T-Rock 11/8/24 T-Rock 11/8/24

WK 9 - QB Buys Of 2024

Killer Quarterbacks

I'm on the verge of tears by the time we arrive at Espace, since I'm positive we won't have a decent table. But we do, and relief washes over me in an awesome wave.

Bateman - American Psycho

New Costco Snacks. What Do You Think?

I live on the top floor of the Timbers Apartments Building. My name is Tarik Meziane. I’m 35 years old. I believe in buying whatever you want without looking at the price tag. When I arrive home from the liquor store, my wife likes to remind me how high my credit card is. It’s well over 1000 now. I’m trying to listen to the new Harry Styles, but my wife keeps asking me to help with the dishes. I act like I don’t hear her, hoping she’ll stop buzzing in my ear. Eventually, I tell her, “I will after I’m done with my article,” knowing full well I’ll be too tired and instead will end my evening watching The Sopranos, followed by Bob Ross.

There is an idea of a Tarik Meziane; some kind of abstraction I’ve built up over years from Ray Lewis' motivational speeches. But there is no real me: only a high-powered mutant who God never considered for mass production. And though I can downplay my big brain, and you can see my intensity when I prepare you a meal and feel overwhelmed by the burst of umami from its rich balance and maybe you go out of your way to praise me for my work... I simply do not care.

Agency Bulletin

During the 2023 Campaign, our Agency identified Tua Tagovailoa, Jared Goff, Russell Wilson, and Baker Mayfield as QB Interests in the Week 9 Dossier. At the time of the Agency Bulletin, Tua, Goff, Wilson, and Baker were the 5th, 12th, 15th, and 16th-ranked QBs respectively (4-pts/Pass TD). Tua would finish (wk 17) as the QB10 in 2023, Goff finished as the QB8, Wilson as the QB12, and Baker ended the season as the QB9. Learning from last season, analytics can help identify the top-performing players, but their situation determines a player’s finish.

The Dolphin's offense was built as a finely tuned system in 2023. But there was a fatal flaw in McDaniels’ genius: they could not recover from the smallest setbacks or interruptions while on offense. Any penalty, error, or opposition encountered by the offense and the entire operation broke down with no hopes of recovery. It would be near impossible to anticipate this type of fall-off from data in weeks 1-9 when Miami executed perfectly. The biggest takeaway from Tua is understanding the strengths and weaknesses of particular schemes and coaches.

Jared Goff is an interesting case. Between weeks 10-14, Jared Goff fluctuated between the QB12 and QB14, hampered by injuries to his offensive line and playing poorly under pressure. But in week 15 Goff went nuclear with 5 TDs and 278 passing yards against the Denver Broncos, shooting him up the leaderboard to QB9 on the season. This massive performance, injuries to Cousins and Herbert, and the declining play of Tua, Mahomes, Howell, and Dobbs were enough for Goff to overtake all these signal-callers in the final seven weeks of the season.

Russell Wilson climbed to QB9 in week 16 after a top-10 performance against the Patriots. For his efforts, he was promptly benched by the Denver Broncos for financial reasons after the team lost 3 of their last 4 games with Russ at the helm. Contracts and their stipulations are not our forte at the Agency, but it will be moving forward when considering teams who face similar circumstances and have nothing to play for.

Baker Mayfield was one of the greatest success stories of 2023 and it has continued in 2024. Like Goff, Baker exploded in week 15 with 381 passing yards and 4 TDs. In the final 3 weeks of the season, Baker was 2nd with 973 passing yards (Flacco - 1,051) and tied for 1st with 8 passing TDs (Lamar & Flacco). With a winnable schedule, a bargain price on KTC, and an unbeatable connection with Mike Evans, jumping on the Baker bandwagon made a lot of sense.

With this knowledge in mind, the following assets are in consideration for your Rest-Of-Season Mission. The WoRP values are based upon 12 team leagues, start 10, 25-player rosters, PPR, Lineup, and Best Ball. Do not engage in a trade until the following intel & parameters have been carefully reviewed:

WoRP - Scoring settings & team needs will dictate which assets to pursue. WoRP is a valuable resource in not only establishing priority targets but also secondary and backup options if necessary. This resource can only be accessed through: https://www.southharmonff.com/worp

Managers to Target - Begin negotiations with managers on the opposite side of the standings. If your roster is rebuilding, prioritize trading with teams in the middle who are desperate to contend & whose picks have higher upside. Managers at the bottom of the standings will become more eager to trade away their players to acquire picks as the season progresses. If your roster is in the middle, negotiate with other middling teams. If you are unable to acquire players to contend, then adapt and pursue the other direction with acquiring picks.

Scouting Weeks 12-17 - Prioritize the players with the best matchups during the most critical stage of the season.

FantasyCalc/KeepTradeCut - Where an asset ranks in the field ultimately determines its value. Dynasty Rankings and The Trade Database (which lists the most recent acquisitions of the asset of interest) are invaluable resources in leveraging suitable deals.

Trading Resources - Includes The Trade Checklist, Proactive Trading, Passive Trading, and Trading Stats

https://www.southharmonff.com/articles/category/The+Trading+Series

Buying Players Schedule

Weeks 1-2 - Be willing to trade a 3rd
Weeks 3-4 - Be willing to trade 2x 3rds
Weeks 5-8 - Be willing to trade a 2nd
Weeks 9-12 - Be willing to trade 2x 2nds (or 1x early 2nd)
Weeks 13-16- Be willing to trade a 1st

All Hail, The 2020 QB Class

Joe Burrow is having one of the best seasons of his career. In 2022, Burrow had 2,535 passing yds, 18 TDs, and 6 INTs (141 yds rushings, 4 TDs) through 9 weeks. This year, he has 2,244 passing yards, 20 TDs, and 4 INTs (117 yards rushing, 1 TD). With a score of 51 pts, the only QB who graded out better in our evaluations was Lamar Jackson, who scored 58 pts. This is due largely to Burrow’s prowess as an elite passer in 2024. Joey B is 2nd in QBR with 76.3, which is all about EPA (Expected Points Added). This metric takes into account passing, rushing, sacks, penalties, touchdowns, and turnovers. Each play is weighted on difficulty, the context of the game, and the opposing defense. Burrow is also 2nd in PFF Passing Grade at 90.7. PFF grades are based on the quarterback's accuracy, decision-making, and how well they progress on a play relative to expectation. He is 3rd in Passer Rating at 108.1. The NFL passer rating formula includes five variables: pass attempts, completions, passing yards, touchdown passes, and interceptions, with each variable scaled to various values. Contributing to his elite passing is his 1.1% turnover play rate (lowest in the NFL) and 79.7% Adjusted Completion Percentage (4th). Best of all, the Bengals are 2nd in Neutral Pass Rate at 62% on 1st & 2nd Downs. So not only has Burrow been one of the best passers in the league, but the coaches are emphasizing his abilities with a pass-heavy scheme. This has culminated in Joe Burrow currently slotting 4th amongst QBs at 24.6 PPG in 6-pt/passing TD leagues.

Jalen Hurts is continually the most underrated QB in dynasty football. Like Burrow, Hurts is also having a top-2 season of his career, but this is thanks to his work on the ground. Jalen is 1st amongst QBs with 8 rushing TDs and is tied for 4th with 40.3 rushing yards/game (min. 10 attempts). Jalen hasn’t been lacking through the air either. With an Adjusted Completion Percentage of 80.1%, he is 3rd in the league. ADJ% measures the percentage of aimed passes thrown on target and forgives passers of on-target drops by receivers. Since their bye week a month ago, the Eagles offense has been dynamic, the timing with receivers is impeccable, and Hurts has scored the most fantasy points at his position. Hurts offers all the upside of other Konami QBs, like Lamar, Jayden Daniels, and Josh Allen, but at a discount.

Flying far below the radar in 2024 is Justin Herbert. Primarily a running team through the first month of the season, Los Angeles was 31st in Neutral Pass Rate at 38%. Since their bye week, Harbaugh and the Chargers are now 4th in Neutral Pass Rate at 57%. The team is showcasing Herbert’s knack for Big Time Throws, who is currently 3rd at 6%. These passes have excellent ball location, timing, and are usually thrown further down the field or into a tighter window. In addition to his elite arm talent, The Herbinator has an 81.1 PFF Passing Grade (5th) and 8.43 Adjusted Yards Gained Per Pass Attempt (6th). Acquire Herbert now before the Chargers ascend to an elite status next season.

Works Cited

PFF
PlayerProfiler
ESPN
Pro Football Reference

NFL Week 9 Recap - Fantasy Usage Model by Hayden Winks
https://underdognetwork.com/football/analysis/nfl-week-9-recap-fantasy-usage-model

The Dossier

Image created by DK

T-Rock 10/29/24 T-Rock 10/29/24

Week 9 Waiver Targets

The South Harmon Agency has more high-tier operatives gathering intel than ever before. Be sure to keep your channel open and collect data from the various sources as it comes in. In terms of FAAB bidding, review your league’s previous waiver behavior to navigate the wire best. The waiver wire will become more bare as the season continues, especially in best ball formats.

Waiver Targets

ReDraft (most of these players will be rostered in Dynasty leagues)

Bo Nix - 35% rostership, 20-25% FAAB (Bo continued the trend of players having their best games versus Carolina with 284 passing yards and 4 total TDs (start all of your Saints players in week 9). The 12th overall pick in the NFL Draft has put together three top-10 QB finishes in the past month and has had 6/8 weeks in the top 16. Lacking playmaking receivers, Bo has utilized his legs to average 32 yards rushing per game, and has scored 4 TDs on the ground.)
Joe Flacco - 6% rostership, 18-20% FAAB (Anthony Richardson has been benched. For how long? Who’s to say? But what is for sure is that Flacco has been the far better QB. In 3 games, Cool Joe has passed for 716 yds, 7 TDs, and only 1 INT. In 5.5 games, ARich has passed for 958 yds, 4 TDs, and 7 INTs (while also rushing for 242 yds, 1 TD). This provides an immediate boost to all playmakers for the Colts offense. We anticipate Indianapolis will retain Flacco as the starter until the team has been eliminated from playoff contention.)
Cedric Tillman - 24% rostership, spend 15-18% FAAB (Matt Harmon of Reception Perception posted in his Discord that Tillman was on the rise in his rankings a few days ago. Then Tillman explodes for a career game versus their division rival. An intriguing prospect out of Tennessee, Tillman is above average in many respects but offers insane athleticism with a 9.56 RAS score. With a healthier offensive line and Jameis Winston, the Browns look far more competent, and dare we say, professional at times. Acquire Tillman, who looks to be a major beneficiary as their #1 X-receiver moving forward.)
Adam Thielen - 21% rostership, spend 15-18% FAAB (Diontae Johnson has been traded to the Ravens, paving the way for Adam Thielen to be #1 WR for the Panthers after returning from IR. It will be tricky for the 34-year-old WR to stay healthy while recovering from a hamstring injury, but the productive vet has more upside than the typical FLEX option.)
Demarcus Robinson - 15% rostership, spend 10-12% FAAB (Demarcus Robinson can not bear the burden of being a WR1, but with Kupp & Puka back in the fold, Robinson can be the chip-winning fantasy god he was last year as the WR3. The Rams are too well-coached and talented to roll over for the rest of the season. Acquire all the value starters you can from this elite offense.)
Jalen Coker - 0% rostership, spend 5-8% FAAB (Written about in week 5 as a dynasty waiver add, Coker has moved into redraft legitimacy after a 4/6 for 78 yd, 1 TD performance versus Denver. Carolina is a dumpster fire, flying down a steep hill toward a nitroglycerin plant, but with Coker’s ability to turn limited opportunities into big plays and Diontae Johnson being traded, Jalen should see a worthwhile uptick.)
Parker Washington- 0% rostership, spend 5-8% FAAB (Parker Washington will be the #1 add for most leagues this week given the injuries to all 3 starting WRs for Jacksonville. However, expectations should be tempered considering that Parker hasn’t eclipsed a 34% snap share despite how poor the Jaguars have been at WR outside of BTJ. The 6th-round 2023 pick was not a highly-ranked prospect for our process but is still worth a waiver bid considering his opportunity.
Elijah Moore - 8% rostership, 3-5% FAAB (Tillman will be the hot commodity after their win over Baltimore, but he wasn’t the only Browns receiver who had their best game of the year. Moore led Cleveland in targets with 12, catching 8 for 81 yards. Cleveland and Carolina receivers may not be the fireworks waiver-adds we all hope for, but it's the best we can hope for at this point in the season.)

Dynasty

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine - 11% rostership, 8-10% FAAB in Best Ball (Westbrook-Ikhine has scored a TD for three straight weeks, but most encouraging was the 92% snap share he earned in their latest contest. With Hopkins in Kansas City and Burks on IR, the WR2 position is wide-open with little production coming from Tyler Boyd.)
Adam Trautman- 6% rostership, 5-8% FAAB in Best Ball (Trautman was the primary TE for the Broncos last season, but has been irrelevant for Denver until this past week. With Greg Dulcich falling out of favor with Coach Payton (likely due to poor blocking) and Lucas Krull injuring his shoulder, Trautman took advantage with 4/4 for 85 yards, 1 TD on an 85% snap share. With the team hitting its stride, look for the Head Coach to keep Trautman as the TE1 while Krull is out.)

The Dossier

Image created by DK

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