T-Rock 11/8/24 T-Rock 11/8/24

WK 9 - QB Buys Of 2024

Killer Quarterbacks

I'm on the verge of tears by the time we arrive at Espace, since I'm positive we won't have a decent table. But we do, and relief washes over me in an awesome wave.

Bateman - American Psycho

New Costco Snacks. What Do You Think?

I live on the top floor of the Timbers Apartments Building. My name is Tarik Meziane. I’m 35 years old. I believe in buying whatever you want without looking at the price tag. When I arrive home from the liquor store, my wife likes to remind me how high my credit card is. It’s well over 1000 now. I’m trying to listen to the new Harry Styles, but my wife keeps asking me to help with the dishes. I act like I don’t hear her, hoping she’ll stop buzzing in my ear. Eventually, I tell her, “I will after I’m done with my article,” knowing full well I’ll be too tired and instead will end my evening watching The Sopranos, followed by Bob Ross.

There is an idea of a Tarik Meziane; some kind of abstraction I’ve built up over years from Ray Lewis' motivational speeches. But there is no real me: only a high-powered mutant who God never considered for mass production. And though I can downplay my big brain, and you can see my intensity when I prepare you a meal and feel overwhelmed by the burst of umami from its rich balance and maybe you go out of your way to praise me for my work... I simply do not care.

Agency Bulletin

During the 2023 Campaign, our Agency identified Tua Tagovailoa, Jared Goff, Russell Wilson, and Baker Mayfield as QB Interests in the Week 9 Dossier. At the time of the Agency Bulletin, Tua, Goff, Wilson, and Baker were the 5th, 12th, 15th, and 16th-ranked QBs respectively (4-pts/Pass TD). Tua would finish (wk 17) as the QB10 in 2023, Goff finished as the QB8, Wilson as the QB12, and Baker ended the season as the QB9. Learning from last season, analytics can help identify the top-performing players, but their situation determines a player’s finish.

The Dolphin's offense was built as a finely tuned system in 2023. But there was a fatal flaw in McDaniels’ genius: they could not recover from the smallest setbacks or interruptions while on offense. Any penalty, error, or opposition encountered by the offense and the entire operation broke down with no hopes of recovery. It would be near impossible to anticipate this type of fall-off from data in weeks 1-9 when Miami executed perfectly. The biggest takeaway from Tua is understanding the strengths and weaknesses of particular schemes and coaches.

Jared Goff is an interesting case. Between weeks 10-14, Jared Goff fluctuated between the QB12 and QB14, hampered by injuries to his offensive line and playing poorly under pressure. But in week 15 Goff went nuclear with 5 TDs and 278 passing yards against the Denver Broncos, shooting him up the leaderboard to QB9 on the season. This massive performance, injuries to Cousins and Herbert, and the declining play of Tua, Mahomes, Howell, and Dobbs were enough for Goff to overtake all these signal-callers in the final seven weeks of the season.

Russell Wilson climbed to QB9 in week 16 after a top-10 performance against the Patriots. For his efforts, he was promptly benched by the Denver Broncos for financial reasons after the team lost 3 of their last 4 games with Russ at the helm. Contracts and their stipulations are not our forte at the Agency, but it will be moving forward when considering teams who face similar circumstances and have nothing to play for.

Baker Mayfield was one of the greatest success stories of 2023 and it has continued in 2024. Like Goff, Baker exploded in week 15 with 381 passing yards and 4 TDs. In the final 3 weeks of the season, Baker was 2nd with 973 passing yards (Flacco - 1,051) and tied for 1st with 8 passing TDs (Lamar & Flacco). With a winnable schedule, a bargain price on KTC, and an unbeatable connection with Mike Evans, jumping on the Baker bandwagon made a lot of sense.

With this knowledge in mind, the following assets are in consideration for your Rest-Of-Season Mission. The WoRP values are based upon 12 team leagues, start 10, 25-player rosters, PPR, Lineup, and Best Ball. Do not engage in a trade until the following intel & parameters have been carefully reviewed:

WoRP - Scoring settings & team needs will dictate which assets to pursue. WoRP is a valuable resource in not only establishing priority targets but also secondary and backup options if necessary. This resource can only be accessed through: https://www.southharmonff.com/worp

Managers to Target - Begin negotiations with managers on the opposite side of the standings. If your roster is rebuilding, prioritize trading with teams in the middle who are desperate to contend & whose picks have higher upside. Managers at the bottom of the standings will become more eager to trade away their players to acquire picks as the season progresses. If your roster is in the middle, negotiate with other middling teams. If you are unable to acquire players to contend, then adapt and pursue the other direction with acquiring picks.

Scouting Weeks 12-17 - Prioritize the players with the best matchups during the most critical stage of the season.

FantasyCalc/KeepTradeCut - Where an asset ranks in the field ultimately determines its value. Dynasty Rankings and The Trade Database (which lists the most recent acquisitions of the asset of interest) are invaluable resources in leveraging suitable deals.

Trading Resources - Includes The Trade Checklist, Proactive Trading, Passive Trading, and Trading Stats

https://www.southharmonff.com/articles/category/The+Trading+Series

Buying Players Schedule

Weeks 1-2 - Be willing to trade a 3rd
Weeks 3-4 - Be willing to trade 2x 3rds
Weeks 5-8 - Be willing to trade a 2nd
Weeks 9-12 - Be willing to trade 2x 2nds (or 1x early 2nd)
Weeks 13-16- Be willing to trade a 1st

All Hail, The 2020 QB Class

Joe Burrow is having one of the best seasons of his career. In 2022, Burrow had 2,535 passing yds, 18 TDs, and 6 INTs (141 yds rushings, 4 TDs) through 9 weeks. This year, he has 2,244 passing yards, 20 TDs, and 4 INTs (117 yards rushing, 1 TD). With a score of 51 pts, the only QB who graded out better in our evaluations was Lamar Jackson, who scored 58 pts. This is due largely to Burrow’s prowess as an elite passer in 2024. Joey B is 2nd in QBR with 76.3, which is all about EPA (Expected Points Added). This metric takes into account passing, rushing, sacks, penalties, touchdowns, and turnovers. Each play is weighted on difficulty, the context of the game, and the opposing defense. Burrow is also 2nd in PFF Passing Grade at 90.7. PFF grades are based on the quarterback's accuracy, decision-making, and how well they progress on a play relative to expectation. He is 3rd in Passer Rating at 108.1. The NFL passer rating formula includes five variables: pass attempts, completions, passing yards, touchdown passes, and interceptions, with each variable scaled to various values. Contributing to his elite passing is his 1.1% turnover play rate (lowest in the NFL) and 79.7% Adjusted Completion Percentage (4th). Best of all, the Bengals are 2nd in Neutral Pass Rate at 62% on 1st & 2nd Downs. So not only has Burrow been one of the best passers in the league, but the coaches are emphasizing his abilities with a pass-heavy scheme. This has culminated in Joe Burrow currently slotting 4th amongst QBs at 24.6 PPG in 6-pt/passing TD leagues.

Jalen Hurts is continually the most underrated QB in dynasty football. Like Burrow, Hurts is also having a top-2 season of his career, but this is thanks to his work on the ground. Jalen is 1st amongst QBs with 8 rushing TDs and is tied for 4th with 40.3 rushing yards/game (min. 10 attempts). Jalen hasn’t been lacking through the air either. With an Adjusted Completion Percentage of 80.1%, he is 3rd in the league. ADJ% measures the percentage of aimed passes thrown on target and forgives passers of on-target drops by receivers. Since their bye week a month ago, the Eagles offense has been dynamic, the timing with receivers is impeccable, and Hurts has scored the most fantasy points at his position. Hurts offers all the upside of other Konami QBs, like Lamar, Jayden Daniels, and Josh Allen, but at a discount.

Flying far below the radar in 2024 is Justin Herbert. Primarily a running team through the first month of the season, Los Angeles was 31st in Neutral Pass Rate at 38%. Since their bye week, Harbaugh and the Chargers are now 4th in Neutral Pass Rate at 57%. The team is showcasing Herbert’s knack for Big Time Throws, who is currently 3rd at 6%. These passes have excellent ball location, timing, and are usually thrown further down the field or into a tighter window. In addition to his elite arm talent, The Herbinator has an 81.1 PFF Passing Grade (5th) and 8.43 Adjusted Yards Gained Per Pass Attempt (6th). Acquire Herbert now before the Chargers ascend to an elite status next season.

Works Cited

PFF
PlayerProfiler
ESPN
Pro Football Reference

NFL Week 9 Recap - Fantasy Usage Model by Hayden Winks
https://underdognetwork.com/football/analysis/nfl-week-9-recap-fantasy-usage-model

The Dossier

Image created by DK

T-Rock 10/31/24 T-Rock 10/31/24

WK 8 - Top 2024 Quarterbacks

The Quarterback position remains the Agency’s highest priority in SF leagues. Make no mistake, the war will be won or lost depending on this position in the coming weeks. Carefully review the following Field Generals vetted by our QB Selection process.

Wicked QuarterBacks

Attention, K-Mart shoppers. Well, I’m back. I feel real good about myself. You know what I mean? So, without further delay...

Beetlejuice - Beetlejuice

It’s Showtime!

Deep beneath the earth, dozens of Bath & Body Works candles flickered in the darkness of Beetlemeat’s den. Sinking deeper into his La-Z-Boy while humming “Running Up That Hill” to himself, Beetlemeat opened the Sleeper app to set his lineup.

“Damn injuries. Up thirteen percent, huh?” Beetlemeat mumbled to himself. “Well, I better find a replacement. Let's see. Trade Block. Ooh-la-la. What do we got here? Show Me Dem TDs, huh? Looks desperate and dumb,” he chuckled to himself.

Show Me Dem TDs was fifth in scoring, but was 8th in the league standings.

“Fucking ARich!” Dem TDs shouted. “How can you be tired?! You can’t last more than two games before your dumbass gets hurt or benched! Freaking Flacco and Jameis have already been picked up. All that’s left is Bryce Young?! Fuck! What am I going to do at QB? Where’s my “Peaceful Meditation” playlist?!?” she said furiously scrolling through Spotify.

“The following ad has been brought to you by: Rooster’s Wings - A Fun, Casual Joint,” the advertisement began.

“Oh God, I would kill for some fried pickles right now,” Dem TDs said to herself.

“Is your team trapped in roster hell? Is your league as lively as a cemetery?” Does your trade inbox make you want to walk into traffic? Are you tired of getting fucked six-ways on Sundays with injuries?” exclaimed the ad narrator. Dem TDs looked at her phone in bewilderment. “Well, put down the bleach and pick up the phone, 'cause I'm dynasty's leading roster consultant. Yes, sirree. Konami QBs, Dual-threat RBs, Alpha WRs, and that’s it, folks. You name it, I got it! No need to talk to your inbred leaguemates who are constantly trying to swindle you. I got all the players you want and I’m slashing prices!” Beetlemeat howled with the snap of his whip. “Exclusive Rookies (‘Don’t worry about production’ the narrator whispered)! Guaranteed Vets (‘Don’t worry about age’)! Wow! You can't beat that, can you? So come on down and see me. And bring your girlfriend, or bring your wife, it doesn’t matter. Don’t delay, call me now! And remember: I don’t win until you start winning!”

Show Me Dem TD’s thumb trembled over the advertisement. I’m tired of losing. It’s now or never. Pressing firmly down on her phone, the lights around Dem TDs began to blur and the room spun rapidly as she was teleported to a dimly-lit room.

QB Bona Fides

Baseline

PPG (6-pt Passing TDs): Courtesy of Sleeper

1. Lamar Jackson - 29.8 PPG

2. Baker Mayfield - 29.4 PPG

3. Jordan Love - 24.6 PPG

4. Jalen Hurts - 23.9 PPG

5. Josh Allen - 23.5 PPG

6. Joe Burrow - 22.7 PPG

Strong Indicators

QBR: Courtesy of ESPN

1. Joe Burrow - 75.4

2. Lamar Jackson - 74.9

3. Kyler Murray - 74.4

4. Josh Allen - 73.7

5. Jayden Daniels - 72.7

6. Jalen Hurts - 69.3

Rushing TDs: Courtesy of PFF

1. Jalen Hurts - 7 TDs

2. Justin Fields - 5 TDs

3. Jayden Daniels - 4 TDs

3. Bo Nix - 4 TDs

5. Josh Allen - 3 TDs

5. Brock Purdy - 3 TDs

Passing Grade: Courtesy of PFF

1. Joe Burrow - 88.3

2. Lamar Jackson - 87.8

2. Derek Carr - 87.8

4. Jayden Daniels - 81.7

5. Justin Herbert - 78.8

6. Kyler Murray - 78.6

Neutral Pass Rate: Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog

1. Joe Burrow - 0.64

2. Kirk Coursins - 0.6

3. Derek Carr - 0.59

4. Justin Herbert - 0.58

4. Geno Smith - 0.58

4. Aaron Rodgers - 0.58

ADOT: Courtesy of PFF

1. Anthony Richardson - 13.3 yds

2. Brock Purdy - 10 yds

3. Trevor Lawrence - 9.7 yds

3. Sam Darnold - 9.7 yds

5. Derek Carr - 9.4 yds

5. Jordan Love - 9.4 yds

Fair Indicators

Adjusted Yards Gained Per Pass Attempt: Courtesy of Pro Football Reference

1. Lamar Jackson - 9.95 yds

2. Jared Goff - 9.39 yds

3. Josh Allen - 8.97 yds

4. Sam Darnold - 8.81 yds

5. Jayden Daniels - 8.67 yds

6. Brock Purdy - 8.21 yds

Passer Rating: Courtesy of ESPN

1. Lamar Jackson - 115.4

2. Jared Goff - 115.3

3. Russell Wilson - 111.9

4. Josh Allen - 107.6

5. Sam Darnold - 107.2

6. Joe Burrow - 106.5

Big Time Throw Rate: Courtesy of PFF

1. Josh Allen - 7.5%

2. Anthony Richardson - 7.2%

3. Justin Herbert - 6.3%

4. Tua Tagovailo - 5.8%

5. Sam Darnold - 5.7%

5. Kyler Murray - 5.7%

Passing Attempts Per Game: Courtesy of PlayerProfiler

1. Geno Smith - 38.5

2. Dak Prescott - 37.4

3. Baker Mayfield - 35.5

3. Aaron Rodgers - 35.5

5. Daniel Jones - 34.8

6. Kirk Cousins - 33.9

Rushing Yards Per Game: Courtesy of PlayerProfiler

1. Lamar Jackson - 62.6 yds

2. Jayden Daniels - 53 yds

3. Kyler Murray - 43 yds

4. Anthony Richardson - 40.3 yds

5. Justin Fields - 38.5 yds

6. Jalen Hurts - 36.4 yds

Turnover Worthy Play Rate (Lowest): Courtesy of PFF

1. Joe Burrow - 1.3%

2. Lamar Jackson - 1.4%

3. Aaron Rodgers - 1.5%

4. Jayden Daniels - 1.8%

5. Bo Nix - 1.9%

6. Geno Smith - 2.1%

Faint Indicator

Adjusted Completion Percentage: Courtesy of PFF

1. Patrick Mahomes - 80.2%

2. Jayden Daniels - 79.4%

3. Joe Burrow - 79.3%

4. Jalen Hurts - 79.2%

5. Derek Carr - 79%

6. Justin Fields - 78.8%

6. Baker Mayfield - 78.8%

6. Jared Goff - 78.8%

Results

Overall:

1. Lamar Jackson

2. Joe Burrow

3. Jayden Daniels

4. Brock Purdy

5. Jalen Hurts

6. Josh Allen

The Ghost With The Most

Dem TDs was immediately greeted with the strong scent of Sweater Weather, working overtime to overpower the thin veil of armpit that lingered in the air. She approached the kitchenette slowly and found a handwritten note that read, “Make yourself at home and pour yourself a glass of wine. Dinner will be ready soon. I hope you like Italian.” She pulled the box of Franzia wine to the edge of the counter and pressed the spout down into her Solo cup. Walking past the oven, she saw the cardboard and wrapper of a 4 Meat TombStone pizza. What did I get myself into?

Emerging from the other room, Beetlemeat was dripping wet, presumably from taking a shower, but was somehow still stinky. He had the gut of a man who was practiced in the dark arts of boozery and BBQ. Seeing her, he grinned ear to ear, showing all of his discolored teeth.

“What’s cookin’, good lookin’?!” Beetlemeat said excitedly. “It’s not often I get company in the Meat Mansion. This calls for a special occasion!” Snapping his fingers, flames erupted from a newly manifested fireplace. Beetlemeat was now wearing a burgundy smoking jacket, embroidered with the initial’s “BM.”

“Here have a seat,” he said motioning to the couch. Dem TDs nodded and nervously smiled but then paused when she saw the men’s magazines scattered on the ground. “Don’t mind the mess, the maid is out,” Beetlemeat laughed to himself. “These are just draft guides for research,” he said shoving the pornos underneath the couch.

“Now, let me guess, you want a massive, blockbuster deal to put your team over the top. Let me ask you somethin’. How attached to your first-round pick are ya? Do I have a shot at it at all?” Beetlemeat inquired.

“Well, I’m not sure about a big deal or losing my 1st,” Dem TDs responded. “I mainly want a QB2 to help make a push for the play-”

“I GOT JUST THE GUY FOR YA!!!” Beetlemeat blurted. “The RED RIFLE! Andy Dalton!”

“Is he even starting?” she asked.

“YEAH! Probably! Eventually….maybe….” Beetlemeat said unconvincingly. “How about Aaron Rodgers?! He’s got the old band back with his guys Adams and Lazard!”

“Eh, I don’t know. I feel like his stock is plummeting.”

“Oh, I didn’t realize I was talking with the Wolf of Wall Street here! How did your Rice and Jamo trades work out for ya?!” Beetlemeat snapped.

Dem TDs was speechless as she stared at Beetlemeat. Rising from the couch, Beetlemeat grabbed her arm.

“I’m sorry, I’m sorry, don’t go!” he pleaded with her. “Look, I get it. You updated all of your player’s nicknames with trade prices that the other managers promptly ridiculed. In terms of who to start and who to sit, well, it doesn't matter cause all your best players will be dead and starting in your IR slots anyway. It’s BRUTAL!”

“So what should I do then?” she said defeated.

“Here’s the thing, I want to help, but your team sucks bad, and that’s okay because if you follow everything I say then you’ll be fine!” Beetlemeat said reassuringly. Dem TDs’ expression became cold and rigid.

“Handsome T-Rock sent me an offer with Baker Mayfield. Doesn’t Baker have a high WoRP?” she inquired.

“Baker Mayfield?! Why in the world would you want him? His best receiver is Cade Otton. Don’t worry about WoRP, analytics, or any other type of numbo-jumbo that comes out of T-Rock’s mouth.” he said condescendingly. “My best piece of advice for ya: join my Patreon. That way, you’ll have access to my rankings and to the Discord! Full of high-powered mutants and degenerates like yourself. You’ll love them!” Beetlemeat smiled, his eyes closed.

Show Me Dem TDs was already halfway out the door when Beetlemeat opened his eyes.

“Hey! Come on! You’ve gotta work with me here. I’m just tryna cut a deal. What do you want me to do? The least you can do is subscribe to my YouTube channel!” he cried out.

“I’m taking the Baker deal,” she said spitefully.

“Go ahead, trade with T-Rock! I don’t care! I got garlic bread in the microwave and a Tinder date on the way!”

“Goodbye Loser!” she said with disgust.

“You don’t deserve Andy Dalton!” he shouted as the door closed.

Works Cited

PFF
PlayerProfiler
ESPN
Pro Football Reference

NFL Week 8 Recap - Fantasy Usage Model by Hayden Winks

https://underdognetwork.com/football/analysis/nfl-week-8-recap-fantasy-usage-model-2024

Image created by DK