Addison = 5’11” 173 lbs (27th in PPR WoRP), Ridley, Kupp, Dell = 5’8” 165 lbs (30th in PPR WoRP), Rice, Jayden Reed, Jakobi, Godwin, London, McLaurin
0/12 = 0%
2/24 = 8.33%
5/36 = 13.89%
PPG (PPR)
(1-12) Lamb, Hill, Keenan, Amon-Ra, Jefferson, Puka, Nico, AJ, DJ, Mike Williams, Evans, Chase -- (13-24) Deebo, Diggs, Adams, Pittman, Aiyuk, Amari, Dell = 5’8” 165 lbs (19th in PPR PPG), Olave, DeVonta = 6’0” 170 lbs (21st in PPR PPG), Waddle = 5’9” 180 lbs (22nd in PPR PPG), Metcalf, Jakobi -- (25-36) Kupp, Thielen, Jayden Reed, Ridley, Rice, Hopkins, Addison = 5’11” 173 lbs (31st in PPR PPG), Flowers = 5’9” 182 lbs (32nd in PPR PPG), Garrett, Kirk, Bourne, Godwin
0/12 = 0%
3/24 = 12.5%
5/36 = 13.89%
“Can you tell us what you notice about these players that fall outside the threshold Joe?” Coach asked. Joe looked at the screen before ultimately shaking his head.
“They are all BETAS!” Larry hollered.
“Do we care about beta’s or outliers?” Coach posed to the class with his eyes fixed on Joe.
“NO!” the whole class said in unison.
“In case you forgot Joe, only the gamblers that walk above your head put their hopes in outliers. You do care about winning, don’t ya?”
“What about running backs Coach?”
“I guess not,” Coach exhaled. “How about after class, you can repeat this same exercise for RBs and captivate anyone interested in learning about a dead position. Take your seat.”
Joe kept his head down for the rest of the class, wondering why he couldn’t help but disagree and make a fool of himself constantly.
At the end of the lecture, Joe diligently typed out the entire RB list. He noticed that very few top RBs didn’t fit the minimum threshold, but a significantly higher percentage of RBs didn’t fall within the classic ideal archetype in 2023. After finishing and excited to share his findings, he looked up to find that only the chairs and desks stuck around with bated breath.
Minimum RB Thresholds: ≥ 5'7", 198 lbs
WoRP (PPR)
(1-12) McCaffrey, Kyren 5’9” 194 lbs (2nd in PPR WoRP), Mostert, Breece, Etienne, Rachaad, Cook, Henry, Bijan, Barkley, Gibbs, Kamara -- (13-24) Mixon, Pollard, Pacheco, Ford, Brian Robinson, Swift, Walker, Montgomery, Achane = 5’9” 188 lbs (21st in PPR WoRP), Ekeler, Conner, Warren
1/12 = 8.33%
2/24 = 8.33%
PPG (PPR)
(1-12) McCaffrey, Kyren 5’9” 194 lbs (2nd in PPR PPG), Kamara, Mostert, Achane = 5’9” 188 lbs (5th in PPR PPG), Breece, Etienne, Gibbs, Barkley, Rachaad, Mixon, Taylor -- (13-24) Conner, Pacheco, Montgomery, Henry, Bijan, Jacobs, Cook, Walker, Brian Robinson, Ekeler, Pollard, Swift
2/12 = 16.67%
2/24 = 8.33%
Ideal RB Thresholds: 5'9", 210 lbs
WoRP (PPR)
(1-12) McCaffrey = 5’11” 202 lbs (1st in PPR WoRP), Kyren 5’9” 194 lbs (2nd in PPR WoRP), Mostert = 5’11” 205 lbs (3rd in PPR WoRP), Breece, Etienne, Rachaad, Cook = 5’11” 199 lbs (7th in PPR WoRP), Henry, Bijan, Barkley, Gibbs = 5’9” 199 lbs (11th in PPR WoRP), Kamara -- (13-24) Pollard, Pacheco, Ford, Brian Robinson, Swift = 5’8” 212 lbs (18th in PPR WoRP), Walker, Montgomery, Achane = 5’9” 188 lbs (21st in PPR WoRP), Ekeler = 5’9” 199 (22nd in PPR WoRP), Conner, Warren = 5’8” 207 lbs
5/12 = 41.67%
9/24 = 37.5%
PPG (PPR)
(1-12) McCaffrey = 5’11” 202 lbs (1st in PPR PPG), Kyren 5’9” 194 lbs (2nd in PPR PPG), Kamara, Mostert = 5’11” 205 lbs (4th in PPR PPG), Achane = 5’9” 188 lbs (5th in PPR PPG), Breece, Etienne, Gibbs = 5’9” 199 lbs (8th in PPR PPG), Barkley, Rachaad, Mixon, Taylor -- (13-24) Conner, Pacheco, Montgomery, Henry, Bijan, Jacobs, Cook = 5’11” 199 lbs (19th in PPR PPG), Walker, Brian Robinson, Ekeler = 5’9” 199 (22nd in PPR PPG), Pollard, Swift = 5’8” 212 lbs (24th in PPR PPG)
5/12 = 41.67%
8/24 = 33.33%
Chapter 2
Joe sat silently at his modest dinner table, scrunching his toes on the AstroTurf carpet. The sound of Jim’s record player bounced gently off the riveted lead-cased walls. He played Humperdinck when he felt particularly sentimental.
“What’s wrong Joe? You barely touched your party wings.”
“Dad, what was 2023 like for RBs?” Joe asked.
“Well, let’s see,” Joe said as he rubbed his goatee. “Lots of great backs were in the twilight of their careers. Kamara, Ekeler, Mixon, and Conner all enjoyed their final year of relevance. They all fell off hard in 2024. The great PFF historian Tej Seth discovered that most RBs have negative rushing yards over expected (RYOE) after their rookie contracts in year five. Some of the elites can keep it up in year six, but an RB staying productive through year seven is extremely rare. Barkley enjoyed a nice season with the Eagles. And of course, there was Henry with the Ravens! Man, what a season he had in his ninth year!”
“Nine years!?!” Joe said intrigued.
“Oh Ya! Over 2,000 career carries at that point. He hung in there while most other runners saw negative RYOE after 1,500 career carries. Jacobs and CMC didn’t last much longer after 2024. It was the end of an era. Only a few workhorses stuck around after that in the Old World.” Jim stared solemnly into the small, rounded television. He could picture the vintage football clips from the early 21st century playing in black and white.
“Everyone got mad at me in class cause I questioned thresholds. Coach said outliers and betas are for the gamblers out there,” Joe said.
“You know, one of the best players of all time was an outlier. He was also RB, no less,” Jim said pointing to a poster in the corner of the room. “Barry Sanders was not an ideal size at 5,8” and 203 lbs. He was the smallest player to ever win MVP. There’s never been a player like him since.” Jim paused and took a deep breath before continuing, “He was your grandfather’s favorite player. It’s the reason why I’m a Detroit fan. You have to understand Joe, people don’t like outliers because it tests their process. But sometimes, you Can’t Help Falling In Love, as someone once said. For some, it’s a lot easier to act like unicorns aren’t real.”
Joe laughed, “But unicorns aren’t real Dad.”
Jim smiled, “I’ll finish your wings. Go finish your homework.”
“Oh Dad, one last thing. My classmates were down in the archives. Who’s Brandi Love?”
“She was also an MVP son.”
Chapter 3
The metal cushioned chair squeaked as Joe rocked back and forth. With his arms folded behind his head, he watched his ceiling fan and contemplated his homework assignment. The prompt was straightforward but wasn’t easy: define the characteristics of a historical #1 at any position. Pouring over his history books, he came across the records of Peter Howard, Mike Liu, and Drew Osinchuk from the 2020s. Knowing precisely who asserted the following has been lost to the annals of history:
“There are five characteristics necessary to be the top-performing RB.
Must have an elite trait (90th percentile 40-yard dash, Speed Score, Burst Score, or Agility Score.)
Must have a 75th percentile or better College Dominator Rating or at least one season in the NFL with a top 10 Dominator rating (above 34%).
Top 5 in Target Share amongst RBs (above 10.6%).
Top 5 in Snap Share (above 68.6%)
Top 5 in Red Zone touches.
Based on this data, Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, and Jonathan Taylor are strong candidates to be the top RB in 2024. Bijan Robinson has a path to being the best runner if the new regime in Atlanta can provide the sophomore elite Red Zone opportunities. Breece Hall is the final contender vying to be the best back in 2024. His main hurdles will be Red Zone opportunities and a top 5 Snap Share.”
I wonder who the best was in 2024? But before Joe could turn the page, his motion was interrupted by a familiar sound. This time, it was a bottle cap that journeyed its way to his soft pillow. Inspecting the red cola emblem, Joe turned his gaze to the cold metal slats of the round vent. He removed the cover and looked up into the dark void.
“Hello?”
