Agency Bulletin

During the 2023 Campaign, our Agency identified De’Von Achane, Kyren Williams, Alvin Kamara, David Montgomery, Rachaad White, D’Andre Swift, Josh Jacobs, Tony Pollard, and Austin Ekeler as RB Interests in the Week 13 Dossier. These RBs were ranked at the time of the week 13 Agency Bulletin and finished as follows in PPR leagues: Achane 27th (finished 24th), Kyren 12th (finished 5th), Kamara 4th (finished 9th), Montgomery 19th (finished 18th), Rachaad 5th (finished 6th), Swift 14th (finished 17th), Jacobs 9th (finished 23rd), Pollard 11th (finished 15th), and Ekeler 26th (finished 25th). Learning from last season, analytics can help identify the top-performing players, but their situation determines a player’s finish.

Kyren Williams was our Agency’s largest victory from the 2023 Buy List. He finished the final 6 weeks of the season as the RB1, RB9, RB18, RB5, RB12, and RB1. Kyren’s 6 TDs and insane snap share (86.6% avg) in the final five weeks were pivotal for his RB5 finish.

Achane, Montgomery, White, and Ekeler all managed to maintain their position in the RB standings. Mostert was a monster in the final 6 weeks of the season, scoring 7 touchdowns as the clear goal-line back compared to the 3 TDs that Achane scored. Similarly, Gibbs was the preferred back for Detroit in the final portion of the regular season, outpacing Montgomery in both snap share and TDs. Rachaad was decent until the championship when he finished as the RB38 for that pivotal week. The Chargers became a complete dumpster fire in the final month of the season and Ekeler went down with the sinking ship.

Unfortunately, Kamara, Swift, and Pollard fell off in the season's final stretch. Kamara’s worst games of the season came in the final two weeks when he was needed most. Going up against the red-hot Rams offense, the Saints fell behind early and couldn’t get anything going with Kamara in week 16. He exited the following week with an injury versus the Buccaneers. The Eagles were unable to deploy their RBs effectively when they fell behind in contests, and ultimately Swift’s production took a turn for the worst while the team lost 5 of their final 7 games. The Cowboys flipped a switch with their passing game and completely committed to Prescott and Lamb as their winning formula. Without the necessary volume and goalline opportunities, Pollard’s upside shriveled up fast under the heat of a pass-first offense.

Jacobs received the kiss of death upon publication and missed the remainder of the season with injury.

With this knowledge in mind, the following assets are in consideration for your Rest-Of-Season Mission. The WoRP values are based upon 12 team leagues, start 10, 25-player rosters, PPR, Lineup, and Best Ball. Do not engage in a trade until the following intel & parameters have been carefully reviewed:

WoRP - Scoring settings & team needs will dictate which assets to pursue. WoRP is a valuable resource in not only establishing priority targets but also secondary and backup options if necessary. This resource can only be accessed through: https://www.southharmonff.com/worp

Managers to Target - Begin negotiations with managers on the opposite side of the standings. If your roster is rebuilding, prioritize trading with teams in the middle who are desperate to contend & whose picks have higher upside. Managers at the bottom of the standings will become more eager to trade away their players to acquire picks as the season progresses. If your roster is in the middle, negotiate with other middling teams. If you are unable to acquire players to contend, then adapt and pursue the other direction with acquiring picks.

Scouting Weeks 12-17 - Prioritize the players with the best matchups during the most critical stage of the season.

FantasyCalc/KeepTradeCut - Where an asset ranks in the field ultimately determines its value. Dynasty Rankings and The Trade Database (which lists the most recent acquisitions of the asset of interest) are invaluable resources in leveraging suitable deals.

Trading Resources - Includes The Trade Checklist, Proactive Trading, Passive Trading, and Trading Stats

https://www.southharmonff.com/articles/category/The+Trading+Series

Buying Players Schedule

Weeks 1-2 - Be willing to trade a 3rd
Weeks 3-4 - Be willing to trade 2x 3rds
Weeks 5-8 - Be willing to trade a 2nd
Weeks 9-12 - Be willing to trade 2x 2nds (or 1x early 2nd)
Weeks 13-16- Be willing to trade a 1st

RB

The One and Only True King

In 2020, Derrick Henry had one of the greatest seasons ever by a RB. Through 13 games he had 297 attempts for 1,532 rushing yards (5.2 YPC) and 14 rushing TDs (109 receiving yards). That year, Henry finished the season with 397 attempts for 2,027 rushing yards (5.36 YPC) and 17 TDs (114 receiving yards). In 2024, Henry has 240 attempts for 1,407 rushing yards (5.86 YPC) and 13 rushing TDs (125 receiving yards & 2 TDs). But what is most exciting besides being on pace for having the best season of his career is that Winter Has Come. Henry is a conqueror in December, averaging 89.3 yards and 0.97 TDs per game over his career in the final month of the year. To put that in perspective, Henry’s December averages overshadow the likes of Emmitt, LT, Peterson, Payton, TD, Holmes, O.J., Faulk, and Dorsett. Henry is in the same rarified air as Dickerson and Sayers during the holiday month, with only the likes of Jim Brown and Barry Sanders being better.

This season, King Henry leads NFL RBs in TDs and is 4th in red zone touches. The Ravens are facing a Giants team in week 15, who are giving up an average of 152.5 rushing yards to opposing runnings backs over their last month of games. And in championship week, Henry gets to face an old foe in the Houston Texans, where he has averaged 102.2 rushing yards and 0.9 TDs. If Derrick Henry isn’t on your team, then pray you do not face him on the playoff battlefield. Long May He Reign.

One Shot Wonders

The biggest surprise this year at the running back position is Chuba Hubbard. Despite playing for the worst team in the NFL, Chuba is 8th amongst RBs with 8 TDs, has a 73.1% snap share, and is 9th in red zone touches with 38. Chuba doesn’t boast elite production in the receiving game, but with the 4th best production on the 2nd best usage amongst runners according to Hayden Winks of Underdog, he is the only hope the Panthers have on offense. Carolina has a tough matchup in week 14 against the Eagles, but their upcoming games versus the Cowboys, Cardinals, and Buccaneers are one of the best playoff schedules in fantasy. Chuba has a future time-share with Jonathon Brooks, but in 2024 Hubbard is worth the risk if he can be acquired for less than 2x 2nds.

Since joining the Cardinals, James Conner has been one of the most consistent RBs in fantasy football. On track for another great season, Conner ranks in the top 12 in both snap share (65.5%) and red zone touches (36). A player with a history of injuries and missed games, Conner has remained durable this season and hasn’t missed a game yet (knock on wood). With the Cardinals in prime position to lock up the NFC West, and a fantasy playoff schedule that includes the Patriots, Panthers, and Rams, you can feel confident parting with a 2nd round pick to acquire the services of the Red Sea RB.

Perhaps the most curious name on our list of potential league winners is Chase Brown. Despite playing for one of the top passing teams in the league, Brown surprisingly ranks outside the top 12 in target share amongst running backs. Instead, Chase Brown has been the MOST productive RB over the last 4 weeks (according to Winks) purely on the ground. With an 84.8% snap share over the past month, which ranks only behind Jonathan Taylor and Chuba Hubbard, the Cincy RB has been virtually matchup-proof. With so many teams abandoning their runners in the face of negative game scripts, having the security of a player like Chase Brown is a cheat code in the fantasy playoffs.

Talented RBs with Risk

Returning to the RB Buy List, and playing at a higher level than he did last season, is Alvin Kamara. Through 11 games, Kamara accumulated 630 yards and 5 TDs on the ground and 446 yards and 1 TD through the air in 2023. This season, Kamara has amassed 894 yards and 6 TDs rushing, with an additional 450 yards and 1 TD receiving. One of the greatest duel-threat RBs of all time, Kamara is on pace for his FIRST 1,000-yard rushing season! With MVS and Juwan Johnson being the only other weapons on offense, the Saints will continue to lean heavily upon their franchise legend (73.3% snap share = 6th in the NFL). Kamara’s 22.9% target share is a whopping 4% higher than the next closest RB at 18.8% (CMC) and provides the Saint a relatively safe floor regardless of the game script. With prime matchups against the Giants and Raiders in weeks 14 and 17 respectively, Kamara could be a riskier play versus a dominant Commanders and Packers team in weeks 15 and 16. Being willing to trade a late 1st for one of the greatest and most underrated RBs of his generation.

Another buy from last year, and still outperforming expectations, is Kyren Williams. Similar to Chase Brown, Kyren plays for a Rams team that passes the ball more than just about any other team in the league and is not a factor in the receiving game (8% tgt share = 32nd). Although Kyren ranks outside the elite tier in some categories, the Ram makes our list a second time because once again he leads the NFL in snap share (88.7%), red zone touches (53), and is tied for 3rd in TDs with 11. A cornerstone piece that is featured by his brilliant coach, Kyren Williams is well worth his price tag of a 1st+.

If it hasn’t been clear yet, our RB selection focuses on five key areas: Snap Share, TDs, Red Zone Touches, Target Share, and Playoff Schedule. If there was one player that could be a league winner in defiance of our process, it would be rookie Bucky Irving. His snap share of 44% ranks him 40th in the NFL, which we do not foresee changing all that much despite Bucky outperforming Rachaad White because NFL coaches are often loyal to their vets to a fault. Additionally, Bucky’s 9.2% target share (28th), 6 TDs (18th), and 34 red zone touches (20th) do not scream “league-winning upside.” Against better judgment, Bucky Irving’s elite rushing efficiencies in several categories are hard to ignore, including elusiveness (1st), yards after contact (3rd), yards created/touch (3rd), and breakaway run rate (4th). However, the rookie RB ultimately makes our Buy List because Tampa Bay RBs are expected to score 31.1 points based upon the last month (1st, according to Winks), the Buccaneers’ offense has become extremely funneled through their RBs and Mike Evans, and Bucky has a tantalizing playoff schedule versus the Raiders, Cowboys, and Panthers. A late 1st or 2x 2nds is a fair price if you are willing to take a gamble on the electric player.

The last player on our list, whom our leadership went back and forth on the most, is Josh Jacobs. Another player who we advocated for in 2023, Josh Jacobs is having one of the best seasons of his productive career. Since entering the NFL in 2019, Jacobs has had the second most carries with 1,544, behind none other than Derrick Henry, who has 1,769 rush attempts in the past six seasons. At 5.1 evaded tackles/game (4th) and a 96.3 elusive rating (6th), Jacobs still has plenty of rushing savvy notwithstanding his heavy usage. His role on the Packers offense is ultimately the major reason why Jacobs remains a buy in 2024. With the 2nd most production on the best usage amongst RBs (according to Winks), Jacobs has the pleasure of playing for a team that runs the ball on an insane 66% neutral run rate on 1st & 2nd Downs (1st in NFL). Packers RBs are only behind the previously mentioned Buccanneers in terms of usage at 27.7 expected fantasy points. This elite usage provides enough context to look past the 16th-ranked snap share (64.1%), but it is difficult to ignore the championship matchup versus Minnesota, which ranks 1st against the run. Many players we advocated for in 2023 unfortunately disappeared when it mattered most for fantasy managers, which is why we are hesitant to fully recommend Josh Jacobs. At the end of the day, the decision of where you invest your fantasy faith is ultimately yours. Godspeed.

Works Cited

FantasyPros
Fantasy Points Data
Dynasty Berry
PFF
PlayerProfiler
NFL Week 13 Fantasy Football Rankings - The Blueprint - by Hayden Winks

https://underdognetwork.com/football/fantasy-rankings/nfl-week-13-fantasy-football-rankings-the-blueprint-2024

The Dossier

Image created by DK

WK 13 - RB Buys Of 2024

The Dossier