WK 4 - Besieged Powers

Good Franchises That Could Be Great in 2024

The Force is with you, young Skywalker. But you are not a Jedi yet.
Darth Vader - Star Wars: Episode V - The Empire Strikes Back

Image created by T-Rock

Logjammin’ 

I know why you are here. You’re craving a compelling story with high production value. You also appreciate an emotional connection, delivered through clever literary structures and thought-provoking themes.

“Fuck that! How much should I bid on Kareem Hunt!?” shouts the crowd from the Mutantverse. “Why don’t the Colts make Joe Flacco the starter??? Have they seen ARich pass the ball?!”

Regrettably, the standards have fallen with the written medium while competing with YouTube. The market has clarified that anything more than “buy, sell, sit, start, and rankings” wastes the audience’s time. Advancements in analytics and tools equip fantasy players to compete unlike ever before. But does access to technology and content lead to more championships for managers? 

Yes and no. Having well-researched information from trusted sources can help players make better decisions. But we are an over-stimulated culture, over-burdened with anxiety, and incapable of patience. We can find this same experience in many other aspects of our culture. Take, for instance, the adult entertainment industry. 

Due in part to the ease of access and proliferation of explicit content, the average male lasts less than five minutes in bed and is often left with a profound sense of fatigue and a feeling of emptiness (not that I would know). Some subjects have described this sensation as “a loss of essence.” This phenomenon is strikingly similar to what Fantasy Psychologists have coined “Post-Trade Clarity.” Fantasy addicts, often referred to as “degenerates,” on average consume 2-4 hours of fantasy content per day, leading to idealized and usually unrealistic standards for their rosters. Now with a picture in mind of what a “successful” roster construction looks like, degenerates become obsessed with improving their team, frequently spending hours that stretch late into the early morning hunting for the perfect trade. Sadly, there are detrimental effects to this type of behavior, including but not limited to: 

• Pathological Trading: Managers who believe their own lies regarding player valuations in order to be more convincing salesmen in trade talks. 

• KTC Dissociation: The inability to separate KTC’s Trade Calculator values from reality. 

• Contending Impostorism: Belief that your team is championship caliber despite being outside the top three in scoring.

• Asset Hoarding Disorder: A strong emotional attachment to players that skews their market value, often leading to unrealistic prices and holding players far past their sell windows.

These conditions, shortness of QBs in superflex leagues, Post Injury Stress Disorder, and many other symptoms have become pervasive in fantasy football. As someone who has lived with these plights for nearly twenty years, I recognize that acknowledging the issues is the first step in treatment. I have a long road to recovery.

SITREP - Besieged Powers

The following teams are often good, and occasionally great. However, similar to me regarding math problems and women in school, these franchises need help. They haven’t cracked the code yet to operate as a cohesive ensemble, and instead revolve their offense around one or two players. Overall, they haven't reached their full potential and are lacking consistency. With that said, these offenses still showcase some of the best players in the entire league, and it will be only a matter of time for some of these teams to ramp up and join the Superpowers.

Chiefs - Beginning with the positives, Steve Spagnuolo doesn’t get nearly enough recognition as one of the best DCs in the NFL. His coaching, along with Andy Reid and Mahomes, is a major reason the Chiefs can even come close to creating a dyasty. Unfortunately, the same can not be said of Matt Nagy as the OC. Since replacing Eric Bieniemy, Mahomes’ fantasy production has dropped dramatically (8th in 2023, 16th in 2024). Mahomes was a top 4 fantasy QB in 4/5 years under Bieniemy. Funneling the entire offense through Rashee Rice and Isiah Pacheco was only great for Rice and Pacheco owners until they were lost to injury. Watching Mahomes, it is clear he is still the best QB in the NFL. Trading for the QB now in hopes of an OC change next season is a no-brainer move, but still remains difficult. Managers don’t want to trade for the depressed production, and owners don’t want to trade at any discount. It remains to be seen if Travis Kelce and Kareem Hunt have aged like fine wine or will play like piss and vineagar.   

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.51 (11th in NFL), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 67.5 (17th), RunBlk = 68.2 (10th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Patrick Mahomes = 70.7 (16th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 77.5 (13th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 21.6 pts (9th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 69.1 (17th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 19.5 pts (28th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 10 pts (5th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 69.3 (14th), RunD = 67.2 (9th), PassRsh = 74.1 (7th), Cov = 62.1 (21st), (Courtesy PFF) 

Upcoming Schedule - Home vs NO, at SF, at LV, home vs TB, home vs DEN, at BUF, at CAR, home vs LV, home vs LAC  

Cowboys - The Cowboys are a great example of how having the WORST defense in the league can cripple an offense. At 29th in time of possession, and one of the worst run games in the league, Dallas becomes pigeonholed on offense. With an offensive line that has taken a huge step back since last year, defenses can pin their ears back and dial up blitzes all game long. Dak has played well despite the team’s deficiencies, including as a top-10 passer when facing pressure and the blitz. The Cowboys are one of the few teams that took a glaring step back during the offseason and it's showing up now.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.55 (5th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 63.5 (21st), RunBlk = 58.7 (24th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Dak Prescott = 64.5 (25th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 67.2 (25th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 16.8 pts (29th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 66.6 (19th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 30.3 pts (8th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 9.6 pts (7th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 52 (32nd), RunD = 37.7 (32nd), PassRsh = 65 (21st), Cov = 59.2 (23rd), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - At PIT, home vs DET, at SF, at ATL, home vs PHI, home vs HOU, at WAS, home vs NYG, home vs CIN  

Bills - No QB is playing better than Josh Allen. With a rag-tag group of slot receivers and a defense that lost a lot of players to free agency, many predicted a rough 2024 for the Bills. A lot of props need to be given to the defensive coaches for developing their young talent, and a lot more kudos to Joe Brady’s work with the offense and James Cook. Not much should be made of the complete dismantling by Baltimore; the Ravens are going to expose a lot of teams with Derrick Henry.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.52 (9th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 71.6 (9th), RunBlk = 59.3 (22nd), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Josh Allen = 72.6 (14th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 86.3 (4th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 19.3 pts (18th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 69.4 (15th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 20.2 pts (27th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 8.2 pts (15th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 62.5 (22nd), RunD = 50.9 (28th), PassRsh = 75.5 (6th), Cov = 59 (24th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - At HOU, home vs SEA, home vs MIA, at IND, home vs KC, home vs SF, at LAR, at DET, home vs NE  

Cardinals - Similar to the Cowboys, the Cardinals are hampered by one of the worst defenses in the league. With the last two blowout losses, ¾ of the game recaps has been watching the defense get eviscerated by opposing offenses. However, unlike Dallas, Arizona has a competent run game with one of the must underrated RBs in football, James Conner. Led by Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride, the Cardinals should have one of the best air raids in the league. But through scheme, QB chemistry, or poor coaching, the Cardinals haven’t been anywhere close to the air show we expected.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.45 (22nd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 68.8 (13th), RunBlk = 68.1 (11th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Kyler Murray = 76.1 (9th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 71.8 (20th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 18.3 pts (24th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 74.4 (6th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 24.2 pts (21st), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 8.9 pts (10th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 54.7 (30th), RunD = 59.9 (18th), PassRsh = 54.4 (30th), Cov = 50.6 (28th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - At SF, at GB, home vs LAC, at MIA, home vs CHI, home vs NYJ, at SEA, at MIN, home vs SEA    

Rams - The Los Angeles Rams are the ultimate “what could have been” team of 2024. Not since the Red Wedding has there been a more heartbreaking loss to a team than what the Rams have suffered with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. Tutu Atwell and Jordan Whittington have done their best to fill in, but are a far cry from the talents of their injured teammates. Compounding these backbreakers have been injuries and poor play from the offensive line, giving Stafford a nearly impossible hill to climb. Picking up from where he left off last season, Kyren Williams has been the lone bright spot so far this year. As a dual-threat RB, Kyren can be utilized on offense no matter the game script, making him one of the most valuable RBs in fantasy. With a talented Blake Corum still waiting in the wings for his shot, we fully expect to see the McVay-led Rams join the Superpowers once Puka and Kupp return. 

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.58 (3rd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 39.6 (32nd), RunBlk = 65.1 (14th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Matthew Stafford = 59.8 (31st), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 74.6 (17th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 21.9 pts (5th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 73.9 (7th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 32.1 pts (6th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 6.3 pts (26th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 58.6 (26th), RunD = 60.8 (16th), PassRsh = 68.9 (14th), Cov = 48.3 (29th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - Home vs GB, home vs LV, home vs MIN, at SEA, home vs MIA, at NE, home vs PHI, at NO, home vs BUF

Ravens - Derrick Henry in purple and black is the most beautiful thing we’ve seen in Baltimore since the days of Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. At 30 years old, the immortal King could have the best season of his Hall of Fame career. The two-time MVP Lamar Jackson is playing lights out as one of the greatest QBs we have ever seen. So why isn’t this team ranked amongst the Superpowers? The passing attack for Baltimore has been nonexistent through the first quarter of the season, rendering Zay Flowers as an upside FLEX option. In strong contention for the most disappointing healthy player in 2024 is Mark Andrews. His 6/9 for 65 scoreless yards through four games is criminal. Isaiah Likely may be the Ravens TE of the future, but what does it matter?

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.35 (32nd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 78.1 (3rd), RunBlk = 76.3 (3rd), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Lamar Jackson = 79 (6th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 88.8 (2nd), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 22.9 pts (4th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 69.2 (16th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 17 pts (31st), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 9.7 pts (6th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 72.8 (6th-tied), RunD = 75.5 (3rd), PassRsh = 71.4 (10th), Cov = 67.2 (15th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - Home vs CIN, home vs WAS, at TB, home vs CLE, at DEN, at CIN, home vs PIT, at LAC, home vs PHI

Works Cited

• PFF

• NFL Week 4 Recap - Fantasy Usage Model by Hayden Winks

https://underdognetwork.com/football/analysis/nfl-week-4-recap-fantasy-usage-model-2024

The Dossier

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Week 4 Waiver Targets

Waiver Targets

The South Harmon Agency has more high-tier operatives gathering intel than ever before. Be sure to keep your channel open and collect data from the various sources as it comes in. In terms of FAAB bidding, review your league’s previous waiver behavior to navigate the wire best. The waiver wire will become more bare as the season continues, especially in best ball formats.

ReDraft (most of these players will be rostered in Dynasty leagues)

• Jauan Jennings - 44% rostership, spend 15-18% FAAB (Deebo & Kittle being ruled out late last week made Jauan a must-add. Jennings is unlikely to replicate his colossal Wk 3 performance, but he is an easy FLEX play any time SF is down a starter (which is often))

• Michael Wilson - 15% rostership, 12-15% FAAB (McBride is likely out with a concussion in Wk 4, elevating Michael Wilson to WR3 territory against a putrid WAS def)

• Xavier Legette - 35% rostership, 8-10% FAAB in Best Ball (With Andy Dalton, the Panthers are no longer a clown show on offense, and with Thielen likely missing significant time, Legette could see more opportunity)

• Allen Lazard - 39% rostership, 5-8% FAAB (Rodgers is taking the easy looks to the Lizard King while defenses scheme against Garrett Wilson)

• Tyler Conklin - 14% rostership, 5-8% FAAB (Likely dropped after two abysmal weeks, Conklin is a serviceable option at a wasteland position)

• Brenton Strange - 35% rostership, 3-5% FAAB (With Engram out for an undefined period, Strange becomes the #2-3 option on an offense devoid of playmakers)

• Antonio Gibson - 27% rostership, 0-5% FAAB (With bye weeks on the horizon and injuries soon to follow, you can do worse than Gibson. He’s carved out a key pass-catching role on an offense that doesn’t pass the ball very far down the field)

• Jordan Akins - 3% rostership, 0% FAAB (Has 12 targets and 8 catches through 3 games, which is solid enough in 2024. Enjoy another few weeks of production before Njoku returns to the fold)

Dynasty

• Calvin Austin - 31% rostership, 5-8% FAAB in Best Ball only (He played in only 54% of the snaps in Wk 3, but the Steelers have no one else at WR outside of Pickens)

• Elijah Higgins - 9% rostership, 5% FAAB (Higgins is the next man up at TE with McBride likely to miss their juicy matchup against WAS in Wk. 4. Higgins has athletic upside, but temper expectations with MHJ, Wilson, & Dortch all likely ahead of him)

• Johnny Wilson- 36% rostership, 0-5% FAAB (The Eagles could wait until after their Wk 5 bye to bring back both AJ Brown & DeVonta Smith. This gives the 6’6” 228 lb mutant WR Johnny Wilson a chance, but Philly will likely run the ball down TB’s throat)

• Brock Wright - 3% rostership, 0-3% FAAB (The Lions appear to operate best running the ball, but if LaPorta misses time, Brock could see decent touches)

Expendable

Cut loose the following players before they compromise their rosters:

ReDraft

• Justin Herbert - 61% rostership (Outside of the top 24, he will be severely limited by injuries, the run-first offense, and a lack of explosive pass-catchers. Trade him for Andy Dalton)

• Zamir White - 82% rostership (He’s the worst starting RB in the league. Drop him as a waiver wire booby trap)

• Tyler Allgeier - 36% rostership (Even if Bijan gets hurt, what is the upside?)

• Jaleel McLaughlin - 34% rostership (DEN has the worst run game in the NFL)

• Jaylen Warren - 75% rostership (Likely not fully recovered from his knee injury, he can be dropped if he can’t be traded)

• Gus Edwards - 60% rostership (Gus has looked like an absolute cone in 2024, forcing J.K. into a bell-cow role)

• Khalil Herbert - 13% rostership (The Bears couldn’t run the ball if their lives depended on it)

• Chase Brown - 56% rostership (The Bengals have zero faith in Chase Brown)

• Trey Benson - 49% rostership (3% of the touches in Wk. 3, the Cardinals are in no hurry to feature the explosive RB)

• Blake Corum - 44% rostership (McVay lied to us all Summer about how much he loves Corum. I should have traded him for Brian Robinson plus a 3rd when I had the chance)

• NE WRs - (These receivers are closer to Charlies than Betas)

• IND WRs - (Hold onto Pittman for one more week, but everyone else is droppable. Waterboarding, electroshock, and watching ARich pass the ball have all been deemed as permissible enhanced interrogation techniques for our Agency)

The Dossier

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Check out the latest from South Harmon

Mike & ATM: https://www.youtube.com/live/2Fz4FyMV2lQ?si=5afTYCJNiQsZwed7

ATM: https://youtu.be/7hBrBU2xZsU?si=IH9_bhk_qf7pToo3

Matty: https://www.youtube.com/live/es30r3DfdEc?si=UyKH1HkiovsNDi1U

Fizzle: https://www.youtube.com/live/ypbi15JQL1w?si=dGtF-GgmvZAzyIGG

Cody & Matty: https://www.youtube.com/live/dcXCATlxE88?si=z5it78n3X293Tni8

Fizzle & Cody: https://www.youtube.com/live/SzUsNN4T0BE?si=XzKurG_K1Vz4SUz9

Koopa: https://open.spotify.com/episode/6oyQQrGN0Df4jEXxNACxbD?si=69de6cef957743f9

Cody & Matty: https://open.spotify.com/episode/3hqBgzsoLFYwoH7gVBzqU2?si=c864c0ddd6ed47e5

Eric: https://open.spotify.com/episode/4smuMw8qoZI0M6caY6eOfU?si=b55a3f0e976d4f6a

Matt & Pat: https://open.spotify.com/episode/5PN6cJGP2YNjLeJYYg5gMv?si=9c1c6dc8e9034d11