The Trade Checklist
Late is the hour and waning are the moments you have left before the Sandman comes to take you away. You open your Sleeper App with just enough time to tuck in each of your rosters for bedtime, looking at each of your players with pride and joy. Overwhelmed with the worry of losing everything you fought so hard to build, you contemplate on how to best protect them. From the crack of the doorway, you whisper to yourself, “Perhaps there’s a wee bit of luck left for me to squeeze out of today. I’ll send a trade to elevate my squad to new heights and secure my future!”
Before You Click Accept
The Best Lessons Are Often Painful Ones
Late is the hour and waning are the moments you have left before the Sandman comes to take you away. You open your Sleeper App with just enough time to tuck in each of your rosters for bedtime, looking at each of your players with pride and joy. Overwhelmed with the worry of losing everything you fought so hard to build, you contemplate on how to best protect them. From the crack of the doorway, you whisper to yourself, “Perhaps there’s a wee bit of luck left for me to squeeze out of today. I’ll send a trade to elevate my squad to new heights and secure my future!”
Unfortunately, it has been a far too common experience of mine that instead of falling asleep knowing that my teams are safe and sound, I stay up until the witching hour concocting some ungodly Faustian bargains, and by morning I am filled with nothing but bewilderment and regret. Can you relate? Me neither. But for many others, one of the most difficult hurdles to overcome is recalling the key lessons we have learned amid trade talks. The following is a collection of some of the most painful lessons I have learned from negotiating:
1) Do Not Trade during Date Night - Do not try executing a trade agreement when your attention is needed elsewhere and you can be easily distracted. Negotiating takes mental energy so be clear-headed, alert, and do not rush the process. Do not make deals late at night when you’re slipping in and out of consciousness - no one has ever made a good decision after midnight.
2) Do Not Sell Light - If you are trading away top assets for draft capital, make sure that you are receiving difference-making 1st round picks (1.01-1.06) that have a higher likelihood of return for your investment.
3) Talk Through the Trade - There's no drawback to negotiating a trade through succinct and respectful dialogue. This includes:
Asking your trade partner if they are interested in a trade. If they are, what pieces are they most willing to trade away and receive?
Making an initial offer that is fair (close to market value).
Making a final offer that you can live with.
That’s it. Table discussions and thank the manager for their time if a deal isn’t made.
Negotiations do not need to be drawn-out interactions where every ounce of value is squeezed out of the deal. Sending an offer before proper discourse is made can lead to some bad deals filled with regret. Do not be too eager!
4) Use KeepTradeCut, Startup ADP, FantasyCalc, & The Lab - Say what you want about their trade calculator, but KTC’s dynasty rankings are one of the best resources we have when it comes to the market value of players (almost 13 million crowdsourced data points). Equally as informative is access to the latest startup ADP data from paid leagues. Understanding the market is crucial in trades and requires having access to the latest and greatest data sets for determining value. You don’t always have to agree with a player’s consensus value but the farther you diverge from consensus the more risk you invite. If you would rather inform your decision-making based on actual trades instead of rankings or calculators, FantasyCalc and The Lab tool at South Harmon are fantastic resources.
5) Seek a 2nd Opinion - We can often get carried away with our trades and easily lose sight of some pivotal considerations. Having someone you can go to for an unbiased opinion before you click accept is a game changer.
6) Hold Your 1st Round Picks - The previous article on Passive Trading lays out an argument for not trading any of next year's 1st until later into the season. It also should be reiterated that having a plethora of 1sts shouldn’t suggest having a looser grip on them either. The only exception to trading your 1sts early (which are both covered in Proactive Trading) is the chance at a top 3 draft pick or in a deal that lands you an elite QB. Otherwise, exercise pick restraint.
7) Conduct A Roster Inspection - Do a thorough roster assessment of the team attached to the pick you are trading away. Proper roster construction will be covered in a later article, but it’s advised to consider the likely finish of a team before you trade away their 1st.
8) Can It Wait? - One of the more nuanced items on this checklist, which once again involves knowledge of the market, is asking yourself “Do I NEED to do this trade now OR can this trade wait for later on in the season?” Very rarely do the players that we target in trades rise to such a value throughout the season that they become cost-prohibitive. Often the player either retains or loses value. The only asset that is guaranteed to rise in value is a draft pick for the upcoming class. But even if you wait on a player that you are unable to acquire later, there are likely other players in a similar tier that could be considered for trades as well.
9) Be Balanced - This is one of the hardest principles to wade through because we do not have a crystal ball. There are plenty of people in the fantasy space who can cite a million ways a player will either fail dramatically or set the fantasy world on fire, but finding someone who can do both is as rare as a unicorn. With so many factors that hang in the balance for players (talent, team situation, coaching, competition, injuries, etc.) I try my best to operate within a framework that weighs the known obstacles and historical likelihood for certain outcomes of players. Taking this measured approach not only fends off views that are largely negative or hopium-driven but also makes room to appreciate the players who overcome the insane odds to become truly great.
10) Be Informed - Much of what I advocate is based upon individuals building their own process and analysis to discover what is meaningful on their fantasy football journeys. When one chooses to walk the Way of the Degenerate, there is a large time commitment that leads to understanding and discernment - This is the Way. A massive component of my process is the rookie and re-draft rankings I develop for the upcoming season. Completing your work without rushing the process can ensure a larger measure of confidence in all your fantasy decisions, including your trade deals.
11) Sleep On It - I can’t advise strongly enough how important it is to wait 24 hours to allow the trade to marinate in your mind before clicking accept. Being overly eager to get a deal done or trading out of panic never ends positively. In the same vein, do not fall victim to the used-car salesman who is pressuring you into making a deal on the spot. Showing your resolve to be patient could very well result in the other manager becoming impatient and offering a more favorable deal you can accept with confidence.
Conclusion
In a game that is won by the slightest of margins, having a process to aid in your decision-making and a checklist that you can quickly refer to can mean the difference between losing or winning it all. But even with all of that said, it’s pivotal to give yourself grace. You can have a mountain of knowledge and confidence in your system and still come up short. The high degree of chance that is involved in this game is what makes it both so frustrating and gratifying. Take any advantage you can get and look forward to tomorrow being a better day.
