WK 2 - Failed States
Leagues across the globe are gripped with mayhem. Owners have input launch codes to nuke their rosters. Managers everywhere are doing their best Will Levis impersonation at their local Walmarts. The Field Surveillance Department can barely keep up with the flood of reports:
The Worst Franchises In 2024
You know what kind of plan never fails? No plan. No plan at all. You know why? Because life cannot be planned.
Ki-taek - Parasite
Briefing
Leagues across the globe are gripped with mayhem. Owners have input launch codes to nuke their rosters. Managers everywhere are doing their best Will Levis impersonation at their local Walmarts. The Field Surveillance Department can barely keep up with the flood of reports:
“CMC usurped, Jordan Mason, rising to legitimate power as RB1”
“Believed deceased, Sam Darnold and J.K. Dobbins leading separate revolutions in the North and West”
“The Miami Special Forces on the verge of disbanding after losing leader”
“The Shock Troop Saints have launched a surprise offensive from the South”
And we just received word, “Bryce Young, OUT. Andy Dalton, IN.”
Most concerning is the level of unrest amongst our Field Agents. Like throwing water onto a grease fire, some of their panic has resulted in ill-advised trades. Remember, Agency Protocol dictates:
Adhering to the Trade Schedule
Weeks 1-2 - Be willing to trade a 3rd
Weeks 3-4 - Be willing to trade 2x 3rds
Weeks 5-8 - Be willing to trade a 2nd
Weeks 9-12 - Be willing to trade 2x 2nds (or 1x early 2nd)
Weeks 13-16 - Be willing to trade a 1st
Trading for a player worth a 2nd or more early in the season is a recipe for disaster. With limited resources, field agents cannot afford to take unnecessary risks due to the prevalence of injuries. The Agency broke the Preseason protocol of trading strictly for picks and instead traded for a player (De’Von Achane for Michael Pittman). This breach in security is luckily more embarrassing than damaging, but the Trade Series Field Manuals released earlier this year should have been consulted nonetheless. The best Operators will stay patient and make moves at the last possible moment
Anticipate Bounce Backs
Amon-Ra St. Brown - 11/19 for 119 yds (Wk 1 - 3/6 for 13 yds)
Marvin Harrison Jr - 4/8 for 130 yds, 2 TDs (Wk 1 - 1/3 for 4 yds)
Davante Adams - 9/12 for 110 yds, 1 TD (Wk 1 - 5/6 for 59 yds)
DK Metcalf - 10/14 for 129 yds, 1 TD (Wk 1 - 3/4 for 29 yds)
Zay Flowers - 7/11 for 91 yds, 1 TD (Wk 1 - 6/10 for 37 yds)
Davante Adams - 9/12 for 110 yds, 1 TD (Wk 1 - 5/6 for 59 yds)
JSN - 12/16 for 117 yds (Wk 1 - 2/2 for 19 yds)
Derrick Henry - 18 for 84 yds, 1 TD (Wk 1 - 13 for 46 yds, 1 TD)
Kyler Murray - 17/21 for 266 yds, 3 TDs (59 yds rushing) (Wk 1 - 162 passing yds, 1 TD (57 yds rushing))
Joe Burrow - 23/36 for 258 yds, 2 TDs (Wk 1 - 164 passing yds (15 yds rushing))
Trey McBride - 6/6 for 67 yds (Wk 1 - 5/9 for 30 yds)
An abundance of players cost managers week 1, but none of them cost a championship. More important than a player’s performance is an assessment of their team environment (neutral pass rate, QB play, OLine rating, defense, etc.). This is the purpose of the Team SITREPs preceding the player Bona Fides and Bulletins. Certain situations are more worrisome (Tua’s concussions) in terms of how they will affect other assets, making it all the more critical to consider various scenarios and possible outcomes. In these situations, The Agency advises:
Steadfast Patience - Agents plan, adapt, and regroup when a situation doesn’t go their way. Do not force the issue - better to look forward to the next opportunity than try to fix the current one. There will always be more opportunities.
Don’t Blow Your Cover - Stop seeking trades or putting players on the block in the wake of any negative news. If you have to convince your trade partner of something you wouldn’t do personally, you’re operating out of desperation. Your leaguemates will smell the blood in the water and they will come to dismantle your team of its best assets.
SITREP - Failed States
In the most extreme and final phase of failure, the following organizations can no longer protect their players from the doom they face every Sunday, and they have lost all respect from their citizen fans. In the world of fantasy, players on these teams should be avoided like the plague, albeit a few elite players who can withstand the calamity of these franchises.
Panthers - Much will be said of Bryce Young’s horrific QB play, but people who know football will discern he has been nothing more than a puppet leader of a horrifically run franchise. Their defense can't generate pressure, can't cover, & is devoid of talent. This side of the ball will be the Achilles heel of the team if they can't stop opposing teams & if the Panthers are down multiple scores early on. This forces the offense to be in catch-up mode early on.
Bryce looks shell-shocked trying to operate Canales’ offense. Completely unsettled, he tends to overthrow his receivers, often resulting in picks. I've never seen an offense with so many beta's; absolutely no explosive playmakers. There will be no chance of a run game if the team continues to be down by 3 TDs heading into halftime.
Instead of looking forward to the latter half of the season, the Panthers should be looking forward to next season.
**UPDATE** A new hero has risen to end the brutal tenure of Bryce Young. Despite Bryce being one of our top-rated QBs out of college, there is only so much torture a human can withstand, and the most merciful thing for Bryce is to be benched by Canales. Young still has a future somewhere else. As someone who lost their soul long ago in Cincinnati, Dalton can be thrown out to the wolves without sympathy or a second thought. The difference at QB will be night and day with the ghost mercenary who has nothing to lose. Is he good enough to elevate this team out of the Failed State tier? No, he's not God. Will he keep it close against a stretch of subpar teams and have some QB1 performances? Absolutely! Diontae, Chuba, and the rest of the Panthers' playmakers are no longer unstartable.
Neutral Pass Rate - 0.44 (22nd in NFL), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
OLine Rating - PassBlk = 76.7 (5th), RunBlk = 62.5 (21st), (Courtesy PFF)
QB Rating - Bryce Young = 31.8 (38th, Dead Last), (Courtesy PFF)
Run Rating - 65 (24th), (Courtesy PFF)
RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 12.2 pts (31st), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Receiving Rating - 53.7 (32nd), (Courtesy PFF)
WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 24.3 pts (17th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 4.1 pts (32nd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Defense - Overall = 47.6 (32nd), RunD = 51.3 (26th), PassRsh = 49.9 (32nd), Cov = 49.9 (28th), (Courtesy PFF)
Upcoming Schedule - At LV, home vs CIN, at CHI, home vs ATL, at WAS, at DEN, home vs NO, home vs NYG, home vs KC
Giants - The PFF grade doesn’t match what we saw from the Giants' offensive line. The line plays like they hate their QB, inviting every pass-rusher to a free lane to smash their signal caller. When he's not getting killed, Daniel Jones throws like he's cross-eyed, routinely missing WRs by wide margins. Malik Nabers is the lone bright spot of this team, but we fear that his talent isn't enough to overcome the ineptitude of this offense. The Giants' 4th-highest WR Fantasy Usage speaks to how exceptional Malik is as a talent. Brian Burns left a Hellhole in Carolina only to wind up in Purgatory in New York.
Neutral Pass Rate - 0.42 (25th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
OLine Rating - PassBlk = 76.3 (5th), RunBlk = 49.6 (30th), (Courtesy PFF)
QB Rating - Daniel Jones = 61.1 (21st), (Courtesy PFF)
Run Rating - 69.5 (18th), (Courtesy PFF)
RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 14.9 pts (29th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Receiving Rating - 62.3 (22nd), (Courtesy PFF)
WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 35.4 pts (4th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 6.3 pts (18th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Defense - Overall = 61.4 (19th), RunD = 52.1 (25th), PassRsh = 66.2 (14th), Cov = 62.8 (20th), (Courtesy PFF)
Upcoming Schedule - At CLE, home vs DAL, at SEA, home vs CIN, home vs PHI, at PIT, home vs WAS, at CAR, home vs TB
Commanders - Jayden Daniels’ is in a very tough spot: he has an awful offensive line and his receivers are usually covered. This leads to him tucking and running on most plays, which often results in big chunk plays for the talented rushing QB. The Commanders are completely devoted to their two-headed rushing attack with Brian Robinson and Daniels as the entirety of their offense. Their commitment to the run-game is impressive considering how many points they can be down thanks to their infamous defense. We would like to recommend the Medal of Honor for the bravery and valor Terry McLaurin has demonstrated for so many years in one of the most hostile environments in all of sports.
Neutral Pass Rate - 0.49 (13th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
OLine Rating - PassBlk = 63.5 (21st), RunBlk = 55.8 (27th), (Courtesy PFF)
QB Rating - Daniel Jones = 47.7 (32nd), (Courtesy PFF)
Run Rating - 76.6 (8th), (Courtesy PFF)
RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 22.6 pts (7th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Receiving Rating - 65.7 (16th), (Courtesy PFF)
WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 18.9 pts (27th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 6 pts (19th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Defense - Overall = 52.5 (31st), RunD = 65 (11th), PassRsh = 54.9 (29th), Cov = 44 (32nd), (Courtesy PFF)
Upcoming Schedule - At CIN, at ARI, home vs CLE, at BAL, home vs CAR, home vs CHI, at NYG, home vs PIT, at PHI
Broncos - Every drop back to pass looks like an impending car wreck with how often their receivers are blown up on slant routes. Unfortunately, it appears short passes and dump-offs are the only things Bo Nix can handle at this point. Anything further than 20 yards down the field would likely result in Bo Nix losing the interception battle to Hellmann’s Brains of the Turnover Titans. The Broncos line ranks dead last in run blocking, ruining any chance of a viable RB to operate outside of pass-catching opportunities. With Audric Estime on IR, there aren't any players on the Broncos that strike fear into opposing defenses.
Neutral Pass Rate - 0.46 (19th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
OLine Rating - PassBlk = 62.1 (22nd), RunBlk = 42 (32nd), (Courtesy PFF)
QB Rating - Bo Nix = 41.6 (37th, last if you don’t count Bryce Young), (Courtesy PFF)
Run Rating - 56.3 (31st), (Courtesy PFF)
RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 17.3 pts (25th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Receiving Rating - 56 (29th), (Courtesy PFF)
WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 29.4 pts (10th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 8.2 pts (12th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Defense - Overall = 54.4 (29th), RunD = 52.7 (23rd), PassRsh = 64.5 (18th), Cov = 55.3 (27th), (Courtesy PFF)
Upcoming Schedule - At TB, at NYJ, home vs LV, home vs LAC, at NO, home vs CAR, at BAL, at KC, home vs ATL
Jaguars - The Jaguars have the QB & head coach to compete for a playoff spot. The wide gap between their expectations and on-field product makes them the most disappointing team of this tier. The offensive line makes Trevor Lawrence worse than he is. Etienne’s performance is concerning compared to his #3 RB level of play in 2023. With Evan Engram out with a hamstring injury and Christian Kirk taking notes from ETN, the lone bright spot of this offense is Brian Thomas Jr. He is in a race to be one of the best rookies in 2024. The reign of Trevor Targaryen does not look promising in 2024.
Neutral Pass Rate - 0.24 (32nd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
OLine Rating - PassBlk = 59.4 (25th), RunBlk = 51.3 (29th), (Courtesy PFF)
QB Rating - Trevor Lawrence = 69.4 (12th), (Courtesy PFF)
Run Rating - 80.6 (4th), (Courtesy PFF)
RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 19.8 pts (15th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Receiving Rating - 63.1 (21st), (Courtesy PFF)
WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 20.2 pts (24th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 8.3 pts (11th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Defense - Overall = 59.2 (21st), RunD = 54.3 (22nd), PassRsh = 66.1 (15th), Cov = 58.9 (22nd), (Courtesy PFF)
Upcoming Schedule - At BUF, at HOU, home vs IND, at CHI, home vs NE, home vs GB, at PHI, home vs MIN, at DET
Titans - Is the Titan's defense elite? Not according to PFF. It appears that this is a trick of the mind, mainly due to their herculean efforts to cover up the treachery perpetrated by their saboteur QB, who has achieved new heights of destruction never thought possible. Despite a subpar offensive line and an average cast of playmakers, Levis’s policy of turnovers is unconscionable and will not stand for much longer. Pick up Mason Rudolph now for free in Dynasty Best Ball leagues.
Neutral Pass Rate - 0.47 (17th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
OLine Rating - PassBlk = 57.6 (26th), RunBlk = 64 (17th), (Courtesy PFF)
QB Rating - Will Levis = 42.1 (36th), (Courtesy PFF)
Run Rating - 74.2 (13th), (Courtesy PFF)
RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 20.6 pts (12th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Receiving Rating - 60.1 (26th), (Courtesy PFF)
WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 20.8 pts (22nd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 5.4 pts (24th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Defense - Overall = 54.1 (30th), RunD = 39.8 (31st), PassRsh = 60.2 (25th), Cov = 62.8 (20th), (Courtesy PFF)
Upcoming Schedule - home vs GB, at MIA, home vs IND, at BUF, at DET, home vs NE, at LAC, home vs MIN, at HOU
Browns - With plenty of offensive talent and an elite defense, the Browns have the best overall roster in this tier. This team lives and dies (mainly dies) off of the erratic play of their QB, Deshaun Watson. Contributing to the lethargy of this offense is the lack of health of key linemen. Watson has used his legs to compensate and looked to newcomer Jerry Judy in critical situations, but this isn't enough. The Browns can beat most teams when playing at their best, but we have little confidence Watson will consistently put his best foot forward.
Neutral Pass Rate - 0.62 (2nd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
OLine Rating - PassBlk = 56.3 (27th), RunBlk = 67.2 (13th), (Courtesy PFF)
QB Rating - Deshaun Watson = 68.6 (14th), (Courtesy PFF)
Run Rating - 61.5 (26th), (Courtesy PFF)
RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 19 pts (19th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Receiving Rating - 55.2 (30th), (Courtesy PFF)
WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 32.7 pts (5th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 5.8 pts (20th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)
Defense - Overall = 73.4 (8th), RunD = 60.7 (13th), PassRsh = 77.7 (3rd), Cov = 73.7 (9th), (Courtesy PFF)
Upcoming Schedule - Home vs NYG, at LV, at WAS, at PHI, home vs CIN, home vs BAL, home vs LAC, at NO, home vs PIT
Works Cited
PFF
NFL Week 2 Recap - Fantasy Usage Model by Hayden Winks
https://underdognetwork.com/football/analysis/nfl-week-2-recap-fantasy-usage-model-2024
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