Riches and Ruin

Rookie Value Insulation

Hanna - “Number one rule of Wall Street. Nobody... and I don't care if you're Warren Buffet or if you're Jimmy Buffet. Nobody knows if a stock is gonna go up, down, sideways, or in fucking circles. Least of all, stockbrokers, right? It’s all a fugazi. You know what a fugazi is?”

Belfort - “Fugayzi, it's a fake.”

Hanna - “Fugayzi, fugazi. It's a whazy. It's a woozie. It's fairy dust. It doesn't exist. It's never landed. It is no matter. It's not on the elemental chart. It's not fucking real.“

The Wolf Of Wall Street

The Rookie Stock Exchange

Once a year, the nation of dynasty managers gather together to pay tribute and offer up sacrifices in hopes of a fruitful season for their rosters. At the center of this festival looms an overwhelming structure. The marble facade boasts a colonnade design that towers high into the sky, reflecting brilliantly in the sunlight. At the precipice of the entrance, you take a deep breath… and then you are plunged into a world of chaos. Welcome to the Rookie Stock Exchange.

Staring at you are 11 other managers, most of them pissed off for how long they have had to wait before the ritual could begin. But it isn’t long until the shriek of the ceremonial bell echoes throughout the exchange, signaling the beginning of the draft. Immediately you are swallowed up in a frenzy of pushing, shoving, and screaming. “I’ll take Jermaine Burton at the 3.05!” one manager shouts. “Give me Rasheen Ali at the 5.06!!!” another exclaims. Looking up, you see numbers, names, green arrows, and red arrows scrolling across the walls: 2.05 - Ricky Pearsall ↑, 2.06 - Adonai Mitchell ↓, 2.09 - Troy Franklin ↓, 3.01 - Ben Sinnott ↑. Armed with their Sleeper apps, they angrily send each other trade offers, desperately seeking a seat at the draft table. Speed is the most important characteristic to surviving this Tasmanian affair. They drown themselves under a torrent of communications: Press Releases, Beat Reporters, YouTube, Twitter, you name it! They piece together nuances and subtle changes in the flow of information, all to catch trends and try to predict what will happen in the rookie exchange market. Fortunes are made or lost because of information or the lack of it.

All Good Things… 

Buried beneath the spectacle of our rookie drafts is the inescapable truth: all things eventually come to an end. For some rookie prospects, this certainty unfortunately occurs all too quickly. In an effort of self-preservation, we weigh out the costs and benefits of our draft pick investments, wondering to ourselves, “Is this draft pick the next Justin Jefferson or the next Jalen Reagor?” The rookie market is a rollercoaster of value fluctuations that can occur soon after a prospect’s name is announced at the NFL Draft. The most intriguing aspect of this process is that some rookies can withstand negative situations better than others. This is known in the dynasty community as Value Insulation.

There are a ton of assumptions that are widely spouted in the dynasty community revolving around rookie value insulation. “QBs maintain their value better than any other position,” “WRs are a safer bet than RBs,” or “TEs take 2-3 years before they start returning value.” But if you have been reading my articles long enough, you’ll come to understand that I hardly have any faith in what a lot of people say (especially without the research to back it up). I need to look into things myself.

The Setup

To discover the hidden truths behind this phenomenon, I began my research with the consensus rookie ADP of SuperFlex drafts from 2020-2023 (which you can view in the Dynasty Blues article). I split these four draft classes into two groups: the first group of prospects each arranged by their respective ADP and the second group arranged by position. Using KTC, I logged their positional ranking one week after their NFL draft as a baseline. From there, I measured their positional ranking at seven more critical junctures: the beginning of the NFL Preseason, week 1 of the NFL Regular Season, week 8, week 16, the following NFL Draft (1 year after the baseline), and the subsequent drafts for the following two years (2 & 3 years after baseline). Recording the positional rankings and value fluctuations at each of these dates, I originally attempted to track every pick and prospect of each class. Slowly realizing that this project would take forever to complete, and that no one gives a shit about 3rd and 4th-round rookies, I settled for tracking only 1st round prospects. Beginning with rookie insulation by draft slot, here are my findings:

Early-Round Rookie Picks

• Picks 1.01-1.03 are pretty locked in to accrue value until at least week 8 of the NFL Season.

• The 1.04 is more dependent than the 1.01-1.03 upon early production returns to guarantee value retention. Managers with this type of investment are likely more susceptible to panic selling if the players in this range do not produce early.

Mid-Round Rookie Picks

• Mid-1sts are even more dependent upon early production and positive market sentiment. Often, these players are in a clear tier below the elite prospects, making them a lot easier to move down or flip for proven veterans. Many of these players lose value since the draft, but can often see massive value gained if they are producing by the midway point of the season.

Late-Round Rookie Picks

• Late-1st prospects are perhaps the least susceptible to massive value changes (negative or positive), making them some of the “safest” bets of the first round. Given the mild capital investment, there is less pressure on these players to produce early, making it easier for managers to hold them. With so much hype focused on the top 6-8 picks, we often see talented players with imperfect profiles fall to this range, making them an immense value and some of the best steals in the draft.

Other Key Takeaways

• The most critical time for rookies is 1-year after they are drafted and how they stack up with the next incoming class. Managers with rookies who didn’t produce their freshman season or have negative public perception will look to trade to recoup some of the lost value. 

• About 3/4’s of rookie picks will lose value between the end of year 1 and year 2.  

• If a player has lost value after year 1, only about 1/4 of rookie picks recover and accrue value from year 2 into year 3, making them a risky bet.

• Outside of a disastrous season, most players retain their draft-day value throughout their first season. 

• But only about 1/4 of rookie picks will hit and continue to maintain or accrue value throughout their first three seasons in the league.

Tracking the value insulation of certain picks is only half the story. What can we learn if we view this same data by position?

Rookie Value Insulation By Position

• We are in a TE renaissance, where 1st-round ADP TEs are the safest bets on hitting (more on this in the previous article Dynasty Blues) and value insulation. This is likely due to how few great TEs there are in the dynasty landscape and how highly ranked so many begin their careers.  

• Most positions on average suffer a value loss after year one because 3/4‘s of prospects across the board fall in the rankings.

• WRs are the toughest bets to make, likely due to how difficult it is for prospects to break into the elite category early on in their career (see the Positional Volatility article for more on this). It doesn’t help that WR is the deepest position with the lowest hit-rate percentage either. 

• The best thing WRs have going for them is that they can have the best return early in their career if they hit. 

• RBs are the prospects that can shine twice as bright as any other position in their first season, but their value is sadly all but guaranteed to fall after year one.

• QBs are a relatively safe bet given their scarcity, but managers will often mirror the NFL and look to quickly move on from them if they don’t show promise by year two.

Other Key Takeaways

• Outside of players like J.K. Dobbins and Cam Akers, who suffered devastating injuries early in their careers, nearly every prospect fell in the rankings due to play, not injuries.

• The best time to sell rookies is during the fantasy playoffs. As a prospect’s freshman campaign comes to a close, managers will have a good idea of rookie values and will look to acquire promising assets heading into the next season.

• The best time to buy ascending rookies is between weeks 3-4 of the first season. At this point, there is just enough production data on players to make calculated wagers and get a last-minute seat on a rocket ship before it leaves the stratosphere.  

When Is A Gift Not A Gift?

The rookie voice is rising, but realizing how few of them become meaningful contributors to your dynasty squads can be quite sobering. Building off the concept of Hit-Rates (Dynasty Blues), this article sought to discover how long these rookies could maintain their positional ranking. From the moment you click “DRAFT,” a countdown commences. Over the next year, your investment will be relatively safe. But after a year, there will be a turning point (as shown below) where you’ll have to decide to either hold or sell your asset. Knowing that only 25% of these rookies will enjoy continued success should signal to sell more often and sooner than we think. Rarely do prospects like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Justin Jefferson, and Ja’Marr Chase come along and maintain their position for many years. 

With how addicted to young talent the dynasty community is, it won’t be hard to present to your leaguemates with a “special opportunity,” a new scenario, another stock for them to invest their valuable assets into (and then some). Many managers will be willing to pay the iron price after one year because they believe they have seen enough to make a “safe” investment. While these managers believe they are making their teams better in the long run, the brokers (who are liquidating) are doubling or tripling their investments in this racket. Outside of acquiring the future 1sts of poorly-constructed teams, there is no other more profitable strategy in the dynasty than selling over-hyped rookies after their freshman season. This doesn’t work if you’re incapable of scouting rookie talent or can’t continually replenish your war chests with 1st-round picks through trading.

For this reason, I have devoted all the previous articles of this off-season to trading and rookie evaluation. To the rest of your leaguemates, your roster should look like an amusement park filled with excitement and intrigue. Keep them returning with season passes through amicable trading and the moment they want to get off the ride to head home, show them a new attraction they can try. 

The Dossier

Riddles In The Dark

Rookie Research For The 2024 Class - Part III

The quest stands upon the edge of a knife. Stray but a little, and it will fail, to the ruin of all.

Galadriel - Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring

Dynasty is Changed

It all began with the forging of YouTube. Some channels were given to the Film Scouts; discerning, headstrong, and admired above all others. Other channels, to the Data Lords, great miners of analytics and craftsmen of regression tables. And the rest were gifted to the race of Content Creators, who above all else desire Underdog sponsorships. One by one, they released videos on the 2024 Rookie class, fighting over Drake Maye and ranking the Big 3.

But deep in the land of Ohio, in the color-coded cells of an Excel spreadsheet, is forged a master ranking. Into this document is poured the chutzpah, the fanaticism, and the big brains to dominate all other takes. One process to rule them all.  

Smoke rises from the City of Detroit, the hour grows late, and you ride to South Harmon seeking how high I have Tyrone Tracy Jr. ranked. For that is why you have come, is it not?

The Draft has a Will of its Own

In the years I have researched rookies, there’s never been a draft like this one. The 2024 class is bursting with offensive talent and the information available is an embarrassment of riches. But despite our wealth of resources, there is little consensus on the highly-touted prospects.  With such immense stakes in our rookie drafts, the tensions are high for dynasty managers.  To anchor myself before the looming storm of the draft, I investigated the process of NFL decision-makers and scouts (which you can read about in my previous two articles). In researching their evaluation of prospects, I don’t believe the key for us is to jump on hype-trains or kick people off before players become great; a lot of that is luck. It’s about being familiar enough with prospects so that IF they become great, you aren’t surprised. There is so much insight from great minds in the NFL and fantasy space. Exploring new topics and viewpoints can be like discovering a treasure map. You can’t make gold, all you can do is make yourself more open to finding it.

Regional Scout For The South Harmon Shitters

The following players I am highlighting are my favorite bets based on their discounted ADP, their scores in my process, and the attention they have garnered from film analysts. And now, here are the heroes that will shape the fortunes of this draft.

WR

Xavier Legette - In a process that looks to strike gold with discounted players who have unique journeys, there is no prospect I am pulling for more than Xavier Legette. As a 4-Star recruit out of Mullins, SC he was asked to sacrifice playing WR and led his high school as their QB his senior season. Like many players, Xavier’s first season in college was cut short by COVID. The following season he managed 11 games despite being involved in a motorcycle accident. Legette’s ability to persevere through adversity unfortunately came through the tragic loss of both his parents (his mother passed away in 2015 and his father in 2019). With the support of his three siblings, Xavier’s hard work finally paid off with a dominant fifth year at South Carolina. 

Xavier Legette’s athleticism is the first thing that jumps out. His 4.34 40-yard dash (97th percentile) and 119-speed score (98th) at 221 lbs are insane. He is 1/4 players to land a 99th percentile Game Athleticism Score from PFF alongside Malik Nabers, Xavier Worthy, and Adonai Mitchell. His ability to convert slants and flat routes into house calls in the blink of an eye is truly stunning. Legette’s elite speed paired with his 40” vertical to high-point balls at an impressive 47.6% rate in contested situations is a formidable combination.

But despite all of his giftings as an athlete, Xavier Legette isn’t a route-running technician that can compete with the elites of the NFL. His 19th percentile success rate versus man coverage will halt the notion that he’ll dominate as an X day 1 in the NFL. Drafting a WR that can break into the top 12/24 producers in the NFL is the biggest longshot amongst all offensive positions given how dominant the established vets are in the league. If I draft a long-shot player at a difficult position, he must be a high-upside player like Xavier Legette. The main determining factor for his success will be his development as a route runner (similar path as DK Metcalf) and his landing spot. Legette has already met with 14 teams during the Draft Process, including the Pittsburgh Steelers and the San Francisco 49ers. Kyle Shanahan is amongst the best in the league at creatively deploying unique pass-catching weapons. Seeing Legette deployed in motion alongside other explosive players like Aiyuk, Deebo, Kittle, and CMC would be a fantasy dream come true. If I swing at a WR after the Big 3, I am more than willing to draft Xavier Legette six to eight slots ahead of his current 2.09 ADP.   

Ricky Pearsall - The 2024 WR class may be one of the best we have seen in years because of the plethora of physical X-receivers alongside some athletically gifted players who operate mainly out of the slot. But if a player is limited to one role, perfection is the standard in the NFL. What sticks out to me about Ricky Pearsall is that he excels in various alignments all over the field. Ricky is not a player who stands out with production, but his athletic testing certainly does. Pearsall ran a 4.41 at the combine (90th percentile), had a 135.9 burst score (98th), a 10.69 agility score (97th), and a 10.44 catch radius (99th), which shows up in one of the best catches of the year. 

NFL Scouts will fall in love with his diverse usage, vice-grips for hands, and overall dependability in key situations. He also showcased his explosiveness and fluidity with the fastest 3-cone drill at this year’s Scouting Combine (6.64 seconds). Like Xavier Legette, Ricky Pearsall has also garnered the attention of the Pittsburgh Steelers. They met with Pearsall at the Combine and brought him for a Top 30 visit. I can envision him filling the Diontae Johnson void in the Steel City. Ricky Pearsall is a player worth a gamble in the mid-2nd round of rookie drafts, far ahead of his current 3.01 ADP.

Honorable Mention 

Adonai Mitchell - One of the most intriguing prospects in this year’s crop of WRs is AD Mitchell. He may be one of the very few I am willing to draft at cost (1.11) despite his production red flags. In terms of key metrics for this class, AD was 21st in PPG (10.76 pts), 26th in Target % (18.1%), 2nd worst (33rd) in TPRR (17.5%), 31st in Y/RR (1.79 yds), and ranked 28th in contested catches (3 for 33.3%). But I’m fascinated with how much Mitchell is challenging my process, especially in terms of film.

Adonai is Steve Smith Sr. and Hayden Wink’s 6th ranked WR, Brett Kollman’s 4th best, and is in the 3rd Tier of prospects since 2021 for Matt Harmon. On top of being one of the favorites of analysts I respect, Mitchell has one of the best athletic profiles in this class. His 4.34 40-yard dash and 117.1 speed score are in the 97th percentile, coupled with a 135.2 burst score (96th), 10.29 catch radius (92nd), and a 99th percentile GAS rating from PFF. Given what scouts most covet in a WR, Adonai’s speed, separation, fluidity, body control, and usage as an outside WR stand out as unique in a class filled with other special players. In terms of explaining his lack of production, I can understand that his role as a purely X-receiver on the line, running down the field at a 16-yard aDOT on mainly nine and dig routes, and fielding passes from an inconsistent QB will negatively impact production. And in keeping with the WR trend, Mitchell has met with the Pittsburgh Steelers multiple times. The possibility of AD being paired with another down-field threat in Pickens is very intriguing.  

RB

Audric Estime - Ranked securely in my top 5, Audric Estime is one of the most complete RBs in this class. Anyone who has watched Audric from an endzone view will immediately notice his exceptional play in gap runs. He displays a remarkable feel around the line of scrimmage in the way he patiently follows behind his line and his ability to manipulate incoming defenders. This is further highlighted by the fact that Estime faced more heavy boxes (7 or more defenders in the box pre-snap) than any other RB in college and was only behind Isaiah Davis in terms of efficiency (nearly 6.5 YPC versus heavy boxes). Despite this opposition, no one was more productive than Estime last year (class high 21.26 PPG).  At 5’11 and 221 lbs, Audric has the ideal size of a productive NFL back. Estime’s ability to run with such authority “is indicative of a confident grasp of his schematic responsibilities” (Noah Hills) and why I believe scouts are so intrigued with him (most team meetings throughout the draft process of any RB). The number of team meetings may not seem like a big deal, but Daniel Jeremiah states, “The success of a player is directly correlated to the number of points of contact teams have with that player, their exposure, & taking advantage of having as many interactions with them as possible to get a feel for who the player is.” 

However, the major reason Estime is on this list is that players like him are why I want to go beyond relying purely on analytics when evaluating players. The fantasy community is pushing down players like him, Bucky Irving, and Blake Corrum after their average to poor 40 times. But would these same people change their minds if they knew that Bucky was tied for the most plays with the fastest GPS-tracked times in all of college football last year (5 times) and that Blake was right behind Bucky (4 times)? And despite a horrendous 4.71 at the combine (17th percentile), Estime was tracked running 20.9 mph in week 2 of 2023. He’s explosive enough to have 38 carries of 10+ yards (5th best in class), 22 carries of 15+ yards (3rd best), 5.33 missed forced tackles/game (5th best), and 4.27 yards after contact/attempt (3rd best). Keon Coleman had the fastest gauntlet speed of any receiver over the last season (20.36 mph) despite a 4.61 40-yard time (26th percentile). Reminiscent of Puca, Keon is faster when the ball is in the air and in his hands. If the film or production doesn’t match up with testing, it should push you to dig deeper. 

Ray Davis - A player getting a lot of interest amongst NFL Teams (3rd most team meetings among RBs) but little love in the fantasy community is ultra-productive Kentucky RB Re'Mahn “Ray” Davis. Scoring the most points of any RB I researched, leaving him off this list wasn’t an option for me. What I like most about Ray Davis is his duel-threat ability as a runner and a pass-catching weapon. He averaged 19.2 routes/G (6th best in class) and had a 10.4% target share (2nd best). As a rusher, he handled a 58.7% share of carries (2nd best) and had by far the best dominator rating amongst his peers (19.9%).  On film, Ray demonstrated a lively, quick, and aggressive style of play, with his best runs coming on zone concepts where he often made defenders miss and could power through would-be tacklers. The biggest downsides to Ray Davis’ profile are his age (already an old man at 24 years old) and his lack of athleticism compared to other RBs. But given the short window we give RBs anyway, the 4.02 cost is easy to swallow.    

Honorable Mention

Blake Corum - Blake Corum is the most obvious steal of the draft. As one of the best RBs in the country throughout most of his career, his relatively down season last year and the questions surrounding his knee injury have scared off many fantasy managers. As concerning as it is to come back from a torn meniscus, a grade II MCL sprain, and a “deep” bone bruise, I encourage any reader to look into the track record of players who recovered from similar injuries. Blake’s treatment, age, and physical ability should inspire confidence that he can fully recover and play at the same level before his injury. A year further removed from his knee injury should return some of the lost explosiveness he suffered last year while recovering. No other RB this year can teach a Masterclass on vision, instinct, and decision-making with as little wasted movement as Corum. And while Estime faced the most 7-man boxes in 2023, Blake was by far and away met with the most 8+ man-boxes last season (109 carries). This and Michigan’s unrelenting commitment to the running game provides some context to Corum’s down season. With the ability to run in various schemes, Blake's compact frame (5’8” & 205 lbs) is ideal for running and passing situations. You won’t find a cheaper potential number-one RB than this year’s Blake Corum at a 2.06 ADP.

TE

Ben Sinnott - Of all the players in rookie drafts this year, Ben Sinnott is the most undervalued prospect by ADP (currently the 4.06). In the same way, my process pointed to Sam LaPorta as the TE1 in last year’s class, I am fully confident Ben Sinnott is neck and neck with Brock Bowers as the TE1 in 2024. At 6’4” and 250 lbs he is an inch taller and 7 pounds heavier than Brock Bowers. At the Combine, he cleared the critical 4.70 threshold we look for in elite TEs with a 4.68 40-yard dash (76th percentile). He also had a 133 burst score (98th), 11.05 agility score, and 10.36 catch radius (95th), which resulted in a 9.73 RAS Score. He is the only TE in history besides Vernon Davis to clear a 40+ inch vertical at the combine weighing 250. RAS Scores for TEs are the closest thing we have in the analytics world to a magic bullet, and Sinnott’s RAS is good enough to rank him 33rd all-time out of 1116 TEs dating back to 1987. That ranks him ahead of athletic freaks like Pitts, Kelce, Kittle, Gronkowski, Njoku, Engram, and LaPorta.    

But what separates Ben Sinnott from other gifted TEs like Theo Johnson (who we’ll get to later) and places him in a tier closer to Bowers is his college production and versatility. Sinnott ranked 2nd in PPG (behind Bowers) amongst TEs in this class, 1st in receiving yards share (21.6%), 2nd in receiving yards/team pass attempt (1.59), and 2nd in receiving snaps (332). Pairing this with an ability to line up at fullback, H-Back, at the Y in 11 personnel, and F in 12 personnel is why Ben Sinnott has the 2nd most meetings with teams amongst TEs so far through the pre-draft cycle. He should be going a full round ahead of where he is currently being selected in rookie drafts.

Honorable Mention

Theo Johnson - After running a 4.57 40 at the combine and qualifying for the 9th-best RAS score of all time, Theo Johnson has met with more teams than any other TE throughout the draft process. He may not have the greatest production but with a current 4.08 ADP in rookie drafts, the risk is extremely low on a prospect with truly ridiculous athletic ability.

Questions that Need Answering

To conclude this article, I have disclosed below my precious research, to which I am bound to its fate. Keep it secret, keep it safe.

One important caveat to note with this research: the scores and rankings are based purely on production, athletic testing, and the rankings of experts. My rankings won’t come about until after the NFL Draft. The “Premium Score” is based solely on the metrics I discussed in my previous article, whereas the “Overall Score” includes many other data points. The red scores are guestimation due to missing athletic testing.

The Dossier

Works Cited:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lVkAulGqSrM&t=366s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N2tYS6DCcAs&t=366s

What If He Could Be THE ONE?

Rookie Research For The 2024 Class - Part II

Like sifting sand through a screen, we sift people.

Reverend Mother Mohiam - Dune

The Secret Society of Scouts

As a powerful ancient order, the Scouts’ influence on steering NFL franchises can not be measured due to their shadow of secrecy. Carefully analyzing thousands of prospects across hundreds of schools, they meticulously develop a network of informants that spans the entire world of football. Being worthy of such responsibility requires great sacrifice and time discipline. For nine months straight and 16 hours a day, scouts dedicate themselves to travel and gathering intel, enduring great monotony and isolation. It is arguably the most difficult and important position in the NFL. Driving this group is one simple maxim they live by: We don't hope, we plan. And their plans are measured over many years in case their prospects fail their promise. Their power comes from the ability to breach space and time as they look to the past to help their organizations into a better future. 

Researching the craft and dedication of NFL Scouts was nothing short of awe-inspiring. Assigned to a region of the country, college scouts are responsible for evaluating 300 to 400 draft-eligible players. They must travel to every school with NFL-worthy talent regardless of how many and far apart those schools are. Only 1.6% of draft-eligible players (257/16,000+) will be selected with the precious few picks most teams have. This intense process begins with breaking down the film because nothing translates better to success in the NFL than what a player does in pads. But the biggest secret behind the success of a scout comes from their ability to see things beneath the surface of a prospect. The process becomes an extremely comprehensive interview. The biggest difference between the NFL world and Fantasy Football is how much scouts weigh a player’s fit for their teams and the brand of football they want to build. This comes down to how a player fits a specific role. A player has to fit what a team is already doing or the team has to be willing to adapt to a player’s strengths and weaknesses. Talented and productive players will fall to the dismay of fantasy managers if they don’t fit exactly what NFL teams seek. But the payoff for scouts after a long journey is standing on the table, fighting to draft a player they believe in, and seeing that prospect help them win games. So what can we learn from NFL Scouts to improve our rookie evaluations?

Veterans of the Psychic Wars

Though my wife would argue otherwise, I do not devote the same amount of ungodly hours to researching prospects, nor do I have the same level of access scouts have. But the journey to developing my process began where all scout’s stories end - The NFL Draft.

For a long time, my favorite day of the year wasn’t Christmas, my birthday, or even the Super Bowl. It was getting wings with my older brother at Eddie George’s in the heart of Ohio State campus on High Street during the NFL Draft. Once a year, all of our knowledge came to a head with an epic three-hour showdown of who could best place themselves in the shoes of NFL decision-makers. But ultimately, it was a test for the gifting of prophecy. Through these years of hard-fought mental battles with my brother, my football senses were trained and tested. This process and my views have evolved, but in essence, haven’t changed.

My rookie research can be broken down into four categories:

• College Production: The process begins with what a rookie did in college under the simple guise that a player who couldn't perform highly at the college level has a snowball’s chance in hell at surviving in the pros. We will get into soon what exactly this looks like.

• Athletic Testing: “Athleticism may be more than enough in college, but it isn’t enough in the NFL. Everyone in the NFL is the best of the best.” - Daniel Jeremiah. A prospect’s ability is best measured through watching their tape because football is what they dedicate themselves to performing at a high level.

• Draft Capital: Draft capital is useful in the same way dynasty startup ADP is useful - it reflects how A LOT of people value a player. A player passed on by all 32 organizations multiple times and falls to day 3 says something. I do not advocate going against ADP or challenging the process of NFL teams when the stakes are high. I advocate the willingness to go out on a limb when the risk is low.

• Landing Spot: The final component of my rookie process is the one I am pushing myself the most on learning. Some of the best-projected prospects failed on Sunday because their teams lacked the resources and understanding of who they were as players to help them succeed. This component goes beyond looking at depth charts, supporting casts, and schemes. It’s about vision for a player. The vision for these prospects begins with scouts.

“Scouting is about elimination as much as discovery.” - Alan Wolking

In the previous article, I discussed keeping an eye out for prospects with special traits, recognizing which organizations have a reputation for getting the best out of their players and paying attention to the coverage of NFL War Rooms. Regardless of whether you utilize these edges, it’s essential to remember that NFL teams are working with the same baseline of college production for these prospects as we are.

A good process goes beyond production, testing, and projections. There is no magic bullet, no predictive metric, or any measure of certainty. At best, we have strong guesses and ranges of likelihoods. Grading is putting together a puzzle where you can barely make out the picture on the box. But this reality doesn’t diminish our pursuit to sharpen our practices. The main goal is to see things others are not seeing because ultimately we want a competitive edge where we can benefit massively from low-risk bets. 

To sift through rookie prospects, my research involves 70+ metrics, but since I wish to spare my readers from being waterboarded with dry data, we will only focus on the key categories for each position.

Unsung Heroes

My spreadsheets are populated by every offensive prospect invited to the Senior Bowl, Shrine Bowl, and Scouting Combine. The majority of stats in my process have been informed by Mike Liu (@MiKeMeUpP), Drew Osinchuk (@DFBeanCounter), Peter Howard (@pahowdy), Jake Estes (@dynasty_jake), Ian Miller (@dynasty_im), and Jacob Sanderson (@JakobSanderson). But missing from my approach to rookies was understanding the various “whys” behind football that can only be understood through watching film. I am at the very beginning of my journey into the X’s & O’s and the context behind schemes, so I am leaning on the expertise of J.T. O’Sullivan (@jt_osullivan), Lanze Zierlein (@LanceZierlein), Steve Smith Sr. (@SteveSmithSr89), Brett Kollmann (@BrettKollmann), Noah Hills (@noahmoreparties), Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks), and Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB). 

Before I began my research, I wanted to know how well the metrics I used for rookies translated to finding the top fantasy performers (PPG) already in the NFL from 2023. Here is what I found with what I am calling Premium Metrics:

Quarterbacks (the elite tier is out of 14 QBs because of the three-way tie for 12th in PPG last season)

• QBR: 9/14 of the highest-scoring QBs in fantasy (64.29%) had the best QBRs in the NFL in 2023. Jayden Daniels (95.6), Bo Nix (91.2), and J.J. McCarthy (88.2) have the best QBRs in this year’s class.

• PFF Passing Grade: 8/14 (57.14%) of NFL QBs last season. Bo Nix (92.7), Jayden Daniels (92), and Michael Penix Jr. (90.6) have the top passer ratings according to PFF.

• aDOT: 8/14 (57.14%) of 2023 NFL QBs. Michael Penix Jr. (11.4), Michael Pratt (11.1), Drake Maye (11), and Devin Leary (11) have the highest aDOT.  

• Rushing TDs: 9/14 (64.29%) of last year’s top fantasy QBs. Caleb Williams (11), Jayden Daniels (10), and Drake Maye (9) have the most rushing TDs.

• J.T. O’Sullivan: Caleb Williams (1st), Jayden Daniels (2nd), J.J. McCarthy (3rd)

From a Scout’s perspective, accuracy, decision-making, and poise are the bedrock of every QB evaluation according to Daniel Jeremiah. Other factors include play-making ability, operating outside the structure of a play when it breaks down, pre-snap recognition, and manipulating defenses.

Running Backs

• Routes/g: 8/12 of the top fantasy RBs (66.67%) had the most routes/g in the NFL in 2023. Emani Baily (24), Bucky Irving (23.6), and Rasheen Ali (21.3) lead all rookie RBs.

• Target Share: 7/12 (58.33%) of the best fantasy RBs led their position in TGT%. Frank Gore Jr. (9.9%), Rasheen Ali (9.7%), and George Holani (9.4%) are the top target earners in this class.

• Dominator: 7/12 (58.33%) of veteran RBs last season. Ray Davis (19.9%), Frank Gore Jr. (14.8%), and Keilan Robinson (10.3%) have the highest dominator among RB prospects.

• Evaded Tackles/g: 7/12 (58.33%). Unfortunately, I could not find this stat tracked amongst college athletes, so I settled for the next best thing with Missed Forced Tackles/g. Kimani Vidal (6.75), Jonathan Brooks (6.3), and Emani Bailey (5.83) lead this category.

• Snap Share: 8/12 (66.67%). Once again, I could not find this metric for rookie prospects, so I compromised using Carry Share. Kimani Vidal (61.11%), Ray Davis (58.7%), and Dillon Johnson (56.69%) have the top carry shares.

• Lance Zierlein: Jonathan Brooks (1st), Jaylen Wright (2nd), and Trey Benson (3rd).

• Noah Hills: Blake Corum (1st), Jonathan Brooks (2nd), Audric Estime (3rd).

Wide Receivers

• Target Share: 10/12 of the best WRs in fantasy last year (83.33%) led the NFL in target percentage. Malik Washington (34.8%), Malik Nabers (31.1%), and Marvin Harrison Jr. (30.9%) have the highest Tgt % in this year’s class.

• Targets Per Route Run: 9/12 (75%) of the top vet WRs. Malachi Corley (32.5%), Marvin Harrison Jr. (32.4%), and Malik Washington (31.4%) have the best TPRR amongst rookies.

• Yards Per Route Run: 6/12 (50%) in NFL. Malik Nabers (3.81), Ladd McConkey (3.62), and Troy Franklin (3.55).

• Contested Catches (Total & Rate): 7/12 (58.33%). Rome Odunze (17 (70.8%)), Luke McCaffrey (17 (64.7%)), and Marvin Harrison Jr. (13 (43.3%)).

• Matt Harmon Average of Success Rate Percentiles (Man Coverage Percentile): So far, Rome Odunze (87% Avg Success Rate (87th Man)), Marvin Harrison Jr. (83% Avg (83rd Man)), Malik Nabers (69% Avg (84th Man)).

• Matt Harmon Prospect Tiers 2021-2024: So far, Marvin Harrison Jr. (Tier 1 ( #1 Prospect Overall)), Rome Odunze (Tier 1 (#3 Overall), Malik Nabers (Tier 1 (#8 Overall).

• PFF Game Athleticism Score (GAS): 28/33 NFL starters have >= 80th percentile PFF GAS (84.85%). 20/33 starters have >= 90th percentile PFF GAS (60.61%). This is a new athleticism metric, mentioned by Hayden Winks when discussing the top WRs in this class. Malik Nabers (99th percentile), Adonai Mitchell (99th), Xavier Worthy (99th), Xavier Legette (99th)

  You can read all about it here: https://www.pff.com/news/pff-announces-new-pff-game-athleticism-score-pff-gas

For Scouts, the critical factors for a wide receiver include route running, hands, and run-after-catch ability. But for 13-year Philadelphia Eagles Scout Alan Wolking, “Nothing at that position, though, compares to the importance of speed. Do you play with speed? Do you have the ability to change direction, stop, and restart quickly? How do you catch the ball? And I think probably one of the more underrated traits is instincts. Like, how do you feel your surroundings once the ball’s in the air or once you have it on the ground? The prerequisite is speed. Play speed, you gotta have. And then you start peeling back the layers.”

Tight Ends

• RAS Score Above 7: 11/12 of the top fantasy TEs in 2023 (91.67%) had RAS Scores above 7, with the average RAS score being 8.66. Theo Johnson (9.93), Ben Sinnott (9.72), and Jared Wiley (9.71) have the highest RAS scores amongst rookie TEs.

• Target Share: 8/12 (66.67%) for NFL TEs. Brock Bowers (21.8%), Brevyn Spann-Ford (21.4%), and Dallin Holker (20.9%) have the highest Tgt shares in this year’s class.

• Receiving Yards Per Team Pass Attempt: 8/12 (66.67%) for NFL TEs. Theo Johnson (2.05), Ben Sinnott (1.59), and Brock Bowers (1.57).

• Yards Per Route Run: 7/12 (58.33%). Brock Bowers (2.65), Erick All (2.14), and Cade Stover (2.04).

• Receiving Snaps (Snaps they ran a route): 8/12 (66.67%). Dallin Holker (484), Ben Sinnott (332), and Jared Wiley (322). 

You can’t fight in here! This is The War Room!

There are key differences between the world of scouting in the NFL and fantasy. Exploring these differences can be a guide to developing your own process. A good place to start is by learning from the best what you are most passionate about. For me, it was the NFL Draft. But before you travel down this road, just know that rookies are perhaps the most hotly debated subject in the entire dynasty landscape. This is ironic because the most shocking aspect of the NFL Draft is how little consensus there is on players within an organization, let alone across 32 teams. Wolking states, “In many ways, the draft is a fool’s errand. You hope to be right a little more than you’re wrong and certainty is naive, so it would be silly not to take all the information into account, especially if you respect the preparation of the person presenting the information.” My main hope is that in light of any differences of opinion or process, just recognize that we all have the same goal and are on the same side.

The Dossier

Works Cited:

https://theathletic.com/1626902/2020/02/24/on-the-road-again-and-again-one-day-in-the-life-of-an-nfl-area-scout/

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/28749868/3000-nights-hotels-chain-restaurants-lots-video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B6dgx70xUG0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L9e9YOmmEak

Grading Adversity

Rookie Research For The 2024 Class - Part I

You may not look like a winning team - but you are one.

Beane - Moneyball

Coach, “Where do you think BYU goes?”

The player referred to as “BYU” is 4-star recruit Makea “Puka” Nacua out of Orem High School in Utah. He was ranked as the 8th WR in the nation and the 48th overall player after setting a multitude of Utah and national records in high school. He received offers from Oregon, UCLA, USC, and Utah to play college football, but ultimately accepted an offer to become a Washington Huskie. Puka played in the first eight games of his freshman season, catching seven passes for 168 yards and 2 TDs before breaking his foot. The following year he managed nine receptions for 151 yards and 1 TD in three games during a COVID-shortened 2020 season. After two limited seasons at Washington, Puka moved back to his hometown Provo to support his mother and family when his grandmother was diagnosed with cancer. In his first season as a Cougar, Nacua caught 43 passes for 805 yards and six touchdowns, including four 100-yard games, and 148 yards on the ground at 10.6 yards per carry. He was 2nd in the FBS with 3.44 yards per route run, 61% of his yards were on receptions 20+ yards downfield, and he was 9th in the FBS with a 16.7 average depth of target. In his final year, Puka led BYU with 65 receptions for 625 receiving yards and five touchdowns, with an additional 25 carries for 209 yards and five TDs, despite being limited by a knee injury. Diving deeper into his analytical profile, Puka was 4th in the 2023 WR Draft Class with 15.93 PPG (Tank Dell was 1st, 19.13), 1st in targets per route run at 37.9%, and he dominated for multiple years of his collegiate career. So how does a prospect like him fall to the 42nd pick in the 5th round?

Scout, “6th. I mean, the thing with BYU is he tested really poorly.”

Puka Nacua was dominant on his 1st day at the Senior Bowl before suffering a concussion, which forced him to miss the athletic testing at the NFL Scouting Combine (more on this later). His last chance to raise his draft stock would come at the BYU Pro Day. Unfortunately, Nacua did not test as well as he had hoped. He ran an average 4.57 40-yard dash (likely closer to 4.62, 25th percentile), a poor 1.62 10-yard split, and managed a 33-inch vertical jump. This culminated in a 5.17 Relative Athletic Score (RAS), ranking him 1479th out of 3062 WRs since 1987. 

The Pre-Draft circuit is a notoriously severe process for incoming rookies, with the most recent impression often catapulting or sinking a prospect’s draft stock. Poor testing, frequently “banged up” with injuries from his physical play style, and not catching the eye of major analysts on TV, Puka Nacua was projected as nothing more than an average backup or special-teamer in the final rounds of the draft.

Seeing In A Mirror Dimly

The forces at work in Dynasty Football are strikingly similar to the NFL. Replace NFL scouts with major content creators and analytics gurus in the space, Big Boards with KTC Rankings, and NFL Brass with dynasty managers, and the results are player sentiments and markets that often mirror the real-life sport. The parallels don’t end there. Professional teams that spend millions of dollars employing the best coaches, scouts, and analysts in the football world don’t fare much better in hitting on their draft selections than dynasty managers in their rookie drafts. The harsh reality is that it’s difficult to succeed in the NFL. So how can we learn from the NFL and improve grading rookie prospects? It starts with your eyes.

GM, “Well, his speed, his playing is fast. I mean if I go sort by miles per hour, he would be one of the top receivers.”

There are limits to what athletic testing can provide insight into. Despite missing the testing portion of the combine, Puka Nacua did participate in the route and catching drills. Puka had the fastest gauntlet speed of any receiver at the combine (20.06 mph), leading the GM of the Rams to conclude that Nacua was faster at catching and running with a ball than he was without one. The lesson we can learn is to trust what you see on film.

Coach, “I think this guy would be really good for us Les. I want a guy who’s going to be where he’s supposed to be, that’ll stay grounded through the catch, aggressive hands, that will dig out support in the run game. He can be an extension of the run game. This guy can be a functional piece of an offensive operation.”

Regardless if it’s in the 1st round or the 7th round, these organizations are looking for individuals who give them an edge. There is no perfect prospect; every one of them has a flaw. The key for front offices is finding that unique trait that makes them special. For us as dynasty players, it’s keeping an eye out for prospects who have that one ability that none of his peers have. 

The next component teams focus on is how they will deploy this player. Forcing a square player into a round scheme and being unaware of their strengths and weaknesses will result in a terrible situation (Quentin Johnston & Treylon Burks). Understanding that certain coaches and organizations do a far better job of developing and utilizing talent is key for us in fantasy.

GM, “He’s a tough kid. To me, he showed there’s a tenacity, and a toughness, and a fight. And if you teach him technique, he’ll be able to ball… We know you got the guy you want. You got a vision for him.” 

Coach, “Totally.” 

GM, “We’re going to nail that pick.”

Lastly, there needs to be an identity and series of goals that leadership sets for their team. Without clear vision and experience, the ship will sink once it hits the storm. The vision Los Angeles had for Puka Nacua went beyond his athletic testing - they saw how he could be a valuable contributor to the team and how he embodied the spirit of being a Ram. Paying attention to what coaches and GMs say about players during draft conferences and listening to the vision they have for their selections is key. 

As rosy as this scenario sounds, we as dynasty players don’t always have this type of access to the interview process with prospects. But we have the same baseline of college production to work with (which we will cover in Part II).

WR Coach, “You can’t measure people’s heart, their desire to play.”

Growing up wasn’t easy for Puka Nacua. His grandmother nicknamed him “Puka” when he was born, which in Samoan means, “fat and chubby." Despite a deep love of football in his family, it was not always easy to participate with his four older brothers. Wanting to play on the field with them was an invitation to getting “demolished” by his bigger and more physical siblings. Puka eventually slimmed down but the nickname stuck.

Puka Nacua's grandmother Fa'aTamali'i holding him as a newborn.

Throughout his childhood grit and determination were instilled, and from a young age his father, Lionel, recognized he would grow up to be the best. But two weeks before Puka turned 11, Lionel passed away from diabetes complications in 2012. Puka’s brothers remember seeing him frozen to the TV, watching hours upon hours of NFL football a week after their father passed. Puka wanted to follow through on the “game plan” his father envisioned for him, so football became an obsession.  

Strength became Puka’s defining characteristic of his upbringing. His source of strength came from his mother, Penina, who struggled and sacrificed to provide for her five boys and one girl. When Puka received news that his grandmother’s health was deteriorating from ovarian cancer, he transferred from Washington to BYU to be closer to his family. Puka says, "We knew what it was like to lose a parent," and wanted to make sure he could support his mother the way she did for him after his father passed. Joining BYU not only allowed Puka to play with his brother Samson (who left the Utes to play at BYU), but it also fulfilled his dad’s dream to be a Cougar. It also fulfilled the hopes of his grandmother, Fa’atamali’i Saole Tafua. Despite her health and not leaving the house much, Puka’s grandmother said she would make an exception and attend every game if he played at BYU. After being diagnosed with cancer in early 2021 his grandmother passed away in Septemeber 2021, shortly after Puka’s first season with the Cougars began. 

Taking it one day at a time amid these trials, Puka Nacua would go on to excel at BYU. He was mentored by his WR Coach, Fesi Sitake, who taught him “how to be a pro,” and also understood what it was like to lose a parent at a young age.  Under Sitake, Puka sacrificed and developed into a player who strived for a high standard. Who he is as a person and a player was luckily recognized by one of the best coaches in the NFL, Sean McVay. When asked about what set Nacua apart during the pre-draft process, McVay replied, “Everything that you’re seeing.”

Changing The Game

The human element is a major motivating factor for my investment in football. Spending countless hours researching individuals fighting for their dream opportunity can leave you feeling invested beyond how many points they can score for your fantasy team. In addition to wanting to familiarize myself with the X’s & O’s of football, I am most interested in the stories and people behind the game. In the spirit of what Billy Beane says at the end of Moneyball, “I want it to mean something.”  We are in an age of sports and information where our access to players is unlike any other previous time in history. But despite this fact, the loudest voices are everyone but the players themselves - their voice is mainly heard through what they can produce on the field. Initially, I began this article wanting to know how the LA Rams came away with the steal of the 2023 draft. But through writing this piece I discovered the real story was how Puka became the player we are witnessing today. His journey of hardhsip, being overlooked, discounted, and enduring loss is a testimony many of us can relate to. It's hard not to be romantic about football.

Draft Announcer, “With the 177th pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, the Los Angeles Rams select Puka Nacua, WR, BYU.”

Lionel with his sons Samson and Puka.

The Dossier

Sources Cited:
https://www.nfl.com/prospects/puka-nacua/32004e41-4355-9347-35af-af88fcaf7ee9

https://ras.football/ras-information/?PlayerID=23036

https://247sports.com/player/puka-nacua-46039709/high-school-190988/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Puka_Nacua

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39157526/los-angeles-rams-wide-receiver-puka-nacua-rookie-star

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2023/10/10/23910514/los-angeles-rams-puka-nacua-rookie-receiver-rise-to-nfl-stardom

https://www.abc4.com/sports/samson-and-puka-nacuas-family-bond-brought-them-home-to-byu/

https://theathletic.com/1337759/2019/10/31/samson-puka-nacua-washington-utah/