WK 5 - Superpowers

Elite Fantasy Franchises Of 2024

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SITREP - Superpowers

Superpower franchises are the most influential teams in the NFL, with the best players for fantasy football. Their offensive ecosystems provide managers with high-end production at nearly every position. With elite offensive talent top to bottom, amazing coaching, and solid defenses, players on these rosters epitomize championship caliber.  

Saints - The Saints made this tier by the narrowest of margins. Alvin Kamara is rarely mentioned in the same breath as CMC, King Henry, and Saquon Barkley as one of the best RBs of his generation, but at age 29 the future Hall of Famer still plays like one of the best players in the NFL. Sadly, the Saints will continue to lose much of their early season momentum with Derek Carr being sidelined for multiple weeks with a torn oblique. This puts a massive damper on Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, who was having a career year and on pace as a top 20 WR. Carr’s injury opens the door for rookie Spencer Rattler, who did not receive the best grade from us as a prospect but is interesting considering New Orleans’ playmakers and coaches. In a season of surprises, the once-projected 1.01 is worth an add as a bye-week QB. If Rattler can’t handle the offense, then Kamara and Taysom Hill will likely be run into the ground until Carr returns.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.44 (24th in NFL), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 84.2 (2nd), RunBlk = 65.6 (14th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Derek Carr = 87.8 (1st), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 81.2 (9th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 22.5 pts (7th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 77.7 (3rd), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 24.5 pts (23rd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 6 pts (28th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 65.8 (15th), RunD = 51.7 (27th), PassRsh = 69.1 (15th), Cov = 68.4 (13th), (Courtesy PFF) 

Upcoming Schedule - Home vs TB, home vs DEN, at LAC, at CAR, home vs ATL, at CLE, home vs LAR, at NYG, home vs WAS  

Packers - The Packers are an odd team. They are the most run-heavy team in the NFL, but Josh Jacobs is shockingly the RB24 with only 1 TD. Their Neutral Pass Rate is interesting considering their talent at receiver, with Jayden Reed playing like a superstar and Tucker Kraft thriving as the Last of the TE Tribe. Green Bay seems reluctant to put too much on Jordan Love’s shoulders despite his embarrassment of riches at receiver. His performance so far this season looks nowhere near his level of play in 2023, and yet he is still averaging the 4th most fantasy points at QB. They're certainly not showing any signs of slowing, so it may be best to get on this wild boat ride where there's no earthly way of knowing which direction LaFleur has his team going.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.31 (32nd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 81.3 (1st), RunBlk = 56.7 (26th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Jordan Love = 61.9 (24th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 88.7 (2nd), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 20.4 pts (16th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 66.6 (20th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 24.2 pts (21st), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 28.3 pts (18th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 63.9 (17th-tied), RunD = 57.4 (23rd), PassRsh = 65 (21st), Cov = 67.3 (15th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - Home vs ARI, home vs HOU, at JAX, home vs DET, at CHI, home vs 49ers, home vs MIA, at DET, at SEA  

Eagles - Fully healthy, could the Eagles support a #1 at every position in fantasy? Yes, they could, which is what we fully expect once the team returns from their bye-week and hopefully welcomes back both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. This elite duo should settle the erratic play of Jalen Hurts, who should still be considered an elite fantasy QB with his rushing upside. With critical injuries to the offense and poor play from the defense, the Eagles are desperate to avoid repeating the disappointment of 2023. Helping Hurts shoulder the load is a fantasy godsend, Saquon Barkley, who is arguably the best RB in football right now. Invest in this offense now and cross your fingers that they can stay healthy enough for a massive offensive surge the rest of the way.  

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.49 (14th - tied), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 72.6 (8th), RunBlk = 73.3 (6th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Jalen Hurts = 51.7 (32nd), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 81.4 (8th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 20.6 pts (14th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 70.2 (16th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 21.3 pts (27th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 12.7 pts (1st), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 62.6 (23rd), RunD = 49 (28th), PassRsh = 77.2 (5th), Cov = 61.7 (21st), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - Home vs CLE, at NYG, at CIN, home vs JAX, at DAL, home vs WAS, at LAR, at BAL, home vs CAR

Buccaneers - Few passing attacks have looked as great as Baker Mayfield with the Buccaneers this season. The offense looks better than last year, despite losing their talented OC Dave Canales, all thanks to Baker having the best season start of his career. Chris Godwin and Mike Evans both look unstoppable as top 10 WRs. One of the most interesting players is rookie RB Bucky Irving. Bucky has outperformed Rachaad White, but it may not matter since the Bucs have one of the most dominant personnel groups in the NFL when both RBs are on the field together. Tampa Bay offers the best values in all of fantasy football.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.55 (7th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 70.9 (10th), RunBlk = 64.5 (15th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Baker Mayfield = 80.6 (5th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 74.7 (21st), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 18.4 pts (25th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 73 (10th-tied), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 28.5 pts (17th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 8.5 pts (18th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 66.8 (14th), RunD = 48.8 (29th), PassRsh = 69 (16th), Cov = 75.4 (7th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - At NO, home vs BAL, home vs ATL, at KC, home vs SF, at NYG, at CAR, home vs LV, at LAC  

49ers - The 49ers have not had the best start to their 2024 season, but make no mistake that San Francisco is still one of the best offensive teams in the NFL. Purdy is not wowing managers who only look at the final stat lines. But anyone who watches the games has seen the signal caller routinely make impressive throws in a dynamic offense tailor-made to his skillset. Losing the offensive player of the year in CMC would crush most teams, but Jordan Mason has been nothing short of spectacular. The waiver-wire god is playing like a top-5 RB. The biggest area of needed improvement has been the defense closing out games and the redzone offense, which too often settles for FGs instead of TDs. Their game against Seattle will be a turning point in week 6. 

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.51 (10th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 68.9 (13th), RunBlk = 78.3 (2nd), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Brock Purdy = 84 (3rd), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 75.7 (17th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 18.5 pts (23rd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 78.3 (2nd), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 35.1 pts (5th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 12.6 pts (2nd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 73.6 (6th - tied), RunD = 55.3 (25th), PassRsh = 76.5 (6th), Cov = 79.8 (4th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - At SEA, home vs kc, home vs dal, at TB, home vs SEA, at GB, at BUF, home vs CHI, home vs LAR    

Texans - Houston may not be winning as impressively as in 2023, but the team has shown true grit persevering through injuries to be at 4-1. C.J. Stroud is building off his historic rookie season and solidifying himself as an elite passer. The chemistry between Stroud and Nico Collins is otherworldly. Unfortunately, Collins is now on IR with a hamstring injury, which likely derails his prospect of joining the elite tier of WRs this year, but reopens his buy window. With Stefon Diggs playing at a high level, and Tank Dell looking to rekindle last year’s dominance, this offense is still dangerous. The Texans would greatly benefit from the return of Joe Mixon but given the ravages of time, he may not endure the 2024 season.   

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.51 (12th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 79.1 (12th), RunBlk = 59.9 (22nd), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - C.J. Stroud = 76.5 (9th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 73.5 (22nd), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 19.4 pts (19th-tied), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 79.1 (1st), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 36.1 pts (4th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 7.7 pts (19th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 63.9 (17th-tied), RunD = 60.1 (20th), PassRsh = 64.9 (22nd), Cov = 63.6 (18th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - At NE, at GB, home vs IND, at NYJ, home vs DET, at DAL, home vs TEN, at JAX, home vs MIA

Seahawks - What started as great for Seattle has been tough sledding over the last two weeks with no sign of relief until their week 10 bye. Mike Macdonald and Ryan Grubb have made the Seahawks exciting again for fantasy football. Geno Smith leads an impressive WR trio for an offense that leads the league in Neutral Pass Rate. According to PFF, their passing attack is complemented by one of the best backfields in the NFL, which ranks first in Run Rating. The Achilles heel of this team may be their offensive line, which allowed 7 sacks in their latest contest versus the Giants. This issue makes it tough to fully trust in any of the WRs besides DK Metcalf, who is enjoying one of the best seasons of his career. In the year of our lord 2024, RBs are king, so put your faith in Walker and Charbonnet as they carry you to a championship.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.71 (1st), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 52.8 (27th), RunBlk = 66.4 (13th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Geno Smith = 73.8 (10th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 91.7 (1st), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 17.1 pts (27th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 71.7 (14th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 38 pts (3rd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 7.3 pts (22nd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 74.2 (5th), RunD = 68.5 (7th), PassRsh = 65.9 (19th), Cov = 75.5 (6th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - Home vs SF, at ATL, home vs BUF, home vs LAR, at SF, home vs ARI, at NYJ, at ARI, home vs GB    

Lions - Tattered pleather booths, “Higher” by Creed playing on the jukebox, an order of 50¢ boneless wings with an ice cold Bud, and watching smash-mouth football. No, you haven’t died and gone to Heaven, but Dan Campbell’s Lions may be the closest thing we get to paradise in this life. Like many other Superpower franchises, Detroit asserts its dominance by pummeling defenses with its rushing attack. Montgomery and Gibbs have hit the ground running, while the passing attack deciphers how to recapture the spark from 2023. Jameson Williams’ breakout season has been the lone bright spot of the passing offense this year. His speed and big-play ability are exactly what the Lions need while Goff, Amon-Ra, and LaPorta figure out how to assert their prowess as one of the best trios in football.  

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.48 (17th - tied), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 74.4 (6th), RunBlk = 75.4 (4th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Jared Goff = 54.6 (29th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 86.8 (5th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 27.4 pts (1st), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 73.3 (8th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 30.1 pts (13th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 6.1 pts (26th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 76.6 (2nd), RunD = 68.2 (8th), PassRsh = 85 (2nd), Cov = 68.6 (11th - tied), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - At DAL, at MIN, home vs TEN, at GB, at HOU, home vs JAX, at IND, home vs CHI, home vs GB    

Vikings - There is no one in the NFL who can stand against the Vikings! Led by a QB everyone believed to be dead, Kevin O’Connell has resurrected Sam Darnold’s career with a passing attack that pushes the ball deep down the throats of defenses. The only blunder more egregious than fading Justin Jefferson was drafting the Madden Cursed CMC. This is only further compounded by Aaron Jones’ excellent play, who at age 29 was the 10th-best RB before his injury. Behind Brian Flores’ exotic defense and O’Connell’s clear vision on offense, Minnesota could sustain their success on their narrow way to a Super Bowl.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.51 (11th - tied), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 68.6 (15th), RunBlk = 78 (3rd), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Sam Darnold = 65.8 (20th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 75.1 (18th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 22.1 pts (9th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 73 (10th - tied), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 27.5 pts (19th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 5.4 pts (30th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 71.2 (11th), RunD = 79.1 (2nd), PassRsh = 56.4 (28th), Cov = 74.9 (8th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - Home vs DET, at LAR, home vs IND, at JAX, at TEN, at CHI, home vs ARI, home vs ATL, home vs CHI

Works Cited

• PFF

• NFL Week 5 Recap - Fantasy Usage Model by Hayden Winks

https://underdognetwork.com/football/news/nfl-week-5-recap-fantasy-usage-model-2024

The Dossier

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Week 5 Waiver Targets

Waiver Targets

The South Harmon Agency has more high-tier operatives gathering intel than ever before. Be sure to keep your channel open and collect data from the various sources as it comes in. In terms of FAAB bidding, review your league’s previous waiver behavior to navigate the wire best. The waiver wire will become more bare as the season continues, especially in best ball formats.

ReDraft (most of these players will be rostered in Dynasty leagues)

• Dontayvion Wicks - 18% rostership, 15-18% FAAB (Erupted in wk 4 - 5/13 for 78 yds & 2 TDs. With Watson injured, Wicks can explode any given week on this high-flying offense with Love at QB.)

• Josh Downs - 28% rostership, 12-15% FAAB (Downs was a key factor in the Colts' upset win over the Steelers. Hauling in 8/9 for 82 yds & 1 TD, we believe Downs is just getting started with JT now injured.)

• Chase Brown - 57% rostership, 12-15% FAAB (We were wrong to advocate dropping him, but we blame the Bengals for waiting until wk 4 to utilize the explosive RB finally.)

• Tre Tucker - 19% rostership, 10-12% FAAB in Best Ball (Was under consideration last week, but now we have seen enough to recommend picking up the speedy WR. He should continue to produce as the big-play WR while Adams recovers from injury.)

• Trey Sermon - 4% rostership, spend 2-3% FAAB (This is a tricky situation: ARich can’t pass, JT is hurt, & Sermon isn’t that great of an RB. Perhaps it's best to target these other waivers.)

Dynasty

• Jeremy McNichols - 3% rostership, 8-10% FAAB in Best Ball only (Absolutely smashed filling in for Ekeler - 8 carries for 68 yds, 2 TDs. An explosive RB on one of the best rushing offenses is worth a pick-up.)

• Dare Ogunbowale - 11% rostership, 5-8% FAAB (Akers hasn’t done much filling in for Mixon the last 2 weeks. Pick up Dare for his receiving upside.)

• Justin Watson - 13% rostership, 3-5% FAAB (Watson is a downfield WR who thrives on splash plays during critical downs. Despite the injury to Rice, do not expect a major uptick for Watson.)

• Mecole Hardman/Skyy Moore/JuJu Smith-Schuster - 13-35% rostership, 0-1% FAAB (All these WRs could be total cones at this point in their careers, but at the rate the Chiefs are losing cornerstones of their offense, we fully expect Travis Kelce & Carson Steele to be the TE1 & RB1 from here on out.)

Expendable

Cut loose the following players before they compromise their rosters:

ReDraft

• Kirk Cousins - 41% rostership (The most underrated QB in the league does not look like a good fit for this Atlanta team. Keep him if you have no other choice.)

• Tyjae Spears - 65% rostership (Pollard has taken over the backfield for a Titans’ offense with zero upside.)

• Ezekiel Elliott - 64% rostership (From 51% snap share in wk 1 to 18% in wk 4, Elliott and the Cowboys' run game looks completely cooked.)

The Dossier

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