WK 17 - Lessons Learned In 2024

Oh my gosh, does that suck. We have spent 40 million dollars on a live TV show! You guys have got an ad with America's favorite old fart, reading a book, in front of a fireplace! Now, I have to kill all of you!

Frank Cross - Scrooged

Image created by T-Rock

The Playoffs are everyone’s favorite time of the year. Everyone’s except mine, of course. Managers everywhere are desperate to ensure that the last year or more of preparation wasn’t wasted. And that’s where I come in. I’m not selling proven analytics or effective strategies. What people really want is hands-on consultation, affirmation, and consolation. They want their favorite players built up to be gods and a crystal ball to discover the next league winner. But people don’t understand that it's all a farce. A dream that will never be a reality. The truth is that only one champ is crowned at the end of every year. With open arms, I welcome everyone else with the bitter taste of loss left in their mouths. I try to show them a better way.

The Ghost of Fantasy Past

The frigid Christmas air blasts me in the face as I wave down a cab. Before I can get settled, the driver hits the gas and the force sinks me deep into the backseat leather.

“Whoa! What the Hell!?” I shout from the backseat.

“Relax Rock! Enjoy the ride!” the taxi driver howled

“How do you know my name?” I demand.

“I know absolutely everything Rock,” he said turning towards me. His face was dirty, his eyes were yellow, and his ears were pointed. “You see, I’m a ghost,” he laughed uncontrollably with tobacco-stained teeth.

Surrounded by smoke and flashing lightning, the Ghost flipped the red flag down on his taximeter, triggering the fare that began to rapidly wind down from 2024. Tall, dark trees began to quickly pass by as we sped down a winding pitch-black road. 

“Where the Hell are we?!” I screamed.

“WHERE are we?! You mean WHEN are we?!” the Ghost driver chuckled pointing towards the fare on his meter that now read 2005.

“Please, just take me home,” I anguished.

“You got it, pal,” he replied.

Before I knew it, I was standing in front of an all too familiar house that I hadn’t seen for many years.

“HOME SWEET HOME ROCK!” the Ghost exclaimed.

“Oh, I get it. So you're gonna show me my past and I'm supposed to get all blubbery when I see my family. Well, it ain't happening!”

“That's exactly what Genghis Khan said. But when the conqueror saw his mother… Niagara Falls” he said making a crying gesture.

Without opening the door, the ghost passed through the glass of my old home. Thinking I could do the same, my head bounced hard off the glass, shaking the front door.

The ghost’s laugh echoed loudly through the grand hall. “I love that bit!” he said opening the door.

“Quiet! They are gonna hear us!”

“Rock, they can't hear us, they can't see us. It's not live, it's like a rerun.”

The Ghost of Christmas Past led me upstairs and down the long, dark hallway. I stood silently peeking through the gap of my old bedroom door. I watched my younger self turn his modest TV to ESPN before picking up the phone. The Ghost walked towards my old computer and noticed that I had µTorrent running.

“Damn Rock, did you need every single release of Big Wet Bu-”

“SHHH!” I interrupted.

I stood motionless as the 2005 me brought the phone to his ear.

“ARE YOU READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL?!” my old self cheered.

“A Monday Night Party!” the voice on the other line sang.

For years, I called my older brother weekly and we would watch Monday Night Football together over the phone. Tonight was a special night with the Ravens playing Brett Favre and the Packers. These beautiful moments of my life I had locked away and forgotten. Overwhelmed with a flood of emotions, the tears began to roll down my cheek. 

“Niagra Falls Rock, Niagra Falls,” the Ghost whispered in my ear.

Lesson I - Expedite Your Trades

The irony of fantasy football is that I can provide my readers with plenty of intelligent research, a very sound strategy, and a plan that makes sense on paper informed by years of experience from some of the best minds in the space. But all this effort doesn’t always translate into success. Despite an arsenal of resources at our disposal:

• We have little sway over others in our trade negotiations

• We have zero control over injuries

• And there’s going to be plenty of deals that just don’t work out in our favor

This advice may not pertain to you because you don’t anguish for hours, obsessively scrolling your Sleeper app to see how far behind or ahead you are in your matchups. Or maybe you don’t spend days meticulously constructing trades that often go “unread.” Understand, that much of what I write is advice for myself to follow as a degenerate. For me to model a policy of playing “stress-free” with “no regrets,” I first need to start enjoying the ride myself. How am I going to do that? It begins with this wisdom in mind:

If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.

Sun Tzu - The Art of War

• Understand that your biggest enemy is often yourself

• You can listen to others, but ultimately you are responsible for your success

• The best practice is to be like water, don’t fight against the fates, and just play the cards dealt to ya

Operating from this mindset has led me to a new policy for my trade negotiations. It’s simple:

• Set your terms

• If your trade partner counters, then set your absolute limit

• If the deal isn’t acceptable, then simply say “No thanks,” and end it OR reply with “Let’s table it,” and return to it later. 

Understanding that most people don’t budge much from their initial offers can be quite freeing when you realize that you don’t have to go through the effort of persuading them. The days of humoring my potential trade partner by listening to their endless rants are over, and I wish I had learned this years ago. I want to limit and control how much time I spend devoted to fantasy football.

Lesson II - Revamped Trading Schedule

I am a big advocate of adhering to a “Trading Schedule.” Limiting yourself to trading away smaller assets in the beginning half of the season is motivated by four major factors:

• Trading away a high draft pick for a player always comes with the risk the player can get hurt. I want to limit this possibility by waiting as long as possible.

• The longer the season progresses, the larger the sample of data we can use to hone in on the very best trade candidates.

• The scarcity of picks limits the opportunities to make trades, making each trade that much more valuable.

• Lastly, the pool of players available for trade at the end of the season is typically larger when more teams are knocked out of contention and are more likely to move off valuable players in preparation for next season.

Trading Schedule

• Weeks 1-2 - Be willing to trade a 3rd

• Weeks 3-4 - Be willing to trade 2x 3rds

• Weeks 5-8 - Be willing to trade a 2nd

• Weeks 9-12 - Be willing to trade 2x 2nds (or 1x early 2nd)

• Weeks 13-16- Be willing to trade a 1st

The Trading Schedule strategy has saved me from more heartache and won me more championships than anything else I have utilized since I started playing fantasy football. It has become a cardinal rule that I live by. But I am adding a new wrinkle.

Why limit this philosophy to only Draft Picks? Certain players are FAR MORE valuable than liquid assets. There are 12 First Round Draft picks in 2025 (or however many managers are in your league), but there is only one Lamar Jackson, only one Josh Allen, and only one Jayden Daniels. In a game that involves so much variance, attrition, and overall instability, these elite players bring stability and firepower that is far more valuable than draft picks. With this in mind, here is the updated Trading Schedule. 

NEW Trading Schedule

• Weeks 1-2 - Be willing to trade a 3rd

• Weeks 3-4 - Be willing to trade 2x 3rds

• Weeks 5-8 - Be willing to trade a 2nd

• Weeks 9-12 - Be willing to trade 2x 2nds (or 1x early 2nd)

• Weeks 13-16- Be willing to trade a 1st, OR In case of a minor injury, be willing to downtier from Rd. 2 Startup Player to Rd. 3 Startup Player, OR be willing to trade away an Rd. 4 Startup Player 

• Championship Week - In case of a minor injury, be willing to downtier from Rd. 1 Startup Player to Rd. 2 Startup Player 

Key Takeaways

• Do not trade away Top-48 ranked players until the playoffs and only if the trade is necessary for a championship run in the event of a minor injury (i.e. concussion).

• The more valuable the player, the longer you should hold off on trading them.

• If the player is an elite QB or WR, do not accept too large of a downtier. 

Lesson III - Analytics Vs. WoRP

A large portion of my writing I devote to unearthing the top performers at each position starting in week seven with TEs and ending in week 13 with RBs. With this research, I recommend to my readers the top players to acquire for championship aspirations.

With how time-consuming this research is, I naturally wonder “Is it effective and worthwhile for my readers?” The best way I can answer such a question is by comparing it to the best resource I know of when it comes to player evaluation - WoRP. 

The following is the list of 2024 Buys at each position. I was interested in the player’s Overall WoRP (all positions), the player’s Total WoRP by position, and their WoRP/Game by position. Lastly, I compiled this data from two samples: the WoRP data up until the time of publication and the WoRP data up until week 16. In BOLD I have highlighted the players that managed to improve since initial publication and have Underlined the players that maintained their position. Here are the results: 

TE Buys 

Overall WoRP, Total WoRP, WoRP/G

Wk 1-7 

Wk 1-16

Wins

Hunter Henry

57th overall, 0.61 (TE6), 0.087/G (TE14)

44th overall, 1.424 (TE8), 0.095/G (TE13)

Zach Ertz 

108th overall, 0.399 (TE18), 0.08/G (TE17)  

83rd overall, 1.065 (TE13), 0.082/G (TE17)

Steadfast

George Kittle 

6th overall, 1.192 (TE2), 0.199/G (TE1) 

7th overall, 2.281 (TE3), 0.175/G (TE2)

QB Buys

Overall WoRP, Total WoRP, WoRP/G

Wk 1-9

Wk 1-16

Wins

Joe Burrow 

18th overall, 1.224 (QB5), 0.136/G (QB6) 

8th overall, 2.245 (QB 3), 0.15/G (QB3)

Justin Herbert 

101st overall, 0.534 (QB21), 0.067/G (QB27) 

84th overall, 1.053 (QB17), 0.07/G (QB27)

Misses/Injured

Jalen Hurts 

12th overall, 1.296 (QB4), 0.162/G (QB3) 

21st overall, 1.897 (QB6), 0.126/G (QB7)

WR Buys 

Overall WoRP, Total WoRP, WoRP/G

Wk 1-11 

Wk 1-16

Wins

Terry McLaurin 

40th overall, 1.102 (WR9), 0.1/G (WR20) 

27th overall, 1.752 (WR5), 0.117/G (WR11)

Tee Higgins 

77th overall, 0.81 (WR25), 0.135/G (WR8) 

70th overall, 1.198 (WR23), 0.12/G (WR10)

Jameson Williams 

76th overall, 0.815 (WR24), 0.102/G (WR19) 

63rd overall, 1.245 (WR20), 0.096/G (WR24)

Courtland Sutton 

59th overall, 0.932 (WR18), 0.093/G (WR28) 

53rd overall, 1.357 (WR15), 0.097/G (WR23)

Misses/Injured

George Pickens 

67th overall, 0.861 (WR20), 0.086/G (WR35) 

90th overall, 1.002 (WR32), 0.084/G (WR34)

Jauan Jennings 

105th overall, 0.616 (WR 36), 0.123/G (WR12) 

107th overall, 0.868 (WR40), 0.087/G (WR32)

Cooper Kupp 

49th overall, 0.996 (WR13), 0.166/G (WR3) 

72nd overall, 1.178 (WR24), 0.107/G (WR18)

Khalil Shakir 

72nd overall, 0.842 (WR22), 0.084/G (WR37) 

87th overall, 1.019 (WR30), 0.073 (WR43)

RB Buys

Overall WoRP, Total WoRP, WoRP/G

Wk 1-13 

Wk 1-16

Wins

Chuba Hubbard 

54th overall, 1.17 (RB19), 0.097/G (RB22) 

32nd overall, 1.6 (RB12), 0.107/G (RB17)

James Conner 

45th overall, 1.206 (RB15), 0.1/G (RB19) 

29th overall, 1.729 (RB11), 0.115/G (RB13)

Chase Brown 

47th overall, 1.202 (RB17), 0.109/G (RB16) 

34th overall, 1.566 (RB13), 0.112/G (RB14)

Josh Jacobs 

21st overall, 1.513 (RB8), 0.126 (RB9) 

19th overall, 1.924 (RB7), 0.128/G (RB8)

Steadfast

Derrick Henry 

5th overall, 1.99 (RB2), 0.153/G (RB4) 

10th overall, 2.176 (RB2), 0.145/G (RB3)

Kyren Williams 

25th overall, 1.447 (RB9), 0.121 (RB12) 

26th overall, 1.786 (RB9), 0.119/G (RB11)

Misses/Injured

Alvin Kamara 

8th overall, 1.848 (RB3), 0.154/G (RB3) 

17th overall, 1.982 (RB6), 0.142/G (RB5)

Bucky Irving 

69th overall, 0.982 (RB23), 0.123 (RB10) 

74th overall, 1.226 (RB22), 0.106/G (RB18) 

Key Takeaways

• I am particularly pleased with my RB, QB, and TE research, where the majority of the players I recommended managed to improve as the season progressed.

• Going only 50% on the WRs drives home a huge focus I had in my process this year, “analytics can help identify the top-performing players, but their situation determines a player’s finish.” 

• Hopefully, by next year, I can figure out why some of these WRs did not hit

• Overall, I am pleased that my process did bear some worthwhile fruit and will continue to provide and improve this research moving forward.

The Ghost of Fantasy Future

Staring up at the ceiling in the dead quiet of my bedroom, I remained motionless and unable to sleep as I tried to wrap my mind around today’s events. The door to my room slowly creaked open, and a shard of light from the hallway pierced through the ether of my room's darkness. Entering the hallway, the once modest carpeted stairway had become a luxurious oak staircase stained in rich mahogany red with intricate woodworking on the balusters and newel posts. Despite having never set foot in this place before, the taste in furniture and artwork was reminiscent, and I felt like I had lived here for years. Entering a large study, there was a grand library of books covering the walls and a roaring fire. I saw an old man hunched over a massive executive desk. Standing behind him was a tall, dark silhouette of a hooded figure. Slow-moving smoke bellowed out from the feet of the figure and crawled across the floor. The shadowy phantom rested one of his skeletal hands on the old man’s shoulder.

The old man was distressed as he poured through all of the data on his computers. Only the strokes of his keyboard and snaps from the fireplace echoed through the empty household. His work completely consumed him, swimming deeper and faster into an abyss he would never reach the bottom of. His family, friends, and any other distractions were all gone now. Death and the glass of Lagavulin were the only companions he had close by. I shook my head in disbelief as I inched closer to the desk. It was only for a moment that the old man broke from the trance of his toils and I caught a glimpse of his familiar visage. There was no love in his eyes, only anguish and heartache. 

What a waste. 

Lesson IV - New Tiers

For years, I have abided by and respected the player market (Startup ADP & KTC). However, the longer I play fantasy, watch football, conduct research, and write, the more I appreciate certain players. These players typically have more of a unique backstory or track record, they exhibit certain character qualities that I highly respect, but overall these players excite me the most when I watch them. In other words, these players are personal to me.

Luckily, many of the players I love are a few of the best and most valuable players in fantasy. At one point, I mocked in my heart anyone who labeled a player “untradeable” because I felt that limited ideal roster construction. Though I probably won’t swing this far in my new outlook, what I am saying is that my loyalty to certain players will far outweigh the “fair” consensus price of a player on the trade market. Many managers already operate this way with elite players like Josh Allen and Ja’Marr Chase, who typically fetch a price closer to 5-6x 1st Round Picks than their price on KTC. I am simply adopting this view and applying it not only to the elites but also to my favorite players.

I do not recommend this new lesson the same way as my other lessons because it is very personal. But, if you’re like me and your view of fantasy has been completely data and market-driven for years, then perhaps creating your own tiers of players and their criteria can provide you a much-needed new spark to your experience.

Conclusion - Heart & Why

I do my best to provide the very best strategy and data I possibly can to my audience. But I'm a high-powered mutant that moonlights as an imperfect human and much of my journey has come with making countless mistakes. For the most part, I've tried to figure out as many things on my own. Ultimately, I’ve found that the best and most rewarding experience is taking more ownership of it. The overwhelming ethos in fantasy has become “What do I do? I'm worried about making a mistake!” Instead, I want to take a page from Ol’ Blue Eyes, who famously said, “I did it my way.”

I'm starting by not only bringing you research on topics I find pertinent and neglected, but with a shifted focus on players, their history, achievements, and special journeys in the sport we all love. Lastly, I want to devote more time to investigating the queries you all have with my “Special Operations” articles.

My writing journey feels like a miracle that I don’t want to go to waste. I have a ton of projects I am excited to share with you all! I appreciate all of you and your support. I’ll see you all next year!

The Dossier

Image created by DK